Phản ứng chính sách của ASEAN trước sự biến động địa chính trị Đông á trong thập niên đầu thế kỷ XXI

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<b>PHAN UNG CHINH SACH CUA ASEAN </b>

<b>TRU6C sy BIEN OONG OJA CHINH TRJ OONG A </b>

<i><b>TRONG THAP NIEN OAU THE K'^ XXI </b></i>

NGUYEN THU MY*

S

U ndi len nhanh chdng ciia Trung
Qud'c cflng vdi sU suy giim tUdng
ddl vj the ciia My va Nhat Ban tai Ddng A
va gia tang canh tranh chien lUdc My
-Trung, Trung - Nhat trdng thap nien diu
the ky XXI tae ra khdng it bdi rdi ddl vdi
ASEAN va cac nude thanh vien trong
thich Ung vdi cac cac van de tren. De tiep
tuc tdn tai va khang djnh minh nhu mdt
thiic the cd vai trd quan trong trong cac
van de khu viic, ASEAN hdn lflc nae bet
dang nd lflc md rpng quan he ddl tac va
thfle hien c i n bang chien lUdc trdng quan
he vdi cac nudc ldn, tang cUdng sflc de
khang ciia minh bang thanh lap Cdng
ddng ASEAN cung nhfl vai trd chii dad
cua minh trdng cac tie'n trinh hdp tac
Ddng A.

1. T h u c d a y h d p t a c d a phifdng va thiic
hien c h i e n lifdc c a n b a n g t r o n g q u a n
<i>he vdi c a c nxidc ldn </i>

<i>a) Tdng cUdng quan he vdi Trung </i>

<i>Qud'c bdng thiet lap FTA vd xdy dUng </i>
<i>quan he ddi tdc chien lucfc </i>

Cac nflde treng khu vUc nhan thUc sau
sic ring, Trung Que'c la mpt cudng qudc

chau A dang trdi day, lai la lang gieng
trUc tiep cua ASEAN. Cac van de ciia
chau A se khdng the giai quyet dupc, ne'u
khdng cd sii tham gia ciia nude nay. Chinh
vi vay, ngay tfl nhflng nam 90 cua the ky
trudc, ASEAN da bean nghenh viec Trung
Que'c tham gia ARF va cflng vdi cac nUdc
khac nhu Nhat Ban, Han Qud'c... lap nen
cac cd che hdp tac da phUdng mdi tai Ddng
A nhu ASEAN+3, ASEAN+1...

Cflng vdi nhflng hdat dpng tren,
ASEAN cdn hfldng flng kha tich cUc
nhflng sang kien hdp tac sdng phUdng dd
Trung Qud'c dUa ra, nhat la viec hinh
thanh Khu mau djch tii dd
ASEAN-Trung Qud'c (ACFTA) (ky thang 11/2002
va chinh thfle hdat ddng vdi ASEAN -6 tfl
01/01/2010). Ly dd khdng chi ve kinh te
nhu md rdng thj trUdng vdi 1,3 ty dan, ma
quan trpng khdng kem la tad ra cfl bfch de
cac ddl tac quan trpng hang diu ciia
ASEAN nhfl My, Nhat Ban cflng thie't lap
cac FTA seng phUdng.

Tfl khi ACFTA dflpc ky ke't, ASEAN va
Trung Qud'c bat dau nang cap quan he len
<i>do'i tdc chien lUdc. Viec chuyen giai dean </i>
nay dfldc the hien bang Tuyen bd' chung

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28 <i>Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010 </i>

ve Q u a n he ddl tac chien lUdc A S E A N
-T r u n g Que'c va ky -TAC (11/2003). De xay
d u n g Q u a n he ddl tac chien lUdc A S E A N
-T r u n g Qud'c, h a i b e n da t h d n g q u a
ChUdng t r i n h h a n h d d n g vad t h a n g
11/2004, t r o n g dd nha'n m a n h quyet t a m
dua ACFTA t h a n h h i e n thUc vae n a m
2010 ddl vdi A S E A N - 6 .

