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TMtnmng
rAi
CHim
^
$ Nhu'ng thuan Igi va kho khan trong qua trinh cho vay ho trg lai suat
$
Car scr
cho vi^c ra dai Quy bao vf ngu'd'i tham gia bao hiem tai Vift Nam
Che vay he Ire lai sudU
SAO CHO HIEU QUA?
PGS.,
TS. PHAM QUANG TRUNG
Pho Hieu trw&ng Trir&ng Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc dan
Chinh phu Viet Nam dd thdng
qua "gdi
kich thich kinh te" khd
ldm,
vdo
khodng 6 ty USD,
gom:
gidm, gidn thue; tdi tra
Idi
sud't
4%
cho
vay
vd'n
luu
ddng;
ddu
tu

cdng,
ehi
an sinh xd
hdi.
Den thdi diim hien tgi, ben cgnh nhimg
tdc
ddng tich cue, qud trinh triin khai
cho
vay
ho
tra
Idi
sudt ciing
da
gap mot
sd'vu&ng
mdc.
Di
trien
khai
cho
vay ho tro
Idi
sud't
cd
hieu qud, mdt
so
gidi
phdp nhu tdng eudng su tham gia cua khdi
cdc

NHTMCP trong gdi
eho
vay
hd tra
Idi
sud't,
tie'p
tue
xic
ly tdi
ca cdu
na trong
cdc
NHTM,
cdi thien
co che
thdng tin cdn duoc
ddc
biet chu y.
Bdi cdnh thvc thi
goi kich thich kinh te
Khung hoang tdi chinb toan
ciu da tie ddng sdu sic din toan
bd nin kinh te thi gidi, dae biet
Id eae thi trudng tai ehinh. Theo
sd lieu sobd, tang Kucpng kmh te
Viet Nam quy
1/2009
Id 3,1%,
miie thap nhat ke tir mudi nam

qua. Nhung khu vuc chiu sy suy
giam manh nhit Id xua't khau,
sin xudt cdng nghiep va khu vuc
FDI. Du bao, tang trudng quy
11/2009 ed thi dat miie 4-4,5%,
Quy III/2009 Id 5-5,5% vd quy
rV/2009 li 5,5-6%. Tinh ehung ea
nam 2009, tang trudng kinh tl ed
the dat miic Ken dudi 5%. Theo
TS.
Le Xudn Nghia, neu tang
Kucpng kinh il bing quy diing
nhu dy bdo Ken thi day suy giim
kinh tl nude ta ed le Ii quy I vd
mdt phin quy 11/2009. Trong bdi
cinh kinh tl toin eau hien nay,
nhirng ehi Heu nhu Ken dii sao
vdn dupe coi li nhung Ha sdng.
Chinh phii Viet Nam da
thdng qua "gdi kich thich kinh tl"
khd Icpn, vdo khoing 6 ty USD,
tuong duong 7,5% GDP nam
2008,
gdm: gidm, gian thul; tai Kp
Iai suit
4%
cho vay vdn luu ddng;
diu tu cdng, ehi an sinh xa hdi.
Bio lanh tin dung cho doanh
nghiep eiing dupe xem Id mdt

hudng giii phap kich ciu ed tinh
kha thi. Cde danh mue kich thich
kinh tl duepe Kien khai khan
truong, dae biet la bd Kp Iai suit
vi giim, gian thue. Gdi diu tu
cdng vl
CO
bin da phdn bd xong
ngudn Hin. Bdn eanh dd, eae giii
phdp tai Kp an sinh xa bdi da va
dang ducpc thyc hien nhu dilu
chinh lucmg, bao hiim that
nghiep, tai Kp viec lam.
Trong giai doan dau Hen, gdi
tdi Kp lai sud't 4% chi dp dung
eho vd'n luu ddng, do dd ban ehi
tae ddng ddi vcii linh vuc xay
dung
CO
ban vd phdt trien co sd
ha ting. Nhiiu nha kinb tl eho
ring, thdi diem bien tai dang Id
CO
hdi td't nhd't dl ddi mdi cdng
nghe, ky thuat vdi chi phi thap
vi Ki cham nhdm ndng eao nang
lue eanh Kanh Kong tuong Iai.
Viee Kiln khai gdi hd Kp Iai
suit khdng thi tdeh rdi viee thye
thi ehinh sdch Hin te vd ehinh

