Những nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến doanh số cho vay của ngân hàng chính sách xã hội



























i



ng lu 
này là bài nghiên cu ca chính tôi.











 







ii




      ,         
  

ngày hôm nay.
     B, M       B   là
   
 tôi và hai em tôi ; luôn quan tâm và lo
các . ó là .
, tôi xin   tôi. Mhai
chúng tôi, cô con gái  con trai mái gia
 và mãi . 
thành công hay  
 cùng tôi. G  a con thân yêu 
mình .
Tôi xin chân thành  
Ti  ng
  y luôn theo sát,    
n này. N 
giúp tôi tìm  ,   và  câu,
 trong quá trình 

 ,  
  . , 


- TChí Minh 
 , 
 này. Tôi cng các 
 MFB4B - Tr
Chí Minh 
Sau cùng, tôi g 
cho tôi 
,  tôi  


iii



  
 (NHCSXH). 
 sát  và 
 các nhân doanh  
.  c
d NHCSXH thành 
vào mô hình n
: (i) S h h nghèo cn nghèo trung bình trên mt đn v hành
chính cp xã; (ii) T l h vay thuc đi tng h nghèo (iii) T l cho vay chng trình
h nghèo (iv) T l h đng bào dân tc vay vn (v) T l ngi đng tên vay là ph n
(vi) Doanh s cho vay năm ; (vii) D n ti thi đim ; (viii) S h vay
vn còn d n ti thi đim ; (ix) Doanh s thu n năm  (x) Chi phí
năm 2012. 

qua.
 
196 NHCSXH ,
. Nghiên
O

     m   10      
NHCSXH (i) S h h nghèo cn nghèo trung bình trên mt
đn v hành chính cp xã (ii) T l h vay thuc đi tng h nghèo (iii) T l cho vay
chng trình h nghèo (iv) T l h đng bào dân tc vay vn (v) T l ngi đng tên
vay là ph n (vi) Doanh s cho vay năm  (vii) D n ti thi đim 

(viii) S h vay vn còn d n ti thi đim  (ix) Doanh s thu n năm
iv

2012; (x) Chi phí năm   có sáu nhân  
D
và C2012 
    : 
 
2011 




















v



 i
 ii
 iii
 v
 ix
DANH  x
 xi

 1
1.1  1
1.2  3
1.3  3
1.4  3
1.5  4
1.6  4
1.7  4

 6
2.1  6
2.1.1  7
2.1.2  12
2.1.3  13
2.1.4  14
2.1.5 Cho vay 15
2.1.6  18
2.2 Lý thuyt thông tin bt cân xng trong hong tài chính vi mô 21
2.2.1 Lý thuyt v thông tin bt cân xng 21

vi

2.2.2 Phân tích nghiên cu thc nghim s dng lý thuyt Thông tin bt cân
xi vi cho vay h nghèo ca các t chc Tài chính vi mô 26
2.3  . 30
2.3.1  30
2.3.2    33
2.3.3  34
2.3.4 Thái lan 34
2.3.5 Ngân hàng  37
2.4  38

GII THIU V NHCSXH 42
3.1  42
3.2  43
3.3  46
3.3.1  46
3.3.2  51
3.3.3  54
3.3.4  56
3.3.5  61
3.3.6  72

XÂY DNG GI THUYU 75
4.1 Khung tip cn nghiên cu 75
4.2 Gi thuyt nghiên cu 76
4.2.1 76
4.2.2  77
4.2.3  78
4.2.4  78

4.2.5  78
4.2.6  79
4.2.7  79
vii

4.2.8  80
4.2.9  81
4.2.10  81
4.3  82
4.3.1  82
4.3.2  83
4.3.3  86
4.3.4 Quy trình nghiên cu 88

 89
5.1  89
5.2  94
5.2.1  94
5.2.2  95
5.2.3  95
5.3  96
5.4  98
5.4.1  99
5.4.2  99
5.4.3  99
5.4.4  100
5.4.5  101
5.4.6  101
5.4.7  101
5.4.8  102

5.4.9  102
5.4.10  102

 104
6.1 m chính trong nghiên cu 104
viii

6.2  105
6.2.1  105
6.2.2  106
6.3  106
6.3.1  106
6.3.2  107
6.3.3  108
6.3.4  109
6.3.5  110
6.4  110
6.4.1  110
6.4.2  111
6.5  112
 113
Ph lc 1: Danh ma bàn chia thành 4 vùng theo Ngh -CP112
Ph lc 2: Các mu biu trong hong tín dng ca NHCSXH 116
 132





ix

DANH 


Hình 2.1

Trang 7
Hình 2.2

Trang 24
Hình 3.1

Trang 43
Hình 3.2

Trang 44
Hình 3.3

Trang 55
Hình 3.4

Trang 59
Hình 4.1

Trang 73
Hình 4.2

Trang 75
Hình 4.3
 

Trang 77
Hình 4.4

Trang 78



x

 



3.1


Trang 48


Trang 85
 5.1

nhánh
Trang 89
 5.2

Trang 90

 
Trang 92



Trang 93
5


Trang 94
6
Bng tng hp kt qu kinh  
Trang 94

Bng kt qu mô hình hi quy
Trang 95

xi




BAAC

BLUE

(Best Linear Unbiased Estimator)
BPM

(Bank Pembangunan Malaysia)
BRI

(Bank Rakyat Indonesia)

