quan hệ liên bang nga - cộng hòa nhân dân trung hoa 1992-2008 bản tóm tắt luận án tiếng anh

INTRODUCTION
1. Rationale groups of countries:
Since the end of the Cold war, the main concern of countries has been to
establish a new world order, in which powerful countries play a role as “main actors”
in the international politic stage. Among the powerful countries, America has an
ambition to monopolize the world while the other countries such as Russia, China or
group Countries such as West Europe want to multi-polarize. This conflict in the
strategic target had led to the fierce competition among powerful countries.
Although the cold war has ended together with the effects of the confrontation
between the two poplars, the establishing and developing the relationship between
Russia and China made America worried. Therefore, America considered the
dominating China and Russia as an important content of their foreign policy on the
path of monopolizing the world. However, this calculation of America had been the
important force boosting China and Russia to enhance their strategic relations.
Russia – China relationship after the cold war has played an important role in forming
the new world order. This is the relation of two powerful countries, which affects directly the
stability in Asia in particular and the world in general, including Vietnam. Therefore, “how
has the Russia – China strategic relationship been formed and developed? And whether will
they confirm their position – the main actors in the international politic stage?” has been the
question attracting many researchers in the world.
For Vietnam, the changes in the history of Russia – China relations has ever affected
deeply Vietnamese Revolution. At present, both Russia and China are important partners of
Vietnam, therefore, studying about the current Russia – China relationship has been
essential to Vietnamese researchers due to its deeply practical meaning.
With the above meanings, the author has decided to choose “Russia Federation –
People's Republic of China relations (1992 - 2008)” as the thesis’s topic with the aim
of giving contribution into solving problems which researchers care about.
2. The history of studying the topic
The development of Russia – China relations in recent years has attracted many
researchers, strategic research organizations in the world.
Study of foreign scholars

In Russia: Most Russian researchers have an optimistic point of view about the
development of Russia – China relationship through evaluations: Russia – China is a new
model relationship of Russia – China, and now, the relationship between two countries
has reached the highest peak in last 40 years of development; “China - Russia relations
has been the relationship between two wonderful global powerful countries, this
relationship could change the world model”. However, Russian researchers also pay
attention to the problem whether “the threat from China” exists or not.
In China: Most researches in China on China – Russia relations have a common
evaluation about this relation. According to Chinese researchers, their relationship, in
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fact, is the strategic partnership. Basing on that, Chinese researchers stated that this
relationship will more and more develop, which will cause great effects on the world
and give contribution into establishing a new world order.
In addition, Japanese researchers also pay a lot of attention to relationship
between Russia and China. Most of the researches affirm the positive development of
China – Russia relationship; therefore, they suppose that Russia and China has formed
a new model of partnership in the trend of globalization.
In the West: In contrast with Russian, Chinese and Japanese researchers,
American and Western researchers have different viewpoints about Russia – China
relationship. The U.S. researchers stated that this was a two-floor relation: the first
floor is Russia – China relations in ties with Western countries, and the second one is
the Russia – China relationship with the U.S and Western countries. Both Russia and
China try to promote the bilateral relationship to build a “giant shadow” to America.
However, according to the U.S researchers, the cooperation between Russia and
China is a competition; therefore, it is unavoidable to face conflicts. This relationship
may develop in the future but it may contain many potential limitations in depth.
In general, other Western scholars have had many researches on Russia – China
relationship; however, their points of view do not have any common in evaluating the
relationship that the world cares about. Some scholar say that the Russia – China
relationship is a quite special alliance established from the demand of the both sides.

Specifically, Russia gave precious “gifts” of military and military technology while
Russia is “sunk into the world of gold and dollars” from selling oil to China.
Therefore, Russia – China alliance has the same characteristics as the Soviet – China
alliance founded in the 50s of the XX century. On the other hand, the others say that
state China – Russia alliance is established mainly on the basic of the
acknowledgement about benefits and threats from the US. They did not highly
appreciate the future of Russia – China relationship. It means that the anti-American
orientation of this alliance is difficult to be carried out.
In general, American and European scholars quite doubted the relation rather
than believed its development. Even when evaluating the future of Russia – China
relation, most researchers felt pessimistic. Therefore, many researchers and experts in
many countries have studied and wrote many works about this problem, however, the
viewpoints are very different, and even there is a total conflict in evaluation opinions.
In Vietnam
In the current context of the globalization, Vietnamese researchers have paid special
attention to the relations of large countries in general, and Russia – China relations in particular.
Institute for European Studies has had many research thesis about Russia such
as “Russian Federation and Eastern Europe before the XXI century” (March, 1994);
The summary record of science conference “Russia Federation in Asia – Pacific region
in the post-cold war” (October, 1995) and writings about Russia – China relations in
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areas of economy, politics on Magazine of Institute for European Studies, etc. All
researches confirmed that the “strategic partnership” of Russia and China has been
made great effects on the current international environment.
Center for Chinese Studies has held many conferences on China’s development
such as “People's Republic of China – 55 years of building and developing” (2004);
“China – 25 years of open-door reform” (2003). These works not only analyze the
reforming and economic, politic, social achievements of China, but also analyze,
evaluate Chinese foreign policies of the third and forth leader generations as well as
the relations of China with large countries including Russia.

Modern Defence Knowledge Magazine – the publication of Second Central
Commission of Military Intelligence also published writings discussing about relations
among large countries in the world, consisting of Russia – China relations.
Further more, some research magazines such as International Magazine,
Communist Magazine, International Journal of Political Economy, Asia Pacific
Economic Review, and Southeast Asian Studies also have works on large countries’
relations, including Russia – China relations in new era.
Although Vietnamese organizations and researchers have studies about Russia
– China relations after the cold war, the results have been just published on magazine
with the contents focusing on some areas and in some specific period. There have not
been any comprehensive researches on Russia – China relations from 1992 to 2008, as
well as any analyzing and evaluating the relations under the viewpoint of history.
From the above requirements, we choose the topic“Russia Federation – People's
Republic of China relations (1992 - 2008)” with the aim of contributing a viewpoint of
Vietnam about this problem.
3. The study object
The object of this thesis is the relations between Russia Federation and China in
the period of 1992 – 2008.
4. Scope of study
Regarding to the name of the thesis: The thesis is named “Russia Federation
and People’s Republic of China relations”; however in the thesis in general and the
sections in particular, the thesis used “Russia – China relations”. The sections named
“Sino – Soviet relations” used “the Sino - Soviet” instead.
In terms of contents, the thesis focuses on studying in the following scope:
The factors affecting Russia – China relations: The thesis focuses on analyzing
the main factors such as international factors, American factor, the trend of developing
the relations between two countries and historical factors (Soviet – China in the period
of 1949 - 1991).
The contents of Russia – China relations: The thesis studies the relations
between Russia and China on areas of politic – diplomatic relations, the economic,