saeh tai khod. Trude mit, Ngdn
bang Nhd nude (NHNN) da va
dang Hep tue dilu chinh ehinh
saeh Hin te theo hudng ndi Idng
mdt each linh boat, tang eung
Hin cd kiem sodt va khdng gay ra
edc dot biln. Nam 2007, eung
Hin cho nin kinh te tang
43%,
du
na Kn dung tdng 54%, song, nam
2008,
eung Kin ehi tang
16,3%,
du np Kn dung tang
21%.
Thi Kudng Hen te - tin dung
tbdi gian qua da ed nhirng diln
biln hit siic khd ludng, ludn xudt
hien eae yeu td mcpi nim ngodi
du doan. Ndm 2008, tbi Kudng
Hn dung ndng len vdi su gia tdng
ky lue eiia cdc miic lai suit. Thdm
ehi,
ed giai doan lai sud't duepc
day len din 21% -22%/nam.
Nhiiu ngudi dy dodn Hnh Kang
mat thanh khoin eua eae ngdn,
hdng thuong mai (NHTM) se
diln ra nang nl, keo ddi vdi cdc

muc lai suit eao Kong nhiiu
thdng. Tuy nhien, vdi tdc dpng
46
Tii chinh
THANG e/2(X>9
so Dir THirC HIEN CHO VAY HO TRC LAI SUAT TINH DEN NGAY 7/5/2009
i'
Chi tieu
T6ng mirc cho vay H6 trg lai sudt
Trong d6:
- Nh6m NHTM nhJi nude & Quy fin dung ND
- Nhom NHTM Co phan
- Nhdm NH li§n doanh, NH nude ngoai
- Nhom Cong ty tai chinh
So dy (ty dong)
Tyie
276.673.17
198.814,04
60.281,51
11.839,76
1.007,95
100,00%
71.86%
21,79%
4,28%
3,64%
aia ehinh saeh ndi Idng Hin te, Iai suit
bmh quan Ken thi Kudng tin dung da
ha xudng nhanh hon dy doan vd hiu
hit eae NHTM da duy Ki dupe kha

nang thanh toan. Din quy
1/2009,
thi
Kudng Hen te da dupe kiem soat kha
hpp ly, mIm deo hon va ed van ddng
Hch eye Kong bdi canh thye thi chinh
saeh chdng suy giim kinh te.
Tdc dong tich cue vd nhung
wdng mdc trong qud trinh
cho vay hd tro Idi sudt
Cae giai phdp kich eau can phai ed
thdi gian de phat huy tdc dung. Tuy
nhien, den thang 4/2009 da xua't hien
nhung diu hieu rit kha quan, ebo tha'y
nhiing tae dpng tdt eiia gdi giai phap
chdng suy thoai kinh tlaia Chinb phu.
Cd the neu tdm tit nhu sau:
Thii
nhd't:
Diln bien eua mdt bdng
Iai suit da kha hpp ly va thue day
ludng vdn diu Kr vao sin xuat kinh
doanh. Mue lai suit huy dpng ky ban
12 thang phd biln d mue 8% -
8,5%/nam (thang 3/20009). Lai suit
cho vay nhddd tuong ddi dn dinh, phd
bien d mue 10-12%/nam, Kir cac
Kudng hpp dae biet.
Thic
hai:

