Báo cáo "Đồng EUR trên thị trường tài chính quốc tế hiện nay: vị thế và các yếu tố ảnh hưởng. " docx

KINH TE - PHAP LUAT CHAU AU
DONG CUR
TR6N
THj
TRUdNG
TRI CHINH QUOC
T€ Hlf
N NRV:
vi TH€'VR
CRC
Vl'u
TO RNH
HUdNG
Ths.
Nguyen Thi Vu Ha - Nguyen Thanh Hue
Trir&ng
Dai hoc Kinh te - Dai hoc
Qude
gia
Hd
Noi
Su ra ddi cua ddng EUR dem da den hy
vgng ve mot cue tien te du manh de duy tri
sir
can bang cua he thdng tai ehinh - tien te the
gidi,
von le thugc qua muc vao ddng USD ke
tu sau hdi nghi Bretton Wood. Tuy nhien,
cuoc khiing hoang ng cdng chau Au hien nay
da khiln dilu nay bi nghi ngd. Vay tren thuc
tl,

EUR
CO
vi the nhu the nao tren cac thi
trudng tai chinh qude te, dac biet la sau cude
khung hoang kinh te toan ciu
nam
2007 -
2008 va vi
thi
cua ddng tien nay chiu
sir
chi
phii
cua nhung ylu td nao? Bai vilt sau day
nhim muc dich tra
Idi
hai cau hdi neu tren.
L
Vi the cua dong EUR tren cac thi
trudng tai chinh quoc te
•
Tren
thi
tru&ng
ngogi hoi
KI
tu khi chinh thue luu hanh
din
nay,
ding

EUR luon chilm mot ty trgng khoang
37-38%
tren thi trudng ngoai hdi va chi diing
vi tri thu hai sau ddla My. Cude khung
hoang tai chinh d My culi
nam
2007 da
khiln cho ty trgng cua EUR tren thi trudng
ngoai
hii
tang len dang kl (hon 40% tu culi
nam 2007
din
culi nam 2009). Gia tri cac
'
Thj
trudng
t^i
chinh
cju6c it
bao g6m:
Thj trudmg
ngoai
h6i,
thj
truemg
tien
t?
qu6c
tg,

thi
trufifng
tin
dyng
quoc te, thj
tnrdmg trii phi^u
qu6c
xk vi
thi
tnifmg churng khoin
qu6c te.
giao dich cd lien quan den EUR khi quy ve
USD tang len ttr 1.232 ty USD
nam
2007
din
hon 1.556 ty USD
nam
2010 (tuong
duomg vdi
mGc
tang la
26,3%)^.
Tuy nhien
khiing hoang ng cdng d chau Au da khien
cho ty trgng cua ddng tien cua khu vuc nay
bi sut giam xudng dudi 40% (tinh den thang
4 nam 2010
la 39%).
Trong hoat ddng phai sinh lien quan den

trao doi ngoai hdi, vi the cua EUR va USD
ludn van dgng ngugc chieu nhau mot
each
rd
net. Cu
thi
la kl tii khi chinh thuc luu hanh
tren thi trudng, vi the cua dong EUR tien gan
sat nhat vdi vi the cua ddng USD, nhung
cang ve sau thi vi the cua hai ddng tien cang
each xa nhau theo chieu hudng ddng EUR
ngay cang giam dan vi the cua minh. Cu the
la vao
nam
2001, ty trgng cua EUR chilm
hon 50% cac ddng tien trong giao dich ngoai
hoi phai sinh, nhung den
nam
2009, con sd
nay chi con khoang 40%.
Ngugc lai vdi hoat ddng phai sinh lien
quan den trao ddi ngoai hoi, hoat dgng phai
sinh lien quan den lai suat ghi nhan mot
sir
vugt len cua dong EUR. Ty le giao dich bang
ddng EUR la
39,1%,
trong khi ty le cac giao
^
BIS,

