Tổng quan kinh tế Việt Nam năm 2010 và dự báo năm 2011

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T O N G Q U A N K I N H T E V I E T N A M N A M 2 0 1 0
V A D L / B A O N A M 2 0 1 1

BAN PHAN TICH VA PL/ BAO

<i>Trung tdm Thdng tin va Da bao kinh te - xd hdi guoc gia </i>

<i>In 2010, Vietnam gained </i>
<i>recordable economic </i>
<i>achieve-ments with many planned targets </i>
<i>being accomplished and </i>
<i>exceeded. Several features in </i>
<i>economic developments in 2010 </i>
<i>can be described as follows: </i>
<i>economic quarterly growth rates </i>
<i>were steadily higher; </i>
<i>develop-ment investdevelop-ment capital </i>
<i>remained high; trade deficit was </i>
<i>controlled in line with planned </i>
<i>target; however, inflation still </i>
<i>highly Increased and was hard </i>
<i>to be restrained; there was lack </i>
<i>of consistencies and </i>
<i>coordina-tion between fiscal and </i>
<i>mone-tary policies... </i>

<i>Based on analyses of </i>
<i>interna-tional as well as domestic </i>
<i>condi-tions, Department of Macro </i>
<i>Analysis and Forecast under </i>
<i>National Center for </i>

<i>Socio-eco-nomic Information and Forecast </i>
<i>provides forecasts on several </i>
<i>macro economic indicators for </i>
<i>2011 as follows: GDP growth rate </i>
<i>Is estimated at 7-7.5%; inflation is </i>
<i>expected to be controlled at </i>
<i>sin-gle digit; trade deficit is </i>
<i>predict-ed to be restrainpredict-ed at 13 billion </i>
<i>USD; ratio of total social saving </i>
<i>per GDP is estimated at 31%... In </i>
<i>2011, directions for macro </i>
<i>regu-lation are suggested as follows: </i>
<i>to strictly manage FDI inflows; to </i>
<i>concentrate on improving </i>
<i>invest-ment efficiency; to tighten fiscal </i>
<i>policy and closely control over </i>
<i>borrowing activities of public </i>
<i>sector; to address shortcomings </i>
<i>in managing state budget. </i>

1. Tong quan kinh te Viet Nam nim 2010

a. Tdc do tang tudng kinh te tang dan qua cac quy

Nam 2010, tdc do tang trudng cac quy deu cao hon cung ky nam
2009. Tfnh chung ca nam 2010, tang trQdng tdng san pham qudc npi
(GDP) dat 6,78%; tang 1,46 diem % so vdi nam 2009.

Tdc do tang trudng GDP Viet Nam giai doan 2008-2010
8.0

7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

v7.38

5.98
5.85

7.34

3.14

' *p J** J& <Sf* N<£ N^ Ns£ N«f*

# # -# of ^ ^ ^ ^ ^N_{^ ^}s

- TSng trUdng GDP phia cau: Trong co cau GDP phia cau, tieu dung
cudi cung ludn chiem ty le ldn nhat, trong dd, tieu dung tu nhan chie'm
tdi tren 60% GDP, giQ vai trd dong life tang trQdng kinh te. Nam 2010,
tdng mQc ban le hang hda va dich vu tieu dung theo gia thpc te tang
24,5% so vdi cung ky nam trQdc (tang 14% neu loai trQ yeu td gia). Ty
le tich luy tai san cd xu hudng tang dan, chiem khoing 29% GDP. TQ
nam 1 995 tdi nay, tieu dung tQ nhan va tich luy tai san la ddng Ipc

chfnh cua tang trudng GDP. Mac du la mdt nQdc tang trudng dpa vao
xuat khau nhQng can can thQong mai cua Viet Nam lien tuc tham hut
nen xua't khau rdng thudng cd ddng gdp am.

- TSng trudng GDP tii phia cung: Khu vUc ndng nghiep tang 2,78%, ddng
gdp 0,47 diem % vao tang trQdng GDP; cdng nghiep va xay dpng tang 7,7%,
ddng gdp 3,2 diem %; va dich vu tang 7,52%, ddng gdp 3,11 diem %.

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<i>VUNG BUtOfC TRONG THACH TII i t </i>

Chenh lech ve tdc do tang trudng gia tri san xuat vdi tdc dp tang trQdng GDP cua nhdm nganh ndng, lam,
ngu nghiep nam 2010 la 1,91 diem %. MQc chenh lech nay tuy cd giam so vdi quy I va 6 thang diu nam
(tuong Qng la 2,35 diem % va 1,99 diem %) nhUng vin kha cao so vdi mpt sd nam trOdc dd (nam 2006 la
0,71 diem %; nam 2007 la 0,84 diem %; nam 2008 la 0,92 diem %; nam 2009 la 1,17 diem %). Dieu nay
cho thay chi phi trung gian trong san xuat ndng, lam, ngp nghiep dang cd xu hodng tang.

Chi so phat trien sin xui't cdng nghiep 11 thing diu nim 201 0 ting 71,8% so vdi nim gdc 2005, trong
dd, nginh cdng nghiep che bien tang 89,5%; sin xui't dien, nQdc tang 1 21,4%. Chi so niy tang cao hon so
vdi nam 2009 vdi cic con so tQdng Qng l i 51 %; 64,7% v i 85,1 %, cho thi'y xu hodng phuc hdi sin xui't cdng
nghiep khi vQng chic.

