Dự báo nhu cầu nguồn nhân lực tập đoàn dệt may việt nam giai đoạn 2020 2025 tầm nhìn đến năm 2030

Du" bao nhu cau nguon nhan li/c
Tap doan Det May Viet Nam
giai doan 2020-2025
tam nhin den nam 2030
TA VAN CANH*

Tom tSt
Qudn ly dff bdo Id mdt trong nhffng khia cgnh chu ye'u cua "chdt lugng todn dien" trong cdc
hogt ddng qudn ly nguon nhdn luc. Nghien cffu thuc hiin hoi quy luye'n linh theo chudi thdi
gian cho du bdo nhu cdu ngudn nhdn Itxc tgi Tap dodn Del May Viet Nam (Vlnatex). Dong thdi,
sff dicing phuang phdp phdn tich chuyin dich ty trgng (Shift-Share Analysis - SSA) di do ludng
tdc dgng tff chuyen djch ca cd'u lao dgng vd thay ddi ndng sud't lao ddng trong ndi ngdnh del
may trong bdi cdnh cudc Cdch mang Cong nghiep 4.0 (CMCN4.0) de kiem nghiim lgi dubdo.
Kit qud nghiin cffu dUa ra dff bdo, lao ddng lgi cdc doanh nghiip thudc Vinatex co xu hudng
gidm ddn, trong khi ca cdu lao ddng co su dich chuyen mgnh tff lao ddng gidn dan sang lao
dgng ky thudt do yeu cdu cua CMCN 4.0; dong thdi xdc nhdn, CMCN 4.0 co ldm dnh hudng
di'n lao dgng ngdnh del may noi chung, luy nhiin mffc do tdc dgng den bii'n dgng nhdn luc
khong qud ldn.
Tff khoa: CMCN 4.0, ngdnh det may. nguon nhdn lffc, Vinatex
Summary
Prediction is one of the key aspects of "comprehensive quality " in human resource management.
This research carries out linear regression using lime series data lo forecasi demand for
human resource at Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex). Also, shift-share
analysis (SSA) is employed to measure the impaci of labor restructuring and changes in
labor productivity in the textile and garment industry in the context of the Fourth Industrial
Revolution to verify the forecast. The resuU Indicates that labors In enterprises under Vinatex
tends to decrease, while labor structure witnesses a strong shift from simple labor to technical
labor due to requirements of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The outcome also confirms
that the Revolution has an impact on labors in textile and garment industry in general bul the
Infiuence on manpower fluctuations is not too large.
Keywords: the Fourth Industrial Revolution, textile and garment industry, human resources. Vinatex

G\(J\ THIEU
Nganh ddt may Viet Nam ndi chung
va Vinatex ndi rieng da va dang ddng
g6p nhieu vao sff phdt trid'n kinh te' xa hdi cua dd't nffde. Trong nhieu ndm,
kim ngach xud't kha'u nganh del may
ludn dffng diff hai, chi sau nganh dien tu"
(Thudn, 2018) va chid'm ty trpng xa'p xi
15% tdng GDP ca nffdc (VIRAC, 2019).
Ve nhdn Iffc so vdi cac nganh cdng
nghiep khdc, edng nghiep ddt may la
ngdnh cd sd Iffdng lao ddng nff chie'm

da sd (trdn 80%), ddng thdi ty Id lao dong cd trinh dp
pho' thdng chffa qua dao tao Idn (xa'p xi 70%). Ddy la
mot dde thu cua ngdnh, do ddt may dffdc coi la ddng
lffc nguydn mlu cua thdi ky tien edng nghiep d cac
nffdc phdt trie'n va dang phat trien (Natsuda, Goto vd
Thoburn, 2010) vdi may mdc, trang thid't bi va edng
nghd san xua't tffdng dd'i lacjiau.
Ngay nay, vdi sffphdt tnen manh me eua cdng nghd
thdng tin, internet, mang khdng day yd tff ddng hda, sff
ke't hdp giffa ehung da tao ndn cdn sd't dffdc goi la cudc
CMCN 4.0 da ddn de'n su\ dodn rang robot se thay the'
de'n 86% lao ddng nganb ddt may hidn nay (Chang va
Huynh. 2016) va do dd se cd thay dd'i ldn ve cd cau lao