2010,
Foreign exchange and
derivatives
market
activity
in
April 2010.
46
NGHIEN
COU
CHAU AU • EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°07 (130).2011
dich bang USD d
miic
la 34,1% (thap hon
5%
so vdi EUR). Tuy nhien, gia tri cac giao
dich bang ddng USD cd xu hudng tang ke tu
nam
2000 trong khi gia tri cac giao dich bang
ddng EUR lai giam ddi chut vao
nam
2007.
Gia tri giao dich bang Yen Nhat da giam dan
sau khi tang len cao nhat vao dau 2007.
Khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau nam 2007-
2008 da khien cho vi the cua ddng EUR cai
thien dan so vdi day vao
nam
2007, tuy

nhien muc do tang ty trgng cua EUR trong
cac hoat ddng phai sinh lai suat cdn thap.
Ty trong cac
dong tien
(%)
Dola My
EUR
Yen Nhat
Bang Anh
2001
89.9
37.9
23.5
13.0
2004
88.0
37.4
20.8
18.5
2007
85.6
37.0
17.2
14.9
2010
84.9
39.1
19.0
12.9
Ngudn: BIS,

2010,
Foreign exchange
derivatives market activity in April 2010.
* S6
lieu
dugc \ky vio
thang
4
hing
nSm.
and
__
USD
EUR
— JPY
GBP
Ty trgng
c&c
dong tien
giai
do^n
2006
-
2009
70
60
50
30 —
20, ^;:^
O

-
Tai
Jiuy
Jan.
July
Jan.
July
Jaik.
Jvty
Ngudn: The international role of
the Euro. 2010.
USD
EUR
JPY
Ty
trgng
c^c
d6ng
tien trong
giao djch
ngo^i lioi
phai sinh
(%)
Cic
dong tien
khiic (die nirfrc piiit trign)
Ciic
dong tien
IcIiAc
(cic

nvtifc
DPT)
199»
2001
2003
20QS
2007
2009
Ngudn: The international role of the Euro,
2010.
70
60
50
40
30
20
Y"
10
1999
Ty
trpng
cac
dong tien.
trong
ho^t dpng
phai sinh
^~
USD
EUR

*.,„,.
""
JPY lai
suat
(%)
^~~
Cic dong tiln
Idiic
(cic
niriv pliit Irien)
Cic dong tiin
khii
(cic
aain
DPT)
I
'''
••>•••.
,^ .* •'
*
" '
2001
2003
2003
2007
2009
Ngudn:
The
international role of the Euro,
2010.

^D0*ig ^(Jldl
trin thi
trttdng.
tai
ehinh
Al
• Tren thi
trir&ng
tiin
t^
quoc te
Thi trudng tien te
quIc
tl giao djch
chii
ylu vdi 3 dong tien chinh la USD, EUR va
Yen Nhat, trong do USD chiem ty trgng
Idn
nhSt,
xoay quanh
miic
tren 50%
tir
nam 1999
den nam 2005.
Din
nam 2006, ty trgng USD
tang dan, len
miic
cao nhat (60%) vao giai

doan cuoi nam 2007, dau nam 2008. Ngugc lai
vdi xu hudng do, ty trgng cua dong EUR
tir
khi ra ddi den nam 2003 giii d
miic
30%
nhung sau do giam dan va
xuIng miic
thap
nhat (20%) vao khoang culi nam 2007. Gia tri
cac khoan tien
giii bSng
Yen Nhat In
djnh
d
miic
5% trong
suit
khoang thdi gian
tir 1999
-
2008 va c6
sir
giam
siit
sau cuoc khung hoang
toan cau.
Nguyen nhan
ciia sir
van dgng ngugc

chilu
trong ty le cac khoan tien
giii
dinh danh
bang USD va EUR la do trong giai doan culi
nam 2007,
dSu
nam 2008 EUR da giam gia so
vdi USD xuong con 1 EUR =
1,4349
USD
(20/12/2007) va 1 EUR =
1,4482
USD
(21/01/2008)^
lam giam cac khoan tien gui
bang EUR va tang cac khoan tiln gui bang
USD
dii
lai suat cac khoan tien giii bang EUR
hip din
hon so vdi cac khoan tien
giii bing
USD.
Tir
cuoi nam 2008 den dau nam 2009,
khiing hoang kinh te bat dau bung no d My da
lam USD giam vi the so vdi EUR. Cu the la
trong giai doan nay, tren thj trudng tiln te, ty
trong cua USD da giam