Diln biln ty gia bdi doai
(VND/USD) dupe kiem soat vi dilu
chinh "mIm" theo hudng ed lpi eho
xuit khau. Ty gia ed thay ddi nhung
Kong bien dp chip nhan dupe vi hau
nhu it gay dpt biln so vdi nam 2007-
2008.
Thii
ba:
TTCK ed dd'u hieu hdi phue,
VN Index ngdy 25/5/2009 dat hon 420
dilm, nhu vay tang khoang 80% so vdi
miie thip nhat (235 dilm). Tinh thanh
khodn vd tdm ly Ken thi trudng tai
chinh da ed diln biln Hch eye, nilm Hn
dupe eai thien rd net so vdi diu nam
2009.
Vdi tu each Id ban thir bilu tdm
ly Ken tbi Kudng tii chinh, sy phuc hdi
cua VN-Index phin inh ky vpng Hch
eye vao khi nang phue bdi kinh tl.
Tint
tw.
Tbi trudng bit dpng san da
ed mdt sd dau hieu eai thien Hch eye,
song van dang Kong Hnh Kang tuong
ddi khd khan, giao dieh Kim ling,
chua ed su phue hdi dang kl.
Nhu mdt bude di Hep theo, ngay
04/4/2009, Thii Krdng Chinb phii da

ed Quyet dinh sd 443/QD-TTg ve viee
bd Kplai suit ebo cac td ebiie, ea nhan
vay vd'n Kung, dai han dl thyc hien
diu tu mdi, phat trien san xua't kinh
doanh, kit ciu ha ting. Cae ddi tupng
thye hien bd trp lai suit la cac ngan
bang thuong mai (NHTM), nbu quy
dinh tai Quye't dinh sd 131 trudc dd,
eae cdng ty tai chinh theo quy dinh tai
Quyet dinh so 333. Ngoai ra, Ngan
bang Phat trien Viet Nam dupe thyc
hien bd Kp lai suit ebo eae dd'i tupng
ebo vay uu dai vdi eae mue lai suit bd
Kpquy dinh.
Ddi tupng dp dung eua ehinh saeh
mdi nay la eae khoan vay Kung, dai
ban bang VND (theo cac hpp ddng tin
dung ky kit trudc va sau ngiy
1
/4/2009 eua cac td ebiic, ea nhan thye
bien diu tu mdi dl phat Kien sin xuit
kinh doanh, kit ciu ha ting) dupe thye
bien theo quy dinh eua NHNN vl che
dp bao eao thdng ke thudc eae nganh
va linb vuc kinh te. Theo Quylt dinh
443,
nguyen tic hd trp Iai suit la eae
NHTM, Ngdn hang Phat Kiln Viet
Nam, cdng ty tdi chinb cho vay vdn
trung, dai ban de thye hien diu tu mdi

phdt Kiln sin xua't kinh doanh, kit eau
ha ting theo co ehi eho vay thdng
thudng, thue hien hd Kp lai suit theo
diing quy dinh ciia Thu tudng Chinh
phu va hudng din eiia NHNN. Thdi
ban vay dupe hd Kp lai suit tdi da la 24
thdng. Viee hd Kp lai suit dupe thue
hien tir ngay
1/4/2009
din ngdy
31/12/2011.
Miie lai suit hd Kp tiln
vay la 4%/nam, Hnh tren sd Hin vay
vd thdi ban eho vay thue tl trong
khoing thdi gian ndi Ken.
Theo NHNN Viet Nam, tdng du no
eho vay hd trp lai suit din ngay
7/5/2009 la 276.673 t>'' ddng. Trong
dd, du np eho vay ciia nhdm NHTM
nha nude va Quy Hn dung nhan dan
Trung uong la 198.814 ty' ddng; nhdm
NHTMCP la 60.281 ty' ddng; nhdm
ngan bang lien doanh, chi nhanh ngan
hang nude ngoai va ngan hang 100"'o
vd'n nude ngoai la 11.839 ty ddng; cdng
ty tai chinb la 1.007 ty' ddng
Ben eanh nhirng tae ddng Heb cue,
qua Kinb Kiln khai ebo vay bd Kp lai
suit ciing da gap mdt so vudng mic
sau:

- Trong bdi eanh tbi trudng tbi gidi
sut giam nghiem trpng va tae ddng
Kye Hep de'n linb vuc xuit khiu eiia
nhieu nganh trong nude, ehiing ta
bude phai dieu cbinb chien lupe thi
Kudng theo budng khai thae manh me
nhu ciu Kong nude. Tuy nhien, eae
nhdm ddi tupng bi anh budng manh
nhit Kr suy giam kinh te la cdng nhan,
dien hinh la cdng nhan lam viee tai eae
khu cdng ngbiep, ngudi ed thu nhap
thap,
ndng dan (ehiem Ken 60% dan
so') nhat la ngudi dan viing sau, viing
xa, vung ed nhieu khd khan. Tren thye
tl,
viee dua ludng Hen kich ciu vdo cde
khu vye ndng thdn, vimg sau, vimg xa
thudng gap nhiiu khd khan va bieu
qua lan tod khdng Idn so vdi khu vye
cdng ngbiep.
- Thu tue diu tu Kong xay dyng eo
bin cdn rudm rd, pbiie tap, gay bieu
qua thip. Nhiiu dy an tbdi gian qua
giii ngan cham, nbilu ngudn vdn nbu
Kai phie'u giao due trien khai cham,
van dl thanh toan, van bin pbap quy
edn chdng cheo
- Su suy thoai eua TTCK Kong nude
da tae ddng rit Idn de'n nbilu doanh

nghiep, dae biet Id cdc cdng ty ed phan.
Nbilu cdng ty niem yet va cae cdng ty
dai chiing da khdng the buy ddng
dupe vd'n tu diu nam 2008 ebo din
nay.
- Trong qud Kinh thye hien ebo vay
bd Kp lai suit, xua't bien bien tupng
"dio np" (khdng cdng khai) eiia mdt sd
doanh ngbiep nhim budng lpi tir
khoan vay lai suit thip. Mdt sd doanh
nghiep da vay vdi lai suit eao trong
nam 2008 (ed the lai suit vay eao tdi
Ken 20% -21%/nam) se Hm each tra np
eu bing chinh khoan tien vay mdi. Day
Id mdt ebi Hit ein dupe nghien cuu de
kiem soat tdt sy van dpng thyc su eiia
ludng Hen dupe giai ngan vao sin xuat
kinb doanh nhim ngan chan .suy giam
kinh te.
- Thdi gian thue bipn ebo \ay bd try
Tii chinh
THANG
6/2009
47
^
THITRirONR TAI PHINH
Idi suit cho tbiy, mdt so ngan bang
thuong mai ed tdm ly Io ngai bi thanh
tra eae hd so cho vay. Cae doanh
ngbiep dupe vay pbii phii hpp vdi ddi

tupng quy dinh. Ne'u bd so ebo vay
khdng dupe thanh Ka NHNN chip
nhan tbi ngan bang ebo vay gap rui ro,
ed the khdng dupe nhan khoan khiu
Kir lai suit 4% theo quy dinh.
- Nhilu doanh ngbiep gap khd
khan Kong Hep can vd'n vay hd Kp lai
suit vi khdng dat chuan vay (doanh
nghiep khdng dii Heu chuan theo quy
dinh de ngan hang eho vay). Theo dng
Vii Duy Thai (Hiep hdi Cdng thuong
TP Ha Npi): "Cd nhiing doanh ngbiep
gap khd khan, ehua "chit hdn" dang
rat cin vdn nhung lai khd long vay vdn
dupe vi khdng du dilu kien dl ra".
Nhu vay, hieu qui hd trp lai suit
khdng de'n dupe ddng dio doanh
nghiep
Nhilu y kiln Hi phia eae NHTM
ebo ring, mudn nhieu doanh nghiep
dupe bd Kp thi NHNN pbii eho phep
cdc NHTM ba thap mot so dieu kien
cho vay. Cd nhu vay, khoin hd Kp mdi
de'n dupe vdi doanh nghiep dang cd
nhiing khd khan tam tbdi, chua du
dilu kien vay. Tuy nhien, nlu ha thip
Heu chuan thi ed nguy co gia tang np
xau va day nii ro Hn dung len miie eao.
- VI thii tue, theo Quy dinh eua
NHNN, kbi thye hien giim Kir lai Hin