*TS., Trffdng Dai hgc Cong nghiep Det May Ha Hoi
Nga\ nhdn bdi; 28/05/2020: Ngd\ phdn hien: 20/6/2020; Ngdy duyet ddng • 25/6/2020

dpng eua ngdnh nay. Ne'u dieu nay la sff thffc, thi se Id
thdch thffc ldn ve lao ddng dd'i vdi nganh va nen kinh
ti. Bdi, nganh ddt may dffdc coi la mpt trong ba ITnh
vffe phat trie'n trpng did'm cua Chinh phii, dffdc cu the
hda trong Quye't dinh sddS/QD-TTg, ngay 18/01/2017
cua Thu tffdng Cbinh phu ve cdng nghiep ho trd va
Quyd'tdinh sd3218/QD-BCT, ngay 11/04/2014 cua Bp
Cdng Thffdng ve vide phe duyet Quy hoach phat trien
ngdnh edng nghidp det may Vidt Nam de'n nam 2020,
tam nhin de'n nam 2030.
Ddnh gid tde ddng cua CMCN 4.0 den nganh ddt
may, xem xet mffe dp anh hffdng bid'n ddng nhu cau
nhan lffc, tff dd cd nhffng khuydn nghi chinh sach phil
hdp de tao the^chu ddng trong ffng phd, mang tinh cd'p
thid't. Nghien cffu di tff mdt quy md nhd hdn Id dff bao
nhu c^u ngudn nhan lffc tai Vinatex, de suy rpng cho
nhu cau lao ddng nganh det may Viet Nam ndi ehung,
c a SCf LY THUYET VA PHL/ONG PHAP
NGHIEN CLfU
Cd sof ly thuyd't
Dff bdo nhu cau nhan lffc la viec dffa trdn phan tich
cdc md'i lidn hd qua lai giffa nhu c^u nhan lffc vdi cdc
ye'u td ed lien quan, tren cd sd quan sat tinh quy luat
va dinh hffdng trong tffdng lai. Ngffdi ta thffdng dffa
vdo cdc md hinh kinh td' Iffdng dd' dff bdo tdng nhu cau
nhan lffc cho cac nganh hoae eho tffng nganh kinh te.
Nhffng nghidn cffu ve nhu cau nhdn lffc va nghidn cdh
v^ ly thuyd't dff bdo da hinh thanh nen mdt so md hinh
dff bao ve nhu cau nhan lffc trong dai han va ngan ban,
tieu bieu cd mdt sd'md hinh diT bao sau:

- Md hinh Lotus (dffde xay dffng dffa trdn md hinh
kinh te' vT md lidn nganh do nhdm Infomm (nhdm
nghien cffu thudc Dai hpc Maryland cua My) thffc hien
va hien dang trd giup cho Viet Nam (Cue Viec lam, Bd
Lao dpng - Thffdng binh va Xa hdi) tff nam 2009. He
thd'ng md hinh hda eiia md hinh nay cd tinh cha't dai
han, cd the dff bdo cho 10 nam hoae xa hdn cho tffdng
lai eua nen kinh te' va thi trffdng lao ddng,
- Md hinh ca sd BLS do Cue Thd'ng kd lao ddng cua
My (US. Bureau of Labor Statistics | thffc hidn. Day
la md hinh dff bao mang tinh vT md da nganh, dffdc
chia thanh 6 bffdc thffc hien: Lffc Iffdng lao dpng; Tdng
trffdng kinh td'chung; Cau san pham trong nffdc (GDP)
chia theo nganh; Dau ra - dau vao; Nhan lffc theo
nganh; Nhdn lffc theo nghe. Mdi thdnh phan dffdc giai
quye't tuan Iff. vdi kd't qua cua tffng yd'u td'dau vdo cho
cac thanh phan kd' tid'p va vdi mpt so' ke't qua cho phep
quay trd Iai bffdc trffdc dd. Mdt trong nhffng thd' manh
cua md hinh BLS Id ke'l qua dff bdo cbi tid't cho cdc
nganh va nghe nghidp, dieu nay dac biet hffu ieh khi
dff bdo cho nhdm nganh. nghe cu the,
- Md hinh lER (The Institute of Employment Rights
- UK) do Vien ve Quyen cua Ngffdi lao ddng cua Anh
thffc hidn. Ve phffdng phdp ludn, md hinh nay cd ban
gid'ng md hinh BLS cua My. Die'm khac ciia md hinh
nay la phdn lich chi tie't hdn. chu y hdn tdi nhu cau theo