Nam 2010, mic du tdc dp tang trudng cao hdn ky vong nhung chit lupng v i hieu qui ting trUdng chua
cd nhieu c i i thien m i cdn cd chieu hudng suy giim. Ty le ting chi phi trung gian trong tdng gii tri sin xui't
phin ldn do ning Ipc quin ly sin xui't cdn nhieu han che, cham ddi mdi Ung dung khoa hpc v i cdng nghe
trong quin ly cung nhu trong sin xua't. Ngoai ra, do nUdc ta dang trong qua trinh chuyen djch co ciu kinh
te nen viec chuyen ddi sang phuong thQc sin xua't mdi cung lam chi phi trung gian ting len. Hieu qui sd
dung vd'n ngay cing giim, di cung vdi xu hudng tang ty le vd'n dau tQ phit trien trong GDP. Ning suit lao
ddng tinh theo gii cd djnh 1994 ting vdi tdc do cham, phin inh chit lupng, trinh dp lao ddng chua dupe
cii thien nhieu.

Bang 1: Hieu qua von va hieu qua lao dong
Giai doan Vdn DTPT/GDP(%) ICOR Nang suat lao dong

(tri^u dong/ngudi)

Tang trurjfng
NSLD (%)

1991 - 1995 28,18 3,44 5,25 5,70

1996 - 2000 33,29 4,79 6,92 4,72

2001 - 2005 39,06 5,20 8,36 4,27

2006 - 2010 42,70 6,09 10,65 5,37

<i>Nguon: Tinh toan tCf so lieu cua Tong cue Thdng ke. </i>

<i>b. Von dau trf pha t trien van duy tri 6 mdc cao, giai ngan cac nguon vdn ODA va FDI co nhieu ca i thien </i>
Td'ng vd'n diu tU toin x i hdi nam 201 0 Udc ting 1 2,9% so vdi nim 2009, bing 41 % GDP. Bdi chi ngin
sach Udc dat 5,8% GDP; no Chinh phu tang manh, bing khoing 44,5% GDP (nam 2009 l i 40% GDP; nam
2008 la 36,5% GDP); no nUdc ngoii Udc chiem 42,2% GDP; nd cdng vio khoing 56,7% GDP. Tuy nhien,
nhQng con sd tren vin trong ngUdng an toan.

Vdn diu tU trUc tiep nUdc ngoii (FDI) ding ky mdi v i ting them dat 1 8,6 ty USD, giim gin 20% so vdi
nam 2009. Vd'n FDI giii ngan dat 11 ty USD, tang 10% so vdi cung ky va gin bing lupng vdn giii ngan cua
nam 2008. Khoing cich giQa vdn dang ky va vd'n thQc hien d i dope thu hep.

Vdn hd trp phit trie'n chinh thQc (ODA) ky ket nim 2010 Qdc dat 4,93 ty USD, vdn ODA giai ngin Qdc
dat khoing 2,94 ty USD. Tuy gii trj vd'n ky ket va giii ngin deu giim so vdi nam 2009 nhung ty le giii ngin

dat gin 72%, cao nhi't tQ nim 2006 trd lai diy. Ding chu y, trong cd ca'u ODA, ngudn vd'n vay ting trong
khi vien trp khdng hoan lai giim qua cac nim; viec giai ngan vdn ODA gap nhieu kho khin, vQdng mic,
die biet d linh vuc diu tu v i xay dung; ning lqc nhi thau, tQ van chua dip Qng dope yeu ciu cdng viec...
TQ thing 10/2010, vdn diu tQgiin tiep nQdc ngoii cd xu hudng tang trd lai. Den thing 11/2010, ngudn
vdn niy dat 712 trieu USD va du bao c i nam dat 1,5 ty USD, giup can ddi can can thanh toin, dn djnh cung
- ciu ngoai te v i ty gia.

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Kieu hdi nam 2010 dat 8 ty
USD, chiem hdn 7% CDP, tang
khoang 1 7,6% so vdi con sd 6,8 ty
USD cua nam 2009, tuy nhien lai
tiem an nhieu rui ro td bat dn ty
gia va gia ca hang hda. Trong bdi
canh lai suat USD tai Viet Nam
cao hon nhieu so vdi My, khdng

loai trd mdt lupng ldn kieu hdi
chuyen ve de hudng chenh lech
lai suat chd khong di vao san
xua't, kinh doanh.

c. Nhap sieu dat muc tieu ke
<i>hoach </i>

Tren da hdi phuc kinh te
trong nUdc va the gidi, kim
ngach xua't khau nam 2010 tang
trudng manh me, dat 71,6 ty
USD, tang 25,5% so vdi nam
2009, vupt xa chi tieu 6% cua

Qudc hpi. Kim ngach nhap khau
nam 2010 dat 84 ty USD, tang
20,1% so vdi nam 2009. Nhap
sieu ca nUdc dat khoang 1 2,4 ty
USD, bang 17,3% tdng kim
ngach xuat khau, dat muc tieu
tha'p hon 20% theo Nghj quyet
cua Qudc hpi.

N3m 201 0, kim ngach xua't nhap khi'u tang chu yeu do gia the gidi
tang. Xua't khau v i n bi han che do VND bj djnh gia cao hon so vdi
cac ngoai te khac va do anh hudng cua xu hudng bio hp thUdng mai
tren the gidi. Nhap khau d i cd thdi diem chUng lai (quy II, 111/2010)
do tic ddng cua cic chinh sich nham kiem soit chat hoat ddng nhip
khi'u, khuyen khich xui't khau, dieu chinh ty g i i , dieu chinh thue de
gdp phin han che nhip sieu. Tuy nhien, nhUng giii phip han che
nhip sieu hien nay cdn mang tinh ngin han v i chua ben vUng. Them
vio dd, cd ci'u v i khi ning canh tranh cua hing hda xui't khi'u cung
ri't han che, giy sdc ep khdng nhd tdi hoat ddng thUdng mai cua nUdc
ta.

