đánh giá biến đổi khí hậu ở việt nam bằng các chỉ số biến đổi khí hậu luận văn ths. khoa học khí quyển và khí tượng

ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI
TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KHOA HỌC TỰ NHIÊN






TRỊNH HOÀNG DƯƠNG





ĐÁNH GIÁ BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU Ở VIỆT NAM
BẰNG CÁC CHỈ SỐ BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU







LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KHOA HỌC

HÀ NỘI-2012



i

I HC QUI
I HC KHOA HC T 





TR



U  VIT NAM
BNG CH S BIU


u hc
 : 60 44 87


LUC

NG DN KHOA HC:
TS. NGUYN TH HIN THUN








I-2012

ii
MC LC

M U 1
1: 

 3
1.1. Bng chng bi bi
u 3
1.2. Mt s u v i ca mt s u t u
 Vit Nam 4
: 










, 





 14
2.1. 







 14
2.1.1. 

 14
2.1.2. 








 14
2.2. 







u 17
2.2.1. u khu vc RCCI 17
2.2.2. Ch s biu CCI 22
:



 S
BIU 27
3.1. Biu d s RCCI  27
nh khung th th cho hai ch s . 27
i v 8 ch th hp phn ca ch s RCCI . 30
n ca RCCI theo nhi 30
n c 37
 s  s RCCI 44
3.1.3. Biu d s CCI 50
 th trong nhi  50
 th  52

 s  s CCI 54
 

2  55
ng bi s CCI 60
 th s ki 61
 th v 
3.2.3. Ch s  68








71
 73
Ting Vit 73
Ting Anh 74

iii
DANH MC BNG
B liu 15
Bng 2.2. ng theo mi ca 4 bin ch th

nhi  . 19
Bng 2.3 th p trong ch s biu CCI 23
Bng 3.1. Mt s m c c  Vit Nam 29
Bng 3.2. 


1 i quy tuy thi k 1961-
-i vi mt s trN3 32
Bng 3.3. 

1 c



i
k 1961-i k 1979-i vi mt s tr 38
Bt 8 bin biu th m bii ca nhi  45
Bng 3.5. ng theo mi ca 4 bin ch th nhi 
ng ha lu 45
Bng 3.6. Tng hp kt qu  s RCCI u 47
Bng 3.7. M bii ca nhiu 49
Bng 3.8. Mi quan h gia 8 ch s n biu th m bii
ca nhi a ch s RCCI 56
Bng 3.9. T l a 8 ch s n ch s RCCI 57
Bng 3.10. H s a ch s n cn biu th
m bii ca nhi ) 59
Bng 3.11. T l a 9 ch s n ch s CCI 59
Bng 3.12. S ch nhi 
vi thi k 1961-1990 62
Bng 3.13. S ch 
i thi k 1961-1990 66
Bng 3.14. T l  s n CCI trong  69
Bng P.1a. 8 bin m bii ca nhi s bii
n "()" ca ch s ng hp thp k 77
Bng P.1b. 8 bin m bii ca nhi s bii

n "()" ca ch s ng hp hai thp k 78
Bng P.2a. Nhi ng v ca thi k 1961-1980 . 80
Bng P.2b. Nhi nu ng vi
 ca thi k tham chiu 1961-1980 81
Bng P.2c. S xut hi kin ca ch s CCI thi k
1981-2000 so vi thi k 1961-1980 82
Bng ch nhi 
(DJF) gia thn 1981- n 1961-1980 81

iv
DANH M
2.1. (a) Ci xen k 

(b) 










 16
2.2. 






 17
3.1. 

1 ci quy tuy thi k 1961-2000
thi k 1979-i vi mt s trN3 32
ch nhi T
0
C) gia thp k 1991-p
k 1961-1970 33
ch nhi T
0
C) gia thn 1981-i
n 1961-1980 34
 lch chun ca nhi trong thn 1961-1980 35
 lch chun ca nhi trong thn 1981-2000 35
3.4a. Mc i bing c



(
T
ng h



36
3.4b. Mc i  bing ca nhi (
T
ng hp 2 thp k . 37

3.5. 