xuIng
dudi
miic
60%
trong khi ty trgng cua EUR da tang len
miic
khoang 23%. Tuy nhien, kl tir culi nam 2009,
khi FED dua ra nhiing chinh sach hieu qua
giiip
nIn
kinh tl My phuc
hIi
trd lai va dau
hieu ve mot cuoc khung hoang ng cong chau
Au ngay cang ro net da lam giam vi the cua
EUR. Ty trgng cua EUR tren thj trudng nay
vao cuoi nam 2009 chi con giii d
miic
22%^.

fcref-praph-usd.en.html
"
ECB (2008, 2009,
2010),
The international role of
the EURO,

48
NGHIEN
CQU

CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°07
(130).20n
So
iirgng
Gia tr| cac khoan tien gui
dirgrc
dinh danh bang cac dong tien
Thi phan
CUSD bflli<mi>
USD
EUR
JFY
o&er
7,000
6,000
5,000
4.000
3,000
2,000
1,000
O
i|||;![fU
ifllilli I
(peicepCTgea;
at
oonstant eKcliaxi£e zates)
— USD
EtXR.
—— JFY

^
**-
1999

2001
2003
J
£-_
^
2003
2007 2009
Ngudn:
The international role
of
the
EURO,
2010.
•
Tren
thi trudng tin dung quoc te
Ke tir khi EUR ra ddi den nay, ty trgng
cac dong tien tren thj trudng cho vay kha on
dinh (ty trgng
ciia
USD xoay quanh
mure
50%;
EUR xoay quanh
miic
20% va Yen Nhat chilm

dudi 10%) trir mot
sir
bien dgng dang ke vao
nam 2006. Nam 2006, ty trgng USD tang len
khoang
55%
trong khi ty trgng EUR va Yen
Nhat giam doi chiit. Dieu nay la do chi phi di
vay
bing
USD
thSp
hon so vdi chi phi di vay
bing
EUR da thiic day viec di vay
bing
USD.
Chenh lech lai suat
ciia
cac khoan vay bang
USD va EUR nam 2006 theo ky han
1
thang, 3
thang, 6 thang va mot nam luon nam trong
khoang
1.6%
din
2%.
Gia tri cac khoan cho vay qua bien gidi tinh theo cac dong tien
Sd

lirgrng
Thi
philn
CUSD
billions)
Cperce^ilasei^
34 coBstaaxt exchaOLSe
rates)
USD
EUR
JPY
otbjsr
8,000
7.000
6,000
S,000
4.000
3,000
2,000
1.000
0
111
I
[I
ill
— USD
EUR
JPY
8,000
7,000

6,000
3,000
4.000
3,000
2,000
1.000
0
SO
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
„
1
r
i
I
!
(
•-^
80
ssis^
60
30
m^
20

Ngudn:
The international role of the
Euro,
2010
fDeng
l^Qldl
triri
thi
tru'd^ng
tai ehinh
49
Chenh lech
lai
suat cac khoan vay
bing
USD va EUR nam 2006
1thang
3
thSng
^6 th^ng
gl.nam '
i 5.09737
,,
5.1988
•'15.27789 ,^^,
5.31296"
4
i
1
94319^^

'
3.08101
3.23614
""'
3.4382
',' '.'
2.26
1.1,2
.9K''^f2.22<'
2.069
Ngudn:
Cuoc khiing hoang kinh tl My culi nam
2008 -
diu
nam 2009 da lam suy giam niem
tin cua cac ngan hang vao dong USD va hg
chuyen sang cho vay bang dong EUR. Tuy
nhien, vao cuoi nam 2009 khi ng cong chau Au
c6 dau hieu lam vao khiing hoang
thi
thi
trudng tin dung
quIc
tl lap
tiic
phan
ling
theo
chieu hudng ngugc lai. Ty trgng cua EUR tren
thi trudng nay tinh vao thang 12/2009 da giam