<i>d. Lam phat tang cao va kho kiem soat </i>

Chi sdgii tieu dung (CPI) thing 12/2010 so vdi thing 12/2009 da
ting tdi 11,75%, vUpt xa con so ke hoach cua Qud'c hpi la 8%. Nim
201 0, CPI cd nhUng bien ddng bit thudng so vdi cic nam trUdc (khdng
ke nim 2008 chju inh hudng cua khung hoing tii chinh). CPI thing 1 2
so vdi thing 11 tang tdi 1,98%, cao bit thudng trong 5 n3m trd lai diy.
Nguyen nhin chu yeu la do sU hdi phuc cua ciu trong nUdc va the gidi
lim tang gii hing hda, he luy tU gdi kich thich kinh te nam 2009,

"nhip khi'u" lam phit, ty gii hdi doii bit d'n djnh, yeu td tim ly...
Trong ty le lam phat 1 1,75%, yeu td tien te ddng gdp tdi 4,65 diem %,
chu yeu do i p Ipc cung tien ra nen kinh te nim 2010. Nhu viy, sau mpt
nim hoi phuc kinh te, CPI da vUpt len mdc hai con so, lim diy len
nhUng lo ngai ve nguy co bit d'n kinh te vT md.

e. Chinh sach tai khoa - tien te

Chinh sich tien te nim 2010 dUdc dinh gii l i tUOng ddi linh hoat,
phu hpp vdi dien bien kinh te vi md v i thj trudng tai chinh. Ngin hing
Nhi nUdc (.NHNN) d i ban hanh nhieu chinh sich nhim kiem soit mQc
tang cua td'ng phUdng tien thanh
toin (vio khoing 23%) va mQc
tang tin dung (vio khoing 25%),
sQ dung mpt loat cic cdng cu dieu
hinh nhQ: giQ dn djnh l i i suit cd
ban 8%/n3m trong 12 thing (tQ
01/11/2009 den 31/10/2010) va
ting len 9%/nim tQ 5/11/2010;
trie'n khai cd che cho vay theo l i i
sua't thda thuin dd'i vdi cic khoin
vay trung, d i i han tQ thing
02/2010 v i cic khoin vay ngin
han tQ thing 4/2010; bio dim
chenh lech lii sui't VND v i ngoai
te d mQc hpp ly de khong gay ap
Ipc len ty g i i ; giam ty le dti trO

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C H A O X U A N T A N M A O

bat budc tCr 7% xudng 4% ddi vdi ky han dudi 12 thang, td 3% xudng
2% dd'i vdi ky han tren 12 thing; bao dim khi nang thanh toin, an
toin he thdng, duy tri dn dinh thi trUdng tien te v i phit tin hieu giim
lii sui't thj trudng d mUc hop ly; dieu chinh linh hoat ty gii hdi doii
(dieu chinh tang ty gii binh quin VND/USD lien ngin hing 3,36%
(thing 2) v i tang 2,1% (thing 8)) ket hpp vdi cic bien phip nhim
khuyen khich xui't khi'u, kiem soit nhap sieu, gdp phin giii tda tim ly
gam giU ngoai te v i tang cUdng cdng tic giim sit nham bio d i m d'n
dinh v i an toin he thdng.

Tuy nhien, chinh sich t i i khoa cdn thieu tinh phd'i hpp v i thd'ng
nhit vdi chinh sich tien te. Cic ddng thii dieu hinh chinh sich tien
te cua NHNN trong nam 2010 ve co bin l i nhit quin vdi muc tieu
chinh sich tien te thit chat nham d'n dinh kinh te vT md theo chi dao
cua Chinh phu trong cic Nghj quyet sd 03/NQ-CP ngiy 1 5/1/201 0 v i
Nghj quyet sd 18/NQ-CP ngiy 6/4/2010. Chinh sich tien te cua
NHNN vin kien tri muc tieu d'n djnh vT md ngay c i khi cd Nghj quyet
sd 23/NQ-CP ngiy 7/5/2010 cua Chinh phu nhim ha l i i suit huy
ddng xud'ng khoing 1 0% v i l i i suit cho vay xud'ng khoang 1 2%. Tuy
nhien, viec thit chat tin dung v i l i i suit tang cao d i l i m cic doanh
nghiep gap khd khan ve vd'n cho sin xua't, kinh doanh. Trong quy
1/2010, l i i sui't vay ngin hing d i len tdi 1 7-1 8%/nam (cd noi len tdi
19-20%/nam) v i vin cdn d mdc cao phd bien 13% trong thdi gian
gin diy. Trong khi dd, chinh sich t i i khoa lai khdng ngUng md rong.
Hai khoan chi ldn nhi't l i chi thudng xuyen v i chi diu tU phit trie'n
di tang tuong Ung d mdc gin 7% v i 43% so vdi du toin nam 2010,
mpt mUc tang kep ri't cao"1

. Ngoii ra, trong nam 2010, viec Chinh
phu tang cUdng bin trii phieu trj g i i tdi 68.000 ty ddng d i hut mat

nhieu ngudn vdn cua x i hpi va doanh nghiep. Them vio dd, mdc l i i
suit 12% cua trii phieu chinh phu cung miu thuin vdi muc tieu ha
mat bing l i i suit huy ddng xud'ng dudi 10% nhu Chinh phu mong
mud'n.

Nhu vay, trong luc chinh sich tien te duoc dieu hinh theo hudng co
bin l i thit chat de giup duy tri dn djnh vT md, chinh sich t i i khoa lai
duoc trien khai theo hudng md rdng, cho phep ngin sich chi tieu khi
thoai mii nhim thuc day ting trUdng kinh te. Diu tU tU ngin sich ngay
mpt tang vdi ty trpng ldn d i giy khd khan cho dieu hinh kinh te vi md.
SU thieu phd'i hpp va thd'ng nhi't giUa chinh sich tai khoa v i chinh sich
tien te khien cho hieu qui thpc sU cua chinh sich tien te linh hoat trd
nen rat han che.

