Ảnh hưởng của hiện tượng nước biển dâng do biến đổi khí hậu đối với đê biển đồng bằng sông cửu long
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:
605845
1
Trang 2
- HCM
1:
............................................................... .
.................................................................. .
Tr
HCM ngày 15 tháng 01
Thành ph n H i
ng
ng
i h c Bách Khoa, HQG Tp.
2014.
nh giá lu n v n th c s g m:
(Ghi
c aH i
1.
-
2
-
3
-
4. TS.
-
5
-
Xác nh n c a Ch t ch H i
chuyên ngành sau khi lu n v n
ng
ng ch m b o v lu n v n th c s )
h giá LV và
c s a ch a (n u có).
lý
Trang 3
TP.HCM
-
-
..................................................... MSHV:
12020444 ...............
-9-1976 ...................................................
..........
...................................
605845..............
I.
II.
-
Nam.
-
-
III.
24/6/2013
IV.
:
22/11/2013
V.
Tp. HCM, ngày 22 tháng 11
;
Trang 4
Tôi chân
ch
bè
Trang 5
75cm
khác nhau
các
0,05 lít/s/m; 3,82 lít/s/m; và 39,93
Trang 6
ABSTRACT
The focus of this thesis has been made on investigation of the sea level rise
impact with three scenarios of 30cm, 75cm and 100cm and on 6 sea dike branches
(total length of 408km) in the Mekong Delta. This study focuses on the impact of sea
level rise on dike crest level and required weight of the armour layer unit protecting
the dike slope. Result shows that the absolute changes of dike crest level are
differed between dike breaches, however statistiscal result can give, on average, a
rule to used in planning or to schedule the sea dike upgrade. From this rule, when
the sea level increases 30cm; 75cm and 100cm, on average, the sea dike crest is
required to increase about 0,5m; 1,3m; 1,8m respectively, to ensure preventing
wave overtopping for the same design conditions. It is estimated that wave
overtopping discharge on the exisiting dike crest system will be in average 0,05
litre/s/m; 3,82 litre/s/m and 39,93 litre/s/m corresponding to three sea level rise
scenarios. The required weight of the armour layer unit needs to be increased by
about 111%; 339% and 468% for the three sea level rise scenarios, in comparison
with non sea level rise.
Trang 7
Trang 8
M CL C
................................................................................... 3
............................................................................................................................. 4
........................................................................................ 7
............................................................................................................................. 11
.......................................................................................................................... 11
......................................................................................................... 12
..................................................................................... 12
........................................................ 13
.......................................... 14
1.1
...................................................... 14
1.2
....................................................... 16
1.3
.................................................................... 18
........................ 23
2.1
2.1.1.
..................................................................... 23
.......................................................... 25
2.1.1.1
..................................................................................................... 25
2.1.1.2
......................................................................................... 25
2.1.2.
................................................................................ 27
....................................................... 27
2.1.2.1
..................................................................................................... 27
2.1.2.2
......................................................................................... 28
2.1.3.
................................................................................. 29
2.1.3.1
..................................................................................................... 29
2.1.3.2
......................................................................................... 29
2.1.4.
.................................................................................... 31
2.1.4.1
..................................................................................................... 31
2.1.4.2
........................................................................................ 31
2.1.5.
.......................................... 33
2.1.5.1
..................................................................................................... 33
2.1.5.2
......................................................................................... 33
2.1.6.
2.1.6.1
..................................... 34
..................................................................................................... 34
Trang 9
2.1.6.2
........................................................................................ 34
2.2
............................................................ 36
................................................................................................................ 39
3.1
......................................................................... 39
3.1.1
-2002 ...................................................................... 39
3.1.2
................................................................. 40
3.1.3
........................................................................ 40
3.1.3.1.
tp
nd) .. 41
3.1.3.2.
a .................................................................................... 41
3.1.3.3.
sl ................................................................................ 41
3.1.4
.......................................... 43
3.2
.............................................................................................. 45
3.3
mơ hình SWAN-1D. ...................................... 46
3.3.1.
...................................................................... 46
3.3.1.1
......................................................................................... 48
3.3.1.2
................................................................................ 48
3.3.2.
