Báo cáo cập nhật hằng quý PVD – Khuyến nghị: Mua – Giá mục tiêu: 58.784

Date: 11 June.2013

QUARTERLY EARNINGS UPDATE – 1Q13
Petro Vietnam Drilling (PVD – HOSE)
Sector: Energy

High earnings growth outweighs the dilution risk in 2013,
stable earnings outlook in the longer term
BUY RECOMMENDATION, 1Y TARGET PRICE VND 58,784
The stock has reached our previous target set on 6 May 2013 (Companies AGM note_06 05
2013_SSIResearch), equating to a 32% capital gain in one month. We reiterate our BUY
recommendation for the stock based on a revised Target PER of 8x, predicated on the
followings:

Thuy Nguyen

+84-4 3 936 6321 ext 526
Current price (VND)

51,500

Target Price (12M):

58,784

Recommendation (12M):

BUY

Short-term Rating (<3M):

OVERWEIGHT

Sector Rating:

OVERWEIGHT

Date of Report:
High earnings growth in 2013 could temper fear of the dilution risk from private placement,
thanks to two main factors: (i) Full operation of PVD’s rig fleet in 2013; (ii) Higher drilling day rate.
Our estimates revealed that net income attributable to shareholders in 2013 would reach VND
1,770 bn (+34% YoY), translating to 2013 EPS of VND 7,066 (+12.3% YoY).
Earnings outlook continues to be sound in 2014: The contract for PV Drilling I, II, III is almost
fixed until August 2014, which could help PVD avoid the risk of decrease in international oil price.
Change in CAPEX plan – Trade - off between cash flow and earnings growth: The premium
jack up project this year has been cancelled, PVD plans to build 2 jack up in 2013 and 2014, in
which PVD will contribute 90% and 70% respectively. These 2 jack ups are expected to commence
operation in 2015 and 2016. Even though these CAPEX plan will affect PVD’s cash flow in the short
term, we think that it is a necessary mean in the long term to trade off with the earnings growth. The
commencement of 2 new rigs in 2015 and 2016 will help PVD to increase its drilling market share
and maintain stable growth in the long term



The private placement is expected to be completed at the end of 2Q13, which will
increase PVD’ share capital to satisfy its capital demand while still improving its D/E ratio. The
bidding list was finalized last week. Concern over dilution risk will soon subside, which will lead
to stable performances



2012 dividend (10% in cash, 10% in stock bonus) generate upside catalysts in the short
term: 2012 dividend is expected to be paid in 3Q13.



Potential impressive earnings results for 2Q13: in 2Q12, PV Drilling I had 35 days of
periodic maintenance, therefore, in 2Q13, with the full operation of PV Drilling I, earnings
results will steamroll as expected. In addition, there is a possibility that the profit from the
Baker Hughes joint venture of approx. VND 100bn could be recorded in 2Q13. In such case, it
could create an earnings surprise for PVD in 2Q13. High earnings growth is also expected
in 2H13: Drilling day rate in 2H13 will increase approx. 15% as compared to 1H13; drilling
operation will also amplify thanks to the increase in the number of leased rigs

Net revenue
NI attributable to PVD’s
shareholders
EPS (VND)
ROA
ROE
Dividend (VND)
PE
PB
EV/EBITDA

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Key figures
Market Cap. (USD mil):

523

Market Cap. (VND bn):

10,997

Outstanding shares (mn)

210

52-week high/low (000s, VND)

52.5/30.9

Average 3-month volume

313,942

Foreign ownership (%)

37.26%

State ownership (%)

50.38%

Management ownership (%)