1 i k 1961-
n 1979-i vi mt s tr 39
3.6a. 



(ng h



40
3.6b. 



(P%) trong tng hp hai thp k 40
3.7a. 





thn 1961-1980 41
3.7b. 






thn 1981-2000 42
3.8a. Mc i bing c
%
P

ng hp thp k 43
3.8b. Mc i bing c
%
P

) ng hp 2 thp k 44
 s bim 48
 s biu 49
3.11a. 

a thn 1981-2000 so vi nhi ti 
95
th
ca thn tham chiu 1961-1980 51
 3.11b. 

a thn 1981-2000 so vi nhi 


u ti  95
th
ca thn tham chiu 1961-1980 51
3.12a. nht ca thn 1981-2000 so vi i 
5

th
ca thn tham chiu thn 1961-1980 52
3.12b. a thn 1981-2000 so vi 








i  5
th
ca thn tham chiu 1961-1980 53

v
3.13a. m nht ca thn 1981-2000 so vi i 
95
th
ca thn tham chiu 1961-1980 53
3.13b. m nht ca thn 1981-2000 so vi 








u ti  95

th
ca thn tham chiu 1961-1980 54
3.14a. a thn 1981-2000 dthn
tham chiu 1961-1980 55
3.14b. 







ca thn 1981-2000 c
dthn tham chiu 1961-1980 55
15. Mi quan h gia ch s  59
 s I
hot
ch nhi (d,e,f) thi k -
2100 so vi thi k tham chiu 1961-1990 63
 s I
dry
(a, b, c); ch s I
wet
i
k 2071-2100 so vi thi k 1961-1990 68
 s CCI trou 70
 s CCI thi k 2041-2070 (a), thi k 2071-
d thi k tham chiu 1961-1990 70

vi



Biu
GCM
General Circulation Model)

IPCC
 v biu (Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change)
PRECIS
u khu vc cc
Anh (Providing Climate Information for Impact Study)
HDI
Ch s i (Human Development Index)
RCCI
Ch s biu khu vc (Regional Climate Change Index)
CCI
Ch s biu (Climate change index)
SED
   nh k
(Standard Euclidean Distance)
SCD
P       n   ng
dng (Squared cord distance dissimilarity coefficient)
NDJFMA




11 4
MAJJASO







5 10
JJA
T
DJF
T


















1









               
 
         
  

.

30, 
  

 (IPCC khi tha nhn v
nhng biu hin ca bikhoa hlp 
cng nhn thy cn  nhng ng v  
chic i nhng bt li, ng thi
i. Nhng cuc phng vi biu cc tham gia Hi
ngh Bip qui Montreal cho thy ct
p v t trong nhc ch s v bin
u. Mt trong nhng ch s bic thit lp
d: 1) Ch s  u  Hoa K (Climate Extremes Index-CEI) do
   cng s [26  xut  2) Ch s phn     
(Greenhouse Climate Response Index) ca Hoa K do Karl [26] ng s 
xun t kt qu  u ca
IPCC (1990; 1992; 1995) [24]. B  s n bii
uc bich s ri ro biu (Climate change risk indices)
croft ng (www.maplecroft.com)  rng m
k  ng m bii cu.

2
 s biu hi  s biu (Climate
Change Index, CCI) do ng s  xuc s dng ph bin
trong vic  m bi ng ca bii
u  c c th [15], [16].
   () 

 
2 02  (CCI) 
 (Regional Climate Change Index, RCCI). 










 ,  
  t
21.


, 

"







"






:
g 1: 


C







  nhng biu hin c ng phng
v t Nam; tng quan v nh
 s . T kt qu tng quan s nh
mi u ca lu.
: 

s 


.
C







 v 



  kt qu 
 bPRECIS gii thiu ni dung ca 2 
 s bic ng dng trong l

.
 3:  biu 



 hai  biu

i dung: 1) Cca 2 ch s CCI
 m biu  u da kt qu 
 s ) Khuyn ngh s dng 2 ch s biu RCCI
trong vic cung cp   Vit Nam .

