Những yếu tố quyết định tình trạng mức sinh thấp tại vùng Đông Nam bộ và gợi mở chính sách dân số ở Việt Nam

42

Xd hpi hpc, sd I (137), 2017

NHCTNG YEU TO QUYET DINH TINH TRANG MUC SINH THAP

T^I VUNG DONG NAM B O VA GQI MC) CHO
CHINH SACH DAN SO CJ VIET NAM
NGUYEN DCC VINH'
Tdm tdt: Theo kit qud dieu tra quoc gia gdn ddy, long ty sudt sinh ciia vimg Dong
Nam Bp dd gidm khd sdu dudi miic sinh thay Ihe. Dua tren so liiu vd Dieu Ira ddn sd va
nhd d gida itp ndm 2014 vd khung phdn tich mic sinh thdp cua Bongaarts (2001), cdc
phdn tich cho thdy, ty li phu nii chira kit hon tang cao chinh Id nguyen nhdn chu yeu ddn
din long ty sudt sinh thdp a viing Dong Nam Bp. Viic gidm long ty sudt sinh xuong dudi
muc thay the Id hijn lupng khd phd biin khixd h^iphdt triin vd hijn dpi hoa den muc dp
nhdt dinh, ngay cd khi hau hit cdc gia dinh diu vdn mong mudn co 2 con. Kit qud ndy
gpi y viic xem xet ndi long vd da dgng hoa chinh sdch hgn chi sinh de hiin cho phii hpp
voi ddc diem kinh te, xd hpi vd bien dpng nhdn khdu hpc, chudn bi chinh sdch khuyen sinh
hap ly, chu trpng duy Iri chudn muc quy mo gia dinh 2 con.
Tdr khod: mite sinh, miic sinh thip, yeu td quyet djiih mire sinh, Ddng Nam Bg.

1. Boi cdnh
Qua ba thdp ky cua qud Irinh Doi mdi, Vi^t Nam da dat dugc nhieu thdnh ti;u ding
ghi nhan trong s\r nghigp phdt tridn kinh t6 - xi hgi ddt nude. Ciing trong giai do^n nay,
Vi?t Nam trdi qua thdi ky qud dd ddn s6 vdi nhimg thay doi Idn ve mirc sinh, miic chit, di
cu. Cling nhu ve quy md va phin bd ddn sd. Nhung bien dgng nhan khau hgc nhu vay
ludn c6 s\r tuong ho kha chdt chS vdi qud trinh phit triin kmh ih xd hdi d moi quoc gia.
Do dd, vi?c tdn dyng toi da tiem ning dan sd ciing nhu han che, iing phd vdi nhihig tic
dgng khdng thuan Igi ciia bien dgng nhdn khau hgc la didu rit quan trgng trong xay d\mg
chinh sdch vi chien luge phdt tri^n ciia Vi$t Nam trong giai doan hi^n nay.
Miic sinh la mgt trong nhung ySu to nhdn khdu hgc quan trgng nhat quyit djnh quy

md, CO cau ciia mdt ddn sd trong hi?n l^i vd tucmg lai. Miic sinh cao so vdi miic chet
thudng dan d6n tdng quy md ddn so, tdc ddng tiSu c\rc den mdi trudng sinh thdi vd cdc
myc lieu phat trien kinh te xd hgi. Ngugc Iai, niu miic sinh qud thdp sg dan din nguy co
gia hda dan so nhanh, thieu hgt I\ic lugng lao dgng, gia ting nhihig van de an sinh xa hdi
bat cap, Dieu ndy cang nghiSm trgng neu xay ra voi nhihig din so cdn dang trong qud
Vifn Xa hpi hpc, Viin Hdn Idm Khoa hpc Xd hpi VijI Nam


Nguyen Due Vinh 43
trinh phat trien, ndng suat lao dgng chua cao. Chinh vi vay. hiu het cic quoc gia tren the
gidi deu cd kha nhiiu n5 lire trong vi$c xdy dyng ehinh sich nhdm diiu chinh hoac thich
ling vdi mtie sinh. Theo bao cdo ciia Lien hgp quoc vao ndm 2013, trong tdng sd gdn 200
qudc gia Ihdnh vien thi cd 27% dp dgng chinh sdch gidm sinh, 43% dp dyng chinh sich
khuyin sinh. va da sd qudc gia cdn lai cd chinh sich duy tri miic smh hi?n tai (UN, 2013).
Viet Nam d i ap dung chinh sdch gidm sinh tir nhimg ndm 60 ciia thi kJ trudc, Cho
ddn nay, mgt trong nhung myc tieu trong Chiin luge dan sd ciia Viet Nam la tiep tyc
gidm tdng ty suit smh, xudng 1,8 con vdo ndm 2020 (Chinh phii, 2011). Phap lenh Dan sd
liien hdnh van quy dinh mdi c|ip vg chdng chi sinh 1 hodc 2 con (Qudc hdi, 2013) khdng
phdn bi$t vimg hay tinh/thanh phd cd miic sinh cao hay thap, Viet Nam vln chua cd chinh
saeh nao true tiip khuyin khieh sinh dd tuy dd thyc hi?n mgt sd chinh sdch xd hdi ed thi
giin tiep khuyen sinh khdng chu dich. Thdi gian gdn ddy, dd cd mgt sd khuyin nghi nSn
sdm bd quy djnh han che sinh de nhdm tranh miic sinh giam sdu dSn den tinh tr^uig gid
hda ddn so qui nhanh (TCTK vd UNFPA, 2016). Do cung Id bai hgc kinh nghi?m trong
thyc hien chinh sdch sinh de d mgt sd qudc gia vd vung lanh tho trii qua qui dd din so
trudc Vi$t Nam nhu Thai Lan, Trung Qudc, Dii Loan, Han Quoc, Nhat Ban (Chen, 2012;
Hirschman va cgng sy, 1994; Lee, 2009; Morgan va cdng sy, 2009; Suzuki. 2006 vd
2013). Ben canh do, cung cd y kiin cho ring qui sdm de bd quy djnh mdi cdp vg chdng
chi sinh I hodc 2 con boi dieu dd se 1dm miic sinh ting trd ltd. Cd le vl the nen sau khi
ban hanh Phdp l^oh Dan sd nam 2003 khdng djnh moi cdp vg chong cd quyen quyit dinh
v i thcri gian sinh con, sd con va khodng each giiia cdc ldn sinh (Quoc hgi 2003) thi Phap

