Thu nhập từ dầu khí và cơ hội cho phát triển nông nghiệp Trung Đông.

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<b>THU NHAP TUT DAU KHI VA CD HOI CHO PHAT TRIEN </b>

<b>NONG NGHIEP TRUNG DONG </b>

<i><b>Bdi Nhat Quang* </b></i>

<i>T</i>

<i>^rung Dong trong suo't qua trinh </i>
<i>phdt trien thdi gian vaa qua </i>
<i>vdn luon Id diem nong cua the </i>
<i>gidi xet ta nhiiu khia canh khdc nhau: </i>
<i>phdt trien kinh te, the che chinh tri, van de </i>

<i>an ninh vd chien tranh cue bo. Bdi viet </i>
<i>ndy se phdc hog. ro net hcfn ve vdn di kinh </i>
<i>te'ndi bd.t cua khu vUc trong giai doan hien </i>
<i>tai vd du dodn vd cdc kich bdn phdt trien </i>
<i>thdi gian tdi: do Id van de thu nhap ta ddu </i>
<i>khi trong tUcfng quan vdi dinh hUdng phdt </i>
<i>trien nong nghiep. </i>

<b>1. Sure manh dau khi </b>

Viec xac dinh cu t h e r a n h gidi dia ly cua

Trung Ddng cho tdi nay v i n chUa dat dUpc

nhieu y kien ddng t h u a n , nhUng hau het

cac ben q u a n t a m deu ngam hieu day la

mpt khu viic dia ly dac biet m a n g y nghia

ket ndi lich sU, kinh te, van hoa gifla ba

*Tie'n sT, Ph6 vien tnicmg

Vien Nghien cihi Chdu Phi v^ Trung Ddng

chau luc A - Au - Phi. Thiic trang phat

trien trong npi tai khu vUc Trung Ddng

the hien sii phan hoa sau sac vdi nhieu

khac biet va chenh lech dang ke gifla cac

quo'c gia, dac biet la nhflng khac biet ve

thu nhap, trinh dp phat trien kinh te, dn

dinh chinh tri va phat trien xa hoi.

Mpt trong nhflng nguyen nhan lam nen

sfl ndi bat cua mpt so' qud'c gia Trung Ddng

trong tfldng quan vdi cac qud'c gia khac

chinh la sfl phan bd ngudn tai nguyen

thien nhien khdng ddng deu va dau khi

-ngudn tai nguyen quan trpng nha't cua

khu vflc nay - da trd t h a n h mau chd't cua

<i>mpi van de lien quan tdi khoang each va vi </i>

the ciia cac qud'c gia hoac nhdm qude gia

trong khu vflc. Vdi each tiep can xem xet

cac qude gia Trung Ddng tfl goc dp tiem

n a n g dau khi va thu n h a p tfl ngudn tai

nguyen chien Iflpc nay, ngay lap tflc cd the

k h a n g dinh t i m quan trpng ciia khu vflc

dang quan ly tdi 66% trfl Ifldng dau khi

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<b>BuiNhgt Quang </b> Thu nhdp tij dau khi vd co hdi.

toan cau'. Mdt diem d a n g chu y nfla khi sach p h a t trien k i n h te va q u a n diem dau

xem xet ve tiem n a n g dau khi T r u n g Ddng tU, sU d u n g ngudn t h u tfl d a u khi cua

la viec ngudn tai n g u y e n khdng id nay chinh p h u cac qude gia T r u n g Ddng da

p h a n ldn n a m trong quyen q u a n ly cua cac dUde dac biet chu y, xem xet t r e n g chinh

qud'c gia nhU A r a p Xeut, Irac, Iran, UAEs, sach dd'i n g o a i c u a n h i e u qud'c gia ben

Cd Oet, Libi... va ve cd b a n cd the p h a n ngeai. Cd le dieu l a m n e n sii nei b a t cua

Idai cac qud'c gia dau k h i T r u n g Ddng ndy cac qud'c gia T r u n g Ddng c h i n h la ngudn

t h u n h a p k h d n g id m a hp t h u dUpc t r o n g

n h i e u n a m q u a nhd k h a i t h a c va xua't

k h a u d a u . R a t n h i e u dd'i tac nUde ngoai

da lien tuc h u d n g ve T r u n g Ddng va dac

biet q u a n t a m tdi c h i n h sach d a u tU cua

cac qud'c gia n a y do moi q u y e t d i n h dau

t u hp dUa r a deu cd t h e gay r a nhUng

a n h h u d n g d a n g ke tdi que'c gia tiep

<i>n h a n n g u d n t a i c h i n h . Bieu do 1 dUa r a </i>

m i n h hoa ve bien ddng gia ddu va tdc dp

t a n g trUdng t a i s a n d nUde ngoai cua

n h d m cac qud'c gia GCC t a i k h u viic

T r u n g Ddng.
t h a n h hai nhdm:

