KINH TẾ VĨ MÔ_CHƯƠNG 9: GIỚI THIỆU VỀ NHỮNG BIẾN ĐỘNG KINH TẾ pot

1
kinh t v mô
bn th nm
N. Gregory Mankiw
Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh

(dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich)
CHNG 9
Gii thiu v Nhng
Bin ng Kinh T
macro
© 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
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Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 1
Mc tiêu ca chng
Mc tiêu ca chng







 !"
#$%&'(%)$#*+
,-
./012
CHAPTER 9

CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 2
Tng trng GDP
Tng trng GDP
thc t  M
thc t  M
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
% thay i
so v
i 4 quý
trc ó
Tc  tng
trng trung
bình = 3.5%
CHAPTER 9
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Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 3
Thi gian

Thi gian

34
56778*6-
9$.:

;4
6/-2<=-
$>%
Nn kinh t s vn hành rt khác khi
giá c cng nhc.
CHAPTER 9
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Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 4
Theo Lý thuyt Kinh t V mô C in,
Theo Lý thuyt Kinh t V mô C in,
?0$@A-%BCDEF
 G67%&$%&H9)$>I<*,4
J %I687$=
J  
 ;9$.>(
?

8

8
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FK$=$)8 6%<

$)7%&L
 G7.67=6$>
HM8N97O9)$#*(
L
CHAPTER 9
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Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 5
Khi giá c là cng nhc
Khi giá c là cng nhc
P67%&7Q*(=
>(8
"I>$=I<
 , ?



F
 , ?

F
 +18,(%
9$
.
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:
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L
2

CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 6
Mô hình Tng cung Tng cu
Mô hình Tng cung Tng cu

R= !))
$>,,1'(
$#A-I)$=))7N*
,S$>)

T9-67%&$%&
$>%)

T9.)
%)
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 7
Tng cu
Tng cu

U%VK1H
-7%&L

W(A !X3YXG.

%B98
0'(=7O9)$B6
AZO9)G17%&[
L
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\%B]^D]_*#7O9)
=)BL
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 8
Phng trình S lng
Phng trình S lng
vi vai trò Tng Cu
vi vai trò Tng Cu

[`\%B a87S*%B!1
7%&"
 
b
 
4
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b
 
$"

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b]Y
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b17%9#L
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W>T$>.


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8
*%B!9O=1
Hc7>


4
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 9
ng AD dc xung
ng AD dc xung
Gd.
-7
6+
)
?
Y
F8
+9 6

0
 
>(L
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X3
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 10
S dch chuyn ca ng AD
S dch chuyn ca ng AD
Gd
.
>9#
$%V
X3
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*6L
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CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 11
Tng Cung trong Dài Hn
Tng Cung trong Dài Hn

;7`%BC4
[867%&$%&H9)$>I<
+1 
8
=
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   
7-67%& 98
-67%&$"e7.
)$%&'()L

/[(2"f7T*
ISc7T*AL
3
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 12
Tng Cung trong Dài Hn
Tng Cung trong Dài Hn

;7`%BC4
[867%&$%&H9)$>I<
+1 


G67%&-( *(
=-8
N9$%V?ZgXGF7
h$-4
8
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 
   
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 13
Tng Cung trong Dài Hn
Tng Cung trong Dài Hn


ZgXG

U%V ZgXG
h$-
-67%&
(L
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 14
Hiu ng dài hn ca s gia tng
Hiu ng dài hn ca s gia tng

M
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Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
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CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
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CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
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CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
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CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
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CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 21
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Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 22
Các cú sc cung
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CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 23
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Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
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CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 25
Nghiên cu tình hung:
Nghiên cu tình hung:
Các cú sc du m 1970s
Các cú sc du m 1970s
;-$%&
$.01
4
{ 7* ↑

{ 67%& ↓
{ T*↑
P$"7H
!e*(``L
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Change in oil prices (left scale)
Inflation rate-CPI (right scale)
Unemployment rate (right scale)
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 26
Nghiên cu tình hung:
Nghiên cu tình hung:
Các cú sc du m 1970s
Các cú sc du m 1970s

\1d
]it^4
l)
$*(e8
7d8+9
=017
|||
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Change in oil prices (left scale)
Inflation rate-CPI (right scale)
Unemployment rate (right scale)
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 27
Nghiên cu tình hung:

Nghiên cu tình hung:
Các cú sc du m 1980s
Các cú sc du m 1980s
]iE^4
}69=0
1"7&D
D 60
$#.
L
;% !
I87
*T
*64
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%

Change in oil prices (left scale)
Inflation rate-CPI (right scale)
Unemployment rate (right scale)
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 28
Chính sách n nh
Chính sách n nh

$>f4 $=,
S6,AM.
I)$=)L

W,(4 G'(,$#
17-.01
IT7&4
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 29
n nh sn lng
n nh sn lng
vi chính sách tin t
vi chính sách tin t
]
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GgXG

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\01
IT7&>
9#
)$)
$#oL
6
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 30
n nh sn lng
n nh sn lng
vi chính sách tin t
vi chính sách tin t

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,-
019
ISd
L
)H674

1s
B8%

9

!<-
(L
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 31
Tóm tt chng
Tóm tt chng
]L
34 67867%&
77 <-A87O9)
$#$%&*(L
;46-801"
#$q967%&7r-
AL
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[4
= !s$#*+,I)
$=)
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 32
Tóm tt chng
Tóm tt chng
CL
U%V11L
aL

U%Vh$-8I<
!67%&*(= 
+1- *(=
6L
zL
U%V7S8
I<!67-<-$>
%L
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 33
Tóm tt chng
Tóm tt chng
yL
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+9I)$=53v7
L
tL
p "#1$>)
IS,L