CDS và khủng hoảng tài chính

1
Mục lục
I. 
1. 
2.  
II. !"#!$
1. !%&
2. '()*+,,"#!$ /' 0
III. 1!2"%(34
1. 1!235)"#!$ 06*7$8
(89: !$;%(
2. 1!2"%(<&==
>!%("#?
1. hp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap?
?@@AAA4BA4(@CDEEFE.FGD8'BH'HBI'8A4(
2. hp://phochungkhoan.vn/home.php
3. hp://www.srtc.org.vn
2
Chủ đề: CDS và khủng hoảng tài chính
5&J( 0'<KJ( L6%&!$',!MN<)+O!
"#:5P4Q!RS<T+P6,%U
!<"!K!<V#W:: <:74XY
:=<TPC!<V<+,Z[:+,8,\
)"#!$!4M)*+,8,\<:7=,$<:
!BHBIA8]^'()U"8<:7:) <(
<P4!_3'!`a&bcHW<)"#!$ 04
$U"8!<THW<8Z8a<<)H:=
d6,(_"#!$Ce!"fB8Z88a!
,!!`C#(+9: !$MN4g%(U"
8!6C![3()8&7<&=$8#!(89: 
!$P4

3. Tổng quan về CDS
1. Lý thuyết chung về CDS
1.1. Khái niệm
h%(?]BHBIA^7<><$Ha_<:72!
7<><i7$Ha!()U"86C<K!()
HC#(H!>H:=U()"#7<:7U"P4
C#c&:()7<>C#(68U<:7Z%&:
()Q7<><]8A^`: 4QC+(8j<H_
?: (#: CH_$!J(8& 7<>k_
: C#: (H_C#(4
1.2. Cách thức giao dịch.
: (#: C()"#$]2!8BH^<<:7C#(
i7$Ha6\#"()C+UCO!: 7i74l$: P+
%mj=%\$%(C+<k!<:7$B<(OC#]R%
KJ(^!J(+(n<O9(%7<>4$()`!
E <(OC#6U!U(n"#o.%S(%$C#(i
7!E 4 S@J(4l$<6+\&+aB,(!<K:!B
<)H%4+6\$%(C+<]m
C+!^!c(U$C#(!!:74h"#J
8#H%8j!($J24l$<:7Bdo
J(6-J(6GJ(!o.J(4:OU=(n(U 8jP(U$C#(8j
"]&:(UT8c"p,!^4l`c!$G
J(4
3
: C#: (H_C#(4_!8jCq.i7
"`\#!Cq9"#m(%<:7C#(C+
<@!!C9i74"#@C9\cC+
C#<m:=()"#c4++9: MN6P()r!
C+C<:7\sss]c^8j<:7(t"`##<m"NC
<K!+KJ<m28<PC9(c]$J^49: !$

MN6suv!`C#(=c=!t(+<:7\sss41YV
suvP()7c=8=!!""`##"#<m
2(C4;(!suv<TY!!C#T=c+
9: !
O<>UH9
M)$Ha<O#Ht?
ss(C#(o.%<`5,!<&=8&H`1!
(!s<* GJ(4s8j##T8c]8BH^!.6Gw(nJ(6U
o.%x.6GwyG.<`(nJ(4GJ("`Pc<\d68&
s##,!!-G.<`4
+8-J("5!"7<>6`18#!8&72!Y
!(=c)6,!8j##so.%<`48&s#,
4
!J(!o <`6:"`P8ZC#T,!s
<T(cr8&U"H1!4
<:7(J(oLL/CY,!zlM8B41<K6K3!
()7<>C#(*!8#($:HKHK C:=!Y
!)ON<K:5]BHBIH^4N!"`*()
!()`6:Cq`!<m"P"J!$!Pj8j
8=(8#6+"7<>C#(7=c=,!4`!
8#VN5J#<V(6:"`(`:7<:7
<"P"JN5nm4:V!5()UC#(
P{<TC!()_<C4!!$c<C!<KO!)
!&eP&99: 4
2. Nhìn lại quá trình phát triển của CDS trong thời gian qua
2.1 Quan niệm
Q7<><$Ha<T>$c5<K*J(oLL.6C<K<:7Z%
CY1"B88*J(oLLo4zlM|<:7C<)T=%
*7<><$Ha%<!J(oLL}4P(): 7:86zl
M<T(Y)()H_$Ha~}60•<`€\\6!<T#<&(m=(&<BH2