Na

Stock performance

Short-term positive catalysts

Bn VND

11 June 2013

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013E

2014E

7,572

9,210

11,859

14,918

15,271

882

1,067

1,318

1,770

1,929

4,235
6.6%
18.6%
2000
12.5
2.13
8.77

5,088
6.5%
18.3%
1500
6.5
1.13
6.44

6,269
7.7%
21.6%
1000
6.0
1.1
4.5

7,066
9.3%
24.1%
1000
7.3
1.4
4.2

7,701
9%
21.6%
1000
6.7
1.2
3.9

Source: Bloomberg
Company Snapshot
PVD was established in 2001, based on the
strategy of PetroVietnam to focus on building
and developing oil & gas technology. In
February 2006, PVD was equitized and in
December 2006, it began trading on HOSE
with an initial charter capital of VND 680 bn.
More than 50% of PVD's revenue comes
from drilling service, with revenue from jack
up rigs accounting for the majority. PVD
owns three jack up drilling rigs (PV
DRILLING I, II, III), one land rig and one semi

submersible tender assist drilling rig – TAD

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1


QUARTERLY EARNINGS UPDATE – 1Q13

Date: June.2013

COMMENTS ON 1Q13 FINANCIAL RESULTS
(bn VND)

1Q13

1Q12

YoY

4Q12

QoQ

Net sales

3,178.9

2,360.1

34.7%

3,605.7

-11.8%

Gross profit

787.2

636.5

23.7%

725.3

EBIT

579.0

519.7

11.4%

403.1

EBITDA

843.4

727.3

16.0%

696.7

21.1%

Pretax profit

517.0

448.7

15.2%

333.5

55.0%

Net income
NI attributable to
shareholders

452.8

380.3

19.0%

257.4

75.9%

421.1

370.3

13.7%

216.8

94.2%

Completion
of 2013
target
28.2%

Margin
1Q13

1Q12

4Q12

2012

8.5%

24.8%

27.0%

20.1%

22.5%

43.6%

18.2%

22.0%

11.2%

16.8%

26.5%

30.8%

19.3%

25.4%

16.3%

19.0%

9.3%

14.2%

14.2%

16.1%

7.1%

12.1%

13.2%

15.7%

6.0%

11.1%

32.0%

31.0%

1Q13 high earnings results, in line with our expectation: PVD has announced its 1Q13
earnings results in which net revenue totaled VND 3,179 bn (+34.7% YoY) and net income
attributable to shareholders totaled VND 421 bn (+13.7% YoY), which were driven by three
main factors: (i) TAD was in full operation in 1Q13 (In 1Q12, TAD commenced operation since
mid Feb 2012); (ii) 10% increase YoY in day rate; (iii) Operation expansion thanks to the
increase in leased rigs (from 1 in 1Q12 to 3 leased rigs in 1Q13)

Slight decrease in gross margin (from 27% in 1Q12 to 24.8% in 1Q13), which is normal
along with the increase in leased rigs. It should be noted that the margin of PVD’s leased rigs
is much smaller than the margin of PVD’s owned rigs. However, the high revenue from the
increase in leased rigs could more than offset the slight decrease in gross margin
Sharp increase in G&A expense hindered profit growth of PVD in 1Q13 (+67% YoY; G&A
as % of revenue increased from 4.7% in 1Q12 to 5.9% in 1Q13). This significant increase is
mainly due to the allocation for the scientific and technological fund (In 2012, the scientific and
technological fund was booked in 2Q12). Hence, we assume that the G&A expense in 2Q13
could decreased YoY.

UPDATE ON THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT
PVD plans to increase its share capital to satisfy its capital demand while still improving its D/E
ratio. In 2013, the company plans to issue an additional 40 million shares, in which 38 million
shares are issued through private placement and 2 million shares are issued through ESOP.
The private placement is expected to be completed at the end of 2Q13.
In the ESOP, issuance price will be VND 10,000/share, the lock – period will be 2 years. In the
private placement, PVN will purchase 20,152 million shares to safeguard its majority

www.ssi.com.vn

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2


QUARTERLY EARNINGS UPDATE – 1Q13

Date: June.2013

shareholder position; hence the 17,848 million shares will be sold to strategic and/or financial

partners.


For PVN, the issuance price corresponds with the BVPS on 30 June 2012, which is
approx. VND 32,355, 38% discount as compared to the current market price of VND
52,500 on 10 June 2013; the lock period is 3 years.



For other investors, the issuance price is set under negotiation and will be no less than the
BVPS on the issuance date.

