Quan hệ kinh tế Việt Nam - Hoa Kỳ triển vọng hợp tác

CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO
06-2010
KINH TE-XA HOI
^'
OUAN
HE KINH TE VIET NAM
^
HOA KY
^'
TRIEN VONG
HdP
TAC
N
gay 12 thang 7 nam 1995,
Viet Nam va Hoa Ky chinh
thiic
thiet lap quan he ngoai
giao,
va lich
sii
dang mci ra mot giai
doan phat trien mdi trong quan he
giQa hai
nifdc.
Quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa
Ky 15 nam qua, ttf khi Hoa Ky bo cam
van chong Viet Nam ngay 03/02/1994,
thiic hien cong nhan ngoai giao va
binh
thUdng
hoa quan he (12/7/1995)

den nay, da trai qua nhieu moc phat
trien quan trong: Dam phan va ky ket
Hiep dinh Thifdng mai song
phiidng;
ky ket cac hiep dinh ve thiic hien
Quyen tac gia, khong ap dung Dieu
luat Jackson-Vanik, eac hiep dinh
OPIC,
Ngan hang, Khoa hoc va Cong
nghe, Det - may, Hang khong, Kinh te
va Ky thuat, Nong nghiep, Viet Nam
gia nhap
V^TO,
ap dung PNTR, Hiep
dinh
TIFA
Nhiing
biidc
phat trien
trong quan he kinh te giiia Viet Nam
va Hoa Ky da tao nhiing dieu kien
quan trong cho chiing ta nhin nhan,
danh gia mot
each
khach quan ve moi
quan he song
phiidng
giiia hai niidc.
Trong bai viet nay, chiing toi trinh
Nguy§n

Thiet Sofn
Vien Nghien
ciiu
Chdu My
bay ba van de: (1) Ve quan diem quan
he hdp tac Viet Nam va Hoa Ky; (2)
Dii
bao trien vong quan he kinh te
Viet Nam - Hoa Ky; va (3) Dinh
hifdng
chinh
sach giai phap quan he
kinh te' Viet Nam - Hoa Ky,
nhim
gdp
phan neu trien vong quan he kinh te
giiia hai niidc trong 10-15 nam tdi.
I. Quan diem quan he hcfp tac
Trong 15 nam qua, Viet Nam da cd
nhiing
biidc
tien quan trong trong
quan he vdi Hoa Ky: tii cam van den
thiet lap quan he ngoai giao, ky ket
BTA, tii kim ngach xuat nhap khau
khong dang kd dau nhiing nam 1990,
den 15 ty USD hien nay giiia hai
niidc
Tuy nhien, 15-20 nam tiep
theo se c6 nhiing

biidc
tien ngoan muc
nhii
vay khong, khi ma ca My va
Vi§t
Nam se gap nhieu thach thiic ve cai
each
va cau
true
lai nen kinh te, ve
nhiing van de an ninh truyen tho'ng
va phi truyen thdng, ve thien tai bao
lut, dich benh Theo chiing toi, cd the
neu Viet Nam cd chien
liidc
diing
din
phat trien nhanh va ben viing, va day
manh hdn niia quan he tich
ciic
vdi
so
06-2010 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
Hoa Ky. Dieu nay phu thuoc vao nhan
thiic,
quan diem va viec thiic hanh
phat trien ben viing va quan he tich
cite
vdi Hoa Ky cua Viet Nam.
Chung toi cho

ring,
mudn hdp tac
lau dai, c6 hieu qua va tin cay lan
nhau, chiing ta can biet quan diem ciia
Hoa Ky ve nhiing ldi ich va muc tieu
cua Hoa Ky trong viec thiet lap quan
he song phifdng vdi Viet Nam va nhiing
van de dd
ciia
Viet Nam vdi Hoa Ky.
2.
Quan diem cua Hoa Ky
Theo cac tai lieu cua Hoa
Ky\
chiing
toi thay Hoa Ky co cac quan diem ve
Icfi
ich vd muc tieu cua Hoa Ky trong quan
he
v&i
Viet Nam
nhif
sau:
Nhiing nhan to' tao nen ldi ich ciia
Hoa Ky gom: quan he
thiidng
mai va
dau
tU;
cong ddng ngifdi My goc Viet tai

Hoa Ky; cac di san
ciia
chie'n tranh Viet
Nam; quan he thong qua cac the che' da
phifdng (Lien Hiep quoc, APEC, ARF,
Hiep dinh
Doi
tac Xuyen Thai Binh
DUdng
- TPP ); chia se quan tam ve
Slf noi len manh me
ciia
Trung Quoc.
Nhiing muc tieu cua Hoa Ky gom:
cac mo'i quan he than thien phat trien
hdn,
difa
Viet Nam hoi nhap sau hdn
vao trao
lifu
chinh cua cac quoc gia;
md
ciia
thi trifdng cho thifdng mai va
dau
tU;
thiic day nhan quyen va dan
chii;
duy tri anh hifdng ciia Hoa Ky ci
Dong Nam A.