l?nh Dan sd siia ddi nam 2008 (hgp nhdt ndm 2013) lai quy dinh rd chinh sdch sinh 1
hodc 2 con (Quoc Hgi, 2008). Dy thao Luit Dan so khdng cd quy dinh cy the ve sd con,
nhung chii truong giam sinh a dja phuang c6 miic sinh cao. tdng sinh d dia phuong cd
miic sinh qud thdp (Qudc hdi, 2017). Tuy nhien, bg luit nay cdn dang trong qua trinh xem
xet v i c6 the chinh siia them nen van chua chinh thirc dugc thdng qua vd ban hanh. Tinh
tr?ng nay cho thiy, cac nha ldp phdp va qudn ly van khd din do trong vi^c quyit dinh
chinh saeh sinh de 6 Vi^t Nam cho giai doan sdp tdi.
Theo nhiing sd Ii?u Ihdng ke cdng bd chinh thiic thi tong X^j suat sinh (TFR) ciia
Viet Nam khi 6n dinh d gan miic sinh thay the (2,1) trong mdt thap nien qua, nhung sy
khdc biet vi TFR theo vimg dia ly gia tang. Vao nim 2014, trong khi TFR ciia vung ddng
bdng sdng Hdng Id 2,3 thi TFR cua vimg Ddng Nam Bd chi 1,56, vd d thanh phd Hd Chi
Mmh Ii dudi 1,4 (TCTK v i UNFPA, 2016). Ket qud khao sdt nim 2015 cho thay, TFR a
vimg Ddng Nam Bg da tang len 1,63 nhung vln cdn thap hon mirc smh thay the khi
nhiiu (TCTK, 2016). So vdi cic vimg khdc trdn todn qudc, Ddng Nam Bg Id vimg cd thu
nh§p binh quan diu ngudi cao nhat va dan dau vi nhiiu chi tieu phat trien kinh te xd hgi.
Cau hdi ddt ra Ii nhihig ylu to x i hdi vi nhan khdu hgc ndo lien quan den mirc sinh thap d
vimg nay'' Niu nhu miie sinh gidm sau la xu hudng chung a Vi?t Nam trong qud trinh
phit triin thi th\rc ti ndy ddi hdi cd nhihig hi?u chinh chinh sdch kiem sodt mirc smh kip
thdi vi phil hgp. Cho din nay, nghien ciru vi mirc sinh thdp d Vi$t Nam cdn rat I ^ che
vi cd le mdi chi dugc di cap din trong mdt chuyen khdo gan day cua Tong cyc thong ke


44

Nhiing yiu td quyel djnh Tmh Irgng mdc sinh thdp...

vi Quy Ddn so Lien hgp qudc (TCTK vd UNFPA, 2016). Chuydn khdo dira ra nhdn dinh
ring tudi kit hdn tdng, gidm ty Ig kit hdn, vd qui trinh dd thi hda cd thi Id cdc nguySn
nhdn chinh dan din miic sinh khd thip d mgt sd tinh thinh vio ndm 2014, Tuy nhien phan
tich ndy cdn khd so luge vd khdng thyc hi?n rieng cho vimg Ddng Nam Bd- Do do, vi?c

phin tich lim hieu sdu hrm dgng thii ve muc sinh thip 6 vimg Ddng Nam Bd Id can thiit
nhim cung cip them co sd khoa hgc gdp phan xdy dyng chinh sdch dan so cho giai doEin
tiip theo sao cho hiSu qua va phi hgp vdi myc tieu phit trien bin vimg.
2. Co* so-1^ lu^n v i phuwng phip
Co sd di phdn tich cdc yeu td kinh le - xd hdi vd nhdn khau hgc quydt djnh miic
sinh la mgl sd Iy thuyit dan so vd cic kit qud nghien ciiu dan so hgc xa hgi ve gidm sinh.
Ly thuyet qua dg ddn sd md ta vd gidi thich sy chuyin doi mang tinh quy luat ciia cic ddn
sd tir muc chit vd mirc sinh deu cao sang miic chet thap vi mirc sinh thdp do tdc dgng cua
qua trinh hien dai hda va cdng nghiep hda. Do miic chet thudng gidm tiudc miic sinh nSn
d ^ din giai doan cd miic sinh eao hon miic chet vi quy md dan sd ting nhanh
(Casterline 2003). Nhu vdy, theo ly thuyit qui do din sd thl giam miic chit khdng chi cd
mdi lien he md cdn Id dgng lyc quan trgng ciia gidm miic sinh.
Tuy nhien, chi rieng miic chit cimg nhu ly thuyit qui dd din sd ndi chung khdng
dii de giii thich mgi bien dgng mirc sinh, nhdt Id v£ tdc dg gidm sinh hay hien tugng miic
sinh gidm xudng dudi miic thay the, Cac nhi nliien ciiu dd dua ra mdt sd md hinh gidi
thich tryc tiep miic sinh dya tren cdc yeu td sinh hgc cua qua trinh sinh sin, hay cdn ggi la
cic yeu td quyet dinh miic sinh gan sat. Phdt trien tir luge dd cila Davis vd Blake (1956),
Bongaarts (1978) dua ra md hlnh gom 7 yeu td quyit dinh mirc sinh gan sat mi trong dd
cd 4 yeu Id chinh la: chi sd kit hdn, sir dyng trdnh thai, nao phd thai, va nudi con bing sihi
m?, Thyc te cho thay, cdng thiic tinh TFR dya tren muc sinh tif nhien ciing 4 yeu to ndy
den (Bongaarts, 1978) td ra khd ehinh xic vd dd dugc dp dyng pho bien trong nghien cihi
ve miic sinh tren the gidi, trong dd cd cd Vi?t Nam (vi dy: Haughton, 1997), Dieu nay djc
bi?t hi^u qua trong xiy dyng cdc chinh sich giam smh d cic ddn sd ed miic sinh cao
thdng qua khuyen khieh ket hdn mugn, sir dyng trdnh thai hi?u qud, nudi con bdng siia m?
va cd thi cho phep nao thai.
Khi miic sinh gan miic thay the hodc thdp hon, md hinh cOa Bongaarts (1978) tuy
van cd the dp dyng nhung khdng cd niiiiu -y nghia thuc tien bdi tinh trang nay thudng xdy
ra nhimg ddn so d mirc phat triin kinh te xd hgi trung binh trd len, nhu ciu trdnh thai,
tranh sinh dl ddng dugc dap iing. Tir thuc tien dd, Bongaarts (2002 va 2001) dd di xuat
md hlnh udc lugng miic sinh tir sd con mong mudn ciing vdi 6 nhdm yiu td lac dgng the

hi?n qua cdng thiic:
TFR = tPx. (F„ xFr1
(1)

