DIEM NWUBI KII\H TE M M 2 0 1 9 ^ VA T R I E I \ VO\G 1\AM 2 0 2 0

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<i><b>DIEM NWUbi K I I \ H TE M M 2 0 1 9 </b></i>

<i><b>^ </b></i>

<b>VA T R I E I \ VO]\G 1\AM 2 0 2 0 </b>

TS. NGUYEN MINH PHONG* _ThS. NGUYEN IRAN MINH TRi*

<i>N</i>

<i>am 20191a nam thai lien tiepcd niidcdat toan bo 12chitieu kehoqch chuyeu, trongdo 5 chi tieu vU(it kehoqch, vdi Udc GDP cd nam tang 6,8-6,9%. Viet Nam thugc top c6 mUc GDP nam 2019 tang trUdngcao din ddu khu vi/c vd thegidi, dUdc cot la quocgia cd ne'n kinh teon dinh vd tang triidng nhanh, thevd lUc khong ngUngdUdc cungco; uy tin quae te dUdc ndng Un, hat chap nhUngkho khan chung ve kinh te thegidi trong nam 2019. Thdnh qua ndy Id cgng hddng tich cUc sU kip thdi va hieu qua trong chi dqo, dieu hdnh cua Chinh phu, Thu tUdng Chinh phu vdi sU nd Idc cua cdc cap, cdc ngdnh, cdc dia phUdng vd cdng dong doanh nghiep cd niidc trong thUc hiin ke hoqch phdt trien kinh te - xd hoi. </i>

<i>TH khoa: Diem nhan kinh te, trien vong. </i>

Economic highlights in 2019 and outlook for 2020

2019 is the second consecutive year that the whole country achieved all 12 major plan targets, of which 5 exceeded the plan, with an estimated annual GDP grovrth of 6.8-6.9%. Vietnam is one of the countries with the highest GDP growth rate in 2019, leading the region and the world, considered a country with a stable economy and fast growth, its strength is constantly being consolidated; its international prestige ij. raised, despite the general difficulties in the world economy in 2019. This achievement is a positive resonance of the timely and effective direction and administration of the Central Government and Prime Minister, with the efforts of all levels, sectors, localities and business community throughout the country in implementing the socio-economic development plan.

Keywords: Economic highlight, outlook. Nhiing diem nhan kinh te Viet Nam nam 2019 Moi trUdng kinh doanh tiep tuc dUctc cai thi^n, Vi?t Nam dUi?c xtfp thii 8 trong s6 cac n^n kinh te tot nhat thef gidi de diu tU nam 2019, tang 15 b^c so vdi nam 2018; nang lv(c canh tranh cua

<i>Vi^t Nam d\i<yc Dien d ^ Kjnh tf ThS gicrt xep thijf </i>

67/141 quoc gia, vimg lanh thfi, tang 10 b^c so vdi

<i>nam 2018. Chi s6 n4ng l^c c ^ tranh nganh du </i>

Ijch cung tang 2 b$c so v6i nam trUdc. Chi so doi mdi sang t^o toan cau (Gil) cua Vi?t Nam tang 3 b^c, x^p thii 42/129 qu6c g^. vung lanh th6; diJng thii nhit trong nhom 26 quoc gia thu nh^p trung binh thip va thii 3 traog ASEAN. Chi s6 x^p h ^ g v^ an t o ^ thdng tin OUM^ cua Vi^t Nam tang 50

<i>b$c x ^ thil 50/175 qufic pz. vung lanh th6. Theo </i>

Bao cao M6i triidng kinh doanh toan cau - Doing business 2020 (DB 2020) vira dii^c Ngan hang The gidi cdng b6, chi so npp thue (Paying Taxes, vdi cdc ti^u chi nhii: s6 gid nop thue; so Ian nop thue trong nam; tong mdc thu^ suat tren l^i nhuan; chi so sau ke khai (hoin thue gia tri gia tang, thanh/ Idem tra thue thu nh|p doanh nghiep) da tang 22

<i>bac. dila Viet Nam tii vi tri thii 131 lln xep thii 109 </i>

trong tong so 190 quoc gia diidc danh gia. Nhd ket qud nay. nganh thue da vUdt chi tieu Chinh phu d^ ra t ^ Nghj quyet so 02/NQ-CP v^ tiep tyc thUc hi^n nhiing nhiem vy, gidi phap chu yeu cii thi?n moi tnidng kinh doanh, nang cao nang liJc c^nh

<i>tranh qu6c gia nam 2019 vk dinh hifdng dSn nim </i>

2021. Theo dd, myc tieu chi s6 ngp thue nam 2019

<i><small>*Ph6 Ban Tuyjn tnnyitm Sjtkt^. Boo Nfain ddn </small></i>

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30-40 bac.

Theo Bao cao Moi trildng kinh doanh 2020 cua Ngan hang The gidi, phan Idn cac chi so nay deu

<i>CO s\i cai thien so vdi nam trUdc do va diloc ghi </i>

nhan nhd nhCtng no liJc cua Viet Nam. Cu the, thdi gian nop thue giam 114 gid (til 498 xuong 384 gid); trong do, 94 gid giam la do cai each, don gian hoa tai cac thu tuc ve khai thue gia tri gia tang va 20 gid giam la do nhflng cai each, dcfn gian hoa cac thii tuc ve ndp va quyet toan thue thu nhap doanh nghiep. So Ian nop thue giam til 10 Ian nam 2019 xuong con 6 Ian nam 2020. Tong mile thue suat (ty le tong thue va dong gdp) giam 0,2%, tif mdc 37,8% nam 2019 xuong con 37,6% nam 2020. Tlidi gian doanh nghiep Viet Nam chuan bi nop thue gia tri gia tang, bao gdm lap bang ke hoa dan hang hoa, dich vu mua vao, ban ra theo Td khai thue gia tri gia tang da giam khoang 90 gid {til 212 con 122 gid). Thdi

<i>gian ke khai thue thu nhap doanh nghiep giam tii 5 </i>

Ian xuong 1 Ian...

