PHÂN TÍCH SỰ TÁC ĐỘNG CÁC CHỈ SỐ CỦA BỘ BA BẤT KHẢ THI ĐẾN LẠM PHÁT VÀ TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ TẠI VIỆT NAM.PDF

B GIÁOăDCăVẨăẨOăTO
TRNGăI HC KINH T THẨNHăPH H CHệăMINH
oOo




NGăTỐNGăLINH




PHỂNăTệCHăS TÁCăNGăCÁCăCH S CA B BA
BT KH THIăN LMăPHÁTăVẨăTNGăTRNG
KINH T TI VIT NAM


LUNăVNăTHCăSăKINHăT




TP. H CHệăMINHă- NMă2013


B GIÁOăDCăVẨăẨOăTO
TRNGăI HC KINH T THẨNHăPH H CHệăMINH
oOo

NGăTỐNGăLINH



PHỂNăTệCHăS TÁCăNGăCÁCăCH S CA B BA
BT KH THIăN LMăPHÁTăVẨăTNGăTRNG
KINH T TI VIT NAM


ChuyênăngƠnh:ăTƠiăchínhăậ NgơnăHƠng
Mưăs: 60340201


LUNăVNăTHCăSăKINHăT




Ngiăhng dn khoa hc:
TS.ăTHỂNăTH THU THY


TP. H CHệăMINHă- NMă2013



LIăCAMăOAN
 u cc thc
hi n, k th

c tin nn kinh t Vii s ng dn khoa hc c
Thu Th liu, kt qu u s dng trong lu
dn m, n g.


TP. H 9 





i

MC LC
MC LC i
DANH MCăCÁCăT VIT TT v
DANH MCăCÁCăBIUă vi
DANH MCăCÁC BNG vii
DANH MCăCÁCăHỊNHăV viii
LI M U 1
1.ăLỦădoălaăchnăđătƠi 1
2.ăCơuăhiănghiênăcu 2
3.ăMcătiêuănghiênăcu 2
4.ăiătngănghiênăcu 2
5.ăPhngăphápănghiênăcu 3
6.ăDăliuănghiênăcu 3
7.ăKtăcuălunăvn 3
CHNGă1
TNG QUAN V S TÁCăNGăCÁCăCH S CA B BA BT KH THI
N LMăPHÁTăVẨăTNGăTRNG KINH T 4

1.1ăTngăquanăvăcácăchăsăcaăbăbaăbtăkhăthi 4
 4
-m kht b ba bt kh
thi 4
 4
 7
 8
1.2ăTngăquanăvălmăphátăvƠătngătrngăkinhăt 11
ii

 11
 11
 11
1.3ăSătácăđngăcácăchăsăcaăbăbaăbtăkhăthiăđnălmăphátăvƠătngătrngă
kinhăt 13
1.4ăSăcnăthităphiănghiênăcuăsătácăđngăcácăchăsăcaăbăbaăbtăkhăthiă
đnălmăphátăvƠătngătrngăkinhăt. 16
Kt lunăchngă1 20
CHNGă2
PHỂNă TệCHă S TÁCă NGă CÁCă CH S CA B BA BT KH THI
N LMăPHÁTăVẨăTNGăTRNG KINH T TI VIT NAM 21
2.1ăThcătrngălmăphátăvƠătngătrngăkinhătătiăVităNam 21
2.2ă Thcă trngă điuă hƠnhă chínhă sáchă tă giá,ă chínhă sáchă tă doă hóa luơnă
chuynăvnăvƠăchínhăsáchătinătătiăVităNam 25
 25
 31
2.2.2.1 Thc tri vt Nam 31
2.2.2.2 Thc tri vc
 34
  37

2.3ăPhơnătíchăsătácăđngăcácăchăsăcaăbăbaăbtăkhăthiăđnălmăphátăvƠă
tngătrngăkinhătătiăVităNam 40
 40
nh 41
 d liu 41
2.3.1.3 Kt qu kinh s tn ti ca b ba bt kh thi 46
iii