- Nhdm cae qud'c gia thupc Hoi ddng

Hdp tac Vdng vinh (GCC) bao gdm 6

t h a n h vien: B a r a n h , Cd Oet, Oman, Cata,

Arap Xeut vd UAEs.

- Nhdm cac qud'c gia dau khi q u a n trpng

khac cua T r u n g Ddng bao gdm: Iran, Irac,

Libi.

TU n h a n dinh neu t r e n ve cae qud'c gia

cd vai trd va t a m a n h hUdng ldn d k h u viic

lien quan tdi cae boat ddng khai thac vd

xua't k h a u dau, nhieu va'n de ve chinh

<i>B i e u d d 1. B i e n d o n g g i a d a u v a t a i s a n d n i i d c n g o a i c i i a c a c q u o c g i a G C C </i>

<i>Tai san o nuoc </i>
ngoai (ty USD)

• I J i ^

Gia dau
<b>tho (U.SD) </b>

I I I '

<i>S',M, | ' . ' | i • , . . ;•.•., ']'\^ • ' . " . M , T I </i> <b>I . ! </b> <i>_{I;. . 1 . !•• M': . I '}</i>

<i>Ngudn: Theo bdo cdo ciia McKinsey & Company, 5, 2008. </i>

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Thu nhdp tu dau khi vd co hdi. <b>Bui Nhdt Quang </b>

Sd lieu ve ngudn t h u va tich luy tai san dUPng vdi quy md GDP cua cac nen kinh

d nude ngoai cua cac qude gia T r u n g Ddng te ldn h a n g dau tren the gidi nhU Anh

la dac biet cd y nghia vd t r e n thiic te da hoac Phap. Ben ngoai nhdm GCC. cac

the hien d h a n g loat cae dong thai dau tU qude gia ndi bat khac cua Trung Ddng la

ndi bat tren k h a p toan cau: Dubai mua cd Libi, Iran, Irac vdi trfl lUdng dau Udc tinh

phieu cua Sony, Cata vd Dubai canh t r a n h lan lUdt 41,5 ty thung, 89,7 ty thung va

nhau de mua lai cac san giao dich ehUng 112,5 ty thung^ cung dang the hien sflc

khoan toan cau, Abu Dhabi bdm nhieu ty manh dau khi cua minh vdi anh hUdng

USD ddu t u vad Citigroup... Ta't ca deu la dang ke trong khu vUc va tham chi la d

nhflng da'u hieu the hien sii giau c6 cua cap dp toan cau.

cac qud'c gia T r u n g Ddng va t h a m vpng

b a n h trudng ve m a t k i n h te cua hp vdi tU

each la cac dd'i tae chu chd't t r e n thi trUdng

tai chinh toan cau. Bieu dd 1 cho tha'y

trong giai doan tU 2002 den 2006, tai san

nUde ngoai cua GCC da t a n g chdng mat

vdi ty le 131% va dat con so' khdng id

khoang 2000 ty USD vao n a m 2006. Day

la khdi lupng tai san ra't dang ne tUdng

Bieu dd 2 da dUa ra 4 kich ban ve thu

nhap tU dau khi cua cae qude gia GCC

trong giai doan tU nay den ndm 2020 diia

tren cd sd cae mfle gia dau tho khac nhau

giao dong tfl 30USD den 100 USD mot

t h u n g dau. Tinh toan theo cae kich ban da

dUa den ket qua la tdng thu nhap tU dau

khi cua GCC cd the len tdi mfle cao nha't Id

8,8 ngan ty USD vao nam 2020.