trade and energy cooperation, and security – military cooperation.
Evaluating the effects of Russia – China relations: This relation has affected all
continents (Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America) at different levels, and affects the
international relationship, however, the thesis just emphasizes on the influences of the
relations on the two countries, on Asia and the movement of the new world order.
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In terms of time, the thesis studies the relations in the period of 1992 – 2008. For
Russia, 1992 was the milestone remarking the development of Russia Federation after the
collapse of Soviet Union and 2008 was ending year of V.Putin’s term. To China, the 6
th
National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1992 was a new turning-point in
development of People’s Republic of China, especially; it remarked the adjustment in their
foreign policy (from “peaceful independence” policy to policy of “relations with large
countries”). The year of 2008 was evaluated the important time when Chinese new policy
got basic achievements, building foundation to launch new adjustments in foreign policy at
the 7
th
National Congress of the Communist
To understand more deeply and systematically about Russia – China relations, the
thesis will mention some events before 1992 and after 2008.
5. Aims and objectives of the study
* Aims of the study:
After 1991, both Russia and China have an ambition to boost the relationship
between the two countries to the “strategic partnership”. However, this ambition also
goes together with the fiercer and fierce competition, which has made challenges to the
development of the relations between them. So, what are the causes of this reality?
What are the effects of the Russia – China relations (1992 - 2008) on the region and
the world? Solving those problems is the final purposes of this thesis.
* Objectives of the study:
- The thesis studies factors affecting the Russia – China relations (1992 - 2008)

on the basis of studying effects of the international, regional and domestic situation on
China and Russia. It also studies the relationship between Soviet and China for over 40
years with many ups and downs in the history (1949 - 1991) to make evaluations
which are the foundation for studying process of Russia – China relations in the post-
cold war period. Basing on that, the thesis will analyze adjustments in foreign policies
of China and Russia since 1992 so far and analyze the relationship between the two
countries in fields of politics – diplomacy; economic, trade and energy cooperation;
and security – military cooperation.
- From that foundation, the thesis will further study the characteristics of Russia
– China relations in order to give out special characteristics, analyze effects of this
relationship on the two countries, on Asia – Pacific region and on the forming a new
world order. In addition, the thesis will evaluate the movement trend of Russia – China
relations in the future.
6. Sources:
- Original materials: The thesis takes original materials including documents on
foreign policies of Russia and China; agreements, common announcements and
contents of discussions at senior levels of Russia and China since 1949 so far as the
foundation of studying and evaluating the topic. In addition, the materials also include
documents of Congress of China and the messages of Russia’s Presidents.
- Other references:
+ The thesis have referenced foreign materials, mainly 3 sources, which are materials of
Russian researchers, materials of Chinese’s researchers, and works of researches worldwide to
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access from many point of views about Russia – China relations, which helps to make
appropriate comments and evaluations.
+ The thesis uses researches of Vietnamese scholars as references, especially, researches
of Institute of European Studies, Institute of Chinese Studies under Vietnam Academy of Social
Sciences, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and materials of
nowadays researchers on Russia – China relationship.
7. The method of study:

The thesis is studied based on the viewpoint of Vietnamese Communist Party on foreign
policy and international relationship, taking it as the methodology to carry out this topic.
The historical and logical methods are the basic ones to present, analyze and
explain the problems in the thesis.
The method of international studies also plays an important role in this thesis. The
events, historical changes of the relationship between two countries are always analyzed
and evaluated on the basic of the specific historical contexts, and international situation.
In addition, the methods of statistic, synthesizing, analyzing, comparison, collating,
and the method of forecasting are also used to solve the problems in this thesis.
8. The expected contributions of the study:
- On the basis of generalizing the whole history of Soviet – China relations
before 1991, the thesis has re-drawn the picture of the process of establishing,
developing of Russia – China relations in areas of politics – diplomacy, and economy
– trade, and security – military from 1992 to 2008.
- Having studied the relationship between Russia and China in the international
context and the situation of two countries, the thesis has shown influences of this
relationship on the region and the world, initially gave out the evaluations on the
movement of Russia – China relations in the coming time.
- The thesis will be a reference material for researching, teaching the
international relations, the history of China and Russia in modern time, as well as for
Vietnamese foreign affairs.
9. Organisation of the study
Apart from the introduction, conclusion, references, and appendix, the thesis
consists of 3 chapters:
Chapter 1: The overview about Soviet – China relations from 1949 to 1991 and the
factors affecting Russian Federation – People's Republic of China relations (1992 - 2008)
Chapter 2: The development and main achievements of Russia Federation –
People's Republic of China (1992 - 2008)
Chapter 3: Comments on Russian Federation – People's Republic of China
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Chapter 1
THE OVERVIEW ABOUT SOVIET – CHINA RELATIONS FROM 1949 TO 1991
AND THE FACTORS AFFECTING RUSSIAN FEDERATION –
PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA RELATIONS (1922 - 2008)
1.1. The overview about Soviet – China relations (1949 - 1991)
1.1.1. Soviet – China alliance relations (1949 - 1959)
After the success of Chinese revolution, on October 2, 1949, Soviet formed the
diplomacy with China. The two countries officially formed the “strategic alliance”
relationship by signing the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and mutual
Assistance on January 14, 1950.
During the 1950s of the XX century, the Sino-Soviet alliance relations got
many achievements. Soviet became the support for China, and vice versa, the alliance
with China helped Soviet to have a strong politic partner.
1.1.2. The conflicts in Sino – Soviet relations (1959 - 1979)
* From 1959 to 1969
From 1959 to 1969, Sino – Soviet relations had splits, then split up, and fell into
the difficult period. The conflict between the two countries was shown in 1955 – 1956.
The policy “Great Leap Forward” of China in 1958 was the split up of China from the
Soviet model
After Soviet withdrew all experts from China, and cut off most material and
military support for China in June 1960, the Sino – Soviet relations was more difficult.
From 1961 to 1965, the Sino – Soviet conflict was more public on media. Two sides
blamed, criticized each other, making a politic war between the two countries.
From 1966 to 1969, the Sino – Soviet tense was more and more complicated
with the highest peak of the arm conflict in the boundary in March 1969. After that,
two countries agreed to come back to negotiate, however, the big negotiation in
October 1969 still reached an impasse.
It means that 1969 was the milestone remarking the total change of the Sino –
Soviet “strategic alliance” relationship, pushing two countries to conflict poles.
*From 11969 to 1979

The conflict between the biggest socialist countries at this time was the gold
opportunity for the U.S to pull China as an alliance to fight against Soviet. And China
quickly ran toward the U.S. In fact, both the U.S and China wanted to take advantage
of each other to get their own targets. Consequently, Sino – Soviet relations was not
only in tense situation but also the enemy relations for 1970s of the XX century.
The Sino – Soviet conflict in 1970s created threats to the regional peace and
security. This conflict made Asia – Pacific not peaceful as its name any longer, even it
was facing storms and “tsunami”.
Sino – Soviet conflict at this time enhanced the Cold War between the two poles
between Soviet and America within Asia, affecting negatively the regional security.
1.1.3. The process of normalizing Sino – Soviet relations (1980 - 1991)
Coming to 1980s of the XX century, the economic crisis forced Soviet to adjust
their foreign policy toward reduction in arms race, confrontation with America and
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moving towards normalizing the relationship with China. To China, the move
“America alliance for anti-Soviet” failed. From that fact, China, once again must
adjusted their foreign policy. Both Soviet and China came back to each other.
On August 5, 1982, the fist negotiation round between two countries about the
relationship normalization was taken place. However, for the first years of the 80s of
the XX century, Sino – Soviet relations just stopped at the level of “ice melting signal”
– not total normalization due to existing problems.
In the end of the 1980s, when China promoted the door-open reforming, the
demand of a peaceful environment was more and more necessary than ever. At this
time, Soviet stepped into the reform period and continued to adjust the foreign policy
on the basic of “the new politic thought”, moving toward stopping the confrontation
and respecting the friendly cooperative relations with all countries in the world,
especially normalizing the relationship with China.
With both advantageous subjective and objective conditions, the Sino – Soviet
confrontation reduced quickly and the relationship between two countries came to the
period of ice-melting. The year of 1989 was the important milestone for a new period