 48
nh 48
2.3.2.2 S ling 49
2.3.2.3 Kt qu ki s ca b ba bt kh n lm
 49
2.3.2.4 Kt qu ki s ca b ba bt kh 
ng kinh t 53
Kt lunăchngă2 57
CHNGă3
GIIăPHÁPăGIAăTNGăTÁCăNGăTệCHăCCăCÁCăCH S CA B BA
BT KH THI NHM KIMă SOÁTă LMă PHÁTă VẨă THÚCă Yă TNGă
TRNG KINH T TI VIT NAM 58
3.1ănhăhngăvƠămcătiêuălmăphátăvƠătngătrngăkinhătătiăVităNam . 58
3.2ăNhómăgiiăphápăđiăviăchínhăsáchătăgiá 59

 60
 62
 62
3.3ăNhómăgiiăphápăđiăviăchínhăsáchăhiănhpătƠiăchính 63

 63

c tin lc theo
u qu  64
3.3.1.2 Kii vp t 
c 65
 66
iv

3.4ăNhómăgiiăphápăđiăviăchínhăsáchătinăt 68
 68

 69
3.4.3 Gia tng  
 70
3.5ăTngăcngădătrăngoiăhi 71
 72
 72
 73
3.6ăăxutămôăhìnhăđiuăhƠnhăbăbaăbtăkhăthiătiăVităNam 74
Kt lunăchngă3 75
KT LUN CHUNG 76


v

DANHăMC CÁCăTăVITăTT
ACI 
ADB 
COMMOD  LDC : n xut kh
CSTK 
CSTT n t

DTNH : D tr ngoi hi
EMG c th ng mi ni
FDI c ti
FED : Cc d tr 
FPI 
GDP : Tng sn phm quc ni
ICOR : H s hiu qu u t
IDC 
IFS : Thc t
IMF : Qu tin t quc t
LDC c n
Non-EMG i th ng mi ni
NHNN c Vit Nam
NHTM i
NHTW 
TTCK : Th ng ch
USD 
VND : Ving
WTO : T chc i th gii
vi

DANH MC CÁCăBIUă

 :  2002 
2012 22
Bi 2.2  CPI ca Vit s qun
2002 - 2012 23
Bi 2.3 ng th  n 2002  2012 27
Bi 2.4 : T   ng t n
2002-2012 28

Bi 2.5 n 2002  2012 33
Bi 2.6 t Nam giai n 2002  2012 34
Bi 2.7 n 2002  2012 35
Bi 2.8 ng GDP, cung ti s  37
Bi 2.9  ng cung ting GDP
ca Vit Nam, Trung Qu 38
Bi 2.10 ch s MI, ERS, KO ti Vin 2002-2012 42
Bi 2.11 : Mi Vin 2002 - 2012 45
Bi 2.12 : Chui s liu GDPG, INF ca Vit Nam 49


vii

DANH MCăCÁCăBNG

Bng 2.1: Nhng thi bin  giao dch t 
n 2002  2012 26
Bng 2.2: Nhng thi t  mc
n 2008-2011 30
Bng 2.3: Kt qu th  ch s MI, ERS, KO, IR ca b ba bt
kh thi ti Vin 2002-2012 43
Bng 2.4: Kt qu ng trng s c s MI, ERS, KO ca b ba
bt kh thi ti Vit Nam 46
Bng 2.5: Tng trng s c s ca b ba bt kh i
Vit Nam 47
Bng 2.6: Kt qu ki s ca b ba bt kh n
li Vit Nam 50
Bng 2.7: Kt qu ki s ca b ba bt kh n
ng kinh t ti Vit Nam 53

viii

DANH MC CÁCăHỊNH V

  ba bt kh thi 05
 : M c mi ni 06
 : Thuy rng c 07
 : 
 17
 u chnh ERS, KO, IR, MI ti Vit Nam 75

1

LIăMăU
1.ăLỦădoăla chnăđ tƠi
t b ba bt kh t kinh t nn tng, ph bin trong
kinh t hc v m. Theo , cc quc gia lun i din trc s la chn cc mc
 v t c cn bng qua li gia nhng li ch kinh t, 
nh t gi hi oi, c ln t 
hi nh. B ba bt kh thi  c ng dng c 
quan trng trong thc ti i nhiu quc gia,
mt quc gia s i khng hong n
ca b ba bt kh m quan tru
thc nghim ca nhi  gii chng minh s tn ti ca b
ba bt kh thi trong thc t, s i c s b ba bt kh thi
theo thu s ng  s ca b ba bt kh n nn kinh
t t qu ca nh
mi quc gia nh   ng la chp cho viu
 ba bt kh thi.
Vi ch m r

h kinh ti vc, nn kinh t Vit Nam hi nh
r tu. Trong bi ct b ba bt kh thi cc
u k ng, v a ch
ch t n t ng x vn quc t 
  c nhng nhn, t c s ng
bn vng ca nn kinh t ch  
 s ca b ba bt kh n lng kinh t ti Vit
Nam ng ca vica b ba bt kh thi n
lng kinh t, nhng ni dung n thi  u
nhng v  Vit Nam nhm ki l
y kinh t tng.

