Nghiên cứu thống kê tác động tổng hợp của du lịch đến tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam (2)_unprotected

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

THE THESIS WAS COMPLETED AT
NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY

NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY

Scientific Supervisor: PROFESSOR PHd. phan cong nghia

nGUYEN THI HUONG
Critic 1: :..........................................................

Critic 2:..........................................................

Statistical research Aggregate impact of

Critic 3:..........................................................

tourism to economic growth in vietnam
Research field: economics (economic statistics)
code:: 62310101
code

The thesis was defended in front of the board of
The National Economics University

At:.......... on ..... Date ..... 2016

Copies of this thesis can be found at::
- National Library
- National Economics University Library

hanoi - 2016


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INTRODUCTION
1. The significance of the topic
Tourism activities are increasingly playing an important role in economic and
social development. Tourism is becoming an indispensable demand in human’s
cultural and social life. Moreover, along with economic development, the
demand for traveling increases continuously with several tourism forms.
Tourism is considered as a smokeless industry for having a great impact and
significant contribution to the economic growth of many territories and countries
in the whole world. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council -WTTC
(2012) statistics, the total revenue generated from tourism was about 9.2% of
global Gross domestic product (GDP) with US$6.5 trillion and the employment
in this sector was over 260 million people. Forecasting in the next ten years,
with an average of 4% growth rate per year, tourism activities will create value
which accounts for 10% of global GDP, equivalent to USD $ 10 trillion per
year. The economy is developing, people living standards are increasingly
improved; therefore tourism becomes a criterion to assess the life quality and
living standards of the people from different social classes. Consumer products
in the tourism is to meet not only the essential requirements of daily life (food,
clothing, housing, transportation, ..) but also special needs of people (seeks for
knowledge; explore nature, culture, history, ...). Therefore, tourism activities are
related to many industries in the economy. The impact level and the spreading of
tourism activities in the economy in relation of interdisciplinary and

transnational scope are very significant. In order to observe, measure, evaluate
and analyze tourism activities, it is necessary to have international agreed
scientific methodologies available. So far there are different ways to assess and
record the impact of tourism activities on the socio-economic development. The
impact of tourism activities can be assessed based on the results of direct
measurement of tourism activities (from supply side) such as revenue, capital
and labor… or total spending of tourists (from demand side). The question is
which assessment reflects that in the most comprehensive and synthetic manner.
Moreover, it needs to allow detailed classification of different types of visitors
to measure the impact, and at the same time to evaluate and analyze their
contribution to the economy in the country and worldwide.

Around the world and in Viet Nam, many organizations and individuals have
researched to measure and assess the impact of tourism activities on the
economic growth within a region and a country. However, international and
national studies were unable to specify the using of non-competitive I-O Table,
they also failed to explicit the role of the inbound tourism and domestic tourism
when assessing the impact of tourism activities on economic growth.
2. Objectives and research questions
2.1 . Objectives of the study
This research proposes and builds the calculations to quantify the impact of
tourism on economic growth in Vietnam in a comprehensive, adequate and
feasible way based on non-competitive I-O Table. It also considers the impact of
tourism on economic growth through the expenditure of two groups of visitors
(international visitors and domestic visitors).
2.2. Research question
With the targets of evaluating the impact of tourism on economic growth in
the most comprehensive and synthesis way, the research content answers the
following questions:
Key questions: Which method evaluates the total impact of inbound tourism

and domestic tourism on the economic growth?
The sub-questions:
- How inbound tourism and domestic tourism impact directly on the value
added (VA) and GDP?
- How inbound tourism and domestic tourism impact indirectly on VA and
GDP?
- How total impact of domestic and inbound tourism effects economic
growth and job creation?
3. Subject and Scope of research
- Research Subject: The impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism
on economic growth. The impact of tourism should be considered in detail in
two types of visitors to see the effects of each type of tourism on economic
growth separately. The separation also allows identifying the role and position
of each visitor’s type in general picture. This is a fundamental basis so as to
research, analyze and propose the measures that enhance the impact and


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influence of tourism by each type of tourism on economic growth in detail and
in a more appropriate way.
- Research scope:
+ Content: In this research scope, the thesis defines the model, sources of
information and methodology to measure the tourism’s total impact in terms of
economics on economic growth. The thesis focuses on the study of the impact of
inbound tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth through visitor’s
expenditure and the non-competitive I-O table.
+ In terms of time: The thesis uses secondary data to serve the experiment

calculation with the most updated information published by the General
Statistics Office (GSO) including: IO Table of Vietnam in 2012 and findings of
the survey on visitor’s expenditure in 2013.
+ In terms of space: Methodology and experiment calculations in this thesis
are built for all economies which have tourism activities; in particular, focus
research on national tourism, including arriving international tourism and
domestic tourism.