Ben canh nhiing nhan dinh tren day,
con
CO
rat nhieu danh gia khac ve quan
he Hoa Ky - Viet Nam, chang han,
thang 10/2009, Ngoai trifdng Hoa Ky
Hillary Clinton da tai khing dinh vdi
Phd Thu tifdng Pham Gia Khiem ve
quan diem va cam ket ciia Hoa Ky tang
cifdng
va lam sau rong them quan he
vdi Viet Nam (ve an ninh, thifdng mai
dau
tif,
nhan quyen, hdp tac nhan dao,
chorig
thien tai ); thang 4/2010, tai
Dai hoc Ngoai thifdng Ha Noi,
Thii
trifdng Ngoai giao My Robert D.
Hormats phat bieu y kie'n ve mot so'
van de lien quan den quan he Hoa Ky -
Viet
Nam^,
da noi, Hoa Ky cam ket
tang cifdng moi quan he
doi
tac vdi Viet
Nam, coi day la cd
sei

trong
sii
hien dien
ciia Hoa Ky tai khu
viic,
va quan he
trong khuon kho Hiep dinh
Ddi
tac
Xuyen Thai Binh Difdng (TPP) se la
mot
bifdc
tien
tii
nhien cung co' moi
quan he kinh te nang dong giiia Viet
Nam va Hoa Ky. Ben canh do, theo
Sang kien Xuat khau Quoc gia ciia
Tong
thoiig
Obama, Viet Nam se la
mot trong cac thi trifdng ma Hoa Ky
ifu
tien thiic day moi quan he thifdng mai.
Ong cho rang, Hoa Ky san sang va luon
mong muon trd thanh do'i tac quan
trong ho trd nhiing no
liic
tiep tuc hien
dai hoa nen kinh te cua Viet Nam.

Trong tifdng lai, Hoa Ky mud'n tie'p tuc
phat trien va
md
rong
moi
quan he vdi
Viet Nam de giiip Viet Nam tiep tuc
ddng vai trd tich
ciic nhii
mot nen kinh
te dang noi va la
doi
tac kinh kinh
doanh co trach nhiem.
Co the cho rang, quan diem ciia
phia Hoa Ky la dang thiic day, hifdng
tdi va cam ket phat trien hdn niia mdi
quan he hdp tac tich
ciic
va hiiu nghi
vdi Viet Nam.
CHAU
MY
NGAY NAY
SO 06-2010
2.
Quan
dietn
cua Viet Nam
Co the cho rang, nhiing quan diem

ciia
Nha
nifdc
Viet Nam ve ldi ich va
muc tieu cua Viet Nam trong quan he
vdi Hoa
Ky'^
nhif
sau: Hien nay My la
nifdc
phat trien nhat the gidi, co tiem
liic
kinh te, an ninh quan
sii,
chinh
tri,
khoa hoc cong nghe, dao tao deu
diing hang dau the gidi; Viet Nam
nhat quan thiic day cac moi quan he
hiiu nghi tich
ciic
vdi Hoa Ky
nhim
thiic hien da dang hda, da phiidng hoa
cac quan he doi ngoai tren tinh than
la ban
ciia
tat ca cac
nifdc
tren the

gidi,
va hifdng tdi mot quan he hiiu
nghi lau dai, ben viing, ton trong lan
nhau, ciing co ldi, khong anh hudng
den mot ben thii ba nao khac.
Qua trinh bay nhiing noi dung cd ban
ve quan diem cua Hoa Ky va cua Viet
Nam, chiing toi cho
ring,
hai ben da c6
nhan thiic va quan diem hdp ly ve
moi
quan he song phifdng, tao cd
sei
phap ly
md rong quan he kinh te toan dien vdi
nhau mot
each
nang dpng, hieu qua va
ben viing. Viet Nam
c&n
chii dong, nang
dong hdn niia trong viec thie't lap va md
rong cac quan he vdi Hoa Ky hien tai va
trong 15 nam tdi.
Y kien nhan xet cua chung toi
la:
vi lpi ich ciia minh, Viet Nam va
My da
CO

quan diem hdp tac song
phifdng ro rang va tich
ciic,
c6 kha
nang dUa hai dan
toe
hifdng tdi mpt
tifdng lai
tifdi
sang hdn. Co the con co
nhi/ng trd nggi trong
thiCc
tiin quan
he giifa hai niidc, nhiing do khong
con,
hay khong phdi la nhifng trd nggi
thuoc logi chu yeu nifa. Dieu nay c6
nghia la gidi thiic tien can gat bo
nhiing tieu tiet trong quan he giiia
hai
nifdc,
de thiic hien va hifdng tdi
hdp tac toan dien nhiing van de cot
loi,
thiic chat thuoc ldi ich cd ban
ciia
hai
nifdc.
Tren cd sd do, chiing toi neu
mot

so'
dii
bao
nhif
sau.
II.
Dvf
bao trien vong quan he
kinh te
De mci rong quan he kinh
te
vdi Hoa
Ky vi
sii
phat trien cua Viet Nam, trifdc
tien chiing ta can thay difdc nen kinh
te Viet Nam se phat trien
nhii
the nao
de hdp tac vdi Hoa Ky.
1.
Trien
vgng
phdt trien mo
hinh kinh
teViet
Nam
Theo chiing toi, Viet Nam
c&n
c6

noi
liic
viing manh, nham ket hdp va
phat huy yeu to' ngoai
liic
co hieu qua.
Muoii
vay, Viet Nam can nhanh
chong chuyen tii phat trien kinh te
theo chieu rong sang phat trien theo
chieu sau, chat
liidng,
hieu qua,
nhanh va ben viing.
Tii quan niem
nhif
vay, chiing toi
cho rang, mo hinh phdt trien kinh te
cua Viet Nam cdn phdi la mo hinh kinh
te thi trifdng phdt trien ben vifng. V6i
mo hinh nay, difdng nhien phat trien
kinh te phai difdc dien ra trong mot
moi quan he hai hoa giiia tang
trifcing
kinh te nhanh, hien dai, xa hoi dan
chii
- cong
bing
- van minh, moi trifdng
trdng sach, vi ldi ich cua nhan dan.