of Sino – Soviet relations – two countries announced to normalize their relations and
stated “to close the past, and open the future”.
The years of 1990 and 1991 were considered the time to complete the
normalization of Sino – Soviet relations. The achievements of Sino – Soviet relations
at this time were considered as the foundation for Russia – China in new period.
1.2. The Factors Affecting Russia - China Relations
1.2.1. The international situation after the cold war and the influences on
Russia - China
The world’s changes have been shown through changes in economy, politic
situation, the balance of power in the world and the international relation ideology.
After the cold war, the economic situation in the world was the association and
globalization which promoted the economic exchange. In addition, imbalance
development still created a fierce competition among countries and regions.
The international politic situation in the transitional period formed a new world
order, which enhanced the cooperation among countries to fight against American
conspiracy of monopolizing the world. It means that the subjective situation had boosted the
international relationship to develop both in width and depth. This was the subjective
condition for forming the strategic relationship between Russia and China.
In addition, the balance of power in the world after the cold war had been
changed. Being a powerful country with potential exceeding all alliances and
competitors, America wanted to establish a mono-polarized world while other large
countries wanted to establish a multi-polarized world. This certainly formed alliances
in the world. To control Russia and China, America relied on Japan and pulled India,
while the need to compete with America boosted Russia and China to support each
other and enhance their coordination.
In the context of globalization, the ideology in the international relations among
countries has changed. Although the competition among countries is fiercer and
fiercer, all countries wish to be peaceful and stable to develop. Therefore, the relations
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among large countries since the post-cold war have changed in both contents and

model. Despite the existing conflicts, they always promoted the cooperation
development.
When all countries are forced to enhance their cooperation to develop and
powerful countries have to form allies for national benefits, Russia – China was also
established as a result.
1.2.2. The effects of American factor on Russia – China relations
After the cold war, America became the only superpower country, which had
created opportunities for them to monopolize the world. To get their target of forming
a monopole world, America must keep their exceeding advantage in power and
maintain the position of controlling the world by all means. Therefore, for last two
dedicates, America have given the top priority to control Russia and China.
* For Russia, America took advantages of the weakness of Russia after the
collapse of Soviet to enhance their control over Russia with the aim of eliminating the
military strength and preventing the recovery of Russia. This forced Russia to face
threats from many directions: the west was strength of NATO, the east was the conflict
with Japan about Curin Island, and the strength of US – Japan alliance, the south was
Kavkaz and the unstable Mid-Asia.
*For China, the US’s conspiracy of controlling China was always clear and
showed strongly because after the Cold War, China not only developed more and more
quickly but also they still remained their socialist-oriented development.
Both Russia and China were under the direct threats from America, therefore,
certainly, they had a common condition to ally in order to fight against America and
protect themselves. In contrast with the closer relationship between Russia and China,
America enhanced their harsh measures, which threatened more Russia – China
relations. It was the ambition of the US to control Russia and China that made the
relationship between China and Russia closer, creating a fierce and interesting chess
with the decisive role to the new world order.
1.2.3. The position of Russia Federation and the demand of relations with China
After the collapse of Soviet, the economic difficulties made Russian position in
the world reduced. However, in the XXI century, the recovery and developmnet of

Russia Federation helped them to re-confirmed their position and role as a powerful
country in the world.
From the stable economic and politic development, Russia is coming back with
their position of a powerful country. Especially, with the military strength, Russia is
still a competitor of America. Russia’s orientation of developing a multi-polar world
was contrast with the US orientation of monopolizing the world, which forced the U.S
to control “the emerging” of Russia Federation.
To develop their economy, Russia, in deed, needed a peaceful environment as a
foundation. To state their position as a powerful country in the world, Russia firstly needed
to affirm their postion of a powerful one in the region. Furthermore, to fight against
America, Russia needed an alliance like China. Therefore, the Foreign policy “European –
Asian Orientation”of Russia since 1994 had focused on building “the friendly neighbor
belt”, with special attention to Asia – Pacific in which China had the most important role in
Russia’s foreign policy.
Since 2008 up till now, while the U.S has enhanced every measures to control
Russia, the foreign policy “European – Asian Orientation” of Russia has been completed in
terms of both theory and practice. In both the foreign policies in 2000 and 2008, developing
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the relationship with China was always one of the most important contents of foreign
affairs of Russia in Asia – Pacific.
1.2.4. The development of China and relationship demand with Russia
Different from Russia, in the new millennium, China had passed the reform for
over 20 years and got many achievements. The economic strength of China kept being
enhanced. Specifically, in 2001, GDP of China ranked the 6th in the world, in 2007,
they ranked the 3th in the world (after America and Japan). The strength, effects and
position of China continued to be enhanced in the world, which made the U.S worried.
Therefore, the U.S always tried to tighten the control over China.
In that context, coming to 1990s of the XX century, facing changes of the
region and Asia – Pacific, China adjusted their foreign policy from “peace -
independence” policy to “powerful countries” policy with priority given to the

relations with large countries and neighbors to get three targets of strength, property,
and the international position.
Among powerful countries, China gave a special priority to the relationship
with Russia as Russia is not only a powerful country but also a neighbor. More
importantly, Russia was the only country providing weapons and ensuring military
strength for China when China was isolated. The abundant energy source of Russia
was more and more important to Chinese development. Especially, both Russia and
China were facing challenges causing by the US; therefore, the relationship with
Russia would help China to create the counterbalance with America to serve their
internal and external benefits.
Therefore, since the Cold War ended, in the context of “one superpower and
many powerful countries”, America strengthened their control over Russia and China.
As a consequence, Russia and China need the support of each other to affirm their
position in the world. This was the foundation for Russia – China relations, promoting
The proximity of geography and the long relation history were the important
foundation for Russia – China after 1991. Further more; with the new ideology of the
international relations that gave the top priority to the national benefits, both Russia
and China needed a peaceful environment for developing. Those factors had made
encouragements promoting both of the countries closer. Apart from the advantages of
the international condition, Russia and China both had the same strategic benefits and
the same competitor. Therefore, it can be said that with objective and subjective
advantages, Russia and China met each other in the strategic ideology as well as
action purposes.
Chapter 2
THE DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ACHIEVEMENTS OF RUSSIAN
FEDERATION – PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA RELATIONS (1992 - 2008)
2.1. THE POLITICAL – DIPLOMACY RELATIONS
2.1.1. The forming and improvement of Russia – China relations (1992 - 2000)
2.1.1.1. The period of 1992 - 1995
From 1992 to 1993, the political – diplomacy relations between Russia and