The bidding list was finalized last week. Therefore, concerns over dilution risk will soon
subside, which lead to stable performances.

CATALYSTS TO WATCH IN THE NEXT 3-6 MONTHS
The private placement is expected to be completed at the end of 2Q13. Chartered capital
would increase to VND 2,756 bn after the private placement and the stock dividend, making
20% dilution risk. The D/E ratio will be improved, decreases from 0.97 in 2012 to 0.81 in 2013
in our estimates. If we were to based on an average issue price of VND 38,000 in the private
placement, PVD could raise VND 1,444 bn (~$68.5 mn, approx. 30% total investment of one
new jack up),
Expectation of impressive earnings growth in 2Q13: It should be noted in 2Q12, PV
Drilling I had 35 days of periodic maintenance, therefore, in 2Q13, with the full operation of PV
Drilling I, earnings results will steamroll as expected. In addition, there is a possibility that the
profit from the Baker Hughes joint venture of approx. VND 100bn could be recorded in 2Q13.
In such case, it could generate earnings surprise for PVD in 2Q13. High earnings growth in
2H13 is also expected thanks to 15% increase in day rate as compared to 1H13 and
operation expansion (number of leased rigs increased from 3 in 1H13 to 4 in 2H13).
2012 dividend (10% in cash, 10% in stock bonus) could create upside in short term:

2012 dividend is expected to be paid in 3Q13.
Change in CAPEX plan: The premium jack up project (joint venture with FEG), which is
planned to commence operation in October 2013 has been cancelled. In the updated CAPEX
plan, the company planned to build a jack up this year in the form of a joint venture, in which
PVD will contribute 90%. This rig is expected to commence operation in 2015. In 2014, PVD
plans to build another rig, which is expected to commence operation in 2016.

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3


QUARTERLY EARNINGS UPDATE – 1Q13

Date: June.2013

INVESTMENT OPINION: BUY, 1 year target price of VND
58,784/share
Investment Rationale
The stock has reached our previous target set at 6 May 2013 (Companies AGM note_06
05 2013_SSIResearch), making 32% capital gain in one month, mainly thanks to the
expectation of 2013 high earnings results (increase in drilling day rate in 2H13 and the
recognition of profit from Baker Hughes joint venture in 2013) and the expectation on the
accomplishment of the private placement.
High earnings growth in 2013 could temper fear of dilution risks, thanks to two main
factors: (i) Full operation of PVD’s rig fleet in 2013; (ii) Higher drilling day rate. Our estimates
revealed that net income attributable to shareholders in 2013 would reach VND 1,770 bn
(+34% YoY), translating to 2013 EPS of VND 7,066 (+12.3% YoY) after taken into account

20% dilution risk this year.
Earnings outlook continues to be sound in 2014: The contract for PV Drilling I, II, III is
almost fixed until August 2014, which could help PVD avoid the risk of decrease in
international oil price. In our estimates, 2014 net income attributable to shareholders will reach
VND 1,929 bn (+9% YoY), translating to 2014 EPS of VND 7,701 (+9% YoY). At today price of
51,500, PVD is traded at 1 year forward PE of 7.0x.
The trade - off between cash flow and earnings growth will still make PVD an attractive
stock. Even though the CAPEX plan will negatively affect PVD’s cash flow in the short term,
we think that it is a necessary mean in the long term for earnings growth. The commencement
of 2 new rigs in 2015 and 2016 will help PVD to increase its drilling market share and maintain
stable growth in the long term (It should be noted that the demand for new jack up rigs has
increased: According to Rigzone, rig utilization rates have improved over the past 12 months,
as of 28 March 2013, rig utilization rates was 84.7%, which is an increase from 81.4% six
months ago and 78.1% one year ago). It should be noted that the margin of PVD’s owned rigs
is much higher than the margin of PVD’s leased rigs, hence, the increase of owned rigs could
also improve PVD’s gross margin.

