Phân tích yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến nghèo trong cộng đồng ngư dân ven biển tỉnh ninh thuận

Siiinct &T«knoIii;y Divilspmtil, Vol 17, Nii.Q4 - 21114
PHAN TlCH YEU TO ANH H U ' 6 N G O t N N G H t O TRONG CQNG fiONG NOtT OAft ' " «
VEN B i t N TINH NINH T H U ^
.»«
ANALYZING FACTORS AFFECTING THE POVERTY IN FISHER COMMUNITIES IN NINM
THUAN COAST
•, Ph^m H i n g Manh
Tntanz Dai hoc Nha Trans - phmanhdhnt/^^mail cam

, J..
-.,-.

Phan Vinh An
Tniijmg Cao Hdng nghi Ninh Thit^
CBaiiih|nngAy02tii&igl0nain20l4.hotochinhsuachehiQgity 14lIiilng0tnBra2O15)

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TdM TAT
,10
Nghien cuu nay nhdm luttng hoa cac yiu 16 anh hwhig ttin linh Irflng n^i^'lrong e ^
d^
ngir ttan ven biin linh Ninh Thugn. BSng vigc sir dung 1} thuyit vi nghio vd mo hinh kinh
tilttttngnh^.
3inh giiS miic dg anh huong cua cdc yeu to nghiin ahi t&i Ilnh Irgng nghio cm hg gia dinh. Kil qitS;
phdn Ilch cho Ihay li I? h6 ngheo Irong cgng ding ngu ddn ven biin linh Ninh Thu^ cdn khd cao d:n^. •
10.6%. NhOng yiu li Ihuc sir gdy ra linh Irgng nghio cho hp gia dlnh ngn ddn ven biin
mkNhm
Thudn. bao gdm: thai gian di hgc cda chu h$. qui mo hg gia dmh. nghi lu&i kio vd mAc OdgldltlMp I
Clio md hinh Id 36.2%. Kil qud nghiin ahi cUng chi ra rdng. di cho h$ cd kha ndng cdi Ihi^-tlnh tri.

nghio cua minh, rdt cdn cd nhitng chmh sdch vi chuyin doi nghi gido due vd ddo Igo cOng nhu chtiM
sdch ddn sd vd ki hogch hda gia dmh trong cgng ding ngu dan lgi khu wc nioi.
.: < : f ITi
Tk khda: ngu ddn. nghig, Ninh Thugn.

.... ..^

ABSTKACT
j
This study aims lo quantify factors affecting Ihe poverty in fisher communities In Ihe cttdt't$X
Ninh Thuan province. Based on theories on poverty, we employed aa econometric model l&eslllndle Ihe '.
impact of each factor on Ihe poverty of Ihe households. We found lhat Ihe rale of poor housOiaUs
remains high, al 10.6%. Faclors causing Ihe poverty include householder's years of schooling, famify
size, and net fishing business. The model's explanatory capacity is 36.2%. The resulls also show Ihal In
order lo successfiilly combat Ihe poverty, il is necessary to Introduce career trgnslllon asslilanee
policies, education and training as well as family planning lo Ihe fisher households.
Kxy words: Fishers, poverty, Ninh Thuan

• (tvtndt
Nmh Thuan la m§t ttoh ven biln thuOc vilng
DuySn hai Nam Trung B^ cila Vift Nam.
Trung tam cia tinh li thinh phi Phan Rang Thip Chim nim cich Thanh phi H i Chl Minh

cich san bay Cam Ranh khoang * ) tan, thli|n
til" cho vi$c giao luu phit tri&i Idnh t l x4 hOi;
eto tlnh. NghSo dSi dang giim nhanh tgi ttoh
Ninh Thujn. Thiio cic s6 li«it th&ig U chtah

khoing 350 km vl phia Nam, each Nha Trang

105 k m , c i c h D i U t 110 km ding thiri nim

duyc cii thijn (UBNB ttoh Ninh I W n ,
2013a). Cic ylu tich4.yiut»oittfll^,ddlliSy
chii ylu liho^t ding kinhti gia ting, CO s i b9
'" " ~
" ~—=—--

Trang46


IAP ai WAT TlltH HMC*, i ; ^ 17, SO Q4 • 2114
^

^ >W» WSi 4to j ^ , <#i lit hm cic

4 d l v« y t l , , gii„ dvc d i i « n h , cic loi ich
^ i l o cac cfaooi^ trinh giini^hao h i ^ nay
mang fei. Tuy ^§^; N i a thian 1*1 S m * IM,
i ^ i > cia c i nuib, }i^1h(i^3!l/B3 Itah nanh v l
n & iii n^ite vi li ltah i^heo nhit ving D n ^
WUH B5 (UBND ItahXnih Thiin, 2013a).
Thmg tSi ban Ninh Thiin hifti n ^ , I h i
vyc eO a If ho n^ite cao vin aôi6c v i Um VBC
ãgu ô n ven Nin Ninh Thiln. BS cd dil gim,
nghio nhaib hon cbo ngniri dan ifai^c Um vuc
i ^ A £ n g li nhOng bil toan * ra cho
cbtoh i^tyln ( ^ phnong ggi ^ _
a lAiiu aim i|ua, vln dl dii nghio IB Ihl
hit a i K nUlu sv qnan tam cia cic d]a

I * P » « . I * nha khm hoc. Nhiing cing tttah
ãôl>ita cAu liCii bilu pUi k l din nhn N^uin
Ota ««a WB (a»i))i t^UIn cAu cia Nguyg,
T>«ngHoii v i d i n g n i J u ^ (200«) h ? ^ iHy
Ii nhdng n^uCu cAi cua Phwn Hing iMgnh
( M i l . 2012)... Til c i uhlng n^tift, c i u ttto
IB gip phin hhb ddnh CO s i khoa hoc ttng
vifc phto Hdi v l ttoh ttjng nghio ctia h« gia
«nh,iBcbiStligiadhhngudanvVi«l Nan Ufn nay. Tuy v«y, nhIhl v i cU tilt v i « c iSlm ^ l i o m c ^ ding
ngu iBn ven hiin tmh Ntah T h 4 u v k c h n
dnpc linl le^
Xufc | M t l i nhDng d ^ dilm vi thnc ti&i
0 ^ mi bii vill Biy se tilp IUC kl ihia nhang
o^i&i c i u ttufc dl OiiSi gii ttah a^ng dii
Ogbio ttung c*ig ding ngu din ven bUo tmh
Ninh Tbuln alam dua n uhOng giii phip giam
ngbio cho B ^ dfa tin khu vvc 1 ^ .