234

nghd, dao tao theo vung mien va gidi tinh

(khi lao ddng nam hoac nff khong the thay
thd'eho nhau do ydu cau nghd nghidp).
- Md hinh lAB do Vidn Nghidn cffu
Viec lam eua Dffc thffc hidn. Diem khdc
bidt eua md hinh nay la trong dff bao Iffe
Iffdng lao ddng cd tinh dd'n cac dac tinh,
nhff: ngffdi lao ddng dang lam vide, gia
nhap mdi. hoae iao ddng di cff, nhap cff,
dan sdvd ty Id diam gia lffc Iffdng lao dpng.
Ve ly thuyd't, edc md hinh dff bao
deu dffa trdn 2 phffdng phap dinh Iffdng
va dinh tinh. Phffdng phap dinh Iffdng
sff dung mdt so' md hinh todn hoc xde
dinh quy ludt bid'n dpng theo thdi gian
va theo cdc ye'u to' dd' dff bdo mdt cdch
djnh Iffdng mffc do, ty le cua qud trinh
hay hidn tffdng trong tffdng lai. Phffdng
phap dff bad dinh tinh dffdc thffc hidn
thdng qua viec phdn tich xu thd'ddc trffng
van dpng eiia hien tffdng, tff dd cho cdc
dff bao cd tinh xu thd'. Trdn thffc te, md
hinh dff bao thffdng dffa trdn cdc phffdng
phdp chuydn gia, phffdng phap thd'ng kd,
kinh te' Iffdng va md hinh can bang tdng
the (CGE).
Phffdng phap nghien cihi
Nghidn cffu sff dung mo hinh Lotus
(Long - Term Occupation and Traning
Utilization System) dd' thifc hien cdc dff
bdo dai ban: vdi Dau vao la cdc so lieu

kinh te' vl md. Bang Vdo Ra, sd' Udu ve
lffc Iffdng lao ddng nganh ddt may vd Dau
ra la lao ddng cd vide lam trong ngdnh,
ly le tha't nghiep trong tffdng lai. Md hinh
Lotus dff bdo eho 10 nam hodc xa hdn
cho tffdng lai cua tang trffdng nganh dpt
may va thi trffdng lao ddng nganh del
may Viet Nam. Tdm die'm eua md hinh
nay la nhu cau lao dpng eua nganh va
nhffng yeu cau ve dao tao de phat trien
ngudn cung ffng lao dpng can thie't ddp
ffng nhffng nhu cdu dd. Md hinh chii y
den ky nang nghe ciia lao ddng, de xdc
dinh ndi nao thffa, ndi nao thie'u cdc loai
lao ddng cd ky nang nha't dinh. Md hinh
cung de xua't mot pham vi phdn tich rpng
cho cac van de lao ddng trong npi nganh,
nhffng anh hffdng ciia chinh sdch kinh td'
vT md khdc nhau.
Nghien cffu nay sff dung ddng thdi ca
2 phffdng phdp dinh Iffpng va dinh tinh
de dffa ra cae dff bdo vd nhu cau nguon
nhdn lffc ciia Vinatex va suy rpng ra cho
todn nganh det may Viei Narn. Phffdng
phdp dinh Iffdng hdi quy luyen linh theo
chudi thdi gian cho dff bdo nhu cau ngudn
nhan lffc Vinatex giai doan 2020-2025


dinh hffdng dd'n nam 2030. Ddng thdi,

diing phffdng phdp SSA kiem nghiem lai
dff bao vdi gia dinh Vinatex ffng dung
CMCN 4.0 vdo sdn xua't.
Vide lffa chpn dia ban nghien ciJu khi
su" dung 2 phffdng phap la hdi quy theo
chudi thdi gian vd ngoai suy ham xu thd'
d^ dff bao ve nhu cau nguon nhan lffc Id
rd^t quan trpng, nd lien quan dd'n kd't qua
Clia nghien cffu. Vide lffa chpn Vinatex
Idm dia ban nghien effu dffde can cff vao:
Thff nhdt, day la tap doan ldn, tap
trung nhieu doanh nghidp hang dau trong
nganh det may cd nffdc.
Thff hai, cac doanh nghiep cua Vinatex
bao gom du ca cdc doanh nghidp sdi, det,
nhudm va may cd thd dai didn cho nganh
det may Viet Nam.
Thd ba. dd' cd the' van dung CMCN
4.0 vao doanh nghidp, thi dieu kien la
doanh nghidp dd du manh ve tdi chinh va
quan tri. Do do, chi cd cdc doanh nghiep
\dn mdi cd the' ddp ffng dffdc nhffng ydu
cau nay, trong khi Vinatex quan Iy nhieu
doanh nghidp Idn eiia nganh det may,
ndn chpn Vinatex la hdp ly (Bdi vii'l sff
dting cdch vie't so thdp phdn theo chudn
qudc li).
KET QUA NGHIEN CUU