T h a y vi h o a n hi vdi viec dupe cat giam
t h u e khi x u a t k h a u h a n g hda vao thi
t r u d n g T r u n g Qud'c, cac nUde A S E A N b e t
sflc lo ngai bdi sU t r a n n g a p h a n g hda gia
re cua T r u n g Qudc. Bp t r u d n g ThUdng m a i
Inddnexia S u l e m a n H i d a y a t t h d n g bao
ehinh p h u I n d d n e x i a se de ngM len b a n
lanh dao ASEAN h o a n viec cat g i i m t h u e
n h a p k h a u ddng thdi mud'n " d a m p h a n lai
de h a n g hda n h a p k h a u re k h d n g t r a n vao
lam lut thi trUdng m a k h d n g bj n g a n
c h a n " ' " . Cac n h a d o a n h n g h i e p M a l a i x i a
cflng lo ngai ve t i n h t r a n g t r e n . Theo dng

T a n Sri William C h e n g , C h u tjch P h d n g
thUdng m a i va Cdng n g h i e p ngudi Hda
Malaixia, neu cac v a n de t r e n k h d n g dupe
g i i i quyet thi ACFTA se "cd n h i e u dieu
c i n trd hdn la t h u a n Idi"'^'. Tai T h a i L a n ,
cac n h a s i n x u a t da cdng k h a i len tie'ng ve
sii b a t lUc ciia hp t r o n g viec ddl d a u vdi gia
c i cua T r u n g Qud'c...

Viec mpt so' nUdc t h a n h vien ASEAN
mud'n xem xet lai ACFTA khie'n T r u n g
Qud'c bdi rdi . Bdi vi, neu dieu nay x i y r a
se lam p h u d n g h a i k h d n g chi tdi lpi fch
kinh te cua T r u n g Qud'c d Ddng N a m A
m a cdn lam g i i m a n h hUdng chinh trj cua
hp tai k h u viic nay; Bdi vi, k h i dUa r a s a n g
k i e n CAFTA, T r u n g Qud'c k h d n g chi
n h a m t a o t h u a n ldi che h a n g hda cua hp
<b>tiep can thj trUdng A S E A N m a cen mud'n </b>
CAFTA la h a t n h a n ciia K h u vUc m a u
djch t u do Ddng A t r o n g tUdng lai. De l a m
yen long cac qud'c gia Dong N a m A, thdi

gian g i n day, T r u n g Quo'c d a va d a n g tien
h a n h mpt loat h o a t dpng k i n h te va ngoai
giao n h a m tiep t u c thfle day q u a n he cita
hp vdi cac nUde ASEAN''^'. T u y nhien,
nhflng no' life mdi ciia T r u n g Qud'c dang
gap p h i i n h i e u t h a c h thfle, k h d n g chi bdi
sfl t r a n n g a p h a n g gia r e ciia T r u n g Qud'c,

m a cdn sfl gia t a n g c a n dii cua cac ddl tac
ldn k h a c , nha't la My. C h i n h nhflng dieu ly
g i i i t r e n gdp p h i n g i i i thich vi sao, quan
he A S E A N - T r u n g Qud'c tfl mdt hai nam
trd lai day cd ve giam c h a n tai chd.

<i><b>h) Tdng cudng Quan he ddi tdc vd </b></i>
<i><b>tien tdi quan he chien lUcfc vdi My </b></i>

Mac dfl k h d n g h a i long vdi sfl "ldi la",
thie'u re r a n g t r o n g chfnh s a c h ciia My ddl
vdi Ddng N a m A t r o n g b a i t h a p nien qua,
nhUng A S E A N va cac nUdc t h a n h vien
ludn coi t r p n g yeu to' My va tim mpi each
t a n g cudng q u a n h e vdi sieu cUdng nay;
Bdi vi My k h d n g chi la sieu cUdng cd the
vUdt trpi t r e n ta't ca cac m a t , nha't la ve
q u a n sU, cd ldi fch ldn t a i k h u vUc nay va
la b a n h a n g , ddng m i n h t r u y e n thd'ng ciia
n h i e u nUdc A S E A N . T r o n g so' cac lpi ich
cua My, t h i viec d a m bao a n ninh, tii do
h a n h dpng ciia h p t r e n bien, t r o n g dd cd
bien Ddng, cho'ng c h u n g h i a khiing bd
dupc My q u a n t a m n h i e u hdn. Hdn the
nfla day la k h u vflc cd vi trf chien Ifldc
t r o n g p h d n g t h u q u a n sfl. Ne'u nhfl cac
q u i n d i o T r u d n g Sa m a T r u n g Qud'c
chie'm gifl h o a n t o a n , ldi t h e kiem seat
k h u viic se n g h i e n g ve T r u n g Qud'c.