China developed from the normalization before.
In 1994, China and Russia decided to improve their relations to the
“constructive partners” based on the principle of not allying or fighting any the third
partners”, “no expansionism and anti-suzerainty, anti-super politics, and not forming
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competitive political, military and economic alliances”. In fact, two countries
confirmed their wish to promote the world toward multi-polar orientation.
The achievements in politics – diplomacy of Russia – China in this period was
that two countries established the key principles, identified the basic orientations of the
bilateral and multilateral relations.
2.1.1.2. The period of 1996 – 2000
The year of 1996 was the important turning point in the development of Russia
– China relations. Two countries signed the common announcement, committing to
boost the relations to a new peak “the strategic partnership”.
The events in 1997 continued to affirm the development of two countries’
relationship. To meet the demand for developing the "strategic partnership”, Russia
and China, being responsible to the public in their capacity as permanent member of
UN Security Council, signed a joint statement on promoting the forming a new multi-
polar world order on the basis of peace, equity, justice and season.
In 1998, 1999, the economic and political crisis of Russia had certain effects on
Russia – China relations. However, the event that Russia Federation became a
permanent member of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in November 1998
made advantageous conditions promoting Russia – China relationship. Besides, the
effects from Kosovo war; from the event American Air Force bombed Chinese
Embassy in South Slavia on July 5, 1999 became the encouragements for Russia and
China to promote their “strategic partnership”.
As a result, in these two years, Russia – China relations continued to gain many
achievements. The important events of two countries’ relationship were
institutionalized; the border problem was nearly solved, most protocols signed in
December 1999 were launched. Russia and China really built a common front to fight

against military actions of NATO in Kosovo and criticized the failure of United
Nations as well as America’s using “breaking human rights” as a means to enhance
their political strength.
Since 2000, two countries have focused on identifying the orientations for the
relationship development oriented toward good neighbor relations on the basic of
strategic cooperation. In addition, in the “Anti-missile announcement”, Russia and
China expressed worry about the U.S’ plan of building missile defense system. On that
basic, two countries opposed the US’ plan of building national missile defense system.
Therefore, the strength and role of Russia – China relations are started to be affirmed
in the world.
The year of 1996 was a positive turning point in the development of the
relations. Developing from constructive partnership to strategic one opened a new
page for Russia – China relations. However, the strategic relations in this time were
just the initial foundation.
2.1.2. The development of political – diplomacy relations between Russia –
China (2001 - 2008)
2.1.2.1. The period of 2001 – 2005
The new milestone in the development of Russia – China relations was the Treaty
of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between People's Republic of China
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and the Russian Federation signed July 16, 2001. This event give the signal of the
establishing a strategic relationship which could affect the future of Europe – Asia.
The launching the Treaty 2001 in the period of 2001 – 2005 was greatly
meaningful to improvement and development of Russia – China relations. The politic
– diplomacy efforts of the two countries played an important role in ensuring the
stability and security in Asia – Pacific. In 2005, Russia and China signed the common
statement announcement on “The world order in the XXI century”, which stated the
strength of this relation which was more and more enhanced in the world.
By 2005, the “equity, confidence, and strategic cooperation” in the Treaty
2001 became the orientation of actions and development of Russia – China relations.

From 2001 to 2005, the border establishing problem was basically solved. The
viewpoint of Russia and China in acknowledging and solving international matters
had basic common, especially in orienting a multi-pole world. The effects of Russia
and China on the international relationship were clear and clear.
2.1.2.2. From 2006 to 2008
The “national years” in Russia and China in 2006 and 2007 stated the important
role of two countries’ relations in improving socialism, promoting the comprehensive
relationship between Russia and China.
In 2008, Russia and China continued to realize their strategic partnership on the
global level. This was not the new breath in Russia – China relations but also helped to
deepen the political relationship. With the confidence in each other, more exchange,
and closer friendship, “Russia – China relations became a new model for relations
among countries.”
2.1.3. The achievements in Russia – China boundary identifying
The process of identifying the west border between Russia, China with Mid-
Asian countries was quite smoother, quicker and more effective than the common
border matter.
The identifying the Eastern border was more difficult than that of the Western
border. However, Russia and China still won. The Eastern border Agreement basically
established the border on river of Amur, Ussuri but could not establish the border of
islands as Bolshoi Ussuriskii, Tarabarov, which made two countries “continue to
negotiate”.
In 1997, Russian government launched a solution of “common owning” which
was accepted by China. However, China had not totally satisfied with this result,
therefore the “common owning” in “un-agreed places” contained potential problems.
In other words, Russia – China border was not stable.
In 2004, Russia and China signed the added agreement on the Eastern border.
In this agreement, Russia accepted to give up the hold over the Tarabarov Island and
about half of the Bolshoi Ussuriskii Island while China also agreed to give up the hold
over islands near Kharbarovsk of Russia. On that basic, in 2006, Russia and China

signed the Agreement on the national border regulations between Russia Federation
and People Republic of China, finishing the border identification between two
countries and giving out specific, clear rules on actions at border areas.
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On July 21, 2008, Russia signed the agreement to return two above areas to
China. Then, on October 14, 2008, Russia officially returned Tarabarov and a half of
Bolshoi Ussuriskii Island to China. Therefore, the year of 2008 was considered the
time milestone of completing Russia – China border identifying, ending the conflict
for 40 years and opening a new way for development of the two countries’ relation.
2.2. THE MILITARY – SECURITY COOPERATION
2.2.1. Russia – China military cooperation
After the collapse of Soviet, Russia Federation inherited all military strength of
Soviet, therefore Russia was still a powerful country in military. At that time, the
demand of importing weapon of China was increasing; therefore, the military
relationship with Russia was important to China.
From 1992 to 2002, Russia supplied 91% of weapons to China on average. In
early years of the XXI century, this number was 94 – 97%. From 1992 to 2007, China
was the important weapon customers of Russia with a large volume of fighting flights
and modern submarine. From 1995 – 1997, weapon exporting of Russia reached $58.4
billion, in which exporting to China made up for $28 billion. In 2008, two countries
continued to carry out military technology projects on manufacturing military weapons.
And now, China has owned the largest numbers of Sukhoi flights. Russia – China military
cooperation helped Chinese military be modernized quickly in the late 90s.
Since 2003 so far, two countries often holds common military exercises under
many levels and in different places every two years with the typical ones in 2005 and
2007. Through these exercises, Russia – China relations in areas of military and
security keeps being closer.
The promotion of military relationship and technical transference of Russia to
China in recent years has brought economic, political benefits to China, and helped
China modernize their army, promoting Russia – China relations. More importantly, it