<i>f. Lao dong - viec lam, an sinh xa hoi </i>

Nim 2010, cung vdi da phuc hoi cua nen kinh te, nhieu viec lim
mdi cho ngUdi lao ddng d i duoc tao ra, gdp phin ha tha'p ty le thi't
nghiep. Udc tinh c i nam 2010, so lao dpng dupe giii quyet viec lim
dat 1,605 trieu ngUdi, bing 100,31% ke hoach v i ting 6,64% so vdi

thUc hien nam 2009; tren 1,7
trieu ngUdi da dupe dio tao nghd
Dp kien den cud'i nim 2010, ty le
lao dpng qua dio tao dat khoing
40%. Xui't khi'u lao ddng Udc dat
80 nghin ngUdi, dat 94,1 2% so vdi
ke hoach. Ty le lao ddng lim viec
trong khu vpc ndng, lim, thuy sin
giim tU 51,9% nam 2009 xudng

48,2% nam 2010; trong khu vUc
cdng nghiep v i xiy dpng tang td
21,6% len 22,4%; trong khu vUc
dich vu tang tU 26,5% len 29,47o.
Ty le thi't nghiep cua lao dpng
trong dp tud'i l i 2,88%, trong dd
khu vpc thinh thj l i 4,43%, khu
vUc ndng thdn l i 2,27% (nim
2009, cic ty le tUOng Ung l i :
2,9%; 4,6%; 2,25%). Ty le thieu
viec l i m nam 2010 cua lao ddng
trong dp tud'i l i 4,50%, trong dd
khu vpc thinh thj l i 2,04%, khu
vUc ndng thdn l i 5,47% (nim
2009, cic ty le tuong Ung l i :
5,61%; 3,33%; 6,51%). Theo ket
qui nghien cUu cua Trung tam
Hpp tic phat trie'n ngudn nhin
Ipc C&D cdng bd diu thing
02/2010, cd tdi 64% lao dpng nU
thieu viec lim d'n djnh, trong dd
cd tdi 25% sd lao ddng cd mdc
lUdng khdng tUdng xUng vdi cdng
sdc lao ddng bd ra. Dieu niy cho
thiy, xu hudng viec lim nam
2010 vin thieu tinh ben vUng.

Cdng tic giim ngheo, nhi't l i
d 63 huyen ngheo nhi't, dupe
trien khai ddng bd vdi cic giai

phap tro giup thiet thuc c i ve sin
xua't va ddi sd'ng. Theo sd lieu Udc
tinh cua Td'ng cue Thdng ke, ty le
hp ngheo d i giim tU 12,1 % nim
"' Theo boo edo cua Chinh phu tai ky hop
cudi ndm cua Qudc hdi.

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2009 xudng 10,6% nam 2010,
trong do 5 tinh, thanh cd ty le hd
ngheo dudi 1% va khdng con hd
ngheo theo chuan qudc gia la
Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh, Da
Ning, Khanh Hda, Ba Rja - Vung
Tau va Binh Duong; 62 huyen
ngheo nhat nUdc da cd ban hoan
thanh cdng tac xda nha dot, nat
cho hd ngheo. Chinh sach trp giup
ngudi cd cdng va bao trp xa hpi
tiep tuc dupe hoan thien, da md
rdng ddi tupng thu hudng va nang
mUc trp cap. Nha nUdc danh hdn
19.000 ty ddng (tang 17% so vdi
nam 2009) de thuc hien chinh
sach cho hon 1,4 trieu ngUdi cd
cdng vdi each mang; danh 4.500
ty dong (gap hon 2 lan so vdi n3m
2009) de thpc hien trp cap thudng
xuyen cho hdn 1,6 trieu ngUdi va
danh hang nghin ty dong, hang
chuc nghin tan gao de trp cap dot

xuat, chu yeu cho khac phuc
thien tai va cdu ddi giap hat.

<i>g. Mdc do hoan thanh cac chi </i>
<i>tieu ke hoach 2010 </i>

Nam 2010, cd 16/21 chi tieu
dat va vUpt ke hoach, trong dd an
tupng nhat la tdc dp tang kim
ngach xuat khi'u dat 25,5%, cao
gap hon 3 lan chi tieu ke hoach
de ra, gdp phan quan trpng vao
viec giam nhap sieu xudng 1 7,3%
va giam bdt tham hut can can
thanh toan.

Tdng thu ngan sach nha nUdc
(NSNN) nam 2010 Udc dat 528,1
nghin ty ddng, vUpt 14,1% so vdi
dU toan, bao dam dUdc cac nhiem
vu chi va gdp phan giam bdi chi
xudng cdn 5,8% GDP, tha'p hdn
ke hoach de ra (6,2%) va giam
2,4% so vdi nam 2009.

T3ng trudng GDP ca nam dat 6,78%. Thu nhap binh quan dau ngUdi
dat 1,365 trieu ddng/thing, tang 8,9% (da loai trd yeu to tang gia). GDP
binh quan dau ngUdi tinh theo ty gia hien hanh n3m 201 0 da dat tren
1.1 60 USD, cao hon so vdi mUc muc tieu tU 1.050-1.100 USD, dua Viet
Nam ra khdi nhdm nUdc cd thu nhap tha'p.

Ty le hp ngheo dat 10,6% (mdc ke hoach la 10-11%), thap hon so
vdi con sd 1 2,3% cua nam 2009; ty le tha't nghiep d khu vpc thanh thi
la 4,43% (ke hoach la dudi 5%).

Mac du hoan thanh va vUOt muc tieu nhieu chi tieu ke hoach, nen
kinh te phuc hoi kha nhanh song kinh te vT md van thieu nen tang vUng
chac, chat lupng tang trudng thap, tiem an nhieu nguy co... Anh hudng
cua suy thoai toan cau cung dUdc xem la nguyen nhan khien chuyen
dich cd ca'u giUa cac nganh cdn cham, chua dap Ung yeu cau CNH,
HDH da't nUdc. Cd ca'u nganh trong GDP den nam 2010 la: cdng
nghiep va xay dpng dat 41,09% (theo ke hoach la 43-44%), dich vu chi
dat 38,33% (theo ke hoach la 40-41 %). Dang chu y, hau het cac chi tieu
ve bao ve mdi trUdng, khac phuc d nhiem deu khdng dat ke hoach, trong
khi day la mdt trong nhUng van de ldn, gay bUc xuc trong xa hpi.