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<i>Nguyen Thu My - Phdn iing chinh sdch ciia ASEAN tntdc sii hien ddn^ </i> 29

My d bien Ddng, p h a n ddl de xua't cua My
vc cat giam khi t h a i va c h u a t a n g gia ddng
npi te cua minh... da lam cho My khd ehui.
Dieu nay k h d n g chi thdi thfle My t a n g
cUdng chfnh sach c a n du, kim che T r u n g
Qudc b a n g md rpng q u a n he vdi cac nUdc
nUdc Ddng N a m A, q u y e t djnh b a n vfl k h i
cho Dai Loan va thfle day hdp tac vdi
ASEAN, an Dp.... Dieu nay chflng td My
dang mud'n md rdng "vanh dai sat" keo dai
tfl Ddng Bac A ven bien den Ddng N a m A,
trong dd k h u vUc bien Ddng la chd yeu,
nhUng m a n g t a m chien lupc cua My tai
khu vUc nay.

C i n luu y r i n g . My da cd y djnh t a n g
mUc dp can dii vae Ddng N a m A de kim
che sii t a n g n h a n h i n h hudng ciia T r u n g
Qudc ke tfl khi G. B u s h len c i m quyen.
NhUng do d a n h Uu tien cho cudc chien
ehd'ng k h u n g bd'va gianh Uu the kiem soat
dja chinh trj tU k h u viic T r u n g A den Bac
Kavkaz va thiic hien each m a n g m a u d
khdng gian h a u Xd Viet nen cd p h i n lam
cham lai tien t r i n h t r e n . Ngay tfl thdi dd,
My da mifdn cudc chien che'ng khiing bd',
dua q u a n trd lai Philippin va t a n g cudng
hdp tac chinh tri, a n n i n h vdi nhieu nUdc

Deng N a m A. T h e nhUng, chi tfl nifa sau
t h a p nien d i u t h e ' k y XXI, khi T r u n g Qud'c
gia t a n g a n h h u d n g k h a n h a n h tai k h u
vUc nay. My mdi t h e hien tUdng ddl rd
r a n g ve sU can thie't gia t a n g hdp tac vdi
ASEAN va cac nUdc t h a n h , ke ca nhflng
nude k h d n g p h a i la d d n g m i n h n h u
Inddnexia va del thii cfl n h u Viet Nam''''.
Tuy nhien My v a n cdn k h a de dat, chU yeu
tie'p can cai t h i e n q u a n he sdng phUdng
vdi tflng nude. Cho tdi mdt hai n a m trd lai
day. My mdi thiic sii tie'n h a n h ddng bd,
cflng Iflc t h u c day ca q u a n he vdi ASEAN
va cac nflde t h a n h vien..

Nhflng dieu chinh mdi trong chfnh sach

ciia My ddl vdi Ddng N a m A da dupe
ASEAN n h i e t liet b e a n nghenh. Day la
budc md dau mdi cho q u a n he ASEAN-My
trong t h a p nien tiep theo cua the ky XXI.
Cu the ASEAN da cflng My ky Tuyen bd
"Tam nhin ve q u a n he ddl tae t a n g eUdng
ASEAN- My" (2005). De t n e n khai xay
dung Q u a n he ddl tac t a n g cUdng, ASEAN
da cflng My td chfle leng trpng 30 thiet lap
q u a n he del tac va ky "Ke beach h a n h
ddng vi Q u a n he ddl tac t a n g cUdng"
(2006). Tie'p dd, vao 8/2006, ASEAN va My
ky Hiep djnh k h u n g ve m a u djch va dau t u

ASEAN - My. Mdt iiy b a n c h u n g da dupc
thiet lap de chi dae viec thiic hien TIFA.

Dinh cad cua q u a n he ASEAN- My
t r e n g t h a p nien d i u t h e ky XXI, ngdai viec
ky TAC (7/2009) la l i n d i u tien d i i n ra
Hdi nghj gifla 10 nguyen thil ASEAN va
Tdng thd'ng My O b a m a vad t h a n g 11/2009
ben le Hdi nghi A P E C . Mdt Tuyen bd
chung da dUa ra, trong dd nha'n m a n h cam
ket ciia hai ben t a n g cUdng hdp tac vd
n h a u trdng cac linh viic t r a e ddi giad due,
khoa hpc cdng nghe, lao ddng, hdp tac p h a t
trien hpp tac che'ng chii nghia k h u n g bd'
qud'c te, t h u hep k h o a n g each p h a t trien,
khdng phd bien vfl k h i h a t n h a n , giai trfl
q u a n bj , nghien cflu ve nhflng tac ddng
ciia bien ddi khi h a u , trien k h a i thfle hien
cac chinh sach va cac bien p h a p thich hpp.
Ngoai cac ndi d u n g t r e n , tuyen bd' k h i n g
djnh cudc hpp T h u p n g dinh ASEAN - My
l i n t h u hai se dUpc td chfle vao n a m 2010.
Dieu nay cd nghia la tie'n t r i n h Thupng
dinh ASEAN- My se dupc the che hda. Cd
the trong mpt vai n a m tdi, hai ddl tac nay
se tiens tdi thie't lap mpt FTA chung. Khi
dd chien lUdc can b a n g gifla cac nUdc ldn
cua ASEAN se t h a n h cdng.