<i>B i e u d o 2. B o n k i c h b a n t h u n h a p tii d a u k h i ciia GCC </i>

<i>Ddn vi: ngdn ty USD </i>

Gii d5u

<i>m {,•:! </i>

<i><b>• i ^ </b></i>

<b>• ( </b>

<i><b>mmtutm </b></i>

<b>s Q</b>

<b> BI </b>

<b>• • i i , i </b>

<b>r. </b>

<i><b><</b></i><b> ;i .1 </b>

<b>4 h .' </b>

<b>I l l </b> <b>r ; - ' ' i ' I </b>

<i>Ngudn: Theo bdo cdo cua McKinsey & Company, 5. 2008. </i>

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<b>Bui Nhqt Quang </b> Thu nhdp tu ddu l<hi vd co hdi..

Du la theo kich ban gia dau nao di nfla

thi sii giau cd ciia cac quo'c gia vung Vinh

vdn se lien tuc tang len trong giai doan

den nam 2020 va khi lay can cfl gia dau la

70USD/thiing thi tdng ngudn thu tich tu

ciia GCC cung len tdi 6,2 ngan ty USD vao

nam 2020 - tflc la cad ga'p 3 lan sd tien hp

thu dfldc trdng cac nam tfl 1993 den 2006.

Sd lieu ke tren la het sflc dang quan tam

khi thflc te giai ddan trUdc dd cho tha'y

mpt phan dang ke len tdi hdn 50% ngudn

<i>thu tit dau khi ciia cac quo'c gia Trung </i>

Ddng da dUdc st( dung de dau tu ra ben

ngdai. Dieu nay cd nghia rdng quyet dinh

dau tfl cua cac nha lanh dao Trung Ddng

trong nhieu nam tdi se cd sflc nang mang

tam cd toan cau.

<b>2. Nong nghiep, dat canh tac va li/dng </b>

<b>thuc </b>

Tfldng phan vdi sfl giau cd ve tai

nguyen dau khi, cac qud'c gia Trung Ddng

da va dang gap phai rat nhieu khd khan

trong phat trien nong nghiep, duy tri dien

tich da't dai cd the canh tac dfldc va tfl dd

dam bad dii ngudn Ifldng thflc phuc vu

nhu cau quoc npi. Vdi nhflng dien bien ma

the gidi da chflng kien trong nam 2008 ve

thieu hut ngudn cung ndng san va bien

ddng gia lUdng thflc thi mpt van de da

dfldc canh bao tfl lau tai Trung Dong

dfldng nhfl cd the trd thanh sU that: dd la

sfl thieu hut da't canh tac va cuoc khiing

hdang Ifldng thflc.

Khu vflc Trung Ddng giau cd thflc te la

mpt trong nhflng ndi ngheo nan nha't xet

ve tieu chi ngudn nfldc ngpt va dat ndng

nghiep. Theng ke ciia To chflc Nong Lfldng

Lien hdp qud'c (FAO) cho thay kho'i Ifldng

nfldc ngpt binh quan dau ngUdi cua Trung

Dong hien nay chi dat 1000 m^/nam so vdi

mfle trung binh ciia the gidi la 7000

m^/nam. Va'n de nghiem trpng hdn nfla la

Cdn Sd' nay dfl kien se giam kheang 30%

vao nam 2020 do nguyen nhan bien doi

khi hau toan cau va toe dp tang trfldng

dan sd qua cao ciia Trung Dong. So' lieu

thd'ng ke cho thay dan so' tai Trung Dong

nam 2007 da len tdi 364 trieu ngfldi, tflc la

tang gap 3 lan so vdi con so' ciia nam 1950

va tdc dp tang dan so' van chfla cd dau

hieu cham lai khien cho cac cd quan thong

ke trong khu vflc deu dii doan dan sd^

Trung Dong cd the len tdi 450 trieu ngfldi

vao nam 2020.

Nhfl vay, thflc trang phat trien nong

nghiep Trung Ddng cho tha'y khu vflc nay

dang phai dfldng dau vdi cac van de thflc

sU khd khan: thieu nfldc canh tac, han han

ked dai, dan sd' gia tang va dien tich dat

canh tac ngay cang thu hep. Hau qua la

thieu hut Ifldng thflc nghiem" trpng va khu

viic Trung Dong trd nen rat de hi tdn

thfldng trfldc cac tac dpng ciia sfl thieu hut

ngudn cung ca'p nong san tren the gidi.

Hien nay, hau het cac qude gia Trung

Dong deu phai nhap khau Ifldng thUc phuc

vu cho nhu cau tieu thu npi dia. Trong

mua vu 2008 - 2009, Bao cao ciia Bp Nong

nghiep My cho thay Iran se phai nhap

khau khoang 1,8 trieu tan lua my cua My.