has the strategic meaning, which helps Russia and China counterbalance America in
Asia – Pacific.
2.2.2. Russia – China security cooperation
The disorder of the international environment in the transitional period to form
a new world order and the calculation of America about a mono-polar world put both
Russia and China into the condition of being threatened by the outside factors.
Therefore, both Russia and China had the same worry, benefits and voice in security
and national sovereignty. Consequently, security cooperation was consided as the main
content of Russia – China relations in the post-cold war era in fields of both traditional
and non-traditional security.
2.2.2.1. Russia – China copperation in area of traditional security
In recent years, Russia – China on areas of communication security always
moved toward two main purpose which are the world security and removing threats
from America.
Together with identifying the border from 1991 to 2008, Russia and China
focused on reducing army to the lowest level at border ares to build a peaceful,
friengly border. This result created a good condition for both countries to build a
secutiry environment along the border, ensuring the security to develop the economy
12
and deal with other international problems. Since 2005 so far, Russia and China have
paid much attention to build a peaceful, security relationship along the common border
with direct support of the Far East and the Northeastern China.
Promoting security cooperation at many levels to deal with controling,
surrounding of America from many directions, and mantaining the secutiry
environment were the important orientation of Russia and China. In Northeastern Asia,
Russia and China tried, through 6-partner-negotiatons, meetings of UN Security
Council, to move toward de-nuclearization in South Korea by peaceful path. For
Taiwan, Russia totally agreed with the Chinese unification viewpoint. In Mid-Asia,
Russia and China tried to solve the disorder in Iran and enhanced theri cooperation in
SCO to limit effects from America on the security environment in this region.

The existing conflicts in the security environment around Russia and China were
just like “undercurrent” but they were very fierce. Controling those undercurrents and
traditional security were the most important results of Russia – China security relationship.
2.2.2.2. Russia – China non-traditional security cooperation
The emerging problem in the non-traditional security to Russia and China in
particular and to the region and the world in general in the past years has been the
threat of terrorism and the environmetal security. Therefore, in the early years of the
new millenium, the security cooperation in this field became the essential and vital
factor to Russia and China.
Firstly, Russia – China security cooperation to fight agaisnt terrorism was
enhanced in the context that both Russia and China had a common worry about
terrorism, secessionism, and extreme. Two countries not only developed the bilaterial
security cooperation but also focused on connecting with Mid-Asian countries to
control the risk of loosing the non-traditional security through Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO).
Secondly, Russia – China relations on the environmental security in the past
years was the main content appriciated by two countries. The focus of this cooperation
between Russia and China was to protect the water resource. China – Russia
Committees on environmental protection established in 2006 have run effectively.
Through the security cooperation, Russia and China affirmed their important
roles in improving the peace in Asia-Pacific. It was the foundation promoting the
economic, trade cooperation between two countries.
2.3. THE ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL REALTIONS AND ENERGY
COOPERATION
2.3.1. The economic – trade relations
2.3.1.1. The growth in the economic – trade relations of Russia and China
In the 90s of the XX century, Russian and Chinese goverments paid a special
attention to promote the ecomic relations. However, in this time, many projects, plans
on developing Russia – China economic relationship were not finished or “forgotten”
due to many causes such as Russia’s difficulties, which made Russia – China

economic – trade relation have low effectiveness (in 1992, the two-way trade turnover
reached $58.4 billion, in 1994, it was $5.1 billion, and in 1997, it was $6.0 billion and
that of 2000 was $8.03 billion).
13
In the XXI century, together with building cooperative relations, Russia and
China paid more attention to develop the economic relationship. The efforts of two
countries were new encouragement for Russia – China relations in area of economy.
The economic – trade relation of Russia – China grew with quick speed (the two-way
turnover in 2001 reached $10billion; in 2002, it was $10.67 billion. In 2003, it made a
breakthrough with $15.76 billion, incrsead by 32.1%. in 2004, it reached $21.23billion
– increased by 34.7%; in 2005, it was $29.1 billion – rising by 37.1%. From 2006 to
2008, together with the comprehensive development of Russia – China relations, the
turnover between two countries continued to increase with new records at $33.4 billion
in 2006, $48 billion in 2007, and $55.9 billion in 2008, an increase of 38.7% over the
same period of the previous year.
The economic – trade relationship at border of the two countries was one
important channel. From 2000 to 2008, the economic – trade relationship between
Russia – China border area was more effective (in 2006 particularly, the border trade
between two countries was $10.28 billion, up 33% compared with 2005, and 44.4%
compared with 2004, in 2007, it reached $17.72 billion (making up for 36.8% of total
the Russia – China turnover and in 2008, it increased by 29%).
According to the statistic of the trade turnover of main industries in the early
years of the XXI century, China became the forth largest trade partner of Russia (after
America, German and Italia), and Russia ranked the 8th position among trade partners
of China. If including the trade turnover of two countries through small industries,
Russia – China economic – trade relations have been hotter with the warmness of the
politic – diplomacy realtions. At present, Russia and China are trying to promote the
economic – trade relations between two countries with the target of getting the two-
way turnover of $80 billion in 2010.
2.3.1.3. Russia – China trade structure

The structure of exporting of Russia to China
In the 90s of the XX century, the trade structure of two countries was not
formed clearly. The volume of products exported to China most were weapons, then
equipments, machines and materials. In contrast, garment and shoses were most of the
exported products of China to Russia.
Since 2000 so far, the export-import structure of two countries has been formed
clearly and become stable gradually, however, the ratio of products has been changed
as the time:
In 2000 – 2004, besides transportation equipments which made up for most of
Russian exported products (23.4%), materials increased sharply and become the main
exported ones of Russia to China.
Since 2005 so far, Russia – China trade structure has been changing with higher
ratio of crude materials. They ranked the first in the exported products of Russia to
China (51.6 – 74.8%). By 2008, minerals (mainly crude oil and petroleum) still ranked
the first position (56.4%) among exported products to China, then wooden products
and pulp made up for 15.5%, equipments and machines only occupied 4.4%.
The exporting structure of Russia to China in the past years has been the
increasing crude materials, and reducing technical machines.
14
The structure of exporting of China to Russia
For China, main exporting products were consumer products such as garments,
electric products, groceries, in which garments made up for most. From 1996 to 2000, the
consumer products was the main exported ones and kept increasing in the exporting structure
of China to Russia while equipments, and transportation means made up for a small part and
did not increase. However, in 2005, besides keeping the postion of the consumer products,
machines increased quickly (2.5 times), about 20%.
Since 2006, the structure of exporting of China to Russia has changed sharply
and has been stable in 4 product groups, including: (1) Machines, equipments,
transporation; (2) Garments and consumer industrial products; Metal, chemical and
other ones. The goups (1) and (2) always kept the first rank, however, the group (2)

kept increasing and ever exceeded to the leading position. By 2008, machines,
equipments and transportation means in the exporting structure of China to Russia
occupied 53.9% (up 19.3% compared to 2007), and garments, shoses increased 0.6%,
while metal products reduced 0.2%.
The exporting structure between Russia and China was condisered to be
unbalanced in terms of model, in fact, the structure expressed a special relation about
the supporting each other of the two ecomonies.
2.3.1.4. Russia – China economic cooperation
The economic cooperation showed the depth of the international relationship. Besides
promoting the growth speed of the two countries’ trade, the goverment and economic
industries of Russia and China paid much attention to the long-term economic relationship
through the common plans, projects at both the central and border levels.
In the 90s of the XX centure, Russia – China economic cooperation was
officially cared by the two countries’ goverments. However, at this time, due to the
weakness of Russian government, most cooperative projects were just mentioned
equivocally, or unfinished or slowly carried out.
From 1996 to 2000, many cooperative projects which focused on developing
transportation infrastructure connecting two countries and developing technology –
science were signed and many of them started to be carried out.
In addition to atomic techonolgy projects, two countries signed and launched
many big economic ones such as: the project on building the complex residental area
“Baltic Pearl” in St Petersburg; The project on building Chinese business center “Park
Huamin” in Moscow; The project on building paper and pulp with capacity of 300,000
tons/year in Khabrovsk; The project on building The Federation Tower in Moscow
business center, etc.
On the basic of increasing economic relations, the direct investment of Russia
into China and vice versa from 2005 to 2008 increased remarkably.
Total accumulated foreign investment in Russia and China
(American dollar)
2005 2006 2007 2008

