Báo cáo " Tác động của chính sách tự do hóa nhập khẩu đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam: một phân tích theo kênh " doc

TAC
OONG
COA
CHfNH SACH
TL/
DO HOA NHAP
KHAU
O6|
Vdl
TANG
TRUdNG
KINH
T^
6
VIET
NAM: MOT PHAN TICH THEO
KENH
Dinh Thi Hoang
Yen'*
Tom tat
Viet Nam, mdt nen kinh
te
chuyen ddi, da
bit diu
cdng eude cai each kinh te lich
sii
vao nam 1986 va tU dd theo dudi ea hai
hudng phat trien thi trUdng va Nha nUdc
quan ly. Nghien eUu nay tap trung vao cac
chinh sach
tii

do hoa thUdng mai trong
nUde
va qud'c te cua Viet Nam, mdt phan quan
trpng ciia cai each kinh te, bang viec do mpt
chi sd' cho chinh sach tU do hoa nhap khau
va sau dd
sii
dung phan tich kenh de
lUdng
hoa tac ddng
ciia tii
do hoa nhap khau ddi
vdi tang trUdng kinh te cua dat nUde,
Nghien cifu nay ap dung phUdng
phip
nghien ciiu do Wacziarg (2001) de xuat de
phan tich sd'lieu cua Viet Nam trong thdi ky
1986-2006 vdi nhUng
siia
ddi can thiet cho
phii
hdp vdi dac diem kinh te cua Viet Nam.
Ket qua Udc
lUdng bing
hdi quy 3SLS
chi
ra
tac ddng tieh
ciic ciia tii
do hoa nhap khau

ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh te khi da giai thich
dly du thdng tin ve cae kenh lien ket (ehi
tieu cua Chinh
phii,
chit lUdng
kinh te vi
md,
chenh
lech thi trUdng chd den, thUdng
mai ndi dia, FDI, va xuat khau). Nghien
cifu
nay ket luan chi
sd'tu
do
hoi
thUdng mai cif
tang len mdt ddn vi thi tang trUdng kinh te
tang len dUdc 0,304 diem phan tram. Trong
dd, tang nang
liic
cdng nghe cua xuat khau,
dn dinh kinh te vi md, va thUdng mai ndi dia
hieu qua la cac yeu
to
chu yeu,
m.di
yeu td
ehiem khoang tif 25-30% tdng tac ddng
ciia
cae kenh.

1.
Gidi thieu
Cd nhieu tranh luan ve vai trd ciia
thUdng mai ddi vdi phat trien kinh te xoay
quanh van de lam the nao de thUdng mai
cd the lam ddng
lUe
cho tang trudng va
lam the nao de do
lUdng
dUdc ich ldi nay.
Lich sii dudng nhU ung hd cho sU thanh
cdng eiia
tii
do hoa thUdng mai tai Hoa Ky
nhUng
nam 1940 va
ciia
Nhat Ban
nhUng
nam 1960, cung nhU cho nhUng thanh tich
xiic
tien xuat khau cua
nhUng
con Hd
chau A trong nhUng nam 1970-1980, Mae
du nhin chung la cac nha nghien cUu ddng
y rang "thUdng mai la td't chd tang
trUdng", nhUng phan tieh dinh
lUdng

lai
dUa ra rat nhieu ket qua
khic
nhau ve
mdi quan he giUa thUdng mai, ma chinh
xic
hdn la
tii
do hoa thUdng mai va tang
trUdng kinh te,
Cd ba ly do chinh tai sao nhUng ket qua
lai khac nhau. ThU nhat, viec chpn chi sd'
cho tu do hoa thUdng mai cd the la
sd
lieu
ve tinh hinh thiic hien heae la xu hUdng
thUdng mai theo ly thuyet (Leamer 1988).
Tuy nhien,
nhUng
bien phap thUdng mai
anh hudng ldn den ket qua thUdng mai,
dac biet la nhUng bien phap han che
thUdng mai va nhUng hang rao phi thue
quan (Sachs va Warner 1995,
Andriamananjara va Nash 1997),
Thii
hai,
viec
liia
chpn eho bien giai thich eho

tang trUdng kinh te d nhUng qudc gia tien
hanh
tii
hoa hoa thUdng mai la khac
nhau.
Dinh Thi Hoang Yen, Tien si,
Bp
Cong ThUdng.
Stf29(1U12/2009)
OUAN
Lt
KINH
TC
MB
NGHIEN
CUU
•
TRAD
DDI
TAC OONG
CUA
CHINH
SACH
TU DO
H6A
NHAP
KHXU
06\
vdl
TANG

TRL/dNG
KINH
Tf
vi
du
tich
luy va
nang suat (Frankel
va
Remer 1999),
quy md thi
trUdng (Ades
va
Glaeser 1999). Quan trpng
hdn la
nhUng
kenh
tac
ddng ciia chinh
sich
thUdng
mai
vdi tang trUdng
phu
thude
vao
tinh trang
dac
thu
eiia

tUng
qud'c
gia
(Harrison
1996,
Rodriguez
va
Rodrik 1999).
Thii
ba,
phUdng
phip
phan tieh
cin
phai cdng
phu
hdn
de
nghien
ciiu
ti mi mdi
quan
he "hop
den" giiia
tii
do
hoi
thUdng
mai va
tang

trUdng, chii khdng
ehi
ddn
thuin
la
phan
tich tUdng quan hoac
la hdi quy
ciia
mdt
phUdng trinh
duy
nhat.
Y
tUdng
chd
phan
tich thee kenh
da
dUde
de
xuat trong
cac
cdng trinh ciia Salvatore (1983), Fisher
(1993),
Sprout
va
Weaver (1993),
Wacziarg (2001),
va

Jenkins (2004).
PhUdng phap tiep
can
eiia Wacziarg
(2001)
tap
trung
vao
viec kham
pha
nhiing kenh lien quan
giUa
chinh sach
thUdng
mai va
tang trUdng kinh
te se
dUdc
dung
lam nen
tang
cho
nghien ciiu
nay.
Theo each tiep
can nay,
trUdc tien
la xay
diing
mdt

ehi
sd'
tdng
hdp cho dp md
thUdng
mai va xay
diing
mdt md
hinh
de
udc
lUdng
ddng thdi
bing
phUdng phap
binh phUdng
tdi
thieu
3
budc (3SLS).
Can
phai nhan manh rang viec
ap
dung thed
each tiep
can
ciia Wacziarg (2001)
cho sd'
lieu chudi thdi gian
la Uu

viet
hdn
nhUng
each tiep
can sii
dung phUdng phap phan
tich tiing kenh rieng
re de
danh
gia tac
ddng ciia
mdt tap hdp
nhUng
cai
each kinh
te
dan xen
ciia
Viet
Nam tif nam
1986,
ma
trong
dd
tii
do hoa
nhap khau
mdt cai td
can
ban

nhat.
Da
ed rat
nhieu nghien cifu
ve tU do
hoi
thUdng
mai eua
Viet
Nam, dac
biet
la
nghien ciiu
ve qua
trinh
tU do
hoi
nhap
khau
ke tif khi
Viet
Nam
tien hanh
cai
each
kinh
te, chu yeu
dUdi
sii
bao trd

ciia
Ngan hang
The
gidi.
Mae du tat ea cac nha
nghien ciiu
deu ket
luan
la
tii
do hoa
thUdng
mai eua
Viet
Nam la
diing hudng,
van
cdn khd
khan
de
thay
cd
phai
tii
do
hoa thUdng
mai da
thiic
day
tang trUdng.