^ai*VUvll'imliWM,mfkil^i*m
K U i u i ^ nghio
Nghio M m«l khii nilm da chiln, do d i
chia c i Bi4t khii nifm lhii« nhfc n i a Tliea
Hefa hiag t i l giii (WB) nghio Ii ttah ttvg
kUag c i k U B h g c6 muc slag tii Ihiln. VAi
cididinhgiia^ttilElmkhiiiaidljdc

4 * nmh g i n doi nj^ieo l i nhu d u kiaki
(rang hiong) lii thilu duoc d i i ^ cho mdi

i^uii mii i ^ y . Muc t& diHn mi WB sH dung
li 2100 kcaliVi^B»>'i|gay vdi l i luoi^ thoc
Ihic phim g i n 40 sin phim. Ngan hsig The
gidi goi ^ Ii dli s i plBic Igi - thudc do chit
luDi« cuoc sing v i dupc bilu h i ^ d mih: dm
nhip hay muc cfai deu cua ho gia dmh. Trong
i«bien QUI vi Ihi di|p thong ttn, Ngan hing
Thi gidi dua tten s i lifn vi cbi tteu Ii chmh vi
cfao ling thu nhiR bin dlin nd khing phin anh
ttpc t i ^ chfc hiong cupc sing nhi Ii du lieu,
vi hon nDa cac h i gia Ifinh do nhilu 1$ do
dniAng ke khai khdog iBy d i Ihu nhip. Do m,
ctain n^iio (ngheo tuyft diQ mi N ^ h ^ g
dll gidi 4 m ca cho cic nuic dang phit ttiin la
I,25S/ngay va cic nuic phit ttiln li 2Siigiy
dB> s i c mna nnng duong (WofU Bank,
2014).
Tfi Vifl Nam, nghio ihoc Ihia nh|n flieo
khii uiftB cua Oy ban kmh ^ - M h«i khu v»c
chin A - Tliii Btoh Duong l i chic * Thii Lan
uim 1993 Its Ii: nghio d i i H flnh ttsng mft b i
pMn lOi cu khing cd kha ning dite m i l
nhOng nhu cfci oo bin cia con i^ifti nd nhdng
nto ciu i y phu flrafc vio ttah da phit ttiln
ktoh l l - u hfi, phmg luc tjp quin cna ling
ving vi nhing phong IUC ^ duoc x i hji Biia
nhto (Chhh phi, 20O3). Xufc phil lit tttah d$
pbit Iriln flue l l 1^ Vift Nam, Chtoh phu Vifl
Nam cio giai dosn 2011 - 2015. Theo quy # 4 cia

Chfah Phi, I9i kto vjc nong fliin nhOng hf cd
dm nI4p ttu% btah flatag l i tti 400 nghta
dangfteniii Itojc cni U hf nghio (CUnh phi,
2011). Qfah ri v(y, ttong nghi&i c i u sft djng
Uai nifm vi mic d m i i nghio qufc: gia ttong
g i a i d o a n n i y d l B m t i & i c U d a n h g i i nghio
dii.

Traag 47


Science fiTechnslogy DcvelopBenI, Vol 17, No.Q4 - 2014
Cfic yia t6 anb hnvng d ^ tinb trang
nghto cna h$ gia dinb
Cfic cong trinh nghien cihi truoc day ^
nhan di|n-v6 cfic yeu to finh huong toi tinh
tTEing n ^ e o cua ho gia dinh, nhu: Nghien cihi
cua Jonathan Houghton, E>oniinique vfi cfic tic
gifi khfic (1999), Jonathan Hau^ton. Shahidur
R. Kiiader (2009), Nguyin Trgng Hofii vfi d5ng
nghiep (2006), Pham Hong Manh (20Ua,
20nb), Dinh Phi H6 (2013)... Ttr nhOng
nghien cuu th^c nghiem ciia cfic quoc gia tr£n
thi giai, Ngfin hfing Th€ gidi (World Bank,
2005; Jonathan Haugjiton, Shahtdur R. Khader,
2009) dfi xfic djnh cfic nhdm y^u t6 ccr ban anh
hudng tdi tinh t r ^ g nghto ciia h$ bao gdm:
Thu nhit, nhdm nhfin tt liSn quan d4n dfic
dilm v£ing bao gSnu sv cfich bi^t vk dja 1 ^ ^
h$i do thilu h? tfing co sd; han che trong vi$c

tiep cfin cfic lo^i Uij t n ^ g vfi cfic djch v\i xfi
h$i, nguon ](ic co bfin nhu dit dai vfi chit
lugng dfit dai, dilu ki^n t^ nhiSn (thdi tilt...),
qufin ]•} nhfi nude vfi b^t binh dfing.
Thfi: hai, nhdm nhfin to ii€n quan din dfic
difim ciia c$ng d^ng bao ghm: h? tSng co sd
(di^n, nudc, dudng giao thdng... X ph9n bo d^t
dai, khfi nfing tilp c$n cfic hfing hda vfi djch v^
cdng (y tl, gifio dye).
Thd ba, nhdm nhfin t6 lien quan din nhttng
^ dilm eiia hO gia dlnh nhu: qui md h$ gia
dlnh, tJF 1§ phv thupc (phin trfim s6 ngudi
tnidng thfinh khong cd ho^t ddng t^o Au nhfip),
gidi tinh ciia chu hd, tfii sfin cua h$ gia dlnh:
dit dai, phuong tifn sfin xult, nhfi cira... , ty 16
cd vi|c Ifim cua nhthig thfinh vi6n trudng thfinh
trong hd, l09i vi§c Ifim chinh, ^ lfim hay lfim
diuS vft tiieo ngu6n thu nhfip chinh ciia h^...
trinh dd hgc vln tnmg binh cua h$.
Thu tu, nhihig djc dilm cua chii h§: tuoi,
gifio dye (s6 nftm di hpc, bfing cap cao nhat),
vi0c Ifim (tinh tr?ng vifc Ifim, loji cong vi?c).

T r a n g 48

dfin t$c (cd hay Ididng cd thnOc nhdm
tiiiin sS).