Trong dd, TFR Id tdng ty suit smh thyc ti vd IP li trung binh s6 con mong muon.
Ba chi sd tiip theo Id cic yiu td Iim tang mirc sinh (hay so con) thyc ti so vdi so con
mong mudn nen thudng Idn hon 1, bao gom: F„ (sinh con ngoii •^ muin), F, (sinh thay


JVgiye w Ddc Vinh

45

the con bi chit) v i Fg{sit thich cd con trai/con gii). Ba chi so eu6i cimg li cic yiu ti lim
glim mOic smh thyc te so vdi so con mong mudn n&i thudng nhd hon 1: F, (tdng tu6i phu
nfl khi smh con), F, (vd smh), F, (nhung yiu t i c^uih tranh vdi smh con'). F^ thyc chit li
tap hgp nhiiiig 1^ do ngin cin phy nQ d^t s6 con mong mu6n nhir: di hgc, ban cdng vi§c,
khdng cd chdng, chi phi nudi con cao, chinh sich hgn chi smh dd...
6 dau thdi kJ qui dg, ddn sd thi miro sinh thudng cao hon so con mong mudn vi 3
yiu td lim tang ki tren ddng vai trd quan trgng trong vigc quyet djnh mfic sinh. Nhung d
cuoi va sau thdi kJ- qua dg ddn so thi so con mong mu6n thudi^ IdiA dn djnh xung quanh
mirc 2 con nhung miic smh thyc td lgi cd thi giim xu6ng thip hon s6 con mong mu^n.
Khi miic t« vong trd em khi thap, nhu chi trdnh thai dd phS b i ^ va dl ddng dugc dip
ling tid miic smh phy thudc nhiiu vio 3 ylu tS Iim gidm trong md hinh. Can luu S Id tic
ddng cua nhdm cic l:y do cgnh tranh (Fc) cd thi vura tryc tiep lim phy nH giim si con viia
thdng qua vide tri hoin suih con (F,), nen khi phdn tich cd thl phii tdch riSng hai tdc dgng
ndy. Md hmh ciia Bonggarts (2001) di dugc ip dyng trgng nhiiu nghidn cim ve mtie sinh
vd to ra khd hidu qui, nhit Id cho phdn tich miic sinh trung bhih vd thip d mdt so nude
phdt trien (Hageviien va Morgan, 2005; Morgan vd Taylor, 2006) cting nhu nude dang

phit triin (Dharmalmgam, Rajan va Morgan, 2014; Morgan, Zhigang v i Hayford, 2009).
Khi ip dyng md hinh ciia Bonggarts (2001) 1dm so sd cho phin tfch tramg miic sinh
thap 6 vdng Ddng Nam BO cin xem x^t m§t si ddc diim sau. Thii nhit, thyc ti Id 6 Vi|t
Nam hi^n nay ndi chimg vd nhat la d vimg Ddng Nam Bd, miic chit tr£ em d i khd thip
nSn it cd tdc ddng lam tfing mite smh. Cy thi theo kit qui diiu tra qu6c gia nim 2016, t j
suat chet trd em dirdi 1 tu5i v i tre em dudi 5 tuii d vimg niy lin lugt chi Ii 8,69io vi
12,996o (TCTK, 2016). T h ^ chi cd nghien ciiu di di xuat bd chi s6 i^, khi dp dyng cho
phdn tich miic smh t h ^ (Morgan vi Taylor, 2006). Thii hai, nhu ciu trinh thai d i phi
biin va de dang dugc ddp iing. M ^ dd cdn xiy ra nhiing trudng hgp cd thai ngodi f
mu6n, nhung do ngo phd thm rit de ddng tiip c|n d vimg niy nSn cd the gii thiet ty lg
smh con ngodi y mu6n Id rit thip. Thii ba, ft cd khi ndng tinh trang vd smh a vimg Ddng
Nam Bd cao hon hin cdc khu vyc khdc. Ngodi ra, cd thi gid thiit tdc ddng ciia vd sinh
iFi) tucmg duong vdi sinh con ngoM f miiin ( f „) nhung trdi ehieu nen tdc ddng ting hgp
Id rit nhd. Thii tu, liSn quan din nhiing yiu t i ngdn cin phy HO thyc hi|n s6 con mong
muon, chinh sich khuyen khieh cac gia dhih chi cd 1 ho§c 2 con dang dugc dp dyng
thing nhat d Vi§t Nam nen cd IS dd khdng phii Id nguyen nhin din din miic smh thip 6
rieng viing Ddng Nam B$. Vdi cdc gia thiit tr^n thi khi phin tich cho viing Ddng Nam
Bd, cdng thirc (1) cd thi dugc nit ggn thinh:
TFR = IPxFgX

FtXF,xFc

(2)

Nhir vgy, tir md Hnh cua Bonggarts (2001) c6 thi dua ra gii thuyit cdc yiu ti
chinh dan den miic sinh thip 6 viing Ddng Nam Bd bao g6m: si eon mong muin
khdng cao, tdng tuoi trung binh phy nS khi sinh con, sd thich cd con trai khdng mgnh
' Ti^ng Anh li "Competing preferences for children".

46

NhOng yeu Id quyii dinh linh ugng muc sinh lhap...

