Đặc điểm hộ nghèo ở việt nam phân tích mô hình logit với số liệu điều tra mức sống dân cư VHLSS 2016

DAC DIEM HO NGHEO O VIET NAM:
PHAN TICH MO HINH LOGIT
VOil SO LIEU DIEU TRAMLfC SONG
DAN CUVHLSS

2016
NGUYEN NGOCTOAN*

Trong nhung thap ky qua, Viet Nam da dat duac nhung thanh tuu Idn trong giam ngheo
gan lien vdi ket qua tang trudng va phat trien kinh ti.Tyle ngheo doi tmh theo chuan
ngheo cua Tong cue thong ke va Ngan hang The gidi giim xuong 9,8% so vdi mdc 20,7%
trong nam 2010. Khoang 70% dan so Viet Nam dugc coi la an toan ve kinh te va 13%
duac xep vao tang ldp trung luu toan cau^. Tuy nhien, nhiem vu giam ngheo nhdng nam
tdi rat thach thdc do nhung hg chua thoat ngheo cdn lai la nhung hg kho thoat ngheo
nhat. De giup hg ngheo thoat ngheo, can phii xac dinh nhung dac diem cua nhom hg
nay. Bai viet tap trung phan tich ve cac dac diem cua hg ngheo d Viet Nam.
TCr khda: hg ngheo, dac diem hd ngheo
Over the past decades, Vietnam has achieved great success in poverty reduction associated
with economic growth and development. The poverty rate calculated following poverty line
of the General Statistics Office and the World Bank dropped to 9.8% compared to 20.7% in
2010. About 70% of Vietnam's population is considered as economically safe and 13% are
classified as global middle class^. However, the task of reducing poverty in the coming years
is very challenging because the remaining households who have not escaped from poverty
line are the most difficult ones to escape from poverty. To help these poor households escape
from poverty line, it is necessary to identify the characteristics of this group. The paper focuses on analyzing the characteristics of poor households in \^etnam.
Keywords: poor households, characteristics of poor households
Ngaynhan: 1 4 - 1 1 - 2 0 1 8

Ngay phan bien danh gia: 2 8 - 1 1 - 2 0 1 8

Ngay duyet dang: 0 5 - 1 2 - 2 0 1 8

I.Datvande
tinh theo quan sat, cam nhan hoac thdng ke
Hien cd nhieu nghidn cdu phan tich vd eae dac thupc tinh don gian. Chi cd mdt vai nghien cdu
diem cua hp ngheo d nudc ta. Tdy nhien, phan dinh lugng sd dung so lieu dieu tra xa hpi
Idn eae nghien cdu nay chi ddng Iai d md ta dinh hpc.cbang han, nghien cdu cua Nguyen Thang va
__^
cpng su (2006); cua Baulch va Vu (2011), Tuy
' TS NguySn Ngoc Toan - Hgc vien Chinh tri quoc nhien, cac ngiiien edu nay sd dung bp sd lieu dieu
gia H6 ChiMmh
tra td dau nhiing nam 2000, den nay khdng cdn
cap nhat, Cdng vca su phat trien kinh te va tde dp
SO 28 (12-2018) I TAP CHf KINH TE VA Q U A N LV ] 33


THl/CTIEN-KINH NGHIEM
giam ngheo kha nhanh nhdng nam qua, tinh
hinh va dac diem cua hd ngheo d Viet Nam cd the
da cd nhieu thay doi.
Nghien cdu nay nhSm muc dich xac dinh cae
dac diem hp ngheo d Viet Nam bSng phuang
phap dinh lugng. Tae gid sd dung sd lieu eua Dieu
tra mdc sdng dan cu 2016 vdi md hinh hdi qui
nhi phan Logit vdi bien phu thude la hp ngheo
(neu ngheo bidn cd gia tri 1 va khdng ngheo cd
gia tri 0). Cae bien the hien dac diem cda hg
ngheo bao gdm nhdm eae bien nhan khau hpc,
dia diem dia ly hd eu trd, giao due, viec lam va
didu kien tiep can kdt edu ha tang. Ket qua eho
thdy, cac ydu td nhan khau hge va vi tri dia

