Ảnh hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu đến ngập lụt ở đồng bằng sông Cửu Long

trinh ddng chiy t^i
Kratie cic thdi iii', i
128,6
342,6
498,3

B2_2040 B2_20S0
(F7)
(F8)
59077
90.117

111,0
283,6
432,4

127.2
347,5

118,3
302,9

493,9

500,8

Ket qua tanh gii anh hudng cua BBKH 64n ng$p li/t
vung BBSCL

Ddi vdi vung DBSCL, hang nam trong mua lu, iu Igt

lam ngap g&n khoang 1,9 trieu ha, thudng keo dai 3-5
thang gay thiet hai dang ke den con ngUdi va kinh te - xa
hdi. Tuy nhien, iu iut cung mang lai phu sa iam mau md
dat dai, lam phong phu ngudn thuy san, thi!iy sinh va thau
Hinh 3: qua trinh ddng chiy tai chua ri!ra man cho ddng rupng. Ket qua nghien cdu cho
Kratie cac thdi ky, kich bin B2thay, vdi cac tran iu idn giOa the k^ XXI theo cac kjcti
ban ket hdp vdi muc nudc bien d i n g 30 cm Ihi dien ticli
ngap khoang 2.700.000 ha (tang 25-37% so vdi diin lich
ngap thdi ky nen), chiem k h e i n g 60-67% toan bp dien
ticli tu nhidn cua DBSCL (hinh 7). Cac khu viJc bi ngip
idn hdn 0,5 m vao khoang 1.542.000 ha (chiem 40% diSn
tfch DBSCL), tang khoang 250.000 ha so vdi thdi ky nen
(hinh 8). Cu the:

Dieu kien bien tai
cac CLia song viing
DBSCL Orng vdi cac
lm6 ph6ng di/a tren
CO sS kich ban BDKH
va nadc bien dang do
Bp Tai nguyen va Moi
trudng cong bo nam
2012. Khi muc nudc
bien dang lam thay ddi
Hinh 4: sa do tinh loan
dac trung cua cac sdng
lao trieu, dudng bd bj^thay ddi d i n tdi dao dong muc nddc
bien cung bi thay ddi theo. C(ng vdi mdi kich ban nudc
bien dang cho dSi ven bd Viet Nam, nghien cUu nay da sCr

dung md hinh ADCIRC cua Hoa Ky de tinh toan dao dong
mUc nudc tai cac diem ven bd nham dua ra mot each (Jinh
iupng du bao muc nudc bien trong tuong iai. Qua trinh
mua tren 6 rupng tai vung DBSCL va vung thuong iuu Ung
vdl c i c kich b i n dUdc xac dinh ia qua trinh mua cCia nam
2000. Tien hanh ket hop cac tran iu dupc iua chpn va muc
nudc bjen trong tUng thdi ky dupc ticti hop vao md hinh
iSIS de mo phong che dp thOy iuc cho dpng bang Cac
b i n dd ngap ipt (dai dien hinh 5, 6) da dUPc xay dung dua
trdn cac kel quJ md phdng va ban dd dia hinh (Bp Tai
nguydn va Mdi trudng xay dung nam 2009). Bd md'hlnh
ISIS trong nghien cUu nay ia su ke IhUa cua ijy'ban sdng
MS Cdng Viet Nam va Vien Khoa hoc Khi tuong Thuv van
v4 BDKH (hinh 4).
' "
'

54

Hinh 5- ban dd ngap Inch bin nen Hinh 6: ban do ngip kich ban

TapcHRHMHqi Sfi Ifinsm 501.1

+ Khi muc nudc bien dang ien khoang 9-15 cm Ung vdi
phuang an F I , F2 (bang 5,6) va F5, F6 (bang 9,10), long
dien tich dat ndng nghiep 2 vu, dat 3 vu, dat thd cU va xay
dung ngap tang khpang 250.000-315.000 ha, tUdng iJng
tang khoang 14-16% so vdi thdi ky nen (thdi ky nen ngSp
khoang 1.809.313 ha). Dien tfch ngap Ung vdi dd sau >0,5
m ia 1.200.000-1.329.000 ha, tang 78.000-109.000 ha

