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
 !" #$%&'$( )*'
+$#,-  !. !" /
' 0! *123'"4
(5 ! "*'&"36"4
(7&8$!9"48$:;."<!*1*=> "6
'"4(?@1"/#!A-.9B-- : 
$!'C-- '3(74'"D: !%6
*'"!'8E'"4'#!!6(>@"4'
.'"4$EF<!FGA>* H: !%"4
.$IJ6=$.KE*L: !%""1"=!%@6*'6"
/ *=>(7F""DJ$- !3: $.'$I
4:"J'>$:- : $"/(76
!3M6: $.N6- O!9''/EP*
"*=>- D(Q$IRE- !3: $.D
S"4T!9.@J=$N1- 
 !.K6(5@2MP"/.F<!FG"- !9
K "6'!': $" 1"3"/(6
.F<!FG- : $$1!'(
5'@'.*'!3'"4/!D9MUMV
:%O>$I$W:X">$$I!9O!9.$I
'.$I9.F""= J$/!))P6'
$=$!%@"4- /!(5Y"/" :1/ "4"" 
!3: !%"4=$6(
NN"3$%C@'/*Z8".!9'
1*$/$LJM./!MUI'E!2'MV  *Z(
/![W\$]55
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Đầu Tư Tài Chính
CHƯƠNG 1. PHÂN TÍCH VĨ MÔ
1 TÌNH HÌNH KINH TẾ THẾ GIỚI
1.1.1. Tăng trưởng kinh tế toàn cầu
5^)!4"I.NN
/:R$1$(
_PYM 3-E
`aab.*1@!-E=
9)!`aca.F"3'@ 
FE    P    2. 2 !1M%
E!!1.$%&
>!2:./)!
MEF8'/ d:4!e'
!3M6@*#) .
fI/)'$EMV
:%  @  *  >$  A  
'(
?M )!`ac[.'4"g' "1J"'"=
:EK 2)!`ac^.M6"3)P;C8$(%)
Ph]i.i *j*::")!`ac[/"1!^.klW
^.bl(Qmn/"1!Y`.olW`.pl(Q5q6"1!o.rl.
8$2)!(Qst/*@e!u"8"1!)
PF8$FBcl(Q>?E;:N"="')!`ac^.+Q
v<,/:%N>?E/"1!)Pc.`lWc.rl(Q
 /*1K 2.B"1E@`l(

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2014
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2015
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x * W`.[ Wc.p a.k c.c
5I?  Wc.k Wc.` a.p c.a
>?E c.[ c.r c.[ c.a
2K6v a.^ c.b `.p `.r
  : c.o `.a `.^ `.[
!J'" $ r.a [.o [.p r.^
Nhóm 4 Page 3
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
 ^.[ c.^ c.^ `.^
!J'" $Iy k.o k.r k.o k.b
5q6 o.o o.o o.r o.^
z73 [.o [.[ r.[ k.[
v{sv|r k.` r.` [.p r.[
52!1'4 `.b ^.a [.^ r.^
$ `.a c.[ c.r c.k
!J'" $ k.a r.b r.r r.`
1.1.2. Lạm phát

5)!`acc.N}**1!$)-:4
@%'/ ) ."3Y/
- ~s]•5`ac`W`ac^*1!$8$2
2"6M)!/*'!3"!M(
@I- *1!$8$2 "1`ac`W
`ac^S&YMZ=!uT
/E) )"3()!`ac[.*1!$:
)P!8$:HMEF8'4" @"')P>!.:
E@*''/ )0.
1.1.3. Nợ công
Q- E  = 9  €)!  `acc P
I•"g* 3@K!9'4'
EP'MI3()!`ac`D.=9P'
)!g! "1(I•!/=
J*&.j*1$"<:H ‚='Ye"&
%I•(mu:"'"gJ"2.
MI•;"2- CF
-E=9'6I'G!MU$%"<:1M$%&
- '4)!`ac[(
1.1.4. Thị trường chứng khoán
5 4"I..8*'mnN"
)P.e" $%&(
a. Kinh tế Mỹ có dấu hiệu lạc quan
5Y"4)!  BM6*PmndQD$@ :^cƒc`ƒ`ac^.B
M6]X„<M"gP‚ck(rok.kk"!.EH2`k.rl)!`ac^.F
*>$)! :68Ycppr(BM6{…iraa"g)J3`p.kll
)!':Y*1P‚c(b[b.^k"!•BM6 M: K)^b.^l.P‚
[(cok.rp"!((? BM6'") !B*%:
."3- /qs^'F"3"g)†(
Nhóm 4 Page 4