Ngoai ra Iran ciing se phai nhap kh^u

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Thu nhdp tu ddu khf vd co hdi. <b>_{Bui Nhqt Quang}</b>

khoang 1,5 trieu ta'n Ifldng thflc tfl cac

ngudn khac. Tfldng tu n h u Iran, cae qud'c

gia khac n h u Arap Xeut, Ai Cap, Irac...

cung dang phai n h a p k h a u ngay cang

nhieu nong san de dap flng nhu cau cua

dan chung. Td chflc P h a t trien Ndng

nghiep Arap Ude t i n h r a n g cac quoc gia

Arap se phai n h a p k h a u lUdng thiic tri gia

tu 35 - 40 ty USD mdi n a m trong giai doan

2009 - 2010 va ddi vdi mpt so' qud'c gia

vung Vinh, 90%) n h u cau tieu t h u lUdng

thiic trong nUde dupe dap Ung bang cac

san pham n h a p khau•^ Xi Ri cho tdi ndm

2005 van la qud'c gia xua't k h a u Ida my

nhUng ke tfl 2006 den nay da bat dau

khong dap flng du n h u cau trong nfldc va

phai n h a p k h a u lua my tfl Bungari. Cach

day khdng lau, Irac van duy tri tdt kha

nang tfl cung tfl cap ve Ifldng thflc nhUng

den nay da khdng dam dUdng ndi nhu cau

lUdng thiic ngdy cang gia t a n g va trd

t h a n h nude n h a p k h a u lUdng thiic ldn vdi

cac hpp ddng n h a p k h a u ddi b a n ky ket

vdi Oxtraylia, My vd P h a p . Ddi vdi cac

qude gia t h d n h vien GCC, sii giau cd dat

dupe nhd xuat k h a u dau dUdng nhU van

chua dam bad dupe cho hp kha n a n g phat

trien ndng nghiep mpt each ben vUng do

cac ban che ve dieu kien canh tac la khdng

the khac phuc dUpc. Ket qua ta't yeu v i n

la sii phu thudc n a n g ne vao lUPng thiic

n h a p khau.

<b>3. Van de va giai phap </b>

So sanh hai linh viic kinh te quan trpng

cua T r u n g Ddng la boat dpng khai thac.

xua't k h a u dau khi va phat trien nong

nghiep da cho thay nhieu dien bien tUdng

phan, mang tinh trai chieu. Ce the n h a n

dien met so' va'n de dang chu y bao gdm:

- Ngudn Ipi n h u a n ma cac chinh phu

Trung Dong thu ve tfl xua't khau dau khi

la ra't ldn va da gdp p h a n quan trpng giup

hp xay dflng xd hoi phat trien, thinh

vflpng.

- Trai ngflde vdi sfl giau cd tfl dau khi,

ndng nghiep Trung Ddng gap ra't nhieu

b a n che trong dinh hUdng phat trien va

hdu het cac qude gia trong khu vUe nay

deu phu thupc n a n g ne vao lUdng thiic

nhap khau.

- Mpt van de khac phat sinh la sU phan

chia cua cai trong xa hdi Trung Dong lai

the hien sii mat can doi nghiem trpng.

Ngudn Ipi tU dau khi dudng nhU ehUa dupe

sfl dung mpt each phu hdp cho phat trien

linh viic kinh te cot yeu cua qude gia Id

ndng nghiep va san xuat lUdng thiic.

Cac van de tren da dan tdi thiic trang la

quy md vd sii ddng gdp cua ndng nghiep

tai Trung Dong tUdng doi khiem ton. So'

lieu cua FAO cho thay ndng nghiep chi

ddng gdp ehUa tdi 6,2% GDP tai cac qud'c

gia Arap va xet trong bdi canh cua khu

viic nay thi day chUa phai Id mpt cd ca'u

kinh te phu hpp giup hp dam bao dupe

nhu cau tieu dung nong san npi dia. Ket

qua la bao cao nam 2008 cua FAO cho

tha'y khoang 13% dan so' cac nUde Aiap

dang d tinh t r a n g thieu dinh dUdng. Day

khdng phai Id ty le cae sd vdi mUc trung

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Bui Nhqt Quang Thu nhdp tu ddu khi vd co hdi.

binh cua the gidi nhUng so vdi tiem ndng

k i n h te va k h a n a n g tai chinh ciia T r u n g

Dong thi ty le n a y cho tha'y n h i e u ba't cap

t r e n g cd ca'u k i n h te va chinh sach p h a t

trien qud'c gia.