ly,.,.anh hudng tdi kha nang mdt hp gia dinh bi
xep vao loai hd ngheo,
2, Md hinh, sd lieu va bien so
De xae dinh dinh lugng cac dac diem eua hd
ngheo, phuong phap truyen thdng la ap dung md
hinh logit nhi phan cd bidn phu thude Y vcd hai
trang thai. Md hinh Logit nhi phan dugc Berkson
(1944) gidi thieu idn ddu klii nghien cdu kdt qua
didu tri benh nhan.Trong md hinh Logit, bidn nhi
phSn Y phu thupc vao mot vector X eae bidn giai
thieh vdi gia dinh sai sd ngau niiien phan phdi logistics. Md hinh hdi qui nhi phan Logit cd phucmg
trinh nhu sau.
Prob[Y=l|X]=

1 + ^^'P

=A(Jt"P)

Trong dd, Y la bien nhi phan nhan gia tri 1
hoac gia tri 0, X la vector eac bien yeu td tac
dpng den Y va bidn kiem soat, Prob {Y=l |X) la
xae xuat de Y nhan gia tri 1 vdi dieu kien X, 3 la
vector cae tham sd, gia dinh sai sd ngau nhien
cua md hinh phan phdi logistics,
Md hinh Logit tren dugc ap dung vao phan
tich eae dae diem cda hd ngheo. Cu the, bidn phu
thugc la bidn ho ngheo cd gia tri 1 ndu la hg
ngheo va gia tri 0 neu ia hd khdng ngheo. Cac
bidn giai thieh bao gdm cac bidn dae diem cua
hd ngheo theo cac nhdm nh§n khau hpc, vi tri

dia ly, dae diem giao due, viec lam va tidp can
kdt cau ha tang.
Vdi eac bidn nhan khau hpc, nghien cdu tap

trung vao cae bien ve qui mo hd, t^ le phu thudc,
tudi chu hg cung vol cac bien nhi phan the hien
hp cd phai hp dan tgc thieu sd khong, cd d vung
ndng thdn khong, chu hp cd li di hay gda
vg/chdng bay khdng, chu hp cd phcii la nu hay
khdng. Gid thuyet dat ra la hg cd qui md Idn, ty
Ie phu thude eao, hg dan tpc thieu sd, hp vung
ndng thdn, chu hp li di hoac gda vp, chdng, ehu
hg la nu se cd xac suat ngheo cao hon.
Vdi cac bien sd ve vi tri dia ly, nghien cuu sd
dung 8 phan vung dia ly gom: Tay Bae, Ddng
Bae, Dong bSng sdng Hong, Bae Trung Bg, TSy
Nguyen, Duyen hai Nam Trung Bp, Ddng Nam
Bp va Tay Nam Bp. De md tci cac phan vung dia
ly, cac bien gia nhi phan dugc sd dung. Vdi 8
phan vung, ta ed 7 bien gia, vdi vung Dong b§ng
sdng Hong dugc sd dung lam vung ca sd.
Cac bien lien quan den giao due bao gom so
nam di hoc va cac bidn nhi phan the hien bac
hpc ma ehu hd da hoan thanh. Khdng di hpc
duoc sd dung lam thupc tinh ca sd. Gia thuyet
dat ra la trinh dd giao due cua chu bg ty le
nghich vdi xae xuat ngheo. De do ludng anh
hudng cua viec lam, nghien cdu sd dung cac
bidn nlii phan ndu chu hp lam viec ndng ngiiiep
hoac dich vu, lam khu vuc nha nudc, lam kinh