CARD
 
(The Center for Agriculture and Rural Development)
Ctg



FDIC

(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)
FED

GB

GDP
 hay GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
HT

xii

KFW

(Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau)
KVMN

&XH
và 
MF
Tài chính vi mô (Microfinance)
MFI

Các t
(Micro Finance Institutions)
NHCSXH

NHNN

NHTM

OLS

ROSCA

(Rotating savings and credit association)
SXKD

SXKDVKK

TK&VV

TYM

UBND
dân
UD
Unit Desas
Chng  Gii thiu tng quan nghiên cu

Trang 1




1.1 và lý do 


    
nghèo mà không có b


                














                

a Bang-la-der de Braza
Brazil, Bank Rakydonesia,  
  Thái Lan, Bank Pembangunan Malaysia (BPM)  Malaysia và Nayoby


Chng  Gii thiu tng quan nghiên cu

Trang 2


Cách   10  khi   tài chính  Nam  trong giai 
phát  và còn    không   dân     các   tài
chính chính  vì  là  nghèo và các   chính sách, vào   
Ngân hàng Chính sách xã  (sau    là NHCSXH)  thành  (Chính
, 2002) và là kênh phân  tài chính vi mô    Chính   cung
 các   tài chính cho      này. Qua   10 
    giá   NHCSXH 
  

.
, 

 


quân 1.5- 
   dân    có thu  không n  gia 
còn    khá  là  nghèo,  nghèo có thu    Xu 
  ngành nông  trong giai  Công  hóa,   hóa   là
    tình   ,   làm  các vùng nông thôn   nên
 xúc        lao   nông thôn  thành  và
các trung tâm kinh     .     sinh ra     
    trong     


 


cho vay 
Chng  Gii thiu tng quan nghiên cu

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1.2 


trong 
 
i)  
NHCSXH;
ii) NHCSXH 
.
1.3 
 tp trung gii quyt mc tiêu nghiên c ra, các câu hi sau ây cn
c nghiên cu gi
i) nhân D
NHCSXH?
ii) nào
?
1.4 
  chi
nhánh 
D
 
và 2012. B

 
       ngân hàng      




Chng  Gii thiu tng quan nghiên cu

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1.5 
  
qua
 
;  
 o

 
31/ 
2012  

,  
 . C

1.6 
T               


 



1.7 


C1   
trong 

Trong 
nói riêng
Chng  Gii thiu tng quan nghiên cu

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sách  

này .
 , 
tr   NHCSXH
 v chm v. Tin là các ni dung liên
u t chc, mi hong ca NHCSXH. Chi tit v 
trình tín d c thù trong mô hình hong ca NHCSXH s
c trình bày trong phn cui C 3.
sát trong 
NHCSXH g 3
khung   
C4 
 
5 trình bày k 
K
  

NHCSXH.
Và này
i,  

ngh 

Chng  C s lý thuyt nghiên cu

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C 2


trình bày trong  

 
 trong  v 
NHCSXH 
chính sách khác. 
 là   pháp  c áp dng 
h ch thông tin  cân xng trong t
nghiên  trong và ngoài Ngoài ra, 
và 
  phân .
 hai chia thành  :
-   
- Lý thuyt thông tin bt cân xng trong hong tài chính vi mô;
- 
- 
   

sau:
2.1 ngân hàng và 
này
               tín
  
trò 
Chng  C s lý thuyt nghiên cu

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2.1.1 t
a. Khái nim tín dng


 này  qua hình 2.1.
Hình 2.1: .





(Lender)


(Borrower)




Ngoài ra, 




 

 



m
, 
 
- 
 

Hàng hóa - T

Chng  C s lý thuyt nghiên cu

Trang 8

-  


- 
 ng



 


3 
-  


- 
- 

b. Bn cht ca tín dng
 hai 
sau:
- Th nht 



- Th hai 


Chng  C s lý thuyt nghiên cu

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c. Chc năng ca tín dng


 Th nht chc năng phân phi li tài nguyên


- 




- 
 

 Th hai thúc đy lu thông hàng hóa và phát trin sn xut




Theo  ba  :
- : 

 
- 




     ,        
 

     

Chng  C s lý thuyt nghiên cu

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







- 



 

   

d. Vai trò ca tín dng
Khi nói 
 và 
, 

 thì

 Tín dng cung ng vn cho nn kinh t và góp phn thúc đy sn xut lu thông
hàng hóa phát trin.


 


 



Chng  C s lý thuyt nghiên cu

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 Tín dng góp phn n đnh tin t n đnh giá c







 
 Tín dng góp phn n đnh đi sng to công ăn vic làm n đnh trt t xã hi.
  






 Tín dng m rng và phát trin các mi quan h kinh t đi ngoi và m rng
giao lu quc t.







ngân
 
  
.
Chng  C s lý thuyt nghiên cu

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2.1.2 
a. Khái nim cp tín dng
      


chính, bao thanh toán, 
b. Khái nim tín dng ngân hàng
     T       
 
các 

- 

- 
- 
c. Các nguyên tc ca tín dng ngân hàng
    : K  
 :
 Vn vay phi đc s dng đúng mc đích đã tha thun trong hp đng tín
dng và có hiu qu kinh t.

phát  - 


 
 ch 

 
, 