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<b>30 </b> <i>Nghien cdu Ddng Nam A 4/2010 </i>

Do ngay cang cd nhieu lpi ich song

trflng ca trUdc mat cflng nhu lau dai,
trong thap nien qua, ASEAN da hUdng
Ung h i u nhu tdan bd cac sang kien, nd lUc
mdi ciia Nhat B i n treng thfle day hdp tac
vdi khu vUc. Budc phat trien mdi trong
quan he gifla hai thiic the nay la viec
thdng qua "Tuyen bd' chung ve Quan he
ddi tac kinh te toan dien ASEAN - Nhat
Ban (AJCEP)" vao nam 2002 tai Phnom
Penh. De tflng budc hien thiic boa Tuyen
bd'tren, hai ben ky tiep "Khudn khd Quan
he ddl tac kinh te toan dien gifla
ASEAN-Nhat Bin" (2003 tai Bali). Trong khudn
khd AJCEP, chi'nh phii Nhat Ban cam ke't
Ap dung quy che Tdi hue qud'c cho cac
nudc thanh vien ASEAN chUa p h i i la
thanh vien ciia WTO. AJCEP, bad gdm ca
cac yeu td' ciia mot khu vUc mau djch tU
do, se dupe hoan thanh vao nam 2012, cd
tinh tdi mUc dp phat trien kinh te va cac
linh viic nhay c i m d tflng nflde, trdng do
cho phep cac nUdc thanh vien mdi cd
them thdi ban 5 nam thiic thi cac nghia
vu cua minh.

Nham phat trien hdn nfla quan he gifla
hai ben, ngay 12/12/2003, tai Tokyo, Hdi
nghj Thupng dinh ASEAN - Nhat Ban ky

niem 30 nam ngay thiet lap quan he
ASEAN - Nhat Ban da dupc td ehflc. Hpi
nghi da ra "Tuyen bd' Tdkyd ve quan he
ddl tac nang dpng va ben vflng ASEAN
-Nhat Ban trong the ky XXI". Trong van
kien nay, hai ben chii trfldng thuc day
khdng chi hdp tac kinh te ma ca hpp tac
chinh trj - an ninh, khdng cbi hdp tac sdng
phUdng gifla hai ben ma cdn hpp tac treng
cac te ehflc hdp tac khu vflc va qud'c te, dac
biet la hdp tac Ddng A.

Ngoai viec thfle day quan he hdp tac
thfldng mai, dau tU, van hoa vdi ca khdi
ASEAN, Nhat B i n cdn dac biet quan tam

tdi viec giflp thu hep khoang each phat
trien gifla cac nflde thanh vien mdi cua
ASEAN vdi cac nflde thanh vien cfl, trong
dd chfl trpng hdn ddl vdi cac nUdc Ddng
Dudng. Dieu nay khdng chi b i t ngudn tfl
tiem nang to ldn, nha't la ve ngudn tai
nguyen thien nhien ehfla dflpc khai thac,
ngudn lao dpng re, sflc mua ciia thj trUdng
dang len ciia ASEAN, ma quan trpng
khdng kem la gdp phan quan trpng dim
bid lpi Ich chien lupc ciia Nhat trUdc sii
gia tang anh hudng ngay cang ldn cua
Trung Que'c tai tai khu vUc nay. Treng sd'
cac nUdc Ddng DUdng, Viet Nam dang trd

thanh mpt "md neo" chien lUdc mdi ciia
Nhat Ban, bdi vi Viet Nam nam sat con
dudng giao thdng hang h i i tren bien
Dong, con dfldng huye't mach van chuyen
ciia Nhat Ban.

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<i>Nguyen Thu My - Phdn ifng chinh sdch ciia ASEAN trUdc sit hie'n ddng... </i> 31

nUdc thudc ha luu sdng Me Cdng nhU Viet
Nam, Lao, Campuchia va Thai Lan hudng
Ung tich cUc sii gia tang hpp tac cua Nhat
Bin del vdi khu vUc.