Dang Cdng san Viet Nam
chii
trifdng
phat trien mot nen kinh te thi trifdng
so
06-2010
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
theo dinh hifdng xa hdi
chii
nghia, theo
chiing toi, la theo nghia tren day, va
chii
trifdng do can difdc nhan manh hdn
niia tai Dai hdi Dang lan
thii
XI sap tdi.
Chiing toi
dii
bao quan he kinh te Viet-
My chinh tren mo hinh phat trien kinh
te do cua Viet Nam, vi neu mo hinh
khac,
hoac noi dung cua mo hinh khac
di,
viec hdp tac se khdng hieu qua.
2.
Kich bdn trien
vpng
phdt
trien quan he kinh te Viet-My

Trong 15 nam tdi, trien vong quan
he hdp tac kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky
c6 the tie'n trien theo mot so' hifdng
kich ban sau:
Hudng
thif
nhd't, trien vgng quan he
kinh te giifa hai niidc cd the phdt trien
rdt
cao. Vi hien nay, quan he giiia hai
nifdc
dang c6 xu hifdng phat trien tich
Clic,
nhiing nhan to' can trci tie'n trinh
phat trien quan he ciia hai
nifdc,
nhin
chung, khong qua manh.
Hiidng thif
hai, trien vgng phdt
trien quan he kinh
teViet
Nam - Hoa
Ky se phdt trien cao, on dinh, phu hdp
vdi tie'n trinh phat trien nhanh cua
Viet Nam, khi nhiing nhan to' thiic
day difdc hai ben duy tri va phat
trien. Day la hudng phat trien cd tfnh
hien thiic, khong qua lac quan, nhifng
dap ifng difdc nhu cau phat trien cua

Viet Nam.
Ben cgnh do, ve ly thuyet,
vin
co the
c6 mot hiidng
thif
ba phat trien ngoai
mong muo'n trong quan he kinh te giiia
hai
nifdc,
do la hudng trien vgng phdt
trien quan he kinh te song
phiicfng
giifa
hai nifdc se chgm, tri tre, do co nhieu
bie'n dong ldn,
ngUdc
chieu trong quan
he song phifdng, trong tifng nifdc, va ca
trong
bdi
canh qudc te.
Tren cd
sei
nghien ciiu va so sanh
ba hifdng phat trien quan he kinh te
Viet Nam - Hoa Ky, chiing toi cho
rang, Viet Nam can chii ddng phat
trien cac mo'i quan he hdp tac kinh
te

vdi Hda Ky thee kich ban
thii
hai.
Tai sad va
diia
tren cd sd nad de
dii
bao cac kich ban
nhif
vay? Chiing toi
diia
vao viec phan tich nhiing nhan to'
tac dong
nhif
sau:
3.
Mgt
so nhdn to tdc dgng tdi
quan he Viet-My
Dii
bao trien vong phat trien quan
he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky theo
nhiing
hudng
kich ban tren deu phai
diia
tren nhiing
.cd
sd khach quan ve
sii

phat trien kinh te - xa hoi Viet
Nam va Hoa Ky, ve thiic trang va
trien vong quan he song phifdng, ve
nhiing thach thiic, nhiing kha nang,
tiem
liic,
dieu kien phat trien cua moi
nifdc va boi canh qud'c te. Nhiing nhan
te'
nay c6 the difdc trinh bay
nhif
sau.
a) Nhdn
to've
phia Viet Nam.
Hien nay, chiing ta c6 mot ye'u to'
rat thuan ldi cho dtf bao trien vong
quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky,
do
la.
Dang Cong san Viet Nam dang
chuan bi tie'n hanh Dai hoi lan thii XI.
Difdi
anh sang cua Dai hoi Dang, Viet
Nam se c6 chuan
miic
phat trien
manh me hdn chd thap ky tdi.
Chiing
tdi cho

ring,
nhan dan Viet Nam va
nhieu
doi
tac kinh te cua Viet Nam
mdng
mud'n
cac Nghi quye't cua Dai
hoi Dang se tao nen
bifdc
phat trien
manh me, ben viing theo hifdng tie'p
tuc cai
each
kinh te, md
ciia
(ben
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
SO 06-2010
trong va ben ngeai),
nhim
tang cifdng
siic
manh npi
liic
trong nifdc va
sii
dung to'i da nhan to' quan he
quo'c
te

cho
sii
phat trien cua Viet Nam.
Kinh te Viet Nam
tif
khi thiic hien
Doi mdi de'n nay da phat trien thuan ldi
hdn trifdc dd, nhUng
vin
cdn tdn dong
va gap nhieu kho khan thach thiic ldn
can
vUdt
qua. Do la nhiing van de ve
phat trien ben viing, tai chinh tien te,
lam phat, cai each doanh nghiep nha
nifdc,
khu
viic
kinh te tu nhan chifa
difdc
chii
trpng diing
miic
va binh dang,
van de lad dong va viec lam cham difdc
giai quye't, trinh do
ceng
nghe thap cua
nhieu nganh, kha nang canh tranh

qudc te thap, hieu qua kinh te - xa hoi
tha'p,
mat can do'i nganh va dia
phifdng, tham nhiing
Ben canh nhan td' kinh te, nhiing
nhan to' khac
nhif
dn dinh chinh tri -
xa hoi, an ninh quoc gia, cac mo'i quan
he quoc te cua Viet Nam, quan he vdi
Hoa Ky, ciing
nhif
bdi canh quo'c te
noi chung, can difdc duy tri phat
trien dap
ifng
nhu cau phat trien cua
Viet Nam trong nhiing nam tdi.
De phat trien hdp tac kinh te vdi
My
nhif
la met doi tac quan trpng bac
nhat, Viet Nam can tuan thu nguyen
tic
phat trien vung lanh tho, phat
trien
ifng
dung cong nghe, phat trien
nganh nghe, san pham mot
each