2

2.ăCơuăhiănghiênăcu
- mnh t , t c l
n t i Vit Nam i
 
- B ba bt kh n ti  Vit Nam, hay n
s i trong vic la ch Vit Nam?
- S  s ca b ba bt kh n lng
kinh t ti Vit Nam  
3. Mcătiêuănghiênăcu
 
- 

-  q  theo  3   c  : 
  
Nam.
- ng s bing c s b ba bt kh thi  Vit Nam trong

n 2002-2012, t c s i trong la ch ba
bt kh thi  Vit Nam.
- Kinh s tn ti ca b ba bt kh thi ti Vit Nam.
-  s  s ca b ba bt kh n l
ng kinh t ti Vit Nam.
4.ăiătngănghiênăcu
Lui 3 ma b ba bt
kh  ng  s ca b ba bt kh n lng
kinh t ti Vit Nam.
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5.ăPhngăphápănghiênăcu
- h th  
i 3 ma b ba bt kh thi.
-  ng bing  s b
ca ba bt kh thi ti Vit Nam.
S tn ti ca b ba bt kh thi ti Vic kinh bc
ng m s ca b ba bt kh thi.
S di quy c thc hin kinh
ng  s ca b ba bt kh n lng kinh t.
6. D liuănghiênăcu
Lu dng s liu th n d liu: Tng cc Thng
c d tr , IMF, WB. D liu thu thp s 
th ng phn mn mm Eviews.
7. Kt cu lunăvnă
li m u  kt lun chung, kt cu lugm 
ng quan v s   s ca b ba bt kh n
lng kinh t.
  s ca b ba bt kh n lm
ng kinh t ti Vit Nam.

Gi s ca b ba bt kh
thi nhm ki lng kinh t ti Vit Nam.

4

CHNGă1
TNGăQUANăVăSăTÁCăNGăCÁCăCHăSăCAăBăBAăBTă
KHăTHIăNăLMăPHÁTăVẨăTNGăTRNGăKINHăT
1.1 Tng quan v cácăch s ca b ba bt kh thi
1.1.1ăLỦăthuyt b ba bt kh thi
1.1.1.1ăMôăhìnhăMundell-Fleming, đim khi đuăchoălỦăthuyt b ba bt
kh thi
m ni tin t 
ch  t           -
Fleming, y l kt qu u c
thc ti qu tin t quc t - m
rng ca  IS-LM khi c tnh n tc ng ca cn cn thanh to
u n lc trong vic m r-LM bng cch a yu t nc


S ra i ca m hnh Mundell-Fleming c xem l n lc thnh cng nht
trong vic a yu t nc ngoi vo -LM v l im khi
u cho l thuyt b ba bt kh 
Mundell-Fleming (Ph lc 1) 

.
1.1.1.2ăLỦăthuytăbăbaăbtăkhăthi
- Lý thuyt b ba bt kh thi:
-


phi 
5

 iu  ngha mt quc gia ch c th t c ti
a 2 trong 3 m
Nguyn tc hot 
. Ba c hin cho cc mc tiu: chnh sch tin
t c lp, s n nh ca t gi, v hi nhp ti chnh hon ton. i nghch vi
mi cnh l cc cng c chnh sch ti cc nh. Mu hi nhp ti ch
nh kim sot vc tiu chnh sch tin t c
lp i nghi nh lin minh tin t, mc tiu n nh t gi i nghi
 ni hon ton. Bt k cp mc tiu no cng c th t c bi mt
nh nm gia. Hon ton khng kh thi  t  ba mc tiu.

(Ngun: Frankel (1999))
Hìnhă1.1: Tamăgiácăbăbaăbtăkhăthi.
- Mu hình kim cng:
        

 

, 

6



, 
 
 



  
.

()
Hìnhă1.2:ăMuăhìnhăkimăcng ănhómăcácăncămiăni.
        

