Kinh tế Trung Quốc dưới tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính tiền tệ của Mỹ từ năm 2007 đến năm 2009

đại học quốc gia hà nội
tr-ờng đại học khoa học xã hội và nhân văn
*****





*nguyễn thị thanh loan*





kinh tế trung quốc d-ới tác động của
cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính tiền tệ của mỹ
từ năm 2007 đến năm 2009


***




luận văn thạc sĩ

Chuyên ngành: Châu á học

Hà Nội 2010

1

MỤC LỤC

Mục lục bảng 3
Danh mục ký hiệu các chữ viết tắt 4
Mở đầu 5
1. Tính cấp thiết và ý nghĩa của đề tài 5
2. Mục đích và nhiệm vụ của lun án 7
3. Đi tƣng và phm vi nghiên cu 7
4. Phƣơng pha
́
p nghiên cƣ
́
u 8
5. Kết cấu của lun văn 9
Nội dung 10
CHƢƠNG 1: Khái niệm chung về khủng hoảng và khủng hoảng tải chính tiền tệ
Mỹ 2007 – 2009 10
1.1. Tổng quan về khủng hoảng: 10
1.2. Khủng hoảng tài chính tiền tệ Mỹ 2007 – 2009 và tác động của cuộc
khủng hoảng 13
1.3. Nguyên nhân của cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính tiền tệ Mỹ 2007 – 2009 28
CHƢƠNG 2: Nền kinh tế Trung Quc trƣớc và trong khủng hoảng tài chính tiền

tệ 2007 – 2009 45
2.1. Kinh tế Trung Quc những năm đầu thế kỷ 21 đến trƣớc cuộc khủng
hoảng tài chính tiền tệ Mỹ 2007 – 2009 45
2.2. Tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính tiền tệ 2007 – 2009 tới nền kinh
tế Trung Quc 57

2
CHƢƠNG 3: Chính sách của Trung Quc đi phó với cuộc khủng hoảng tài
chính tiền tệ Mỹ 2007 – 2009, kết quả và bài học rút ra 66
3.1. Chính sách của Trung Quc đi phó với tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng
tài chính tiền tệ Mỹ 2007 – 2009 66
3.2. Kết quả phát triển kinh tế Trung Quc 75
3.2.1. Những thành tựu đt đƣc: 76
3.2.2. Những hn chế còn tồn ti: 89
3.3. Bài học kinh nghiệm và gi ý chính sách 93
TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO 100



3
Mục lục bảng
Bảng 1: Một s chỉ tiêu kinh tế của Trung Quc giai đon 2000 – 2007 46
Bảng 2: Số lƣơ
̣
ng ô tô thiêu thu
̣
ơ
̉
Trung Quốc giai đoa
̣

n 2002-2007 48
Bảng 3. Tình hình suy giảm tăng trƣởng kim ngch xuất khẩu của Trung Quc
sang các thị trƣờng chủ yếu năm 2008 61
Bảng 4. Tình hình tín dụng của Trung Quc năm 2009 86

4
Danh mục ký hiệu các chữ viết tắt
CDS Hp đồng bảo lãnh n khó đòi (Credit Default Swap)
EU Liên minh châu Âu
FED Cục dự trữ liên bang Mỹ
FBI Cục điều tra liên bang Mỹ
IMF Quỹ tiền tệ quc tế
MBS Chng khoán đảm bảo bằng tài sản thế chấp (Mortgage Backed
Security)
NHTM Ngân hàng thƣơng mi
NHTW Ngân hàng Trung ƣơng
PPP Sc mua tƣơng đƣơng
TTCK Thị trƣờng chng khoán
WB Ngân hàng thế giới
WTO Tổ chc thƣơng mi thế giới

5


- 
   


    qua      
              



s 
 

   ia      
 
              
             
 


t  
 
gia. 
 
 

              

6
 
nay.



 g 1929-1933,  


- 

- 



                

Ngay sau khi 

-
-


 
 



               


7

- 
2. 
- 




 , 




 




































 .
- 











 , 








 























 :
+  ?
+ C
, 





















?  ? 

a
 , 





 , 











? 

, 



?
+ 
 ?  









? 





 ? 

 ? 



