Energy transition roadmap presentation

Nhien Ngo

Hanoi, 20 July 2023
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• Overview Vietnam’s Clean Energy Transition
• Global and National Commitments
• Different targets: NDC – PDP8 – JETP

• Clean Energy Transition Roadmap
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Technological Feasibility
Cost and Affordability
Energy Security
Grid Integration and Stability
Environmental Impact
Policy and Regulatory Framework
Stakeholder Engagement

2


Hanoi, 20 July 2023

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Installed capacity 2011 – 2022

Installed capacity 2022
(Total: 78,8 MW)

GW

77

80

69

70

17

60

55

50

39

40

34

30

23
20

43

10

25

18

28

45

49

17

4

19

Biomass
356
1%

17
Solar
16567
21%

5

Import
619
1%
Coal
25302
32%

5
22

20

78.8 GW

21

22

21
Wind
4667
6%

17
16

13

12

Oil
1579
2%

55%

10
0
2011

2012

2013

Coal

2014

Oil

2015

Gas

2016

Hydro

2017

Wind

2018

Solar

2019

Biomass

2020

Import

2021

2022

includes
hydro, wind
& solar

Hydro
22345
28%

Gas
7398
9%

Source: VIET’s analyze based on the data published by EVN Jan 2023

4


TWh

Power generation by sources 2011 - 2022

Power generation by sources 2022
(Total 268 TWh)

300

Average annual growth 4%/year

Average annual growth 11%/year
250

237
6

243
11

255
30

Other
4.1
2%

RE
34.8
13%

268
35

includes
hydro, wind
& solar

217
200

195
Gas
29.5
11%

180

161
150

100

48%

142
104

117

126

Hydro
95.0
35%

50

0
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Other

2016
RE

2017
Hydro

2018
Gas

2019
Coal

2020

2021

2022

Coal
105.0
39%

Source: VIET’s analysis based on the data published by EVN Jan 2023

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Installed capacity (GW) and share (%) by

market participation

Share of power capacity based on
ownership in 2022
Import
0.6
1%

Imported power
plants, 0.8, 1%
Strategic
hydro power
plants, 8.9, 11%

EVN
8.9
11%

EVNGENCO 2
4.6
6%

Private
33.1
42%

EVNGENCO 3
8.4
11%

Direct trading
power plants,
30.9, 38%
Indirect
trading power
plants, 40.4,
50%

EVNGENCO 1
7.6
9%
BOT
7.7
10%

TKV
1.8
2%

PVN
6.1
8%

Source: VIET’s analyze based on the data published by EVN Jan 2023

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POWER PRODUCTION AND DEMAND BY AREA
(BILLION KWH)

Demand

800
600

95.89

121.86

123.19

121.39

Production

North - Central transmission volume (GWh)

400
200
0
1

2

3

4

5

6

North to Centre

7

8

9

10

11

10

11

Centre to North

53.78

Centre – South transmission volume (GWh)
4000
24.48

3000
2000
1000
0

1
NORTH

CENTRE

SOUTH

Source: VIET’s analyze based on the data published by EVN NLDC Jan 2023

2

3

4

5

Centre to South

6

7

8

9

Southe to Centre

7

2022 Transitioning project (VND/kWh)

Solar farm: 1.184,9
Floating solar: 1.508,27
Onshore wind: 1.587,12
Offshore wind: 1.815,95

9.21 GW solar (150 plants)
7.66 GW RTS (104k systems)

5.46 GW wind (105 plants)

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Technology

Ceiling price
(VND/kWh)

Solar farm

1.184,9

Floating solar

1.508,27

Onshore wind

1.587,12

Offshore wind

1.815,95

Source: MOIT, Decision 21/QD-BCT dated 7 Jan 2023

Source: EVN, updated to 14 Jul 2023
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Capacity of plants participate in power market by 2022

• By end of 2021, 47.3
GW (61% total system
capacity) participated
in power market

• 2.9 GW expected to
join directly in 2022
• Plants <30W and RE is
not obligated to
participate

16.0

14.00
12.00

Capacity (GW)

• 29.3 GW directly
participated
• 18 GW indirectly
participated

16.00

10.00
8.7
7.6

8.00
6.00

5.4

5.2

4.00
1.9

2.00

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.00
Coal power

Gas turbin

Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Strategic Multi(reservoir
(reservoir
(reservoir purpose hydros
regulated >1 regulated > 2 regulated <2
(SMHP) &
week)
days to 1 week)
days)
hydros
operated with
SMHP
Direct participation

Source: VIET’s analyze based on the Decision 97/QD-DTDL dated 31/12/2021 of ERAV

BOT

In industrial

park and sell
surplus power

Imported

Indirect participation

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Hanoi, 20 July 2023
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Prime Minister announced that Vietnam will develop and
implement strong mitigation measures with its resources,
together with international collaboration and support to
reach Net zero emissions in 2050.