So Iddng doanh nghiep thanh lap mdi va quay

<i>lai hoat dong tiep tuc diidc cii thien. Day la 2 chi </i>

so do liidng sdc khde mdi triidng kinh doanh va tao dong Idc tang trddng chinh den nen kinh te

khoang 134 nghin doanh nghiep thanh lap mdi va hang chuc nghin doanh nghiep hoat dong trd lai. 9 thang dau nam cd gan 102,3 nghin doanh nghiep dang ky thanh lap mdi, tang 34% ve so von dang ky va tang 26,6% ve von dang ky binh quan mot doanh nghiep thanh lap mdi, dat 12,6 ty dong, mdc cao nhat trong nhflng nam trd lai day. Dieu nay cung cho thay "sdc khde" tot hdn cua cac doanh nghiep mdi gia nhap thi trddng. Dong thdi, ca nddc con cd 27,6 nghin doanh nghiep quay trd lai hoat dong, tang 20,5% so vdi ciing ky nam trUdc. Den nay cd gan 24 nghin hop tac xa kieu mdi vdi da so hoat dong hieu qua.

Sd lac quan kinh doanh va tich cUc dau tu dddc khang dinh, vdi ket qua 81,7% doanh nghiep nganh cdng nghiep che bien, che tao ddOc Tong cue Thong ke khao sat khSng dinh kinh doanh cua minh trong quy III/2019 la on dinh va tich cdc, tot ban quy 11/2019; 87,9% cho r^ng dU kien quy lV/2019 xu hUdng se tot len hoac on dinh so vdi quy 111/2019. Von dau td nddc ngoai dddc tiep tuc cai thien vdi quy md von FDI thdc hien ifdc dat 14,2 ty USD, tang 7,3%; tong gia tri gdp tang 82,3% so vdi ciing ky nam 2018 va cao nhat tit trddc den nay.

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phat trien, vdi tong von dau td phat trien toan xa hpi ca nam udc khoang 33,8% GDP; ty trong dau td cua khu vdc ngoai nha nddc tang len 45,3%; dau td td nhan vdi nhieu du an Idn duoc trien khai manh me, theo dung dinh hddng tang cudng thu hiit cac ngudn lUc xa hpi. Nang suat lao dong tang 5,9%; dong gdp cua nang suat cac nhan td tong hop dat 42,7%. Md hinh tang trddng chuyen dich tich cdc, giam dan phu thupc vao khai khoang va tang tin dyng. Dong gdp cua khoa hoc, cdng nghe va doi mdi sang t^o ngay cang tang. Khoa hoc cdng nghe ddoc ling dung rong rai trong nhieu linh vdc; he sinh thai khdi nghiep doi mdi sang tao quoc gia phat tri^n manh. Nhilu thanh tUu ddOc dng dung nhanh chdng va rong rai, trong do cd nhi3ng linh vdc tiem c|n va d^t trinh do khu vdc, quoc te. He thong bao ho, thUc thi quyen sd hflu tri tue tiep tyc duoc hoan thien. Cac quy phat trien khoa hoc cdng nghe phat huy hieu qua; cd hdn 3.000 doanh nghiep khdi nghiep va mot so quy dau td mao hi^m.

Nhieu dia phdcfng no lUc phan dau vUdn len, thu hut manh cdc ngudn Idc, dat toe dp tang trddng cao, ddng gdp quan trong cho ket qua chung cua cd nUdc.

Thi trddng tai chinh va nen tdng kinh te vi md dupe duy tri 6n dinh, vdng chac trong dieu ki?n thi trUdng tai chinh, tien te quoc te bien dong manh. Chi so gia tieu dung (CPI) dddi 3%, thap hon muc tieu d^ ra. Thi trUdng tai chinh, tien te va ty gia dUdc dieu hanh chu ddng, linh hoat va duy tri on djnh phu hop; dd trd ngoai h6i dat khoang 73 ty USD. He so tin nhiem quoc gia ddpc nang hang

<i>tii BB- len BB vdi trien vong "tich cdc". Nam 2019 </i>

tong thu ngan sach nha nUdc vdot 3,3% dd toan va la nam thii hai lien tiep thu ngan sach trung Udng vUpt du toan. Cdc chi tieu tdng thu, huy dong vao ngan sdch, thu npl dia... dat muc tieu ke hoach 5 nam. Boi chi dUOc klem sodt ca sd tuyet doi vd tUdng doi, vdi mdc boi chi nam 2019 ngan sach nhd nddc khoang 3,4% GDP va nam 2020 ddc 3,44% GDP, vUOt muc tieu dUdi 3,5% GDR Ty trong chi dau tU phat trien tang, dat 26,6%. Nhd kiem sodt tot, nd cdng da giam mpt nifa so vdi giai

nghia (nam 2019, nd cong giam con 56,1% GDP so vdi mdc 64,6% GDP nam 2016).

Nam nay la nam thd tU lien tiep Viet Nam xuat sieu vdi Udc tinh ca nam 2019 xuat sieu tren 9 ty USD. Trong boi canh thdOng mai toan cau suy giam, xuat khau van tang khoang 7,9%; xuat khau cua khu vUc kinh te trong nUdc tang manh. Cdng tac quan ly thi trddng dupc tang cddng, vdi viec xd ly nghiem nhieu vu vi^c budn lau, gian Ian thdPng mai.