Chinese investment into Russia 465 935 1374 1614
Russian investment into China 541 610 660 720
Compared with China, the position of Russia among big trade partners of China
was quite more modest due to limitations in Russian economy. This was an umbalance
in Russia – China economic relations.
15
2.3.2. Russia – China energy relations
In Russia – China economic relationship, the most important goods were
energy, therefore, energy cooperation had become one of the important contents of
Russia – China relations.
In the early 90s, Russia – China energy cooperation had many limitations due to
small demand of China. From the middle of the 90s of the XX century, energy became
more and more important content of bilaterial discussions between leaders of China
and Russsia.
* In terms of petroleum
On September 9, 2001, the agreement on building the 2400km oil pipeline
connecting Siberia (Angarsk), Russia with Daquing, China with capacity of 20 million
tons/ year was officially signed. Then, on the foundation of common agreements 2002
– 2003 emphasizing “the cooperation in energy plays a speical role to both countries”,
petroleum of Russia carried to China by train ensured to supply to China (in 2004, it
was 88,000 barels/day, in 2005: 110,000 barels/day and in 2006, it was 200,000
barels/day).
On December 31, 12, 2004, Russia decided to make a great adjustment to the
project of building oil pipeline, revoming the plan of Angarsk – Daqing oil pipeline in
order to export petroleum to many countries such as China, Japan, Korea. This decison
was considered as the challenge to Russia – China relations because it made China
unsatisfied. In fact, all countries must obey the rule in economic relations as in the
market, profit is the most. However, after giving this decision, Russia announced to
give priority to connect the oil pipeline from Skovorodino of Russia to Daqing (60
kilometers) to provide petroleum to China soon and announced to tripple the

petroleum supplied to China by train.
It was the fact that from 2004 to 2008, Russia became the fifth country among
countries exporting petroleum to China.
* In terms of gas
Apart from petroleum, Russia was a big gas supplier of China. From 1997, two
countries had important agreements such as gas surveying at Kovytkinskoe, Irkutsk;
the project on building gas pipeline to China (4500 kilometers in length from
Kovytkinskoe across Monglo to Rizhao – Shandong Province); the project on building
the 4100km gas pipeline from Urengoy field in Tomsk (Siberia) through Altai and
Xinjiang Province to Shanghai. However, these projects had not been carried out.
Since 2004, when two governments paid more attention to promote the energy
cooperation, Russia – China cooperation in gas has been enhanced. The Action Plan to
launch the regulations of The Treaty 2001 between Russia and China in period of 2005
– 2008 signed on October 2004, leaders of two countries directly mentioned the
launching of Kovykta gas project.
In March 2006, Gazprom and CNPC signed a protocol on carrying gas from
Russia to China with content: “The development of exporting gas from Russia to
China includes two periods. The first period, Russia will export gas to China through
the Western road of Russia – China border based on traditional manufacturing areas of
Western Siberia. The second period, the Eastern road will be built across Eastern
Siberia and Sakhalin fields connecting with China”. As calculated, the first gas volume
16
would be exporting to China from early 2001 with capacity of 68 million meter
cubic/year and these pipelines would be finished for 5 years.
Together with cooperation in gas and petroleum, the electricity cooperation
between Russia and China came into stable and has been developing. In 2006, Russia
supplied China with 800 million Kw/h of electricity and 1.4 billion kW in 2007. In
addition, Russia and China focused on cooperation to develop electricity industry, in
which Russia supported China about technical science. The results of Russia – China
cooperation in electricity were a series of signed projects on building power plants; a

series of power plants (hydroelectricity, atomic electricity) which were built (the
typical one was Lian Yan Gang – Lien Van Cang atomic electricity plants in Jiangsu
Province “Tianwan Project”). The potential of Russia – China energy cooperation was
very big.
Russia – China relations in energy, although, had certain limitations (the
freezing of many projects), petroleum became the gold key to help Russia to open the
door of Asia. Russian petroleum slaked the thirst of the Chinese giant industry.
Petroleum contained the economic, political and security contents. It became the
connection, tightening the strategic Russia – China partnership.
Chapter 3
THE COMMENTS ON RUSSIAN FEDERATION –
PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA RELATIONS (1992 - 2008)
3.1. SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF RUSSIA – CHINA RELATIONS (1992 - 2008)
3.1.1. Russia – China relations is the strategic partnership
Russia – China relations since 1992 so far has been built on the foundation of the
strategic alliance and friendly neighbor relationship. It contained both basics: the same
benefits and proximity of geography which were a very foundation for the relations
between two countries.
During the development process of their relations, two countries have shown
their efforts in removing differences and harmonizing the benefits to get the strategic
targets. This relationship was built and developed on the basic of the combination
between the national benefits with the regional and international benefits. It was on the
macroscopic scale, meeting the strategic demand of both Russia and China, suiting the
era’s trend. Those factors have been the strength for both countries to harmonize all
conflicts, overcoming historical shortcomings to build and develop the comprehensive
and long-term strategic partnership. It is enough for us to state that Russia and China
have the comprehensive strategic relations.
Russia – China relations from 1992 to 2008 developed from the relationship
normalization (1992 - 1993) to the constructive partnership (1994 - 1995) to the
strategic partnership from 1996. From 1996 to now, Russia – China strategic

partnership keeps developing in both width and depth, forming a model of a
comprehensive strategic partnership.
17
3.2.1. Russia – China relations is the Pragmatism one between two neighbor
powerful countries with difference in the ideology
With the longest common border, the relationship between Russia and China is
firstly the neighbor relations. However, the special characteristic of this relationship is that
both Russia and China are the powerful ones with larger areas, crowded population and
national benefits related to the global benefits. The connection between two powerful
countries having common border such as Russia and China is a very special relationship.
The more typical characteristic of this relationship is the total difference in ideology.
But two countries “closed the past”, avoided the policticalization of the idea to build and
develop the strategic relationship. However, the thorough typical characteristic of the
relations is the Pragmatism.
One of the decisive factors promoting Russia – China relations to be closer was
America factor. Due to having the common competitor, Russia and China had to
cooperated to fight against America. However, in the context that America was the
“superpowerful” country causing the effect on the world, both Russia and China still
respected the relations with America, needed Americal and took advantage of America
to rise. Clearly, from the starting point of Russia – China relations, the pragmaticsim
was the core of forming purpose.
Russian using energy as a means to balance the strength in the relationship with
China, Chinese taking advantage of Russian weapon, the competitive calculations of Russia
and China in Mid-Asia, the finding benefits from the same viewpoints of Russia and China
and courting the strength of each other in the relations were all the pragmaticsim.
The pragmatic attitude of Russia and China, of course, brought many results for
national benefits as well as for the common mission of both. However, the objective
rule was when a relation was established, developed based on the pragmaticsim, that
relation always contained potential risks. In addition, pragmaticsim exited, this relation
would have to accept ariations.