(tuong Ung tang k h o i n g 2-9%). Dien tich ngap Ung vdi dd
sau >1 m i i 960.000-980.000 ha, tang 60.000-75.000 ha
(tUdng Ung tang khoing tU 6-8%,).
+ Khi muc nudc bien dang len k h o i n g 20-30 cm iJng
vdi piiuong an F3, F4 (bang 7, 8) va F7, F8 (bang 11,
12), tdng dien tfch dat ndng nghiep 2 vu, d i t 3 vu, datthS
cu va xay dung ngap tang k h o i n g 400.000-630.000 ha,
tuong Ung tang khaang 22-35% so vdi thdi k^ nen. Difn
tfch ngap Ung vdi dp sau >0,5 m la 1.310.000-1.460.000
ha, tang 165.000-243.000 ha (IUdng Ung tang khoing W
14-20%). Dien tfch ngap Ung vdi dd s i u >1 m i i 960.0001016.000 ha, tang 72.000-114.000 ha (tuong Ung ting
khpinge-13%).


NGHieNCCfU-TRfiOBOl

Bing 10: diin tich ngip Ong vdi cac mOc ngap khic nhau, phOdng in F6

Mt* Oell nslii Img c«e t M kt

PJjntidbiiiripliftfliEAieT^ciciirfcnEipmcelBnflii)

I.

f

Imm

.<*"

•.-^
""

BE::
-

Hinh 7: di^n tich n

• • » • " - "

E)atiioDgn^ep3vii
j

p cic thdi ky ^ ' " ^ S' d'^n ^^h ngip vdng DBSCL
Ong vdi mOc ngip >0,5 m cic thdi ky

Bing 4: di^n tk± ngip Ong vdi cac mOc ngap khic nhau, phUdng in nin

385.119

tho cit va lay dllng

77056

Bing 11: dien tkh ngip Ong vdi cic mOc ngip khic nhau, phOdng in F7
Di^D tich bi iij>£p hfifDj; lliij; nil cat mdc DEfp kbaCDbaa (In)

Di$n tich bj ntlp tddttg dng ldi d c mft DgSp khac nhan (ha)

LaiiHl

Loai^t

»*

NltP

>»,2Sii

>Mi»

iftlS"

DI'tn6Deaelii$p3vii

501628

354862

266,607

208,757

155.677

123970

104024

Dat nong nghiep 3 vu

Dil Dfing nghiep 2 vu

858,616

755,293

691.580

632.300

581.959

526593

448534

DalD6DgD^ep2vu

Qllth£cifvJl);3ydirDg

288,877

214,189

172,466

144.619

121614

104913

S90O6

£IB

>I,25ii

92.756

Bat noDg nghiep 2 vn

>i,5B

£0,15DI

>t^ni

>t,T3ai

fin

>]4Jm

627.3M 411940 330563 241440 179 J06 134.714

it^m
110.637

1049.132 839.209 743.233 670190 607.118 555.369 482,502

Dat Iho cava Kay dang

380.755 274.982 202.408 161.199 131169 111.901

95.344

B^ng 5: di§n Uch ngap Ong vdi cic mOc ngip khic nhau, phUdng in FI
B^ng 12: dien tich ngip Ong vdi cac mOc ngap khic nhau, phddng in F8
IH^ntKhtqn

LotiJi'l

>IUSiii

Jp tilling ihig ldi cac mdc ngSp Idiac nhan (ha|
2 0^19

Di^n ticb bi njSp liMaj itng vji cac mitc ngSp Uac nbaii (ba)

>lm

>lJ3iii

>Um

DllDflngDehi^pSvu

581.086

421660

303002

231072

176033

134370

111933

Dit nang Debi^p2vu

951564

795716

730126

668485

611420

559 W3

488582

DataDDgQgtuep3va

655.971

526.102 361724

262247

194103

143.863

114.757

DliihllcirvadydiAig

338.705

245,438

191,365

157.400

132590

112,366

96670

Dat aona nghiep 2 vu

1112.487

812.474 762.465

mm 621887

556762

480.815

17D627 139.349

115.767

96.848

NESP

> 0,T5m

Loai dat
Njip

Datdioalvnaydtmg

407,983

>0,25ni

>0,5ni >l,7Sm

299775 217110

>lni

> 1,251 >]fm

Sing 6. di$n tich ng$p Ong vdi cic mOc ng$p khic nhau. phOdng in F2
Difn (fch bi nglp tifLo^liU't