Trong pham
vi
kien thUe
eiia
chiing
tdi,
ehUa
cd mpt
nghien
ciiu
nao
sif
dung phan
tich kenh
de
dinh
vi
nhiing
md'i
quan
he
giUa
ehinh sach
tii
do hoa
nhap khau
vdi
tang trUdng kinh
te d
Viet

Nam. Mac
dii
da
cd mdt
loat nghien
cifu
sii
dung
md
hinh
can
bing
tdng
the (CGE) eho
tii
do
hoa nhap khau ciia Viet
Nam,
nhin ehung
elc
md
hinh
CGE
khdng
the
phan tieh
nhiing tien
bo
cong nghe
mpt

each
noi
sinh.
R5 rang
la
chinh sach
tU do hoa
nhap
khau khdng
the
thiie
hien dUdc trpn
ven neu
khdng
cd
sii
ket
ndi
vdi
nhUng
ehinh sach
kinh
te vi md
khac,
va mdi
quan
he nay can
phai dUdc dieu
tra de
thiic hien

cd
hieu
qua
qua trinh toan
clu
hoi
dang tiep dien
d
Viet
Nam.
La mdt nen
kinh
te
chuyen
ddi,
nhap
khau ciia Viet
Nam
chiu
sii
quan
ly
eiia
nhieu hang
rao
nhap khau.
Khd
khan nhat
eiia
qui

trinh
tU do
hoi
la dd bd
nhiing quan
ly
nay. Mae
dii
dien quan
ly
nhap khau
cua
Chinh
phu da thu hep lai de Uu
tien nhap
khau
miy
mdc
thiet
bi va
nhflng nguyen
lieu
diu
vao
eIn
thiet
cho san
xuat nhUng
hoi
ddn

thanh
toin
nhap khau
van
tang
len
nhanh chdng
vi sU
cin
thiet phai
diu
tU d
giai doan
diu
eiia phat trien kinh
te. Ket
qua ciia
qua
trinh
tii
do hoa
nhin chung
da
lam giam
mUe
thue trung binh,
lam
tang
tham
hut

thUdng
mai va
thaeh thiic
kha
nang
duy tri
sii
dn
dinh kinh
te
vi
md cua
Chinh phii.
Mue dieh eiia
bai
viet
nay
trUde tien
la md
ta nhflng
dac
diem
eua
ehinh sach
tii
do hoa
ddi
vdi
nhap khau eiia Chinh phii Viet
Nam

va
sau dd
nhan dang
md'i
quan
he
ciia ehinh
sich
nay vdi
nhflng chinh sach
cai td
quan
trpng
khic
cung
ed tac
ddng
den
tang trudng
kinh
te d
Viet
Nam.
2.
Qua
trinh
tii
do hoa
thiTdng
mai va

chi
so
tu
do hoa
nhap khau ciia Viet
Nam
2.1 Chinh sach
tii
do hod
nhap khdu
vd nhiing thay
ddi cua
nhap khdu
Ddi
vdi
kinh
te
Viet
Nam, Dai hdi
Dang
VI
nam
1986 dUdc
coi
nhU
la mpt
moc lich
sif
tren
con

dUdng phat trien hudng
tdi thi
trUdng
vdi
sii
quan
ly
eiia
Nha
nUdc. That
tinh
ed,
nhflng
eai
each kinh
te cua
Viet
QUAN
Lt
KINH
it
Sdi 29(11+12/2009)
TAC
DONG
CUA
CHINH
SACH
TLT
DO
HOA

NHAP
KHAU
D6|
VOI
TANG
TRLfdNG
KINH Tf
NGHIEN
CUU
-
TRAP DPI
[J^
Nam dupe tien hanh ngay trUde
sU sup dd
cua
Bfle
tudng Berlin
nam
1989,
sii
kien
lam
thay
ddi
tinh hinh kinh
te
ehinh
tri
qud'c
te,

da giup Viet Nam
md
rdng mdi quan
he
kinh
te qud'c
te vdi
phUdng cham
"da
dang
hoa da
phUdng
hoa
quan
he
kinh
te
vdi cac
nUde
va
vung lanh
thd
tren nguyen
tac tdn
trpng
lan
nhau,
ddc lap,
tii
chu,

binh dang
va
cung
cd
ldi".
Cau lac bd
Paris
nam
1993
da
giup
ndi
lai GDA cho Viet Nam, khdi xUdng
qua
trinh
binh thudng
hoa vdi cac td
chUc kinh
te tai
chinh qud'c
te
trong nhflng
nam 1990. Vao
diu
nam
2007, Viet
Nam da ky
hiep dinh
thUdng
mai

sdng phUdng (BTA)
vdi
hiu
het
cac
nUde
tren
the
gidi (treng
dd
ehu yeu
la ky
sau
nam
1993). Sd'lUdng
elc
ddi
tac
thUdng
mai
da
tang
tfl 10
nUde
xa hdi ehu
nghia
thanh vien
cua Hdi
ddng TUdng
trd

Kinh
te
len
gin
200
nUde
va
vung lanh
thd. The ky
21
da
danh
dau
sii
hdi
nhap
tap
trung
va
rpng
rai cua
Viet
Nam vdi
kinh
te the
gidi,
bat
diu bing
hiep dinh thUdng
mai

song
phUdng
vdi Hda Ky nam
2000,
hdp tac
kinh
te trong khudn
khd
ASEAN cdng
va gia
nhap WTO
nam
2007.
Tang eUdng
mdi
quan
he
thUdng
mai da
giup Viet
Nam hdp ly hoa va
hien
dai hoa
quan
ly
thUdng
mai
vfla theo
cae quy
dinh

qud'c
te
vfla
dap Ung
tinh hinh phat trien
kinh
te cua dat
nUdc. Song song
vdi
nhflng
van
de nay
sinh trong
qua
trinh
tii
do hoa,
he thd'ng luat phap
va
dinh
che da
dupe
thanh
lap va
lien
tue cai td.
Cach
thfle
quan
ly xuat nhap khau thay

ddi
tU
han che
dinh
lUdng
(ban
ngach,
chi
tieu,
gily
phep
va
doanh nghiep
diu
md'i) den
quan
ly
bang
luat phap minh bach
va
nhflng khuyen
khich theo
cd
che
thi
trUdng. Chinh sach
thUdng
mai
ciia Viet
Nam

dUde
duy tri
nhat
quan
la hd trd
xuat khau ddng thdi thay
the
nhap khau,
trd
giup
vai trd
cd' hflu
eua cae
ddanh nghiep
nha
nUdc. Treng
qua
trinh
chuan
hi hdi
nhap kinh
te the
gidi
(2001-
2006),
mpt
loat
elc
hoat ddng thUdng
mai

dUde
dUa vad
phip
quy
theo
cae quy
dinh
eiia WTO.
Dae
biet
vao nam
2001,
cd che
quan
ly
xuat nhap khau
dai ban da
dUde
ban
hanh
bing
Quyet dinh
sd'
46/2001/QD-TTg
(Quyet dinh 46), thay
the
che dp
quan
ly
siia

ddi hang
nam nhU
trUdc.
Dac
diem
cua
chinh sach thUdng
mai nay
dUdc
tdm tlt
trcng
Phu luc 1, neu len
diin bien
tii
do hoa
vdi ehinh sach
han che
nhap khau hang tieu
dung
de
danh ngudn
tai
chinh
cho
nhap
khau
may
mdc
va
nhien lieu

(lln
lUdt
chiem
ty trpng 30%)
va
60%
kim
ngach nhap khau).
Tang thue
va
quan
ly
bang nhflng bien
phap tUdng
tii
thue quan, quan
ly
so'
lifdng
va
gia nhap khau
tdi
thieu thUdng
dUdc sii
dung
de
bao hp cac
nganh cdng nghiep thay
the
nhap khau, song song

vdi
viec khuyen khich
cac nganh cdng nghiep hUdng
ve
xuat khau.
Luat thue Xuat Nhap khau
cua
Viet
Nam
dUdc ban hanh
lln
diu
tien vao nam 1987,
sau
dd dUdc siia ddi
vai lln
theo hudng md rpng so'
ddng thue
ma He
thd'ng
Hai hoa hoa (HS),
tang sd'ddng thue trong khoang
tU
0-5%
va gia
ban so' ngay thanh toan thue nhap khau
cho
dau
vao cua cac
nganh xuat khau.

TU nam
1996,
Viet
Nam ap
dung
(1)
Thue
Uu
dai
cd
hieu
liic
chung
cho cac
nUdc
ASEAN
(CEPT/AFTA)
va (2)
thue
dUdc
Uu dai
nhit
(MFN)
cho cac
nUde
da ky
BTA
vdi
Viet
Nam

va thue
phd
thdng
(bing
150% mUc
thue
MFN)
cho
nhflng nUdc
cdn lai.
Ben canh
dd,
Viet
Nam
quan
ly
chat
che
ngoai
te
cho
cac
cdng
ty
thUdng
mai bang viec
yeu
cau ket
hdi
va

phan
bd
ngoai
te
cho nhap
khau hang tieu dung. Cho
den
nam 1989, Viet
Nam
cd'
dinh
ty gia
vdi ddng Ruble
cua
Nga
va
Nha nUdc quan
ly mpi
ngudn ngoai
te, sau dd
chuyen sang
he
thd'ng
ty gia tha ndi cd
kiem
soat.
Ty gia
chinh thUc dUdc xac dinh tren
thi
trUdng lien ngan hang vdi bien dp cd

liic
tfl
1%
den 2%.
Vao
thdi diem cuoc khiing hoang
tai
chinh Chau
A nam
1997, Viet
Nam
thit
chat
quan
ly
ngoai
te, dac
biet
la quy
dinh
ddi
vdi
cac cdng
ty
thUdng
mai cd
ngudn
thu
ngoai
te