-1D ........................................................................ 50
3.3.2.1
-1D ....................................................................... 50
3.3.2.1.a
................................................................................... 50
3.3.2.1.b
................................................. 51
3.3.2.1.c
...................................................................................... 52
3.3.2.1.d
Hsetup ........................................................................... 52
3.3.2.2
3.4
- 1D .................................................... 55
........................................................... 58
....................................................................................... 60
4.1
Ztk,p ................................................................................ 60
4.2
a ......................................................................................................... 64
4.3
- 1D ............................................................. 65
4.3.1
- 1D .................................. 65
4.3.1.1
.............................................. 65
4.3.1.2
...................................................................................................... 66
4.3.1.3
.................................................................................. 66
4.3.2
- 1D .............................................. 68
4.3.3
..................................................................................... 68
Trang 10
4.4
Rsl......................................................................................... 83
4.5
........................................................ 86
........................................................................... 88
5.1
5.2
........................................ 88
-
. 89
5.2.1
- 1D .............................................. 89
5.2.2
..................................................................................... 90
5.3
ng ............. 90
5.3.1
Rsl .......................................................................... 90
5.3.2
......................................... 90
5.4
................................................................... 106
5.5
.................................................. 108
5.5.1
................................................................................. 109
5.5.2
............................................... 110
.............................................................................................................. 115
6.1
......................................................................................... 115
6.2
................................................................................................ 116
.................................................................... 119
7.1
.................................................................................................................... 119
7.2
.................................................................................................................. 120
................................................................................................. 122
.......................................................................................................................... 124
Trang 11
)
-
-
.
-
-TTg, ngày 25/9/2012
Trang 12
.
-
,
chung.
Trang 13
là:
-
-
.
X
tk,p
sóng leo Rsl,
s
setup
Tính tốn
.
-
.
do
.
và
Trang 14
1.1
o
Trang 15
2007)
Theo các
-
2007 Hình 1.2).
Hình 1.2
Trang 16
1.2
o
Trang 17
1,5o
0,9o
o
0,5o
0,6o
o
Nhi
(oC)
Vùng khí h u
Tháng I
Tháng VII
1,4
0,5
0,5
cB
1,5
0,3
0,6
ng b ng B c B
1,4
0,5
0,6
B c Trung B
1,3
0,5
0,5
Nam Trung B
0,6
0,5
0,3
Tây Nguyên
0,9
0,4
0,6
Nam B
0,8
0,4
0,6
Tây B c B
S
Trang 18
en
.
Hình 1.5
1.3
- 2010
Trang 19
1.2-1.4 và Hình 1.6).
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
7-8
10-12
14-17
19-22
23-29
28-36
33-43
38-50
42-57
8-9
11-13
15-17
19-23
24-30
29-37
41-47
46-55
52-63
7-8
11-12
16-18
22-24
28-31
34-39
41-47
46-55
52-63
7-8
12-13
17-18
22-25
29-33
35-41
41-49
47-57
52-65
7-8
11-13
16-19
22-26
29-34
35-42
42-51
47-59
51-56
8-9
11-13
17-19
22-26
28-34
34-42
40-50
46-59
51-66
9-10
13-15
18-21
24-28
30-37
36-45
43-54
48-63
54-72
Móng Cái
-
-
Kiên Giang
Trang 20
21, trung bình trên
64
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
7-8
11-12
15-17
20-24
25-31
31-38
36-47
42-55
49-64
8-9
11-13
15-18
20-24
25-32
31-39
37-48
43-56
49-65
8-9
12-13
18-19
24-26
31-35
38-44
45-53
53-63
61-74
8-9
12-13
17-20
24-27
31-36
38-45
46-55
54-66
62-77
8-9
12-14
17-20
24-27
31-36
38-45
46-55
54-66
62-77
8-9
12-14
17-20
23-27
30-35
37-44
44-54
51-64
59-75
9-10
13-15
19-22
25-30
32-39
39-49
47-59
55-70
62-82
Móng Cái
Lãnh
-
Kiên Giang
Trang 21
1.4
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
7-8
11-13
16-18
22-26
29-35
38-46
47-58
56-71
66-85
8-9
12-14
16-19
22-27
30-36
38-47
47-59
56-72
66-86
8-9
13-14
19-20
26-28
36-39
46-51
58-64
70-79
82-94
8-9
13-14
19-21
27-29
26-40
47-53
58-67
70-82
83-97
8-9
13-14
19-21
27-30
37-42
48-55
59-70
72-85
84-102
8-9
13-14
19-21
26-30
35-41
45-53
56-68
68-83
79-99
9-10
14-15
20-23
28-32
38-44
48-57
60-72
72-88
85-105
Móng Cái
-
-
Kiên Giang
Trang 22
Hình 1.6.
Trang 23
LONG
2.1
Hình 2.1
-
Trang 24
Theo Q
có
-TTg ngày 27/5/2009, h
c tiêu
.
-
-
-
:
-
-TTg ngày 25/9/2012,
tri
tồn vùng
n dâng 3
10
-2020, 2020-
Trang 25
T
Hình 2.1
2.1.1.
2.1.1.1
t
,
2).
2.1.1.2
II
: 51.445m
tp
2010.
-2002
5% là +2,10 m.