vay bd trplai suit ebo khach bang, eae
ngan bing pbii lap "Giiy xae nhan hd
trp lai suit". Giay xde nhan dupe lap
ddi vdi timg lan thu lai eho vay va
giam Ku sd lai Hen vay dupe hd Kp Iai
suit hoac theo dinh ky hang thang.
Day la mpt trong nhirng chiing tir de
kiem tra, giam sat va lap bao eao Hnh
hinh thye hien hd Kp lai suit. Khi
thanh toan lai suit va vd'n vay, dl dupe
hd Kp lai suit, cac doanh nghiep phai
ed tit ci eae giiy td kinh doanh nbu
hda dem, chung tir Hen quan den Hen
thanh toan tir khoan vay de chiing
minh vdn sir dung diing muc dich.
Nlu doanh ngbiep khdng chiing minh
dupe vdn sii dung diing muc dich bay
bi phit hien sir dung vdn sai mue dieh
se bi dimg eho vay. NHNN ciiiig yeu
cau edc NHTM phii theo ddi bang
ngiy sd du np ebo vay dupe bd Kp lai
suit. Tren thyc tl, vi nhiing ly do khac
nhau, ed mdt sd doanh ngbiep ebo biet
da gap nbiing khd khan vl tbii tuc khi
Hip can ngudn vdn vay bd Kp lai suit.
- Ddi vdi nginh thuy san, viec trien
khai cho vay bd tra lai suit eiing edn
gap mdt sd khd khan vl co ehi thu tue.
Nhilu doanh nghiep vd hd nudi ea Ka
d ddng bing Sdng Ciiu Long eho bilH

Ngan hing yeu ciu ben vay phii xud't
Kinh hop ddng bao Heu sin pham nhu
mdt dilu kien de dupe vay vdn hd Kp
lai suit. Yeu ciu nay la phii hpp vdi
nghiep vu quan Ki nii ro tin dung ma
eae ngan hang ein xem xet. Tuy nhien,
hien nay tren thyc te, nhilu doanh
nghiep khdng thi xudt Kinh ngay eae
hpp ddng bao Heu diu ra, mac dii kha
nang Heu thu sin pham la rat kha
quan. Nen chang cd giai phdp thay thi
de thao gd khd khan eho cac doanh
nghiep va hd gia dinh nudi ea Ka
gidng, nhit la khi hp dang gap khd
khan nhu bien nay, bdi day la mpt linh
vye sin xua't kmh doanh ddng gdp kha
Idn vao kim ngach xuit khau cua ei
nude.
Mot sd gidi phdp trien
khai cho vay hd tro Idi
sudt cd hieu qud
1.
Cin tang eudng sy tham gia eua
khdi cac NHTMCP Kong gdi eho vay
hd Kp Iai suit. Ty Kpng du npcho vay
hd Kp lai suit ciia khdi nay mdi chiem
21,7%
so vdi tdng so du np da thuc
hien, mdc dii Him nang eua toan bd eae
NHTMCP edn rat Idn. Lanh dao eua

mdt sd NHTMCP eho bilt, cac ngan
bang vin cd sy e ngai vl thu tuc vd
tham dinh eua NHNN ddi vdi cac hpp
ddng ebo vay bd Kp lai suit nen tham
gia ehua that eao nhu mue ed the. Do
dd, ein tie'p tue thao gd eae van dl
mang tinh tbii tue, ky thuat de eae
NHTMCP vao cude manh me hon.
Khdi cac cdng ty tai chinb (mdi ehiem
3,64% du np eho vay hd trp lai suit)
ciing can dupe chii y tao dieu kien de
ed the tham gia manh me bon Kong
qua trinh trien khai gdi kich ciu eua
Chinh pbii.
2.
Tilp tue nghien ciiu xii ly tdi co
eau np trong eae NHTM theo hudng
linh boat, chip nhan sy dilu chinh Iai
suit theo Hn hieu thi trudng. Vin dl Ka
na cii de vay no mdi eua mdt sd doanh
nghiep vin ehua ed giai phdp rd rang,
mac du NHNN eho biet khdng chip
nhan "dio np". Tuy nbien, Kong dilu
kien tbi trudng dac biet nhu hien nay,
can thing thin nhin nhan hien tupng
tai cacdu no theo quan dilm linh boat
hon, de cic ngan hang Kinh bi roi vio
trang thai eung ung tin dung sai quy
dinh bode bi gd eiing, mat di Hnh linh
boat trong boat ddng cung ling tin