- The thesis has proposed 02 indicator groups for assessing the total
impact of tourism on economic growth
+ Group of input indicator factor reflecting domestic tourism (including
indicators reflecting international visitors and domestic visitors);
+ Group of output indicators reflecting total impact of inbound tourism
and domestic tourism on economic growth includes 05 indicators: Gross Output
of tourism, value added of tourism, gross domestic product generated from the
impact of tourism, workers' income from tourism and tourism labor.
- The thesis proposes to use non-competitive IO table as calculation tools
and clarify explicit roles of inbound tourism and domestic tourism when
assessing the impact of tourism activities on economic growth.
The thesis proposed some recommendations to strengthen the impact of
tourism on economic growth and enhance the statistical evaluation of tourism
impact on economic growth

4. Research methodology
After reviewing some international and domestic research’s results
relating to the topic research, the author selected the following research
methods:
- Methods of synthesis and analysis on the basis of the methodology of:
System of National Accounts (SNA) of the United Nations Statistics; Tourism
Satellite Account (TSA) of the UNWTO.

- Data utilization method available through: Inbound tourists surveys of
GSO; Survey on domestic visitors of Vietnam National Administration of
Tourism.
- Modeling Method: Using the relationship which has been quantified in I-O
Table to calculate the total impact of the inbound tourism and domestic
tourisminbound tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth.
5. New contributions of the thesis
- The thesis has clarified the impact of the inbound tourism and domestic
tourism on economic growth by assessing direct impact, indirect impact and
total impact.

6. The structure of the thesis
Besides the introduction and conclusion, the content of thesis including
three chapters:
Chapter 1: General theory issues on the total impact of tourism on
economic growth.
Chapter 2: Methodology evaluating the total impact of tourism on
economic growth.
Chapter 3: Assessing the total impact of tourism on Vietnam’s economic
growth in 2013.


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CHAPTER 1
GENERAL THEORY ISSUES ON THE TOTAL IMPACT OF TOURISM
ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
1.1. Theory about tourism and the method of identifying tourism statistical

indicators
1.1.1. The concept of tourism and tourism statistics
1.1.1.1. Tourism concept
Tourism Satellite Account is a system of indicators, methodology that
calculates the value of tourism activity in a country and internationally. In
Section 2.2 of the TSA: RMF 2008 released by the United Nations (2009, p.12),
once again define the meaning of tourism as: "Tourism is defined by the
activities of visitors who take a trip out of his/her usual environment for less
than a year and for the main purpose other than to be employed by a resident
entity in the place visited”
Accordingly, tourism is identified when having all three conditions above:
- In terms of space, visitors must go outside their regular environment,
excludes trips within the accommodation, trips recurring nature between
accommodation and workplace and other frequent trips;
- Time travel activities of visitors last for less than a year;
- In terms of purpose, the trip was not to earn money in visited area.
The thesis uses the concept of tourism and other concepts related to
tourism under the TSA in order to consider the impact of tourism in all
economic activities, which help measure the total impact on economic growth in
a comprehensive and completed way.
1.1.1.2. The concept of tourism statistics
(1) Visitors; (2) Regular habitats; (3) Second House; (4) Length of trip;
(5) The main purpose of the trip; (6) Tourism expenditures; (7) Tourism
consumption; (8) Tourism products; (9) Tourism sector.

b. Indicators reflecting domestic tourism
c. Indicators reflecting national tourism
1.1.2.3. Method calculating statistical indicators on inbound tourism and
domestic tourism
a. Method calculating indicators reflecting inbound tourism

b. Method calculating the direct indicator of domestic tourism

1.1.2. The method to identify statistical indicators
1.1.2.1. Distinguish inbound tourism and domestic tourism
Tourism is divided into inbound tourism and domestic tourism according to
resident and non-resident.
1.1.2.2. The statistical indicators of inbound tourism and domestic tourism
a. Indicators reflecting inbound tourism

1.2. Theory about economic growth and the method of identifying
indicators reflecting economic growth
1.2.1. The concept of economic growth
According to the SNA, economic growth is the increase in the volume of
indicators reflecting the results of production activities of the entire economy in
a given period, usually reflected by the increase in GDP indicators. The thesis
applies theory about economic growth according to SNA methodology which
supports for statistical research to assess the total impact of tourism activities on
economic growth in Vietnam.
1.2.2. The method to identify indicators reflecting the economic growth
1.2.2.1. The concept and methodology of calculating Gross Output
a. Concept
Gross Output (GO) is the total value of material products and services
produced by manufacture of all economic activities generated in a given period
of time (quarter or year).
The Gross output is calculated according to the basic price and producer
price (referred to as cost production).
b. Calculation method
b1. Calculated directly from the output of products
b2. Calculated revenues from consumption
b3. Method calculating the sales

b5. Method calculating for the production of specific business: Banking
and insurance
1.2.2.2. The concept and methodology of value-added indicators
a. Concept
Value added (VA) is the new value of the goods and services generated
by the production process of an economic sector.
b. Calculation method