BANG 1: GIA TRI S A N X O A T CAC Mv^T HANG CHU YEO

CUA VINATEX

/

TT
1
2
3
4
5
Tong gia tri

Sanph^m
Sdi
Vdi
May
Khan
KhSc

GUtnCVND)
8,162.5
2,456.7
33,342.0
1.494.4
3.744 4
49,200 0

HINH 1: C d CACI TRIMH DQ LAO DQNG KY T H U A T
TAl VINATEX

—M

•h
• TC/Cao ding

• Dal hoE

Mguon Ket qua khao sat,2019
BANG 2: CCJ GAG LAO DQNG PHAN THEO CHCTC NANG

TT
A
1
2
3
B

Lo^i Iao dOng trong doanh nghiap
Doanh ngtii^p si^i, det, nhuOm
Can bo quan ly
Can bo ky thual
Cong nhan ky thuiit
Doanh nghiep may va thcfi trang
Can bo quan ly
Can bfl ky thual
Cong nhanky thuat

TJIô(%)
13
22

65

Thd'ng kd md ta mĐu
Vinatex la mdt tap dodn ldn trong
7
ngdnh ddt may Vidt Nam. Hien nay. Tap
5
2
dodn quan ly 45 ddn vi thanh vien, trong
88
3
do cd 24 tdng cdng ty va edng ty may,
iNguon Ket qua khao sat 2 0 1 '
nhff: Tdng Cdng ty May 10, Tong Cdng
ly May Dffc Giang, Tdng Cdng ty May
BANG 3: THONG KE NHAN L^fC TAP DOAN QUA CAC NAM
Hda Thp, Tdng Cong ty May Hffng Ydn,
Td'ng Cdng ty May Nhd Be, Tdng Cdng
Lao d$ng cu6i nSm
Lao d$ng dSu niiin
Nfim
ty cd phan May Vidt Tid'n,,. Vinatex cdn
93,605
94.449
2011
quan ly hdn 12 doanh nghidp ldn san
97,449
77.236
2012
xua't vd kinh doanh sdi, nhff: Td'ng Cdng

7«.911
77,236
2013
ty Cd phan Sdi Phu Bai, Tdng Cdng ty
79,361
83.790
2014
Viet Thang hoac Tdng Cong ty Co phan
80,330
85.921
2015
Phong Phu va trdn 10 cdng ty ve ddt vai
83.617
83,135
2016
khde, vdi tong sd'lao ddng trdn 80 nghin
83,782
79.798
2017
ngffdi (Vinatex, 2016, 2017, 2018).
83,625
82.353
2018
Cdc mat hdng san xua't eiia Vinatex
80.626
78,909
2019
bao gdm: sdi, vdi, hang may mac, khan
va cdc sdn pha'm khac. Trong dd, cac
doanh nghiep may va sdi ddng gdp

doanh thu nhilu nha't eho td'ng gid tri san ldn nha't vao doanh thu Tap doan, nhffng ty le lao ddng
ed trinh dp phd thdng lai chid'm xa'p xi 90%, edn lao
xua't cua Tap doan (Bang 1).
Ve cd ca'u nhan lffc, Hinh 1 cho thay. ddnf cd trinh dp dai hpc va trdn dai hpc chi chid'm dffdi
lao dpng phd thdng chid'm da so' trong ta't 7%. Dieu nay dffdc Iy giai bdi nganh may dffdc chia
cd cac nhdm ngdnh cua Vinatex. Ddng ldm nhieu cdng doan. mdi cdng doan ehi thffc hien mot
chii y la nganh may cd gia tri ddng gdp so thao tde gian ddn lap lai. do do lao ddng chi can

!

