i
MC LC
Danh mt ng vit tt
Danh mc bng
Danh m
Danh mc ph lc
PHN M U ....................................................................................................................... 1
1: TM QUAN TRNG CA QUN TR R
I ....................................................................................... 2
1.1 Tng quan v rn tr ri ro .......................................................................... 2
m ri ro .................................................................................................... 2
t ri ro ...................................................................................................... 3
i rng gp i Vit Nam ........................... 3
1.1.3.1 Rng ............................................................................................... 4
m ca rng ................................................................... 4
n rng ....................................................... 5
ng rng ......................................................................... 6
1.1.3.2 Ri ro thanh khon ......................................................................................... 7
n ri ro thanh khon ................................................. 7
ng ri ro thanh khon ................................................................... 8
1.1.3.3 Rt................................................................................................. 8
1.1.3.4 Ri ro ngoi hi ri ro t ...................................................... 9
n ri ro ngoi hi ..................................................... 9
ng ri ro ngoi hi ..................................................................... 10
1.1.3.5 R ................................................................................................ 10
1.1.3.6 Ri ro chic.......................................................................................... 10
1.1.3.7 R ............................................................................................... 10
1.1.3.8 R ................................................................................................. 11
1.1.3.9 Rp .......................................................................................... 11
ii
1.1.4 Qun tr ri ro. .................................................................................................... 11
1.1.5 La qun tr ri ro .................................................................................... 12
1.2 S cn thit ca qun tr ri ....................................... 14
1.3 Hic Basel v qun tr r ............................................................... 15
1.3.1 Basel I ................................................................................................................ 15
1.3.2. Basel II .............................................................................................................. 17
c kinh nghim t qun tr ri ro ca mt s c .............................................. 19
c kinh nghim t c khng ho .................. 19
n ca Vit Nam sau cuc khng ho ............................... 20
KT LU ....................................................................................................... 22
C TRNG CA HO NG QUN TR RI RO
I VIT NAM ......................... 23
2.1 Thc trng hong kinh doanh ci Vit Nam hin nay ... 23
ng ............................................................................................ 23
c phi mt ...................................................................................... 28
....................................................................................... 28
2.1.2.2 Cnh tranh gi
................................................................................................... 29
2.1.2.3 Cnh tranh vi th ng ch ......................................................... 30
ng ci vi hong kinh doanh c
i Vit Nam hin nay ........................................................................ 30
2.2.1 Ri ro tng .................................................................................................... 30
ng ...................................................................... 31
............................................................................. 31
............................................................................. 32
............................................................................. 32
........................................................................... 34
2.2.1.2 T l n xu v .............................................................................. 35
iii
2.2.1.3 Mt s n ch rng ....... 37
2.2.2 Rt ...................................................................................................... 38
..................................................................................... 38
..................................................................................... 39
2.2.2.3 Bi .................................................................................... 41
2.2.2.4 Din bi ................................................................... 44
2.2.2.5 Bia rt hin nay ................................................ 44
2.2.3 Ri ro ngoi hi .................................................................................................. 45
2.2.3.1 Din bi ..................................................................................... 45