Investment risk

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

Decrease in international oil price could influence the drilling day rate in the long term



Fluctuation of international drilling day rate



CAPEX plan will affect PVD’s cash flow in the short term
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4


QUARTERLY EARNINGS UPDATE – 1Q13

Date: June.2013

In conclusion, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for the stock with 1 year target price of
VND 58,784 based on a revised 1 year forward PE of 8x, The revision of target PE is mainly
due to the expectation of the accomplishment of the private placement, the stable earnings
outlook in the long term and the uptrend of the stock market (the market PE stood at 10.45x
on 4 June 2013 – SSI Research).
Sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity Analysis
Target price (1Y)

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6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

47,762

51,436

55,110

58,784

62,458

66,132

69,806

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5


QUARTERLY EARNINGS UPDATE – 1Q13

Date: June.2013

APPENDIX 1: ANNUAL FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
VND Billion
Balance Sheet
+ Cash & Cash equivalent
+ Short-term investments
+ Account receivables
+ Inventories
+ Other current assets
Total Current Assets
+ LT Receivables
+ Net Fixed Assets
+ Investment properties

2011

2012

2013F

2014F

668
0
2,178
1,003
65
3,915
0

1,068

0
3,117
788
106
5,079
0

1,165
0
4,095
1,152
124
6,537
0

2,073
0
4,192
1,157
126
7,548
0

14,105

13,318

15,018

15,507

0

0

0

0

310

458

458

458

+ Goodwill
+ Other LT Assets
Total Long-Term Assets

2
204
14,620

2
227
14,005

2

225
15,703

2
227
16,195

Total Assets

18,535

19,084

22,240

23,742

+ Current Liabilities
In which: short-term debt
+ Non-current Liabilities
In which: long-term debt
Total Liabilities
+ Contributed capital
+ Share premium
+ Retained earnings
+ Other capital/fund
Owners' Equity
NCI
Total Liabilities & Equity

5,039
2,050
7,078
5,852
12,117
2,105
1,382
1,382
1,529
6,399
20
18,535

5,691
1,941
6,376
4,868
12,066
2,105
1,382
2,030
1,475
6,992
25
19,084

6,323
2,284
6,840
4,961

13,163
2,756
1,382
3,011
1,756
8,905
173
22,240

6,025
2,202
7,108
5,214
13,133
2,756
1,382
4,105
2,045
10,288
321
23,742

Cash Flow
CF from operating activities
CF from investing activities
CF from financing activities
Net increase in cash
Beginning cash
Ending cash

2,342
-2,693
75
-276
855
668

2,218
-412
-1,406
400
668
1,068

2,274
-3,003
827
98
1,068
1,165

2,936
-1,922
-106
907
1,165
2,073

0.78
0.56

0.13
2.97
5.60
75.74
90.82
34.33

0.89
0.74
0.19
2.14
6.62
75.89
82.50
35.35

1.03
0.83
0.18
1.53
8.04
84.19
71.76
30.68

1.25
1.04
0.34
1.36
8.44

93.81
71.02
36.37

0.35
0.65
1.89
1.23
0.32

0.37
0.63
1.73
0.97
0.28

0.40
0.59
1.48
0.81
0.26

0.43
0.55
1.28
0.72
0.21

+ LT Investments

Liquidity Ratios
Current ratio
Acid-test ratio
Cash ratio
Net debt / EBITDA
Interest coverage
Days of receivables
Days of payables
Days of inventory
Capital Structure
Equity/Total asset
Liabilities/Total Assets
Liabilities/Equity
Debt/Equity
ST Debt/Equity

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2011

2012

2013F

2014F

9,211
-7,153
2,057
152

-447
-31
-557

11,929
-9,247
2,683
54
-420
-38
-752

14,919
-11,538
3,381
75
-423
-48
-917

15,271
-11,587
3,684
79
-431
-49
-939

1,174

1,526

2,068

2,344

-17

110

15

15

72

61

161

67

1,229
1,073
6

1,697
1,448
126

2,243
1,918
148

2,427
2,077
148

1,067

1,322

1,770

1,929

Basic EPS (VND)
BPVS (VND)
Dividend (VND/share)
EBIT
EBITDA

5,088
30,307
1,500
1,497
2,207

6,290
33,380

1,000
1,999
3,030

7,066
35,695
1,000
2,562
3,866

7,701
41,241
1,000
2,753
4,186

Growth
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
NI
Equity
Chartered Capital
Total assets