dung cho thj Kudng.
3.
Cai thien cache thdng Hn Ken thi
Kudng nhim tang eudng Idng tin eua
ngudi Heu diing va ban cbi cac Hn ddn
that thiet, cd the gay ra cdc con sdt vd
diu CO "Hn vit" gay nhieu loan thi
Kudng. Dae biet la vdi eae thi trudng
nhay cam nhu thi trudng ngoai hdi, thi
trudng vang, TTCK. Ddi vdi TTCK, ein
Hep tue hodn thien co ehi quin ly thi
trudng, minh bach thdng tin, bdo ve lpi
ieh ehinh dang eua eae nha dau tu; Nen
Hep tue tao ddng luc cho TTCK thdng
qua viee gian vi miin thul thu nhap ea
nhan Kong diu tu chiing khodn Kong
2 nam 2009-2010; Tao thuan Ipi dl edc
cdng ty niem ylt vd cdng ty ed phan
ndi ehung nang eao Hnh hd'p din ciia
c6 philu, nhd dd ed the huy ddng vdn
Ken TTCK. Kich Kiich TTCK phue hdi
se cd tae ddng Hch cue de'n toan bd thi
Kudng tai ehinh, thi trucmg bit ddng
sin va thi Kudng hang Heu dung.
4.
Cin Kiln khai td't Quye't dinh sd
443/QD-TTg ngay 4/4/2009 eua Thii
tudng Cbinb phu vl viee bd Kolai suit
eho cae td ehiic, cd nhdn vay vd'n trung,
dai ban ngan bang de thye hien diu tu

mdi,
phat trien sin xuit kinh doanh,
kit eau ha ting. Cin thyc sy hudng
ludng tiln vao khu vuc xay dyng va
nganh vat lieu xay dung (xi mang, sit
thep,
gaeh ngdi, vat lieu xdy dyng
khdc).
Theo danh gid vd phdn Hch Ken
thue te, nlu ludng vd'n hd Kp lai suit
4%
eua Chinh phii dupe rdt vao khu
vuc xay dung thi tdc dpng nhan bdi
(Multiplier impact) ciia so vd'n nay se
Idn hon nhilu nganh khae, tao ra dupe
nhilu viee Idm vd thu nhap cho chudi
sin xuat, dieh vu ed Hen quan. Cdc
doanh nghiep sin xua't vat lieu xay
dung se duy Ki dupe sdn xuit vd thu
nhap,
den lupt minh, se tao them siie
ciu ndi dia ebo cdc doanh ngbiep eung
ung khae.
5.
Cin Hep tue thuan Ipi hoa qui
Kinb Hep can eae ngudn vdn, don gian
hda quy trinh thu tue cho doanh
nghiep vay vd'n. Kiln nghi siia mpt sd
dilu ciia Luat Diu tu, Luat Xdy dyng,
Ludt Dit dai dl tao dilu kien thdng

thoang vd hieu qua cho cdc boat ddng
diu tu vd tang nhanh tdc dp giii ngdn.
Trong mdt sd trudng hpp dae thii (nhu
eho vay hd trp doanh nghiep nudi ed
Ka gidng d ddng bang Sdng Ciiu Long)
thi NHNN nen eho phep cde NHTM
sii dung cac cdng eu thay thi bdo dam
• Xem tiep tr. 62
Tii chinh
THANG
6/2009
TAI CHINH Ol\f)C
TP
A Hhi
NHAP
BIEU
00
2: LU-CTNG KIEU HOI QUA CAC NAM (TRI$U USD)
Ngudn: long cue thdng
ke
4.700
1994
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
2000
2001
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
tl vd
an
sinh
xa

hdi, Viet Nam cdn
di
sau Trung Qudc kha nbilu. Vi vay, ed
ly
do de tin
tudng ngudi Viet Nam
se
cdn Hep tue duy tri mdt
ty
le tilt kiem
eao Kong thdi gian tdi.
Nhan dinh tren diing
vdi xu
hudng dupe
thi
hien tren bilu
dd 1.
Nhin ehung miie tilt kiem eua ngudi
ddn Viet Nam dang trong
xu
hudng
tang
vd
ehua
cd
dd'u hieu
dio
ehilu.
Giai doan 2001-2003,
Hit