Biểu đồ 3. Chỉ số giá êu dùng thế giới
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
b. Kinh tế Châu Âu có chuyển biến tích cực
5NNCE!"1!.!3M6*- st7.i$
/!N:M $'M- i-''
(BM6vW[a- i$)cbl)!`ac^(BM6*1K - 
: $"&st‡w<)(
c. Kinh tế Châu Á vẫn sung sức
Qv{sv2E$%&')P .@"g1 !9
'"4*'!1.D"A'@
*1K (
1.2 TÌNH HÌNH KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM
1.2.1. Tăng trưởng kinh tế
5)P !/:8$%&:P!8$' >
MSS:"43" C'$MEF8 (7"!'"=
!@E*'+8!*@Y",."*')!`aca.h]i)!`acc)k.`[l.)!
`ac`)r.`rl')!`ac^)r.[`l(?NKI^)!.h]i)r.klƒ)!(
5 "11"  "4#B@"g"B.M"I*'!
)/8$>"='/$4 2DM!NKI- 
v{svˆr.clƒ)!‰`accW`ac^.<xm~Š(5@."8*
1*'.MEF8>8/FE!:46"3)Pˆ?EcŠ(
Bảng 1: Tăng trưởng kinh tế chia theo khu vực giai đoạn 2011-2013(%)
Năm GDP
Nông, lâm nghiệp
và thuỷ sản
Công nghiệp
và xây dựng
Dịch vụ
`acc k.`[ [.a` k.kb k.b^
`ac` r.`r `.kb r.or r.pa

`ac^ r.[` `.ko r.[^ k.rk
( Nguồn: Tổng cục Thống kê)
1.2.2. Lạm phát và lãi suất
? )!K .@N<"J!%@@!*1!$.$:%
"&3$$.BM6@:NKI)!"gE!Y!cb.c^l
)!`accF6p.`cl)!`ac`')!`ac^*1!$P!Ek.a[l(mu
T*gM8"3"gE!Y!colWcbl- )!`accF6ColW
calƒ)!.!uT*gM8 E!CplWc`lƒ)!.*gM8 
EplWcc.rlˆ*O@*'olWplŠ."g1": 
$$>"=&6YI'(?3IM.=$ =
9.='- K6 <"-  !;1
!M(&6"4$'ˆ~]xŠ;/F)*@•
Nhóm 4 Page 5
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
)!`acc.M66")L*'cr.k}t{].6"1cc}t{]•M6
2- )!`ac`*'ck.^}t{]'ca.c}t{]•)!`ac^*'`c.k
}t{]'cc.r}t{]
1.2.3. Xuất nhập khẩu
5NN‹Q "1`accW
`ac^d     )!  `ac`W  `ac^    I
2!1 /ME ".
F8A$"3)P .
8*': $~]x'9
$*@%F8M@Y"
 (‹8Aca"4)!`ac^
"1  cab  }  t{].  ) cr.`l  M 
N)!(Q!1'/
>$Aca"1cab.`}t{].
)cr.`lMN)!`ac`(
>$M@!"1cbot{]Ta.`lJ!1'/ F8

A(
1.2.4. Thị trường chứng khoán
)!`ac^K "'9‚PE BM6)86
"`c.polˆx:<FŠ'cb.b`lˆj‹x:<FŠ(x:<F)!1qLc.
M "/"')*1.J$."u*'*<W$MFI:'-6
!uT!BM6-"3K raa"!(5"/
j‹x:<F>$M/*'E"4)!.r'Y
ca"6)!({&$%- O!9ˆcŠ)P
:%"="A!16)!•ˆ`Š*1!$'}"=!M6
'ˆ^Š"."4$"$%&*'2MP
" !P*='$!1( ?M )!
`ac[.6EO!9-  !'J"'$%
)P0.MUP'@"48$:;2M@
(%.ˆcŠ'MUG!8$:;jˆ C"3KŠ$%
 ! "'9K $@"84•ˆ`Š!uT*gM8"=‰
H:NP!8$.2"2!)!`ac^ˆu8$2Š•ˆ^Š}
"=:MU$%J"'"B9K`l"g"A*I!*L"42.
1(5<"/."4'"=‰HMUP'F
'I!"!)!`ac[@9CK8$:;(5@!
'"/.6*@.: $PMSMU1 &'8
*=2Y"/8$:;'"4H* 'EI(
Nhóm 4 Page 6
Nguồn: tổng cục thống kê
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
1.2.5. Triển vọng kinh tế Việt Nam 2014 – 2015
a. Thuận lợi
• h'/ "=:9/"3*.>!E!(Œ?:
)!`ac[W`acr.)*=E!2cl'a.bl.'/
$)*=E!2a.^l'a.pl(
• 74' ):)P62)!(QE