(vi
du vao nam
1998, 80%
thu
nhap ngoai
te
phai
ket
bd'i vdi Ngan hang Nha nUdc). Mac
dii
Viet Nam
da
din
dan
tii
do hoa
he
thd'ng ngoai
te
sau
cuoc khiing hoang
va
bai bd quy dinh
ve
ket
hdi vao nam
2003,
tham
hut
thifdng

mai
kinh nien
van la mpt
thaeh
thflc
chinh
ddi vdi
quan
ly
ngoai
hdi
ciia
Ngan hang
Nha
nUdc
Viet Nam.
Ket
qua
thiie hien chinh sach
tU do hoa
nhap khau
dUde
bieu
thi
trong Bang
1.
S(f29(1U12/2009)
OUAN
Lt
KINH

it
MB
NGHIEN
ClJfU
-
TRAP
DDI
TAC DONG
COA
CHINH SACH
TLT
DO HOA
NHAP KHAU
£X5I
VOI
TANG
TRL/ONG
KINH
Tf
Bang
1.
Tong
kim
ngach nhap khau,
Sir
phu thuoc
vao
nhap khau
va
thue suat

binh
quan
cua
Viet
Nam
Tdng
kim
ngach nhap khau
(ty
USD)
Sir
phu thuoc
vao
nhap khau
(%)
Suat thue binh quan
don
gian
(%)
Ty
le
doanh
thu
thue
(%
nhap khau)
1986
2.2
8.2
6.8

1992
2.5
25.7
10.7
5.1
1995
8.2
39.3
12.8
13.9
1997
11.6
43.2
13.4
8.3
2000
15.6
50.2
-
5.3
2002
19.7
56.3
15.7
6.6
2006
44.9
73.7
17.4
3.5

Ngudn:
Tinh
toan
ciia
tac gia tir sd
lieu
ciia
Tdng
cue
Thd'ng
ke
va Athukorala.
Tdng
kim
ngach nhap khau tang trung
binh
17.7%/nam,
tfl
khoang
2 ty USD nam
1986
len 45 ty
USD
nam
2006.
Su phu
thupe
vao nhap khau,
ty so'
gifla tdng

kim
ngach
nhap khau/GDP
(M)
tang
len
nhanh chdng
tfl 8,2%
nam
1986
len
50%
nam
2000
va
gin
74%
nam
2006, Trong
luc dd,
thue binh
quan
ddn
gian
da
tang
nhe tfl
10.7%)
nam
1992

len 13.4% nam 1997 va 17,4% nam
2006,
Theo
cac cam ket
vdi
WTO,
bit diu
tfl
nam 2008, Viet
Nam se
phai
giam
thue
nhap khau trung binh
ddn
gian xud'ng
cdn
13,4%
trdng thdi gian
tU 6 den 11 nam. Mac
dfl doanh
thu
thue tang
len, ty le
doanh
thu
thue/tdng
gia tri
nhap khau giam
di tfl sau

nam
1995.
2.2
Chi sd
tii
do hod
nhap khdu
Viec chpn
ra mdt chi so'
thich
hdp de
lupng
hoa
nhflng thay
ddi
trong
qua
trinh
tU
do
hoa
nhap khau
cua
Viet
Nam la rat
quan
trpng.
Rd
rang
la tu do hoa

nhap khau
phu
thude
chu yeu vao
pham
vi
nhflng
han che
bing
thue quan
va
nhflng hang
rao phi
thue
(NTB).
Trong
khi mUc
thue
suit giam di
trong
cac nam qua thi cd
nhieu
lo
ngai ddi
vdi viec
dd bd cac
NTB,
De cd the
tien hanh
phan tich

lUdng
hoa
tic
ddng
cua tU do hoa
nhap khau,
can xay
diing
mdt chi sd tU do
hoa nhap khau
vdi cac
quyen so'
cho
NTBs
va thue nhap
khiu.
Nhu phan phan tich
ve
chinh sach
tU do
hoa nhap khau
cua
Viet
Nam d
phan tren,
giai doan
tU nam
2001
trd
di

danh
dau
bing
sU
ra ddi cua
Quyet dinh
46 la met
giai ddan
thdng thdang
cua
chinh
sich
nhap khau.
Dc
dd,
mdt
bien
gia
bieu
thi
thdi gian
chd
viec
dd
bd NTB
ciia
Viet
Nam (DUM)
bing
1

dupc
gin
eho
giai doan nghien eflu
2001-
2006
va
bing
0 cho
giai doan trUde
dd
(1986-
2000).
MUe
thue nhap khau
la mdt
chi
sd
khac
cho tU do hoa. Tuy
nhien, nhflng thay
ddi
ve
thue suat
la khd so
sanh gifla
cae nam
do
cd sd
thue thay

ddi lam
so'
lUdng
cac
ddng
thue tang len.
Dd
vay,
de
thay
cho
mflc thue,
ty
so'
doanh
thu
thue/tdng
kim
ngach nhap
khau (TARIFF) dupe
sii
dung.
Ty
le phu
thupe
vao
nhap khau
dUde
chpn
la

bien
phu
thude trong
ham hdi quy de tim ra
quyen
sd cho NTB va
TARIFF.
Su
dung
phUdng phap 3SLS,
M
dUde
quy hdi vdi
mflc
thu nhap (INCOME),
ty sd
doanh
thu
thue/tdng
kim
ngach nhap
khiu
(TARIFF),
va
bien
gia cho
tii
do
hoi
nhap khau (DUM) theo

phUdng trinh
1.
Cic
bien cdng
cu
dUdc
sii
dung
la mflc
dp
lien
lac
qud'c
te (vi tri dia ly),
cdng
nghiep
hoa Gao
dpng cdng nghiep), dien
ticli
dat canh
tic sin
cd (dat dai), va
sii
khac biet
gifla
gia
xuat khau
va gia
nhap khau (ToT).
Chi

sd cho
chinh
sich
tfl do hoa
nhap khau
(Mhb) trong phUdng trinh
2 la
tdng
cua
chi
sd
TARIFF
va DUM vdi cac
quyen
sd
tUdng
Ung
la nhflng
he sd
dUde
Udc
lUdng
tfl
phUdng trinh
1.
Theo Udc
lUdng,
53<0, 54>0
de the
hien

Mlib
cang
nhd^
(ve
gia tri
tuyet
dd'i) thi
chinh sach
nhap khau cang
tii
do.
(1)
M =
5,+5,*
INCOME
+
^3 * TARIFF
+
5,
*
DUM
OUAN
Lt
KINH
it
Sif 29 (11 f 12/2009)
TAC OONG
CUA
CHINH
SACH

TU
DO
HOA NHAP
KHAU
06|
vdl
TANG
TRUdNG
KINH Tf .
NGHIEN ClJfU
•
TRAO
DPI
Q^J
Bdng 2.
Ket qua
irdc lirgmg
cua
phuofng
trlnh
1
He
so'
t-stat
He
so'
t-stat
Const.
37.603***
3.783

35.247***
3.359
INCOME
10.618
1.647
12,362***
10,308
TARIFF
-6.615**
-2.455
-7.195***
-5.825
DUM
7,044
0,259
Ghi chu:
*** mirc
y
nghia 1%,
** mire
y
nghia
5%.
Ngudn: Tinh loan
ciia
tac gia.
Bien cdng
cu: vi tri dia ly, lao
ddng cdng
nghiep,

dit
dai, ToT
(2) Mlib
=
S3*
TARIFF
+
^4*
DUM
Ket
qua Udc
lUdng
cua
phUdng trinh
1
dupe trinh
bay
trong Bang
2.
Gia
tri
trung binh tuyet
ddi
ciia chi
sd'
Mlib trong giai doan 2001-2006
la 21.9,
thap
hdn rat
nhieu

mUe 48.3
trong giai
doan 1986-2000. Kiem
tra
quan
he
nhan
qua Granger
xac
nhan rang Mlib, TAR-
IFF,
va DUM la
bien
tao ra M.
Ngoai
ra,
ket
qua
Ude lUdng ciia
phUdng trinh
1
khdng
cd
bien
DUM
cung
dUde
trinh
bay
trong