GRS%5<&=8Z&€\\;HB•!HK44M)P(+U
zlMC$Ha5(U$Ha,!,‚
!l<r#(HZ*6zlM<T<:7+K<c=8Z&€\\6H
<P(=P#%C#,<&+(4
J(oLL/6zlM<T()8#d(<)<:72!1uƒ„]1HuHB\
B•BH8„IIB^(!<:78…Ha<!(8C#,<&,!4†
<(1uƒ„!P<:78…HaU"<‡$Ha!K
(!!<K:‡ˆ<<K:6K!<K:"#J€1ƒ<c
V}60RS$Hae()341uƒ„!$Ha<K+(!8!<:72!
{a7c7]„^4
g3V!<!()*+,)"#
|6O#K<K(c8ZcHW<P!P"#J,
<4J( 67<><$Ha<TY!K=<:7(t<9CY
#U"MN!‰CU"]€^!‰CvH9!P:O
]Š^4XVQ%<P!P:OJ( [r*"jY€6
<mC%P"`#!:OU"!:V!"`)(
#€!Š4
5
2.2 Phát triển thị trường
3<K6,!(:+9: 6:<:78…Ha<J
m+<<)(4,![<TP()O)<
#P<:7&<%4;!1J(oLL069: !K<&=:=$
"#F •S6=zlM()(("#G.R<>4
9K(!,!<:7:Y<TPC9\P(_"!!!
#!8#!N<K:<TcO)"H7<><
$Ha4XJ( 6!<K::!<KO6U"`#!,!:
BHB86&99: 4,!&Qhp<:78…Ha<
$Ha!<KJ(oLLE4J(<P6;J_h(8%HZ<(`9
: !"#!aR<`4J(86!&J( 68&_7!O-
•<`4

MmHe!<KO33<d8ZJ:YBc8&,6&"[P
()K"`‡49: "`(Y)6<J(oLLL6"us+
dP!%:=HW7<><$Ha4!6"#!$
,‹J(oLL/<T3<d9: 9: (=4!6J(
}6•8&H9<:7Cr<K+()(`=!P4
g(`9: $HaBIA8Jc<`(nJ(5F6/RS
J( F4$<&J( /69: P9H{E R<`4&
H{#(J( 0!"#ŒH(a<K:fŒ*nZ]
7<>HZ_Ce<r^6!<&J( 08&H:H{<T#(F0w<
F0E R<`4
J:YCe!(!"!+(<<K$4;!!oG
LJ( G6 BA•"ŠBH<T%Vo},!<J_(4Q!R<`
<:7H9!!:>8O:*<OK84X!
c<#+(26:<&!c…
!!$4$;:O&sC!‡*(&:OZ:V4
Thị trường như năm 2008 (chi tiết phần dưới)
Qhpr(*oG6GR<`MN+9: !
&J( 0-4r(!\9!8#
:=$68r(!<‡9!8#H:=d4
&B!Œ•ŒcJ(<":Y!4
6
4. Diễn biến ]>? ?@@AAA4BA4(@CDEEFE.FGD8'BH'HBI'
8A4(^
• l
9: JBc8&,8&V"R<K+"R-o4Q7
<><$Ha<:7H9)TO6HW<8Z"`rr=O
94!6"5"#C+<:7<K:"#C<K69: #<&
(m=()(U<)=<KO4P=o.<oEC+<:7(!%"H
()Hc4
• h#