^ ,

&ik^
^

1*

Nhu vfiy, bien so n^tfio cua Ii§ g n (Knh
mdt hfim phy thupc vfio i^tlu ylu t6. C
nhdm ylu to anh hudng tdi tinh tr^ng ngit
bao gdm: dftc dilm viing, ^ dilm cua c$i
d^gj-djc dilm cua h$ gia dinh, iS^c dilm cdft
chiJ hd.
Trang nghifn cihi nfiy, nhttng biln s6 < ^
trung cua h$ gia dinh ngu dfin t^i vdng vc^
bifn tinh Ninh Thu$n dupFc su dyng dl ^ n h ^ L
kha nftng rcn vfio tinh tr^ng nghto bao g6m.
d$c dilm vl chd h9 g ^ ftinh nhu gidi tfnh,;
tudi, tlnh tr9ng s i ^ khde,fiilnhd§ hpc vln, kuA
nghifm cda chii h$ trong ho^t <^ng khai ftfich,
D^c dilm vl h$ gia dlnh, bao ghm qm md hfk,
dfic dilm nghl khai thfic, s6 thfing khai ti]fi«,'
cdng suit tfiu thiQ^ln, t i ^ c$n 6k sfin xnlt, tll^i
cfin tfn dyng, nghl Ifim thSm Ngofii ra,
dilm ttr gdc d$ c$ng d6ng nhu dudng
thdng, khofing cfich tfir h$ din chp trung tfiisi.'
cQng dirpc xem xfit.
3. Phirong phfip nghiSn cfhi
Mlu nghifn cdu
Ddi tupng nghi&i cdu lfi via dk i ^ t o SS&l
cOng nhu cfic ylu td finh hucmg tdi ddi i # ^
trong cOng ddng ngu dfin. Ddi tupng khfio >Sfi^

Ifi nhihig hp gia dlnh ngu dfin trong cfng ddng
ngtr dfin ven biln tinh Ninh Thu|n tjp trui^
vfto nhdng h$ lfim nglii khai tiific hfii sfintiiAo,]
gian til thfing 06 nftm 2013 din tiifing !2 nfim,;
2013.
, J3
Nghifn cdu dfi tiln bfinh Idifio sfit cfic h9 ng^ |
dfin ven biln t ^ Ninh Thu$n bfing phuong phfip|^l
lly mSu djnh miic (quota sampling) d\ra trfn ti ]
If tdng thi tfiu thuyln khai thfic ven bd ciia m ^ -j
dja phuong trong t l i ^ Sd li^mg mSu dilu tia Ifi 4
300 hf gia dinh ngu dfin ho^t d^ng khai t M ^ I
hfii sfin ^ i cfic # 1 f^nidng cfla Ninh Tbu^n;"' j
Trong 300 p l u ^ dilu tra d l i ^ Idifio s ^ sd' J


T ^ c a t M A T TRI^N KfiftCN, T ^ 17, S^ Q4 • 2014
p i H ^ d m v l ^ M ^ ^ h ^ & ^ s f t dni« i ^ n f e
^n;ti(^
,
MS ^ B b Idnfa t^ faVDg v l y & ^ ^

d$^

Titiiig n^i€A (*u Oiu nfiy, m ^ m & liidi b&
qui I m ^ ^ipc: sii: dyng 3 l i^Sii tSgh cac yfa t6
i f c hudng den tiiA traig n^»5o cua hd g s

Ttai^l^:

V lfiitf& H & p ^ ftuflc (Y = I. nia thoOc b$
i # ^ Y = 0 lilu d d n g truflng h ^ Idific)
TUCS: Biln sd mdi tfidi tir nfim sinh cua did
h ^ K j r v ^ g mang dfiu dinsig(+). Ciing tiieo
1 ^ qoi (filu tra mdc sdng d&i cu vfi kit qufi
<%rC%: ^ ^ btah ngbifn cihi n^ito ddi khfic
nhn eiia N g i ^ T i w g Hofii vfi ddng n ^ i ^
<2006), Pft^m Hwig M^nh (2012)... cho rfing
tudi efia chd hO s£ ddng biln vdi kinh n ^ f m
titmg hoat ddng sfin xuat i^be khai thfic vfi tfie
dQng tfi^ ( ^ d ^ tfiu n h ^ , tiir dd gifim tiiilu
kW lOi^ nA id» nguOng n | ^ eda h$. 'ftwig
nghifn ohl, Kkn sd nfiy du^c gifi # d ) Ifi mdi
cua cM h$ cd qnan hf ngi^ic chilu vdi khfi
n&g rai ^Uto ngudng n^ito.
GfOmNH: 14 b i ^ gifi, nh§n gifi trf I nlu
dui li$ Ifi n m gift, nhfin gift trj 0 cho trudng
faq> dni b$ tiiu$c m gjffi, 1^ i ^ i g diu hf s6
hdi thdy sfaffiSn^UFdngphd h ^ vdi lao dfng nam
hdii, i» vfef n0^h^ cdu kJ vpng nlu chfl h$ Ifi
nam se BHa gi&n xfic suit n ^ t o ciia h$.
K I t p _ C H : tbl h i ^ sd nfim tiiam ^ Imfit
d ^ kbai tfific oia h$ gia ifinh, kjf vpng mang
d i u (-). Ntfing hi^ ga < i ^ trpng B ^ khai tiific cfing Ifiu nfim duidng
cd tfiu n b ^ ha ^ah vfi cao hon nhihig hp gia
dbib mdi tfnm gia. Do dd, nghito eftu kJ vpng