doanh ca the, kinh doanh t u nhan hoae tSp the.
Anh hudng cda sd huu dat san xuat ndng nghiep
cua hd cung dugc xem xet qua cac bidn ve dat
trong cay hang nam, cay lau nam, dat thuy san,
dat vudn.
Xae suat bp ngheo cung cd the chiu anh
hudng bdi eae dieu kien ba tang. Do khdng cd du
so lieu, nghien edu chi sd dung 3 bien sd nhi
phan do ludng tiep can cua hp viM dien ludi, nudc
may va he thdng xu ly nudc. Nhung bidn nay
khdng chi do ludng true tiep viec tidp can vcd
dien, nudc ma qua dd, gian tiep do ludng su phat
trien ha tang tai dia ban sinh sdng eua hp. Cac
bien nay dupe ky vgng se quan be ty le nghich
vdi xae xuat hg ngheo
Md hinh Logit tren dugc ude Iugng vdi sd lieu
Dieu tra mdc sdng dan eu 2016 do Tong cue
thdng ke thuc hien. Cd 9359 hp trong md hinh,
bao gdm 1092 hp ngheo va 8267 hd khdng

34 I T A P C H I K I N H T ^ V A Q U A N L Y I 5628(12-2015


Biing 1: Danh sach cac bien trong mo hinh
Ten bien
Hp ngheo 2016
Qui mo ho
Ty le phu thupc
Nil chu hp
Tuoi chd hg

Chu hp dgc than
Dan tgc thieu sd
Nong thon
Tay Bac
Dong Bac
Bac Trung Bp
Nam Trung Bg
Tay Nguyen
Dong Nam Bp
Tay Nam Eg
So nam di hpc
Tieu hgc
Trung hpc co sd
Trung hgc phd thong
Dai hgc
Lam ndng nghiep
Lam dich vu
Di tam thue
I^m nha nudc
Hg ca the
Hg tap the
Hg tu nhan
Dat cay hang nam
Dat thuy san
Dat cay lau lam
Dat vudn
Thue dat
Cho thue dat
Dien ludi
Nudc may

Xd ly nudc

Mo ta
Bien nhi phan co gia tri 1 neu la ho ngheo nam 2016 va 0 neu la ho
khong ngheo
So thanh vien trong hg gia dinh
Ty le tre em va ngudi gia tren tdng sd thanh vien cda hp
Bien nhi phan cd gi^ tri 1 neu chd hg la nu
Logarith tudi cda chu hg
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 neu chu hp da li di hoac gda vg/chdng
Bien nhi phan cd gia tri ta 1 neu chu hg la thuoc dan tpc khong phai
Kinh hoac Hoa
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 neu hp d nong thon
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 ndu hp sinh sdng d TSy Bac
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 neu hp sinh song d Dong Bac
Bien nhi phan co gia tri 1^ 1 neu hp sinh sdng d B5c Trung Bp
Bien nhj phan co gia tri la 1 neu hp sinh song d duyen hai Nam Trung Bg
Bien nhi phSn c6 gia tri la 1 ndu hp sinh sdng d Tay Nguyen
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 neu hp sinh song d Dong Nam Bg
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 neu hp sinh song d Tay Nam Bp
-So nam di hpc cua chu hg
Bien nhi phan co gia tri Ik 1 neu chu hg hpc het tieu hgc
Bien nhi phan c6 gia tn la 1 neu chu hg hoc het trung hgc co sd
Bien nhi phan c6 gia tri la 1 neu chd hg hpc het trung hgc phd thong
Bien nhi phan c6 gia tri la 1 neu chu hg c6 trinh do dai hpc trd len
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 neu chu hg lam ndng nghiep
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 neu chu hp lam dich vu
Bien nhi phan cd gia trj la 1 neu chd hp di lam thue kiem sdng
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 neu chu hp lam cho khu vuc cong
Bien nhi phan cd gia tri la 1 neu hg kinh doanh ca the

Bien nhi phan c6 gia tri la 1 neu hg kinh doanh tap the
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 neu hg kinh doanh tu nhan
Logarith dien tich dat cay hang nam cda hg
Logarith dien tich dat mat nudc san xuat thuy san cua hg
Logarith dien tich dat cay lau nam cua hp
Logarith dien tich dat vudn cua hg
Bien nhi phan cd gia tri la 1 neu hg phai di thue dat san xuat
Bidn nhi phan co gia tri Ici 1 neu hp cho thue dat s ^ xuat
Bien nhi phan cd gia tri la 1 neu hp dugc sd dung dien ludi
Bien nhi phan co gia tri la 1 neu hp dugc sd dung nudc mciy
Bien nhi phan co gia tri ta 1 neu ho co thuc hien xd ly nudc sinh hoat