(nhu d Dong bdng sdng Hong), ty 16 kit hdn thip, ty 1$ phy nil di hgc hodc cd vi$c lam
phi ndng cao.
Nguon sd lieu dugc sii dung trong phin lich Id tir mdt so cugc diiu tra nhan khau
hgc qudc gia, trong dd chii yeu Id tir Tdng diiu tra dan sd vd nhi d cdc ndm 2009
(TDTDS) vd Dieu tra din so va nha d giua kj* ndm 2014 (DTDSGK). Cac bg si lifu ndy
khdng chi dai di?n cho dan so todn qudc md ci cip vimg va cip tinh/thdnh pho. Do bd sd
lidu DTDSGK khdng cd thdng tin vi vi|c Idm nfin phdn tich niy sir dyng miic dg dd thi
hda thay thi cho chi bdo vi vi?c lim phi ndng. Cac phdn tich dugc thyc hi?n khdng chi
rieng cho vimg Ddng Nam Bg md ci vdng E>dng bing sdng Hong de cd the so sinh, danh
gii cdc yeu td tdc dgng. Ngoii ra, phuong phip chuin hda ty suit ciing dugc dp dyng de
cd thyc hi?n cdc phdn tich so sdch, ddnh gid tdc ddng (xem Caselli, Vallm vi Wunsch,
2006:200).
3. Phan tich cac yiu to quyet djnh mii-c sinh thap ix viing Dong Nam b$
3.1. Sd thich CO con trai (F^
Sd thich cd con trai Ii yiu Id cd thi Iim gia tdng mirc sinh. Ci Vi?t Nam, di cd
nghien ciiu cho thiy trong giai doan 2009-2014, xdc suit sinh con thii 3 khi hai con diu Ii
con gdi cao hon hdn so vdi nhiing truong hgp dd cd con trai (TCTK and UNFPA 2016).
Nhu vgy, cd thi dua ra gii thuyit Id sd thich cd con trai d vimg Ddng Nam Bg khdng
manh vd dieu dd gdp phdn lam cho mirc sinh d viing ndy thip hon han vimg Dong bdng
song Hdng. Di kiim dinh gia thuyit nay. Bang 1 trinh bay kit qui phdn tich long ty suit
sinh ndm 2014 ciia vimg Dong bdng sdng Hong, viing Ddng Nam Bg vd todn qudc thinh
5 nhom dya tren gidi tinh cdc con cdn sdng ciia m3i phy nii trudc lin sinh cuoi ciia hg
trong khodng thdi gian tir thdng 4/2013 din hit thdng 3/2014.
Bing 1. Phan tieS\ TFR theo gidi tinh cdc con C6D s6Dg trade l^n siDh cu^i, 2014
Nhfim

DB song Hong

Dong Nam BQ

1

Chua c6 con

1,05

0.82

1,02

2

M^t con trai

0,47

0.34

Vi^lNam
0,44

3

MOt con %ii

0,46

0.29

0,39

4

Tren 1 con, chi con gii

O.IS

0,0S

0,11

5

Con trai vi gii

0,14

0,06

0,13

T6ng(TFRth\rctl)

2,30

1,56

2,09

Ty s6 Nhiim 4 / N]i6m 5
TFR*

1.28

0,74

0,84

2,26

1,57

H^s6fj

1.02

0,99

2,11
0,99

Ngudn. So hiu DTDSGK ndm 2014
Chli Ihich: • neu miic sinh cQa nhSm 4 bang ciia nhbm 5.

So sdnh kSt qud cho nhdm 4 va nhdm 5 Ihi ed thi thiy, d vung Dong bdng sdng
Hdng, tong ly sudt sinh thanh phan ciia nhdm "cd 2 con gii trd Ien" Id 0,18, cao hon dang

ki so vdi nhdm "cd cd con trai va con gii" (0,14) vi ty so chenh l§ch hai nhdm li 1,28.


Nguyen Ddc Vinh 4?
Stf khdc bi§t niy chiing td d viing D^ng bdng sdng H^ng, sd thich cd con trai da gdp phin
1dm tdng TFR (F, li 1,02). Trong khi dd, sy khie bi^t d viing Ddng Nam Bd thip hon hdn
(0,05 va 0,06), th§m chi cd xu hudng ngugc 1^ vdi t j s6 ehgnh l$ch la 0,74 (Fg li 0,99).
Niu so thich cd con trai d viing Ddng bing song H6ng cung thip nhu d vimg Ddng
Nam Bg thi cd thi dp dyng t j s6 0,74 v i khi dd, t j suit smh thinh phin eua nhdm "cd 2
COB gdi tro ldn" 6 viing D^ng bing sdng H6ng vio nim 2014 se chi Id 0,1 vi TFR sS li
2,22. Ngugc lgi neu i p dyng t j s6 1,28 cho viing Dong Nam Bg thi t j suit smh thinh
phin cfia nhdm "c6 2 con gai trd Ien" d vdng niy s5 li 0,08 v i TFR se la 1,59. Kit qud so
sdnh tuong ty giua nhdm 2 (chi cd 1 con trai) va nhdm 3 (chi cd 1 con gii) cQng cho thiy
miic dg tic ddng khdng Ion. Diiu nay khdng mlu thuin vdi kit qua til phan tich gin ddy
cho toin qu6c trong giai dogn 2009-2014 (TCTK v i UNFPA, 2016). Nhu vdy, cd the kit
lugn la sd thich co eon trai dd gdp phin vio tinh trgng miic sinh ndm 2014 d vimg Ddng
Nam Bg thip hon muc sinh 6 vimg Ddng bdng sdng Hdng, nhung tdc d§ng li khd nhd.
Ngay ci d vimg Ddng bing sdng H&ng cung nhu toan qu6c ndi chung thi sd thich cd con
trai tuy Idm gia tSag t^ so gioi tinh khi sinh, nhung khdng tdc ddng ldn din miic smh.
3.2. Gia tang luSiphff nit kbi sinh con (F^
Khi tu6i tnmg bbih ciia phy nil khi shih con ting (hay gidm) thl TFR cihig giim
(hay tfing) theo cho dii tdng so eon dy djnh sS sinh eua mSi phy nQ Id khdng dii, Nhu vgy,
vigc phy nft thay d6i tudi khi sinh con cd thi tgm thdi inh hirdng den miic sinh ciia ndm
tuong fing (TFR) nhimg khdng lam thay d6i mile sinh dodn h$. Di ddnh gid tdc dgng ciia
v i ^ tfing hay giam tuoi trung blnb cila phy nii khi sinh con din miic suih, Bongaarts v i
Feeney (1998) d i dua ra cdng thiic:

TFR'=

IJFRi/Cy-Ti)

Trong dd: TFRt td ting ^ suit sinh tfnh cho lin sinh con thit /; n t i miic thay dii
tuoi
ioi hlnh quan phy mi khi smh con lin thd i (tinh bdng si tuoi thay doi trung binh mSi
"; TFR' l i ting ty' suat suih hifu chhih (tirong ung vdi khi tu6i trung bhih phy nil tai
Ji sinh con khdng thay ddi).
Bang 2. Tdc d^ng cda tang tudi kbi sinh con d^D TFR cOa viing Bbag Nam B^ ni^ 2014
linamhlbC:

TFR,

TFR)

2014

2014

0,78

34,19

0.105
0,144

0,77
0,70
0,15

35,20

-0,130

0,63
0,13
0,03

2009

2014

26,25

2

30,65

26,20
31,18

3
4+
TinatTFR)

33,47
35,85

'•
-0,010

Tii6i t n u e binh phv nCt khi sinh con

,I

1,56

0.03
1,64

Ngudn: SS liiu TDTDS ndm 2009 vi Bihi tra Nhdn khdo hpc giCta k^ nUm 2014
Bing 2 trinh biy kit qui ip dyng cdng thiic (4) cho miic sinh vimg E)dng Nam Bd
nfim 2014. Vi§c phy nii sinh con mugn hon, chii yiu la d lin smh t h i 2 v i thii 3, di Idm
giam TFR cila vOng Ddng Nam B$ ndm 2014 khoang 0,08 con, tuong iing vdi hf s6 i^, =


48

NliOngyiu td quyel d/nh tinh Irpng muc sinh lhap...

1,56 / (1,56 + 0,08) = 0,95, Niu khdng cd biin dgng vi tuoi phy nii khi sinh con tW TFR
cila vimg Ddng Nam Bg se li khodng 1,64, van khd thap so vdi miic smh thay the cQng
nhu so vdi TFR ciia cdc viing khac d Viet Nam. Nhiing tinh todn tuong tu udc lugng
dugc he sd F, la 1,0 cho viing Ddng bdng sdng Hdng va 0,97 cho todn qudc. Nhu vdy,
viec biin thien tuoi trung binh phu nii khi sinh con khdng anh hudng din TFR vung Dong
bdng sdng Hdng ndm 2014, nhung dd lam gidm TFRvimg Ddng Nam Bg cfing nhu TFR
cila loan qudc vdi miic dg khdng qua Ion.
3.3. Cdc yeu tS cgnh tranh
Do Fc la tgp hgp kha nhiiu nhOng yiu to ngdn cdn phu na dat so con mong muon,
phdn tich nay chi tap Irung vdo hai yiu id quan trong nhit Id tinh trgng hdn nhdn (Fd) va
do thi hoa (Fc2)- Trong dd, ly le do thi hda dugc sii dung de thay the cho chi bdo ve miic
do phu nu tham gia Idm vi£c phi ndng. Cdc yeu td khac nhu: di hgc, chi phi nuoi con cao.

chinh saeh hgn chi smh de... dugc gii thiit chi la cd tac dgng rit nhd hoac khdng khac
biel dang ke giiia viing Dong bdng sdng Hdng vi Ddng Nam Bg.
Fc = Fci X Frt X F„

(4)

* Tinh trgng hon nhdn ciia phu nii (Fd)
Do miic sinh ngodi hdn nhan d Viet Nam v ^ cdn rat thap nen tinh trgng hdn nhan
ludn cd tdc ddng mgnh den tdng ty suat sinh. Hinh 1 cho thay vio ndm 2014, tyl^phii nii
dang cd chdng d viuig Ddng Nam Bd ludn ihip hon dang ki so vdi d Dong bdng sdng
Hdng (DBSH) trong tit ca cic nhdm tudi tCi 20-24 den 45-49. Nhu vgy, rit cd the co can
hdn nhdn chinh la yeu td quan trgng nhat dan den khac biet vd mirc sinh giiia hai viing,
Hinh I. Phan bo tinh trang hnn nbSn ciia phu nu theo nhom tuoi
il Dung bang song Hong vk Bong Nam B$ v^o n^m 2014
—•—EIBSH ChvaK^hAn
—•—DNB Chira Kei nan

100

80

" ^

—•^Oangcicltbas
• Bang cO cli&ng

f~

—•—LyhOn (ylhan gOs
—B—Ly hOn. ly ttidn. gita

•

'

f

70

%so

40
30
70

5-19

20-24

Nguon So liifu DTDSGK ndm 2014.

25-29

30^4
Nh6m tuA

35-39

40-44

45-49

Nguyin Due Vinh 49
_ Dexac dinh chi so tie ddng cua co cdu hdn nhin den miic sinh (F,.), cdch don gidn
nhat Id lay ngay ty 1? phy nii dang cd ching trong todn bg phy nii 15^9 tuoi. Tuy nhien
do khong phai Id cdch tdi uu bdi khdng tinh din co ciu ciia tuoi cua phy nii Hon nira, khi
so con mong mudn khd thip tiii TFR cd thi dgt gid tri nay ngay ci khi ty IS phy wi cd
chdng dudi 100% khi nhiiu.
So ligu truih bay tgi Bdng 3 cho tiidy, cdc ty suit sinh dac trung theo mii (ASFR)
duge tmh rieng cho ba nhdm linh trang hdn nhdn ciia phy n& hai vimg. Ket qui cho thay,
trong nhdm sinh sin chii yeu la phy nii dang cd chdng thl vimg Ddng Nam Bg cd ASFR d
cdc nhdm tudi dudi 35 thip hon dang ki so vdi vimg Dong bdng sdng Hdng, nhung Igi
nhinh hon d cic nhdm mdi 35-39 yd 40-49. Trong khi dd, sinh de ngoai hdn nhdn d cd hai
vimg deu kha thip va chi gdp phin rit nhd vao long ty suit sinh. Nhin chung, miic sinh
ciia phy nii chua ket hdn d Ddng bdng sdng Hong cao hon d vimg Ddng Nam Bd, nhit li
nhdm tuoi 35-39 (19,l%o). Trong khi dd, miic sinh cua nhdm phu nQ ly hdn/Iy thin/gda d
viing Ddng Nam Bg lai eao hon, d|c biet li d cdc nhdm 15-19 vi 20-24 mii.
Bang 3. TJ suit sinb djc Irimg theo tu6i vii tinh tr^ng h6n nh§D, 2014

Dong bdng song Hdng:
Chua ket hon
C6 vg/chSng
Ly hSn, ly thSn, g<)a
Chung
Chu^n hii theo co cau
h6n nhSn toin qu^c
N (chua gia quy^n)
Dong Nam BpChua k^t hSn
C6 vphhhag
Ly hSn, ly thdn, %6a