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General formula calculated VA by the method of production:
VA = GO - IC
Value added at current prices is calculated by GO basic prices minus (-)
intermediate consumption used prices.
1.2.2.3. The concept and methodology of indicator of domestic products
a. Concept
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total economic indicators to reflect
the new value of the goods and services generated by the entire economy in a
given time period (month, quarter, 6 months, 9 months, years).
GDP is always assessed by used price.
b. Calculation method
GDP is calculated by three methods: Production method, income
approach method and used method.
1.2.2.4. The concept and methodology of growth of total domestic product
a. Concept
GDP growth rate is a percentage of GDP increased later period compared
with the previous period. GDP growth is usually calculated from GDP at

constant prices (base year value) of the reporting year compared with the
previous year reporting year.
Currently, when it comes to economic growth generally tied to GDP
growth and some general economic indicators are concerned.
b. Calculation method
- GDP growth rate in the reporting year compared with the previous year
is calculated at constant prices (base year value) by the following formula:
dGDP

=

GDPn
GDPn-1

x 100

- 100

Where:
dGDP - GDP growth rate in the reporting year compared with the year previous
reporting year (%)
GDPn - Gross domestic product for the year at constant prices;
GDPn-1 - Gross domestic product of the year previous reporting year at constant
price;
- Calculate the growth rate of GDP per time period (years).

1.3. Total impact of tourism to economic growth and expenditure
indicators
1.3.1. The direct impact of tourism on economic growth
1.3.2. The indirect impact of tourism on economic growth

1.3.3. The total impact of tourism on economic growth
1.3.4. The indicators reflecting the impact of tourism on economic growth
The thesis proposed 05 groups of indicators reflecting the direct impact,
indirect and total impact of tourism on economic growth, including: (1) Gross
output of tourism; (2) Value added of tourism; (3) Gross domestic product
generated from the impact of tourism; (4) Labor income from tourism; (5)
Employment tourism.


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CHAPTER 2
METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS THE TOTAL IMPACT OF TOURISM
ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
2.1. Research Model to study total impact of tourism on economic growth
2.1.1. Introduction to the Input-Output Table (I-O table)
2.1.1.1. Formation and development of the I-O table
The I-O table is developed to support integrated analysis and assessment of
economic activities in an economy. In which, each sector is described in a linear
relationship between physical products and services in terms of the input cost for
the production process and the amount of products produced. The relationship of
all sectors in the entire economy is presented with a system of linear functions
with the coefficients determined by technological processes.
2.1.1.2. Contents of the IO table

2.1.2. Methodologies to assess total impact of tourism on economic growth
based on I-O table
In terms of users, tourism is disaggregated into two domains: the inbound

tourism and domestic tourism. Inbound tourism is reflected through indicators of
spending by inbound tourists to Vietnam. Domestic tourism is reflected through
indicators of spending by domestic tourists. Spending by inbound tourists and
domestic tourists are reflected through the corresponding indicators of the total
demand of the economy. The two key indicators reflecting tourists’ spending are
direct exports and individuals’ final expenditure in final consumption.

a. Assumptions of the I-O table
An I-O table is developed with some basic assumptions: linear assumption;
assumptions about the price; assumption on imports.
b. Structure of an I-O table
An I-O table is divided into three main fields: Field I, Field II and Field III.
- Field I: presents intermediate expenditure in columns and intermediate
consumption in rows;
- Field II: presents the final consumption, including: Final consumption
(households and the Government), Asset Accumulation (mobile and fixed),
Exports and Imports;
- Field III: presents the added value, including: the employee's income,
depreciation of fixed assets, production tax and surplus value.
c. Contents and indicators in the I-O table
2.1.1.3. Non-competitive I-O table
In the normal competitive I-O table, the supply-demand relationship is
described through the following equation:
X = AX + Y
(2.1)
The matrix A describes technical input level to produce a unit of
product. This input includes input supplied from the domestic products and
service sources (Ad) and input supplied from foreign sources (Am).
A = Ad + Am
(2.2)

2.1.3. Apply non-competitive I-O table to assess the total impact of tourism on
economic growth
Equation ∆X = (I-Ad)-1∆Yd is used to assess the impact on the entire
economy, in which ∆Yd is the final change in demand of domestic products and
services; as the initial impact vector used to quantify all the impact on economic
sectors.
- Impact on production: ∆X = (I-Ad)-1∆Yd
(2.6)
According to the Handbook of National Accounting -- Input-Output Table
Compilation and Analysis of the United Nations (General Statistics Office,
2003), the formula to estimate the total impact on the demand-supply
relationship is as follows:
+ Regarding Value-added (VA)
V= v X
(2.7)
In which:
V: Changes of VA when there is change in GO X
v: coefficient vector by line of VA
+ Regarding labour
L= l X
(2.8)
In which:
L: Change of labour when there is change in GO X
l: coefficient vector on labour


