Nghiên cứu tính dễ tổn thƣơng do lũ lụt hạ lƣu sông thạch hãn, tỉnh quảng trị







Chuyên ngành;  60 44 90

 2011


Abstract: 
th- 
nh m
y trên l   

 -
 
u l
n
u l

Keywords: ; ; ; 

Content
, nói chung và trên , 

L
dân    - 

 

,
 

  
gây ra - 
thì là 
 
Nghiên cứu tính dễ bị tổn thƣơng do lũ lụt hạ lƣu sông
Thạch Hãn, tỉnh Quảng Trị
c 
m:

quan

, 


Tài 
Chƣơng 1 – TỔNG QUAN
1.1 Các khái niệm về tính dễ bị tổn thƣơng
1.1.1 Khái niệm chung về tính dễ tổn thương


       
t [9]
 
, 
c [ 10, 13 - 16 ]  các khái nitính dễ bị tổn thương tự nhiên, tính dễ tổn
thương xã hội và những tổn thương kinh tế.
1.1.2 Tổn thương do lũ lụt

 
                
 
 l
-ihe
“ Tính dễ bị tổn thương là mức độ gây hại có thể được xác định trong những những điều
kiện nhất định thông qua tính nhạy, sự tổn thất và khả năng phục hồi” [31].

thì Janet Edwards (2007) [15] 
“là bản đồ cho biết vị trí các vùng nơi mà
con người, môi trường thiên nhiên, của cải gặp rủi ro do các thảm hoạ có thể dẫn đến
những hậu quả nghiêm trọng như thiệt hại về người, gây ô nhiễm môi trường”.

thôn

1.2 Sự cần thiết của đánh giá tổn thƣơng lũ
 ,
  
nh

n
y 
 
      u        
 
 thông :;
Đánh giá tổn thương lũ
Bản đồ hóa tổn thương lũ
Quyết định tối ưu cho các phương án giảm nhẹ lũ
Đánh giá tài chính ngay sau lũ

1.3 Tổng quan về các nghiên cứu trong và ngoài nƣớc

: - ng, 
Tuy nhiên 
 :
[27] v Đánh giá rủi ro do lũ cho lưu vực sông
Thạch Hãn tỉnh Quảng Trị, 


, 
,  cùng 
au.
1.4 Đặc điểm địa lý tự nhiên, kinh tế - xã hội
1.4.1 Đặc điểm địa lý tự nhiên
a. Vị trí địa lý

0
6
0
54 
0
36

0
18   
 - Lào và phía
B, 
2
 
 ,thành p

t(hình 1) [7].

Hình 1. Khu vc nghiên cu
1.4.2 Đặc điểm kinh tế - xã hội
a, Dân số và dân tộc
Theo Niên giám thông kê tỉnh Quảng Trị năm 2010

         9
2
,     

2
, 30
2

. 

.
b, Văn hóa và giáo dục

trung bình, vùng sâ 



1.5 Tình hình về lũ lụt và những tổn thƣơng do lũ gây ra trong những năm gần đây
trên lƣu vực sông Thạch Hãn





 u mãn xy ra vào tháng V, VI Tính ch, tp trung
nhanh, xy ra trong thi gian ngn, lên xung xy ra trong 2
ngày nên ít  yu n sn xut nông nghip
và nuôi trng thy sn.
 m xy ra vào tháng 6 u tháng IX t
ng lu mãn, ti k
xng bu vào thi k triu bu cao. Do vy m
ng ti dân sinh mà ch yu là ng ti nông nghip
và thy sn.

Nguồn Chi cục PCLB & TKCN tỉnh Quảng Trị
Hình 2: Nhng thit hi v kinh t t gây ra trong nhng g

Nguồn Chi cục PCLB & TKCN tỉnh Quảng Trị
Hình 3. Nhng thit hi v t gây ra trong nh
  xy ra t trung tun tháng IX n cui tháng XI u tháng XII hàng
i k i k này có th xn dc
 hay ngp lt  h n vi bão gây thit hi ln cho
kinh t xã hi, gây ch h tng. L kéo dài 5  7
ng ln. Do ng tn tht gây ra cho tnh Qung
Tr là  [6,7].

- xã
8



  



Chƣơng 2 - CƠ SỞ KHOA HỌC ĐÁNH GIÁ TÍNH DỄ BỊ TỔN THƢƠNG DO LŨ
2.1 Phƣơng pháp
, [28] 


 tính khác;
Tổn thương lũ = Sự lộ diện + Tính nhạy – Khả năng phục hồi (2)
sự lộ diện 
 

 

Trong          giá       i
và       
   
Tổn thương = Sự lộ diện – Khả năng chống chịu (3)


.   

  

(1)

Hình 4. nh tính t
2.2 Xây dựng bản đồ nguy cơ lũ

  và 





   và 

 


 


1%.
2.2.1 Giới thiệu về mô hình MIKE FLOOD


hình MIKE FLOOD        

 [1,5]: a) k
                 


 cho dòng


 -


mô hình [1,4].
2.2.2 Xây dựng mạng lưới thủy lực cho vùng nghiên cứu


 Ngoài ra,



     

2.2.2.1 Mạng lưới thủy văn và sơ đồ mạng thủy lực 1 chiều (1D)





























 ,
















 , 





 ây,  


















 1 3 










, 




.

Hình 5.  tính toán thy l






2.2.3 Mạng thủy lực kết nối 1 chiều và 2 chiều
a) Thiết lập miền tính hai chiều (2D) trong MIKE 21


b
vào  (hình 6).

Hình 6. Gii hn vùng tính toán 2 chiu
10 



, các
hình 7


Hình 7. i ti khu vc nghiên cu
2.4 Xây dựng bản đồ nguy cơ với các tần suất 1%





t.

Hình 8. B thi gian ngp vi tn sut 1%

Hình 9. B i tn sut 1%


(hình 9
ngu
kéo dài, do 
ng


 và .
Chng 3 - GIÁ TÍNH D TN THTRÊN H LU
LU VC SÔNG THCH HÃN TNH QUNG TR
3.1 Điều tra khả năng chống chịu của cộng đồng
  

[28]. (hay
vùng nghiên ) 
 
ng 





 

3.2 Thành lập bản đồ tính dễ bị tổn thƣơng do lũ gây ra vùng hạ lƣu lƣu vực sông
Bến Hải, Thạch Hãn tỉnh Quảng Trị
,  xâ trên các : 
,  và 
T
nhau,  i:  
 và (hình10).

Hình 10. B s dt ti vùng nghiên cu
 


                  
 


 



Hình 11. B tdo  c sông Thch Hãn


n các



  t 1%, 


 


KẾT LUẬN VÀ KIẾN NGHỊ
1. N
H
 -

- .
2.  
  


3. 
Athành công 

các xã: Cam An, Gio Mai.
4. K32 
 
a 
 Tuy


. 



5.  





 


6.  
 
a.  
              

b. 
.
c.      

d. 
vùng.
e.  : xây
                

f.               
- 


g. 

References

1. 


1S, tr. 1-8.
2.  2010), Báo

3. ng, Ngô Chí
 

 2009, tr 35-
4.  


5. 


6.           
 
2B PT  2006, tr. 139-
7. u
 
  2009, tr 535 -
8. - 
m 2020,.

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