Chung
Chuin h6a theo co cau
hdn nhSn l o ^ quoc
N (chua gia quyen)

15-19

T* suit sinh d?c tnmg theo m6i (Koi
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
4044

0,2
340,8
0,0
21,3

1.1
291,7
78,7
133,3

1,6
191,0
77,5
163,2

5,8

105,1
18,2
97,4

19,1
35,1
10,2
33,3

0,0
10,9
3,4
9,9

TFR
45-49
0,0
0,9
0.0
0,8

O.Ol'
2.27*
0,0!*
2,30

31,1

131,7

152.4

93,7

32,9

9,7

0.7

2,26

S6S9

10097

10076

9927

8980

8899

8197

64865

0,3
271,3

235,8
15,8

0,8
191,4
105,6
62,9

0,7
152,3
31,3
103,4

1.5
97 ,S
8,8
80,8

2,6
43,5
13.9
37,6

0,0
11,8
0.S
9,6

0.0
1.4

0,6
1,2

0,01"
1,53*
0,02*
1,56

25,3

87.1

120,6

S6,5

39,7

10,3

1,3

1.85

5718

7826

8077

7583

6655

6142

5444

47445

Chii thich. • TFR thinhph^, tong bang TFR chung,
Ngudn: S6 lieu DTDSGK
ndm 2014.
Sau khi dugc "chuin hda" theo co ciu tmh trgaig hdn nhdn cila phy nfl' todn quoc roi
tong hgp thanh tong ty suat sinh diiu chhih (TFR'), ty si giQa TFR vd TFR' chinh Ii hg
sd Fci cin udc lugng. Ca cau hdn nhdn cila phy nii toan quoc dugc sii dyng 1dm tham
chiiu li hgp ly bdi 2 con dd tro thdnh quy md gia dinh phd biin va TFR cila Vi^t Nam
khd on dinh gan mUc smh thay thi Uong thap ky qua. Vdi each tinh nhu viy, vimg Ddng
bdng sdng Hong cd tong ty suit sinh dieu chinh TFR' Id 2,26, vd h | sd Fd = 2,26 / 2,30 =
1,02. Tuong ty, vung Ddng Nam Bg cd long ty suit sinh dieu chinh TFR' Ii 1,85 vi hg


50

Nhungyiu to quyel djnh linh trgng muc sinh thap...

sd Fc! = 1,85 /1,56 = 0,84. Nhu vdy, co ciu hdn nhan dd gdp phin ddng ke cho tinh trgng
mile sinh thap d Ddng Nam Bg ciing nhu sy khdc bigt ve mirc sinh giita hai vimg.
* Muc dp do thl hoa (Fci)
Phdn tich d muc tren cho thay tinh trgng hdn nhdn la m§t yeu td tdc ddng mgnh den

miic sinh, nhung chinh tinh trang hdn nhdn cung thudng bj dnh hudng nhieu bdi dd thj
hoa. Vi vgy, khi udc lugng h? sd tac dgng ciia dd thi hda den mirc sinh (FVj), cin tach
rieng phin tac dgng thdng qua tinh trang hdn nhan da the hi|n trong hf sd Fd- De Iim
dugc nhu vay, cd thi dp dung mdt phucmg phap khd don gian nhung higu qui Ii "chuan
hda" cdc ASFR theo ly le dd tiij hda todn qudc ciia cic nhdm tudi phu nii tuong iing,
nhung giii co ciu tinh trgng hdn nhan khdng doi, rdi tdng hgp thdnh ting ty suit sinh dieu
chinh (TFR').
Biing 4. Ty suat sinh d^c trung theo tu6l it hai viing theo khu vifn vi tinh tr^ng hon nhfin

Bong bdng sdng Hdng:
Thdnh thj
Chua k€t hon. g6a. Iy hon
Dang c6 chang

20-24

0,3
391,3

2.1
307,7

0.2

1.7
286,1

Chung
Chudn hoa

Chua kll han, g6a,ly hdn
Dang c6 ch&ng
Chung
Chudn hoa

6.4
202,1

5,4
121,7

5,9
35,5

0.0
13,2

0,0
1,6
2.35

328,3
21.3
21,1

Dong Nam Bp:
Thdnh thi
Chua kit h6n, g6a, ly hSn
Dang CO chong
Wong thon

TFR
45-49
2,19

Ndng than
Chua ket h6n, g6a, ly hon
Dang c6 ch6ng

Tys u^l sinh d^c trung theo tu6i (%o)
30-34
40-44
25-29
35-39

15-19

12,2

14,4

19,1

3,5

0.0

95,3
97,4
96,8

34,9

9.7

133,3
133,2

185,1
163,2
162,9

33,3
33.3

9,9
%9

0,6
0,8
0.8

1,0
169,0

2,3

2,5

6,7

0,0

0,5

154,4

102,6

45,1

11,3

1,7

8.6

1.4
12.5

0.0

2.30
2,29
1,44

0.0
242,3

1,78

2.0

7.3

6,9

296,3

222,8

148,8

5,0
89,6

40,9

15,8

62,9

103,4

80,8

37,6

17,3

69,8

102,6

77.9

36.7

9.6
9,9

1.0
1,2
1,0

1,56
1.58

Ngudn: Sd liiu DTDSGK ndm 2014

d cdc vimg nhu tit ca cdc tinh thdnh d Vi?t Nam, miie sinh d khu vyc thinh thi
ludn thip hon d khu vyc ndng thdn. So sdnh vdi Ddng bdng sdng Hong thi cd thi Ihay
viing Ddng Nam Bg khdng chi cd tj' I? dan so thanh thi cao hon md sy khac bi$t vi miic
sinh giua khu vuc ndng thdn va thdnh thj ciing Idn hon. Cy the vio ndm 2014, neu chi
tinh dan sd nir trong dg tudi 15-49 thi ty If dd thj hda d viing Ddng Nam Bg Ii 64%, cao
gin gap ddi so vdi ty I? 34,4% d Dong bdng sdng Hong, TJ so TFR giiia khu vyc ndng
thdn vd thdnh thi d vimg Ddng Nam Bg Ii 1,24 (1,78 vi 1,44) so vdi chi 1,07 (2,35 vd