nghiem ngat, khoa
hoc"
de tao the
phat trien ddng bo, lien hoan cua toan
bo nen kinh te quo'c dan mot
each
manh me va ben viing. Viet Nam
cin
chii
dong thiic
diy
quan he xua't nhap
khau triic tie'p vdi cac do'i tac My,
khong thong qua trung gian.
.;
"
'
Vdi nhiing dieu kien tren, co the
dii
doan, kim nggch xudt nhdp khdu giiia
Viet Nam va Hoa Ky se tang cao, tdc
do tang trifdng kim ngach se dat hai
con so', khdang 30-45% hang nam. Ve
xuat khau,Viet Nam van xuat sieu
sang My, cd cau mat hang va chung
loai hang hoa co nhiing thay doi so vdi
trifdc day, cac mat hang co gia tri gia
tang cao tang len, chung loai hang
hoa pheng
phii

hdn trifdc; cac loai
hang hda gia cdng, c6 gia tri gia tang
thap giam dan ty trpng trdng xua't
khau sang Hoa Ky. Hang hda Viet
Nam
CO
kha nang canh tranh tren thi
trifdng the gidi va Hea Ky, Viet Nam
thay doi
din
hinh anh va trci thanh
nifdc xuat khau hang hda difdc
ifa
chuong sang Hoa Ky.
Hang hda nhap khau tii My tang
len: Nhiing hang may moc thie't bi
thuoc cong nghe nguon can thiet cho
nhu clu md rpng san xuat kinh doanh
dich vu tang len dang ke; hang nguyen
vat lieu tang (dap iing nhu clu san
xuat kinh ddanh, mpt
phin
ldn phuc vu
gia cong xuat khau
nhif
nhieu nam
trifdc);
hang tieu dilng nhap khau tif
My giam (do nhieu mat hang tieu diing
von trifdc day phai nhap tif Hoa Ky,

nay co the co difdc nhd phat trien san
xuat cua cac cong ty Hoa Ky tai Viet
Nam)
Ve quan he ddu
tii:
Hoa Ky
chii
trpng
diu tif
vao Viet Nam vi thu
difdc nhieu ldi ich da trung (kinh te,
chinh tri, an ninh quoc phong, quan
he qud'c te ) va
gin sii
hdp tac phat
trien vdi Viet Nam vdi ldi ich quo'c gia
SO 06-2010
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
ciia My ci khu
viic
Dong Nam A, ciing
nhif ci
Chau A - Thai Binh Difdng.
Do
vay.
My se tang cifdng dau
tif
trong nhieu
linh
viic,

nganh nghe
rpng
khip
cac dia phiidng
ci
Viet Nam,
cac
dii
an
diu tif
se cd quy mo ldn,
trinh do cong nghe cao tao da va
dieu kien cho nen kinh te Viet Nam
phat trien cao va dn dinh trdng 15-20
nam tdi, d6 la vi ldi ich cua My va
ciing rat
phii
hdp ldi ich phat trien
ciia Viet Nam.
Nhif
vay co the
dif
doan ve
mtfc
dp
dau
tif
cua My vao Viet Nam ciing
tang manh ca ve quy mo lan chat
Iifdng trdng nhiing nam tdi. Miic

diu
tif
trung binh hang nam ciia Hda Ky
vao Viet Nam tang len se vdi hien
nay.
Teng diu tif
thiic hien tich liiy
lai cua Hoa Ky d Viet Nam de'n nam
2020 se dat khdang 30-35 ty USD,
trung
binh
hang nam khoang 3 ty
USD.
Chifa ke kha nang thu
hiit ve'n
diu tif
gian tie'p tif Hoa Ky se tang
len trong thdi ky de'n nam 2020.
Cd the ndi, theo kich ban
thii
hai,
chiing ta co the
dii
doan
diu tif
cua
My vao Viet Nam se tang len he't
siic
nhanh chdng, vi vay, Viet Nam
cin

phai tich
ciic
cau triic lai nen kinh te
de tie'p nhan FDI ttf Hoa Ky (va mpt
so'
nifdc phat trien khac) mpt each co
hieu qua nhat.
b) Nhiing nhdn
tdvephia
Hoa Ky.
Theo chiing toi, nhiing nhan to' ve
phia Hoa Ky bao gom: nhiing nhan to
kinh te', chinh tri, an ninh, xa hpi, ben
trong nifdc My va lien quan de'n quan
he quo'c te, trong d6 c6 Viet Nam.
Ve kinh te, co the
dii
doan, sau khi
vifdt
qua khung hoang tai chinh -
kinh te hien nay, nen kinh te Hoa Ky
se phat trien theo mpt trong cac
hif6ng
sau day:
1) De bao ve ldi ich
sorig
con, duy
tri dia vi sieu cifdng so' mpt the
gidi.
My

cin
phai coi phat trien kinh te la
nhiem vu so' 1 va do do, can tap trung
toan bp
siic
manh quoc gia de khoi
phuc va phat trien kinh te mpt
each
nhanh nhat va manh nhat. My se
phai cau triic lai nen kinh te, phat
huy nhiing the manh
vo'n
cd ciia cac
nganh dting
diu
the gidi ciia My, to
chtfc
lai he tho'ng ngan hang tai
chinh, de khong the lap lai nhiing sai
lam dien ra trong nhiing nam qua,
nang cao trinh do cong nghe (chat
xam) ciia cac nganh san xuat, dieh vu
nhim
c6 kha nang canh tranh cao hdn
tren thi
triidng
quoc te va ngay tren
thi trifdng trong nifdc. Trong quan he
kinh te quoc te, My se tiep tuc
chii