2. DU bao tinh hinh kinh te Viet Nam n3m 2011
a. Boi canh kinh te the gidi

N3m 2011, kinh te the gidi dp bao tiep tuc tang trudng nhUng se
cham lai do tang trUdng nam 2010 v i n dUa nhieu vao cac gdi kich
thich tai chinh khdng ben vUng. Cac bat dn kinh te dang tang len va
kinh te toan cau dang phai ddi mat vdi nhUng mau thuan va diem yeu
ngay cang Id ro. Da so cac td chdc qud'c te deu ha mUc du bao tang
trUdng kinh te the gidi va canh bao mpt so bat dn nhu lam phat, np
cdng, that nghiep se anh hudng tdi kinh te trong n3m tdi. Theo Quy
Tien te Qudc te (IMF), tSng trUdng kinh te the gidi du bao dat 4,2%
(giam 0,1% theo du bao trUdc dd). Kinh te toan ciu tiep tuc phuc hdi
nhd sp c i i thien trong cic linh vUc diu tu, viec lam v i sUc mua cua hp
gia dinh. Ting trudng cua khu vpc cic nUdc phit trien dp bio d mdc

2,2%. Cic nUdc mdi nd'i va dang phat trie'n se l i nhin td tich cUc cho
ting trUdng kinh te the gidi, dp bao ting trudng d mUc 6,4%.

DU bio trien vong ddng vd'n FDI the gidi trong trung han vin tich
cUc do sU hoi phuc kinh te the gidi d i thuc di'y long tin kinh doanh cua
cic nhi dau tu. Hdi nghi cua Lien Hiep Qudc ve Thuong mai va Phat
trie'n (UNCTAD) du bio ludng vd'n FDI cd the dat 1,2 nghin ty USD
trong nam 2010, t3ng len mdc 1,3-1,5 nghin ty USD trong nam 201 1
va hudng tdi mdc 1,6-2 nghin ty USD trong n3m 201 2. Tuy nhien, trien
vong FDI cdn chiu inh hudng tU nhieu rui ro va thich thUc trudc sU hdi
phuc mong manh cua kinh te toin ciu.

Thupng mai toan ciu cd nhieu di'u hieu se ting trudng cham lai
trong nim 2011. Theo IMF, du bio thUOng mai toan ciu nam 201 1 se
tang 7% so vdi nam 201 0 (thi'p hdn so vdi mUc ting 11,4% nam 201 0).

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<i>YtOVGBVtOfC TRQJVG THACH T H l t</i> <i>r </i>

SU sut giam tdc dp tang trudng thuong mai toan cau chu yeu la do sU
tang trudng cham lai cua cac nUdc phat trien. Trong khi dd, cac nUdc
dang phat trien va moi ndi cd mUc giam tdc dp tang trUdng thuong mai
khdng dang ke.

<i>b. Boi canh kinh te trong niidc </i>

Nam 2011 la mdc quan trpng trong thpc hien Ke hoach 5 nam
2011 -201 5 va Chien luoc phat trien kinh te - xa hpi 2011 -2020. Kinh
te nam 2010 da dat dupe nhUng thanh cdng nhat djnh trong viec hoi
phuc sau suy thoai. Nen kinh te dang cd xu hudng phuc hdi kha nhanh
tren tat ca cac nganh, linh vpc; kinh te vT md tUOng ddi d'n djnh; mdi

trUdng dau tU, kinh doanh dupe cai thien; thj trUdng trong nUdc cd dau
hieu khdi sic; thj trudng hang hda da budc diu khdi phuc lai d i ting
trudng; hoat ddng thuong mai, djch vu cd nhieu co hdi de phit trie'n
thj trUdng mdi, ke c i thj trudng trong nUdc l i n thj trUdng ngoii nUdc.
Nam 2010 se tao nen tang thuin lpi cho tang trudng kinh te nim
2011. Tuy nhien, lam phit d mUc hai con sd, np cdng cao, thim hut
thuong mai ldn, ty gii hdi doii bit d'n dinh trong nam 2010... dang l i
nhUng vin de giy nguy co tiem an cho nen kinh te. Sp bit d'n niy
cung chUng td nhUng yeu kem cd ciu ben trong dang ngiy cing
nghiem trpng, ning Ipc dieu hinh vi md v i cich thUc phin Ung chfnh
sich cdn han che.

c. Dii bao mot so chi tieu kinh te vi mo

- TSng triidng kinh le: Ddng lUc chu yeu cho ting trUdng kinh te cao
cua Viet Nam giai doan trUdc cudc khung hoing t i i chfnh toin cau la
diu tU, xui't khi'u v i tieu dung ndi dja. Trong giai doan khung hoing
2008-2010, vai trd cua xui't khi'u trong ting trUdng GDP bj giim manh,
mac du ty le xui't khi'u tren GDP vin cao nhung ty le nhip sieu cdn
ldn. Vai trd cua tieu dung ndi dja dang trd thinh yeu td ri't quan trang
cua ting trudng kinh te Viet Nam.

Tieu dung npi dja, chu yeu la tieu dung tU nhan va vdn diu tU vin
la ddng lac chinh cho ting trudng kinh te Viet Nam nim 2011. Nhu
ciu tieu dung trong nUdc vin ri't cao, niem tin tieu dung cua ngUdi dan
it suy giim trong cudc khung hoing t i i chinh va suy thoii kinh te toin
ciu, Viet Nam vin la diem den hip din dd'i vdi nguon vdn FDI l i
nhUng cd sd de dp bio tdc dp tang trudng kinh te nam 2011 cd the dat
cao hon nim 2010, d mUc khoang 7-7,5%.