2
ddng cudi
cua
Bang
2 va
ehflng
td
udc
lUdng
vflng
vdi ket qua am cua
bien
TARIFF.
3.
Cac
kenh
tac
dong ciia chinh sach
nhap khau
doi vdi
tang
trUcfng d
Viet
Nam: Khung phan tich
3.1
Tdm tdt
nhiing kenh
tdc
dpng
vd

phuang phdp
udc
lupng
ciia
Wacziarg
Theo Wacziarg (2001), nhflng kenh lien
he gifla chinh sach thUdng
mai va
tang
trudng kinh
te
dUdc dieu
tra de tim ra
tic
dpng
Idn
nhat ciia ehinh sach thUdng
mai
dd'i
vdi
tang trUdng.
Dac
biet
la tac
ddng
ddi
vdi
tang trUdng kinh
te
dudc

cho la
thdng
qua 3
nhdm chinh.
Mdi
nhdm
lai
dUdc phan
ra
thanh
2
kenh: chinh sach
eiia Chinh
phu (gdm
chat
lUdng
chinh
sach
vi md va quy md
ciia
Chinh
phii),
phan
bd va
phan phdi
(gdm sU bdp meo gia
ca
va yeu
td
tich

luy hay la dau tU ndi dia)
va chuyen giao cdng nghe
(gdm ty le
xult
khau cdng nghiep,
va ty le FDI
tren GDP).
Dp
md
thUdng
mai
tang cudng tang
trUdng thdng
qua mdt tap hdp
chinh sach
kinh
te vi md ly
tudng
vi du md
rdng tien
te,
giam tham
hut
ngan sach,
va
giam
nd
nUdc ngoai trong
dai ban. Ndi mdt
each

khic,
md cUa
thUdng
mai tao
ddng
cd cho
ehinh
phii
cai td
cich
quan
ly
theo hUdng
giam
bdt can
thiep
va
tang cUdng hieu
qua
de tang trUdng.
Mac du quy md cua
chinh
phu
cd the
phinh
ra dac
biet
la khi cd
nhflng
cu sdc ben

ngoai
thi
viec tang them
quy
md cua
chinh
phu
khdng
phii
luc nao
cung
cd ldi cho
tang trUdng
do nd se lam
giam
bdt vai trd cua khu
viic
tU
nhan
va
gay
ra
viec danh thue
qui
mUc.
Do dd, tac
ddng
lan
truyen
ciia

md cUa vdi
tang
trudng thdng
qua
nhdm chinh sach
cua
chinh
phu van
ehUa
rd
rang,
phu
thude
vao
sii
can
bang gifla
tac
ddng tich
ciic
ciia
gdi chinh sach kinh
te
vi md va
nhflng
chi
phi
cho
viec
can

thiep
cua
chinh
phu.
Nhflng
lap
luan
eho
phan
bd va
phan
phd'i dupe
bat
ngudn
tfl ly
thuyet kinh
te
cd dien
bi chi
phdi
bdi ly
thuyet
ve ldi the
so sanh. Theo
dd, cac
qud'c
gia deu cd ldi
khi tham
gia
thUdng

mai va
chuyen
mdn
hoa
vao
nganh
san
xuat
cd
hieu
qua
nhat
cua minh.
Do
sii
canh tranh
bi
gidi
han bdi
quy
md
ciia
thi
trUdng
nen
tii
do hoa
thUdng
mai ed the la mdt cu day eho
diu

tu
ndi
chung
va cho
hang
hoa tU ban ndi
S6'29 (11f
12/2009)
QUAN
Lt
KINH
it
MB
NGHIEN
Cl/l)
-
TRAO DOI
TAC DONG
CUA
CHfNH
SACH
Tl/DO
HOA
NHAP
KHAU
Odl
VOI
TANG
TRI/SNG
KINH

Tf
rieng.
Mdt gia
dinh khac
la gia ca
linh
hoat
de
tii
do hoa
thUdng
mai cd the tao
dieu kien eho sU hdi
tu
gii
ca, nhflng
nUde
ed chinh
sich
md
cfla
thUdng
mai
nhin
chung
se cd
mUe
gia
thap hdn
va gia ea it

hi bdp mee hdn, tflc
la cd
nhflng dieu kien
td't chd tang trudng hdn cae nUdc ddng
ciia.
Ldi
ich
ddng
eua
thUdng
mai
dUde
rut
ra tfl ly thuyet mdi ve tang trUdng ndi sinh
trong
dd
nhan manh
vai trd
quan trpng
ciia ddi mdi cdng nghe
va
nang suat trong
qui
trinh phat trien.
Ldi ich
ddng ciia
thUdng mai ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh
te cd
the dUdc the hien thdng qua viec eai thien
cac yeu td' nang suat tong hdp (TFP),

dac
biet thdng qua tac dpng lan toa ciia FDI
va
nhflng tac ddng ddi mdi eua xuat khau.
Tii
do
hoa
thUdng
mai dat cac nha san
xuat
trong nude vao
vi tri
phai
noi
theo nhflng
cdng nghe ngudn
cua cae
nUdc cdng
nghiep, ching
han
nhU
vi du
thanh cdng
cua viec chuyen
ddi cd cau
xuat khau
tfl
ndng nghiep sang cdng nghiep nang,
cudi
cung

la
sang nhflng hang cdng nghe
cao
ciia cae nUdc Ddng A. FDI thudng
di
vdi
tu
do
hoi
thUdng mai
va
mang vao
dat
nUde
dupe
diu
tu
nhflng hang
tU ban
hien
dai
va viec
phd
bien kien thflc chuyen
mdn,
nhflng yeu td'cd the kich thich tang trUdng
manh hdn
ea
gia
tri

tien bae cua FDI.
Vdi gia dinh
la 6
kenh tren
ed
the thau
tdm tean
bd
tie
dpng
ciia
chinh sach
thUdng mai ddi vdi tang trUdng, Wacziarg
(2001)
da
xay diing mdt md hinh cau true,
va
Ude
lUdng bing
phUdng phap 3SLS.
PhUdng phap nay
dat
dUdc sU thd'ng nhat
bang viec phd'i hdp
gia
dinh
ve
bien
nglu
nhien, nhflng

dac
diem
ciia
bien cdng
cu
trong viec xU
ly
tinh ndi sinh,
va
hieu qua
eua
quy hdi
binh phUdng
td'i
thieu tdng
quat
hel.
Wacziarg (2001)
da
sfl
dung mpt
tap hpp nhieu bien cdng
eu de
didn
ta
sii
phit
trien
eiia
nhflng

ly
thuyet tang tUdng
kinh
te
hien dai, dac biet
la
nhflng yeu
to
quyet dinh eua md hinh khdng gian
va md
hinh kinh
te vi
md.
3.2 Khung phdn tich
Chung
tdi di
theo
y
tudng, phUdng phap
ude
lUdng
va mdt
so' bien trong cdng trinh
cua Wacziarg nhU phln giai thich phia tren
de xac dinh nhflng ye'u to' quyet dinh eho
tie
ddng ciia
tii
do
hoa nhap khau dd'i vdi tang

trUdng
d
Viet
Nam
trong giai doan
1986-
2006.
Tuy nhien, khac vdi Wacziarg (2001),
nghien cflu nay khdng gdp xuat khau trong
ehi
so' dp
md ma
sii
dung
ehi
so' tU
do hoa
nhap khau
de
chi
ro
viec
dd
bd nhflng quan
ly
cua Nha
nUde
ddi
vdi
nhap khau

bing
thue
va
NTBs. Trong khi dd, xuat khau
thi
khdng
hi
chinh phii Viet Nam
han che va
dupe
dUa ra
nhU
mdt
kenh
lan
truyen
tie
ddng
tfl tfl do
hoi
nhap khau
ddi vdi
tang
trUdng kinh te. Ngdai ra, Wacziarg (2001)
sfl
dung dau tU de phan Inh ea
tie
ddng ve mat
quy
md lln

chat
lUdng (bing
viec tang
len
ludng hang hoa tU ban vao qud'c gia
va
bing
xu hudng
ldi
nhuan tang theo
quy md do
chuyen
mdn
hoi).
O dly,
tic
ddng
ve mat
quy md eua
diu
tU
ddi
vdi tang trudng dUdc
do ludng true tiep
bing
bien vd'n tU ban
va
tac ddng ve mat chat
lUdng
cua dau tU

dUde
the hien
bing
TFP trong phUdng trinh tang
trUdng, trong
dd
bien
phu
thude
la td'c dp
tang trudng chfl khdng phai
la
td'c
dp
tang
trUdng theo
diu
ngUdi nhU Wacziarg (2001).
Thay
vao dd,
thUdng
mai npi dia
(DTRA)
dupe them vao nhU
la
mdt bie'n the hien tinh
hieu qua cua phan bd va phan phdi hang hoa
va dich vu, chfl khdng
chi
la

hieu qua trong
viec phan
bd va
phan phd'i
eua
vd'n
tfl ban
nhu trong
ly
thuyet truyen thd'ng. Nhflng
gia dinh nglm
dd la
viec
gia
tang
sfl
tham
gia
cua khu
viic
phi Nha nfldc trong thfldng
mai ndi
dia se
td't hdn eho tang trfldng kinh
te
khi
thUdng
mai
dUde
tii

do hoa d
Viet
Nam.
Ngoai
ra,
md hinh cua Wacziarg (2001)
si
diing
phan tich lien qud'c gia trong khi md hinh
ciia
chung
tdi sfl
dung chudi thdi gian
de
nghien eflu
met
qud'c gia. Do vay,
sii lUa
chon
cua
cac
bie'n, cflng nhfl
la
bie'n
gia can
phai
dupe thay ddi sao cho phu hdp vdi hoan canh
cua kinh
te
Viet Nam.