A d ^ d ^ Ifafia ^ <^mg mftc d i i ^ i ^ i t o tiieo

qui ^ i h cua CSioih Pim d& vdi lAu ^ i c ndi^
A m ^ dopn 2011 - 201S lfim tifa dif dfinh
gifi ngjifo etoi (Oi&yi. PM (2011). Tii^ eo sd 1^
^ ^ ^ iSI nfu, md binh kinb t l hipng vl yfu td
lie d ^ d ^ tiiA ti^ng i ^ t o cda hp ngu dfin
tai viii^ vktt t n ^ Niidi Thufin dupc tiif h i ^

i ^ nlu c& ylu td kMc kh&ig <^i, vifc tibig
tiiSm I nftm kinh ngbif m sS lfim gifim xfic suit
nri vfio &ih t r ^ g nghto cira fap.
HOCVA_CH: till h i ^ sd n&n di hpe tmi^
binh (Hia diuhf, 1^ vpng mang diu duong (-).
Kbi trtah dp hpc vln cfla chu h$ trong gia dlnh
cfing cao, cfing cd Mifi nfing t i ^ cfn vdi cdng
nghf, k^ tiiofit mmg sfin xult vfi cd dilu kifn dl
nfing cao CO bpi cfii tiiifn tini nhip. Do dd
nghifin cdu 1^ vpng ring, nlu cfic ylu td khfic
Midng ddi, vifc tfing tiitai I don vj cfla biln
nfiy se Ifim gram xfic salt nri vfio ttah t r ^ g
n^itoctiab$.
QUYMO: Biln till h ^ sd nguiri sdng ttong
m$t hp, Uidng tfnh din ngudi lfim tiiuf vfi d
nhd. KJ vpng mang d ^ (+). Theo dilu tra mdc
swig dan eu cua Tdng cyc tiidng k6 phdi hpp
vdi UNDP dm tiily nbOng bfing chihig do lfi,
nhOng hd gia dtah ndng thdn ddng con, ft cd
d i ^ k i ^ difim sdc sdc khde vfi hpc hftnh, vl
vty khfi Ifing t i ^ cfin flij trudng lao dfng tii^
vfi Idifi nfing roi vfio ttah tr^ng nghto cao hon
so vdi nhdng hp khfic. Vl vfiy, nghifin cdu gifi

djnh ffing qui md bf cd mdi quan hf ding biln
vdi xfic suit nri vfio nguJtagn^to.
DUONG^GT: lfi biln jAfin finh tlnh trjng
tilp cfin CO sd lm ting, nhfin gifi trj I nlu khu
vyc bf gia dfaih snih sdng cd dudng giao thfing
dupc rfii nhya hofic xi mftng vfi bftng khfing cho
T r a n g 49


Science ATechnology Development, Vol 17, No.Q4 - 2014
nhung tmong hpp con lai, ky vpng diu hf s6
hfii quy (-). Nhilu bftng chung tiiuc nghiem dft
cho tiifiy, cfic khu vuc dan cu co ducmg giao
tiifing nong ihdn thufin ipj se gdp phfin rit Idn
trong vifc luu thong, trao ddi hang hoa vfi tiSp
can thj tnidng vi cfi nhilu dilu kifn trong vifc
cai thifn thu nhfip. Chinh vi vfiy, trong nghito
cihi gia djnh rftng, nhung hg gia dinh tilp can
de dang voi ha tang co sd tiiilt ylu tren se co
xac xufit roi vao nghto dfii thip hon so vdi cac
hfi khfic.
KCCHO: biln sfi khoang each chp la bien
sd khofing cfich tfnh tir nha chu hfi din trung
tftm chg. Ky vpng mang diu (-). Hfi gia dinh cfi
khoang cfich gin chp thudng tiiufin tifn trong
eufc sdng sinh hoat hfing ngfiy, tftng khft nftng
tifu tiiy san phim vfi giam bdt chi phf di IEII.
Trong nghito cihi, bifn sd nfiy dupc gia djnh ift
khoang cfich xit nhfi cua chii hg din tmng tfim
chp c6 quan hf ngugc chieu vfii kha nfing roi

vfto ngudng nghfeo.
SUC_KH: lfi biln gia, nhan gift trj 1 nlu chu
hf cfi vln dl ve siic khde, nhgn gift trj 0 nlu
nhftng tmimg hgp khftc, k)- vgng mang diu
duong (+). Nhftng chii hp cd van de ve sdc
khoe tiiudng ft cfi khfi nftng lao dfing vft vl vfiy
tiiudng khfing cfi kha nftng dl t^o ra tiiu nhfip.
Trong nghifin cuu, biln sd nfiy dupc gia djnh
cfi quan hf thu$n chilu vdi khfi nftng roi vfto
ngudng nghfeo.
NGHE_KEO: Ift biln till hifn hf gia dinh
h09t dpng trong nghl \u6i Wo. Trong cfic nghe
khai tiific chli ylu, nghl ludi k^o dugc ngu dan
sir dyng khfi phd biln do dftc dilm cua nghl
nfty tiiudng khai tiiftc tfin dift. M^c d£i Chinh
phu da cfi qui djnh d m khai tiiftc nghe nfty t^ii
khu vyc ven bd, nhung do sftn lupng khai tiiftc
cua nghl nfiy tiiudng ldn nen rit nhifiu ngu dan
t9i vdng ven biln Ninh Thufin vln ho^t dfng
lto lut Chinh vl vfty, trong nghifn cuu gift djnh
rtng nhftng hf ho^t dfing trong nghl ludi kto
tiiudng cfi tiiu nhSp cao hon so vdi cftc nghl
Trang SO

khai thfic khftc, vfi dilu nay rfit can dupc kilm
djnh trong mo hinh nghien ciiu ddi vdi cftc hf
ngu dan tai khu vyc nfty.
SOTHAKTH: Ifi biln thf hifin tiidi gian khai
tiiac trong nftm ciia hfi, ky vpng hf sd hfii quy
(-). Nfiu chii hfi Iftm nghl khai thftc quanh nfim,

sfi cho thu nhfip cao hon khai thac theo mila vy
hoftc cfi thdi gian nghi khfing khai thftc trong
nam. Do dfi kJ- vpng neu cftc yfiu tfi khftc khdng
dfii, vific tfing I don vj ciia biln nfty s5 Iftm
giam xfic suat roi vfto ngudng ngheo cila hfi.
CSUATTA: la biln till hifin tinh trgng hfi
cd tftu ho?c ghe may hay khfing, nh§n gifi trj I
nfiu cfi tftu hoftc ghe bftng mfiy, nh|n gii trj 0
cho nhihig trudng hpp khftc, kJ vgng hf sd hdi
quy (-), nghifin ciiu gia dinh rfing nhOng hfi cfi
tftu ghe miy s5 cfi kha nfing khai thic cao hon
dfii vdi nhftng hfi khfing cfi, vft vi vgy s5 cho
san lupng khai thftc cao hon, do dd nlu trong
nghien ciiu gift djnh, nhihig hfi cfi tfiu ghe mfty
sg Iftm giim xftc suit nghdo cda hfi.
CODAT: lft biln till hifn sy phfin bd dit sftn
xult den hf gia dinh, ky vpng cua biln nfty
mang dau dirong (-). Theo Phgm Hdng Mgnh
(2012), nhftng hfi ngu dan hiu hit diu sinh
song chu yeu tgi cfic vimg ven biln vft thudng it
hfi cfi dit frong sfin xult nfing nghifp. Neu
nhftng hf ngu dfin cd dat canh tftc tiifim frong
nfing nghifp thi cfi nhilu dilu kifn dl gia tftng
tiiu nhfp. VI vgy, nghifn cdu nfty gia djnh rilng
hf cfi dit dfi trdng frgt vfi canh tftc s6 cfi khfi
nftng Iftm gifim xfic suit nghfo.
COVAY: li bien dummy thi hifn tinh trtmg
tilp can ngudn vfin chinh tinic ciia hf, nhftn gifi
trj 0 nlu hp khong dugc vay, k^ vpng mang
diu (-). Nhilu nghiSn ciru gin d&y dfi cho tiily