)D"4 '."4I#MUE
E$$MZ=MEF8: "g  
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: E"=)M8'KE(
CHƯƠNG 2. PHÂN TÍCH NGÀNH
2.1 CHIẾN LƯỢC CHỌN NGÀNH :
2.1.1. Tóm tắt triển vọng ngành năm 2014:
5<@*L{<‡ MF C- '
@(
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"4:'1/F8)!.O
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Nhóm 4 Page 7
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
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2.1.2. Tăng trưởng tài chính năm 2013 :
Nhóm 4 Page 8
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
2.1.3. Lựa chọn ngành
5 8T !''3>$MI'
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$=*1"3- #MU"3
!1!U2" !(>M"3- '
I6O!9W/T!M!M- $-W*'`I6MU
K""M$ !/'M$- Y
'-  !/@(q $IO!9P@D "g
8"=88$/).;/')P!1.
/KE: !*=> (
5" ./!'/KE: 6

#"="/H.!)$*'FI:. M.
$A!. W N.:=.'@:.-ME.:! f"
NN ! Y K #!)$-
/!' MS$"./!D9" MK 
I!* H*=- !N"/!'"4:'1.'
$C-M$'*I:'('/!"gK"H`'
/H"4*'/!'$A!' W N(7I*' /!
''@91E!"6‰: (N>;$
 "1-E (
2.2 PHÂN TÍCH NGÀNH NHỰA- BAO BÌ
2.2.1. Tầm quan trọng của ngành Nhựa – Bao bì :
 *'!3'*=-  !6"3)P
 )!P*1"I(' /}H[([blM''
9$3" ' C!3'$%=4$
Nhóm 4 Page 9
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
1- '(' *'!3ca'"='
@$:/)P6'J".F8A!1.'/E
)1 6(528'  !
 .  N" !}H*8ˆ^blŠ'#*'$I'/
!1F8A*8ˆkklŠ(ME$A!Y | N"=:*'!
>*MEF8*1>:%/$$4K H'$%%"M6
#$%%M$- ''*O
•"."V.R9. 9>E.-ME.9$(
2.2.2. Tình hình trong nước :
5<- j$3  !.)!`ac^.' "g
F8A"1J!1`.`cr}t{](5"/.!1F8AME$A!
 "1c.bab}t{].)c^.^lM`ac`(@*8:Ž*'!u'/
'!*=n> "g/F8A 2MF8AME$A!
 4D(%.!1F8A8:Ž@*"12[ao

t{].)`rl*='rol!1M)!`ac`(m3M6ME$A!/
!1F8A)!1D ˆ`olŠ•=e.> '"&
 ˆ`k.[lŠ•*16'$%.S$.!#. ˆ`o.plŠ(7u.[ME
$A!*'D •8!.$.!' •ME$A!>."//'E
1/!1F8A"1@crat{](j1.ME$A!- 
 !"g/!u1crc@.E"Ce
8*= .@An>6>?E.mn.7.st(5)!
`ac^./^>?E.st'mn" *'- '
 !(5<"/.>?E*'/!1F8A 8
[aa.pbt{].)cc.`lM)!`ac`.!cp.plJ!1
F8A- '•j Q‰"1cort{]."^.)b.ol'
!b.klJ!1•st"1}*)PNKIY^Wk.clƒ)!(
)!`ac[F8A- ' MU/!)PNYc^.rWck.rl
M)!`ac^(
2.2.3. Triển vọng ngành nhựa Việt Nam
5<"- j$3  !ˆivŠ.ME$A! - 
 !1" /23*!P3$4F8A(@I
*' 4"I.ME$A! - 5q69CŽ !' 
TME$A! -  !(
?3952Y $@:q1$'  !")!
`a`a.4!N")!`a`r(5<"/.)!`acr.$8"8MEF89
$' "1ob(raa}"&.)!`a`a"1cbc(roo}"&')!`a`r
*'^pa(aaa}"&(m%@!1F8A`acr*'`.cr}t{].")!
`a`a*'[.^}t{]6"3)PEcrl(q1' C
T!:28/!ME$A! <E!}H/!
ME$A!  N'  :%.):4}H/! >*FI
Nhóm 4 Page 10
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
:' n>(m3"$- ' 
 !*'"4MEF89!;.$%.'.