- Lam phat: Ngoii nhUng yeu td giy ra lam phit cd the khic
phuc duoc bing co che dieu hinh, quin ly, tuyen truyen van ddng
nhu chinh sich tien te, ty g i i , lai sui't, yeu to ky vong lam phit...,
cdn cd nhUng yeu to chu yeu thupc ve khich quan, ri't khd han che
nhi/:

- Nhu ciu chi tieu cua Chinh phu (de xiy dung va phit trie'n co sd
ha ting, thUc hien chuyen djch co ci'u kinh te, thpc hien cic chuong
trinh xda ddi giam ngheo, thuc hien an sinh x i hdi...) v i nhu ciu tieu

dung ldn, niem tin cua ngUdi din
ve tieu dung ludn d mdc cao duoc
xem l i mdt trong nhUng yeu to
quan trong tic ddng den lam phit
cua nam 2011.

- Viec gii the gidi cua nhieu
nguyen, nhien lieu v i hing ndng
sin tang cao vio nUa cud'i nam
2010 d i tic ddng lim tang gii
nhieu hing hda trong nUdc, giy
lam phit cao trong nhUng thing
cud'i nam. Xu the gii nguyen,
nhien lieu cd tiep tuc tang cao
trong nim 2011 hay khdng se
phu thudc chu yeu vio khi nang
hdi phuc v i tang trudng cua kinh
te the gidi. Do tang trudng kinh te
the gidi n3m 2011 cdn nhieu khd
khan, ty le thi't nghiep d cic nen

kinh te ldn vin d mUc cao v i
chua the giim nhanh nen khi
ning tiep tuc tang gii cic mat
hing nguyen, nhien lieu l i ft xiy
ra. Do dd, tic ddng cua gia the
gidi ddi vdi kinh te Viet Nam
trong n3m 2011 cung d mdc dp
vUa phii.

- Neu dpa vio l i i suit tien
gdi cd ky han dd'i vdi cic to
chdc cua Ngin hing Thuong
mai Co phan Ngoai thuong Viet
Nam de dU doin ky vong lam
phit, cd the thi'y, ky han cing
d i i thi lai sua't cing giim, gpi y
ky vong lam phit hien nay l i
khdng cao.

NhUng nhin djnh tren cho
phep dp bio lam phit CPI nim
2011 cd the khdng vUpt qui mUc
lam phit cua nam 2010. Tuy
nhien, lam phit vin cd the d mUc
cao neu chung ta khdng quyet liet
thUc hien cic chfnh sich binh d'n
gii va kiem che lam phit, trong

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do can dac biet chd trong chfnh
sach tai khoa va tien te. Neu thUc

hien td't cac chinh sach neu tren
va gia dau the gidi khdng vupt qua
90 USD/thung, cd the du bao lam
phat CPI nam 2011 d mdc mot
con so.

- Xuat nhap khau: Cac yeu to
anh hudng de'n xuat nhap khau
Viet Nam nam 2011 la: sU phuc
hoi cua kinh te the gidi va diin
bien gia ca the gidi cac mat hang
xua't va nhap khau chinh cua Viet
Nam; xu the phat trien cua xua't
nhap khau Viet Nam; co ca'u san
pham xua't khau va nhap khau
cua Viet Nam.

Kinh te the gidi nam 201 1
duoc du bao tang trudng cham
hon nam 2010, gia ca the gidi
cua nhieu mat hang xua't nhap
khau chinh cua Viet Nam da
tang va giU d mdc cao trong quy

IV/2010, khd cd the tang dot
bien trong nam 2011; co ca'u cac
mat hang xua't nhap khau cua
Viet Nam chua the cd thay ddi
ldn.

ThUc tien hoat ddng xua't khau
trong nhUng nam qua va nam
2010 cho thay tiem nang xuat
khau cua Viet Nam cdn rat ldn.
Tuy nhien, cung vdi xu hudng
tang xua't khau, nhap khau cua
Viet Nam cung tang manh va cd
the tang manh hon dan de'n nhap
sieu ngay cang ldn. Nguyen nhan
chu ye'u cua thpc trang nay la do
nhUng van de ndi tai cua nen kinh
te ndi chung va khu vpc xua't khau
ndi rieng.

DUa tren nhUng can cU ke
tren, du bao kim ngach xua't khau
cua Viet Nam nam 2011 dat

78-79 ty USD, kim ngach nhap khau dat 91-92 ty USD, nhap sieu 13 ty
USD, bang 1 6,6% kim ngach xua't khau. Voi tdng kim ngach xua't nhap
khau nam 2011 vao khoang 1 69-1 71 ty USD, cho thay dp md cua nen
kinh te Viet Nam la rat ldn va sp phu thudc cua nen kinh te trong nUdc
vao ben ngoai la rat ldn. Van de cap bach hien nay khdng phai la kim
ngach xua't, nhap khau tang dupe bao nhieu ma can quye't liet co ca'u
lai cac mat hang xua't khau, Uu tien cac mat hang cd gia tri gia tang cao
vdi nguyen lieu san xua't dupe cung Ung bdi cac doanh nghiep trong
nUdc.

- Tiet kiem, dau tu va tich luy tai san co dinh: Trong giai doan
2000-2010, trU nam 2008, ty le tiet kiem toan xa hpi theo gia hien

hanh ludn dat mUc tren 30% CDP. Nam 2011, dp bao ty le nay cd kha
nang dat mUc cao hdn, tuy nhien se khdng tang nhieu vi vdi viec hinh
thanh mat bang gia mdi trong cudc khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai
kinh te toan cau vda qua va lam phat tang cao trd lai trong nhQng thang
cud'i nam 2010, mUc sd'ng cua dai da sd nguoi dan bi sut giam nen tiet
kiem cua khdi dan cU chua the tang nhanh. Cdng ddng doanh nghiep,
nha't la cac doanh nghiep vQa va nhd vQa trai qua "con bao" khung
hoang tai chinh toan cau, dang trong qua trinh hoi phuc; mdt so tap
doan kinh te ldn da dupe phat hien la hoat ddng rat thieu hieu qua va
phai co ca'u lai trong n3m 2011 va nhQng nam tiep theo nen ty le tiet
kiem tU khdi doanh nghiep con nhieu han che; tiet kiem cua khdi nha
nUdc thudng khiem ton. Du bao tiet kiem toan xa hdi nam 2011 chie'm
khoang tren dudi 31% CDP.