3
: 


1.1. Bng chng biu ph biu 
u
i gian
gng t ng ci  
i mc cao nht trong nhn 
lich, sn xui s dt.
S i nhng biu hin ca s 
 n rng c
bic cho thy:
Nhi  bi cc bc. Nhit
      u  0,74 trong 100  (1906-2005), 
0,13i thp k tro  g(1956-2005). Nhi 
 Bc Cn gp  u.
t lin Nhi i
  nhky r
ching nhic nht  thu.
Xu th lng  thi k 1901-2005  nhiu khu vc ln u cho
thy: L  a Bc  Nam M, B, 
Bc v  trong khi  gim  Sahel, a Trung Hi, am
C  Nam C. Mt s hing thi tit c i v
tn s c  trong 50 : Nh lnh,  l 
      hu ht dica t lin, trong khi
nhng t n  , tn s c kin 
l u ht  khu vc, [25].
 phu ng lai (th k 21)  gii

trong u ng dng u u (Global
Climate Models-GCM)  ,  dng
kch bi (The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) 

4
 v Biu (IPCCng dng
u   ng
c b qua  dn phm t  bii
u vi   c nhng kch bn chi tit cho quy
c dch bn biuu 
ra nhu kin bii  t
nhi ph u vc nh
 chi ti  (Downscaling) th  ng lc, Downscaling th  
i quan h gi
 d n lp b mt cng d 
(s liu quan trc). ng lng d
 u khu vc (Regional Climate Model-   m  ,
PRESIS, ng u vu kii ca 
 ng ca tng khu vc [1], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [20].
Theo a IPCC (2007) [25], nhi  mt 
u (Surface Air Temperature, SAT) s trong th k 21: i vi 3 kch
bn: kch bn i thp (B1), kch bn pi va (A1B) kch b
thi cao (A2), SAT trong thi k 2011-2030 s  so v  -1999 t
0,64
0
C-0,69
0
C; n gia th k (2046-2065), SAT lt t kch bn
1,3
0

C, 1,8
0

0
Ci th k (2090-2099), SAT s  1,8
0
C,
2,7
0
C  3,1
0
C. L nhiph bin  khu vc nhii (khu vc b
 khng ch  c bit ), gim  n nhii
    cao. ng b    u c
phng s .
1.2. Mt s u v , bii ca mt s u t 
hu n  phu  Vit Nam
 Vit Nam, biu nhiu t nh
 u v c Nguyn
c Ng, Nguyn Trng Hiu, Trn Thc, Nguyng,

5
Nguyn, Tr, Nguyn Hu
Ninh, Trn Vit Lin, Trn Hng, Nguyn
Th Hin Thun, Trc, n, , Nguy
Vit  ng u
nhibii v nhic bing ng
 bi   u. Nh  ng c        n 
ng n bn vng ca kinh t c bit
u.

u v bic binhng 
ng c c, quy ho hon kinh t 
hi ng y m k t
c gia i bi
ph t 2008.
 cu hi
quc gia i bi t (2008) 
nhng nh:
 Vit Nam, -2007), nhi 
khong 0,5-0,7
0
C. Nhi   nhanh    
. Nhi 
ca 4 thp k g-a 3 thp k 
(1931-1960). Nhi  trun   p k 1991-2000     ng,
 H     p k 1931-1940 l   
0,6
0
  p k 1931-1940
n 1,3
0
p k 1991- - 0,5
0
Cm,
xu th bii cp k va qua (1911-2000)
i k 
n gim xung. m  c
  
qua (1958-m khong 2%.