trpng ky ke't FTA
vcli
cac nifdc de triic
tie'p nang cao hieu qua kinh te - xa
hpi ciia nifdc My, va
nhif
vay, viec
diu
tif
va phat trien trao doi thifdng mai
se difdc thiic day manh qua difdng
song phifdng, hdn la da phifdng. Ddng
thdi,
My cung se tien tdi ky ket FTA
vdi khu
viic
Nam My va khu
viic
chau
A - Thai Binh Difdng (nen tang la
APEC), phat trien cac del tac xuyen
Thai Binh Difdng,
nhim
tao ra moi
trifdng kinh te va pham vi anh
hucing
kinh te thuan ldi chd Hoa Ky.
2) Vdi nhiing muc dfch
nhif
tren,

nhifng Hoa Ky khong thiic hien difdc
nhiing mong muon cau triic lai nen
CHAU
MY NGAY NAY
SO 06-2010
kinh te' va to chiic lai cac moi quan he
kinh te quo'c te cua minh (co the de
nhieu nguyen nhan ma My
kheng
tap
trung
dUdc sifc
manh quoc gia). Neu
nhif
vay, nen kinh te ciia Hoa Ky lai e6
the quay trd lai gap nhiing khd khan
phiic tap nhu vtfa qua. Va quan he
kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky co the rdi
vao kich ban
thii
ba khong mong mud'n.
Tuy nhien, dieu nay khe co the xay
ra: Cac gdi kich clu cua Chfnh phii Hoa
Ky da lam cho khu
viic
san xua't lay lai
din
kha nang tang trifdng, khu
viic
tai

chinh ciing da it nhieu difdc "ciiu vdt"
va viia difdc hai Vien cua Quoc hpi My
difa
ra
dii
thao cai each he tho'ng tai
chinh,
"difa
pho' Wall
vao
khudn kho";
hdn niia, nen kinh te
tif
ban chii nghia
von c6 kha nang
tii
dieu chinh nhat
dinh, cac chu ky khung hoang it keo
dai hdn (kha nang
khic
phuc cad hdn,
nhanh hdn). Ddng thdi, cac nifdc ldn,
cac nhdm nifdc,
nhif
G-20 deu co nhiing
sii
lien ke't de thao gd khd khan
vifdt
qua khiing hoang, de phat trien chd
nen kinh te nifdc minh va cho kinh te

the gidi. Trong dieu kien do, c6 the thay
trifdc, nen kinh te Hoa Ky se lay lai da
phat trien trong thdi gian tdi, nhifng
phat trien manh ye'u
nhif
the
nae
la
van de
cin
xem xet.
f
'
•' • ''
Ve
mat chinh tri vd an ninh, co the
thay, vdi xu, the phat trien ciia Hoa
Ky va chinh sach do'i ngoai ciia Chinh
quyen Obama hien nay, Hoa Ky se
khong thiic
sii
thiic hien chinh sach
doi ngoai hie'u chie'n, gay han vdi cac
nifdc khac tren the gidi trong thdi
gian
trifdc
mit.
Hda Ky se
gitt
difdc

sii
on dinh xa hpi trong
nUdc,
thi hanh
chinh sach quan he quo'c te mem deo,
CO
tinh xay diing.
Nhif
vay, c6 the cho
ring,
the gidi trong thap ky tdi c6 the
ft CO nguyen nhan dan de'n xung dot
bao
liic,
khung bo', chie'n tranh huy
diet, chie'n tranh hat nhan; the gidi se
tap trung vao phat
trien
kinh te, bao
dam on dinh chinh tri, giai quye't cac
van de xa hpi, an sinh My va cac
nifdc ldn se duy tri tinh hinh the gidi
nhif
vay, ft nhat la trong mpt thap ky
trifdc
mit
(chi co
nhif
vay, My, Trung
Quoc va nhieu nifdc khac mdi co the

deu
CO
ldi trifdc nhiing thach thifc cd
the se de'n trong tifdng lai).
Nhif
vay, trien vpng phat trien tich
Clic cho Hoa Ky phai la, tap trung mpt
thdi gian dai chd nhiem vu se' 1 cua
quo'c gia la on dinh va phat trien manh
me nen kinh te,
nhim
lay lai siic manh
va tang cifdng thiic
liic
diing
diu
the
gidi;
he tho'ng chinh tri vdi hai dang
Cpng hda va Dan chu va cac nhdm ldi
ich tap trung vao tang cifdng ldi ich va
siic manh kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh
que'c phdng My; co chien
lifdc
an ninh
va chfnh sach doi ngoai bao dam cho
kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh quo'c phdng
CO
mdi trifdng tich
ciic

de phat trien,
tang cifdng hdp tac da dang vdi cac
nifdc My Latinh, chau Au, Ddng Nam
A, Nam A, cd
liia
chpn vdi cac doi tac
chie'n
lifdc
ci Dong Bac A, nham duy tri
sii
on dinh cua cac khu
viic
nay vi ldi
fch phat trien cua My, khong xung dot
ldi ich cua My, khdng chu trifdng dd'i
dau trdng quan he vdi nhiing
liic
Iifdng
the che khac; tat ca
nhim
muc tieu
trong mpt thdi gian nha't dinh tang
10
SO 06-2010
CHAU
MY
NGAY
NAY
cifdng dUdc siic manh kinh te, chinh tri,
an ninh quoc phong ciia My.