21.6%
13.7%
12.4%
21.1%
20.4%

0.0%
26.6%

29.5%
37.3%
33.6%
35.0%
9.3%
0.0%
3.0%

25.1%
27.6%
28.2%
32.5%
27.4%
30.9%
16.5%

2.4%
8.3%
7.4%
8.3%
15.5%
0.0%
6.8%

6.5
1.1
0.8

4.5%
6.4
1.5

6.0
1.1
0.7
2.7%
4.5
1.1

7.5
1.5
0.7
1.9%
4.3
1.1

6.9
1.3
0.7
1.9%
3.9
1.1

22.3%
15.2%
11.6%
0.3%
6.1%

6.5%
18.3%
9.9%

22.5%
15.1%
12.1%
0.3%
6.3%
7.7%
21.6%
12.2%

22.7%
15.7%
12.9%
0.3%
6.2%
9.3%
24.1%
14.6%

24.1%
17.2%
13.6%
0.3%
6.2%
9.0%
21.6%
13.9%

VND Billion
Income Statement
Net Sales
COGS
Gross Profit
Financial Income
Financial Expense
Selling Expense
Admin Expense
Income from
business operation
Net Other Income
Income from
associates
Profit Before Tax
Net Income
Minority interest
NI attributable to
shareholders

Valuation
PER
PBR
P/Sales
Dividend yield
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin

Operating Margin
Net Margin
Selling exp./Net sales
Admin exp./Net sales
ROA
ROE
ROIC

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6


QUARTERLY EARNINGS UPDATE – 1Q13

Date: June.2013

APPENDIX 2: QUARTELY FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
VND Billion
Balance Sheet

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

+ Cash & Cash equivalent

+ Short-term investments
+ Account receivables
+ Inventories
+ Other current assets
Total Current Assets

910
0
1,992
833
49
3,785

888
0
2,798
915
112
4,714

1,105
0
3,514
926
103
5,648

1,068
0
3,117

788
106
5,079

0

0

0

0

+ Net Fixed Assets
+ Investment properties
+ LT Investments
+ Goodwill
+ Other LT Assets
Total Long-Term Assets

13,983
0
373
2
174
14,533

13,823
0
414
2

189
14,427

13,508
0
515
2
251
14,275

13,318
0
458
2
227
14,005

Total Assets

18,318

19,141

19,923

4,493

5,259

1,689

7,226
5,852
11,719

+ LT Receivables

+ Current Liabilities
In which: short-term
debt
+ Non-current Liabilities
In which: long-term debt
Total Liabilities
+ Contributed capital
+ Share premium
+ Retained earnings
+ Other capital/fund
Owners' Equity
NCI
Total Liabilities & Equity

1Q12

VND Billion
Income Statement
Net Sales

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

2,360

2,635

3,329

3,606

-1,724
636

-2,006
629

-2,637
692

-2,880
725

Financial Income
Financial Expense
Selling Expense
Admin Expense
Income from business
operation

13

-93
-3
-111

20
-111
-6
-235

13
-93
-8
-195

7
-123
-21
-211

442

298

409

377

Net Other Income
Income from associates
Profit Before Tax

Net Income

2
4
449
380

6
24
329
287

64
113
587
523

38
-81
334
257

COGS
Gross Profit

10

44

31

41

19,084

Minority interest
NI attributable to
shareholders

370

243

492

217

5,567

5,691

Basic EPS (VND)