Vi du
nhfl ehung
tdi
khdng can bie'n
chi
sd dan chu, bie'n gia ve dao,
sii
phan
hoa
ngdn ngfl
dan
tde, hoac bie'n
ve
QUAN Lt KINHTE
Slf29(1U12/2009)
TAC
DONG
CUA CHINH SACH
TU DO HOA
NHAP KHAU D6I VOI TANG TRUONG KINH
Tf
NGHIEN CIA) -
TRAP
DPI
[^H
ddc lap sau chien tranh de dieu chinh
sii
khac
biet cua cac nUdc. Thay vi vay, mpt vai bien
cho dan

so'
va
giio
due vi du nhU tudi thp cua
nam va nfl, ODA, sd'lUdng cac
dii
an FDI, ty le
hpc sinh tren phd thdng trung hpc trong tdng
so
dan, sd'
lUdng
sinh vien, va phln tram cua
dan
so'
sd'ng d thanh thi dUdc sfl dung.
O cap dp tdng quat, ham san xuat cua
mdt nen kinh te ed the dUde bieu dien bang
ham Cobb-Douglas nhU sau:
]-a
Y
=
AK''L'
Trong dd, A the hien trinh dp cdng nghe,
K vd'n vat chat, va L lao ddng.
Liy
vi phan
theo thdi gian chd quan he
Solow
vdi nhflng
chfl cai cd dau cham the hien sfl thay ddi ve

so'
Ifldng
Y A K
^^
r
—
-
—
-\-a
—
-H(1-«)
—
Y A
K
L
Diia
tren dang thflc ddn gian nay, trdng
dd td'c dp tang trfldng dUdc gia dinh chi la
phu thude vao tang trUdng ciia cdng nghe,
vd'n hflu hinh, lao ddng va mdt danh sach
cac bie'n dflde dfla vao vi tri ciia dinh td'
cdng nghe (TFP)de thau tdm nhflng ldi ich
ddng. Phfldng trinh tang trUdng GDP thay
ddi
dUde
the hien trong phUdng trinh 3.
Nhflng chfl cai thUdng dien ta td'c dp tang
trUdng (y, k, va 1), va 6 kenh la chi tieu cua
chinh phii (GOV), chinh sach vi md
(MACRO), meo md gia ca (BMP), phan

phd'i
lUu
thdng trong
nUde
(DTRA), nang
life
ky thuat the hien bdi
sii
cai thien nang
liic
canh tranh xuat khau qud'c te (X) va
chuyen giao cdng nghe (FDI). Sau bie'n
nay gdp phan giai thich sU tien bd cua
TFP khi tu do nhap khau dUdc thiic hien.
Nhflng cdng eu dflde chpn de phan anh td't
nhat nhflng dac diem cua Viet Nam, vi du
lae
ddng theo gidi, viec hpc tap, mat dp
dan sd', ODA va nhflng cu sdc cua chenh
lech gia thfldng mai.
{3)y
=
p,+P2*k
+
p,*l
+
p,*GOV-\-p,*MACRO-\-
+
p^*
BMP

+
/u^*
DTRA
+
/u^*
FDI
+
^,*
X
Bie'n cdng cu: lao ddng nam, lao ddng nfl,
dan
so'15,
dan sd'65, eao dang, mat dp, ODA,
so dfl an FDI, ToT
Sau dd, mdt he thd'ng phfldng trinh cd cau
dupe xay diing de tinh den vai trd eua Mlib
trcng tat ca cac phUdng trinh cho eae bie'n
kenh trong dd tflng bie'n kenh ehinh lai dflde
giai thich bang nhflng bie'n kenh khac.
Nhflng thdng sd'cho tflng bie'n di theo nhflng
tranh luan cua nghien eflu kinh vien ve
mdi
quan he gifla thfldng mai va tang trudng
cflng vdi phan tich ve tfl de
hdi
nhap khau
cua Viet Nam va tinh hinh kinh te vi md.
Phan tich ve 6 kenh dflde trinh bay trong
phln dfldi day.
3.2.1.

Kenh thil nhdt: Quy mo cua
chinh phu, (GOV).
Quy md cua chinh phii
la
mdt chi sd'
quan trpng cho viec can
dii
cua khu
viic
cdng dd'i vdi nen kinh te. Tfl quan diem
cua kinh te tfl do va hoc thuyet ban tay vd
hinh, chinh phu can
dii
cang it thi cang td't
cho nen kinh te. Tuy nhien, vai trd cua
ehinh phu thfldng rat quan trpng d cac
nUde
dang phat trien do viec thieu tram
trpng elc cd sd ha
ting
cd ban tfl dUdng xa,
clu, cang, trUdng hpc, benh vien den he
thd'ng tai chinh va luat phap. Trong khi
mdt sd' nghien eflu phat hien ra quy md
chinh phu
tie
ddng tieu
ciic
den tang
trudng (Edwards 1992, Barro 1989),

nhflng
bing
chUng eua tang trudng kinh
te do xuat khau d cac nUde Chau a
chi
ra
vai trd quan trpng cua ed sd ha
ting
hd trd
cho xuat khau. Vinold va cdng sU (1990)
da liet ke mdt loat nhflng van de kem hieu
qua cua cd sd ha
ting
da han che su dap
flng eua tdng cung dd'i vdi nhflng thay ddi
chinh sach, dac biet la mdt he thd'ng mien
thue va tiep can khdng han che cho
diu
vao nhap khau yeu kem, he thd'ng cang,
cae phfldng tien truyen thdng va giae
thdng khdng dly dii, it thdng tin va nhflng
dieh vu nghien cflu thi trfldng cho cac nha
xult khau. Do vay, van cdn chfla
chae
ring
quy md eua Nha nfldc ldn thi td't cho
tang trfldng kinh te cua Viet Nam.
»r29nui2/2oog)
QUAN
Lt

KINH it
MB
NGHIEN ClAl
-
TRAP
DDI
TAC
DONG
CUA
CHINH
SACH TU DO HOA NHAP
KHAU
D6I VOI TANG TRUONG KINH
Tf
6
Viet
Nam,Chinh
phii ddng vai trd
chu dao trong nen kinh te vdi muc tieu tdi
thfldng la
phit
trien va dn dinh mdi
trUdng kinh doanh theo cae quy
luat
cua
thi trUdng. Chi tieu eiia Chinh phii tang
len trong thdi gian
gin
day, nam 2006
chiem kheang 32% GDP tang so vdi mflc

20%
nam 1986. Mac du giao due, y te, va
cac dich vu xa hdi khac da
dUde
xa hdi hoa,
mdt phln ldn cua chi tieu Chinh phu la
danh cho tieu dung vang lai (ehiem
52,54%
nam 2006, giam so vdi mflc 72,5%
nam 1986). Trung binh giai doan 1986-
2006,
chi tieu vd'n cua Chinh phu chiem
khoang 27% tdng chi.
Diu
tU cua chinh
phu gia cd'dinh 1994 chiem khoang 53,8%
tdng
diu
tu xa hdi, trong dd 52,6% tfl ngan
sach Nha nUdc, 13,6% tfl nd Chinh phu, va
14,6%
tfl SOE va nhflng ngudn khac (chu
yeu la tfl ODA). Mdt
nfla
dau tU eua Chinh
phu trong giai doan 2000-2005 chay vao
phat trien cd sd ha tang bao gdm dien, gas,
cap nUdc, van chuyen, dfl trfl, va thdng
tien lien lac bdi vi Viet Nam
vin

cdn thieu
cd sd ha
ting
ca phln eUng va phln mem
cin
thiet eho viec truyen tac ddng cua
thUdng mai den tang trUdng. Chat
lUdng
eua Chinh phu cd the la yeu td' quan trpng
hdn quy md eua Chinh phu. Tuy nhien,
vin
khdng the do hieu qua nhflng can
thiep
bing
chinh sach cua Chinh phu
bing
mdt chi sd' gdp. Do vay, de
nim bit
dflde tac ddng cua viec chi tieu eua Chinh
phu hay la sfl can thiep cua Chinh phu dd'i
vdi nen kinh te, ty le tdng chi tieu chinh
phu tren GDP dflde chpn la gia tri eho bie'n
GOV. Phfldng trinh chd chi tieu cua ehinh
phu (phUdng trinh 4) dUdc quy dinh de
Mlib hen he vdi chat
lUdng vi
md
(MACRO), va
sii
meo md ciia ty gia