Economy and Forecast Re\]e

235


HiNH 2: KET QGA H 6 | QGY CGA SO LG'ONG LAO DQNG QGA CAC NAM
TWng ke bdi quy

^

R

0.5611013

R-

0.4126144

R-dieu chinh

0.1634028

Sai .so chuan hoa

5.7170571

Bien quan sat

18
ANOVA
df

SS

Hoi quy

1

P h k dif
Tong

16
17

Sai so
mngsg diuan
t
hoa
He so'
chan 88.964771 2.811433 31,64393

TT

MS

F
Y nghta F
141.2116 141 2116 4 320412 0.054108
522.9559 32 68474
664.1674

P

Dirdi
95%

Tren
95%

Dirdi
95%

Tren
95%

7,4436 83 0(M-8 94 92474 83 0048 94 92474

-0J398688 0.259732 -2 07856 0.054108 -1 09048 0.010739 -1.09048 0 010739
BANG 4: KET QUA HOI QGY TGYEN TINH

TT Nam

KJ. S« LB (1.000) MA (2) CMA (2) It

1 2011

94

94

2

93

85

3 2012

77

87

4

97

88

5 2013

78

78

6

77

80

7 2014

83

8

79
85

81
82

9 2015
10

80

82

1] 2016
12

83

84

84

82

13 2017

79

83

14

83

8]
82

15 2018

81

82

16

83

82

17 2019

81
78

80

18
19 2020

SI
Tt
Ds
Di/bio
89.250 1 05 0 98 95.484 88.425 87 0503
86.000 1.08 1.03 90 536 87.885 90.2773
87.250 0.88 0.98 78216 87.345 85.9873

82.500 1.18 1.03 94 430 86.805 89.1682
78 750 0.99 0.98 79.232 86.265 84.9244
80 500 0.96 1.03 74.960 85.726 88 059
81.500 I 02 0.98 84.311 85.186 83.8614
82.250 0.96 1 03 76.907 84.646 86.9499
82.000 1.04 0.98 86.342 84.106 82.7984
82.500 0.97 103 77.880 83.566 85.8408
82 500 1 01 0 98 84.311 83.026 81.7355

81 250 1.03 1.03 81.774 82 486 84.7317
81 946 80.6725
81 407 83.6225

81.500 0.97 0.98 80 248
82.000 1.01 1.03 80.801
82.000 0.99 0.98 82.279
80.750 1.03 1.03 80.801

80.867 79.6096
80.327 82.5134

0.98 82.279 79.787 78.5466
103 75.933 79 247 81.4043
0 98
78.707 77.4837

20

1.03

21 2021

0.98

77.628 76.4207

22

1.03

23 2022

0 98

77.088 79 186
76.548 75.3578
76.008 78.0769

24

1.03

25 2023

0.98

26

1.03

27 2024

0.98

28

1 03
0.98

29 2025
30

1.03

2

236

78.167 80 2951

75 468 74 2948
74.928 76.9678
74.388 73.2319
73.848 75.8586
73.309 72 1689
72.769 74 7495

dffdc ddo tao tai chd trong khoang thdi
gian nha't dinh id cd the thffc hidn dffpc.
Bay cung la cd sd de quan tam dd'n vide
lao dpng ndy se bi thay thd' bdi robot
(CMCN 4.0) va nd'u doanh nghidp thffc
hidn dieu nay, thi nhu eau lao dpng cd
the se giam di rat nhieu.
Lao ddng cua Tdp dodn dffdc phan
theo chffc nang d Bang 2, theo do cd
ca'u lao dpng la quan ly nganh sdi, del,
nhudm cao hdn ty Id lao ddng Id quan ly
nganh may xd'p xi 2 Ian (13% so vdi 7%).

Nhan lffc cua Vinatex bid'n dpng theo
cac nam (Bang 3). Nhin chung. sdlffdng
nhdn lffc cd xu hffdng giam qua cdc nam
(tff 2011-2019), lao ddng cudi nam vd
lao ddng ddu nam deu cd sff chenh lech
nhd't dinh, Dff lidu thd'ng ke Bang 3 se
Id cd sd de dff bdo lao ddng cua Vinatex
giai doan 2020-2025.
H& quy tiiy6n tuih theo chu^ thoS ^an
Cac thanh phan bie'n so' cua hdm hdi
quy dffdc dat ten nhff sau:
- Bie'n MA (Moving Average) la bie'n
he so' trffpt trung binh ve so Iffdng lao
dpng qua cac nam.
Bie'n CMA {Centered Moving
Average) Id he sd' trffdt trung binh trung
tam nham xdc dinh gid tri trung binh giffa
hai gid tn ben nhau.
- Bid'n St, It la bie'n thanh phan theo
miia (Seasonal component) va bid'n bat
thffdng ([regular component) gia tri hai
bid'n nay Id cd sd de dff bao xu hffdng.
- Bid'n Ds (Deseasonalize) la bid'n
tdch gia tri theo mua, loai bd bd't thffdng
It, hay ndi each khdc Ioai trff cdc diem
phu thupc theo thdi diem de tap trung
vao xu hffdng dff bao chinh.
- Tt la bid'n xu hffdng la phffdng trinh
tuyd'n tinh giffa sd Iffdng lao dpng va
thdi gian.