Mpt so phan tich cho rang trong nam 2011, neu md rdng va trien
khai mdt so dp an dau tu mdi thi ty le tich luy tai san tren CDP (theo
gia hien hanh) cd nhieu kha nang quay trd lai thdi ky nhQng nam 2003,
2004, dat khoang 35-36 % GDP.

- Tham hut tai khoan vang lai: Do ty le dau tU tren GDP cua Viet
Nam trong vai nam gan day dang d mQc rat cao, chenh lech giQa tiet
kiem va dau tU ldn, nhap sieu cao dan den tai khoan vang lai trong
nhQng nam dd bi tham hut nang. Phan tfch cho thay can can tai khoan
vang lai nam 2011 chua the dupe cai thien nhieu. Ve so tUdng dd'i,
tham hut tai khoan vang lai nam 2011 dp bao la gan tPOng tp n3m
2010 nhung so tuyet dd'i tSng kha cao.

Mac du cd mdc tham hut can can tai khoan vang lai d muc cao
nhQng can can thanh toan cua Viet Nam van d mQc an toan do dupe
tai trp chu yeu bdi cac nguon dau tu trung va dai han nhu FDI, ODA va

cac nguon vd'n dau to gian tiep khac, trong dd ke ca kieu hdi va tien do
ngudi lao dpng dang lam viec d nUdc ngoai gdi ve.

3. Djnh hUdng dieu hanh nam 2011

Trong viec thUc hien Ke hoach phat trien kinh te - xa hdi n3m 201 1
va nhQng nam tiep theo, can xem xet va cu the hda tdng bode nhQng
kien nghi sau:

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C H A C X U A N T A N M A C

- Ddng vdn nUdc ngoai can
duoc quan ly chat che ca ve sd
luang va lTnh vpc dau tif. Can cd
<i>ca che thong thoang hon de thu </i>
hut nguon kieu hdi. Trong nhUng
nam qua, ngudn kieu hdi khong
ngUng gia tang da lam giam dang
ke tham hut giQa tiet kiem va dau
tU d Viet Nam.

- Chu trong nang cao hieu qui
dau tU, dac biet la dau tUcua khu
vUc kinh te nha nUdc, ddng thdi
can cai thien hon nUa mdi trudng
dau tU, dac biet la khuyen khich
phat trien kinh te tu nhan. Hien
tai, dau tu cua khu vUc kinh te tu
nhan van cdn han che so vdi khu
vUc doanh nghiep nha nUdc va

doanh nghiep cd vd'n dau tU nUdc
ngoai.

- Chinh phu cung can that chat
chinh sach tai khoa bang each
that chat va cat giam cac dp an
cdng khdng hieu qua va chuyen
manh tU dau tU nha nUdc sang dau
tU tU nhan. Viec chuyen tU dau tu
nha nUdc sang diu tU tU nhan
khdng chi lam gia tang hieu qua
vd'n diu tu ma cdn lam giam np
cua Chinh phu.

- Chinh phu cin that chat
hoat ddng vay vdn cua khu vUc
cdng, dac biet la viec cho cac
doanh nghiep nha nUdc vay va
cac khoan vay thuc hien cac du
an cdng khdng mang tinh cap
thiet.

- Khic phuc nhUng han che
trong dieu hanh NSNN. Khai
thac tdi da cac ngudn thu va
thay ddi cd ca'u thu NSNN theo
hudng hpp ly. Kiem soat va tiet
kiem chi NSNN, phan bd chi
hpp ly.D

• I T s f a h a S K I m cd TAC H M T * sin n b - r a i M M
TRONG NAM 2011

Bdt dau to ngdy 1/1/2011, hdng loat chinh sdeh mdi se dupe ap dung, co tdc dpng
ldn tdi hoat dpng sdn xudt, kinh doanh trong nhieu linh vyc. ngdnh nghe quan trpng.

<i>Mien, gidm thu& sd dung ddt nong nghiep trong W nam. Nghi quyet so' </i>
55/2010/QH12 cua Qudc hpi ve mien, gidm thue sd dung ddt ndng nghiep CSDDNN),
co hieu lyc td ngdy 1/1/2011 den het ngdy 31/12/2020 thUc sd co y nghTa ldn dd'i vdi
10 trieu hpi vien Hpi Nong ddn vd khodng 70% ddn sd Viet Nam d ndng thdn.

Doi tupng dupe mien thue SDDNN gdm: ddt nong nghiep phuc vy nghien cdu, sdn
xudt thd nghiem; ddt trong cdy hdng ndm cd it nhdt 1 vy lua trong ndm; ddt Idm
muoi; ddt ndng nghiep dupe Nhd nddc giao cho hp ngheo; ddt ndng nghiep ddpc
Nhd nddc giao de sdn xudt ndng nghiep (SXNN); hp gia dinh, cd nhdn Id xd vien hpp
tdc xd SXNN dd nhpn ddt giao khoan dn dinh; hp gia dinh, cd nhdn Id Idm trudng
vien dd nhpn ddt giao khoan dn dinh de SXNN vd hp gia dinh. cd nhdn SXNN gdp
ddt cua minh de thdnh Ipp hpp tdc xd SXNN. Gidm 50% thue dd'i vdi: dien tich vUpt
han mdc giao nhdng khdng qud hpn mdc nhpn chuyen nhypng; ddt ndng nghiep
Nhd nddc giao cho cdc td chdc kinh te, td chdc chinh tri - xd hpi. td chdc nghe
nghiep. ddn vi sy nghiep vd cdc dan vi khdc dang tryc tiep SXNN; ddt ndng nghiep
Nhd nude giao cho lyc lypng vu trang pudn ly, sd dyng.