Nguyin Due Vmh 51
2,\9) d Ddng bdng sdng Hdng. Nhu vgy, do thj hda li mdt trong nhung ygu Id quan trgne

dan den su khdc bidt ve mirc sinh giQa hai vimg.
Theo kit qua trinh bay Irong Bang 4, d ci hai vimg, cdc ASFR vd TFR thuc ti d
khu vuc ndng tiidn tuy tiiudng cao hon d khu vyc thdnh thi, nhung niu linh riSng cho phy
nu^dang cd chdng thi su khdc biet giim di rat nhiiu. Tham chi, ASFR cila phy nii cd
chong d thanh tiij deu cao hon d ndng thdn trong hiu hit cdc nhdm tu6i, chl tir hai nhdm
tuoi 35-39 v i 40-44 d vung Dong Nam Bg. Chinh vi vgy nen sau khi chuin hda theo ty If
dd til! hda todn qudc nhung giir nguyen co ciu hdn nhan, ty suit smh cac nhom ludi diu
fliay doi rit it so vdi gia tiii thuc te va kit qud Id TFR hiu nhu khdng ddi d Ddng bing
sdng Hong (tir 2,30 xuong 2,29) va chi lang 0,02 d Ddng Nam Bd (lir 2,30 xuong 2,29).
Nhu viy, cd the ket luan Id hau hit tdc dgng eua do thj hda (trong phdn tich nay Ii chi' bdo
tiiay the cho miic dg phu nir tham gia lam viec phi ndng) din giim sinh deu tiidng qua
vifc gidm ty If kit hdn ciia phy nG. Chi sd Fc2 cho viuig Ddng bdng sdng Hong li 2,30 /
2,29 = 1,002 vi cho vimg Ddng Nam Bd Id 1,56 / 1,58 = 0,987. Kit hgp tinh trgng'hdn
nhdn {Fd) ydi do tiii hda {Fd) thi dugc chi so tie dgng khdc bift khd ldn giiia hai vm^:
1,02 cho Dong bing sdng Hdng va 0,83 cho Ddng Nam Bd
3.4. S6 con mong muon (IP)
Dieu lia Nhin khau hgc vd siic khde (DHS) nim 1997 vd 2002 Id cdc cude khdo sdt
quoc gia gan day nhat 6 Vift Nara thu thip thdng tin vi sd con mong mudn cua phu nii.
Theo so lifu trinh biy trong Bdng 5, trung binh sd con mong muin ciia phy nii da limg
ket hdn va trong dd tudi sinh de (15-49) gan nhu khdng thay ddi qua 2 ldn khdo sat: d
Dong bing sdng Hdng diing bdng miic sinh thay tiii (2,1) vd thap hon mdt chiit so vdi d
viing Ddng Nam Bg (2,4). D^c bift Id sd con mong mudn tuy khdng thay ddi theo cdc
nhdm tudi o Dong bdng sdng Hdng, nhung lai giam di kha rd d cac nhdm phy nii trS tai
vimg Ddng Nam Bg vd day cd thi Id mgt trong nhimg nguyen nhin TFR gidm nhanh d
vung niy trong thdi gian gan day.
Bdng 5. S6 con mong mu6n cda phg ni^ da t ^ g kll hSn, 1997 v& 2002
Nam 2002

Nam 1997
20-24

30-34

40-44

15-49

20-24

30-34

40-44

l5-t9

Dong bing s6ng Hdng

2,0

2,1

2,1

2,1

2,1

2.0

2,1

2,1

Ddng Nam BO

2,1

2,4

2,5

2.4

2,0

2,3

2.8

2,4

T o ^ qu6c

2,1

2,4

2,7

2.4

2.1

2,3

2,6

2,4

Nhdm tuSi ph^i nil

Ngudn: Diiu Ua Nhdn khdu hpc vd sue khoe (DHS), 1997 vd 2002.

Mgt so phin tich cho thay, md hinh gia dinh cd 2 con dd trd nen phi biin trong dan
so Vift Nam trong thdi gian gan day, ngoai trir d mdt sd dan tdc thieu so vd cdc tinh cham
phdt triin. Mirc sinh ciia cac nhdm miic sdng cung nhu cac nhdm hgc van phu nit ngiy
cang gidm khie bift vd hgi tu ve miic sinh tiiay tiie (TCTK and UNFPA, 2016). Do dd, it
cd kha ndng so con mong mudn trung bhih d viing Ddng Nam Bg thap hon nhieu so vdi d
Ding bdng sdng Hong.


52

Nhiing yeu Id quyet dmh dnh trpng miic sinh thap
Bdng 6. Tinh s6 con mong muoi]1 tircacchlsoird'c iu^ng duvc
Dong bang song H6ng

Dong Nam B^

Tysi

CdccMso.
Sd thich c6 con Irai/con gdi

fj

Ting tuoi ph\i ntt khi sinh con

1,020

0,990

1.03

F,

1.000

0,970

1,03

Thih tning hdn nhSn

Fci

1,020

0,840

1,21

Miic dp do th] h6a

Fc2

1,002

0,987

1,02

Fc
TFR
IP

2,30

1,56

1.47

2,20
2,25

1,96
2,00

1,13
1,13

Ylu t6 khie
Tdng ly sual sinh Ihuc le
So con mong muon:
KeuF,xF„ = ] vAFc=\
NluF,xf"„= ] v l F „ = 0,98