J( /6()(U+%"# R<`C%!c39
: 6:O%<K:]~-GR<>^!9: ]~}GR<>^4;!
&J(6()<KOŒCCPŒE R~<T<:7!+9: 4
!6)"#cH:=d\#e()J(6"<9
,!!UO!8Z()8Z=O4J( 06
9: <T#(\&F0 R~4B(1B8!suvi76!V#
"#<K:=27<><$Ha4
• ")"#
)"#!$J( 069: 6=(&+"!8Z(
CP6<:7\B(!()*(!()H%,6Ž:
,!B(1B86P,()8Z8a<!$=O4%&
9: 6"$:=!<96<m()(&<BH2Hc8Z
<9%&!$4J( o.6"`:O(,(
:"8|B]^<T<>cO#P
V!<J"H9<$Ha(m<94
1. CDS và khủng hoảng tài chính
1. CDS và rủi ro hệ thống
:3<TC<:7(J(oLL/CY1BzB88M8B86o!
"2|!<C!H((HB8,!zlM4< _
ˆ:("#•(U<)H99: 8=4:=
"Pa"#7H:=dYMN<TcCYMN6: MNC
:["Cb`a!!6•CHsuv<UC#(
(2: U+,(<K:6"`#i748Z8a<suv6=!$(=
7
<!8,(\ˆ(:=q9!VqP!`aPc2
`a84
1<K6K3!()7<>C#(*!8#($4s
r(():7=6`16!()!!<P`1C9
8#8&U"!8j!ca6"<Ps8j<,!(6U!s
"=()7<>6B<Ps8j#()"#($<9"p6!<

C#T98&U"<Ps4`18# 7<>P
%Z6,!8j%s!7<>c(HU4
KHK6C:=!Y!)ON<K:5]BHBIH^4
N!"`*()!`16:Cq1<m"P"J
!$!Pj8j8=(8#6+"7<>C#(7=c=,
!418#VN5J#<V(6:"`(1:7
<:7<"P"JN5nm4:V!5()U
C#(P{<TC!()_<C4!!$c<C!<KO
!)!&eP&99: 4
,!<K:!,!`: !: (=c9: 6<
_)""#6<#(C#%8&!&444,!(
"#}.w:7(+=%4<P<`U"6N<K
:]BHBIH(U-6(oGw:7^6H%6#$(
<C#)H(aH%(4
l$: C6`C#(,2|,2=:suv<P_`e
2: 2$!: C9: 4Q2!: 
8#d(6$\B(•%C#(C+6<K:!
<,<_54:7!8#d(9: c34
;$Ha:(G`6F&-\c!o6C8#d(6•K
oG`!i7: (8jVo 6-G`i7: (8j
V 4P:V:<UY$!!6$•%i78#
d(!6B((C+<PT|W<#(C#!!"PcJ(!K
<9H%,$U"4
hMN""$+He6!!<6: : <<+He65(\B6
(!<<26"H<He4h"<96*
8
: 8=(()[#76"`P7\c4;V`C#
(:suvaU""#H:=d6C!)7>
CC#("#7<P4
;=o~!8#VQsv]$Ha^6P<Fo: C‡o~(C#(i7!8#

<P4Qsv!(J&suv•><($C#(4:Qsvi7V
•%:7!oJo 6suv##o xFoyFo ~o~!8#Qsv4$o`o•<`
<,suv#•1)#C!8#6c#4;!#+…
J!<To<_$…!"MN[:(Z!h{%!
$S4
2. CDS-một trong những nguyên nhân gây khủng hoảng tài chính 2007-2008
J( 6&)MN<T(()8K("`U"`<V
GEE.6B<P7<>C#(7e()*8#d(!$8"
"`98Z(8!:=4VGEE.< 58ZV<)!V<!!
$=6q(32#(!!"H*8#d(!$<B(
7V:<> [P$*: 8V<T"`"f
VGEE.&)•()!:="p•t86H<PP<:7`
(!"`P)#VK4h<P9aHZ*+CsvBB8
!: )((j%<9: Z<•4‘!q9: `
<3_!:=`86H<P!:=!$9+!9: !&4s
vBB8<T&c#nZq(<m8#d(!$8H:=8Z(
8!:=6()!<)PK<::=MN<)"#>%c
_Ko J(4
VGEE.<T<"%9: :[CT4MN6:="
VGEE.<:7`69: P(`L R<`6<&J( /<TJ
+!}GR<`6{!J+G.K’
9: 67<>($<C!<KON((
(<O()…4[(Y)(`8#U"HZ+!…
c4,!"`C9#<)C#(62C#(
`)(!"`<\B((P<<<&:7<:7C#("
8#"`4hCCP!<ci6,!6"#*,!=c6
"`P<#7<>!H<PC)#+C&8#!4X
9
!:=!6BHBIH8…Ha#"&"P,!<"
=,!"!"Y++(+(24,!<T<dT