1.6%
so vdi ciing ky nam trudc
do^.
• Tren thi trudng chiing khoan quoc te
Gia tri cua cac chung khoan
ng^
djnh danh
bing
EUR khong ngimg tang len kl tir khi no ra
ddi cho den nay (ngoai trir mot
sir
suy giam nam
2008 so vdi 2007 do anh hudng cua khung
hoang kinh tl toan cau). Ben canh do, ty trong
ciia EUR tren thi trudng nay cung tang, tir
khoang 20%
(miic gin bing
vdi Yen Nhat) vao
nam
1999
len hon 30% vao nam 2009 (trong khi
Yen Nhat chi chiem dudi 10%). Dilu nay cho
thay vi
thi
cua EUR da tang len so vdi khi mdi ra
ddi.
Cung dl dang nhan thay, theo thdi gian,
EUR da thay
thi
Yen Nhat dl trd thanh

ding
tien
CO vj
tri
thii
2, sau USD.
Dilm dang luu y la nam 2005, ty trong cua
USD giam xudng
miic
thap
nhit
trong khi ty
trong
ciia
EUR tang len
miic
cao
nhit
va hai ty
trgng nay
xIp
xi nhau. Dieu nay la do nam 2005,
lai suat cua cac trai
philu
ky han 5 nam va 2 nam
djnh danh
bing
EUR thap hon cac trai phieu
ciing ky han khac lan lugt la
11 %

va
15%^.
Nam 2008, khi khiing hoang kinh tl dien
ra d My va c6 nguy co lan rgng ra toan cau,
FED da lien tuc
cit
giam lai
suit
va den thang
12/2008,
lai
suit
cac chiing khoan ng dinh
danh
bing
USD ky han 2, 5 va 10 nam da giam
xuIng miic
lan lugt la 0.89%, 1.5% va 2.18%,
trong khi cac chiing ng djnh danh bang EUR
ciing ky han
lin
lugt la 2.342%, 3.069% va
3.698%*.
Lai
suit
cua cac churng khoan ng djnh
danh
bing
USD thap da thiic
diy

viec phat hanh
chiing khoan ng djnh danh
bing
EUR, tuy
nhien viec USD
mit
gia 2% so
vdi
EUR vao
culi nam
2008'
lai ngan chan
sir
tang trudng
nay. Do do, tinh theo ty gia hien hanh, den culi
nam 2008, ty trgng
ciia
USD la 44.7%, tang nhe
(1.4%) so vdi cung ky nam 2007 trong khi ty
trgng cua EUR vSn
giii"
nguyen d muc 32.2%'".
DIU
hieu vl cuoc khiing hoang ng cong
Hy Lap da khien cho culi nam 2009 ty trgng
cac chiing khoan ng djnh danh
bing
EUR giam
xuong
miic

31.4% (giam 0.8% so vdi cuoi nam
2008) va tang ty trgng cac churng khoan ng djnh
danh
bing
USD len 45.8% (tang 1.1% so vdi
cuoinam
2008)".
' ECB
(2008,
2009,2010),
sdd.
*
Thj truemg churng
khoin ng
1^
thj truemg
m^
t^i
do
ding ti^n
dugc dimg de djnh danh churng khoan
kh6ng phdi
14 ding
tiln cua
nude nguexi pMt hdnh
turc
\k thi
tnremg chi bao
gIm
cic giao dich qu6c ii.

^ ECB
(2008,2009,2010),
sdd.
'Nt.
'
Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation
The Future
of
Reserve
Currencies,
ECB.
'" ECB
(2008,2009,2010),
sdd.
"Nt.
p„
50
NGHIEN
COU
CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°07 (130).2011
Ty trgng cac dong tien trong tone ngr quoc te
So lirgrng
(nghin
ty USD) Thi phan
VSD
EUR
iiiiiill
1999'
ajoi'

'2003 2005
•—.
1999

.•-•,
••-^
2001
'•••«u_
!20O3 7001 200?
20QS
Ngudn: The international role of the EURO, 2010.
Diem dang luu y la nam 2005, ty trgng
cua USD giam xuong
mire
thap nhat trong khi ty
trgng cua EUR tang len
miic
cao nhat va hai ty
trong nay xap xi nhau. Dieu nay la do nam 2005,
lai suat
ciia
cac trai phieu ky han 5 nam va 2 nam
dinh danh
bing
EUR
thip
hon cac trai phieu
ciing ky han khac
lin
lugt la