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2.1.4. Implications of direct, indirect and total assessment in I-O table
Changes in final demand affect the entire economic system. Changes in final
demand may be resulted in by changes in the structure of domestic consumption of
private sector, households or the Government in that country, or due to exports of
goods and services. In impact studies, changes in final demand are considered a
direct impact, direct shock, and direct effects of initial impact because this is an
exogenous shock which stimulates the entire economic system. When the shock is
caused by the final consumption demand (tourism consumption), the economy
responds by creating new products (increases GO) through inter-agency
transactions in the economy. These are responses of economic sectors in
changes of the final demand in sectors and are called indirect effects. The total
of direct impact and indirect impact to GO reflects the total impact which is
made up of the interdependence among economic sectors. It is the aggregated
impact on the entire economy.

2.2.1.3. Integrate the indicators of tourist expenses in the national account
system
Study of impact of tourism is considered from the expenditure of different
types of tourism corresponding to the indicators reflecting the needs of using
products of the I-O table and the SNA.
- Key expenses of domestic tourists is considered as final consumption of
households;
- Expenses of inbound tourists, included in goods and service export (direct
export);

2.2. Identify data sources to assess the total impact of tourism on economic
growth
2.2.1. Identify data sources for tourism
2.2.1.1. Identify data sources regarding inbound tourists

In order to identify expenditure of inbound tourists, it is important to
identify the data sources to collect data for the indicators:
- Total number of inbound tourists, disaggregated by tourists staying
overnights and tourists only visiting during the day;
- Average expense of an inbound tourist, disaggregated by tourists staying
overnights and tourists only visiting during the day.
2.2.1.2. Identifying data sources for domestic tourists
In order to identify the total expenses of domestic tourists, it is necessary to
identify data sources to collect information for the following indicators:
- Total domestic tourists, disaggregated by tourists staying overnights and
tourists only visiting during the day;
- Average expense of a domestic tourist, disaggregated by tourists staying
overnights and tourists only visiting during the day.

2.2.2. Identify data sources from the I-O table
In order to measure and assess the total impact of tourism on the
economy, it is necessary to have I-O table and identify some information from
findings of the I-O survey.
- The I-O table of basic competitive price is converted to non-competitive ones.
- The product classification in the I-O used for research is identified according to
the list of the expense items of inbound tourists and domestic tourists from findings
of the survey on expenses of tourists.
- The share of circulation fee (including transport fee and trade fee) and
product tax rate in the total product value according to groups of products
identified to estimate trade fee, transport fee and tax of products for estimating
the total impact of tourism to VA and GDP.
2.2.3. Identify other relevant data sources
Beside the data from the I-O table, the author of the thesis identifies
some other data sources for comparison, assessment and formulation of
coefficients applied for the research year.

- Absolute figures of national GDP and VA indicators at current prices of
the research year for quantifying the total impact of inbound tourism and
domestic tourism to GO, VA, and GDP.
- Product tax after deducting the subsidy and the rate of product tax of the
research year are combined in groups of consumption products. This indicator is
identified for the whole economy, to support estimation of total impact of
tourism to GDP of the whole economy.
- Labour information is disaggregated according to the classification of the
research year to estimate the vector of labour coefficient in tourism sector.


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All of the above information is estimated and disseminated by the General
Statistics Office annually or every five years.
2.3. Steps to estimate parameters to assess the total impact of tourism on
economic growth
Based on the methodologies presented in item 2.1.3 and the data sources
identified as above, estimate the total impact of inbound tourism and domestic
tourism on economic growth, implemented for each type of expense of tourism
according to the six following steps:
Step 1. Identify expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists
(1) Expenses of inbound tourists and domestic tourists according to the
consumption value estimated from the average expense of a tourist and total
number of tourists, based on the formula 2.10 as follows:
Formula:
Total expense of
Average expense of an

Total number of
inbound
inbound
=
X
inbound tourists/
(2.10)
tourists/domestic
tourist/domestic tourist
domestic tourists
tourists
(2) Based on the list of the tourists’ expenses, identify the list of tourism
products consistent with the list of the I-O Table selected in the research model.
After that, the value of the tourists’ expense is imputed for the corresponding
product categories.
(3) Convert expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists from
purchase price to basic price.
Step 2. Compilation and processing in I-O Table
(1) Integrate industries of the I-O Table and other information according
to products categories of tourists’ expense.
(2) Identify the VA coefficient vectors, income of tworkers and
employment compared with I-O Table according to the industry groups selected.
Identify the product tax rate compared with VA at current price of the
research year as follows:
The product tax rate
compared with the
VA of the research
year

=

Total product tax at
current price of the
research year

:

VA at current price
(2.11)
of the research year

(3) Calculate the matrix of the direct cost coefficient excluding imported
products (Ad), matrix (I-Ad) and then the inverse matrix (I-Ad)-1 from the total I-O
Table.
Matrix of the
Unit
Matrix of the total
(2.12)
indirect impact
=
matrix
impact coefficient
coefficient
Step 3. Identify GO of tourism
The direct, indirect and total gross output of tourism is estimated as follows:
(1) Direct gross output of inbound tourism and domestic tourism is equal to
expense of inbound tourism and domestic tourism according to basic price:
Expense of inbound
Direct GO of inbound
=

tourists/domestic tourists
tourists/domestic tourists
(2) The indirect gross output of inbound tourism and domestic tourism is
generated due to indirect impact of the total expense of tourists according to basic
price and matrix coefficient of indirect impact:
Matrix of
Expense of tourists
Indirect GO
indirect impact
=
according to basic
X
(2.13)
of tourism
coefficient
price
(3) The total gross output of inbound tourism and domestic tourism is equal to
total of direct GO and indirect GO:
Total GO of
Direct GO of
Indirect GO of
+
(2.14)
tourism
=
tourism
tourism
Step 4. Identifying VA and GDP generated from impact of tourism
(1) Direct, indirect and total VA of inbound tourism and domestic tourism
is estimated according to the direct, indirect and total GO of tourism and VA

coefficient vector compared with GO as follows:
Vector of the
GO of
VA coefficient
X
(2.15)
VA of tourism
=
tourism
compared against
GO


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(2) Calculate the product tax generated from the direct, indirect and total
impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism for the economy:
Product tax
The rate of product tax
VA
X
from tourism
=
compared with VA of the
(2.16)
of tourism
research year
(3) The GDP generated from the direct, indirect and total impact of
inbound tourism and domestic tourism for the economy is calculated as follows:
Product tax
GDP generated from

VA
tourism activities
=
+
from tourism
(2.17)
of tourism
Step 5. Identify income of workers from tourism
Income of direct, indirect and total labour from inbound tourism and
domestic tourism identified based on direct, indirect and total GO of tourism and
the income coefficient vector of labour compared against GO:
GO of
Income coefficient vector
Income of workers
X
of workers compared
(2.18)
from tourism
= tourism
against GO
After calculating income of direct, indirect and total labour, according to
the following formula:
Income of the total
Income of indirect
Income of direct
labour
=
+
labour
(2.19)

labour
Step 6. Identify tourism labour
Total tourism employment created by direct, indirect and total impact
of inbound tourism and domestic tourism is estimated according to the
following formula:
Tourism
Tourism
employment
GO
=
X
(2.20)
employment
coefficient vector
of tourism
Based on the estimated GDP created by direct, indirect and total impact of
inbound tourism and domestic tourism in absolute data, it is possible to identify
the rate between GDP created by tourism and GDP of the whole economy.

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CHAPTER 3
ASSESS TOTAL IMPACT OF TOURISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
OF VIET NAM IN 2013
3.1. Collect, compile and process information to assess the total impact of
tourism on economic growth on Viet Nam in 2013
3.1.1. Collect, compile and process information on tourism
3.1.1.1. Overview of tourism in Viet Nam
a. Potential of Viet Nam tourism
Viet Nam is a country with diversified and rich tourism potential which is
reflected in strengths related to vestiges, tourist attraction, UNESCO heritage, culture

and festivals.
b. Tourism activities in Viet Nam
With the diversified and rich potential as mentioned above, tourism has
been considered as a leading industry in Viet Nam. In the past 15 years, Viet
Nam tourism has significant changes reflected through the fact that the number
of inbound tourists to Viet Nam increased from 2 million to 8 million visitors.
3.1.1.2. Data sources on tourism of Viet Nam
a. Information on the total number of tourists
- Total number of inbound tourists
Information on the number of inbound tourists can be withdrawn from
yearly statistical yearbook of the GSO. This data has been compiled from
information on immigration to Viet Nam through Immigration Department
under Ministry of Public Security, the Border Gate Department, and the Border
Guard Department of the Ministry of National Defense. However, there is only
information on the number of inbound tourists as the whole rather than broken
down by visitors staying over nights and ones only travelling during the day. In
order to estimate the number of inbound tourists and domestic tourists broken
down by tourists staying overnight and tourists only travelling during the day,
the Tourism Information Centre the Viet Nam National Administration of
Tourism conducted surveys in 2013 and 2014.
- Total number of domestic tourists
Information on the total number of domestic tourists is extracted from
surveys of the Viet Nam National Administration of Tourism. In order to
disaggregate the total number of domestic tourists into those staying overnight