2.2.3.2 Din bi ..................................................................................... 47
............................................................................... 49
2.2.3.4 Bia ri ro ngoi hi hing tt
Nam ............................................................................................................ 50
2.2.4 Ri ro thanh khon .............................................................................................. 52
2.3 Thc trng ng dng Basel trong ho thi
Vit Nam ................................................................................................................ 53
KT LU ....................................................................................................... 60
MT S XUT NHM NG QUN TR RI
I VIT NAM .................. 61
3.1 c ....................................................... 61
3.1.1 Tip tn h tht, khuyn xut kinh doanh cho doanh
nghip, bo v la NHTM ....................................................... 61
y mnh vic sp xp lng c h thng NHng hong M&A
o tim lc m sc c ng ....................... 63
cn tip tng kinh t thun l
NHTM ............................................................................................................... 63
3.2 c Vit Nam .................................................................... 64
nh chung ca U
qun tr r ....................................................... 64
iv
c m ......................................................... 65
n th ng sn ph ............................................................... 66
i ngoi t trong d tr ............................................................ 70
3.3 i Vit Nam ................................................................ 70
3.3.1 Gii quyt v v ................................................................... 70
ng ri ro .................................................. 72
3.3.3 Cu kin kinh t ............................................... 72
3.3.4 Cp ngun vn ci m r
thc hi nghip v trong ho .............................................. 72
3.3.5 Thc hin minh bch, ... 73
................................ 73
m tra, kii b
ri ro .................................................................................................................. 74
n tr ri ro cho tng loi ri ro .......................................................... 74
3.3.8.1 Hn ch rng ................................................................................. 74
3.3.8.2 Hn ch ri ro ngoi hi ............................................................................... 76
3.3.8.3 Hn ch ri ro thanh khon ........................................................................... 77
3.3.8.4 Hn ch rt ................................................................................... 78
KT LU ....................................................................................................... 79
PHN KT LUN ................................................................................................................. 80
Ph lc
u kham tho
1
PHN M U
Trong nhgn ng sn xung
ca h thi Vii mi hi nhp vi
kinh t th i th gin nn kinh t quTuy
n lin vi nhc mi quan h kinh t khu vc t
mang li ro tim n, cung ho
minh ch
H thi Vit Nam ma nn kinh t -
mt trong nhc ht sc nhy cm, m ct quc ty
i mt v ri ro trong ho xi ro
thanh khon, ri ro ngoi hi, ri gian qua, s din bin phc tp ca nn
kinh t i ro dn bc
lc din bin ra nhng ri ro
kp thi x
h thng ng i Vi c c
ng, thc hin tt mu qu trong kinh doanh
2
1
TM QUAN TRNG CA QUN TR RI RO
I
Tng quan v rn tr
ri ro.
S cn thit ca qun tr ri ro
i.
Hic Basel v qun tr ri ro
c kinh nghim t qun tr
ri ro ca mt s c
1.1 Tng quan v rn tr ri ro
m ri ro
m truyn thngng thit hi, mm ho
yu t n nguy hic ch xy ra cho
c t cho thng trong mt th gim
n, hong ca
ng, c t
nhin viu ri ro,
3
nhn dng rn tr rn thc
v ri ro ci, tr
M cho r bt tr ng
i ro vc v mang
n cho con i nhng tn tht, m n cho
i, th. Nu ri ro, nhn dng ri ro,
ng ri ro, qun tr r c nhng bia,
ng ri ro thun ch nhng thit hi do r t
n th ng, bii mang li kt qu tt
t ri ro
Dt
R ng rt qu c xut hin tn tht, ch
kh ng ca nhi trong nn kinh t. Nhng ri ro
n s.
Rng ng rn s c bii trong
nn kinh tt qu c s mang
n s tn th i trong th hip vi sn ph
doanh nghi i v p vi
kh a doanh nghi
Dc
Ri ro thu tn tn thi sinh li
i ro thung r
nhng thit hi, ma hon, mt cp, tai nn lao
t kho p thit hi)
c hn ch.
R i to ra
thun li gn lin vi nhn tht, loi rng ly hot
p dn c
i rng gp i Vit Nam
4
nhau tr
1.1.3.
The World Bankcredit risk
-
a-
b-
c-
d-
e-
5
.
6
kinh doanh.
: do thi
7
8
-
-
Timothy W.Kock (1995)
Thomas P.Fitch (1997)
-
-
9
-
-
-
-
-
Hennie van Greunung- Sonja Brajo vic Bratanovic (1996)
Peter S,Rose (1999) ng
quan,
10
(i)
-
-
-
R
Tri t i bng(i) + Tri bng (i)
i t(i) n n ngoi t(i)]
+ [Doanh s Doanh s
11
y ra
ng tn tht xy ra do nhng trc tr
ng kinh doanh cch v t h
v thut nghip v phi hp gi phn ch
Rt hin t rm n trong hong c
n nhc q
t phc tc thc hinh
rt cht ch y ra. Bt k mt s bt cn hay
y mt nghip v, thu thp x p thi c
b phn ch th n nhng quynh cc
p tip theo. R
c s m r ng trong ho
i t
khng giao d l thu thu nhi
gi
chp nhi vi mi lo
1.1.4 Qun tr ri ro
Qun tr rnh m rt doanh nghip mong mun din
c m ri ro hin nay ca doanh nghiu. M d
c hn ch s xut hin ca ri ro hou
chnh m ri ro thc s theo mc rng mun.
p cn ri ro m
thng nhm nhn dng, kim thiu nhng tn tht, mng ng
bt li ca rng thn r
.
V i ro
mt v
-. Qun tr ri ro
gc: nhn dng rng ri ro, kia
ri ro.