11%
va
15%'^.
Nam 2008, khi khung hoang kinh tl dien
ra d My va co nguy co lan rgng ra toan cau,
FED da lien tuc cat giam lai
suit
va den thang
12/2008,
lai
suit
cac chimg khoan ng dinh
danh
bing
USD ky han 2, 5 va
10
nam da giam
xuIng
muc
lin
lugt la 0.89%, 1.5% va
2.18%,
trong khi cac chiing ng dinh danh bang EUR
cung ky han
lin
lugt la 2.342%, 3.069% va
3.698%'^.
Lai
suit
cua cac chiing khoan ng

dinh danh
bing
USD
thip
da thiic day viec phat
hanh churng khoan ng dinh danh bang EUR, tuy
nhien viec USD
mit
gia 2% so vdi EUR vao
culi nam
2008*'*
lai ngan chan
sir
tang trudng
'^
ECB
(2008,2009,
2010),
sdd.
"Nt.
"*
Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009), presentation
The
Future of Reserve Currencies, ECB.
nay. Do dd, tinh theo ty gia hien hanh, den cuoi
nam 2008, ty trgng cua USD la 44.7%, tang nhe
(1.4%) so vdi cung ky nam 2007 trong khi ty
trgng
ciia
EUR van

giir
nguyen d miirc
32.2%'^.
DIU
hieu ve cude khiing hoang ng cong
Hy Lap da khiln cho cuoi nam 2009 ty trgng
cac chung khoan ng dinh danh bang EUR giam
xuIng
muc 31.4% (giam 0.8% so vdi culi nam
2008) va tang ty trgng cac chiing khoan ng dinh
danh
bing
USD len 45.8% (tang 1.1% so vdi
culi nam
2008)'*.
• Tren thi tru&ng trdi phieu quoc te
Hoat dgng phat hanh trai phieu dinh
danh
bing
EUR tren thi trudng ng quoc te da
suy giam trong quy dau nam 2009 do cuoc
khung hoang da lam gia tang bien dgng tai
chinh toan
ciu.
Ting
trai philu, ky philu dinh
danh
bing
EUR da giam
xuIng

miirc khoang
2.8 nghin ty vao quy
diu
tien cua nam 2009,
sau do khoi phuc len
miic
hon 3 nghin ty vao
nua sau ciia nam. Tren thuc te, phan
Idn
cac
trai philu, ky phieu dinh danh
bing
EUR dugc
"
ECB
(2008,2009,
2010),
sdd.
'*Nt.
(Dang&atdl
trin thi
trt^^tg
tai ehinh
51
phat hanh bdi cac
thi chi
tai chinh. Culi nam
2009,
ty trgng ciia khu vuc nay xoay quanh
mire

69%.
Miic
dong gop nay
Idn
hon so vdi
mire
dong gop cua no trong trai phieu, ky
phieu dinh danh
bing
USD va Yen Nhat
(lin
lugt la 52% va 56%). Cung trong thdi gian
nay, ty trong cua khu vuc nha
nude
va cac to
chiic phi tai chinh trong phat hanh trai phieu,
ky phieu dinh danh
bing
EUR
lin
lugt la 6%
va 12%, thap hon
miic
dong gop cua no trong
phat hanh trai philu, ky philu dinh danh
bing
USD (lan lugt d
mire
12% va 16%). Tuy
nhien, do dung lugng thi trudng trai phieu, ky

phieu ciia USD
Idn
hom so vdi EUR (4.7 nghin
ty so vdi 3.1 nghin ty) nen mac
dii
cac the che
tai chinh phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu dinh
danh bang EUR d
miic
69% (trong khi ty trgng
cua no trong phat hanh trai phieu, ky phieu
dinh danh bang USD thap hon la 52%) nen cac
to chiic nay van phat hanh mot lugng
Idn hem
cac trai phieu, ky phieu dinh danh bang USD
trong hoat dong phat hanh
ciia
no.
Gia tri cac trai phieu quoc te
dugrc
djnh danh
bing
EUR xet theo khu vuc phat hanh (Ty
USD)
(USD billions)
C4c
to
chiic
quoc
tS