c) Nhdn to' lien quan de'n boi cdnh
quo'c
te.
Boi canh quo'c te phu thupe phan
ldn vao
cac
nhan to' quan he quo'c te
trong viec phan chia ldi ich kinh te,
chinh tri, an ninh quo'c te va cac khu
viic,
cac nifdc ldn.
The gidi, neu c6 the ndi, sau Chien
tranh Lanh, vtfa trai qua cupe khiing
hoang ldn nha't ttf Dai khung hoang
1929-1933,
ciing
nhif
vtfa trai qua thdi
ky cang thang vdi chinh sach chd'ng
khiing bo' cua
ciiu
Tdng thdhg My G.
Bush; dong thdi the gidi ciing chifng
kie'n
sii
phat trien manh me cua cac
nifdc Trung Quec, Brazil, Nga, An Dp,
cua
sii
md rpng chau Au Cac nifdc

Trung Quo'c, Brazil, Nga, An Dp deu
muon CO moi trifdng quo'c te on dinh
de tie'p tuc phat trien hdn niia,
nhim
vifdn
len hdn niia; nhiing nifdc va khu
viic
My, Nhat Ban, Chau Au deu ciing
mue'n co
moi trifdng
nhii
vay de thoat
khoi khiing hoang, phuc hoi va phat
trien dat nifdc.
Cac
nUdc
nho hdn khdng the khong
tan dung moi trifdng nay de phat trien.
Viet Nam lai cang
cin
tan dung moi
trUdng nay de phat trien. Viet Nam
cin
phat huy
te'i
da npi
liic,
tan dung
ifu
the la thanh vien ASEAN, APEC,

WTO
de md rpng quan he kinh te vdi
Hoa Ky va cac nifdc ldn khac.
C6 the ket luan
ring,
vdi kich ban
thif hai trien vpng hdp tac kinh te' vdi
Hoa
Ky
difdc neu tren, cac nhan to'
phat trien cua Viet Nam difdc danh
gia la kha thuan ldi. Viet Nam
cin
thay va tan dung dUdc nhan to' Hoa
Ky va nhan to' boi canh quoc te thuan
ldi cho phat trien trong 15-20 nam tdi.
III.
Dinh
hifdng
Chinh sach giai
phap quan he kinh te
Phat trien hdp tac kinh te vdi Hoa
Ky theo kich ban
thif
hai,
15-20 nam
tdi,
mo'i quan he Viet - My se
difa
lai

nhiing ldi fch gi cho hai nifdc, nhat la
cho Viet Nam, se phu thupe rat nhieu
vao nhiing dieu chinh mdi trong chinh
sach quan he vdi Hoa Ky cua Viet
Nam. Chiing toi cho
ring,
Viet Nam
cin CO
hai hifdng dieu
chinh
chfnh
sach quan trpng: 1/ Chinh sach giai
phap quan he Viet Nam - Hoa Ky, va
2/
Chinh sach giai phap hoan thien
ben trong Viet Nam de tang cifdng
hdp tac kinh te co hieu qua cao vdi
Hoa Ky. Ca hai hifdng nay thupe
tdng
the chinh sach, chie'n lifdc phat trien
kinh te - xa hei cua Viet Nam treng
dai ban. Trong phan nay, chiing toi
chi chii yeu trinh bay hifdng chinh
sach
thtf
nhat va khong trinh bay cac
chfnh sach vi mo,
nhif
chfnh sach thu
hiit diu

tu, chfnh sach thifdng mai
1.
Dinh hudng chung quan he
vdi Hoa Ky.
Co the cho rang, chinh sach quan
he Viet - My gan day rat ccii md, dieu
do da difdc the hien treng Hpi dam
giiia Tong thong G. Bush vdi
Chii
tich
Nguyen Minh Triet tai Washington
D.C, ngay 22/6/2007. Tong thong
G.Bush cho
ring
"Chiing toi muo'n co
quan he to't vdi Viet Nam". Dap lai,
Chu tich
nifclc
Nguyin Minh Triet da
noi:
"Hai dan toe Viet - My deu muo'n
CHAU
MY
NGAY NAY
SO 06-2010
11
hoa binh, doan ke't, va hiiu nghi phai
cung
nim
tay nhau di tdi tifdng lai"

v.i
"Cach tie'p can cua chiing toi la hai
ben se tie'p tuc tang cifdng do'i thoai,
trao ddi de tang cifdng
sii
hieu bie't
lin
nhau. Chiing toi deu rat khong
muon nhiing van de cdn khac biet gay
tac dpng anh hifdng khong tot de'n
mo'i quan he giiia hai dan tpc". Tdng
tho'ng Bush cho
ring,
da co cupe thao
luan "thang
thin
va ndng am" vdi
Chu tich Nguyin Minh Triet.
Nhif
vay, van de quan trgng ddu
tien cho viec md rpng quan he kinh
te
toan dien mpt
each
nang dpng, hieu
qua va ben viing giiia Viet Nam va
Hoa Ky phai la viec thie't lap quan he
hiiu nghi, hieu bie't va tin cay lan
nhau giiia hai nifdc.
Vdn de quan trgng