rftng khi cfic hd gia dlnh tilp cgn dupc vdi cftc
ngudn tin dyng chtah thirc dl diu m vio hogt
dfng san xult sS cd nhilu co hfi dl md rfng
ho^t dfng sfin xult ciia mbtii vfi cd dilu kifn dl
gia tfing thu nhgp. Do vgy, nghifin cdu gifi djnh


T*P CHI PBAT TRI^N ICH&CN, T^P 17, SO Q4 - 2014
r ^ nltiii^ b$ Ci^ cfin ^bgtfauc cd 1 ^ n ^ gram x » : sti^ im vio ^ u d n g
i^bfo.
LAMTHEM: ^ biln g S , till hifin hfi gia
^tA host ^ g trong n ^ cfi, nhfin gifi tri 1
n k chu fa$ cd lfim Mm cfc n^rfi n ^ khfic
Vfi ISng 0 nin hfi dli fliam gia hoat d&ig Idiai
Afic bM san, 1^ vpi^ cna biai sd n ^ trong md
h b * nrang diu im (-). Thuc ti&i ^ t qua dika
tra cbo tiifiy idi&ig ngu dftn chl boat dfng nghl
cfi tiiu^ tfly se cd n f a ^ khfi i ^ roi vfio
t^f^lrag n ^ i t o . Do dd nghito ciu ^fi dinh ilng
nlu hO cfi nhidu hogt d0ng khfic nhau ngofii
kfaai tiific tiifiy sfin ven bd se cd dilu kifn dl tgo
fl*n tim nfa|^ vfi \rt v|ty xfic aill giftm n^ito
ldn hon.
8 : lfi sai s d i ^ nhito cda tdm hdi qui ^ag
tbl
Dl dfiiyi gifi tftc dOng bito cfla ( ^ y ^ td
d&i ttah trgng ngfato cfla hf gia dfatii agu dfin
ven biln tgi Nmh Thugn, tii mfi hfaih (1), cd till
kbfii tpi& mfi hfaih hdi logjt flifle tdng qu& nfair

Sffii:

(2)
TtaagOd,
P (Y = I) = P , Ifi Idifi nfing xfiy ra (xfic suit) hfi
i^hto
P (V = 0) = I - Pa lfi khfi nftng xfiy ra (xfic suit)
h$ khdng n^ito.
Gpih^sdOdd:

!$(£ n ^ i t o ban diu, fimig dfi P» Ifi ; ^ suit
ngbfiobmidlu.
Dovty:C^,= •^-=

eA>+AJri+-+A»»

Gia ^'nh ifing cfie yli( td khfic khfing tiiay
ddi, khi tfing 3 ^ len 1 ddn vi, hf sd chtoh lfch
nghto mdi ( 0 | ) sS lfi:
P,
A,+A*,t_ + fo(>:j,+i)

=efti+AJfi+~+PfcXt X e**
SiQ'ra:

C&ig tiiuc trfin cd ifal dugc vilt lgi nhu sau:
1-Pi
Dodi:
Pf

Op X £^«
" 1 + 0„ X Efc

Thi b@ s6 Odd via phuong trinh trfin, ta
du^c:

Cdng fliBc trto cfi •j nghifi ring vdi cftc ylu
td khfic cd djnh, kfai ylu td Xk tftng Ifin mfit don
vi till xfic suit n ^ ^ cfla mft fafi gia dinh sg
chiqrin djdi td Pj, sang P,, Vfii cfich triln khai
nhtt v|y chflng ta cd till mfi tfi nhdng kjch bfin
cho cfic yin ^ finh hudng din kfafi r ^ g mfi mft
hf nri vfio nguOng nghto vfi tit dd cd till djnfa
In^ig d i ^ cfic tftc dfing din svr fliay ddi cdc
ylu ^ finh hirdng d l lfim giftm xftc si^t mfit hf
roi vfio ngudng nghto.
Tir kit quft phftn tfch ti If nghto frong cfing
ddng ngu din ven biln Nuih Tfaugn hifn tgi vfi
td ctog fliire (3) se tmh tofin dirpc cfic kjch bfin
xfiy ra xunh quanfa ti If n ^ t o nfiy dl cfi flil
tiily rS hon vifc tiiay ^\ cftc ylu td khfic nhau
Ifim tfii^ hay gifimfr"If nghto tttmg cpng ddng
ngu dfin nfiy.

l-Ri

T r a n g 51


ScieDce ATechnology Development, Vol 17, No.Q4 - 2014

4. Kit qufi nghifin cun vfi thao lufin
4.1. Khfii qufit vl miu nghien cdu
Nghien ciru da thu thgp thfing tin tii 300 hfi
ngu dan. Sau'khi Ioai cac phieu khfing dal yfiu
cau nhu khong diln diy dii thong tin, sai dfii
tupng nghien ciiu, sd lieu thong ke khong cfi
tinh dgi difin trong mfiu... sfi philu dgt chit
Iugng su dung cho phan tich la 214 philu. Cac
dftc dilm vfi nhan khiu hpc va dfic difim kinh tl
- xft hpi cua hfi gia dinh ngu din dugc thfi hifin
qua Bang I.

Ket qua dilu tra cho thiy, hiu hit chd hp
ngu dan Ift nam gidi (chilm 82,2%), tgp trung d
dp tudi tir 33 den 52 (chilm 68,7%) vfi cd trinh
dp van hoa thip. Sd chu hg cd frinh dfi hgc vln
tir mil chft den hpc hit cap hai chiem 90,2%.
Trong so nhflng hp dupc dilu tra hau hit chua
dugc dao tgo nghe mgt each bii ban v i chi cd
sfi ft chli hf da dugc dao tgo nghl nghifp. So
hf cfi bfing cap chuyen mon tmng hpc chuyfn
nghifp, hpc nghe, cao dftng, dai hgc chi chilm
5,6% sd hfi dupc dieu tra.