$!19$FV*L$*.$E' 5<?39
52.:"4MEF89!;.' 4"=
"g"4"6'2H"!ˆ 6:%"4*'brl
J!"4Š
2.2.4. Quan điểm đầu tư
'  W N "="C!):*'!3
*MEF8ME$A!Y ("uME$A!! 8
- /!'@: $ ''/E) "J
":N*=>"3- $"4'(?@1"/"
- '  8$2N.2"6 '"F<!FG
! '(• /: $*8*'d?mi.{x.5i.iQf"
" @!@M'(
2.3 PHÂN TÍCH NGÀNH THỰC PHẨM :
2.3.1. Tầm quan trọng ngành thực phẩm
5$A!*'!3'K H'"4- 8N!3K6 '(
'$"$4&1- P/)6
!/:NMM6(j2 .'$A!#"//$9e'
 9K ME$A!/2!1'F8A 
D$I ME*='h]i.'#*'*OD"4'
)!4"I
2.3.2. Tình hình trong nước
)!  )!  K .  '  
$A!'"&6)P E 
M6*='8*=."=" *'
'/!)*."u*'1
'$6'8.2/!
M6' '"= E ( 
 "1`accW`ac^.6"3)P : 
"3Y^.oW[.^l(5<M6*- ?3 9
2.""!'.'"g !

}*crlh]i';" /F)(]R'$A!)!`ac^
)PJ"EMEF8'!@%(BM6MEF8
$A!) 8' cc(`ac^"1cb.rlD$*#cc)
Pr.olM‰)!(' "5ca(`ac^.BM6@%-
'$A! 2"6M!uT- '9
$1ˆc`cMcccŠBM6&$A!*1
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Đầu Tư Tài Chính
8$2ˆcak.cMcap.[Š8M4"g"=E'>$-
P*O$A!(
2.3.3. Triển vọng ngành thực phẩm Việt Nam
5<5J!M: K6ˆ?mxŠ. !*')
"3:IM64bp." $4T!"3J* "3."/
*'}*)P@- @:"1blˆ "1`accW`a`aŠW!
@% 8v{sv( 5<:- ?3952.M@%$A!
-  !")!`ackMU$%)r.clƒ)!."1E`p.rB"9
* mn(5"/.'9$$A!"/3$-  !MU)[.^l
*='ca.[l: M6'( 5H"6'"&6
-  !#MM- (7&6/&$%D"=6"4
'."/J>*'!3M62] <.vM i •
?<X<<Mˆvi?Š' *M<(] "1Y)!`acc")!`ack.
: M6- 'MU)o.rl.C: MU)ca.rlƒ)!!'@
:S"4MV:%*1"&6/ 2(5"/."&69/
&"=:MU"1b.`l6"3)P: ')! 
"1`accW`ack( @I/M)P!1!U'"=*LE*'
$J".}*@:).F"9/ '
').6"4')'M6*=:*''(mu
."&6'$A!T!/!''@9E
PP8*L:'(
2.3.4. Quan điểm đầu tư

'5$A!/6"3)P6'/:C2"6J".
"=J$‘$C‘ '"3- 
@=$"4:'1(5/!J$'$A!.
: $/E))P 'NN'*'!1/F<!
FG"4m.Q].vi
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Đầu Tư Tài Chính
CHƯƠNG 3. PHÂN TÍCH CÔNG TY
3.1 CÔNG TY CỔ PHẦN BAO BÌ DẦU THỰC VẬT VMPACK (VPK)
3.1.1. Lịch sử hình thành:
9J$4? N]4>"='*>$@2MP6/$- 
J"99]4>j2*mn$A! !ˆ !<FŠ.9
J$4]4>5v.9J$4]4>5I?N.9
J$4{  !ˆ !*Š.>$'I3'$4

W5a[)!`aak99K 7137&J"9$
')6JM6"*(
W'`cc`)!`aak9@!' :$@
"4@J$iQ15I!h :'$6j&m
<K"M6ooƒt?QWhi’'ckcc)!`aak'9M6
obpƒ55h]jmW’'aoc`)!`aak@!(
W7\"6caƒ`aap*'ba}"&(
3.1.2. Lĩnh vực kinh doanh:
- {EF8.!  N'$A!(
- m !!/.>@*' N(
- ]%2!1(
- x8 N(
- Q: !u'$A!(
-  is5•S$.D'K  is5(
-   j]is•S$''  j]is