Nen kinh te tiep tuc cO cau lai nen dung hUdng va thue chat hdn. Cdc nganh, linh vUe chu yeu van phat trien on dinh, tich cUc trong boi canh khd khan. Sdn xudt cdng nghiep tang manh; trong dd cdng nghiep che bien, ch^ tao tiep tuc gid vai trd dong Idc tang trddng kinh te. Bao dam an ninh nang lupng; phat trien manh cdc dd an nang Idpng tai tao. Khu vdc ndng nghiep phat trien on dmh; xay dUng va dua vao hoat dong nhieu nha may che bien Idn; xuat khau ndng. lam, thiiy san dat tren 41 ty USD. Xay dUng ndng thon mdi dat ket qud vUpt bac, den cuoi nam 2019 ddc cd khoang 53 - 54% sd xa va 110 huyen dat chuSn, hoan thanh trddc thdi han gan 2 nam. Khu vUc dich vu duy tri da tang khd cao; tong mdc bdn le hang hoa va doanh thu dich vu tieu diing tang khoang 11,5 - 12%; thddng mai dien td tang manh. Khdch quoc te ddc ca nam dat 18 trieu Iddt, tang 16,1%. Cd cau lai cdc to ehdc tin dung gdn vdi xd ly nd xau dat ket qua tich cdc; ty le no xau npi bang con 1,91%; bao dam an toan he thong. Thdc hien nhieu gidi phdp nang cao hieu qua hoat dong cua doanh nghiep nha nddc; tap trung xd ly cdc dU dn, doanh nghiep thua 16, that thodt Idn, trong do cd dU dn bUdc dau cd lai va mot sd du dn tdng bUde khac phue khd khan, vdn hdnh trd lai.

Chat lUdng ngudn nhan lUc tiep tuc dUdc cdi thien ciing vdi sU phdt trien ket cau ha tang, do thi va thue day lien ket vung. Xep hang dai hoc tang 12 bac, td hang 80 len 68. Quy md nguon nhan lye Udc dat 55,8 trieu lao dpng; ty 1? lao dpng qua dao tao ca nam khoang 61 - 62%, trong dd ty le lao dpng cd bdng cap, chdng chi dat 24%; tao them 1,62 trieu

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He thong do thi phat trien nhanh, ty le do thi hoa Udc dat 39,2%.

Cdc linh vdc van hoa, xa hoi dddc chu trong, CO ban gan ket hai hoa vdi phat trien kmh te, chat lUpng cuoc song eua nhan dan tiep tuc dddc cai thien rd ret.

Chat Idpng dich vu y te tiep tuc dddc nang len, dat 8,6 bac sy, 27,5 giddng benh tren 1 van dan va ty le tham gia bao hiem y te dat 89,3%, vddt mue tieu de ra. Lam tot cong tac y te du phdng; chu trong ve sinh an toan thdc pham.

T^ le hd ngheo theo chuan da chieu giam 1 -1,5% (con khoang 3,73 - 4,23%); trong do cae huyen ngheo giam tren 4%. Thanh tieh giam ngheo cua Viet Nam tiep tuc la mot diem sang, dddc cong dong quoc te danh gia cao. Dae biet, theo Bao cao Chi so doi ngheo toan cau (GHI) 2019 cua Co quan vien trd Concern Worldwide td Allen va to chdc Welt Hunger Hilfe cua Ddc, Viet Nam ddng thd 62, tang 2 bac so vdi vi tri thd 64 tren tdng sd 119 nen kinh te trong bang xep hang toan cau. Vdi vi tri nam nay, Viet Nam tot hon mot so nddc lang gieng Dong Nam A nhu Myanmar, Indonesia, Philippines, Campuchia va Lao. (Diem GHI dUpc

dddng, gay so vdi ehieu cao, thap cdi d tre em va tre em td vong).

Ke hoach phat trien kinh te - xa hoi Viet Nam giai doan 2016 - 2020 da di dUpe gan het chang dddng, du eon khd khan nhung kinh te Viet Nam da dat dUdc nhieu ket qua an tddng: Tang trUdng GDP phuc hoi rd net sau giai doan 2011 - 2015, duy tri dddc toe do cao, dae biet la trong cac nam 2017 -2019 (vdi tdc dp tangGDP dat 6,81 nam 2017; 7,08% nam 2018 va dd kien khodng 7,1% nam 2019). Tinh chung giai doan 2016 - 2020, tang trddng GDP dd kien khoang 6,84%/nam (dat myc tieu 6,5 - 7% cua Ke hoach 2016 - 2020 da de ra). Ddng gdp cua khu vdc cdng nghiep xay ddng vao tang trUdng kinh te giai doan 2016 - 2020 da tang len hdn 44% (so vdi mdc tuong dng 39,9% giai doan 2011 - 2015). Trong do, nganh eong nghiep che bien, che tao mac du CO dau hieu tang trddng cham lai do sdc cau ben ngoai giam sut, nhdng van cd mdc tang kha, trung binh 12,8%/nam trong giai doan 2016-2019, ddng gdp 32% vao tang trUdng GDP toan nen kinh te. Nang suat lao ddng giai doan nay tang trung binh 5,8%/nam (so vdi mdc tang tUOng dng 4,3%/nam cua giai doan 2011 - 2015).

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2020

Nam 2020, Viet Nam cd nhieu thuan Idi va ca nhflng thach thdc khdng nho.