Nhn dng ri rou kiuyt trong qun tr ri ro. Nhn dng r
thng kinh doanh c
12
bao gm: ving ho hot
ng cm thc tt c i ri ro, k c d ng ri
ro m xut hi p cho
tng loi ri ro.
i ro
nga ri ro mu qu
ng ri roi phi thu thp s liu, lp ma trng ri
quan trng ca ri vi ta
s dn sut xut hin ca r ca ri ro (m thit
hi do rnh.
Kia ri ro. Kia qun tr r
vic s d thu, ching
c gim thiu nhng tn tht, nhng
xi v
t a tn tht, chuyn giao r ng ri ro, qun tr
ri roc hii ro v xy
n phng tn tht v sn,
nguc hoc v n thit l
h khc phn
giao ri ro.
1.1.5 La qun tr ri ro
ng kinh doanh c
, hi
bim hn ch t ri ro mc ti thi
i vi b h thng nn kinh t i
ngoi.
i vi
Ri ro xc tin kinh doanh cn ngun
thu nhp, li nhui ly vn t
khon thiu ht do r
ci gi tin mu
b , h chuy
13
Nhng tn thng gt vng, gi
li nhun, gi c
. M
doanh b l c ho kh d
n vn.
Hn ch c rng hom b
ho
ng kinh t nhinh tranh gay g
t v t ch
n s tn ti cn nay.
.
i vi nn kinh t
.
, QTRR tu ki
ng t thng NHTM t
, cung ng vch v kinh doanh,
y nn kinh t qun.
i vi quan h i ngoi
14
, nn kinh t ca mi qun kinh
t khu v gi v tin tt nhanh
mn nn kinh t c
c t ng minh qua cuc khng hong tin t
cuc khng ho
(2008).
y
nn kinh t qu ca mt quc gia hi nhp
n kinh t th gii. Mt nn kinh t nh, mt
h tht s n kinh t khu v gii nh,
th ca qu th gii,
i.
1.2 S cn thit ca qun tr ri ro trong ni
Hn ch ri ro trong kinh doanh ni s n ca nn kinh t th
ng c r tr
i bi cuc sng ca doanh nghinh
i chp nh s xut hin ca nhiu loi r xy
vic chp nhn ri ro mu qu nh
c hin QTRR. Hiu qu hong kinh doanh ci quan h
vi m ri ro xy ra, nu ri ro thp t u qu c li.
ng ho ng kinh t th t ch
nhim v kt qu kinh doanh ci chp nhn nhng quy
nh, nh m bo s
h thng. Vng th n, s ci
i t khnh by nn
vic cng c ng th tn tn
mn vng.
Qun tr ri ro tu kin quan tr u qu hot
ng kinh doanh ca NHTMu qu kinh doanh c
y ln nhau. QTRR tu kim bo cho hong kinh doanh
t qu kinh doanh t u ki
cht phn ca qun tr kinh doanh
i vo.
Qun tr ri ro i nhp quc t. Hin nay, xu th
hi nhp quc t ng hay b cun
t. Vic hi nhp v t v ht sc quan tr
15
nhy cc c
v i tham gia hong trong mng
t ng thi, phi mt vi nhi ro cao
vi nhng din bin phc tp ca th cn thit ca vic qun tr ri ro
trong h thc s thi quc gia
li ph thuc qun tr ri ro c
1.3 Hic Basel v qun tr ri ro n
1.3.1 Basel I
t v s cp k 80, m
a p hp t Basel, Thy
quyy ban Basel v
qung cc t.
y ban Basel v t my
c v vn cng quc t phi
nm gi mt mc vn ti thi i nhng r xy ra. Mc vn ti
thit t l phnh trong tng vn cc v
c hic vn ti thing s ri ro c
Ma Basel I
Cng c s nh c thc t.
Thit lp mt h thng nhng nhm gim c
nh gic t.
u, Basel I ch ng trong hoc t thuc c
n mng c
nh c c t l vn ti thiu (Capital
Adequacy Ratio t ti thi p cho ri ro c x
d t buc nhm bo r c phc tn th
n li gi tin.
bao
16
Theo q
RWA
Basel I
ng s ri ro c
ri ro ca tng lon
Bng 1.1 : n theo trng s ri ro (Basel I)
Trng s ri ro n
0%
Tin m
tr n c
20%
n tr n cn
Chc
50% n vay th ch
100%
Tt c u ca doanh nghin n
t n vay th cp c phiu, bng s
Theo bii ca th c sn ri
ro th ng bao gm c ri ro th i v th
s bing l i ro th ng c th i v ca
mn nhi bin c kinh t sinh ri ro th t, t
i hi, chi ro th c:
chu ri ro ni b c nh
i b s dng nnh
nh trong Basel.