1,768

1,144

2,340

1,038

2,330
7,048
5,587
12,306

1,859
7,073
5,845
12,640

1,941
6,376
4,868
12,066

31,250
520
727

32,355
417
653

34,481
660
953

33,215
403

697

2,105
1,382
1,657
1,434
6,578

2,105
1,382
1,879
1,445
6,811

2,105
1,382
2,301
1,470
7,259

2,105
1,382
2,030
1,475
6,992

21
18,318

23

19,141

24
19,923

25
19,084

16.2%
26.5%
27.4%
28.7%
19.2%
0.0%
19.2%

24.3%
24.7%
22.8%
24.5%
19.4%
0.0%
23.9%

39.8%
60.9%
59.3%
65.0%
21.7%
0.0%

22.8%

34.6%
35.1%
20.1%
12.1%
13.1%
0.0%
3.6%

198
405
-361
241

580
-974
375
-19

355
359
-496
218

1,085
-202
-924
-41

668
910

910
888

888
1,105

1,105
1,068

27.0%
21.5%
16.1%
0.1%
4.7%

23.9%
14.3%
10.9%
0.2%
8.9%

20.8%
14.3%
15.7%
0.2%
5.8%

20.1%
12.2%
7.1%
0.6%
5.9%

0.84
0.65
0.20
9.12
7.32

0.90
0.70
0.17
10.76
4.72

1.01
0.83
0.20
6.92
9.03

0.89
0.74
0.19
8.24
5.79

0.36
0.64
1.78
1.15
0.26

0.36
0.64
1.81
1.16
0.34

0.36
0.63
1.74
1.06
0.26

0.37
0.63
1.73
0.97
0.28

BPVS (VND)
EBIT
EBITDA
Growth (YoY)
Sales
EBITDA

EBIT
NI
Equity
Chartered Capital
Total assets

Cash Flow
CF from operating activities
CF from investing activities
CF from financing activities
Net increase in cash
Beginning cash
Ending cash
Liquidity Ratios
Current ratio
Acid-test ratio
Cash ratio
Net debt / EBITDA
Interest coverage

Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Net Margin
Selling exp./Net sales
Admin exp./Net sales
Capital Structure
Equity/Total asset
Liabilities/Total Assets
Liabilities/Equity

Debt/Equity
ST Debt/Equity

Source: Company data, SSI estimates

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7


QUARTERLY EARNINGS UPDATE – 1Q13

Date: June.2013

1. RATING
Within 12-month horizon, SSIResearch rates stocks as either BUY, HOLD or SELL determined by the stock’s
expected return relative to the market required rate of return, which is 16% (*). A BUY rating is given when the
security is expected to deliver absolute returns of 16% or greater. A SELL rating is given when the security is
expected to deliver returns below or equal to negative - 8%, while a HOLD rating implies returns between negative
- 8% and 16%.
Besides, SSIResearch also provides Short-term rating where stock price is expected to rise/reduce within three
months because of a stock catalyst or event. Short-term rating may be different from 12-month rating.
Industry Rating: We provide the analyst’ industry rating as follows:


Overweight: The analyst expects the performance of the industry over the next 6-12 months to be attractive vs.
the relevant broad market



Neutral: The analyst expects the performance of the industry over the next 6-12 months to be in line with the
relevant broad market



Underweight: The analyst expects the performance of the industry over the next 6-12 months with caution vs.
the relevant broad market.

*The market required rate of return is calculated based on 1-year Vietnam government bond yield and market risk premium derived
from using Relative Equity Market Standard Deviations method. Our rating bands are subject to changes at the time of any significant
changes in the above two constituents.

2. DISCLAIMER
The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained herein, including any expression of opinion, are
based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy completeness or correctness are not guaranteed.
Expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration and they were based upon the
best information then known to us, and in our opinion are fair and reasonable in the circumstances prevailing at the
time. Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and
should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. SSI and other
companies in the SSI and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions and may affect
transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment
banking services for these companies.
This document is for private circulation only and is not for publication in the press or elsewhere. SSI accepts no
liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The
use of any information, statements forecasts and projections contained herein shall be at the sole discretion and
risk of the user.

3. CONTACT INFORMATION

Phuong Hoang

Director, Institutional Research & Investment Advisory

Thuy Nguyen

Research Analyst, Oil & Gas, Fertilizer

WWW.SSI.COM.VN

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INC.
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Minh Stock Exchange,
Regulated
by the State Securities
Commission




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