<i>Ve thuan loi, Viet Nam tiep tuc c6 sdc hut </i>

dau td manh d khu vdc do hien ddng d vi tri thd 8 (tang 15 bac, td vi tri 23 nam 2018) trong bang xep hang cac nen kinh te tot nhat the gidi de dau tu nam 2019 theo bao cao cua U.S. News & World Report. Dong thdi, Viet Nam dang c6 nhdng tien bo ve chi tieu lam phat, tham hyt ngan sach, du trd ngoai hdi va gia tang tdng cau npi dia cua nen kinh te gan 100 trieu dan. He so tin nhiem quoc gia cua Viet Nam dUpc nang td Bl (tich cUc) len Ba3 (on dinh). Cach mang Cdng nghiep 4.0 Ian rong va sd "gdp mat" cua cdc Hi^p dinh thddng mai td do nhu Hi^p dinh Doi tac Toan dien va Tien bo xuyen Thai Binh Dddng (CPTPP) va Hiep dinh ThdOng mai Td do Viet Nam - Lien minh chau Au (EVFTA) dddc ky vong se mang lai nhi^u cd hdi phat trien cho nen kinh te Vi6t Nam thong qua viec md rong xuat khau, dau tU va dng dyng khoa hoc cong nghe, giup cdi thi^n chuoi cung dng cua Viet Nam. Ben canh dd, cac FTA nay tac dpng tich cue tdi lao dpng, trong do nhiing ngdnh tham dung lao dpng nhd det may, da giay... dU bao se ddpc hddng Idi nhieu nhat.

Ngoai ra, tac dpng td CPTPP va EVFTA con cd the den td viec tao sdc ep cai thien the che va mdi trddng kinh doanh, td do, ky vpng tao ra tac dong tich cdc trong trung va dai han. Rieng EVFTA vd CPTPP CO the giup GDP Viet Nam tang them Ian lUpt 4,3% va 1,3% vao nam 2030. Kim ngach xuat khau eua Viet Nam sang EU den nam 2030 du kien se tang them 44,4%; xuat khau sang cac nUdc CPTPP den nam 2035 tang 14,3%. Giai doan 2020-2030, thong qua cdc hiep dinh thUdng mai

<i>RCEP, CPTPP vd EVFTA, Viet Nam c6 them ca </i>

hoi da dang hda quan he hdp tac, bo sung dong Idc tang trddng va gidm phu thupe qua nhieu vao cac nen kinh te Idn. Co hdi se nam d nhflng ngdnh cd Ipi thesosdnh truyeti th6ng(nhUdet may, dagiay, do go, di?n td, ndng san va thuy sdn); linh vUc phyc vy tieu dung (phan phoi ban le, du lich, giai tri, glao

gid tri (dich vy h6 trd, logistics, cdng nghiep h6 trd). Tiem nang cung nam d nhflng linh vUc mdi ndi (kinh te xanh, kinh te sdng tao, kinh te so, phat trien do thi thong minh). Linh vUc ket eau ha tang va bat ddng san (nha d, van phdng, bat dpng sdn du lich, ban le, logistics, khu cdng nghiep)... cung cd

<i>nhieu cd hpi cho gidi dau tU trong vd ngoai nUde </i>

khai pha.

Ve thdch thdc. Id mot nen kinh te cd do md cao, Viet Nam se chiu anh hUdng trUc tiep td xu the tang trUdng cham lai cua nen kinh te the gidi vd nhieu nddc Idn ndi long ti^n t^ trong thap nien tdi, gan vdi'chien tranh thddng mai My - Trung, mau thuan dia chinh tri, chinh sach tien te khd dy doan cua cac nUde, nd cdng cac nUde tang cao... Dong thdi, tiep tuc chiu tac dpng cua cac xu the da cUe dia chinh tri, xu the gia hda cua dan sd, cdch mang cong nghe 4.0, xu the hinh thanh cdc mega-FTA vd gia tang tinh ket noi khu vUc, xu the dich chuyen dfl lieu xuyen bien gidi, tdc ddng cua bien doi khi hau, sU ndi len cua Chau A vdi 2 quoc gia Trung Quoc, An Dp trong khi ddng USD se giam dan sdc manh vdn cd.

Ngoai ra, trong phdt trien kinh te, Viet Nam da, dang vd se con tiep tuc doi dien vdi nhieu ap Idc ve chu nghIa tU ban than hflu; kiem sodt ddc quyen kinh te (nhd nUdc va td nhan); bao ve quyen loi ngUdi lao dpng; tang cddng bdo ve mdi trUdng va an sinh xa hdi; tinh trang chuyen gid, ne va tron thue; san xuat hang gia, nhdi, kem chat lupng; tpi pham budn lau ndp bdng cdng ty trong eho vay nang lai vd budn ma tuy, ddng vat quy hiem...

Dong thdi, viec tang trddng van chu y^u phy thudc vao von (ty le von dau tU/GDP van d mdc cao, trung binh 33,5%), ddng gdp cua nhan td von trong tang trddng van chiem ty le Idn (tren 55%).

<i>Ben canh dd, ca cau kinh te cd sU chuyen dich qud </i>

nhanh sang khu vyc dich vu, trong khi nen tdng cdng nghiep con yeu. Cac nganh dich vy cd gid tri

<i>gia tang cao ddng gdp cdn thap, chi phi dich \-u </i>

logistic cdn cao. Ddc biet. xuat khau van phy thudc vao nhdm hang do doanh nghiep FDI dan ddt. Kim ngach xuat khau tang, nhUng ham lUdng npi dia <small>I9| NGHlf \ t'Lli KHOA HOC K l ^ T O A N </small>

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nghiep trong nddc dac biet la doanh nghiep nhd va vda chUa tham gia nhieu vao chuoi gia tri toan cau. Nang Idc doi mdi sang tao chda dddc cai thien nhieu va van la diem nghen trong phat trien kinh te cua Viet Nam khi each mang cong nghiep 4.0 dang dien ra manh me tren the gidi...