122 countries committed to reducing methane emissions
from human activity in all sectors by -30% by 2030 compared
to 2020.

46 countries signed a declaration to promote electricity
generation from clean energy sources and transition of
unabated coal power by the 2030s and 2040s
145 countries signed a commitment to stop and reverse
deforestation by 2030 while ensuring sustainable
development and promoting displacement to include rural
areas .

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NDC’s BAU for 2030 was calculated based on electricity demand and power sources in PDP VII revised (same as BAU in NDC 2020)
•

73% GHG emissions~ 678.4 MtCO2eq from energy

•

49% GHG emissions ~ 452.3 MtCO2eq from “Energy industry” ~ “power sector”

•

Total installed capacity~ 129.5 GW (of which: 55.3 GW coal power; 19 GW gas; 12 GW solar, and 6 GW wind).
Comparison of total emissions in 2030 under BAU scenario, Commitment to reduce with domestic resources
and Commitment to reduce with international support

1200

Total emissions (MtCO2eq)

1000
800

140.3
46.3
112.1

928 MtCO2

928 MtCO2

600
400

452.3

200

26.4
88.1

0
-200

49%
49%

Reduction

146.3
112.4
37.6
99.7

782 MtCO2
782 MtCO2

Total emissions after reduction

403.7

Industrial Process
Waste

90.5
16.9
61.2

524 MtCO2 LULUCF
524 MtCO2

420.6
287.3

111.6
-49.2

14.7
77.5
100.8
(81.7)

11.3
68.8
84.1
(95.8)

BAU

Unconditional (-15.8%)

Conditional (-43.5%)

Nguồn: NDC cập nhật tháng 11/2022

Agriculture
Energy industry
Household, agriculture and services (energy)
Transportaion
Manufacturing & construction

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• G7 + DM + NO to mobilize $7.75
billion in public sector financing at more
attractive terms than private capital markets.
• A consortium of private financial institutions,
the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero
(GFANZ) to raise at least $7.75
in private financing.

billion

• VN Power

sector CO2 emissions to
peak at 170 Mt in 2030 instead of 240 Mt
in 2035.

• VN to limit coal power capacity to 30.2 GW
by 2030 from a projected 37 GW.
• Renewable sources including hydroelectricity
will account for at least 47% of electricity
production in 2030.

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TWh

JETP’s emission reduction goal in power sector

JETP target on share of RE

600

300

567

240 Mt

250
RE (incl. hydro)
account for at least
47% power generation

200

CO2 emission (Mt)

500
400
300

268

200
266.5

170 Mt

150

Shift of
peak emissions

100
50

37
GW

30,2
GW

100
0

129.8

0

JETP
2022

RE (inl. hydro)

2030

Other sources

Before JETP

Coal

Gas

LNG *

* Emissions estimated by VIETSE
Source: VIETSE plotted based on JETP Declaration

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PDP8 - Power sector's emission after 2030
Compatible with NZE 2050

Power sector's emissions in 2030
NDC - 15.8%

450

PDP8

JETP

450

420.6

400

400

350

350
287.3

MtCO2

300
MtCO2

NDC - 43.5%

254 (max)

250
200

204

170

(min)

150
100

Conditional

300
250
200

Max emissions

254
204

150
100

50

50

0

0
2030

Min emissions

31

27
2030

2050

Conditions to 170 Mt peak emissions
Receiving strong supports (financial, technologies and governance) of IPG of JETP
Source: NDC updated 11/2022
JETP Vietnam Declaration />Decision No. 500/QD-TTg dated 15/05/2023 of the Prime Minister

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PDP8

KB_JETP

KB_NZE

KB_NDC

296

198
173
158

198
170

252
189
144

JETP

MtCO2

259

154
131
90

77
43

2025

170

254

2030

2035

2040

30

115

30

2045

2050

30
30

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2022 good hydro + new renewables =
48% carbon free electricity
RE
34.8
13%

Other
4.1
2%

Gas
29.5
11%
Hydro
95.0
35%

PDP8
May 2023

Coal
105.0
39%

Source: VIETSE data presented using JETP Declaration, EVN data as reference

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Source: VIETSE data presented using JETP Declaration and energy finance data as reference

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Source: VIETSE data presented using JETP Declaration and energy finance data as reference

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