6
 ph  k 21, cu  Vi
 ng phn mm t h  ch b     
MAGICC/SCENGEN (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced
Climate Change/ Regional Climate SCENario GENerator) t
 ng kch b k 21. Ckt qu ng
kch bn c B T  [1] 
Theo kch b (B2)i th k 21, nhi 
 
0
C  c, 2,5
0
C  c, 2,4
0
C  ng Bng Bc B,
2,8
0
C  Bc Trung B, 1,9
0
C  Nam Trung B, 1,6
0
C  
0
C 
Nam B so vi k 1980 - ch bng
  7-8%  ng bng Bc B, Bc
Trung B  2-3%  Nam Trung B  so vi thi k
1980-1999. L tt c u c
ng gim. Mc bi 
ng 28-33 cm a th k 21 65-100 cm n cui th k 21 so vi

thi k 1980-1999.
1.3. V ch s biu c s d u
  hou loi ch s
bii u c s d s u (Climate Extremes
Index, CEI), ch s d b t      u (Climate Change
Vulnerability Index, CCVI), ch s biu (Climate Change Index, CCI),
ch s bi u khu vc (Regional Climate Change Index, RCCI), ch s
m khc nghit ca biu (Climate Change Severity Index, CCSI)
u ch s  i kho23 ch s u,
bi s kinh t - i - u
c li ().
Mi mt loi ch s u nhng mch c th v chuyn ti nhng
u . Trong lu  tng quan ngn gn v
mt s ch s bic d u t u ch yu

7
c quan tr Vit Nam ho chit xut t 
u, c bihai ch s: ch s biu (Climate
Change Index,  s biu khu vc (Regional Climate Change
Index, RCCI).





 

        




(IPCC).
 Giorgi (2006) [22] vi   

 
ttrong th k 21 cho 
       

 c (Region Climate
Change Index, RCCI) 
 . 
 
 
P%), 

T
%,), 
 (
P
%).
26  ca 20
 GCM  

 









 nht:  a Trung Hi, , ti

8
khu vc  cao  Bu,  Bc M, Trung M
   Nam o CPhi  sa mc Sahara.


c
  


 


 
n nay ch s c s dng  nhiu quc gia. Giorgi 
s  u  Hoa K,  .
Anber. U cng s (2009) [13]  dng ch s RCCI kh trong
th k 21  C.  nh  kh: min Nam a
Trung Hi, Sahara, , , o , o C
Phi  Phi. Kt qu p  cho thy: Trong th k 21, nhm 
s xut hin  Nam a Trung Hi  sa mc Sahara. Nhng  
s tr  a th k 21  ni bt nht i th k . Trong 3
kch bch bu th hi by tig
i vi kch bn B1  kxut hin, ngoi tr min Nam a
Trung Hi trong thi k 2061-2080.
 Ying Xu ng s (2009) [33]  dng ch s RCCI
 kh    th k 21  5 ti  khu v  . Kt qu

 u cho thy:   i mnh m nht  c Trung Quc 
,  c Trung Quc c th hin a th k 21  ni bt
nht i th k . Trong 5 tic kh, nh m nht
khi theo kch bn A1B  A2,  ng c
Trung Quc ch xut hin theo kch bn B1.

9
 Diffenbaugh Noah S. ng s (2008) [18]u
 n nh 
s dng  : nh k
e, SED) 
  ng   ng dng (Squared cord distance dissimilarity
coefficient, SCD). khng Nam Hoa
  
 Timothy C, Bonebrakea (2009) [31] vi nhng m
 s dng  s RCCI ca Giorgi c ci ti
  i  ch s bi   u tin trin khu vc (Evolutionary Regional
Climate Change Index, ERCCI). Kt qu u cho thy   mnh
m  ng nht theo ;  mt s nhit i  
s mnh m  c  i.
Baettig M.B  ng s (2007) [15], [16] 








Climate change index, CCI). C

ch 

, 




 



 . 




 





3 






A2, B2   

.
Mmt s    t qu u v
bii mnh m ca nhi  nhii 
u s . Ch s 
i bt bii ca  a nhi .
Scherrer S.C and Baettig M.B 
 dng  th  ch s CCI cho
c t li nhng bin
i ca nhi  trong th k  t li [29].