Theo tinh toan cua Bo Tai chinh, nd cong nam 2020 khoang 54,3% GDP, thap hdn nhieu mdc 63,7% GDP each do 4 nam. Du vay, dieu hanh ngan sdch cdn tiep tuc gap kho khan, khi ty le huy dpng thue, phi giam dan va ehila dat muc tieu 21% GDP giai doan 2019-2020. Nguyen nhan la ngudn ddng gdp td dau thd, xuat nhap khau giam nhanh trong vai nam qua, td mde 7,3% GDP nam 2015, xuong 4,5% nam 2016, dd kien con 4,2% 2019 va gidm tdc ve 3,6% nam 2020. Thu td mot so linh vdc tang trddng cao trUde day deu giam, trong do thu td Nha may Loc hda dau Dung Quat giam tdi 19%, cdn thu td nganh than chi 8,2%... Mat khac, thu npi dia mot so thanh pho Idn cd dieu tiet ve ngan sach trung dong deu giam, nhd Ha Ndi nam 2020 giam gan 10% so vdi 2017; Thanh pho Ho Chi Minh giam hdn 3%, Binh Dddng gan 8%...

bao kinh te - xa hoi quoc gia, Bp Ke hoach va Dau tu, tang trUdng kmh te giai doan 2021-2025 cd the dien ra vdi 2 kich ban:

Kich ban 1, toe dp tang trddng GDP Viet Nam se dat khoang 7%/nam, kinh te vT mo cd ban on dinh, lam phat d mdc 3,5-4,5%/nam. Nang suat lao dong dddc cai thien hdn vdi toe do tang trddng khoang 6,3%/nam. Vdi ket qua nay, den nam 2025, GDP binh quan dau ngUdi cua Viet Nam dat khoang 4.688 USD, dda Viet Nam gia nhap nhdm nddc cd thu nhap trung binh cao.

Kich ban 2, neu Viet Nam cd the tan dung dUde cong nghe trong Cach manh cdng nghiep 4.0 va thu hut dau td cd sd cai thien ehat Iddng, phat trien tot nen tang kinh te hien tai thi ky vong GDP tang trddng cd the len tdi 7,5%/nam.

Cac to chdc va chuyen gia quoc te thi than trong hdn khi dd bao toe do tang trddng GDP cua Viet Nam nam 2020 se thap hdn so vdi nam 2019, tddng dng 6,5% (theo WB) hoac 6,7% (theo ADB).

Theo Chuyen gia Kinh te trUdng ve cac thi trddng ASEAN cua HSBC, Viet Nam se cd tdc dp tang trddng GDP 6,5% vao nam 2020 sau khi dat <small>NGHlfiN Ctru KHOA HpC KIEM T O A N J SO 146 - ihing 12/20i9| I </small>

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Viet Nam con dang doi mat vdi 4 thach thdc ve cai thien co cau xudt - nhap khau, giam nhap khSu qua nhieu td thi trddng Trung Quoc; kiem sodt lam phdt, vdi mdc dd bao CPI Ian lUdt d mdc 2,7% va 3% trong nam 2019 va 2020; kiem sodt nhflng rui ro tai chinh, nhat la nd tieu dung tang nhanh vd thue day dich chuyen ddng vdn vay chay td bat dpng sdn sang nhdng nganh cdng nghiep, trong khi kiem sodt tang trUdng tin dung. Ti le np eong d mdc 61,3% GDP trong nam 2019 vd 2020. Cdn can thanh toan dddng eho phep Ngan hang Nha nddc gia tang dU trd ngoEii hdi, nhd do ti gia se gid on dinh trong nam 2020.

Theo ong Eric Sidgwiek, Giam doc Quoc gia cua ADB, 5 linh vUe Viet Nam can tap trung trong chu ky phdt trien kinh te mdi la: Cai thien ed sd ha tang quoc gia, khong chi ve mat sd Iddng nhflng cdng trinh ma cdn trong ca nhdng yeu to "mem" hdn nhd cac dich vu hau can va tinh hieu qua cua nhflng dich vu dd; Phat trien ngudn Idc con ngUdi, tang cddng giao dye thUc chat td cac cap dp de dao tao ky nang ma cdc thi trUdng yeu edu, trong dd ddc biet Id ley nang v^' sd dung eong nghe; Tao them nguon lye tang trddng cho khu vUc tU nhdn, dae biet la khoi doanh nghiep trong nddc; Nang cao nang Idc va hieu qua qudn ly nhd nUde va the che; T^o ra cac dpng lUc tang trUdng kinh te ed kha nang khdng chiu vdi tinh trang bien doi khi hau dang dien bien ngay mot nghiem trpng. Ddc biet, he thong ngan hang cua Viet Nam can phai dat chuan quoc te cua Hiep Ude Basel II vao dau nam tdi, bdi day la chuan mdc quoc te ve quan tri rui ro ma he thong cac ngan hdng thUdng mai Viet Nam dang hudng den tdng bUdc dp dyng, nham tang cddng nang lUc quan tri rui ro va nang cao hieu qua hoat dong. Hien nay, mdi chi cd khoang 1/3 so ngan hang cua Viet Nam dap dng dupe cae tieu chud'n cua Hiep Udc Basel 11 va mot so trong dd cdn gap vUdng mdc ve van de von sd hdu nddc ngoai hay thanh khoan.