mv

£0,2Siii

£0,fni

£0,75ni

>liii

njSm

Kat luan

2l,Sin

Di'in6ngnghi^p3vii

572.869 398121 266382 189.621 135.950 107734

Bi'inOnEngln^pZvu

966.920 772 757 668007 586.413 515.688 434 329 354,832

DllthJcirv^ily difng

338.433 231.428 167.393 130985 106 753

38198

88,529

70.670

Bai bao da trinh bay mot phan lcue d^ tai "Nghien culu danh gia ^nh hiidng cua BDKH d^n
Sl/ bien doi tai nguyen nii6c DBSCL", ma so BDKH-08, thu6c
Chaong trinh KH&CN phuc vu Chi/dng trinh mgc tieu quoc

gia U'ng pho vdi BDKH (KHCN-BOKH/11-15). Trong b^i b^o
Bing 7: di$n tich ngap Ong vdi cic mOc ngip khac nhau, phUdng in F3
da de cap den mpt trong nhflng khia c?nh knh hadng d^n
moi trfldng song noi chung va ^nh hfldng den phat trien kinh

Di^D tich bi ng^p lifctng itng vdi cac mitc ngSp khac nhau |ha)
Lo^ldfCt
Mf

iOJSm

i(l,5m

iO.Ilm

>liii

ilJ5lB

te - xa hpi, quy hoach di dan vung DBSCL ndi rieng. Ket quS

£l,Sm

9a'inflnenghi?p3vu

610.613 448.576 304.251 226 350 167.603

127 719 105,478

DS'in6n£nghl^p2vii

1025 501 816.503 716.202 644,813 591333

528486 442150

DliUiforvJUydiltig

369.088 259.750 190507 155.593 128.421

107.523

88 359

Bing 8- di$n tich ng$p Ong vdi cic mOc ngip khac nhau. phUdng in F4

Lo^idl't

Dllnfln6nghi?p2v;i
D i l thil c U v i i f i y ddng

dat thd cfl va dat xay di,/ng d DBSCL. Ket q u i se la mpt trong
nhflng cd sd de co nhij'ng hoach dinh thich hpp trong tiidng
lai ve cac van de quy hoach phat then viing, quy ho^ch phat
trien kinh te - xa hpi cua vung DBSCL s::

D i f n ti'ch bi n g f p tiMng i k g v ^ cac mile ng^p khac nhau (hai

D l i nSng nghidp 3 vu

nghien cflu da danh gia dfldc dien tich ngap d vung DBSCL
flng vdi cac cac l(ich biin BDKH khac ntiau va danh gi^ dfldc
^nh hfldng cija ngap tut den dat nong nghiep 2 vy, dat 3 vu,

mr

sO,2Sni

> 0,511

iOJSin

>iiii

iiHim

iUm

651.245

530.182

355.597

247.373

176.583

129.254

I03.3OS

Tai lieu Ifiam kiiao

1.132.830

895084

750,301

659285

587 235

519622

433 172

415 308

303,444

212,108

160.913

128 048

105 787

86 322

11] Quyet dinh so 1397/QO-TTg ngay 25,9,2012 cua Thii Udng Ctilnh phu
phe duyel quy ho^ch Ihuy liji DBSCL giai doan 2012-2020 vi dinh hUdng dfin
nam 2050 Irong dieu ki6n BDKH va nUdc bien dang.

Bdng 9: di$n tth ngip Ong vdi cic mOc ngip khic nhau. phUOng in F5
Di^ntichbinEl p lildDj! ihiR vdi cacmitc ngap kbac DIUI] (bai
Lofllil

iO-'m ' jO-'Jai ' i l f f l

Nllp

iVSm

Dflndag11gllj^p3vu

578.907

mm

EtftllADgaglli$p2vij

94!.7« 792.852 726215 661.430 6(U;:i

^tlSa

ilia

2)86931227.427 172.774 132233 1090S4

,

[2] PGS.TS Tran Hong ThSi, de tai cap nha nUdc "Nghien CLIU inh hu6ng
cua BDKH den s^f bien doi tai nguygn nudc DBSCL' nSm 2013.
[3]VienOuyhogchthuy ldi mien Nam, Oy an'Quy hogeh ting th^ thuy IQi
DBSCL tfong dieu kien 8DKH • nudc biln dSng" nSm 2010
[4] PGS.TS Ng6 Trpng ThuSn, Tuyin ISp b^o cdo hfy \t\ko khoa hpc \in
Ihil 10 - Vien Khoa hpc Khi tUdng Thiiy vdn va Mdi trudng, "Dong chSy mua

cgn d DBSCL".

5.56291 4S4545

DtftlMofvaiSydlftlg 33US9 241243 IIS 918 154949 1.10241 110710, 91.840

S6 1 6 n a m 2 0 1 4

55