thii
hai la quan
he Viet - My
cin
difdc thiic hien tren
tat ca cac kenh quan he va cac
linh
viic,
cac dien dan,
nhif
ta't ca cac nifdc
than thien tren the gidi quan he vdi
nhau, bao gdm: 1) Cac kenh quan he
gap gd cap cao giiia cac nha lanh dao
hai nifdc (Chinh phii, Quoc hpi va
nhanh
Tif
phap), cac nhom ldi ich, cac
doanh nghiep, gidi truyen thong, dai
hpc,
quan he giao
luu
nhan dan ; 2)
Cac mo'i quan he trong cac linh
viic
ngoai giao, kinh te, dao tao giao
due,
van hda xa hpi, an ninh chinh tri quan
sii,
khoa hpc cong nghe moi trifdng,

chdng khiing bd ; 3) Thong qua cac
dien dan cua Lien Hiep qudc, cac td
chdc da phifdng nhu APEC, ASEAN,
quan he vdi cac nifdc 16n, tang cUdng
sii
dn dinh d khu
viic
Ddng Nam A va
chau A - Thai Binh Dudng
Vd'n de thti ba: ddi mdi nhan thiic
vl
moi quan he Viet - My.
Vi mat nhdn
thiic:
Nhiing tac dpng
cua chfnh sach doi ngoai cua My va
moi quan he My - Viet co ldi hay c6
hai,
ft hay nhieu de'n Viet Nam va moi
quan he My - Viet phu thuoc rat
nhieu vao nhan thtfc ciia ca hai ben,
nhat la cua Viet Nam. Neu Viet Nam
nhan thifc diing va co chfnh sach hdp
ly doi vdi chfnh sach ddi ngoai ciia
My, thi Viet Nam co the thu difdc
nhieu ldi ich hdn cho
sii-
phat trien
eua dat niidc.
Niidc My hien nay dang dp dung

mgt nhdn thiic mdi theng qua qua
Chien lifdc An ninh qudc
gia®
mdi
(National Security Strategy - May
2010),
My dang thay ddi trong
each
tie'p can va tfng xii trong quan he quoc
te,
sii
dung cac bien phap doi thoai,
ling
nghe, da phifdng, hdp tac giam
cang thang, tang cifdng long tin vdi
cac nifdc va cac khu
viic
Hdn 15 ndm qua Viet Nam dd ddn
dp dung nhifng nhdn thifc mdi de
thie't lap vd phdt trien cdc quan he vdi
My. Viet Nam che
ring,
cai thien
quan he vdi My la met trong nhiing
dieu kien he't siic quan trpng de phat
trien kinh te - xa hpi va nang cao vi
the,
vai tro ciia minh tren triidng quoc
te.
Mac du My dang gap nhieu khd

khan, nhiing My van la ciidng qud'c
kinh te se" mpt the gidi trong nhieu
thap ky niia, va My la ddi tac rat
quan trpng cua Viet Nam.
2.
Ve nhiirng chu
tritdng,
chinh
sdch cua Viet Nam trong quan he
vdi My
12
SO 06-2010
CHAU
MY
NGAY NAY
1) ChU triidng, chinh sdch cua Ddng
vd Nhd niidc Viet Nam la rat ro rang ve
quan he vdi Hoa Ky. Trong budi tie'p Bp
trifdng Bp Thifdng mai Hoa Ky Carlos
M. Gutierrez
cuoi
nam 2009, Thu tifdng
Chfnh
phii
Nguyen Tan Diing da noi:
'Viet Nam mong muon Hoa Ky trd
thanh ban hang
so'
mpt, nha
diu tif

ldn
nhat tai Viet Nam".
2) Theo chiing toi,
cin
cu the boa
hdn nda chu trifdng, chinh sach cua
Viet Nam treng quan he vdi Hoa Ky,
chiing phai trci thanh chfnh tho'ng va
c6 he tho'ng. Chiing toi neu mpt so' y
kien sau: (1) Ve quan diem,
cin
coi
hdp tac vdi My la nhan to' quan trpng
bac nha't, cd ban trong phat trien kinh
te - xa hpi
ciia
Viet Nam, (2) Ve chinh
sach, trong quan he vdi My, phai coi
My la do'i tac chie'n
lUdc
quan trpng
bac nhat cua Viet Nam; nhanh chong
ky ket FTA vdi My; cac quan he khac
cin
dupc nang
tim
tifdng
xifng,
hdp ly
de bao ve ldi ich phat trien cua Viet

Nam (cac quan he an ninh quan
sii,
chinh tri, );
cin
hpc tap kinh nghiem
ciia
cac nifdc trong quan he vdi My (vf
du Trung Quo'c, Dong Nam A, Dong
Bic
A), thiic
hi§n
nguyen
tic
cac ben
thif ba
thay khong bi anh hifdng de'n
ldi ich khi Viet Nam day manh va md
rpng quan he chie'n lifdc vdi My.
Nhiing y kie'n nay difdc cu the hdn
nhif
sau:
Ve quan diem hgp tdc kinh te: Viet
Nam
cin
chu dpng coi quan he vdi Hoa
Ky
nhif
la mpt quan he quan trpng bac
nha't trong quan he kinh te qudc te, va
la quan he quan trpng bac nha't, cd ban

trong phat trien kinh te - xa hpi cua
Viet Nam, ddng thdi ciing coi trpng cac
mo'i quan he vdi cae ben thtf ba khac.
Vi thiic te hien nay My da va se chie'm
ty trpng ldn bac nhat trong cdc yeu td
ddu vdo cua nen kinh te Viet Nam:
Vo'n (vo'n FDI difng hang
diu
d Viet
Nam, vo'n
diu tif
gian tie'p se rat ldn);
Cong nghe, may mdc thie't bi, bi quye't
quan ly, dao tao tri thtfc va
cdc
yeu td
ddu ra: thi trifdng tieu thu hang hda
dtfng hang
diu
ciia Viet Nam.
, -\ :
Vi dinh hiidng chinh sdch: Vdi
quan diem tren,
cin
nang
tim
quan
he,
nhif
da difdc khang dinh qua cac