S6 28 (12-2018) I TAP CH( KINH T^ VA QUAN LV | 35


THI/C T I I N - KINHJSIGJ^I|M
ngheo. Viec xae dinh hg la ngheo hay khong
ngheo dua tren tra ldi eua cae ho vdi cau hdi hg
ed dugc dia phuong xep vao dien hg ngheo nam
2016 hay khong. Thue chat eua md hinh la so
sanh thdng ke giua ho ngheo va hd khdng ngheo
de tim ra cac dae diem eua bd ngheo.
Md hinh Logit duge udc Iugng bSng phdn
mdm chuyen dung STATA 12.0
3.Phantidiketqui
Bdng 2 trinh b^y ket qua udc Iugng mo binh
Logit md hinh tren. Cac kdt qua dugc danh dau
{*) la ede kdt qua cd y nghla thdng ke d mdc dp
khac nhau. Cac he sd cd dau duong ham y quan
he ty le thuSn vdi xac suat hp ngheo va ngugc

lai, ddu Sm the hien ty le nghich. Luu y rang,
khae vdi hdi quy tuyen tinh da bien (OLS), eac
gia tri tham sd thu dugc cua md hinh hoi qui
Logit khdng the hien true tiep quan hd giua bien
so va xae suat hp ngheo ma the hien quan he
gida bien sd vdi ty sd log-odd, qua do quan he
giantieptdi xac suat hg ngheo.
Ket qua d Bang 2 eho thay kha nang hp duge
xep loai ngheo phu thugc vao nhieu dae diem.
Trude het, hd cd ty le phu thupc cao cd xu hudng
la hp ngheo. Day la dieu de hieu va eung thudng
dugc eoi la mdt trong nhung nguyen nhan gay
ngheo, bdi vi hd ed nhieu con nhd hoac ngucd gia
thi so ngucri di lam phai ganh nhieu ngudi phu
thupc hem, Hd cd ehu bp Ii di hoac gda vg, chdng
hay ehu hp don than eung dd trd thanh hd ngheo
bdi thidu lao ddng chinh tao ra thu nhap. Ket qua
eung eho thay tudi ehu hp ty le nghieb vdi xac
xuat hp ngheo. Cd nghla la, chu hp Idn tudi hon
tiii it kha nang la hp ngheo hon, Dieu nay ed Ie
la do ehu hp Idn tudi da ed thdi gian dn dinh sinh
ke, tich luy tai san, kinh nghiem san xuat so vdi
cac chu hp tre tudi. Xae sudt hp ngheo cao ban
vdi cac hp dan tpc thieu sd va hp sdng d ndng
thdn. Theo ket qua hoi qui, kha nang hp ngheo
xuat hien eao ban d vdng Tciy Bae va BSc Trung
Bp va it khd nang xuat hien tai Ddng Nam Bd.
Dieu ngac nhien la xae suat hp ngheo ty Ie
nghieb vdi qui md hp, Didu dd ed nghla la nhung
hp ed qui md Idn hon, ddng thanh vien han lai