Bfing 1. Dftc difim cila chii hf gia dlnh ngu dfin
D$ tu6i

So l i r ^ g

Tyll

(%)

Trinh 3q hpc vdn

S6lifgng

TJIf(%)

(H«
Dudi 32 tu5i

33

15,4

Kh6ng di hoc

35

16,4

Tit 33 dfri 42

68

31,8

C4pl

76

35,5

TCr43den52

79

36,9

Cap 2

82

38,3

TtSn 53

34

15,9

Cap 3

21

9,8

TSns

214

IOO
T6ni!
214
100
Ngudn: Tdc gid ilnh lodn tir sS liiu diiu tra
Hiu hit cftc hfi gia dinh ngu dan ven biln
thu nhgp binh quan dfiu ngudi thufc difn hg
tinh Ninh Thugn cfi quy mfi hf gia dinh Idn.
ngh^o (cfi thu nhgp tir 400.000 ddng trd
Theo kit qufi dieu fra, cd 97,7% hfi gia dinh cfi
xudng), 5,6% hp cgn nghto (cfi thu nhgp tir trto
sd ngufii trong gia dlnh ttr 3 thftnh vifin frd Ifin,
400.000 ddng den 520.000 ddng) vft 2,3% hf
chi cfi 2,3% hfi gia dinh cfi sd ngudi tir hai frd
khfi khftn (cfi thu nhgp td frfin 520.000 ddng
xudng. Bfin cgnh dd, kit quft dilu fra dugc thi
den 600.000 ddng).
hifin d Bang 2 cho tiily, cfi 10,3% hf cfi miic
Bfing 2. Thu nhgp binh quftn dfiu ngufii vfi qui mfi hf gia dinh
Thu nh^p
(nghin d^ng/ngirtti/thting)

Tfing

Si
luvng
(h5)
22

Tylf

10,3

Til 2 ngu&i Iter xuSng

5

2,3

12

5,6

Tit 3 den 4 nguiti

92

43,0

(%)

Qui m6 h$ gia dlnh
(ngirfri)

TJlf

(%)

5

2,3

Tit 5 d^n 6 ngu6i

90

42,1

175

81,8

Tten 6 nguiti

27

12,6

214

100

214

IOO

T6ng

Ngudn. Tinh lodn lit sd liiu diiu tra

Trang 52

S^
lif^ng


T^P CH! PHAT TRIEN KHACN, T^P 17, S6 Q4 - 2014
4 2 . nam ttdi yia tS anh hudng m teh
tryng nghto trong c(lng ddng ngu- dfin ven
biln t^ Sab Niah Tba$n
Dfi xfic ^ n h kfaa nfing m0t hp nri ™o difn
n^ito. n ^ n c(hi a t sij dyng mfi hinh hdi quy
k ^ t dl udc lugng. Trong cfic bifin ciia mfi fafaifa
phfin tfch aS hju ylu a khfing cfi J n^Ta thdng
ke d nuirc :^ nghifi 10% lfi bifin khofing cftch tii
nhfi cda did hf din mmg tfim chp vfi kinh

ngfai^ trong bopt d ^ kfaai tiiac cfla cbd faf.
Sau kfai Ioai cfic bien nfiy vfi tiiyc hifn pfafin
lidi Iai, kit qufi dupc flifi hifn d Bfing 3. Kfit
qua pfato tich d m thiy, trong cfc biln sd dupc
xean xfit hfiu bit cfic bito sd dfiu khfing cfi y
n0wa fliraig ke d mdc J nghia !%, 5% vfi 10%,
ngogi iru biln sfi qui mfi hf g a dBnh, nghl khai
tfaftc bfing lufii kto vfi tbdi gian di hgc ciia chd

faO.

Bfing 3. Kit qufi mfi Wnh hdi quy logit vl tinh ttang n ^ t o cua hfi
Biin phy t l n ^ : h$ gia dlnh

K^ hi|n

Hfs6

SJE

Wald

Df

Sig.

ndttoOiaiiidito-ll
Qui mOba eia dtah

OUIMO

0,580

0,160

13,177

Th6i gian di hoc cOa chfi bd

HOCVA CH

-0,790

0,328

5,793

Niihl khai IUc bine lintl kio

NGHE KEO

-1,009

0.575

B.

-3,133

1,159

Hinesd
S^guansdt

7.310

Exp

1

214

-aUiglikeUbiHxl

100J08

NageketkeRSauate

0J62

Hf sd cda cftc biln mang diu gm cd ngfita
nlu cfie ylu ^ kfaftc khfing ddi, vifc tftng difm
mft don vj biln nfiy se lfim gifim xfic suit roi
vfio tinh &?ng n ^ t o ciia hf. Hf sd cila cfic biln
mang diu duwng Ifi nhflng ylu td Iftm tfing xfic
suit nri vfio n ^ t o ddi nlu tftng thfim mft don
vi b i ^ nfiy trong dilu kifn tit cfi biln cfin lgi
lAdng ddi. Ngupc lgi nfaBng biln cfi hf sd fadi

qui cd diu fim (-) lfi nfaOng b i ^ Ifim gifim kfafi
nftng dfi nghto cda hf gia ^Bnfa.
Tir faf sd tfie dfng bito (ebk), ti If ngfato
tfairc tl t?! Ninh Tfaufin trong kit qufi ddi vdi c ^ g d ^ n ^ dfin nfty Ifi 10,3% vfi cfic
biln sd cd J nghTa frong mfi fabih fadi qui.
Ngfaito cdu (S gifi (Qnfa flifim cfic kjch bftn
n ^ t o kfafic nbau: 10%, 20% vfi 30%.