(BMP). Hai bie'n nay dUdc chpn vi chung
cd quan he triic tiep vdi chinh sach tai
khcl
va tinh hinh dn dinh kinh te vi md,
nhiem vu trung tam cua chinh phu Viet
Nam. Dau eua bie'n
Eg dii
kien la am, the
hien viec giam bdt vai trd cua chinh phu
khi dat nUde bUde vao qua trinh tfl do
hoi
manh hdn va sfl gia tang vai trd
ciia
khu
viic
tu nhan. Ben canh dd,
S3
dflde dfl kien
la dUdng va
84
am de phan anh vai trd eua
chat
lUdng
td't hdn eiia chinh sach kinh te
vi md cung nhU tac dpng xau cua gia ca bi
bdp meo dd'i vdi quy md ciia chinh phii.
(4) GOV
=
€,+£,*
Mlib

+
f 3 *
MACRO
+
e,
*
BMP
Bie'n cdng eu: dan so' 15, dan so' 65, mat
dp,
lao ddng cdng nghiep.
3.2.2. Kenh thii hai: Chdt
liipng
chinh
sach vi mo (MACRO)
MACRO la mdt
chi
so' ve viec thiic thi
chinh sach ben canh bie'n GOV de xac
dinh
sii
dn dinh cua chinh sach kinh te vi
md. Mdt trong nhflng bai hoc quy bau tfl
kinh nghiem thanh cdng kinh te cac nfldc
Ddng a la sU duy tri
tinh
dn dinh cua kinh
te vi md, bao gdm mflc tham hut tai khoa
thap,
mflc lam phat thap, va ty gia dn
dinh vfla phai (Vinold va cpng sfl 1990).

Tinh dn dinh ciia kinh te vi md cd xu
hudng tac dpng tich
ciic
den tang trfldng
bing
viec giam nhflng that thfldng cua gia
ca va han che tham hut ngan sach va nd
ehinh phu, nhd dd ma giam
tie
ddng thay
the vai trd tU nhan cua chinh phu va cung
cd'ele cdng ty trong nUdc. Khi tinh dn dinh
cua kinh te vi md, hieu
life
cua chi'nh sach,
va viec thflc thi cac hdp ddng khdng
dflde
duy tri, thi mdt qud'c gia khd cd the tang
trfldng d mflc dp cao trong mpt thdi gian
dn dinh va trong mot mdi trfldng kinh
ddanh md (Panagariya 2004).
Nhiem vu ldn nhat ciia Chinh
phii
Viet
Nam d giai doan ban dau ciia cai each la
dn dinh tinh hinh kinh te vi md. Dat nfldc
ci trong tinh trang dinh dd'n vdi lam phat
phi ma len den 874.7% vao thang 12 nam
1986.
Doi tien nam 1985

bing
viec dinh
gia 10 ddng cu an 1 ddng mdi da lam
tii
do
hoa gia ca trong nfldc nhUng khdng the
kim ham lam phat va phuc hdi ddng cd
diu
tu cho den dau nhflng nam 1990.
Tuy nhien, tham hut ngan sach ciia
Viet Nam, chii yeu la thu tfl san xuat dau
md, ldi nhuan eua
cic
doanh nghiep nha
nfldc va vien trd nfldc ngoai, ludn d trong
QUAN Lt KINH
it
S6
29nu12/2009)
TAC DONG
CCIA
CHINH
SACH TU DO HOA NHAP
KHXU
D<5I
VOI TANG TRUONG KINH
Tf
NGHIEN
CIJHJ
-

TRAO
DO!
[jJ|i|J
tinh trang tham hut. Ket qua la nd Nha
nfldc chdng chat va dflde thanh toan chii
yeu bang viec can
ddi
tien mat trong cac
ngan hang npi dia va vay nd nfldc ngdai.
Do vay, quan ly kinh te vi md cua Viet
Nam tap trung vao cac chinh sach dn dinh
hoa tai khoa va tien te. Dieu nay dflde the
hien thdng qua mdt chi so' gdp gdm ed 3
bie'n vi md: nd nfldc ngoai eua Nha nUde
tren GDP
(zl),
tham hut tai khoa tren
GDP (z2), va chenh lech gifla td'c dp tang
trfldng tien rpng M2 va td'c dp tang trfldng
san Ifldng (z3). Viec xay dflng bie'n
MACRO la dec lap gid'ng nhfl bie'n Mlib,
do dd phfldng trinh (5) khdng
nim
trong
he thd'ng phfldng trinh kenh. Quyen sd'cho
zl den z3 la 1/3 va gia tri ciia chung
nim
trong khoang tfl 1 eho de'n 21 tuy theo thfl
tfl sap xep trong giai doan nghien cflu. Chi
so'

chinh sach kinh te vi md (MACRO)
dflde tinh theo phfldng trinh (5). Gil tri
chi so' cang cao thi the hien ehinh
sich
cang td't.
Chi
sd' MACRO trong giai doan
2001-2006 la 13 cao hdn giai doan trUdc dd
la 10.2.
{5)MACR0 =
y,'
^,+x*.
+
X'
(6)
MACRO =
r],+ri,*Mlib-\-J],*GOV+
r],*BMP
Bien cdng cu: ToT, ODA, lao ddng cdng
nghiep.
PhUdng trinh (6) dien ta quan he gifla
bie'n MACRO va Mlib va 2 bie'n ve ehinh
sach tai khea va tien te, dd la quy md eua
chinh phu (GOV) va chenh lech ty gia tren
thi trfldng chd den (BMP). Dfl kien dau
ciia
ri2>0
do tfl do hoa nhap khau cd tac
dong tich
ciic

den mdi trUdng kinh
te
vi
md. Ngeai ra, dau
dii
kien cua
ri3
va
r|4
la
am, the hien
tic
ddng trai chieu
ciia
tieu
dung ehinh phu qua mflc va sfl meo md
ciia ehinh sach kinh
te vi
md.
3.2.3. Kenh
thdi
ba: Chenh lech thi
trudng chp den (BMP)
Chinh sach ngoai hdi cung la mdt cdng
cu kinh
te
vi md quan trpng, dac biet ddi
vdi cac nen kinh te md cfla, do tac ddng
trflc tiep dd'i vdi nhap khau va xuat khau.
Ty gia cd xu hfldng dflde dinh gia qua mflc

khi 1) cd sfl khdng nhat quan sau sac gifla
tdng clu trong nfldc va chinh sach ty gia
hdi
doli
va 2) khi ehinh phu cd' gang duy
tri mdt ty
gii
d mflc thap de dd'i khing vdi
tam ly khdng dn dinh cua dan chung hoac
la tham hut can can thanh
toin
(Rodriguez va Rodrik 1999).
Viet Nam cd ve nhfl khdng
dip
flng
dieu kien dau tien vi tham hut trong can
can thanh
toin
cd the dflde bu
dip bing
FDI va kieu hdi. Tuy nhien, ddng Viet
Nam da dflde pha
gii din
dan tfl 80
VND/USD nam 1986 len trong khoang
10000-12000 VND/USD trflde nam 1997,
va khoang 14000-16000 thdi gian sau dd.
Sfl khac biet gifla ty gia VND/USD gifla
thi trfldng chinh thflc va thi trfldng chd
den,

d\i6c
gpi la chenh lech ty
gii
(BMP)
va dflde chpn lam mdt chi
sd
cho sfl bdp
meo
gii
ca bdi vi nd phan Inh toan dien va
ngay lap tflc chinh sach quan ly ngoai hdi
eua Viet Nam. Vao nam 1997, ty gia hd'i
doai tren thi trfldng mat gia ngay lap tflc
khi ddng Viet Nam hi pha gia lam cho
BMP dan ra. Ket qua la xult khau va
nhap khau co lai nhanh chdng, nhflng
chi
sd ve chi tieu ehinh phu va kinh te vi md
cflng bi suy giam.
Bie'n BMP dflde xac dinh trdng phfldng
trinh (7), vdi
diu
cua Y2<0, ed nghia la tfl dd
hoa nhap khau se lam ty gia it meo md hdn
nhd cd quan ly kinh te
vi
md hdp ly va thu
hep gia nfldc ngcai va trong nfldc. Chi tieu
chinh phu (GOV) va tdng clu trong nfldc
(DTRA)

dflde
chpn lam bie'n giai thich cho
BMP de phan Inh he thd'ng quan ly ty gia
tha ndi cua ehinh phu va tieu dflng ndi dia
dang phat trien d Viet Nam. Dau ky vpng
eua hai he sd' nay lan
lUdt
la
yS
<0 va y4 >0,
the hien
tie
ddng bat ldi eua tieu dflng chinh
phu qua mflc va tac ddng manh me cua sfl
phit
trien thfldng mai ndi dja
ddi
vdi he
thd'ng ty gia tha ndi ed kiem soat.
(7) BMP =
7,
+
^2
*
Mlib
+
r,*GOV
+
y^*
DTRA