10
Nhng ng ci vng sinh h
 ,   ca
vc cn c bo tn.   Hoa K 
thc hin D c t i
bt nht, s b hng chu nhiu nhy cm nht vng c
u nhch bo tnh San Fransisco.
 thc hin nhim v  ng s  s
bi   u (Climate Change Index, CCI) bng m   
 dng 5 ch th u, bao gm:  
m nht; 2)  t; 3) Nhi ti cao
 ti th nhi 
D L s n xut thi tic ra
quy   ng vi bi   u  Trung M    
Diminica" do Vthc hii s 
c    n quc t Hoa K (United States Agency for International
Developmentng tia
 n  ng sinh hc  Belize, Costa Rica, Cng   
Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panamac bii bt
c quan trng cc bo tn. Trong d khc nghit ca

bi  (Climate Change Severity Index, CCSI) do n
  [14] n nhu
ni bt nht, c d b tc bo v
ominican.
    CCI l   ng
quc gia ho so 

 ca tng
qu dng CCI  i vi ch s n
 quc gia cn
p Quc. Kt qu  a ch s CCI
 s HDI: nh s HDI th cao ca ch s

11
CCI. Bp v  mt
s nhc kh ng vi bii
u p. Nhng qu s CCI cao (i 
hu bii mnh m) ch s HDI thp d b tvi
nhng quc gia [15], [16].
c cu v   cn
 n bn vng - i - t Nam
M n c i nhng  i do , khi
s dng ch s CCI do Baettig ng (2007) cho thy, c Amazon,
c Brazil i Nam M  CCI cao nht 
biu hin mnh m nht. Nh s HDI thp nht Brazil.
   Hoa K, Vi  u Chin lc (Strategic Studies
Institute-    u   An ninh (Triangle Institute for
Security Studies-TISS)  v an ninh quc hi. Tr
 s c s d tho lun v an ninh quc gia Hoa
K. Da theo kt qu  s CCI, ng: 1 Hoa K t trong 31

quc gia (trong s 189 quc k d b ti bii
c b ng t; 2) khong 1 phn
n ng mnh m c
               
Diffenbaugh Noah S  (2007) [19]
[28] CCI do

-   
"" (Socioclimatic exposure) do
:
(Socioclimatic exposure = CCI * (population index + wealth index + poverty
index), "H

12
. B CCI, 
.

ua  

1)    bi i c  u t  u   , c  
ng s d  
din bin, xu th  bii cu t u theo th
 bii cu t c biu hi
la hai thi k ln su th hin
nhng ph(climate change projection) ng
s dng mc ch cu t u gia thi k so vi
thi k chuu, i k tham chiu - thi k nn;
2) Mca ch s ch ra nh
H s ni bt nht. Ch s   
th k 21) t  ch th  mt ch s  cung cp

ng s tng
t v m bii khu  
biu s din ra mnh m nht, nhy c b tn
i nhng c;
3) , , 
-
 -
  
4) 

gian  
  

 
 s KH  phc s

13
phc tp trong nhng bii ca u t n (nhi ng
 i gian.
u ch s . M
ng th mng th i nhng tn ti .
D, lu tp trung i s liu thu nhc
t n   p cp phn ca 2
ch s : ch s bii ku khu v s biu
(CCI). Bng p cn , lu  ng dng 
ch s c s dng ph bin  nhiu 
  c ta khuyn ngh s dng 2 ch s  
lai  Vit Nam.

14












  






2.1. 










2.1.1. 






Vi m  dng hai ch s 
 hp ca ch s n v th c
lu dng b squan trc ti ngu.
     c s   m biu  

c hin vi s 

1) c (B1);
2) c (B2);
3) ng bng Bc B (B3);
4) u Trung Trung B (B4);
5) u Nam Trung B (N1);
6)  (N2);
7) u Nam B (N3).
B s lic k tha t ai s 
c kim tra [12], trngc s dng trong
lu bng 2.1.
2.1.2. 












































  [9]. B s 









 



  ,
V







 30km, 





 







[9].