8c7<>+:: 7,!<"P"J"
8#Z8Z68&">##N((8j",!
#<+<U4
=„!Km5()IC>(s14X()
3!<PK„Y+=[{q<,!()U<K:&$
4:s1PHe,!!(BC"B8<T((2<
: MNY!“7”]8C(BŽ^<J:7s14!: 
<9s1I<„Cq$„6{!„„4
ƒ>8<P!„„„4*„<:7\,HZ5Ic
!5„"!2!8B„6<,C%=8„!„
&c!5s14
:!„B:=![•P=6()K!>„
+"#J<!"P6K"((88IBB!!!n
HK!U„!(PC=cHW4!: <(()`a!
$"<s1!„I„(=6!CnY!()
U…+c$74=C#c!()7<>C#(i7()
`a!$6{!"!!`a<PC98#4
+<m<(% !P!!"`C9#CYCc"pO
UJ!+[PC8#d(!6{!C#(()!8#
!<P(!"`K#,B*<9m•!C#(4+(
!<P6[P((!"`K#8Y*!8#KC#(4X!
3C+(!9: PBBB+<`4
)B9: !~E-]Ovl!=^
"BB•!~-4X!P{!~o!8#PV6PFo: <T(
7<>C#(~o<P4\#<&=!8#<:7C#(: CC#
(##C~F-~o9!8#482{:V•XO#
<,•oJ(9: q\8cB(1B88#K:Cq"`4
1YV()`6suvŽCC#(Fo`"<#(C#~oC
B(CHsuvPFoK8&$C#(`: ~oCCH<P6
10

:O<:OG.'E.C84:suv8j"`*Fo7<>C#(<P(!(3
!()I!C3!„<C4X,[!()8B„4
&VJ:7CZJ( E' /"8„Cr<KJ
V(4h`()Vc(&((!59: 6<"1B
B8+C 8#4: 71BB86$8Z"#$
"#<TY!c\3HW<8Z8a<6CY99: "#7(!
,!<K:!H(a<K:=8Cr<KJ<(UC+<&
P+KC8+(!8#c<<#(C#<&=%84
M))"#$"#:OZ<T\#8<PYsuv6`
C#(<TC#(()8&">„84:<T#$6)"#!
8#c<:7<nsuv!*`C#(c c":
sM1s!M1us4a!<K*"#cH:=d"`C <:7
!<PP<<:!9: "`P()7<>*`C#(<
C#<#(M18=*<m:+C%q(&8Zi74l$C#(
8H: :"`<<Ce<r(Ui7O<&="#c=
<m2c]mK:"`P^6<mC%!<&=7<>c"`P!
%U([:"`Z%%,$$HaHZ!: 4
!!PUC98a<6"#Ce<r$Ha+9: 
JOC 4X!HW<*`<TV<:7"#<9
"pC9+K+(!8#c4$$"#c!,8Z
i7O!!(J+("#Ce<r$Ha+9: ()_d
d4MmHeaHZ*+CMN<TnZ%Cq<:():7(m
K:"#Ce<r$HaW"`5J<(UO0w+•
8&HW<K84
h#$HaHW<()8Z8#(+(29: U"
"`3#87!+K!T<$U7U!
$<,(!(eJ( 04(: +He<T#(83()
K(24$&!e=8Zrm$Ha5*+d‡ˆC<K
[:8Zi7!8#cJ<T,()8Z8#(+(2
++He!"#c!8"6HW<8Z8#(O*(!

11
+: +He6<<P!(8!+(K(2!"fH!4)
"!$HaO!()_dd!P!("O!8
"fH!4#<P6(U<)i7!%O6V()K=O
C#($HaJ<Ce<r8ZJi7]U"`•!
"#Ce<r%&^H(!!<K:Cr<KHZC()K(2
O]!(U<)i7Z"=^<)4
MmHe$+C<T+&():7"><C#T9: 
!$6+PKO*<U#%&41Y9: C9(c"#0G-
RS(nJ(6mKGRS<&=GJ(>*4
2. Bài học kinh nghiệm rút ra.
1. Bài h9c r:t ra t; cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính 2008,những g=i > cho chính sách
giám sát thị trường tài chính tại Việt Nam
- Thứ nhất là,KPU\…<3<r<&<)H:=d4;%=)
<"%q(3<i: PVc"`+<:7Z%,
!:O(P8j!(J$<),!6J
: H,…!,!4Q<)!P<:7Z%`*
U<K:((mU!:=:,!l6,!
$8m%&gN$Ha,H,41+<P6%cH:=
d[#q(!<3<&:7!: (&8Y*!YZ8ZU"`#
q((a<$!<KO4X!P!(#(C=8ZCe(U9
: Cc<)8#4
'U!6KPC%"(8mj<)Cc<)8#,
!k+K,!#<#(C#,
*<"%<#(C#!<),!k"(8R%<
!<K:8…Ha`a<_Cd!$(UHW<4M)c<+
<#!(8(!,!!:=P$<!!%()%
&#C8=(<P: \+#CO#9: 
*!O\#"#4
'UC!6KP$8(8<&=<)U"P4M1!!