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and those only travelling during the day, it is necessary to extract information
from the sampling surveys on tourism of both the GSO and Viet Nam National
Administration of Tourism.
3.1.1.3. Collecting, compiling and processing information on tourism of Viet
Nam
a. Collecting, compiling and processing information on number of tourists
and average expense per tourist
After considering and assessing information from different sources, the
research is based on the principles of selecting data for calculation as follows:
- Regarding tourism statistics from different sources, select data which has
been officially published by the GSO and the Viet Nam National Administration
of Tourism;
- Regarding data that the GSO does not have, such as; number of domestic
tourists, tourists staying overnight, tourists travelling during the day…, author of the
thesis just used information from surveys of the Viet Nam National Administration
for Tourism.
b. Collecting, compiling and processing information on expense of tourists
(1) Calculate total expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists
according to purchase price.
According to data on average expense of an inbound tourist or domestic
tourist; number of inbound tourists and domestic tourists disaggregated into those
staying overnight and those travelling during the day only according to each item by
purchase price.
(2) Identify the list of product categories
The list of expense items according to tourism products in surveys on
tourists’ expense is used as a basis to identify the product categories which is
systematically applied in the research model. After that, arrange them
appropriately with the VSIC 2007 and the I-O Table 2012.
(3) Recalculate expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists according to
basic price

Actual expense of tourists in surveys is published in purchase price, and
expense in the I-O Table is in basic price, excluding product tax, trade and
transport fee. Thus, it is necessary to convert expense of inbound tourists from
purchase to basic price.

3.1.2. Collecting, compiling and processing information from the I-O table
According to step 2 in item 2.3 of Chapter 2, data in the I-O Table in 2012,
basic price of GSO including 164 categories of products combined into 8
categories of tourism products, equal to expense of tourists in surveys conducted
by the GSO.
Based on that, estimate the matrix of direct expense coefficient at noncompetitive mode (excluding imported products) Ad; the total expense
coefficient is equal to (I-Ad)-1 and the matrix of indirect expense coefficient.
3.1.3. Other data collecting, compiling and processing on income and
employment
- Information on number of labour in 2012 and GO in 2012 published by
the GSO in 2015 in the Statistical Yearbook is compiled according to the eight
selected groups of tourism products.
Estimate the vector of employment coefficient by industry is according to
the following formula:
The vector of
Gross Output in
employment coefficient = Employment in 2012 :
2012
in 2012
- The I-O Table 2012 provides information on VA coefficient vector,
income of the workers compared with the GO by industry categories.
3.2. Estimate indicators reflecting tourism impact on economic growth of
Viet Nam in 2013
Applying methods presented from step 3 to step 6 in item 2.3 of Chapter 2
in order to calculate indicators reflecting impact of tourism on economic growth

of Viet Nam in 2013. The results include the following indicators: VA, GDP,
income of workers and employment of inbound tourism and domestic tourism
according to direct, indirect and total assessment.
3.2.1. Gross Output of tourism in 2013
According to the estimate of the thesis, the total direct, indirect and total
GO of the inbound tourism is respectively 1.43 times; 1.48 times and 1.45 times
larger than domestic tourism. This shows that in 2013, the inbound tourism has
greater impact on domestic tourism. The total GO is 1.784 times larger than
direct GO of inbound tourism; while this rate of domestic tourism is 1.756
times. These rates show that in 2013, inbound tourism has better impact on the


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whole economy.
3.2.2. Value added of tourism in 2013
Considering the impact of inbound tourism, in 2013 direct impact of
inbound tourism on exporting created total VA of VND70,795 billion and
indirect impact which affected other industries with the indirect VA of
VND57,257 billion. Thus, the total impact on the VA on the whole economy
was VND128,052 billion, accounting for 3.6% GDP of Viet Nam. In which,
total impact of inbound tourism on VA of the accommodation services was
VND34,930 billion (accounting for 27.3% of the total impact), restaurant
services with VND19,745 billion (15.4%), sightseeing services with
VND16,221 billion (12.7%) and passenger transport services of VND14,613
billion (11.4%). Domestic tourism reflects similar characteristics in terms of
impact on VA of different industries, though the levels are a little bit different.
Expense of domestic tourists affecting VA of the whole economy was
VND86,017 billion, accounting for 2.4% GDP. The total impact of domestic
tourism created VA of some corresponding typical industries such as:
accommodation services of VND21,057 billion (accounting for 24.5% total

impact of domestic tourism on VA of the whole economy), restaurant services
of VND14,381 billion (16.7 %); sightseeing of 10,754 billion (12.5%)…
3.2.3. Total GDP generated from impact of tourism in 2013
GDP generated from direct, indirect and total impact of inbound tourism and
domestic tourism is presented in Table 3.13. Accordingly, GDP estimated from the
VA and the rate of product tax per VA at current price in 2013 was: 0.119 (=
VND362,375 billion/VND3,221,887 billion) – GSO, Yearbook in 2015 (p. 172).
GDP of tourism is estimated with total VA of tourism at basic price combined
with the product tax of tourism.
3.2.4. Income of tourism workers
The direct impact of inbound tourism on income of workers was
VND44,053 billion, accounting for 62.2% VA due to the direct impact. At the
same time, the indirect impact of domestic tourism on this indicator was
VND37,291 billion, accounting for 65% of VA resulted by indirect impact. The
results of direct and indirect impact of domestic tourism are also similar.
3.2.5. Tourism employment
Total employment generated in different industries due to the impact of