Vi?t Nam can nhan thdc va quan tam den thye hien quy tac xuat xd hang hda, tranh de dat nddc rdi vdo trddng hdp bi danh gid Id dang Ipi dung

tranh khong cong bdng. Nhflng sdn pham cd gid trj

<i>gia tdng san xuat t^i Viet Nam phdi dddc gdn mdc </i>

ro rang d^ de phdng trUdng hdp tdi xuat bat hdp phdp. Cac cupc thanh kiem tra tai cdc cang hdng hda xuat - nhap khau, sd phoi hdp gifla cdc bp, ban, nganh cung Id rat can thiet de dam bao rang se khdng CO hang hda cua mpt nUdc thd ba ndo dddc "doi lot" mot cdch trai phep va rdi khdi Viet Nam.

Ngoai ra, cac chinh sdch ti^n te cua Ngdn hdng nhd nUdc Viet Nam hien mdi tap trung chu yeu vao viec kiem sodt dinh lUdng, nhd dat ra cac myc tieu tin dyng ve tong the cua nen kinh te hoac cua tdng ngan hang. Day Id cdng cy trde tiep tac dpng den nen kinh te. Thdi gian tdi, Viet Nam can day manh viec ap dung nhflng cdng cy gidn tiep hdn

<i>thong qua ca che gia ca thi trddng va cac chinh </i>

sach lai suat ve tong the, lai suat cua tdng ngan hang va lien ngan hang doi vdi hoat dpng kinh te, de tao dieu kien cho cd che gid cd thi trUdng boat ddng hieu qua.

Ddng vdn ngoai dddc dd bdo se tiep tuc tang nhd sd on dinh chinh tri - xd hoi vd kinh te vi md, Idi the gia nhan cong re. Dong thdi, sy cang thing

<i>thUdng mai My - Trung, cung ca hpi td nhflng FTA </i>

ma \'iet Nam da va se ky ket nhd CPTPP, EVFTA... khien Viet Nam dddc xem la mot dich den cua cdc nha dau tU nude ngoai.

Cd cau kinh te se cd sU chuyen dich sau sac hon theo hddng phat trien cdng nghiep phy trd vd tham gia chuoi cung dng quoc te, trUde het vdi cdc nddc thdnh vien tham gia FTA vdi Viet Nam. Cac nganh du lich, ndng nghiep, thuy, hai san se tiep tuc tang trddng thuan Idi.

Cac nhom hang chu Idc xuat khau cua Viet Nam se da dang hdn, nhdm nganh det may, giay dep va gao cd khd nang canh tranh nhd gidm hang rao thue quan va mua dUpe nguyen lieu gia re, giup giam chi phi san xuat. Cdc doanh nghiep cung ed

<i>them ca hpi tham gia dau thau mua sam eong. </i>

Qua trinh tai co cau cac doanh nghiep nha nUdc va cdc ngan hdng thddng mai se day manh hon. Cdc boat dpng M&A cung ddpc thue day ca be rpng \a

<small>2 | S c , • lh,iiij; 12/20191 N G H I C N f U KHOA HOC KltM T O A N </small>

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va kinh doanh hang tieu dung; ngan hang va ca det may, che tao cd khi...

Khu vUc CO von dau tU nddc ngoai tiep tuc ddng vai tro la dong Idc quan trong cua tang trudng kinh t^, nhat la xuat khau.

Thi trddng cac hang tieu dung se cd cai thien vdi cd cau hang hda phong phu hdn, gia re hdn va chdt IdOng tdng bddc ddoc cai thien. Hang cdng ngh? thong tin tiep tuc da dang hda va giam gia nhanh do canh tranh vd sU phat trien khoa hoc cdng nghe.

Thi trddng xuat khau lao ddng se tiep tue tang manh vd la mot trong tam cai thien viec lam va an sinh xa hoi cho cac vung, doi tUdng lien quan.

Thi trUdng bat dong sdn se hinh thanh mot chu ky dau td mdi, vdi nhflng dieu chinh sau ve dinh hudng, quy md, toe dp, can bang va hieu qua hdn, vdi tieu diem nong vdn Id phan khuc nha d xa hpi va cdc can ho chung cU, mat bang kinh doanh gia hop ly, 6 vi tri thuan Idi, du co sd ha tang va dich vu xa hpi. ddpc tieu thu theo phUdng thdc eho thue, "thue-mua" va "mua-cho thue" va dddc quan ly bdi cdc cong ty uy thdc, khai thdc chuyen nghiep cd trach nhiem cao.

dong san nghi dddng - du lich nam 2020 se tram lang va tao dp lUc tang np xau ngan hang.

Thi trddng chdng khoan nam 2020 khdng nhieu dd dia de tang diem, sau khi mdc vdn hda tren thi trUdng da dat 76,4% GDP vao cuoi nam 2018 (ve dich trUdc ban 2 nam so vdi muc tieu ban dau Udc chiem 70% GDP vao nam 2020) va cuoi quy III/2019, vdn hda thi trddng eho rieng nhdm CO phieu niem yet da dat khoang 195 ti USD, chiem hdn 80% GDP. Dpng lUe chu yeu va ky vpng von hda thi trddng ehdng khodn Viet Nam cd the dat moc 100% GDP nam 2020 la nd Idc day manh co phan hda, thodi von d khdi doanh nghiep nhd nUde va phat hanh co phieu Ian dau ra cdng chung cua cdc doanh nghiep tU nhan Idn (dd kien cac doanh nghiep Idn Mobifone, VNPT, Agribank, VICEM... se IPO va niem y£t tren sdn chdng khoan vdi gia tri len tdi 8 ti USD). Ngoai ra, nha dau tU cung ky vpng thi trddng chdng khodn Viet Nam se ddpc MSCl nang hang, td thi trUdng can bien len thi trUdng mdi noi. Khi do, cdc quy