- 5 M“(
- ? N'$A!ˆ:4).M .-ME.(((Š(
3.1.3. Vị thế công ty:
j .9" Y1*>$$4'2ME$A!(
5<".9/E)$>6'6
:IMEF8"1.8*=ME$A!6P"$
"=@4- '*./@J@(9" /
*='J"d 9]45>j2*mn$A!
 !.9J$4]45>5v.9J$4]45>5I
?N.9]4)h*:<j$<'?€.9]45>\I.9
J$4{  !f
3.1.4. Chiến lược phát triển và đầu tư:
!%@*'*9"E!E8*=ME$A!':%6
'.!P3$'9/('!%@
@9C/")!MEF8.ME$A!.
2.IM(
Nhóm 4 Page 13
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
3.1.5. Phân tích tài chính:
a. Nhóm các chỉ số thể hiện khả năng thanh toán
`acc `ac` `ac^
B  M6     

iQ
c(^ `(` `([
B  M6     
 
iQ
a(o c(r c(o
QE) - 9EK )! )""u

BM6 'BM6  (5Y)!`acc)!`ac^E
) )4`*4`.[(7"/:8$
- 9E) - 9
b. Nhóm các tỉ số phản ánh khả năng hiệu quả hoạt động
`aca `acc `ac`
CK '&

k(o b(a o(p
C  K   
E$E
c`(r cc(k cc(c
CK 'ME c(b `(a `(a
BM6KE*L'ME &!'&.E$EP!
6'):4K )!(5JK 9>*=9
4"E!E6KE*L6'&'1-YE$E*'
:86- 9(9*9:N!)P*=> 
D$I KEMV:%'MEK )!(BM6CK E
$E- 9E!Ycc(kF6cc(c9"*1PN/*':
M"g- 9E@" /)(
c. Nhóm các tỉ số về khả năng sinh lời
`acc `ac` `ac^
=  @  6
-MP
iQ a(r[ a(^k a(^`
{x c(^c c([b c(rk
jvi a(oc a(po c(o
=@'ME iQ a(^r a(`o a(`[
{x a(p^ c(`c c(^^
jvi a([^ a(r[ a(rp
‡”v iQ ck(k^ `b([^ `^(`p

{x c[(br c`(cp cc(k
jvi a(ak Wa([o k([b
‡”s iQ `p(p^ [a(p[ ^c(cb
{x [[(pk ^[(co ^c(`p
jvi a(cb Wc(`k c`(or
QE)M*- iQ)P"K Y)!/$4E!
F6:-E'6)!`acc(5>9;Y"="3
Nhóm 4 Page 14
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
)P‡”v'‡”s 2M: $'('
BM6=@'ME=@6-M‚8$"=--
98$M: $'
d. Nhóm các thông số thị trường
`acc `ac` `ac^
si{ iQ ^(`kk k(apa r(boo
{x ca(pro k(p^` o(aro
jvi r`[ [ao r^k
iƒs iQ `(ac [(`o r(ko
{x c(rr ^(rp r(c
jvi k(^ c`(a[ o(p
iƒs- 9):4K Y)!NC)P- '"4
'9*' (si{/!)P ')!`ac`)!
`ac^/$4%*1""/9EP*S!"NH- '"4
'2* $%&
3.1.6. Nhận định đầu tư:
\'!39MEF8 N*''"4-  !(Q
:  N':4>*''/!)*!' !*'!3
/:IM6"9')P (: - 9J"
)!)!.: '*=>*9"1"=)P (B
M6'6- 9M9'E)