Bid'n dff bdo chinh Id ke't qua tich hdp
giffa cac bid'n tren sau khi da Ioai bd
nhffng ba't thffdng.
Kdt qua cho tha'y. cd moi quan he
tuyd'n tinh giffa bien "Nam" vd bie'n "Sd
Iffdng lao ddng" tai p = 0.054108; quan
he tuyen tinh nghich tai t = - 0.5398688
(t< 0), hay ndi cdch khdc Id cff .sau moi
nam, thl lao ddng cd xu hffdng giam di
(Hinh 2).
Ket qua dff bdo Bang 4 cho tha'y, dff
lieu dff bdo cang ve ,sau cang gan dat dd'n
dp chinh xac. Ld'y gid tri tff nam 2016
trd lai da\. thi dff lieu dff bdo cd the tin
cay dffdc (Bang 3) vdi sai sdcd the cha'p
nhan dffpc (tdi da p = <0.05). Nhu" vay


sau 5 nam nQa so lao dpng cua Tdp doan
giam xud'ng cdn xa'p xi 75 nghin lao dpng
hodc 72 nghin lao ddng tffdng ffng vdi
giam 6% hodc 10%.
Dff bao ngoai suy v ^ gia dinh Vinatex
ihig dung CMCN 4.0 vao san xuS't
Trdn cd sd suy ludn vdi cdn cff dffa
tren cdc bid'n sd' lidn quan de'n nhu cau
lao dpng, d^ tff dd dffa ra dff bdo ve nbu
cau nhan lffc nham dap ffng cac chi tieu
de ra cua doanh nghiep. Ddy la hinh thffc
suy didn cd dp ehinh xdc dang dn cay

thffdng dp dung trong mdi trffdng bid'n
dgng va khdng tudn theo quy ludt.
Vdi edc chi tidu nen tang, nhff: Gia tn
san xua't; Kim ngach xua't kh^u; Doanh
thu ket hdp vdi thd'ng kd phan loai lao
dpng va phdng va'n quan sdt tai doanh
nghidp, vdi gia dinh ty Id ffng dung
CMCN 4.0 theo cac ty le khac nhau
tiiy theo linh vffc va dde diem loai hinh
doanh nghidp, sau khi tinh toan cho ra
kd't qua dff bao so' lieu cac chi tidu eua
Vinatex nhff Bang 5.
Bang 5 eho tha'y, viec ffng dung thanh
tffu CMCN 4.0 vdo cac nhdm ngdnh spi,
ddt, nhudm va may cdng cao, thi ty Id lao
dong giam di tffdng ffng, O day can lffu y
rang, nganh sdi la nganh cd cd hdi ffng
dung CMCN 4.0 eao nha't, vi nhieu cdng
vide lap di lap lai, hidn dang van hdnh
he thd'ng may tff ddng va ban tff dong.
Theo tinh todn, hidn nay, ty le cac nhd
mdy sdi ffng dung thanh tffu CMCN 4.0
cdn rd't ban ehe', ehu yd'u d mffe ffng dung
tff ddng hda, chff chffa thffc sff cd sff dieu
hanh qua he thd'ng mdy chu, giao tid'p
qua mang khdng day, cdc robot tff hanh,
tri tue nhan tao trong vide kie'm tra chat
Iffdng san ph^m.
Nganh may rat khd ffng dung CMCN
4.0 do dac thil san pham. Mac du cd

Robot Sewbo cd the may ao Tshirt hoan
toan tff dpng, tuy nhien dd'i vdi cac san
pham may nhieu ldp vdi cde dffdng cong
khdng theo quy luat, thi chffa cd he thd'ng
may mdc cd the Iam dffdc vide nay, ngoai
trff ban tay con ngffdi. Ke't qua phdng
va'n tff lanh dao cdc doanh nghidp ldn.
nhff: Tdng Cdng ty May 10, Tong Cdng
ty Co phan May Nha Be, Tong Cdng ty
Cd phan Ddt may Hda Thp, Tong Cdng
ty May Dffc Giang cho tha'y, cac doanb
nghidp may tff nay dd'n nam 2030 chi cd
the ffng dung td'i da CMCN 4.0 d mffc
20%. Hay ndi cdch khac, chi ed 20%
cong doan san xua't dffdc tff dpng hda
dieu khien bdi robot va cdc he thd'ng tinh