3.1.3. The duplicity affecting the closeness of Russia – China relations
Inside the Russia – China relations, there were both conflicts and benefits.
Therefore, during the development period, the duplicity of the cooperation and
competition still existed within Russia – China relations, which caused remarkable
effects on the relations.
Besides the supporting of each other in terms of developing conditions on the basic
of the same national benefits, Russia and China needed to create a peaceful environment
in the region as well as in the world. As a result, the cooperation in Russia – China ties in
recent years has kept being enhanced both in width and depth. However, beside the
promoted coopeartion, competion and controling each other still existed.
The first indication of competition between Russia and China was the
competition in the relationship with America. Both Russia and China respected to
improve the relations with America; therefore, they competed with each other in
developing the relations with America.
The second expression was the competition in strength: both Russia and China
wanted to control the strength of each other.
18
When comparing with other relationship pairs, the cooperation is the strategic one
while the competition between two countries was just tactics and the conflict in
benefits in situations, therefore, it did not affect the characteristic of the relations.
However, the competition between Russia and China in the relationship development
with America, and the competition in the power with each other in recent years have
affected remarkably the closeness of the relation (shown in the cooperation in energy,
military, and the attitude of China to Russia – Grudia war).
3.1.4. Inadequate relationship with the cooperation potential of two
countries
Comparing with the Russia – China diplomatic – politic relations, as well as
other relation pairs such as America – China, China – Japan, Russia – EU, the
economic effects of two countries were quite limited.
In the 90s of the XX century, the economic relation was stagnated. Coming to

the XXI century, although the Russia – China economic relations kept growing with
the efforts of two countries’ governments, the growth rates were too low.
The starting point of Russia – China economic relations was late in time and
limited in term of conditions comparing with China – America, or Russia – EU.
Therefore, the economic relationship of two countries in the past years has been
limited, inadequate with their great cooperation potential.
3.1.5. Russia – China relations was affected by American factor
In the development of Russia – China relations, the connection, depth of the
relations has changed as time, starting from effects caused by the U.S.
From 1991 to 1993, Russia – China relations in this period just stopped at
normalization level.
From 1994 to 2000, all cooperative fields were enhanced to be strategic
partnership and the pinnacle in this period was remarked by the Sino-Russian Good-
Neighborly Friendship and Cooperation Treaty in July 2001.
From 2001 to 2004, the warmness of Russia – the U.S relations and the U.S –
China relations in this period caused conflicts to Russia – China relations.
From 2005 to 2008, Russia – China tie was tightened. The border problem was
solved totally; the cooperation in energy, security, and military was enhanced.
It is impossible to deny the effects from the ruling of Russia to Russia – China
relations in the period of 1992 – 2008 that made this relationship develop as “sin”. On
the other hand, it's the U.S's governing that promoted Russia – China relations to
develop quickly and more comprehensively.
3.2. EFFECTS OF RUSSIA – CHINA RELATIONS ON THE REGION
AND THE WORLD
3.2.1. Effects on Russia and China
*Promoting the economic development
19
The development of Russia – China relations in this period – especially since
after 1996 – made a wonderful combination of two countries on the basic of
supporting each other to develop.

To the XXI century, together with movement and development of the
relationship between Russia and China, and the economic, energy, weapon contracts, it
was the enhancing the strength to develop together. The strategic cooperative areas
such as energy exploitation, technical science, border area developing continued to
affect two countries’ development.
The completion of border identification not only ensured the benefits of two
countries about the peaceful environment for development but also created the
conditions for border cooperation between two countries, which brought strategic
results, promoting the cooperation of the Russia – China border area, contributing to
promote both economies.
Clearly, the first effectiveness of the relations was to promote the economies of
two countries, contributing to enhance the strength and made two countries to be
powerful in Asia – Pacific.
*Enhancing the national position
In the transitional period to form a new world order with calculations of
powerful countries, enhancing the national position became the strategic mission of
large countries including Russia and China.
The mutual relationship between cooperation and development met the
strategic targets of both Russia and China. When America did not want such a
powerful country as former Soviet, as well as did not want China to be powerful
country, Russia – China relations not only was an opportunity for both to become
powerful countries but also enhanced the positions of each county to counterbalance
with calculations of the US.
3.2.2. Effects on the region and the world
3.2.2.1. The duality effects on Asia
*Promoting the development and ensuring the regional security
Russia – China relations since 1992 has made great effects on promoting the
development as well as ensuring the security situation of Asia. The origin of Russia –
China relations was to create a stable, security environment and make the region
develop. As being two large countries, Russia and China has had many effects on

security in Asia.
The balance between Russia – China and the U.S – Japan was firstly shown in
the strength correlation.
The balance between Russia – China and the U.S – Japan had a duty to solve
the regional problems.
*Creating the potential conflicts in Asia – Pacific
3.2.2.2. Promoting the trend of multi-polarizing the world
20
Russia – China connection played a role in promoting the multi-pole world
trend (the embryo of a new world order formed after the attack into the U.S on
September 11, 2001 and from changes of the international economic order; the
competition between poles which although were fierce, the competition was balanced
between national benefits and the international ones, therefore, it always had certain
stopping points; improved relations among large counties).
Therefore, when the multi-polar world order officially became true, Russia and
China were the countries directly born it, and also were the important owners of that world.
3.3. SOME MOVEMENT SCENARIOS OF RUSSIA – CHINA RELATION
3.3.1. Advantages and disadvantages of the Russia – China development
3.3.1.1. Advantages
The trend of multi-polar world has created more opportunities for cooperation
relations in the world to develop. The changes in the region have also brought many
advantages for Russia – China relations.
For Russia and China, having the longest common border in the world, having
the same development level and strength, Russia and China have much development
potential rather than other relation pairs. In addition, both have the same benefits in the
international relations and the same competitor – the US as well.
3.3.1.2. Challenges
The inside shortcomings such as conflicts, competition existing within Russia –
China relations could lead to benefit conflicts between them.
The problems of border, territory, immigrates also contained conflicts, making