<i>ETF se dk dang tham gia vao thi trddng chdng </i>

khodn Viet Nam. Theo dU doan cua VDSC, cac ETF dda tren cdc chi so mdi nhd VN Diamond, VNFln Select va VNFin Lead hfla hen se thu hut

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hdu doi vdi nha dau td nddc ngoai van la yeu to trd ngai cho viec nang hang. Ngoai ra, thi trddng chdng khoan nam 2020 cd the doi dien vdi nhflng rui ro td xu hddng tang nhe lai suat trung va dai han; dong thdi, trien vpng chung con phu thupc vao ket qua tri^n khai Luat Chdng khoan sda doi; trong dd cd viec ndi room, bd sung eong cu chdng khodn phdi sinh, tang cddng minh bach, tang cung cho thi trddng trai phieu, dac biet Id kha ndng chuyin doi tien te...

Nam 2020, tdi eau true ngan hang se cd bddc ti^n tieh cdc (np xau toan nganh den thdng 8.2019 d dddi 2%, tinh ca tai VAMC la dddi 5%), nhieu ngan hang bUde vdo chuyen doi so. Tuy nhien, dong von cho doanh nghiep dang bi slet lai td phia cac td chdc tin dyng do thdch thdc dat ra trong quan tri theo yeu cau Basel II d nhieu ngan hang va xd ly mot so ngan hang yeu kem vdi nd xau nhdm 4-5 cdn cao.

Bdi canh dd tao dp Idc buoc mot so doanh nghiep Viet tim Idem nguon huy dong vdn khde qua phat hanh trai phieu doanh nghiep, ke cd phat hdnh trai phieu quoc te (theo Asia Bond Monitor, thi trddng trdi phieu doanh nghiep bang VND eua Viet Nam da dat 4,3 ti USD vao nam 2018, tang trUdng kep 66%/nam, giai doan 2014-2018. Trong dd, 30 doanh nghiep nhd Vingroup, Masan, ACB, CII, BIDV. VPBank. Teehcombank, REE, PAN... da ehi^m 85% gid tri trai phieu doanh nghiep dang Idu hanh. De phat hanh trai phieu quoc te, cae doanh nghiep phai dddc xep hang tin dung, hieu biet phdp ly vd trinh tU thu tyc de chuan hi ho sd, dpi phe duyet thu tuc, to chdc quang bd, xue tien dau tU, cdng b6, dUng sd, dinh ra thi trddng thd cap. Trong do, quang ba marketing rat quan trong.

Ve trung va dai han, Viet Nam can nhieu hon cac dpt phd thye chat ve nang cao nang lye ndi tai cua nen kinh t^, doi mdi md hinh tang trddng, gia tdng cdc dpng lUc tang trddng mdi. day nhanh qud trinh cdi cdch the che vd cai thien mdi trUdng; phat trien cua khu vyc td nhan; phdt trien khoa hoc cong nghe, doi mdi sdng tao. nang eao nang suat lao ddng; chu trong phdt trien cong nghiep che bien

CO hoi tfl hpi nhap quoc te vd xu hddng Cdch mang eong nghiep 4.0...

Chuyen doi so, kinh te so, xa hoi sd la chu de trong tam, muc tieu Uu tien va ddng Idc phdt trien manh me hang dau eua Viet Nam trong nhieu thap ky tdi. Theo bdo cdo "Nen kinh t^ so Ddng Nam A 2019" (e-Conomy Southeast Asia 2019) do Google. Temasek va Bain cdng bd ngay 3/10/2019 tai Thanh pho Ho Chi Minh, nen kinh te so Viet Nam nam 2019 tri gia 12 ti USD (ddng gdp 5% GDP quoc gia trong nam 2019), cao gap 4 Ian so vdi gia tri cua nam 2015 va dy dodn cham moc 43 ti USD vdo nam 2025, vdi cdc linh vUc: Thddng mai dien td, du lich trdc tuyen, truyen thdng trdc tuyen vd goi xe cdng nghe. NIn kinh te so Viet Nam, cimg Indonesia, dang dan dau ve toe dp tang trUdng trong khu vdc Ddng Nam A, vdi trung binh 38%/ nam so vdi 33% eua ea khu vUc tinh td nam 2015. Tong gia tri giao dich tren thi trddng thddng mai dien td Viet Nam Udc dat 5 ti USD trong nam 2019, eao gap 12,5 Ian mde 0,4 ti USD cua nam 2015 va se tang tdi 23 ti USD vao nam 2025. vdi tdc do tang trUdng xap xi 49%. Ben canh dd, cdc nganh dich vu du lich trUc tuyen, truyen thdng trUe tuyen va gpi xe true tuyen cung cd sd vUdn len manh me, ddng gop vao sU phat trien eua nen kinh te so Viet Nam. O Viet Nam, cac cdng ty hang dau nen kinh t^ sd dang di theo hudng ngUOc lai: Mang den that nhieu dich vy tren cimg mot dng dung, du van ed dich vu kinh doanh cot loi de gifl chan ngUdi dung. Ben canh do. mot so doanh nghiep cung Ida chon hinh thdc eong sinh, bat tay hdp tac de md rong kho san pham dich vu.