eupc gap thifdng dfnh Viet - My, len
hdp tac toan dien,
nhim
tang cifdng
ldi ich va nang cad vi the cua Viet
Nam.
Cin
coi md rpng quan he toan
dien vdi My
la'
viec binh thifdng
(nhieu nifdc tren the gidi dang ce
quan he tdan dien vdi My cao hdn Viet
Nam) va My phai la ddi tac chie'n lifdc
quan trpng bac nhat cua Viet Nam.
Ve cdc gidi phdp quan he vdi Hoa
Ky: chiing toi cho
ring,
trong quan he
vdi Hoa Ky, Viet Nam
cin
co:
a) Chinh sdch ngogi giao: thdn thien
vd da dgng, ttf cho co quan he thu dich
trong chien tranh (giiia nhan dan Viet
Nam vdi nhiing
liic
Iifdng ehu ehien
treng chfnh quyen va xa hpi My,
khong phai vdi nhan dan My), chuyen

sang quan he doi tac, cung co ldi.
b) Chinh sdch hdp tdc: todn dien.
Trong Unh
viic
kinh te: nhanh
chdng tien tdi ky ke't FTA vdi My,
diy
manh xua't nhap khau,
diu
tu,
chuyen giao cong nghe mdi, xanh
sach. Vi an ninh qudn
sii,
chinh tri
_CHAUMY
NGAY NAY
SO 06-2010
13
can dupc nang
tim
tifdng xtfng, hdp ly
de bao ve ldi fch phat trien ciia Viet
Nam. Ve cdc
linh viic
khdc: cdn
diidc
md rgng: hdp tac trong bao ve moi
trifdng, phat trien nang Iifdng sach va
phat trien ben viing, xda doi giam
ngheo, dao tao va giao due, y te, van

hoa, the due the thao, du lich, hdp tac
vdi ngUdi Viet d My Vi viec hgc tap
kinh nghiem
cila
cdc nifdc khdc trong
quan he vdi My: Rat nhieu nifdc tren
the gidi cd quan he vdi My va cd rat
nhieu kinh nghiem
cin
nghien
ciiu
hpc tap,
nhif
Trung Quo'c, Nhat Ban,
Han Qudc, Thai Lan, Philippines cd
rat nhieu quan he chat che vdi My.
Neu cd nghien
ciiu,
se thay quan he
cua Viet Nam vdi My chifa difdc bao
nhieu so vdi nhiing nifdc nay, ne'u Viet
Nam md rpng hdn niia quan he vdi
My, ciing chifa the
bing
cae nifdc
tren. Vay ro rang, quan he Viet - My
trong thap ky tdi, du phat trien manh
me hdn niia, ciing khong the anh
hifdng nhieu hdn den cac nifdc tren so
vdi quan he cua cac nifdc do vdi My

anh hifdng den Viet Nam, ne'u ndi den
nhiing anh hifdng tieu
ciic.
c) Nguyen tdc hdp tdc: Trong hdp
tac toan dien
cin
ton trpng nhiing
nguyen
tic
tin cay
lin
nhau, khong ne
tranh, thing
thin
trao ddi cac van de
va bie't nhan
nhifdng
(nhiing van de
chifa c6
sii
nhat tri), ton trpng dpc lap
dan tpc, chu quyen quo'c gia, cdng viec
npi bp, hai ben cung cd ldi va khong
xam hai ldi fch ciia ben thii ba trong
dieu kien toan clu hoa va hpi nhap
quo'c te hien nay.
Cd
the
cho
ring,

quan diem, chinh
sdch,
gidi phdp quan he vdi Hoa Ky
cdn
xde
dinh tren cd sd phdt trien bien
chiing
ciia
mdi quan he de thuc ddy
quan he Viet - My phdt trien vi ldi ich
cua ddn tgc Viet Nam vd ldi ich cita
mdi quan he Viet - My •
Chu thich:
1) Xem: - "U.S Vietnam Economic and Trade
Relations: Issues for the 111"' Congress",
Michael F. Martin, Analyst in Asian Trade
and Finance, Congressional Research
Service 7-5700, R 40755, October 29, 2009.
CRS Report for Congress (Prepared for
Members and Committees of Congress).
- "U.S Vietnam Relations in 2009: Current
Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy",
Mark E. Manyin, Specialist on Asian
Affairs, Congressional Research Service 7-
5700,
R 40208, July 29, 2009. CRS Report
for Congress (Prepared for Members and
Committees of Congress).
2) Xem phat bieu cua
Thtit

trifdng Ngoai giao
Hoa Ky phu trach cac van de Kinh te, nang
lUdng,
nong nghiep tai Dai hoc Ngoai
thUdng
Ha Noi, 12/4/2010, Website DSQ
Hoa Ky tai Viet Nam.
3) Xem them "Quan he hdp tac kinh te Viet
Nam - Hoa Ky" - De tai khoa hoc cap Nha
nu6c,
Ma so
KX.Ol.03/06-10.
4) Xem them "Quan he hdp tac kinh te Viet
Nam - Hoa Ky" - De tai khoa hoc cap Nha
nif6c,
Ma so
KX.01.03/06-10,
phan noi ve
cac kich ban
dii
bao trien vong phat trien
quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa ky.
5) Xem US National Security Strategy, May
2010,
White House, Washington DC,
<www.whitehouse.gov.>.