<i>Tang lu'dng toi thieu vung doi vdi doanh nghiep. Theo Nghi dinh so </i>
107/2010/ND-CP vd Nghi dinh sd 108/2010/ND-107/2010/ND-CP cua Chinh phu, td ngdy 1/1/2011, lUdng tdi thieu
vung ddi vdi lao dpng Idm viec tpi doanh nghiep trong nddc vd doanh nghiep cd
vdn ddu tu nddc ngodi dypc dieu chtnh tdng them 100.000-370.000 ddng/thdng. Cy
the nhd sau: ddi vdi ngddi lao dpng Idm viec tpi khu vyc doanh nghiep trong nude,
mdc Mong tdi thieu vung 1 Id 1.350.000 dong/thdng. vung 2 Id 1.200.000 dong/thdng,
vung 3 Id 1.050.000 dong/thdng, vung 4 Id 830.000 dong/thdng.

Dd'i vdi ngddi lao dpng Idm vipc tai khu vyc doanh nghiep cd vdn ddu td nUdc
ngodi. mdc Iddng tdi thieu vung 1 Id 1.550.000 dong/thdng, mdc vung 2 Id
1,350,000 dong/thdng, mdc vung 3 Id 1.170.000 dong/thdng vd mdc vung 4 Id
1.100,000 dong/thdng.

<i>Doanh nghiep tif in hoa ddn. Theo Nghi dinh sd 51/2010/ND-CP cua Chinh phu </i>
ban hdnh ngdy 14/5/2010 ve hda ddn bdn hdng hda. cung dng dich vy, bdt ddu td
ndm 2011, doanh nghiep se ty in hda ddn md khdng cdn mua hda ddn td cd quan
thue nhd trddc ddy. Sy kien ndy dypc ddnh gid Id se thay ddi todn bp nhpn thdc vd
thyc hien ve hda ddn chdng td tren todn qudc khi trao quyen ty chu cho doanh
nghipp trong viec sd dyng hda ddn, chiu trdch nhiem ve hda dan phdt hdnh, gidi
quyet tinh trgng doanh nghiep phdi xep hdng chd mua hda dan tpi ca quan thue.

Doanh nghiep cd the sd dung lai sd hda ddn cu dd in trong vdng 4 - 6 thdng ddu
ndm 2011 nhdng phdi ddng ky vdi cd quan thue, neu doanh nghiep khdng mudn sd
dung hda dan cu thi Idm thu tyc xin huy hda don.

<i>Nqp thue qua Internet, Mobile, ATM. Theo Thdng ty sd 180/2010/TT-BTC cua Bp Tdi </i>
chinh hudng ddn giao dich dien td trong linh vyc thue, td ngdy 1/1/2011, ngydi npp
thue cd the Ida chpn cdc hinh thdc npp thue dien td nhd: giao dich tryc tiep vdi
ngdn hdng noi ngddi npp thue md tdi khoan thdng qua cdc kenh giao dich dien td
(Internet. Mobile, ATM) cua ngdn hdng de thdc hien thu tyc npp thue hope thdng
qua cdng thdng tin dipn td cua cd quan thue.

Thu tyc ddng ky thue dien td Id ngddi npp thue Ipp Td khai ddng ky thue dipn td
tryc tuyen tren cdng thu thue dien td cua cd quan thue hope Ipp bdng cdc phdn
mem. cdng cy ddp dng chudn dinh dpng dd lieu cua cd quan thue. Sau dd, ngddi
npp thue gdi hd sd ddng ky thue dipn td den cd quan thue thdng qua cdng thu thue
dien td cua cd quan thue. Sau khi nhpn ddpc ho sd, cp quan thue gdi Thdng bdo

xdc nhdn npp ho sa ddng ky thue dipn td cho ngddi npp thue.

<i>8 nhom hang chju thue moi trUdng. Theo Lupt Thue bdo ve mdi trddng cd hieu </i>
lde td ngdy 1/1/2011, cd 8 nhdm hdng hda se chiu thue bdo ve mdi trddng, trong dd
cd nhdm hdng hda xdng ddu, dung dich HCFC, tui nilon, thudc bdo qudn Idm sdn,
thudc khd trung. cdc loai thudc trd md'i hgn che sd dung,.. Ddy Id nhdng mpt hdng
khi sd dyng se cd tdc dpng xdu den mdi trydng sinh thdi.

<i>Doanh nghiep vien thong tu* chu ban hanh gia cudc co dinh nqi hat. TC/1/1/2011. </i>
gid eddc dipn thoai cd djnh npi hat se ddpc thyc hi#n theo cd che thj trydng. Quy

djnh ndy dp dung dd'i vdi tdt cd cdc doanh nghiep cung dng d|ch vy dien thogi cd
dinh. Ddi vdi VNPT - ddn vj dang chiem khodng 70% thj phdn dipn thoai cd djnh cd nude - se phdi bdo edo phyong dn gid trddc moi ldn dieu chinh gid bdn. cd hi#u lyc td ngdy 1 /2/2011, phi xdy dpng ddpc mien nhdm gdp phdn gidm chi phi, gidm thu tuc hdnh chinh cho ngddi ddn vd khuyen khich cdc nhd ddu td ddy manh ddu tu vdo linh vyc xdy dyng cdng trinh. •<i>Mien phi xdy duhg. Theo Quyet djnh sd 80/2010/QB-TTg cua Thu tudng Chinh phu </i> p v

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