: 'KE*L6- 9("u"!I•.9MU:N
"="')P'MU$6)! !e
/)*8*1"')P($I@.D9HmtvJ
$iQ"4':'1(
3.2 CÔNG TY LÂM SẢN YÊN BÁI (CAP)
3.2.1. Lịch sử hình thành
9J$4\I!9ME5$A!’@?I*''!8
’@?."='*>$Y)!cpo`.")!cpp["='*>$*1'"J@*'
9*I!9ME$A!’@?<q"M6r^ƒq7Wt?
'apƒakƒcpp[- – I:IB’@?(5Yacƒcaƒ`aa[9
"="JNMPY: $'M 9J$4
<K"M6`okƒq7Wt?- -t} I:IB’@?'
`oƒabƒ`aa[(91"3<h8>")L: 9J
$4M6cka^aaaa[r'acƒcaƒ`aa['7)L "J*4cM6cka^aaaa[r'
ckƒrƒ`aao:{PQ1'74B’@?8$(
W'apWacW`aab.9J$49ME$A!’@?
 :1I! :j'3(
Nhóm 4 Page 15
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
3.2.2. Lĩnh vực kinh doanh
W. 9.: *I!ME•
W. 9.: 9ME$A!•
WQ: F8>$A$%.>..'J=$•
WQ: :%:*.2!1J=$.:%M1.''.
@)$C(
3.2.3. Vị thế công ty
{: $'.9*'!3: $
/*=P/%MP''!T! @" '/@*:&
:'*OMEF8*I!9ME(*- 9P
#2’~v”"6"6''1"3

*O8"F8A. 9'!gF8A'3MS(
' 9*91"="6*'!)(2MP>8n>
"= "4" "3#39I@/N"3@!9 .
)!!. !(
3.2.4. Chiến lược phát triển và đầu tư:
*=$':'1d
—˜"$6" )*MEF8- :IMEF88
/(i9MEF8M 3MSd?3.&
9$(
—@$M ''!$!1- "
$2.!*- 9(
3.2.5. Phân tích tài chính
a. Nhóm các chỉ số thể hiện khả năng thanh toán
`acc `ac` `ac^
B  M6   

c([o c(br c(o
B  M6   
 
a(co a(`r a(r`
BM6E) - 92"6J"(BM6 
/FE!Yc(br)!`ac`F6c(o)!`ac^"9
: "3e@9"*1(BM6  - 9)
P 8) E=S1- 96
2K Y)!(
b. Nhóm chỉ số thể hiện khả năng hoạt động
`acc `ac` `ac^
CK '& o(ob p(br b(pp
Nhóm 4 Page 16
Đầu Tư Tài Chính

CK E$E c`(r cc(k cc(^
CK 'ME `(bo `(ob `(k`
- BM6CK '&.CK E$E'CK '
ME- 92"6J"/$4E!')!`ac^#9
"(CK '&Yp(br)!`ac`E!F6b(pp)!`ac^
8"H'&- : $:-E
c. Nhóm các chỉ số về khả năng sinh lời
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3.2.6. Nhận định đầu tư
vi"  "1"4@$*g /MU)!1
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CHƯƠNG 4. LỰA CHỌN VÀ ĐÁNH GIÁ DANH MỤC ĐẦU TƯ
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Nhóm 4 Page 17
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
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4.1 ƯỚC LƯỢNG CÁC GIÁ TRỊ
4.1.1. Khả năng sinh lợi
Tỷ suất lợi tức hàng ngày (R
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Trong quá trình ra quyết định đầu tư, ngoài quan tâm đến tỷ suất kỳ vọng của
chứng khoán nhà đầu tư còn chú trọng đến mức độ rủi ro của chứng khoán đó, cân
đối giữa lợi tức và rủi ro.
Nhóm 4 Page 18
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
4.1.2. Đo lường rủi ro:
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Hiệp phương sai :

5<KE@<F<* "=dˆ‡
c
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Hệ số tương quan giữa hai chứng khoán:

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σσ
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c.` 
š
a.c[[ror(5<*L @H/M62K I!*''
6N/6/ "=-./8*'M62K  `
Nhóm 4 Page 19
σ =
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σ
−
c c ` `
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Đầu Tư Tài Chính
*'G@/E!"=-."&:;"M"3*=
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Các tỷ số VPK CAP
Tỷ suất lợi tức kì vọng (%) a.cor[ a.`oa^
Phương sai(%) a.abc^ a.cr[^
Độ lệch chuẩn (%) `.brc` ^.p`bo
Hiệp phương sai a.aaack`
Hệ số tương quan a.c[[ror
4.2 XÂY DỰNG ĐƯỜNG BIÊN PHƯƠNG SAI BÉ NHẤT VÀ ĐƯỜNG
BIÊN MARKOWITZ
4.2.1. Đường biên phương sai bé nhất
 7@$2M e88E: !%=$/
$2M e82!BM8M*="==$Y
 iQ'vi(
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*'iQ'vi(
5BH- vi: !%*'X

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Bước 2 :‹"}HY*1- : !%"A(52
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Bước 4: U"@$2M G8(
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"="@$2M G8(
Nhóm 4 Page 20
Đầu Tư Tài Chính