Bfing 4. Kit qufi md phdng vl tinh ligng nghto ciia hf gia iBnfa ngu dfin tgi NnifaTfaugn
BUn {Ae thnf c: Cd pbfii hf gia
Hf sd tfie dfng

Xfic suit nehto ddt dugrc u6c tlnh
mnh nghto (H9 ngbto =1)
biin (£"0
kfai biln sfi dfc i|p thay ddi m$t
dim vj vfi xfic suit ban din lfi; f%)
Cfic bito sd dfc lgp:
20
10^
C^y mfi hfi eia 1.786
17,02
30,87
43,36
TTidi Bim di hgc efia chii hfi
4,95
10,19
16,29
Nghl hidi bto (06 = n
0.364
8.34
13,49
Ngudn: Tinh toAifti-.sd liiu diiu tra cia tdc gid

Trang S3


Scieuce ATechnology DevelopineDt, Vol 17, No.Q4 - 2014
Trong mofainhnfty, bien quy mfi hg gia dinh
CO y nghia thdng ke fi mdc y nghTa 1%, Biln
mang dfiu duong, cfi nghia Ift nfiu cac ylu td

khftc khfing ddi, viec tfing thfim mflt tiianh vien
trong hfi gia dinh sfi lam tfing xac suit nghfo
doi cua hfi, hay noi each khac neu qui mfi hfl
gia dinh ngu dan tftng thfim 1 nguiri thi xfic suit
roi vfto tinh trgng nghfio cua hg tftng a miic
17,02% so vdi xftc suit ngh&o ban diu la
10,3%.
Bifin thdi gian di hgc ciia ebu hf frong gia
dinh mang diu ftm, cfi nghTa lfi nlu cftc yeu tfi
khfic khong ddi, vifc tftng thfim mft nftm di hpc
Clia chii hf sfi Iftm giam xftc suit nghto ddi ciia
hf d miic y nghia 5%. Difiu nfty cCng cd nghia
nfiu chu hf tiifim 1 nftm di hpc thi xftc suit
nghfio giftm cfin 4,95% so vfii ty If nghfio hifn
tgi lft 10,3%.
Bien nghe ludi kfio cfi S' nghia tiiflng kfi o
miic 10%. Hf sd hdi qui ciia bifin nfiy mang
diu fim cfi nghia Ifi nfiu trong dieu kifn cfic ylu
td khftc khong dfii, vifc hf cd hogt dfing khai
fliftc bang nghl ludi kto flii xftc suat nghfio
giftm cfin 4,01% so vdi xfic suit nghto ban dfiu
Ifi 10,3%. Dieu nfty phil hgp vdi thyc tl tgi dja
phuong khi mft tinh fr^ng ngudn lpi tiiiiy sfin
ven bd bj suy gifim, vifc gia tftng nS l\rc dftnh
bat bang nghl nfiy s6 dem Igi tiiu nhgp tfit hon
cho gia dlnh ciia hf.
Kit qua phfin tfch dft cho tiily, cfi ba ylu td
cfi khft nang Iftm trim trgng tiiem tinh trgng
nghto ciia hfi, bao gdm: Qui mfi hf gia dinh,
tiidi gian di hpc ciia chii hfi vft nghfi ludi kfio.

Trong dfi, qui mfl hfi gia dinh cfi kha nftng lfim
cho xftc suit roi vfto tinh trang nghfio cua hfi
cao nhit.
Lgp lugn mfit cftch tuong ty cho cfic tnrdng
hgp khftc vdi gift dinh ban diu ty If hf nghto fi
muc 10%, 20%, 30%, cilng cho tiily nhdng ylu
tfi trfin cfi till Iam giftm hogc gia tftng tlnh frang

T r a n g 54

nghfio ciia hfi ngu. dftn ven bifin tinh Ninb
Thugn,
5. Kit lu^n vfi khuyin nghj
k i t qua nghien ciru cho thiy, mfi hlnh dfi
gifii thich dugc 36,2% s^r biln thien ciia cfic
biln sd nghifin cdu din khfi nfing roi vfio tinh
trgng nghfio ciia hp gia dinh ngu dftn ven biln
tai Ninh Thugn. Cftc yfiu td chfnh finh hudng
tfii tinh trgng nghfio ciia hf bao gdm: quy mo hf
gia dinh, tiidi gian di hgc ciia chu hg vft hg Iftm
nghe ludi kfio. Trong cfic ylu td tren, qui mo hf
gia dinh cfi ftnh huong Idn nhSl. Tii kit quft
nghifin cihi dft ggi ra mgt sd chinh sfich nhfim
giam flnh trang nghfio cua hfi n ^ dSn nghl
khai thftc ven bd tgi khu vpc nfty, nhu sau:
Thli nhit, gifim qui mfl hfi gia dinh thfing
qua chlnh sfich dftn sd vft cftc chuong frinh kl
hoach hfia gia dinh. Tir kit qufi phftn tich cho
tiily, qui mfi hf gia dinh cfi ftnh hufing mgnh
nhat din tfaih frgng nghfio ctia hfi gia dlnh. Hiu

hit cftc hfi ngu dftn ven biln tinh Ninfa Thu^n
nftm trong ddi tugng nghfio lufin cfi qui mfi hf
Ifin va sd nhfin khiu cao hon nhQng hf khftc
bdi vi hf nghfio sinh dfi khfing cd kl hogch do
frinh dg hgc vin thip din din fliiiu hilu bilt,
nhQng quan nifim khfing diing vl vifc sinh dfi,
hay mudn sinh con dl cd flifim lao dfng mft dfi
quft dfty, quft nhilu. DSy ciing Ift chfnh sfich mft
Ninh Thuftn dang theo dudi (UBND tinh Ninh
Thuftn, 2013b). Chinh vi v§y, mfit sd gifii phfip
quan frpng cin hudng din nhftm hgn chl qui
mfi hf gia dinh, nhu: (i) tftng cufing cftc bifn
phfip dl giftm miic sinh thuc hifn song song vdi
cftc chuang trinh xfia dfii giam nghfio tgi dja
phuong. c i n cfi nhilu chuong trinh phd biln
kiln thiic vft khuyin khich sii dyng cfic bifn
phftp trftnh thai, d$c bift lfi dfii vdi nhdng hfi
ngu dan d vimg xa, nh&ng hp cfi hgc vin flilp
vfi nhfhig hfi nghfio; (ii) cln c6 nhdng bifn
phfip tuyfin truyin thilt tinrc hon dfi ifim thay
dfii quan nifim sinh de, thfch ddng con faay
thich con trai hon con gfti; (iii) chfnfa quyin dja