cd xac xudt nghdo thiip hon. Lieu co phcii do hp
ed qui mo Idn hon thi cd nhieu lao dpng hon hoac
gan vdi chu hp Idn tudi hon vol gia dinh nhieu
the he, cd tich luy tai san va kinh nghipm lau
nam hon? Dieu nay cd le can cd them cac nghien
cdu sau hon dd l'^ gi^.
Ve 5nh budng cda giao due va hgc vdn, kdt
qua hdi qui Logit eho th^y rSng kh^ nang ngheo
ty le nghich vdi so nam di hpc cua chu hg. Ndu
chu hp cd trinh dp td dai hgc trd len, hg it co kh^
nang la hd nghdo.TViy nhien, cdc bien nhi phSn
tieu hgc, trung hgc ca sd va tnmg hoc phd thong
khdng cd y nghla thdng ke, mac du cd dau am
the hien quan he ty le nghich vol kh^ nang
ngheo.
Lien quan den sinh kd cua hg, viee hp lam
nong nghiep khdng nhat thiet di kem vdi ngheo.
Tliy nhien, neu ehu hp lam dich vu hay lam cho
khu vuc nha nude, kha nang ngheo it xay ra hon.
Lam dich vu thudng cd thu nhap cao hem lam
ndng nghiep, trong khi lam cho khu vuc nha
nude cho thu nhap dn dinh ban so vdi cac khu
vue khae. Ngugc lai, neu chu hp phai di lam thue
thi kha nang ngheo cung tang cao han. Hp ciing
it khd nang la hg ngheo ndu bp kinh doanh ci
the hoac kinh doanh tu nhan.
Tinh trang ngheo cua hp ciing cho thay ed lien
quan den sd hdu dat dai, Theo ket qua hoi qui,
eae hp cd dat cay hang nam, dat cay lau lam va

dat thuy san cang nhieu thi cang it khci nang
ngheo. Dat dai cd vai trd quan trpng vdi sinh ke
eua nhung hO ndng dan nen viec sd hiiru nhieu
dat giup hd ed ngudn sinh kd ndng nghiep tot
hon. Sd him dat vudn, trong khi do, khdng the
hidn anh hudng tdi viec hd ngheo hay khdng
ngheo. Dieu nay cd the do d phdn Idn cac hp gia
dinh, dat vudn khong phai la noi s ^ xudt ndng
san hang hda hoae san xuat dich vu. Trong ket
qu§ nghien cdu, viee hd phai thue dat hoae cho
thue dat khdng lien quan thdng ke tdi trang thai
ngheo hay khdng.
Ve tiep can ha tdng, nhung hp dugc tiep can
dien Iu(^ cd xac suat ngheo thap hon. NhCmg hp
tiep can duge ngudn nude may cung it ed khd
nang ngheo hon.Tliy nhien, viec hg cd sd dung

36 iTAPCHfKINHTevAQUANLYl 5628(12-2018)


B jng 2: Ket quji irdc lUtfng mo hinh hoi qui Logit

Tay Bac
Dong Bac
Bac Trung Bo
Nam Trung Bo
Tay Nguyen
Dong Nam Bg

He so

-0,05"
0.94—
0,56—
-0.7"»
0,2'
1,27—
0,37—
0,33"
0,22
0,59"*
0,25
0,04
-0,67"-

Ten bien
Dai hgc
Lam nong nghiep
Lam dich vu
Di lam thue
Lam nha nu6c
Hg ca the
Hp tap the
Hg tu nhan
Dat cay hang nam
Dat thuy san
Dat cay lau lam
Dat vudn

Tay Nam Bg
So nam di hgc

Tieu hpc
Trung hpc CO sd
Trung hgc pho thong

-0.01
-0.11"'
-0.02
-0.3
-0,34

Cho thud dat
Dien ludi
Nudc may
Xii ly nudc
He so chan

Ten bien
Qui mo ho
Ty le phu thugc
Nii chu ho
Tuoi chu ho
Chu ho dpc than
Dan toe thieu so
Nong thon

Thue ih

He so
-1,64"'
0,18

-0.35"
0.37"'
-1,4""
-0.45"
0.008
-0.48"
-0,05"*
-0.09"*
-0,06"*
-0,003
0,11
-0,3
-1,05"*
-0,52*"
-0.82
1,86

Ngudn: Ket gui udc lugng md hinh bang phan mem STATA
Ghi chu: *'*. co y nghla thong ke dmdc 1%; *': co y nghia thong ke d mdc 5%; '. co y
nghia thong ke d mdc 10%.
bien phap xd ly nude bay khdng khdng cd anh
hudng ed y nghla tdi xac suat ngheo.
Nhu vay, cac ket qua thu dugc kha phu hgp vdi
ky vpng, ngoai trd dac diem eua qui md hd trong
eae hp ngheo. Cac ket qua cung thdng nhat vdi
nhieu ngliien cufu djnh tinh cting nhu dinh Iugng
trong va ngoai nudc ve cac dac diem cua hd
ngheo lidn quan den nhan khau hpc, vi tri dia ly,
trinh do giao due, viee lam, sd huxi dat dai va tiep
can ha tang.