NhUng khd k h a n trong viec dam bao

ngudn lUdng thiic phuc vu n h u cau npi dia

da khien che cac qud'c gia T r u n g Dong

hudng tdi nhieu giai p h a p mdi vdi nhieu y

tUdng dang chu y. Cac qud'c gia cd tiem

ndng tai chinh ldn nhU A r a p Xeut, UAEs,

Cata... dang thiic hien cae vdng dam p h a n

nghiem tuc vdi mpt so' que'c gia cd nhieu

<i>da't dai va ngudn nUde de mua hoac thue </i>

<i>ddt nong nghiep, td chflc c a n h tac n h a m </i>
dap flng n h u cau ndng san cua minh. Cac

chinh phu T r u n g Ddng da va dang tiep

can nhieu ddi tae n h u Xu Dang, Uganda,

Pakixtan, Thai Lan, Viet N a m de dam

p h a n ve van de nay.

Y tUdng ve mua heac t h u e da't ndng

nghiep d nUde ngddi da vd dang dUde trien

khai t r e n thiic te, khien cho nhflng ndm

gan day da dien r a cac cudc chay dua dau

t u da't t r e n k h a p t h e gidi. Cae qud'c gia

T r u n g Ddng tim kiem dia diem dau tU da't

d k h a p mpi ndi va thong t i n ban dau cho

tha'y Arap Xeut da sd hUu khdang 1,6

t r i e u h a da't n d n g n g h i e p d nUdc ngdai.

K h o n g chiu k e m c a n h , U A E s c u n g sd

hflu k h d a n g 1,28 t r i e u h a t a i c h a u P h i va

P a k i x t a n . Libi t h i d a n g d a m p h a n vdi

U c r a i n a de dd'i d a u va k h i ddt lay

k h d a n g 250.000 h a da't c a n h tac. Thd'ng

ke sd bp cua FAO chi r a r a n g t r e n toan

t h e gidi da cd hdn 8 t r i e u h a da't c a n h tae

dupe b a n hoac cho nUdc ngoai t h u e vd

r i e n g dd'i vdi cac qud'c gia T r u n g Ddng,

dUdng n h u liia chpn n a y cua hp la s a n g

sudt de Cdi da't n d n g n g h i e p la dia ehi

d a u t u d u n g ddn che ddng tdi c h i n h cd

dupe t u xua't k h a u d a u .

N h u vay, bUde dau cd the n h a n dinh

r a n g mpt sii can b a n g chien lUpc mdi da

dupe xac lap gifla mpt ben Id ngudn tai

chinh khdng id ma cac quo'c gia xua't k h a u

dau T r u n g Dong d a n g t h u ve va ben kia la

sflc ep dang ke cua dan c h u n g ddi hdi phai

thoa m a n n h u cau tieu t h u lUdng thiic

trong nUdc. Dieu nay da tao r a cd hoi hdp

tae gifla cac qud'c gia cd Ipi t h e t r o n g s a n

xua't n d n g n g h i e p vdi cac quo'c gia cd

tiem liic t a i c h i n h h u n g h a u t a i T r u n g

Dong. Viet N a m h i e n la qud'c gia cd t h e

m a n h ve s a n xua't n d n g n g h i e p va xet tfl

gde dp nay, t h i trUdng T r u n g Ddng trd

n e n h e t sflc t i e m n d n g va ra't c a n dflpc

chu y d u n g mfle.

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Thu nhdp tu dau khi vd co hdi... Bui Nhqt Quang

<i>Chu thich: </i>

<i>' Theo bao cao OPEC Secretariat Report, 2007 </i>

<i>^ l/dc tinh cua European Institute for Research on Mediterranean and Euro-Arab Cooperation, 2007. </i>

<i>^ Theo so lieu eda The Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, Annual Report 2008. </i>

Tai lieu tham khao

<i>1. Annual Report 2008, T h e Arab Organization for Agricultural Development. </i>

2. OPEC S e c r e t a r i a t Report, 2007.

<i>3. Petroleum Report 2007, European Institute for Research on Mediterranean and Euro-Arab </i>

Cooperation.

<i>4. The Coming Oil Windfall in the Gulf McKinsey & Company Report, 5. 2008. </i>

5. Cac bao cao p h a t trien nong nghiep cua FAO.

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