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inbound tourism and domestic tourism on the economy (Table 3.15) was for
2,340,730 workers and 1,592,338 workers respectively, equal to 4.5% and 3%
compared with the total number of employment of the whole country before 2013.
Thus, the total employment in industries supporting tourists in 2013 was estimated
at 3,933,068 workers, accounting for 7.5 % of the total employment of the country.
3.3. Comments, assessment and recommendations
3.3.1. Comments and assessments
From the estimates of the indicators such as: VA, GDP, income of
workers and employment of inbound tourism and domestic tourism reflects
impact of these two types of tourism on economic growth of Viet Nam in 2013,
specifically:

(1) Expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists according to basic
price was VND158,479 billion and VND110,828 billion, total VA resulted by
impact from expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists at basic price was
VND128,052 billion and VND86,017 billion. The rate between expense of
inbound tourists and domestic tourists at basic price was 1.43 times
(=158,479/110,828), while the rate between total GDP of inbound tourists and
total GDP of domestic tourists was 1.50 times (=143,398/96,326). This shows
that the total impact on the economy by inbound tourism was higher than that of
domestic tourism.
(2) The comparison data shows that in some industries, the total VA is
much larger than the expense of the two groups of tourists at basic price. These
industries are:
- Trade: the total VA was respectively 2.9 times and 2.7 times higher than
the real expense of inbound tourists and domestic tourists in this sector;
- Tourism: total VA of sightseeing activities compared to the expense of
inbound tourists and domestic tourists was 1.3 and 1.4 times respectively;
- These rates in health service activities are highest with about 3.6 times
and 3 times respectively; in entertainment activities, these rates were 1.8 times
and nearly 2.3 times respectively.
This shows that the expense of the two groups to the service sector
categories includes: Trade; Sightseeing; Health services and Entertainment have
great impact on total VA (from 1.4 times to 3 times). At the same time, expense
of inbound tourists and domestic tourists in other industries has lower impact on


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the total VA (smaller than 1).

3.3.1.2. Assessing the GDP of tourism
According to the estimates presented in Table 3.17, the total GDP of
inbound tourism and domestic tourism was VND143,398 billion and
VND96.326 billion respectively, equal to 4.0% and 2.69% of GDP of the whole
country.
3.3.1.3. Assessing employment of the inbound tourism and domestic tourism
If expense of inbound tourists was 1.42 times higher than that of domestic
tourists, the total employment of the former was 1.46 times higher than that of
the latter (=1,780,732/1,217,330). This rate once again shows greater impact of
inbound tourism on the economy compared against domestic tourism.
The total tourism employment was respectively 1.85 times and 1.83 times
higher than direct employment of inbound tourism and domestic tourism. In
which, this rate in trade sector was 4 times, sightseeing was more than two times
and health services was more than 6 times, entertainment was nearly 3 times.
This has further confirmed the role and better impact of service sectors
supporting tourism on the economy.

industries which create high total impact such as trade, sightseeing services,
health services, entertainment, it is important to create favourable conditions to
encourage spending to increase impact on economic growth in depth. Hence, it
is possible to identify the direction for investment, policies to support
development for industries with higher total impact, means better effects to the
economy.
3.3.2.3. Policies to ensure quality and efficiency of inbound tourism
According to the estimates, the expense of inbound tourists has greater
impact on economic growth, so it is necessary to pay attention to policies to
advertise and attract international tourists to Viet Nam. This shows that in order
to improve results and efficiency of tourism business activities, it is important to
enlarge the international tourism markets both in term of volume and quality of
inbound tourists.

3.3.2. Recommendations to push tourism impact on economic growth
3.3.2.1. Policy to attract tourists
According to the approach and assessment of the Thesis, the total tourism
impact on economic growth depends on total expense of inbound tourists and
domestic tourists. Total expense of tourists depends on the average expense of a
tourist and number of tourists.
- In terms of average expense of an inbound tourist and a domestic tourist,
there is always difference. In order to increase the average expense of a tourist, it
is necessary to analyse tourist markets according to groups to identify groups of
countries with high and stable expense.
- In terms of increase in number of tourists: attracting tourists to increase
the number of tourists is the work that most of the countries need to implement
to push growth of tourism as well as to increase impact of tourism on economic
growth.
3.3.2.2. Policy to stipulate spending
Estimates in the thesis shows that the difference in tourist’s spending
structure results in different impact levels on economic growth. For some

3.3.3. Recommendations on strengthening statistics to assess impact of
tourism on economic growth
3.3.3.1. Unify and standardize relevant concepts
- First of all, it is important to unify and standardize concepts on domestic
tourists to identify and measure expense of this group to build foundation to
estimate its impact on economic growth and job creation in the economy.
- Very detailed classification in the notation of the relevant indicators to
identify and measure expense of tourists is also a content which need to be paid
with attention from the time of building concepts.
- It is necessary to consider conducting surveys on domestic tourism with
survey units are households according to recommendations of the World