4. K^ luan va ham y diinh sach

Ket qua hdi qui logit eho thay, hp ngheo ed dae
diem la ty le phu thude eao, ehd hg tre tudi, chu
hp la ndt gidi, da Ii di hoac gda vg/ehong, la ngudi
dan toe thidu sd, Xac suat ngheo eung cao hon
neu hp sdng d ndng thon, song d vung TSy Bae

hoae Bdc Trung Bp, Giao due va viee lam ed anh
hudng Idn den hg, Chu hp cd trinh dp cao hon,
cd viec lam trong khu vuc nha nude hoae kinh
doanh ca the, kinh doanh dieh vu thi hg it ed khci
nang rgi vao tinh trang ngheo. Hd eung it kha
nang ngheo neu sd hOru nhieu dat dai eanh tac,
du la dat trong hang nam hay lau nam, hoac dat
mat nudc de nudi trdng thuy san. Nhung hp d
vung cd ha tang tdt hon, tiep can dugc dien ludi,
nudc may cung it cd kha nang ngheo.
Cac ket qua nay eho thay de gidp ngudi dan
thoat ngheo thi can sd dung da dang cac bien
phap,
Mgt la, can cai thien dac diem nhan khau cua
hp ngheo theo hudng giam ty Ie phu thugc, Dieu
nay ham y can cd eae bien phap khuyen khich
cae hp ngheo, hp dan tpc thieu sd sinh it con

S628(12-2018)|TAPCH(KINHTEVAQUANLy| 37


THUCTIIN-KINH NGHIEM

N6ng din Miin ISy thu ho^ch Ma

Anh:TTXVN

eao nhan thuc cda cae hd gia dinh ndi ehung, hp
hon,
Hai la. can quan tam nang cao trinh dp giao ngheo ndi rieng.
due d eac vung ed ty Ie hd ngheo eao vi giao due
tdt hon se lam tang kha nang thoat ngheo cua
hd.
Ba la, quan tam hd trp dat eanh tae cho cae hp TAI LifiU THAM KHAO
ngheo vi hp ngheo ehu yeu sdng dua vao san 1) Nguyen Thing, Le Dang Trung, Vd Hoang Dat va
xuat ndng nghiep va dat san xuat la yeu to dau Nguyin Thu Phuang (2006) "Poverty Poverty Reduction
vao quan trpng. Day cung la thach thdc ddi vdi and Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam ", Background paper for
eac dia phuong do dien tieh dat canh tac ban Chronic Poverty Report 2008-2009
che. VI the, can ed bien phap bao toan va phat 2) Baulch, B. and H.DVu (2011) "R>verty Dynamics in Viettrien quy ddt san xuat, han ehe chat pha rdng, nam. 2002 to 2008" in Baulch B (Ed) Why Poverty Persists'
du canh du eu va chuyen doi mue dieh sd dung Poverty dynamics in Asia andAh^ica Cheltenham, UK, Eddat ndng nghiep,
vi/ardElgar, trang 219-54
Bon la, tiep tue dau tu phat tnen ket cau ha 3) World Bank (2018) "Climbing the ladder: Poverty reductang tai nhirng vung cd nhieu hd ngheo nhu Tay tion and shared prosperity m Vietnam", Vietnam poverty
Bae, BSe Trung Bg vda giup phat trien kinh te and shared prosperity updated report 2018.
hang hda, thuang mai dich vu, vua gidp nang
38 I T A P C H I K I N H T ^ V A Q U A N L Y I 5628(12-2018