Dieu dang chfl y la cac nha lanh dae
cac nude ha luu sdng Me Cdng va Nhat
Ban da thd'ng nha't td chfle Hdi nghj Cap
cao Me Cdng - Nhat B i n djnh ky 3 nam
mdt lin tai Nhat B i n va tai cac nudc tieu
vung sdng Me Cdng vao cac djp Hdi nghj
cap cao ASEAN. Ben canh dd, Hdi nghj Bp
trUdng Ngdai giao Me Cdng - Nhat Ban se
dupc td ehflc hang nam tai nflde thupc tieu
vflng sdng Me Cdng dang gifl ehflc Chu
tjch ASEAN, trong khi Hdi nghj Bp
trfldng Kinh te se dfldc td ehflc hang nam
nham thfle day hpp tac dfla tren sang kie'n
hdp tac Kinh te Cong nghiep Me Cdng
-Nhat Ban. Nam 2010, vdi tU each la nUdc
Chu tjch ASEAN, Viet Nam se d i m
nhiem viec td chfle Hpi nghj Cap cao Me

Cdng - Nhat Ban l i n 2.

Cung vdi cac boat dpng tren, cac nUdc
ASEAN cdn hoan nghenh viec hai quan
Nhat Ban tham gia vao t u i n tra chdng
cudp bien d vflng bien Ddng Nam, dien tap
quan sfl chung vdi nhieu nUdc ASEAN
nhu vdi Inddnexia, Malaixia, Xingapo va
Thai Lan. Cd quan hdp tac qud'c te cua
Nhat ( JIG A ) da va dang tai trd dao tao
ngudn nhan lUc cac cd quan cd tham
quyen ve bien d Ddng Nam A .

Ngoai 3 ddl tac chinh tren, trong thap
nien gin day, ASEAN con ehu trUdng
tang cUdng quan he vdi eae nflde ldn, thfle
the khac tren tean the gidi, trong dd cd An
Dp, Nga, EU, Han Qud'c, Australia...
Chien Ifldc "da cHa", tan dung cac cd hpi
de thfle hien can bang chien Ifldc nham
ciing cd' chu quyen qud'c gia-dan tpc va
thuc day hpi nhap khu vflc cflng nhfl nang

cao dja 'vj ciia minh tren trUdng qudc te
vfla la chien lupc, vfla la muc tieu xuyen
sud't cua ASEAN. Chien lupc tren dupc
rad riet tien hanh trong thap nien qua la
mpt trong nhflng phan flng kha kip thdi
ddl vdi sfl bien dpng dja chinh trj the gidi,
trudc het la d Ddng A, trUdc het la flng phd

vdi sfl trdi day ciia Trung Qud'c va gia tang
canh tranh chien lupc My-Trung trong
thap nien d i u the ky XXI va thap nien
tiep theo.

2 Tiep t u c p h a t t r i e n cac t h e che h d p
t a c d a phifdng va giflf vufng vai t r o chii
d a o t r o n g Hdp t a c D o n g A

Cung vdi chien lUpc can b i n g quan he
trong flng xif vdi cac nflde ldn, ASEAN
cflng nd lflc thuc day thiet lap va md rpng
cac khudn khd hdp tac da phuOng vdi cac
ddi tac ben ngoai. ASEAN tfl trudc tdi
nay, nha't la trong thap nien gin day da
nhan thUc sau sic ring, minh khdng quan
ly cac boat dpng cua nude ldn nhu My,
Trung Qudc va gifla cac nflde ldn nay ludn
canh tranh vdi nhau n h i m thie't lap vj the
ndi trdi cua hp tai khu viic nay. Chfnh
nhflng mau thuan ve dja chinh trj dd da
va dang tao ra cd hpi cho ASEAN "ddng
mpt vai trd xay dflng", tao nen cac the che
hdp tac da phUdng khu vUc, ma trong dd
cd sU tham gia ciia eac nUdc ldn.

Budc chuyen mdi dd dupc the bien bing
viec ASEAN chu dpng lap nen ARF tfl

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<b>32 </b> <i>Nghien cdu Dong Nam A 4/2010 </i>

nhiem, chia se nhieu hdn nhflng van de an

ninh ciia khu vUc. Tuy nhien, dd ARF chi
la mpt cd che hpp tae an ninh leng lee vdi
trpng tam boat dpng la xay diing long tin
gifla eac nifdc tham gia, nen Hoa Ky cflng
khdng may man ma vdi nd. Cdn Trung
Qud'c thi chi tdi dien dan de ndi ve cac y
dinh hoa_binh, hpp tac ciia hp, trong khi
khdng he giam cae boat dpng banh trUdng
d bien Ddng"''. Do vay, van de dat ra cho
ASEAN la phai xay dUng them cac ed ehe
hdp tac khu vUc khac, dii sUc kiem che bdt
nhUng tham vpng ciia cac nudc ldn dang
ndi len. Day la met trdng nhflng nguyen
nhan dUa den hinh thanh cac cd che hpp
tac da phUdng mdi nhu ASEAN+3 vad
nam 1997.