Tourism Organisation.
3.3.3.2. Unification of calculation methods and information sources
It is necessary to agree on the methods to assess impact of tourism based on
the demand (from expense of tourists) and based on the supply (spreading
effects) of tourism through expense of tourists on economic growth and job
creation. From there, build concrete and clear estimation steps, clarify
estimation of these indicators.
3.3.3.3. Task division and cooperation in implementation
Implementation of these indicators is closely combined with the
compilation of TSA and SNA, so it is necessary to divide the tasks and


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cooperate in implementation corresponding to functions and tasks of related
agencies, mainly between the GSO and the Viet Nam National Administration
of Tourism. First of all, develop cooperation mechanisms through interministerial circulars or regulations on sharing and providing information for the
indicator system of common interest with specific tables, forms on contents,
scope, and due date for reporting and methods to share information.

the case of Viet Nam in 2013. Through which, comment and assess the estimation
findings and propose some recommendations to push the total impact of tourism
on economic growth as well as strengthen statistics work to assess the total impact
of tourism on economic growth of Viet Nam in the coming time.
Shortcomings of the thesis: though the Thesis proposed methods to
calculate the total impact of tourism on the economy, the calculation should be
considered for extension with some similar service sectors (such as information
and communication, individual and community services…) to see the total

impact of tourism on economic growth more clearly. However, due to
difficulties in input information, this content should subject to further study in
the future.

CONCLUSION
Demand for travelling of domestic tourists and international tourists tends
to increase, which shows the role of the tourism sector in socio-economic
development. Expense of tourists has direct impact on development of not only
tourism branches, companies but also many other related economic activities.
The inter-agencies, inter-region, and international nature of tourism is formed
and developed. Thus, it is necessary to study measurement and assessment on
the impact of tourism on economic growth in the connection with all related
industries and the key components of tourism in order to fully and concretely
assess and analyse the situation to support research and management; and
introduce better policies to support these activities in the coming time.
In order to accurately and fully assess the role of inbound tourism and
domestic tourism, increase efficiency of each type of tourism, the thesis has
applied the statistical theory of SNA to assess the total impact of inbound
tourism and domestic tourism on economic growth. In order to implement such
goal, the thesis has implemented some contents as follows:
(1) Systematise and clarify some basic theories on tourism, economic
growth, the relationship between tourism and economic growth from supply
side, and demand side in inter-agency impact and effect of the whole economy
based on the theory foundation of TSA and SNA.
(2) Building methods to assess the total impact of inbound tourism and
domestic tourism on economic growth of Viet Nam based on expense of
inbound tourists, domestic tourists and I-O Table.
(3) Based on the assessment methods proposed, the Thesis piloted the
estimation of total impact of inbound tourism and domestic tourism on growth in

LIST OF THE AUTHOR’S PUBLISHED WORKS RELATED
TO THE THESIS
1.

2.

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8.

9.

Nguyen Thi Huong (2011) ; Chairman, Facility level project
“Completing the content of System of National accounts as modified
recommendation of Statistical agency of the United Nations (SNA)
200 ”; Institute of Statistical Science;
Nguyen Thi Huong (2012), “Research and Recommendation applied
some content innovation of SNA 2008 in Vietnam” Statistical Science
Information Paper, No. 2,
Nguyen Thi Huong (2013), “ Process indicators compiled production
value, added value applied to the central and local, Statistical Science

Information” Statistical Science Information Paper, No.3;
Nguyen Thi Huong (2014),Chairman, Ministry level project
“Completed research and process computerization of aggregate
indicators of production value, added value applied to the central and
local ", Institute of Statistical Science;
Nguyen Thi Huong (2015), “Applying I-O table to assess the impact
of tourism to sustainable economic growth in Vietnam”, Science
Convention summary record of “Research on building compilation
process of Gross Domestic Product green indicators in
Vietnam” ;Institute of Statistical Science;
Nguyen Thi Huong(2015), “I-O Table application in study of synthetic
impact of tourism on economic growth” Figures and Events Journal,
No.6;
Nguyen Thi Huong (2015), “Construction Method on builidng
uncompetitive I-O Table”, Economy and Forecast Journal, Ministry of
Planning and Investment, No.7;
Nguyen Thi Huong (2015), “Method assessment about the
aggregate impact of tourism on economic growth in the uncompetive
I-O model”, Science Convention summary record,Faculty of
Statistics, Naional Economics University, October.
Nguyen Thi Huong (2016), “Evaluate the aggregated impact of tourism
on economic growth in Vietnam through interdisciplinary balance sheet”,
Journal of Economics and Development, National Economics University,
No.232(II), October/2016.