Bie'n cdng cu: mat dp, di hpc, ToT
Sir29(1U12/2009)
QUAN
Lt
KINH
it
MB
NGHIEN OiiU
•
TRAD
DDI
TAC
DONG
CUA
CHINH
SACH
TU DO HOA
NHAP
KHXU
06|
VOI
TANG
TRUSNG
KINH
Tf
3.2.4. Kenh thit
tii:
Thuang
mqi
npi

dia (DTRA)
Bie'n DTRA la bie'n gia
gin
cho kenh
Iflu
thdng va phan phd'i de chi ra quan he
trflc tiep gifla khu vUc dich vu vdi san xuat
va mflc clu cho tieu dung tfl nhan. Lien
quan den TFP, tinh nang ddng va chuyen
nghiep cua cdng tac dieu van se giup lam
tang nang suat cua khu
viic
san xuat.
Trflde
tien, khi thfldng mai dflde
tii
do hoa,
ap
liie
tfl canh tranh nfldc ngoai lam cho
he thd'ng thfldng mai trong nfldc trd nen cd
hieu qua hdn, dd dd nhflng tien bd eua
thfldng mai ndi dia se giup tang nang
suit
cua khu
viic
san xuat sfl dung he thd'ng
dich vu phan phdi ndi dia. ThU hai, khdng
ehi khu vUe san xuat ed the hUdng ldi tfl
he thd'ng phan phd'i cd hieu qua hdn. Tat

ea cae nganh trong nen kinh te sfl dung
diu
ra eua nhflng nganh khac lam dau
vao eua minh cung
dflde
hfldng ldi nhd chi
phi
diu
vao thap hdn nhd ed he thd'ng
phan phdi td't hdn.
Thfldng mai ndi dia cua Viet Nam dflde
thflc hien
bing
he thd'ng tem phieu cho
den tan cud'i nhflng nam 1980. Sau dd he
thd'ng nay dflde thay bang he thd'ng theo
ed che thi trfldng vdi sfl tham gia eua khu
vfle
nfldc ngoai vao nam 1994. Mac du he
thd'ng ban le trong nfldc van cdn manh
mun, ca ve ed sd ha
ting
va quan ly, doanh
sd' ban trong nfldc tang len manh me
trung binh d mflc
17.2%/nam
va chiem
khoang 80% cua tdng tieu dung. Vao nam
2007,
td'c dp tang trfldng cua thfldng mai

ban le ndi dia xep thfl 4 tren the gidi, sau
an Dp, Nga, va Trung Qud'c (Dinh 2007).
Vdi td'c dp tang trfldng kinh te nhanh va
dan sd' tre, thfldng mai ban le ndi dia cua
Viet Nam (DTRA)
chic chin
la mdt kenh
ndi tfl do
hoi
nhap khau vdi san xuat va
tieu dflng trong nfldc.
Ty le thfldng mai ndi dia hang hoa va
dich vu ngoai qud'c doanh da dflde loai bd
yeu td' lam
phit
tren GDP dUdc dung lam
bie'n thay the cho DTRA. Ty so' nay the
hien
sii
tham gia tfl do hdn cua khu vfle tfl
nhan va
nUdc
ngoai vao thUdng mai ndi
dia, thay cho he thd'ng tem phieu khi Nha
nUde
hoan toan kiem soat viec
lUu
thdng
phan phd'i hang hoa va dich vu. PhUdng
trinh (8) Udc

lUdng
DTRA vdi bie'n giai
thich la Mlib, xua't khau (X), dai dien cho
quan he gifla thfldng mai trong nfldc va
qud'c te.
Dii
kien tfl do hoa nhap khau va
xuat khau se kich thich thfldng mai ban
le ndi dia, tflc la
?^2>0
va
^3>0.
(8) DTRA
=
\+l,*Mlib
+
X,*BMP
+
X,*X
Bie'n cdng cu: Thanh thi, ToT, mat dp
3.2.5.
Kenh thii nam: Dau tU triic tiep
nudc ngodi (FDI)
Dd'i vdi elc nfldc dang phat trien, FDI la
ngudn chuyen giao cdng nghe va nang cao
nang
suit
quan trpng. Nhflng phan doan
san xuat qud'c te thfldng dflde thflc hien
bdi cac cdng ty FDI. Nhd cd

tie
ddng ngoai
bien tich
ciic
ve hpc hdi lan nhau, elc nfldc
dang phat trien cd the tien len mflc tang
trfldng cao hdn dfldi che dp thfldng mai tfl
do hdn la che dp tfl cung tfl cap (Goh va
Wan 2005). Bie'n FDI dflde sfl dung d day
khdng phai de giai thich vd'n
diu
tU tang
len ma la tac dpng ngoai vi tich
ciic
cua
FDI nhfl tien bp cdng nghe, tac dpng hpc
hdi cua cac doanh nghiep trong nfldc, hoac
la dao tao lao dpng.
Hau het nhflng nghien cflu ve khu vfle
FDI d Viet Nam da ehflng td quan he tieh
ciic
gifla FDI va tfl do
hoi
thfldng mai, va
FDI va tang trfldng, dac biet la ve mat
ddng vd'n dd vao eho dau tfl va lan truyen
cdng nghe theo nganh dpc. Luat Dau tfl
trflc tiep nfldc ngoai ciia Viet Nam
dflde
ban hanh vao nam 1987 va sau dd lien tue

dflde siia ddi theo hfldng flu tien cho khu
vfle FDI. Vao thing 11/2007, 68,55% FDI
thflc hien danh cho khu vfle cdng nghiep
va xay dflng, 6,93% cho ndng nghiep, lam
nghiep, va ngfl nghiep, 24,52% cho khu
vUe dich vu. Khi nen kinh te cdn ddng
ciia,
khu vUe nha nfldc trong san xuat va
thfldng mai van cdn
la
chii dao nhflng san
lUdng
cdng nghiep va gia tri xuat khau
3 QUAN Lt KINH
TC
Sd
29
(11+12/2009)
TAC DONG
CUA
CHINH
SACH
TUDO
HOA
NHAP
KHAU
D6|
VOI
TANG
TRUdNG KINH

Tf
NGHIEN cuu
-
TRAO
DOI
ciia khu
viic
FDI (bao gdm ca dau khi)
tang len nhanh ehdng (tfl 0% vao nam
1988 len 39% tdng san Ifldng cdng nghiep
va 57.2% tdng xuat khau vao nam 2006)
va tfl nam 2003 da vfldt ea khu
vfle
nha
nfldc.
Tuy nhien, tac ddng thflc sfl cua
FDI, dac biet la tac ddng lan toa van cdn
la dieu chfla dflde giai dap do sfl thoii lui
cua FDI sau khung hoang tai chinh Chau
A, va md'i quan he cua FDI dd'i vdi nen
kinh te'Viet Nam van chfla chat che trong
thdi gian nay.
Bien FDI lay gia tri
bing
phln ddng
gdp san Ifldng cdng nghiep eua khu vfle
FDI trong tdng san Ifldng cdng nghiep d
gia ed' dinh (bao gdm ea
diu
khi). Vi tri eua

FDI trong nen kinh te Viet Nam
d\i6c
khao sat d mflc vi md
bing
phfldng trinh
(9) xac dinh nhflng dinh to' cua ty trpng
san Ifldng cdng nghiep cua FDI va meo md
tren thi trfldng chd den (BMP) de phat
hien ra
mdi
lien he tfldng tac gifla
diu
tfl
nfldc ngoai va chinh
sich
ty gia. De kiem
tra tac ddng bd trd eua tfl do hda thUdng
mai dd'i vdi FDI,
dii
kien
02>O
va
93<0.
(9)
FDI =
e,+e2*Mlib+
e,*BMP
Bie'n cdng cu: Thanh thi, ODA, cao
ding,
ToT