 ? 
 ?
- 

 



, 






































 .
3. 
-  














 , 


















 (2007-2010). 
, 




















8


 












: 





 , 


ty, 



 , 



 . 
 




, 
-  2007-
2010. Tuy nhiên, 













 , 














 , 




































 , 










.


















 :












 :
- 










 .
- 












 (












; 










 )  .
- 

 , 



 : 
















 




 , , , 



 .










 , 





.
- 

: 

























i, 
,  .



9


 
   
 

 2009.
 
 




                




10


 2009
1.1. 

     
 , 





























 .
  , 











,  ,  . 
 ,  ,  , 











 :



. 



























 .
 ,
 .
  





 , 









 , 









.






 , 



























 . 

 






 , 


(NHTM) 


















 , 
 , 









 , 















 ; 
 (NHTW) 

11




,  



 , 









 ,  .
 , 


 ,  
 .
Khng hong tin t 




























 






































  ,
t


.




 ,  

















, 



























 , 














 










































































 
. 

















 , 







 . 



































 
.
Khng hong ngân hng 



 , 

 











 . 
 , 










12
,  . 
  , 








 .
Khng hong n nn 











.  



, 











 (







 ) 
 











.  20%




 20% 

































 .
Sư
̣
suy g im ca th trưng chng khon (TTCK) 








 . 







 , 
















 , , 






 .  , 











 , 







 , 















 , .






















: Suy


























 ,
 , 
,  . 

 









 , 


 .
80 







 1929, 
  . 

















 . ,

13




























,  











.
 


















 . 






















  . 





















































, , 
. 














 , 
 . 














 .






























 7/2007. 2007 3 




, 2008 






 25  2009, 40




 . 

, 





, 










 ,  , Fannie Mae, Freddie
Mac, 






 . 








 

, 












 .





















 , 
 , 

, châu
 


















 ,


 .
 ,  


 12/2008,  (50 ) do
  Benard Madoff






 .  




L. 


 1960, 













14
 17 


50 



. , 

 











 . 















 , 
 ( ) 





 50 

(



  ). 
































 . 
Madoff,  













 , 


 .























 , 










 .  









 2008 



 ,  6 

 ,



















 1929. 




















  2008 











 65%. 











 :
 42,1%  100 




 31,3%;  
 40%; &P/




35%;  41,2%
, 2008  ,



 









. 


 33,84%,  1931 (




52,67%). &Poors 500 38,49% 


 77  . 
40,54% 2008 (












 1971).












 






, 














 80 . 




 2008 



15






, 










 , 
x .
















 5,2% 
2007 

3,4% 2008. 








 /2008 
/2009  





 .










 7,2%  2007 
4,1%  2008. 

 3/2009, 

























 (WTO), 

 

















 . 
 9/2008.  2008, 




 2%, 



 6% 2007.

2009 10% (





 7 




).




 , 



 :  
tr







 , 












,








 . 





, 


 n


 . 


















 .


 , 
















 . Trong
4/2009, 







 29,1 


 













 . 











, 









 8  , 










 2006, 


 121,1 ( 2,3%). 
tro

 4, 









 9 








(1,4%).  150,5 4 
 9/2004. 

 15% 















 , 





















 .

16




 /2009, 



 5,7%  6 




 ng 5 



.  , 











, 1,3 
 /2009. 



 , 
















/2009.


, 



























 . 







, 











 
. 

, 

































 10 

.












 , ki





 2,5% 

 /2009, 




 8,9%.  , 


.


















 











 . 

 /2008
 3,2% 


















 35  .




 /2009  15,4% 







 . GDP


2009  , 4% 
 . 



 , 

 5/2009, 
gi41%.














 . 
 . 



















 ,  




 . 

 6/2009,  7.000
nhân viên (17% 

)  (BA) 




 , 



 800 








 

 1

17
 10 









 .
























 , 









 3  2009,
4/2009 














 , 163


. 





 /2009 



 15 , 




 4/2009 




 g 3  . 
 , 











 9,5% trong
(



 15 



 ) 


























 


, 













(SEACEN) 
2008 .


 /2009,  , 
 , 

 , 



, 




, 

 300.000 





 


(










 ); 

 2008, ,












 , ô tô, 










i (WB), 


 2009  15% 





 2008. 












 80 ,  .

 ng 3/2009 , 94 trong 116 






 (



43 











).

