potential challenges inside Russia – China relations.
In the current context, the imbalance between Russia and China has been
increasing quickly in both economy and military, which makes potential risks, and
challenges to Russia – China relations in the future.
The conflict inside Russia – China relations was due to the scrambling for
affecting role in Mid-Asia. The strength became the support for the competition of
Russia to fight over the controlling rights to resources in Mid-Asia. This fact was the
origin of the conflict risk about the strategic benefits between Russia and China rights
in the region. Besides, the strategy of Russia and China to the U.S limited Russia –
China relations.
The outside challenges mainly were the challenges from America. They tried to
launch the methods to disintegrate the connection of SCO. They also increased the actions
in Mid-Asia and wanted to break the connection block between Russia and China who
wanted to fight against the global suzerain ambition of America. At present, America is
publicly boosting the construction of National missile defense (NMD) around Russia and
China, increasing the challenges to the strategic Russia – China relations.
The shortcoming, challenges inside Russia – China relations always have two-
side effects on this relationship. Firstly, it causes certain obstacles to development of
the relations. On the other hand, it is the decisive factor for the stability of the
relations. Overcoming the challenges to develop is the best trial to Russia – China
relations in the future.
21
3.3.2. The moving abilities of Russia – China relations in the XXI century
The governments of Russia and China as well as many scholars of the two
counties always feel optimistic about the development of their relationship in the
future. However, European and American researchers have many contrast viewpoints
about this problem. In general, in the current world, researchers give out 3 main
development trends of Russia – China relations in the coming time:
The firs trend: the world is still in the transitional period of a new world order,
in which America continues to be the most powerful country and still finds ways to

maintain their controlling methods to China and Russia. Therefore, the cooperation
demand of Russia and China will continue to be appreciated. In the coming years,
Russia and China will maintain the situation of both cooperation and competition.
The second trend, the “Strategic partnership” between Russia and China will
more develop; even they will become an alliance if America uses tough strength to
them. In that context, Russia and China must eliminate all obstacles in their
relationship to move toward the threat from America.
The third trend, if China exceeds America in both hard strength and soft
strength, America will loose their influence on China. As a result, China will control
Taiwan. In other words, when the cooperation demand to control America looses, the
strategic Russia – China partnership will be eroded, even become competitors and the
relations between two countries will be like Russia – America relations and China –
America as today.
To evaluate a relation, it is necessary to base on objective and subjective factors
as well as the interactive environment between them.
In terms of objective factors (the international environment): although
American economy has signals of declining, America actually could not loose their
position as the most powerful country. Besides, China is still a developing country.
Russia Federation although has modest position in economic field, they holds the key
cards in the XXI century which are energy and water. In addition, they have a power
making other powerful countries not turn their back on Russia. It is the military
strength, and nuclear potential. Further more, Japan has not escaped from strategic
limitations in living space and military strength and India is not powerful with unclear
position in the world.
It means that at present in many next decades, America, China and Russia will
be three important countries in the world. The mechanism of “Three powerful
countries” will continue to exist in the fierce competition among the three ones.
America does not want to realize the multi-polarization, and not want a China leading
the world, therefore the strategy of controlling Russia and China could not be stopped.
This fact, of course, is the most important objective factor affecting Russia – China

relations.
In terms of subjective factors, from the above situation, both China and
Russia highly appreciates the improving, tightening the relations between them,
especially emphasizes the tightness and the interdependent relationship in the two
countries’ ties.
22
If among the objective factors, American factor continues to be the
encouragement connecting Russia and China, in the subjective factors, the common
benefits will continue to be the catalyst promoting the relations to develop. And of
course, the interaction between the subjective and objective will be the same
denominator deciding the future of two countries. Therefore, in many next decades (at
least to middle of the XXI century), Russia – China will continue to develop on the
current foundation and move toward to first trend. Russia and China continue to
remove conflicts and challenges to promote their strategic partnership
comprehensively. But this relationship could have some new characteristics.
CONCLUSION
1. Russia – China relations have passed many ups and downs: ever being the
“strategic alliance”; ever being competitors, and having new development. The “Sino
– Soviet interdependent alliance” in the first 10 years supported China to rise, helped
Soviet to have a strong political partner – enough to make balance in Cold War. In
next 10 years, the over-superiority of Chinese leaders pushed Sino – Soviet relations
to the abyss. The lesson for two countries in this period was the political and
ideological conflicts caused greater damages to both. The ending of the Cold War and
the collapse of Soviet became the starting point for a totally new relationship in both
model and content. Russia – China relations from 1992 to 2008 developed from
normalization, to the “constructive partnership” and to the “strategic partnership”.
The achievements of Russia - China relations in nearly 20 years have been built on the
advantageous subjective and objective foundations, especially the same national
benefits. That foundation made a new and active relation structure in the changing
world as today.

2. In general, the achievements of Russia – China in 1992 – 2008 were
strategic. Two countries established and stabilized the structure of the relations with
periodic, direct participation of state governing organizations. China-Russia Good
Neighbor, Friendship, Cooperation Treaty considered the basic for development of
two countries – covers all cooperation areas. It suits the international law standards
and has effect for 20 years. Accordingly, the bilateral trade structure of the two
countries has been more and more expanded, and the trade quality keeps being
enhanced. The cooperation in the world keeps being expanded through years. In
addition, the coordination in actions of solving the regional and international
problems has been more and more effective.
3. From the historical reality of Russia – China relations in the period of 1992
– 2008, it can be seen that:
Firstly, the normalization and development only could happen when both do not
interfere into internal matters of each other, and respect the choice of the other.
23
Secondly, it is necessary to associate benefits of each other in development, to support
each other to protect important benefits. Thirdly, it is necessary to avoid conflict when
the ability of cooperation exists. Fourthly, countries need to trust each other at all
level. Fifthly, it is important to care about the people’s diplomacy to promote
cooperation relations.
4. It is impossible to doubt the properties, roles of the strategic Russia – China
partnership in nearly two past decades. At this time, the motto stated by leaders of two
countries and becoming the principle in Russia – China relations is “always be friends,
never be competitors”. The strategic motto of Russian and Chinese leaders now is “Let
the everlasting spring be in Russia – China relations, let the friendly flower bunches
grow. Russia and China will be the strategic partners of each other for ever”. Their
cooperation was, is and will be one of the main pillars of a new world order. However,
how Russia – China relations will develop in the future is still a future matter. All
researches, comments on the future of this relationship have been just the forecast. Its
exact level depends on unknowns; therefore, this is the problem requiring more

researches of scientists in the coming years.
5. The development of the strategic Russia – China relations was, is and will
have effects on Vietnam because Vietnam is both neighbor of China and has the
traditional relationship with Russia. First and for most, this relationship creates an
advantageous cooperative environment for Vietnam with Russia and China in
particular and with the region in general. Secondly, Russia – China relations is the
relationship between two powerful countries, despite its duplicity and pragmatism,
their benefits are associated with each other. Therefore, they need each other, consider
the attitude of each other and respect each other in dealing the international matters.
This is good for Vietnam if she takes advantage of the positive aspects, in contrast, it
will be disadvantages for Vietnam because powerful countries often do not respect
benefits of small countries, even they could accept scarification and exchange small
countries’ benefits. Facing that reality, Vietnam must have “intelligent foreign policy”
in order to take advantage of the good aspect of this relationship.
As Vietnam is a small country, when having relationship with Russia and
China, the “adoring the rising sun” is necessary, and being neutral is advisable.
However, the most important thing is that Vietnam needs to be flexible, both taking
advantage and being wise to solve matters with China. In the current conditions, when
Russia has certain benefits in East Sea, Vietnam should court the intermixed benefits
of Russia and China in Southeast Asia to induee Russia to take part in solving the
regional matters. Therefore, Vietnam could be flexible to apply the “vertical
cooperation” and “horizontal cooperation” foreign strategies to cooperate with both
Russia and China for development.
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