kiem
cd
giam xudng
la do
tae ddng eiia chinh
saeh kich
ciu
1999-2003, lam ebo
ty le
tieu dimg ciia
bd gia
dinh tdng
len.
Tuy nbien,
de duy Ki xu
hudng tang
eudng tiet kiem niy, Chinh pbii
can
hit siic chii
y tdi bai
phuong dien
xa
hdi:
Mpt
Ii, can cd
bien phap tang
eudng niem tin eiia dan ehiing ddi
vdi
Chinh phu.
Cd nhu

vdy, ngudi
dan
mdi tie'p tue ung hp nbiing bien phap
va ehinh sdch thiic
day
tilt kiem
eua
Chinh phu. Chinh phii
cin dae
biet
chii
y tdi
cdng cupc chdng tham
nbiing, lang phi,
cii
each hanh chinb
dl
don
gian
boa
tbii
tuc vi day la
nhiing
van dl gay
biic xiie nhit
ddi
vdi ngudi dan.
Hai Id, ciing vdi nhung Hen
bd vl
kinh

tl, ddi
sdng nhdn
dan
dupe
eai
thien
mdt
budc.
Mdt
trao
luu
tieu
diing
da vd
dang xud't hien,
the
hien
qua viee nhap khau may bay cd nhan,
d
td dit
Hen,
qua
viec biing
nd di du
lich
vi
khim ehiia benh dnudc ngoai,
qua viec biing
nd
eae nha bing

v
i dja
dilm
an
ud'ng v.v
Nlu
khdng
ed
nhiing ehinh sdch phii
hpp va nin
tang giao
due ein
thilt, trao
luu Heu
dimg
niy se
thieu
rui y
thue Hit kiem
ciia ngudi ddn.
Ngoai
ra, can luu y li
trong phin
thu nhap ciia
bd gia
dinh, Hen luong
vi
ed
tinh chat luong
ehi

ehiem
khoang tren 80%. Cae khoan chuyen
nhupng hien hanh, trong
dd
phan
Idn
Id
kilu
hdi
chiem
tdi
tren
15%
trong
nam
2007. Trong giai doan
1995
-
2006,
ed
23,4
ty
USD kieu
hdi
dupe chuyen
vl
nude bing
31%
ngudn
vdn FDI vd Idn hon

ngudn
ODA giii ngan. Lupng kilu
hdi
tang
manh
len 5,5 ty
USD
vao nam
2007
va
8 ty USD vdo nam
2008. Chinh
saeh
thu
hiit kilu
hdi eua
Viet Nam
nhiing nam
gin
day
la hit
siie thdng
thoang. Ngudi
dan
hoan toan cdng
khai, minh bach nhan tiln kilu
hdi
ehuyin
qua be
thdng ngan bing

ma
khdng phai giii trinh hay nop bat cii
loai thue
ndo. Tuy
nhien,
cdi nhd
nude
ein ldm
khdng
ehi la tao su
thdng thoang eho ddng kilu hdi chiy
vl
ma
phai khoi dupe tinh cim
va sy
gin
bd
eiia
bd
phdn ngudi Viet Nam
dinh
eu d
nude ngodi,
Iam eho hp
thay
tu
hao
vd ed
trdch nhiem ciing
nhu quyln lpi khi cd ddng gdp cho

td
qud'e thdng
qua
kilu hdi.
Tdi lien tham khdo:
1. Dang Xuan Thanh,
'Vet
kiem hd gia dinh
& Vi$t Nam", Vi$n kinh te Vi$l Nam.
2.
GS.TS. Nguyin Van Thcrang, GS.TS.
Nguyin Ke Tuin, "Kinh
te
Vidt Nam nam
2006
-
Chat lucrng tang tru&ng va hpi
nhap kinh te quoc te". Nha xuSt
bin
dai
hQC
Kinh
te
Quoc dan,
2007.
3.
Harvard
University,
John
F.