15
Bng 2.1  liu
TT
m


 cao
(m)
TT
m


 cao
(m)
(B1)
1

103.15
22.21
1529
4

103.90
21.33
676
2


103.09
22.03
244
5

104.300
21.05
59
3



103.25
21.35
570
6
M
104.683
20.83
958
(B2)
1

104.967
22.817
117.0
6

Quang
105.217

21.817
41
2
Sa Pa
103.817
22.350
1584
7
Cao Bng
106.250
22.667
244
3
Bc Quang
104.50
22.290
74
8


105.833
21.600
35
4

104.867
21.700
56

5
L
106.767
21.833
258





(B3)
1





105.25
21.18
17
6

106.03
20.4
4
2


105.600
21.17
10
7

106.383
20.27
2
3
i
105.800
21.017
6
8
nh
106.150
20.433
2
4
H
106.300
20.57
2
9

105.983
20.250
2
5
Ph Lin

106.633
20.50
112





(B4)
1

105.783
19.750
5
4

106.017
17.883
27
2
Vinh
105.683
18.667
5
5
ng Hi
106.600
17.483
6
3


205.42
18.11
10
6
Hu
107.583
16.433
10
(N1)
1

109.217
13.767
4
3
Nha Trang
109.200
12.250
3
2

109.283
13.083
11
4
Phan Thit
108.100
10.933
9

(N2)
1
Playcu
108.017
13.967
779
3
t
108.450
11.950
1509
2
B.Ma Thut
108.050
12.667
490
4




(N3)
1

105.08
10.46
3
4

105.58

9.36
3
2

107.083
10.367
4
5

105.150
9.183
1
3
C
105.767
10.033
1






16


 PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) 







    cho  


 25km,  
  . 
   c 

 HadCM3 (Gordon et al,
2000)  . 



 , 






 

  



.



19


, 0.5hPa









 Arakawa B, t

. (H2.1).


2.1. (a)  (b) 











 [9]
Mi     c la chn   ng u  Vit Nam
trong khong  t 93-120
0
 t 4-36
0
Nc i 140x160 i.












 : 



, c nhi
i thp t ng tt chu k 
th bii. i vn b s liu ca 
tt     m la chn.         
 s dng trong vich bt cho
a)
b)

17
c ca Vit Nam. Hin nay Vip tn
t qu ng c  ch bn
chi tic v  c ta [9].


2.2. 





[9]
2.2. P





hai biu
2.2.1. u khu vc
N ng s [13], [22]  xut 
ch s RCCI da m :
- Biu (Climate change) nh s ch ca
  hn c u gia hai thi k p
   , t   t khong thi
gian nh, ththp k [32].
- B  (Climate variability)  trong


 theo   
 .  
nhi  ),  
do  
 

18
   

1)  

2)           
  chia
 .
Ch s ng dch th u (8 bin) biu th s
nhau cbing  hai thi k 
ca nhit  m 4 ch th biu th m bi
li k ch th biu th m bing t
  d  lch chu s bin
ng hai thi k . Ch s RCCI  

1) h s biu khu vc RCCI ca Giorgi
P s RCCI do Giorgi (2006) [22 xut cho bc
 i hu ch ra c  mnh m nht. Ch s  c
nh d  ln ca      bi ng 
nhi  gia hai thi k.
 








2  
   Ba, , N S, B, T - MAMJJA)    ,
M, MM, MHai, , Hai - SONDJF),  bin ch th biu th
mi ca nhi lch chun nhi, h s bing ca
 trong h:
T - Mi nhi gia hai thi k (
0
Cch gia 2 thi k);
P% - Mi ch gia 2 thi k chia cho trung
a thi k tham chiu );

T
% - M lch chun ca nhi ch gia 2 thi
k chia cho thi k tham chiu ).