Economy and Forecasi Review

BANG 5: KET QGA Dd BAO NGOAI SGY TRONG DIEU KlgN
CO dNG DPNG CMCN 4.0 CGA VINATEX
Chi tifeu/Nam

2020

2025

Ghichu

2030

Muc tieu doanh thu diT
Gia Iri san xuai cong
kiSn (tang xap xi 10%46,258,3 55,198,0 67,156.8
nghiep (Ty VND)
21%/nam) then tinh loan
ve nha may thong minh
Kim ngach xuat khau
(Tneu USD)
Doanh thu (Ty VND)

2.987-00 3.957.50 5,050,90
50,922,00 66,216.50 88.612 60
Mu'c do tac dong cua CMCN
4 0 den nganh del may/nha
may thong minh

MUe do tiJdong hoa theo
CMCN 4 0

10%

30%

Cd scf lay ty 1^ % diTa tren
khao sdl thyc trang ve cong
70% nghe - (if dong h6a va xu the
tif dgng h6a cua CMCN 4.0

D^i v^ nganh det- nhuom

5%

15%

40%

D6'i vdi nganh may

2%

10%

17,510

14,271

Do'i vdl nganh sdi

Lao dong trong cac DN
sdl (ngirdi)
Lao dong trong cac DN
del, nhuom (ngu'di)

20,798

17,678

Lao dong trong cac DN
may (ngu'di)

41,958

37,762

Tong so' lao d^ng tai
cac doanh nghiep

80,266

69,711

20%
Dff lieu du'dc tinh toan co
11,417 tinh de'n he so tang tru'dng
binh quan hieu qui lao
dong, miJc lao dong can c6
15,027 de dap iJng muc lieu kim
ngach xuat khau gap 2 lan
39,650 nam 2020 va he so' iftig
dung cong ngh^ 4.0
66,094

xao khdc, nhff: thffc tai do (Virtual Reality) bode tang
effdng thffc td' (Augmented Reahty). Do vay, ty Id lao
ddng bi giam di khdng qua Idn nhff cdc dff bao eua eae
tae gia trffdc dd.
Can cff vao cd cd'u lao ddng (Bang 2) va ke't qua dff
bao (Bang 4 va Bang 5), de eho ra kd't qud dffbao vdi gid
dinb Vinatex ffng dung CMCN 4.0 vao san xua't. Bang

6 cho tha'y, ty Id can bo quan ly ve cd ban khong thay
ddi, tuy nhien ty Id can bd ky thuat va ty Id lao ddng trffc
tid'p cd sff thay doi idn theo tffng giai doan. Cu the, ne'u
dau nbiSig nam 2020, ly le edn bd ky thudt (nhffng ngffdi
dffdc dao tao bai ban ve ehuydn mdn va ky thuat) tff
22% dd'i vdi sdi, del, nhudm va 5% ddi vdi may, thi de'n
nhffng nam 2030, so'lffdng nay tang ldn 45% dd'i vdi sdi,
35% dd'i vdi del, nhudm va 25% dd'i vdi may. Nhff vdy,
sau 10 ndm, cd ca'u lad ddng nganh det may cua Vinatex
chuyen dan tff lao ddng gian ddn sang lao dpng ky thuat
(xa'p xi 50% dd'i vdi nganh sdi; 35% dd'i vdi del nhudm
vd 25% do'i vdi may). Dieu nay phan dnh rdng, CMCN
4.0 doi hdi ngffdi lao dpng can phai nang eao lay nghe.
can dffdc dao tao bai ban de dap ffng ydu cau ve cdng
nghd va td'c dp ddpffngddi vdi khach hang.
Ve sd' Iffdng Iao ddng. dff bao dd'n nam 2030 so' lao
dpng cua Vmatex se giam xudng xa'p xi 82'/; so vdi
hien nay (66.094 so vdi 80.266) do viec day manh ffng
dung cac thanh tffu eua CMCN 4,0, trong do mpt sd
cdng vide gian ddn. cd tinh lap lai sd dffdc thffe hien
bdi robot va cae he ihd'ng Iff dpng khae.