Kennedy
School
of
Government,
Mdt khudn khd
chinh saeh phat then kinh te
-
xa hgi cho
Vidt Nam giai doan 2011
-
2020.
4.
tVlodigliani
F
"Vdng d&i, tiet kiem ca nhan
va ciia
cii
cua cac quoc gia. Cac thuyet
trinh tai
li
trao giii thu&ng Nobel ve khoa
hQC
kinh
te
1981-1990". Nxb Chinh
tri
Quoc gia,
H.:2000.
5. Nguyin Ngoc San, 'Tiet kidm
-

dau
tir vi
tang tru&ng kinh te
&
Vi$t Nam", Diin
dan Phit trien
VIQI
Nam
6. Pham Dd
Chi
va Trin Nam Binh, Kinh
te
Viet Nam bu&c
vio
the ky XXI
7. Economic Intellegent
Unit,
Country report
for Vietnam,
2/2009
8.
IMF, Executive Board Concludes 2008 Ar-
ticle IV Consultation with Vietnam,
3/2009
9.
Cass,
David,
"Optimal growth in an Ag-
gregate Model
of

Capital Accumulation",
Review
of
Economics studies Magazine,
32, 1965.
10. Louis Kuijs, How will China's saving
-
investment balance evolve? WB China
Research
Paper,
May 2006.
11.
Mario Gutierres, Andres Solimano,
Sav-
ings, Investment and grovrth in the
global age: Analytical and Policy Issues.
Working Paper
A/.
43, The American
Uni-
versity of Paris.
12.
P.
Mansson, J. Bayoumi and H. Samiel
(1998), International Evidenceon the De-
terminants
of
Private Saving, The World
Bank Economic
Review,

September
13.
Solow,
Robert (1956)
"A
contribution
to
the Theory
of
Economic Growth"
Quar-
terly Journal
of
Economics 70 (Febru-
ary).
14. WB, Taking
Stock,
An Update on
Viet-
nam's Recent Economic Developments.
Report for the
15. Consultative Group Meeting
for
Viet-
nam.
• Tiep theo tr.
48
ludng
Kin Kd
np. Ching ban,

ed the
chap nhan bdng eae
tdi
lieu ddnh
gia
Hn dung
kit
hpp
vdi tin
chap
eua dia
phuong. Nlu nbu tinb khi thi
vd
hieu
qui khoin vay dupe phan Hch
rd
rang
thi ed thi xem xet hd Kd lai suit eho edc
doanh nghiep Kong linh vuc nay.
6. Nha nude nen tang eudng dii ban
"chuong Kinh khuyln khich phdt triln
thi trudng ndi dia",
uu
Hen cho mdt
sd
nganh
ma
Him ndng
diu ra
ndi

dia rat
Idn
va
nganh sii dung nhilu lao ddng.
Cd
thi
neu
ra
eie ngdnh
nbu
det may,
da giay, thii cdng nghiep, nhua
ddn
dung,
chi
biln ndng
san,
thuy
san.
Trude diy, nhilu doanh nghiep qui chii
Kpng vao xud't khau nen
da dl
ngd
thi
trudng ndi dia eho nhilu hang hoi nhdp
khau
Kr
Trung Qud'e, Thai
Lan, Ddi
Loan, Han Qudc Ngdn saeh nhd nude

nen danh ngan khoan
dae
bi?t
cho"Chuong Kinh khuyen khich phdt
Kiln
thi
trudng
npi dia" nhu Id mdt
khoan "kich cau" dae thii. Ddy ed thi coi
Id mdt giai phdp ddn bay tii chinh Kong
bdi eanh suy thodi kinh
tl
todn eau.
$
Tdi lieu tham khdo:
1.
Bio do
ciia Ngan hang Nha nu&c vd
then khai cho vay Hd
tror
Hi
suit.
(4/2009)
2. S& Giao djch chung khoin Thinh phd Hd
Chi Minh (HOSE)
-
Thdng tin thi tnr&ng
giao dich
3. Phin tich thi tnr&ng chung khoin cua
FPTS, thing

4/2009.
62
Til Chinh
THANG
6/2009