x^r (M rmks THKI KBACN, T^P 17, sd Q4 - itu
pfeHon^ < S t o g " ^ R ^ t i i ^ H9i Ptig ftfj, Hgi
K ^ liSn t Q O ^ t i ^ i ^ , B @ i ^ pfa|i jgr t £ ^ c§n
VdJH^ gidf bto 1 ^ ^ n l ^ n ^ ciK>bi€u
^
nhit &nfaSi^ fatlil bilt vd k l ht^di hda

e ^ ^ i A Vfi^i^li^ t » ^ I d i ^ b a o vf sdckbde
sfaih san cfto ^ u rdk.
Uni hai, gifio t^c lfi qude sfich hfing ^a, Ifi
CO s$ tgo nto ngiorto khi ciia qudc g ^ vi v$y
^ tfafni iffihig chinh -sfich vfi gjao due mang
tbih;fl^ &PB'hudng tm nhfing cgag ddng ngu
# 0 , ^ ' l » f t IfiiADng h§^4i£^. Kk qufi jMa
tfdi c h p f ^ , flibi gian cB hpc dia 1 ^ fad ed tfie
d f i ^ tfefa cpc bii vifc cfii tiiifn tnih trgng
n ^ ^ cda hf ^ iSnh ngu dfin. Dieu nfiy cfing
^ ^ i t g l^db tam quan trpi^ ciia ^fio d|ic trcmg
^i&Ji ^Ecft ^fim i^hto hifn nay. VI v|y, ddnh
quyin dffi phuoi^ d n : (0 ^ mgnh cfing lie
ttiyto t n q r ^ vd ^ qion trpng ciia gifio dpc vfi
dfto lga dl c ^ d & ^ n h ^ flily iftig gi'fio dpc
lu5n c6.feih fa«pi^ qam tr^ig trong tucmg Iai;
0 0 ^m h ^ Joiht bpc jAf vfi n u ^ mft sd
k h c ^ ditog g<^ cbo con em cftc hf n^ito, c ^
s&^ gifio Idioa miia |riif c ^ itiiQng d ^ sficfa
qian trgMg b o ^ cbo nn^Tn hgc xong trfi I^i.
M\ vdi'nhdng ngudi I t e tudi d n tgo dilu kito
(^ l ^ i h ^ gia cfic chuong trinh k h i ^ ngu,
IdttQ^ n&ig (^ cd ea hfit dinyln sang n ^
kMi^ ^ u ttm dfdi vp tiidy sfin, budn bfin
nhd... Idti bp khdi^ cdn dii sdc khto dl fliam
gia vfio bo9t d ^ kbai tiific trpc tifip.
Tbftba, diuyto d& nghl cbo efic hf ngu dfin
ven b i ^ tinh Ninb Thtifn trong giai do^n bifn
nay lfi hit sdc quan trpng. K ^ qufi £ l u tra vfi
[A8n tfdi ( ^ ^ ^ sd nhitng faf ngu dto h o ^

d ^ trang n ^ Idiai flific fa^ sfin Ifi nfafb^ faf
n^ito^ s i ft i ^ bong (U$i c$n n ^ t o vfi f^ bift
Ifi nhOiQ bf bogt ^ag trong n^ghl hidi kto. Vto
dl d n < ^ la 6 1 ^ lfi phfii dniyln dfii ngbl kbai
T A I UtV THAM KHAO
[1]. Chfadi jM (2003X C3din htpc torn ihpi vi
tdng Irudr^ vd xda d^ gian ngheo giai
dogn 2001 - 2010, m nfii

ftto v m bd kfim U ^ < ^ vfi tob bstat^ din
^ o d n lpi bai sfio s a ^ idttbig i^ftdi i ^ i l kfafic
"Wto dinytoddi B ^ cung lfi faudi^^ dta^ vfi
| M hgp vdi cM lni(H@ cftt gem nSi% Ipc tfiu
fliEQnaicd coi% suit nhd vda tgo £ t o k i ^ dl
tfiing bfi nghto cai d » ^ dfii s ^ dia minh. Mfit
khac, tnn^ boi ctofa i^Jifi cfi cua cfi tmdc dang
tfauc faifn cfad dxHB^ vuon xa vfi ^ bi^ traog
AA hbrii Into ^ o faien nay eda nude ta dnln
h n c i^iat frito bito Vift Nam dang trong tpiA.
trfaA d b ^ bito kfaai d ^ bto vf vfi pfaft hoy lgi
till cda mft qndc gja cd Inin, Itoi ^fiu lto tii
bilii, dtoi bto Aigc did quyoi Bnh hfii d i a ^
nndc dti v i f c c i n j ^ d M nhSng n ^ khai dific
v a bd nfiy lfi ua tito b ^ i&L Mft sd gifii p l i ^
vfi bode £ jAfi bgf^ cfau trpng ntog cao hifu qufi
cda nlfing i ^ d n i y ^ ddi vfi stoi dn < ^ ^faipc
ddi s ^ eda cfic hfi 1 ^ dto afy, cp till tdnr sau:
@ ti^i'to t n ^ tinidt^ x i V ^ vl tfaib ti^ng suy
gjtoi i ^ n n i Ipi, di& dmong dk gifim nSng Ipc
t t o tfany^ t^i kfau vpc v » bd d l ohfing hf i ^

dto fao^t d ^ trtH% cto n g ^ Uiai dific tiiu$c
khu vpc nfiy nfa^ t l ^ A^/e sp d n tiiilt vfi
tim quan tn^ig ciia vifc clniyln ddi; ® did
tnjBg nhftng hf d u ^ tu cfic ngbl kbai tiiftc
ven bd sang cto 1 ^ Uiai tfato xa bd.
M|c dii n^iito cdu ^ cd gfing dd tiiu tiifip
vfi d i ^ tra dd lifu vl Ifapc trgi^ n^ito ciia cfic
faf gia Tuy v^, mlu fidu tractoididso vdi sd bi^ig
Ito hf gia (Snb ngn dto t ^ dga lAuong. Bto
cgnb dd, vifc sd dpng ipian ddtn vfi chuin
nghto ciia Cbbh j^u dk tinb btto cto dii sd
ngbto dfii mdi fOaa finh mfit Uifa canfa n^ito
ve tiiu nh|p. Sfi Ifi i^y du vfi kbfii qufit ban nlu
»i dpng ehl sd n^ito da chiln d l dtob gifi tinb
tr^ng ngbto coa hf i ^ u dto tgi kbu vpc nfty.
Day sS Ifi l u n ^ ngjiito cuu tilp tiieo.

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