17
Mt nhii mc Basel I vu hn ch, c
th mt trong nhng hn ch cn ri ro ho tr
phc tp.
n v u hiu
m b chc bit vi nhng
tm vi hong quc t. B tc chia
t s i dung ch y
- u kin cho viu qu.
- n 5: cu
- u cn thn.
- ngup v
-
- c 22: quyn hn h
- i.
1.3.2. Basel II
Nhm khc phn ch ca Basel I, bn Hic quc t v vn mi nh
c u li t
hin tr ri ro cn phn tng th i
ro trong hong cng dn c th v c
trin khai. Basel II bao gm mt lon m thut
quc c ct:
Tr ct th nhtn phng v l trang tri cho
ng chu ri ro cm rng, ri ro th ng (r
sui ro t i ro hoi vi r
d si li nh vi ri ro th n
mi vi ri ro hong.
Tr ct th hain phn v nhng loi ri
i mm bo rng nh c
ca nhng bi. Vi tr cn mnh 4
c c
n phc m vn ca h
theo danh mc rc mt chin nhc vn
mc vn ni b
c c ph m b t l
18
vn ti thic hin mt s
hp nu h i kt qu c
n ngh c vu theo
nh.
p m bo mc vn c
i mc ti thi u si ngay lp tc
nu mc vc ti thiu.
Tr ct th ba n ph p theo
c th ng. Vi tr c u buc
nh u vn, m
ca vn nhn m nhy cm ci r
dng, ri ro th ng, ri ro ti vi tng
loi r
ng ca Basel II r
c t u chnh
theo r la chi ro.
Hit loc nhu chnh hoc
i quan h
vi gii. Ving nhn tr r
theo chun mc Basel II ti mng trong vin
a m gii.
Basel II vnh vi thi
t c c phc:
- RWA
rng
n * h s ri ro ( so vi Basel I, RWA c cp
n xp hng).
- RWA
Basel II
= vu ti thii vi tng ri ro (K) *12,5
H s ng theo Basel II phc t la ch
n t quyt rt ln trong
19
c r xp h phi ph
thuc ch yt qu xp h m c chc l
Moody, S&P, Fitch.
ng ca Basel II
Rng
- thu chc xp hm
c lp,
- thi b ng
khon ri ro ngnh,
- thi b t
lo ri ro.
Ri ro th ng
- t lp t thng nht
v c t chc hi h th
- i b ng ni b
ng dp vng c
c s d t ca NHNN).
Ri ro hong
- n: Mt ch ng cho mnh,
- u ch ng cho mnh.
- ng ni b
ni b.
c kinh nghim t qun tr ri ro ca mt s c
c kinh nghim t Lan sau cuc khng ho
Cuc khng hoc khng hoc
khng hon rc bu t
n kinh t g khu vc. Cuc khng ho
nhn khu v c chu ng mnh m nht t cuc
khng hou ng nng n nh
p tn t tm c quc tc
th hi sau:
20
t cuc khng ho1997
n t lot nh c
trong h thng.
Ting b ph c
i quy
dng, (3) thi ro, (5) quynh cho vay, (6) th tc
giy t hi khon vay.
ng th
nhiu qu kinh doanh, m
g tr n, kh c qun tr u
c tr m bo.
m s quyt
nh cho vay.
thm quyn quynh: > 10 trii
chm, >= 100 trii chm, >=3 t
phi Hng qun tr quynh.
n ca Vit Nam sau cuc khng ho
Cuc khng ho xy ra t gi
2008. Cuc khng hong nhin tc gia
th
21
Ho c tp,
o ra nh o t n qun: cho vay th chp ch
khon vay - c tip t
phm quy tm bng khi cho nh
hn mi chun vay.
d dng v t
n gim.
Kh i ro c p s phc tp ca nhng
chp v
default swap i ro c
i vng kinh doanh r
bc l nhiu y
.
t s nhnh sau:
ng hoi tr qua bt c mt quc gia hay mt
t ch ng ca quc gia, t ch ng
ho yn tr r rt xa tm
ki
Do ri ro khng hon r
thi vng, cng
n vi n cn tr ri ro
kp thi
ro.
.