4.2.2. Đường biên Markowitz
m3'MEu!3: !%"4"=F<!*'KE9/8
N!3'MEu!3: !%"4'/!-ˆu-8$
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ˆuBM8*=NH 2Š*1/-8$2(
7@m Xw "8EM=$68//
'ME(j "@m Xw"1:!3>$=$- : !%
"4/BM8*= 8!Z!-.u/!-8$
8"6!Z!-(
7N!"="@m Xw.@*'D "N!: !%"4
/$2M G8(

7: !%"4ˆiŠ/-8$8ˆ$2M G8ŠN}H
"4'J$iQ.vi"=F"*'d
hHvˆ›
$• 
sˆ‡
i
ŠŠ*'"!/$2M G8: !%"4"g
H(
5N!X
c
M 
MinRRCovwwww
p
⇒++= Š.ˆ`
`c`c
`
`
`
`
`
c
`
c
`
σσσ
j d
( ) ( )
( )
MinRRCovwwwww
p

⇒−++−+=
`c
`
cc
`
`
`
cc
`
c
`
c
`
.``c
σσσ
hE'' "=d
( )
( )
`c
`
`
`
c
`c
`
`
c
.`
.
RRCov

RRCov
w
−+
−
=
σσ
σ

c`
c ww −=
y$:%9@ /
^`a[ob.aa.kopr``c
a.kopr``
a.aaack``a.a^p`boa.a`brc`
a.aaack`a^p`bo.a
`
``
`
c
=−=
=
×−+
−
=
w
w
{ d›
$
ša.a`[rbrš`.[rbrl
Nhóm 4 Page 21

Đầu Tư Tài Chính
sˆ‡
i
ŠšŒ
c
—sˆ‡
c
Š™Œ
`
—sˆ‡
`
Š
sˆ‡
i
Šša.aa`arb a.`arbl
>"!v/H "3dˆa.a`[rbr•a.aa`arbŠ.v*': !%m"=
T"!!'"e@"&(
i4"&Y"!vP*@*'"@m Xw
: !%"4T!@"@KE*': !%
8$23-W*=68M8E: !%1'Y`*1Q
c.`('"4/H8N: !%"4'T!@"@KE
'.3M61-- '"4
4.3 XÁC ĐỊNH DANH MỤC ĐẦU TƯ
4.3.1. Xác định danh mục đầu tư tối ưu của hai chứng khoán
7 K""4/M&1- 'ME$-.@D
4F""@KE.M "/.3'!"31-!'/
$IJ6 : !%"4-: !%"4$-(
] !%"46ˆiŠ*'$"! "$IJ6v\"
@m XwM M6/"v\*'*8ˆ{! FŠ
5}M8*=- 'ME$-*'blƒ)!ša.a```lƒ'

5 /M6/- "v\
P
fP
RRE
S
σ
−
=
Šˆ
ˆcŠ
7{
! F
N{£ˆX
c
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aŠ
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ˆ =
′
−
=
P
fP
RRE
S
σ
Nhóm 4 Page 22
ĐƯỜNG BIÊN MARKOWITZ
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
5 /d






=+
×××+×+×=
×+×=
c
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Šˆ`ŠˆcŠˆ
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`c`c
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WW
RRWWWW
REWREWRE
P
P
σσσ


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


=+
×−××+×−+×=
×−+×=
c
aaack`.aŠcˆ`a^p`bo.aŠcˆa`brc`.a
aa`oa^.aŠcˆaacor[.aŠˆ
`c
cc
``
c
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`
c
`
cc
WW
WWWW
WWRE
P
P
σ
 ˆ`Š






=+
+×−×=
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c
aacr[^.aaa`ok^.aaa`a^`.a
aaap[p.aaa`oa^.aŠˆ
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c
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c
`
c
WW
WW
WRE
P
P
σ
aacr[^.aaa`ok^.aaa`a^`.a
aaap[p.aaa`[bc.a
c
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c
c
+×−×
×−
=
WW
W