  
 

       
7


t
1.1.1.3ăThuytătamăgiácămărngăcaăYigangăvƠăTangxian
 
 p



m


Hìnhă1.3ă- Tam giácămărngăcaăYigangăvƠăTangxian








8




 Ms + Kc + Ev = 1, 
- Trng hp 1: 




 :

- Trng hp 2: K


- Trng hp 3: 
 

 Ms  
 

 

1.1.2 Cácăchăsăcaăbăbaăbtăkhăthi


 
Theo  
c
.
9

- Ch s đc lp tin t (MI – Monetary Independence)
 




MI = 1-
)1(1
)1()i,i(
ji

corr
(1.1)

+ i
i

+ i
j

+ Corr: 


 

.
- Ch s n đnh t giá (ERS – Exchange Rate Stability)
  
 

ERS =
))log((01,0
01,0
rate
exchstdev 
(1.2)

+ exch
rate
: 
+ stdev: 
10

ERS 
- Ch s hi nhp tài chính (KAOPEN – Financial Openness)

 

           
            
    

 
cao.
 , c


KO
(
KO =
GDP
|Outflow FI||Inflow FI| 
(1.3)


+ FI inflow: 
+ FI outflow: 
+ GDP:  .



11

1.2ăTngăquanăvălmăphátăvƠătngătrngăkinhăt
1.2.1ăKháiănimăvălmăphát






1.2.2ăKháiănimăvătngătrngăkinhăt






  (GDP)  
  

1.2.3ăMiăquanăhăgiaălmăphátăvƠătngătrngăkinhăt
              
  

 
, 



 
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 

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 
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 .



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           0) 
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 kinh
 . Do
13


.
1.3ăSătácăđngăcácăchăsăcaăbăbaăbtăkhăthiăđnălmăphátăvƠătngă
trngăkinhăt

         Trn th gii  c nhiu nghin cu v l
thuyt b ba bt kh thi nh cc nghin cu ca Obstfeld & Shambaugh & Taylor
(2005, 2008), Jansen (2008), Bluedorn & Bowdler (2010) Cc nghin cu hu
ht u mang cng mt  ngha, cho thy con ng pht trin ca mi quc gia
u phi tun theo quy lut nh i gia cc bin trong b ba bt kh thi. Tuy
, cc nghin cu n  cp n cch thc lm sao  bit mt quc
gia ang la chn c ch no cng nh nhng u tin ca h trong n lc pht trin
t n

 

ch thc la chn v u tin chnh sch trong b ba bt kh thi ca mt
qu


Ngh 

ng php kinh t lng,  
tin hnh kim nghim thc t  xem x mi s kt hp trong chnh sch b ba
bt kh thi s c tc ng nh th no n hiu qu v m ca nn kinh t, c th l
xem xt mi tng quan gia b ba bt kh thi vi bin ng sn ln
ng lm pht.
 
y
it
= 
0
+ 
1
TLM
it
+ 
2
IR
it
+ 
3
(TLM
it

x IR
it
) + X
it
 + Z
t
+ D
i
 + 
it
(1.4)
14


- y
it
: 

- TLM
it
: vect ca 2 trong 3 nhn t bt k ca b ba bt kh thi l MI, ERS
v KAOPEN.
- IR
it
:  ln ca d tr ngoi hi trn GDP
- TLM
it
x IR
it
: bin tng tc gia b ba bt kh thi v d tr ngoi hi

- X
it
: vect cc bin kim sot kinh t v m bao gm thu nhp tng i
ca mt quc gia so vi M; thu nhp bnh qun trn u ngi;  m ca thng
mi; nhng c sc thng mi (TOT); trung bnh t l u t trn GDP; tc  gia
tng dn s; bin ng trong tng trng cung tin M2; lng tn dng c nhn (%
trn GDP)  o lng mc  pht trin v ti chnh
- Z
t
: vect ca nhng c sc ton cu  thay i trong li sut thc ca
M; st gim sn lng ton cu; nhng c sc trong gi du
- D
i
: tp hp ca cc bin gi c trng nh l bin gi cho cc quc gia
nhp khu du m hoc cho cc khu vc. Cc bin gii thch khng c  ngha
thng k s b loi ra khi thc hin c lng
-  : l cc sai s cng phn phi v c lp.
-
1976, 1977-1981, 1982-1986,1987-1991,1992-1996, 1997-2001, 2002- 


 


 
    