Tuy nhien ASEAN cung y thfle dflpc
rang, Trung Que'c va Nhat Ban dang kinh
djch vdi nhau va mud'n cd tieng ndi nhieu
hdn trong khu viic, nen se la khd de trien
khai mdt each thiic chat cac hoat ddng hdp
tac ciia cd che ASEAN+3. Do vay, sau khi
ASEAN+3 ra ddi, ASEAN da quye't djnh
hinh thanh nen cd che ASEAN+1. Su kien
dd dua den sU ra ddi cua cd che hpp tac
ASEAN + Trung Qude, ASEAN + Nhat
Ban, ASEAN + Han Qud'c... Day la mdt

trdng nhflng kenh cua tien trinh Hdp tac
Ddng A. Nhiem vu cua chflng la trien khai
cac quyet djnh, cac ke beach ve hpp tac
Ddng A dupc thdng qua tai Hdi nghj
ThUdng dinh ASEAN+3 hang nam. Trdng
cac tien trinh nay, ASEAN vdi tU each la
ngudi sang lap, dUde ta't c i cac ddl tac
thfla nhan nam vai trd cheo lai. Nhu vay,
vdi sU xuat hien cua cac cd che ASEAN+3,
ASEAN+1, mpt ca'u true khu viic mdi do
ASEAN sang lap da hinh thanh d Ddng A
tfl cudi nhflng nam 90 ciia the ky XXI va
xflc tien kha manh me trong thap nien

diu the'ky XXI.

Tuy nhien, do Hdp tac Ddng A khdng cd
sii tham gia eiia My, nen Trung Que'c da
cd cd hdi phat huy vai trd ciia hp trong
ASEAN+3. Vai trd ciia Nhat Ban va Han
Qud'c trd nen kha md nhat. Neu tiep tuc
tinh hinh nay, the can bang anh hudng
gifla cac nUde ldn ma ASEAN dang cd'
gang tad lap, cd nguy cd bj pha vd. Dd vay,
van de dat ra chd cac nha lanh dae
ASEAN la p h i i tim each thu bflt sU tham
gia ciia cac cudng qud'c khac vao hdp tac
Ddng A. Y tudng hpp Thupng dinh Ddng A
(EAS) da dupe Tong thd'ng Han Qud'c Kim
Dae Yung dUa ra va sau dd dUdc cac nUdc

ASEAN nhieu nudc ngeai Ddng A nhu An
Dp, Australia, Niu Dilan va Nga hUdng
Ung. Su quan tam cua cac nUdc ldn tdi
EAS, mdt l i n nfla, lai tao cd hdi cho
ASEAN thiic hien muc tieu can bang inh
hudng. De dat dUpc muc tieu nay, ASEAN
da de ra mpt bp quy tac ve thanh vien
EAS., theo dd mot qud'c gia mud'n tham
gia Hpi nghi Thupng dinh Ddng A phai
dap Ung dupc 3 dieu kien sau: (1) la nUdc
ddl thoai cua ASEAN; (2) Phai thfla nhan
TAC va (3) la ddl tac kinh te quan trpng.

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<i>Nguyen Thu My - Phdn ifng chinli sdch ciia ASEAN trUdc sif hien ddng... </i> <b>33 </b>

My la nifdc tiep theo thfla n h a n TAC va cd
the trd t h a n h t h a n h vien mdi, cflng vdi
Nga t h a m gia vae EAS.

Vdi sU ra ddi ciia tien t r i n h EAS,
ASEAN da tad dupe t h e m mdt t h a n h td'
mdi cho cho cau trflc ciia k h u vUc. T h a n h
td' nay la mdt vdng ddng t a m ldn, n a m
t r o n g A R F , n h u n g lai n a m ngoai
ASEAN+3 va cac A S E A N + 1 . Ca'u true
t r e n tao r a nhflng k e n h mdi, thdng qua dd,
ASEAN t h u bflt dupe cac ngudn lUe ben
ngoai de p h a t trien. N h u n g q u a n trpng
hdn, eac vdng trdn ddng t a m dUdc lien ket
vdi n h a u t h e e md h i n h t r u e va n a n hoa da

lam day t h e m m a n g ludi bao hiem a n n i n h
cho ASEAN trUdc cac mdi de dpa tfl ben
ngdai va k h a i thac sfl hien dien ciia N h a t
Ban, An Dp, Austalia, Niu Dilan de kiem
che bdt i n h hudng ciia T r u n g Qud'c'^'. Re
rang, nd liic h i n h t h a n h cac the che hpp
tac da phudng, t r o n g dd ASEAN n a m t h e
chu ddng va duy tri vai trd cheo lai ciia
minh la mdt t r o n g nhflng p h i n flng k h a
linh boat va hpp ly trflde sfl t h a y ddi