 270
700  ,   , 





, 


 25% 











 .

18








 4/2009, 




 2009  -1,3%  60 .















 2,8% 2009, 




 6,2%; 

6%, 






Âu (Eurozone)  3,7%;  5,6%; 

 4,1%; 


3,7%; 


2,5% 












, 







 6,5% 4,5%. 






 






 2010, 





 1,9%.
Trong 6/2009, 









 . 

, kinh


 2009 










 2,9%; 




 2009  2010 2%. 








 1,2%,  2,1% 
3 . 










 3%; 



6,8%, 


4,5% Nguyên nhân 
 , 










 , 




t






















 .
 : 



































 .









 
 , 


 .
2007, 3 





 . 2008, 










 25  2009, 


























 



 .  21/6/2009, 


40 








 , 







 7 








.

19









, 





 /2009 




 



 2005. 



























 1  3/2009 33,047
, 10% 

























 , 














 .






















 

.  , mua
, 





 .


























 
 . Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association  





  FNMA) 







 1938 




























 . Freddie Mac (Feddral Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
 









  FHLMC) 








1970 






 . 
Mac  , 



























 , 


























 





. 


















5.300  12.000 
 . 
















 








 . 7/9/2008, 




 , 













 

.
















 . 
































 (KDB), 

ng Barclays Plc

20
 () 
Lehman Brothers . 15/9/2008, Lehman Brothers , 










,  158 , 







 700 t, 













 613 . 








. 

















  . Lehman
 , 
















 : 

















.  , nguyên nhân 

















.












Ba







 94 



,
 1,02  . 2007 2008, Merrill




 16  , 




. 


















, Bank of










 50  . 
 & Co, 







JPMorgan Chase & 

 . 
 2.700 .















International Group (AIG) 








 . AI
























 1,05  116.000 nhân viên .AIG
 130 


, 



 74 














 





















 . 

 9 , 




 18 . 















FED. 







  . 
16/9/2008,  85 

21








 , 



 , 


80% 
















 .















 ,
 10 , 





16 , 




 .  















 Washington Mutual Inc (WaMu)  . 
 1889, 




  307 , 
 . 
























 , 















  . 












 1,9 . 







 95% 

1 





 0,45 USD/


 

. 











, 











 , 















 6 





 .


 ck, 





 5 




























. 













 32% 
 14 15/9/2008, 












 ,






 . 15/9, 
 72 
































 1  . 






,  ,




  125%  , 
























 . 18/2/2009, 






 














 , 







 90

22
pence/

.  379 



 , 

10 









 . 





 
 ,  22/2/2009, 




 . 

















1970 



.
 (GM) y 1/6/2009 
 4 




. 



 2008, 













 , sau Toyota.  




 , 

 77 



 1931 2007, GM










 . 




244.500 




,  140 gia. 
, 









 82,3 , 



 172,81 
USD.  50 
 60% 
















 . Theo chuyên gia
 , 















 , 



















 .
, 

















10/2008, 










 .  11/2007, 










   1  , 












 . 












 . 
 . 





























 .
 :  








 .

23
















 























 . Theo
 (BTT) 

 5/2009, 




 











 239 



 ; 



 2009
39 59 





 2007.
4/2009 









 10 
 


 .






 4/4/2009  , 


3/2009, 80.000 





















5  . 

 6/2009, 

 










627.000 

.
 , 


5% 4/2009 lên 5,2% 

5/2009 
5 




.




i Anh, 










(CBI),  17.000 




/2009  15.000 



 13.000 







III.

























 (OECD) 




 37,2 



 2008,  57










 30 





 
2010, 












 10%  2010 (






1970).





















 : 
 




. 





 1/5 
.

24






 , 

















 11.9000 , 







 6,7 
 1.779 








 . 

















 , 



 1.227 
Anh (2.000 




















 

 .
Theo Telegraph, 20 





 (G20) 















 10,2%  2009, 




 2.  13,5% GDP, Anh 11,6% 


10,3%.
: 
 , 







. 









 









 . 
 , 








 , , 

 , 






, 



 











 , 




 2007  2008 



















 . 












 c (FAO),  2007 36 

























 (

: 

 21


, 




9 

, 

 

4 

). 

5/2009, 
  29% 









 6/2008 


10% 








 2/2009. 

































 2008.