=1.00

Ngudn S6liiuDTDSGKnam20l4
Mdl khdc, SO con mong mudn cimg cd thi dugc udc lugng tir cdng thiic (2) cung
vdi cac chi so trong md hinh cila Bonggarts (2001) va cdc gid thiit hgp Iy cho nhiing chi
sd cdn thieu. Cy the, trong myc 2 di dua ra gii thiet tdc dgng tong hgp giiia sinh con
ngoii y mudn (Fu), vd sinh (Fi) vd tii vong tre em (F,) din miic sinh Id khdng ddng ke.
Neu tac dgng ciia cdc yeu Id khdc ciing rdl nhd {Fa = 1) thi sd con mong mudn trung binh
(IP) d Ding bdng sdng Hdng la 2,2 vd d Ddng Nam Bg chi la 1,96. Tuong ty, niu F„ =
0,98 thi sd con mong mudn trung binh Id 2,25 d Ddng bing sdng Hdng va 2,0 con d
Ddng Nam Bg.
4. Ket lu^n v i bin lu^n
Tir cac kit qud phdn tich tren cd thi rUt ra mgt so kit l u ^ chinh sau. Thii nhat, tinh
trang hdn nhan chinh Id yeu to lac dgng chii yiu dan din tdng ty suit sinh Ihdp d vdng
Ddng Nam Bg. tgo khodng each dang ke so vdi vimg Ddng bdng sdng Hdng. Do sinh di
ngodi hdn nhin cdn kha hiim d Vift Nam, ty If phy nii chua kit hdn d Ddng Nam By
tdng cao dd tryc tiep Idm gidm manh miic sinh ciia vimg. Hifn tugng phy nii chua kit hdn
gia tdng ciing lien quan nhieu den qud trinh dd thi hda vd tdc dgng tdng hgp ca hai yiu ti
nay lgi cang ldn. Qua trinh do thj hda cd Ig khdng chi tgo co hgi ma cdn li dp lyc ldn cho
phy nii trong tiep can gido dye. dao lao nghi hay vifc Iam phi ndng nghifp vd difu d6
khien khdng it phu nii lya chgn tri hoan kit hdn. Mdt he qud khac ciia qua trinh ddtiiihda
va hifn dgi hda Id vifc phy nO tri hoin sinh con, hay tdng dg tudi khi sinh con, cung gdp
phan idm giim miic sinh d vung Ddng Nam Bg. Tuy nhien tac dgng cua tdng tuoi sinh

con vin nhd hon khd nhiiu so vdi tdng ty If dgc than. Nfu co ciu hdn nhdn vd dd thi hda
d Ddng Nam Bg cung nhu Irong toan qudc tiii miic sinh d vimg nay sg khoing 1,9, tiie Ii
khd gan vdi miic sinh thay thi. Trong khi dd, tdc dgng cua tmh Irang hdn nhan vi do thj
hda den gidm sinh d Ddng bdng sdng Hdng van khi tiiap, chi mong duong vdi miic df
chung ciia loan qudc.
Thii hai, dung nhu gid thuyet ban diu, sd thich cd con trai dd gdp phan vdo tinh
trang miic sinh ndm 2014 6 viing Ddng bdng sdng Hong khdng tiiap nhu d vung Dong


Nguyen Due Vinh 53

S
l l t atac
c ?dgng 'nhieu
; - ^den
f tong
' ° " ty
° suat
""" "sinh.
" '"'™
Khong

^"' " ° 8 * ' *
Thu ba, mac di, muc sinh ft vimg Dong Nam B j da giam Ichi sau duoi mic sinh
Ihay the quy mo gia did> 2 con co le dang 14 mong mu6„ eua da s6 phu n t eiing riiu cic
e j V(, ehong ft vimg nay. Trong khi do, s6 eon mong m„6n tnmg binh ft D6ng biing song
H6„g van khotog tren 2,2 con, eao hon mSt chdt so voi mie sinh thay t h i Dilu dang Im,
y 14 vao truftc nSm 2001. so con mong mu5n ft vung Dong Nam Bo v6n eao hon ft Ding
bang song Hong, nhmig da gidm nhanh hon trong khoang 2 thip kj qua v4 da gop phin

vio gidm mgnh miic sinh 6 vimg ndy.
Nhin Chung, vifc tdng ty suit sinh d vimg Ddng Nam Bg giim khi sdu dudi mirc
tiiay tiie Id do trong qud trinh bien dii xa hgi di xuit hien cdc yiu td tryc tiip hay gian
tifp ngdn can phy nir sinh dt 2 con, trong khi dnh hudng ciia cic yiu td khuyin khieh
sinh con vdn phdt huy mgnh trong xa hdi truyen thong, nhu sinh Ihay tiie con bj chit, sd
thich con trai, sinh con ngoai y mudn.. . da suy giam hoac gin nhu bien mit. Cung vdi
qui trinh phat trien xa hgi tir truyin thing sang hifn dai, chi phi vi mat mdt co hdi phil
trien sy nghiep do sinh de vd nudi day con cdi ngay gia tdng ma cdc chinh sdch ho U-g vd
an sinh xd hgi khd cd the bii dip hit dugc, Kinh nghifm thi gidi (Chen, 2012;
Dharmalingam, 2014; Lee, 2009; Morgan, 2003, 2009; Morgan va Taylor, 2006) cimg
nhu tii vimg Ddng Nara Bg la bdng chimg cho thdy, vifc giam ting ly suit sinh xudng
dudi miic thay the la hifn tugng kha phd biin khi xd hgi phat Iriin va hifn dgi hda den
mirc dg nhat dinh, ngay ca khi hau het cac gia dinh diu mong muon cd 2 con. Diiu ndy
khdng chi lien quan den so con mong mudn ciia cdc gia dinh md cdn phy thugc vao
nhihig dieu kifn kinh te, xa hdi va chinh sdch Hen quan. Nfu cdc yiu ti khdng khuyin
khieh sinh con trd nen phd bien, de nhan biit vd in sau vao nhan thiic ngudi dan thi sd
con mong muon cung giam manh vd khi dd, myc tieu duy tri miic sinh thay thi se khd
khdn hem nhiiu.
Bdi vgy, nhim duy tri mile sinh thay thi, trinh rairc sinh gidm qua sau, anh hudng
tieu cyc den myc tifu phdt trien ben viing ddt nude, Vift Nam can sdm xem xet ndi Idng
vi da d^mg hda chinh sich hgn chi smh df hifn hanh sao cho phU hgp vdi ddc diim kinh
ti, xd hgi vd biin dgng nhin khau hgc timg vimg mien. Ddng thdi, myc lieu khuyin sinh
cung nen dugc ket hgp mgt each chu dgng vd hgp Iy vdi cdc chinh sdch an sinh xa hgi
khac. Cic chuong trinh giao due, truyen thdng nen tap trung hon vdo dinh hudng duy tri
chuin myc quy md gia dinh 2 con. Nhdm kip Ihdi cung cip du ihdng tin vi co sd khoa
hgc cho xay dyng chinh sdch, can tiep tuc cd them cac nghifin ciiu ve tinh trang miic sinh
Ihip ciing nhu bien dgng miic sinh ndi chung, Cac cugc dieu tra nhdn khau hgc quoc gia
nen thu Ihdp thera mgl s i thdng tin cin Ihiit, nhu so con mong mudn hay tmh trgng vd
sinh, di cd thf phan lich day dii hon ve giam sinh d Vift Nam.

54

.MiOngyiu id guyel dmh imh irgng ir.

T&ilitu tham kJiao
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