<b>nhanh chdng ciia mdi t r u d n g c a n h t r a n h </b>
<b>va an ninh k h u vUc thdi ky h a u chien </b>

t r a n h lanh, nha't la sU gia t a n g cila toan
c i u hoa va ndi len n h a n h chdng cua T r u n g
Qud'c cflng n h u gia t a n g chien lupc gifla
cac nude ldn, trUd'c b e t la gifla My va
<b>T r u n g Qud'c tai Ddng N a m A. </b>

<b>3. N a n g c a o sufc d e k h a n g k h u vifc </b>
<b>t h o n g q u a x a y di^ng C o n g d o n g A S E A N </b>

<b>Can b i n g quan he vdi cac nUdc ldn va </b>

xay d u n g cac t h e che hdp tac da phUdng la
nhflng n h a n t d q u a n t r p n g de duy tri an
ninh va p h a t t r i e n cila Ddng N a m A. Tuy
nhien, nhflng cdng cu nay chi cd the p h a t
huy hieu q u i t r e n g giai ddan hien nay,

khi q u a n he gifla cac nflde ldn la q u a n he

vfla hdp tac vfla c a n h t r a n h . Met khi moi
q u a n he gifla cac nifdc ldn p h a t trien theo
chieu ngUdc lai, thi nhflng cdng cu dd chUa
du de d a m b i o a n n i n h cho k h u vUc. Do
vay, ASEAN n h a n tha'y c i n thiet phai
t a n g cudng k h i n a n g de k h a n g cua Ddng
N a m A b a n g viec lam s a u sac hdn hdi
n h a p k h u vUc. De d a t dupe muc tieu nay,
tai Hdi nghj T h u p n g dinh ASEAN l i n thU
9 td chUc d Bali t h a n g 11/2003, cac nha
lanh dad Hiep hdi nay da de ra muc tieu
xay d u n g Cong ddng ASEAN dUa t r e n 3
t r u cdt la Cdng ddng a n ninh ASEAN
(ASC) (tfl n a m 2007 ddi t h a n h Cdng ddng
chinh tri - a n n i n h - APSC), Cpng ddng
k i n h te ASEAN (AEC) va Cpng ddng van
hoa-xa hdi ASEAN (ASSC). Ndi ve tac
dpng ciia AC ddl vdi ASEAN, trong bai
t h u y e t t r i n h n h a n ky niem 40 n a m ngay
t h a n h lap A S E A N (2007), T h d tudng
Singapore, Ly Hien Long nha'n m a n h
"Bang sii t u h i e n dien mdt each gan ket,
chflng t a se tU chflng td k h a n a n g theo
dudi ldi fch ciia chflng t a va can dii vdi the
gidi. C h u n g t a cd the t h u y e t phuc ngUdi
khac r a n g chflng ta ce t h e dUdc tin cay de
ddng mdt vai trd tich ciic, t r u n g thiic va
xay d u n g trong viec eung cap mdt nen

t a n g cho sU tUdng tac ciia hp vdi Chau A.
Cbi khi dd, cac cUdng qud'c khac mdi nhin
n h a n c h u n g ta mdt each nghiem tuc. Chi
khi dd ASEAN mdi thie't lap dupe chd
dUng va vi t r i chfnh d a n g cua nd trong
k h u viic"'*^'. Ne'u ASEAN khdng hpi n h a p
n h a n h hdn va s a u hdn, ASEAN se bj m a t
vai trd chit dae. "Trung Qud'c va N h a t Ban
cd t h e la ngUdi cam lai va kiem seat td'c dp
cua Hpp tac Deng A va ASEAN se chi la
met h a n h k h a c h . Neu dieu dd xay ra, Hdp
tac Ddng A se t h a t bai"'^'.

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<b>34 </b> <i>Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010 </i>

ChUdng t r i n h h a n h ddng n h i m xay diing
ASC, AEC va ASCC (2004) va t h d n g q u a
b i n Hie'n chUdng ASEAN tfl 2007...