237


BAMG 6: Dff BAO CO CAQ LAO DONG VIMATEX DEN 2 0 3 0
2010
Can bp Kl

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KET LUAN
So' Iffdng lao dpng eua Vinatex cd xu hffdng giam
dan theo tffng nam, Mac dii hai phffdng phdp thffc hidn
khdc nhau ve gdc dd tid'p can, vide dff bdo deu cho ke't
qua tffdng dffdng nhau, xet ve phffdng didn sut giam
nhu cau lao ddng.
- O phffdng phdp thff nha't, dffa vao xu thd'thay ddi
qua eae nam vd cac bid'n dpng ba't thffdng cho ke't qua,
lao ddng giam xa'p xi 10% sau 5 nam, ddng nghTa vdi
vide giam mdi nam xa'p xi 1.600 lao ddng, trong bd'i
canh khdng cd bie'n dpng ldn ve mat kinh te' - xa hpi,
nhff: cac dai dich hoac suy thoai kinh te'ba't thffdng,
- Vdi phffdng phdp thff hai, gia dinh vide ffng dung
eae thdnh tffu CMCN 4.0, thi sd'lao ddng cd xu hffdng

giam nhieu hdn (69,711 lao ddng so vdi 74,7495 lao
ddng). Tuy vdy, sff chenh lech ndy la khdng ldn, bdi
khdng phai doanh nghidp nao cung ed du kha nang
ffng dung CMCN 4.0 trong vdng 5 nam tdi, xet ca ve

Ty

So

Tylt

ry

So

CNKT
So

Tylf

%

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13

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ClibfKT

ClibvQL

c"»nbnKT~

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20.109
e«.094

39.571

mdt tdi chinh, cdng nghe va nhan sff van
hdnh. Hdn nffa, ke cd kich ban ffng dung
manh me CMCN 4.0 vao nam 203(J, thi
ty Id lao ddng chi giam xudng td'i da
bang 80% so vdi bidn nay. Bdi, doanh
nghidp ludn dat chi tidu tang trffdng v |
nang suat, doanh thu, kim ngach xuat
khau va do dd, nhu cau lao ddng ludn d
mffc eao.
Nghien cffu chffng mmh rdng, cho dii
cde doanh nghidp del may cd ffng dung
CMCN 4.0 d mffc nao di nffa. thi ty Id lao
ddng bi suy giam cung khdng ldn, nhff

mdt sd bdo cao da cdng bd' trffdc dd. Hdn
nffa, viec ffng dung CMCN 4.0 cung can
ed Id trinh dad tao ve nhdn lffc va vi vay,
sd khdng ed sff thay ddi hdng loat, sdlao
ddng hien cd se dffdc dao tao chuyen doi
va thich nghi vdi CMCN 4.0,0

TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Bd Cdng Thffdng (2008). Quye't dinh sd 39/2008/QD-BCT, ngdy 23/10/2008 phe duyet Chffang
trinh ddo tgo ngudn nhdn lffc ngdnh Del May Viel Nam din ndm 2015, tam nhin den ndm 2020
2. Vinatex (2016-2018). Bdo cdo thudng nien cdc ndm. tff ndm 2016 di'n 2018
3. VIRAC (2019), Bdo cdo Tieu chudn Ngdnh Del may VietNam Ql/2019
4. VIRAC (2019), Bdo cdo chuyen sdu ngdnh del may. Industry Reports: Cdng ty Co phan Nghidn
cffu Nganh va Tff vd'n Viet Nam - Singapore Branch
5. Tran Xuan Cau, Mai Qud'c Chanh (2008). Gido trinh kinh te ngudn nhdn lffc, Nxb Dai hpc
Kinh te' Qud'c dan
6. Thudn, L. H. (2018). Thay ddi di bid phd Bdo cdo ngdnh del may. In FPT Securities
7. Phd Thi Kim Chi (2012). Mot so phuang phdp dff bdo ngudn nhdn lUc d Viet Nam, truy cap tff
http://\vww.dubaonhanluchcme.gov.vn/tin-tuc/l8l9.mot-so-phuong-phap-du-bao-nguon-nhan-luco-viet-nam.html
8. Jae-Hee Chang and Phu Huynh (2016). ASEAN in transformation the future of jobs at risk of
automation. International Labour Organization
9. Natsuda, K., Goto. K.. and Thoburn, J. (2010). Challenges to the Cambodian garment industry
in the global garment value chain. The European Journal of Development Research. 22(4). 469-493
10. Tracey, William R., Ed. (1994). Human Resources Management and Development Handbook.
Second Edition. AMACOM
11. Wright. P M., McMahan, G. C . and McWilliams, A. (1994). Human resources and sustained
competitive advantage a resource-based perspective. Internalional journal of human resource
management, 5(2). 301-326

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