3.2.6. Kenh thil sdu: Xuat khdu (X)
Kenh cud'i cung dUde dieu tra de tim ra
tinh canh tranh qud'c te
bing
nang
lUc
cdng nghe gia tang cua xuat khau. Gid'ng
nhfl FDI,
tie
ddng hpc hdi ciia xuat khau
thfldng b trong khu vfle cdng nghiep che'
tao.
So' lieu can cd cho xuat khau hang
cdng nghiep la ty trpng cdng nghiep nang
va cdng nghiep nhe tren tdng kim ngach
xuat khau. Tuy nhien, thfldng thi sd' lieu
cho eho xuat khau khdng phan loai rd
xuat khau khoang san va hang gia cdng
xuat khau. Cae nhdm hang xuat khau
chinh eua Viet nam la san pham cdng
nghiep nang va khoing san (trung binh
chiem 27,94% trong thdi gian 1986-2007),
cdng nghiep nhe va thii cdng my nghe
(32,27%),
va ndng lam nghiep (39,79%).
Khi tdng gia tri xult khau vfldt qua
mflc 40 ty USD nam 2006 tfl mflc 800
trieu USD nam 1986, xuat khau la mdt
clu ndi khdng the bd qua gifla tU do hoa
nhap khau va tang trudng kinh te d Viet

Nam. De danh gia tien bd nang
liie
cdng
nghe, bie'n gia eho xuat khau se la ty le
hang xuat khau cdng nghiep trong tdng
kim ngach xuat khau. Tuy nhien, do van
de thieu sd' lieu thd'ng ke, ty trpng xult
khau cdng nghiep nang va khoang san
tren tdng kim ngach xult khau se
dUde
sfl
dung cho bie'n xuat khau (X). Trong
phUdng trinh (10), X dUdc gia dinh la bi
anh hudng bdi tU do hoa nhap khau (Mlib)
va quan ly ngoai hdi (BMP). Ky vpng
diu
la
(B2>0
va
a)3<0
do nhap khau tU do hdn
cd the chuyen giao ham
lUdng
cdng nghe
eho xuat khau va ldi nhuan chenh lech ty
gia cd the lam han che xuat khau
(10)
X = (o^+co2*Mlib + (o^BMP
Bie'n cdng cu: ToT,
dit

dai, Thanh thi,
eao dang
Tdm lai, khung phan tieh cho he thd'ng
kenh lan truyen
tie
ddng cua
tii
do
hoi
thUdng mai den tang trUdng kinh te dUde
md ta trong hinh (1). Nhflng bien chinh
cua md hinh la tfl do hoa nhap khau
(Mlib),
td'c dp tang trfldng (y), va ba nhdm
cho 6 kenh. Hfldng cac mui ten
chi
tac
ddng cua kenh. Lao ddng (1) va vd'n (k) la
nhflng bie'n gdc cua ham tang trfldng.
Nhflng bie'n cdng cu dflde viet treng dau
ngoac ddn va
nim
ben dfldi nhflng bien
chinh, trong khi nhflng bie'n trong ham
flde Ifldng ngoai he thd'ng de xay dflng nen
chi sd' thi trong ngoac va
nim
ben phai.
{Cbn nUa).
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO

Tieng Viet
1
Dinh Thi My Loan (2007), "Thi trUdng ban le
Viet
Nam
thcfi
ky hau
gia
nhap WTO va van
de kiem soat canh tranh trong linh
vi(c
nay",
»(29(1U12/200g)
QUAN
Lt
KINH
it
MB
NGHIEN
cuu
-
TRAO DOI
TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TU DO HOA
NHAP
KHAU
001 vOl
TANG
TRUONG KINH
Tf
Tap chi Thong tin vd

Dii
bdo Kinh te xd hdi,
So
22, tra 42-45.
2
Quyet dinh
46/2001/QD-TTg
cua Thu
tUdng
Chinh
phii,
ngay 4 thang 4 nam 2001, Quan ly ddi vdi.
hdng hoa xudt nhap khdu giai doan
2001-2005.
Tieng Anh
m Andes Alberto F, and Gleaser Edward (1999),
"Evidence on Growth, Increasing Returns,
and the Extent of Market", The Quarterly
Journal of Economics, Vol. 1999: 1025-1945.
• Andriamananjara Shuby and Nash John
(1997),
"Have Trade Policy Reforms Led to
Greater Openness in Developing Countries:
Evidence from Readily Available Trade
Data", World Bank Research Working Paper,
Vol 1730.
• Athukorala Prema-chandra (2006), "Trade
Policy Reforms and the Structure of
Protection in Vietnam", World Economy, Vol.
29(2):

161-187.
• Barro Robert J, (1989), "Economic Growth in
a Cross Section of Countries", The Quarterly
Journal of Economics, Vol. 106 (2): 407-
443.enges.
• David Dollar (2002), "Reform, Growth, and
Poverty in Vietnam", Policy Research
Working Paper, WPS 2837, The World Bank,
Development Research Group,
Macroeconomics and Growth.
• Edwards Sebastian (1992), "Trade
Orientation, Distortions and Growth in
Developing Countries", Journal of
Development Economics, Vol. 39: 31-57.
• Frankel Jeffrey A. and Romer David (1999),
"Does Trade Cause Growth?", The American
Economic Review. Vol. Vol. 89 (3): 379-399.
• Goh Ai-Ting and Wan Henry Y (2005),
"Fragmentation, Engel's Law and Learning",
Review of International Economics. Vol. 13
(3):
518-528.
• Harrison Ann (1996), "Openness and Growth:
A Time-Series, Cross-Country Analysis for
Developing Countries", Journal of
Development Economics. Vol. 48: 419-447,
Jenkins Rhys (2004), "Globalization,
Production, Employment and Poverty:
Debates and Evidence", Journal of
International Development. Vol. 16: 1-12.

Le Quoc Hoi and Richard Pomfret (2008),
"Technology Spillovers from Foreign Direct
Investment in Vietnam: Horizontal or
Vertical Spillover?", Working Paper Series,
Vol. 085, Vietnam Development Forum.
Le Viet Anh (2007), Foreign Direct
Investment, Productivity, and Economic
Growth: A Case Study of Vietnam
1986-2004,
PhD Dissertation, Nagoya University.
Leamer Edward E (1988), Measures of
Openness, Trade Policy Issues and Empirical
Analysis, National Bureau of Economic
Research, University of Chicago Press.
Nguyen Tien Dung and Ezaki Mitsuo (2007),
Regional Economic Integration and the
Impacts on Growth, Poverty and Income
Distribution, The Case of Vietnam. Forum of
International Development Studies. Vol (33),
Graduate School of Internation Development,
Nagoya University.
Panagariya Arvind (2004), "Miracles and
Debacles: In Defence of Trade Openness", The
World Economy, Vol, 27 (8): 1149-1171,
Pham Thi Lan Huong (2003), 'The Impacts of
Vietnam's Accession to the WTO on Income
Distribution Using a General Equilibrium
Framework", Asia Pacific School of
Economics and Government Working Papers,
The Australian National University,

Policy Research Working Paper, WPS3076,
The World Bank, East Asia and Pacific
Region, Povery Reduction and Economic
Sector Unit,
Plummer Michael, G (1995), "An Analytical
Survey of Vietnam's External Policy
Challenges", Journal of Aisan Economics,
Vol, 6 (3): 327-349,
OUAN Lt KINH
it
Stf 29(1^12/2009)
TAC DONG
CUA
CHlNH
SACH
TU
DO
HOA
NHAP
KHAU
D6I
VOI
TANG
TRUONG KINH
Tf
NGHIEN CUU
•
TRAO DOI
|'j^,'|;]
• Rodriguez Francisco and Rodrik Dani (1999), Activity, The Brookings Institution. Vol. 1995

"Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A
(i);
i-ns.
Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National
T^
. ,
r-
-J " Aj-DCDTir
I
D
c •
THQi " Salvatorc
Dommck (1983), "A
Simultaneous
Evidence ,NBER Working Paper Series 7081,
National Bureau of Economic Research. Equations Model of Trade and Development
. Sachs Jeferey J, and Warner Andrew (1995),
^^*^
Dynamic Policy Simulations",
Economic Reform and Process of Global International Review for Social Science, Vol
Integration, Brookings Papers on Economic 36 (1): 66-90.
Stf29(1U12/2009) QUAN Lt KINH
TC