Nam 2020. cd nhieu ky vpng mdi vao dpng lUc tang trudng kinh te tieh cdc hdn cho nen kinh te cd tfl viec thdng qua cdc hiep dinh thUong mai tU do Viet Nam-EU va hiep dinh bdo ho dau tU (EVIPA); tfl \'iec EU rdt the vang ngdnh thu sdn Viet Nam vd td viec Viet Nam tiep tyc ky tham gja 2/8 cdng Udc cdn lai cua To chdc lao ddng quoc te.

Xuat khau dich vu (trddc het trong cdc dich vy Chinh phu, djch vu du lich, tai chinh, van tai vd kinh doanh doanh cdng nghe cao khde. nhu dich

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van, bdo hiem va huu tri, dich vy sd hflu tri tue...) phai ddpc col Id myc tieu vd dong Idc mdi cua nam 2020, dac biet trong bdi canh thUc thi cdc FTA the he mdi, nhu CPTPP va ca EVFTA. Dieu do khdng chi giup can bang can can thanh todn thdOng mai hang hda - dich vy chung, ma cdn trdc tiep gop phan phat trien sdn xuat cong, ndng nghiep, cdi thien co cau kinh t^ va khai pha cac thi trUdng tiem nang tri gid hang tram ty USD trong va ngoai nddc; giup ngddi dan bdt tdm ly sinh ngoai, cai thien chdt Idpng s6ng, cai thien viec lam, thu nhap, tao sdc hut vdn dau td va du khdch nddc ngoai tim den Viet Nam kham pha, trai nghiem va gdi gam niem tin.

Trong bdi canh the gidi tiep tuc cd nhieu khd khan va bat trac khd Iddng, de bao dam thanh cdng, theo chi dao cua Chinh phu, cac cap, cae nganh can nghiem tuc thdc hien 11 nhiem vu, giai phdp trpng tam ma Quoc hdi de ra cho nam 2020, vdi myc tieu tong quat la tap trung on dinh kinh te vi mo; kiem sodt lam phat; nang cao nang suat, chat Iddng, hieu qua, tinh tU chu va sdc canh tranh cua nen kinh te. Hoan thien the che, khdi thdng nguon lUe; tao moi trddng dau td, kinh doanh binh dang, thdng thoang, thuan Ipi. Day manh cd cau lai nen kinh te gan vdi doi mdi md hinh tang trddng; day nhanh tien dp thdc hien cae dd an quan trpng quoc gia, cdng trinh trpng diem; phat huy vai trd cua cac

dao tao, boi dUdng nguon nhan lUc chat Iddng cao gan vdi phat trien khoa hoe, cdng nghe va doi mdi sdng tao; phdt trien kmh te ben vflng gan vdi phat trien van hda, xa hoi. bao ve mdi trddng va cung CO quoc phdng. an nmh, nang cao chat Idong ddi song vat chat, tmh than eua nhan dan. Tang cddng quan ly dat dai, tai nguyen, bdo ve mdi trddng, phong chong thien tai. dich benh, dng phd bien doi khi hau. Tiep tuc thdc hien nghiem viec sdp xep, to chdc bp mdy, tinh gidn bien che; cai each hdnh chinh, cai each tU phap; nang cao chat Iddng xay ddng phap luat gan vdi nang cao hieu lUc, hieu qua chi dao dieu hanh va thUc thi phdp luat. Tang cUdng ky luat, ky cUOng, phdng chong tham nhung, lang

<i>phi, tieu c\ic. Lam tot cong tdc thong tin truyen </i>

thong, tao dong thuan xa hpi. Cung co quoc phong, an ninh, nang cao hieu qud hoat dpng ddi ngoai va hoi nhap quoc te, trien khai va td chUe thUc hien cd hieu qua cae hiep dinh thdOng mai tU do ma Viet Nam la thanh vien; thUc hien tot vai trd Chu tich Hiep hpi cdc quoc gia Dong Nam A nam 2020, Chu tich Dai hpi dong Ian thd 41 Lien nghi vien cac quoc gia Ddng Nam A, Uy vien khdng thudng trUe Hdi ddng Bao an Lien Hdp Quoc nhiem ky 2020-2021; gid vdng ddc lap, chu quyen, toan ven lanh tho, bien, dao quoc gia va mdi trddng hoa binh, on dinh cho phdt trien; nang cao uy tin vd vi the eua quoc gia tren trUdng quoc te.

<i>Theo Nghi quyet ve kehoqch phdt trien kinh tendm 2020 cua Viet Nam dUdc thong qua tai kj! hop th^ 8 Quoc hoi khoa XIV, Viet Nam se phan dau dqt 12 chi tieu chu yeu gom: long sdn pham trong nUdc (GDP) tdng khodng 6,8%; Toe do tdng gid tieu diing binh qudn (CPI) dddi 4%; Jong kim ngach xudt khau tang khodng 7%; It le nhap sieu so vdi tong kim ngach xudt khau dtidi 3%; long von dau tiiphdt trien todn xd hoi khodng 33-34% GDP; 77 le ho ngheo (theo chuan ngheo tiep can da chieu) gidm 1-1,5%, rieng cdc huyen ngheo gidm 4%; It le that nghiep cua lao ddng trongdo tuoidkhu vdc thdnh thidUdi4%; Tile lao ddng qua ddo tao dqt khodng 65%, trongdo ti le lao dong qua ddo tqo c6 hang, chdng chi dqt khodng 25%; So giddng benh tren mot vqn dan (khong tinh giddng trqm y te xd) dqt 28 giddng benh; Ti le dan so tham gia bdo hiem y te dqt 90,7%; Ti le khu cong nghiep, khu chi xudt dang hoat dong co hi thong xd ly nddc thdi tdp trung dqt tieu chuan moi trddng dqt 90%; 77 le che phu rdng dqt 42%. </i>

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