<i>Ndi tdm lgi, trUdc sU gia ciia t e a n c i u </i>

hea, k h u viic hoa va c a n h t r a n h chien lUdc
gifla cac nUde ldn, t r e n g dd cd sii trdi day
cua T r u n g Qud'c va An Dp, sU suy giam
tUdng ddl vai trd cua My va N h a t B i n
cflng n h u sU ndi len ciia cac van de a n
ninh, trong dd cd a n n i n h phi t r u y e n
thdng, ASEAN da p h i n flng k h a linh b o a t
va m a u le b a n g tiep t u c t h e o dudi chien
lu'dc can b a n g nUdc ldn, t a o dUng cac t h e

che hdp tac da phUdng n h u A S E A N + 3 ,
A S E A N + 1 , EAS va t a n g cudng lien k e t
ndi khdi vdi q u y e t t a m xay Cpng ddng
ASEAN trd t h a n h hien thiic v a e n a m
2015. Nhflng nd lUc mdi t r e n va nhflng k e t
q u i b a n d a u da va d a n g gop p h i n q u a n
trpng cho duy t r i hoa b i n h , on djnh d Ddng
N a m A, t a o dieu kien t h u a n lpi cho cac
nflde t h a n h vien p h a t t r i e n k i n h te va duy
tri b i n sac, chu q u y e n qud'c gia cua d a n
tdc m i n h , hdi n h a p cd h i e u q u i va n g a y
cang cd vj the q u a n t r p n g hdn t r e n trfldng
qud'c te. Day la tien de b e t sflc q u a n t r o n g ,
la h a n h t r a n g cho ASEAN va cac nflde
t h a n h vien bflde vao t h a p nien tiep t h e o
ciia t h e ky X X I - t h a p nien day hfla hen,
nhflng bien dpng khdn lUdng./.

CHU THICH

1. Theo quy dinh cua A CFTA, mUc thue 0%
se ap dung cho 17 linh vUc kinh te cua
Inddnexia bao gdm 12 nganh san xuat, 5
trong nganh nong nghiep, khai khoang va
hai san. Xem: J a k a r t a Post 5/1/2009. D i n
theo BBC Vietnamese. 5/1/2010

( e s s / 2 0 1 0 / 0 1 / 1 0 0 1 0 5 _ c h i ( a
-asean_delays.shtml

2. Dan theo bai viet tren

3. Ngay 7 thang 1/2010, Diln dan Khu vUc
mau dich tU do Trung Qudc-ASEAN da
dupc tdchUc tai Nam Ninh. Tuyen bo'Chii
tich dien dan nha'n manh: hai ben Trung
Quo'c-ASEAN can tie'p tuc nghiem chinh
thfle thi cac nghia vu quy dinh trong
ACFTA. Trudc do, vao t h a n g 4/2009,
Trung Qud'c da de xua't t h a n h lap Quy dau
tu ASEAN de xay dUng cd sd ha tang va
difa ra mot Quy cho vay Uu dai cho
ASEAN len tdi 15 ty USD.

4. Noi ve tam quan trpng mdi cua Dong Nam
A, trong cupc dieu t r i n trUdc Qudc hpi My
ngay 21 thang 9 nam 2005 ong Eric G.
John, Trd ly Thfl trifdng ngoai giao phu
trach khu vUc Chau A-Thai Binh Difdng
nha'n manh : "Dong Nam A la, se va van la
khu vUc quan trpng nha't". Xem them: Ngo
Vinh Long: Dong Nam A trong quan he My,
Nhat, Trung Quo'c va anh hifdng cua no ddi
vdi Viet Nam//Tap chf Thdi dai, sd 8/2006.

oVinhLong.htm

5. Hpi nghj ca'p cao Nhat Ban - Me Cong:
Tang cifdng hpp tac phat trien cd sd ha

t i n g , dao tao va bao ve moi trifdng
( h t t p : / / d o a n t h a n h n i e n . v n / a r t i c l e / d o i n
-goai/12392

6. Nam 1995, Trung Qud'c chie'm dao Vanh
Khan do Philippin tuyen bo' chu quyen.
7. ASEAN's Strategy towards its dialogue

Partners and ASEAN Plus Three process.
By S.Pushpanathan, Head of External
relations, ASEAN Secretariat. Da d i n .
8. Speech by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at

the ASEAN Day Lecture. Singapore, 7 August
2007.
9. ASEAN's Strategy towards its dialogue

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Dự báo sự phát triển của công nghệ sinh học trong những thập niên đầu thế kỷ XXI

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