S
ˆ—Š
\8"1'!>8- ˆ—Š'Ta "=d
a
aacr[^.aaa`ok^.aaa`a^`.a`
Šaa`ok^.aaa[ak[.aˆŠaaap[p.aaa`[bc.aˆ
aacr[^.aaa`ok^.aaa`a^`o.aaaap[p.a
c
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c
cc
c
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c
=
+−
−×−
−+−−
WW
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š•
aŠaa`ok^.aaa[ak[.aˆŠaaap[p.aaa`[bc.aˆŠaacr[^.aaa`ok^.aaa`a^`.aˆaacbpb.a
ccc
`
c
=−×−−+−×− WWWW
š•
k
c

k
cap`k^bp.^ca[kakpo.o
−−
×=× W
š•Xcša.r`krpošr`.kkl
š•X`šcWXcša.[o^[a^š[o.^[l

{! Fša(aoorbc
›
$
ša(a`rr^k
sˆ‡
i
Šša(aa``a^
4.3.2. Xác định danh mục đầu tư kết hợp giữa tài sản rủi ro và tài
sản phi rủi ro.
Tình huống: Nếu bạn có 100 triệu, bạn sẽ đầu tư như thế nào vào các cổ phiếu
và tín phiếu kho bạc, giả định giá cổ phiếu là giá đóng cửa ngày 28/02/2014? Giả
định thị trường Việt Nam không cho phép bán khống.
Nhóm 4 Page 23
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
hHˆŠ*': !%=$ 'ME-'$-
D9*''"4/M61-vš^.r
Ta có hàm hữu dụng : U = E(R
c
) – 0,005*A*σ
c
2
(1)
Trong đó:

vdjM61-- '"4
sˆ

Šd5}M8*=- : !%"4&!'ME-''ME$-
(
‡
•
d5}M8*=- 'ME$-(

`
c
σ
di2M - : !%"4&!'ME-''ME$-(
d5}H"4''ME-(
cWd5}H"4''ME$-(
sˆ‡

Šš‡
•
™—¡sˆ‡
$
Š|‡
•
¢ˆ`Š'›
š
—›
$
ˆ^Š
5 ˆ`Š.ˆ^Š'ˆcŠ.*8"1'!>c"6" / :% "=d
lb.bkbkba^a.a

rr^k.`r.^ac.a
a```.a``a^.a
ac.a
Šˆ
``
==
××
−
=
−
=
P
fP
A
RRE
y
σ
>šbk.blˆB*"4''ME-Š
'B*"4''ME$-dcWšc^.`l
5 '9 "= tša.cab``rl
sˆ‡

Šša.cp[`l
›

š`.`ckrl
>$I@D9/KE"4M23M d
TÀI SẢN
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5{‡–x‡” bk.bl bk.b
WiiQ [r.ocl [r.oc ^^.^ c^o`
Wivi [c.apl [c.ap `b c[ko
5{ijx‡‡ c^.`l c^.`
NJ$iQ"=@!' :@M'j”{s5I!
h :'$6j&m'J$vi"= :@
M'j‹I! :j'3@<K" :
-  I!@N'"4MU :<*9d
{'j‹d\9“dc*9šcaai\9*Žd "-c*9dcWppi
{'j”{sd\9“dc*9šcai\9*Žd "-c*9dcWpi
5@."6*9*Ž'"4B/9.
9"= :K M'.Tpal- ' :(]M6
†8!$'"I.*9J$e*1-MP
Nhóm 4 Page 24
Đầu Tư Tài Chính
/N&1!g.M @*@%!'9"=(j2 .'"4
3$*1.*9*Ž9e.9N.MU/!3*=J$"/)@
.N9 :"=(]"//!K" :<*9“
MU"4M d
TÀI SẢN
ĐẦU TƯ
TỶ
TRỌNG

SỐ CỔ
PHIẾU
GIÁ ĐÓNG CỬA
NGÀY 28/02/2014
(1000đ)
SỐ TIỀN
(triệu
đồng)
5{‡–x‡” bk.bl b[.b`c
WiiQ [r.ocl c^oa ^^.^ [r.k`c
Wivi [c.apl c[aa `b ^p.`aa
5{ijx‡‡ c^.`l c^.`
4.3.3. Xác định đường biên hiệu quả
7$IJ6=$: !%"46-ˆiŠ: !%
"4$-ˆ~ŠH*'"@KE(5=$'"@
KEP'"†"K ‡
•
'$FD"@m Xw1
"!i
Nếu thị trường cho phép bán khống :
>.caa"&D9"4bk.b"&''ME-
`iQ'vi'c^.`"&''ME$-$
1!'9 !=8N'(7&.KE@
<F<*'U*1"&8.$G$6."@
KE': !%"46;9 "J(j /.6
91@!3: !%"4=$/}*$4P@- 2
: !%1(]>.$IJ6"4;#.9EPN
"KE"4- D9(
Nhóm 4 Page 25