`aK+9: U"q(J!P+9: 
U"!<> $"#[:"#J8#8ˆ<)
,!4+6U"P!<9#<:7"(8
mjq(*\#,!<9!8#6U
"4,!!:=K&7=‰CU"!:=%(
12
8<)<K:!$%&,!:O(4;%#!(8
%&,!()(m#(:(m"#"`:O<(U
<)%&!$4Q<)#M1!:OK
<:7dP!H9+()9: U"V4
Bài học kinh nghiệm về kinh tế
J:YHZ!(Y)+a(`8#\c!V!C)!9: \c
"d8j#<:7,<&4
X•(&:O*$8:=!\c"d!$829
: )<94)"#K!c:7:P(8j"`
C*4;VK32\,HZ!&9: )<9]3<H%
)<9<:2!<)ZJ:Y"6,(<K<<c#!K
"<J"#JUP=+ZH"#!K,6,"NJ
: H,;%(^4–,HZ$83>&:*H,
Bài học kinh nghiệm về tài chính
v(8mj,!"#T6R%7&@vl6<_8Z$a
($%&+9: !$4
8Z#9: !$!c<8U(4$8T8ce
73H%:=V&<(Y)8#\c"H6JJ
Z+9: &4
c•!(8mj9: !6%69: <9&69: U
"!P##6<74
Q%&!$6,!K<:7J: (86$8%K<:7#
mj4;$8%=‡8jHW=(U:"`
3<dJ:Y4*$8""`K6:OC#!

C*4
h\#"#$"#P(c<P4j!"`
: :=<:7"!(`%"H6"3"`b
<)`<P4
*:7"`&"`5()`=Cc"(): "`"f
!<PHW<8a<n!!4
UC#(…6K&_(6<<:7(`
3<&=%&!$,!!(Jm6\…*q(
8Z<i($H,
13
Bài học kinh nghiệm về Xã hội
h#!$!(VK=H,:C9#(6<P<&:7C9
#:Yc$!)•6*: C9c%4;V6$K
P$8#%< 8&!8\T)<3*)•4
2. Bài h9c kinh nghiệm đối với thế giới
'U\$%(!<<U
PFU<$%(!<K=!MH—86HHHl8!Š
ƒ8#C<C9C))!HtHT%\U"6C>(
Pcc:7c4M),‡=<:7<m!*T!\$Ha
c&]sss^Pc+6<OK!H8Z"f(‡2(&"(+(4
1q%c_"!628j"(<:7a`O4h`_<
 qT!8j"(<:7O()<"Cq%c
\$%(U"U`: 4
'O"B:YP!(J
M)*c<=`Y˜BB!%\<9"#
:Y:!4"#:Y(()"#=O:OCY
V<!4M),+YMBPV:OFG.<`:
:Y+=FG%<`4:YHZ+7Vr!<!<TCP(f
C#c!(a<$%""$,+4,+<:7""$r(*
=2C9"#:Y34ƒb!!6"#:Y•HZ+

7V()J(+C%!<P<P_28Z<i9: !
$4`<HK<$8:Y6B<P,+8j#!
"#7V"`<<:74"#:Y<:7*!"#
P<"%HC+UCr(*!•<:7,+""#7V!
7VV4
'*(`•P9=
*(`<:7\,HZ<(`‡*<\#ZV3
"`$\HtC9: !<<))4QO*6K
=H*%<K!(`!*8&%"U6""#(`
<:7UHa%4;!<<P*!*(`H: 4;V6
*,+V(`!B"#J(c%228j<:
(`B$7!!_c*!#9c4
14