Cac
thi chg t&i
chinh
u«i
fir
Cac cong
ty
^ ^ Cdc
khu vvrc cong khac
•»•«•
oi
Khu vvrc
nhd nude
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
HIH
i i
i
.j;i;:itii;;::!!!{!ii««>!)Mimn!ni|,n
H
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000

1,500
1,000
500
0
1999
2001
20O3
2005 2007 2009
Sources:
BIS and ECB
calculations.
I) Includes public
corporations,
public banks and other public
financial institutions.
Gia
trj
cac trai phieu quoc te
dirgrc
djnh danh
bing
EUR xet theo khu
vyc
phat hanh
(%,
quy
IV nam 2009)
(percentages;
jchu
v^c

nhd
nudc
•_
so Cdc khu
v^rc
cong khdc
mtm od
Cdc c6ng ty
' ^
Cdc
the
cha tai chinh
__^^_,^
J,,
Cdc to chiic qu6c
tS
Dung
IiTQ^ng
thj
trirdrng
(nghin
tyS)
EUR
USD
JPY
Sources:
BIS
and
ECB
calculations.

I) Includes
public corporations, public banks and other public
financial institutions.
Nguon: The international role of the Euro,
2010.
• Trong
dif
trie ngogi hoi todn cau
Du-
trir ngoai
hIi
toan
ciu
khdng phai la
mot trong
si
cac thi trudng tai chinh toan cau
nhung viec xem xet tinh hinh sir dung dong
EUR vdi vai tro la dong tiln du
trir
cung rat
quan trgng. Dir trii ngoai hoi la phuomg tien de
cac
quIc
gia can thiep vao nen kinh te bang
each
mua ban cac dong tien va no cung co moi
quan he mat thilt vdi can can thanh toan quoc
tl.
Do dd, ty trgng cac

ding
tien trong
dir trCir
se phan anh ro net
vi thi
cua cac dong tien tren
cac thi trudng tai chinh toan
ciu.
52
NGHIEN
COU
CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°07 (130).20n
Ty trong cac ddng tien trong
dur trCr
ngoai hoi toan cau 1999 - 2008
S6 luyng (nghin
ty
USD)
Thj phan
•USD
IEH
IJPY lOtlieraiireDcies
Undisclosed
1999 2000
2001
2002 2003 2004 2005
im
Mi
2008

—USD —EUR
-JPY
I 1 1 1
1—n
1 1 1
r
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003 2004
2005 2006 200? 200
^70
60
50
40
30
20
Ngudn: The Future of Reserve Currencies, 2009.
So lieu tren cho thay USD la ddng tien
dugc
dir trir
nhieu nhat vdi ty trgng trong du
trir ngoai hoi toan
ciu
tir 60%
din
70%, dumg
thii
hai la dong EUR vdi ty le dao dgng tir 20 -

30%.
Ty trgng cua cac ddng tiln trong du trir
ngoai hoi toan cau kha on dinh, ngoai trir
sir
biln dong vao nam 2003 va 2005. Nam
2003,
ty trong
ciia
USD trong dir trii ngoai hoi toan
cau giam ciing vdi do la
sir
gia tang ty trgng
cua EUR. Nam 2005, ty trgng cua USD tang
trd lai trong khi ty trgng cua EUR giam xudng.
Sir
bien dgng dang chii y ve ty trgng cac dong
tiln trong
dir
trir ngoai hdi tir nam 2003
din
nam 2005 dugc giai thich bdi hieu
ling
gia tn.
Sir
thay doi trong ty gia USD/EUR da anh
hudng den gia tri cac tai san dinh danh
bing
USD va EUR. Gia tri ddng EUR lien tuc tang
kl tir
diu

nam
2003,
din
culi nam
2003,
EUR
da tang gia
gin
20% so vdi USD
[15].
Do do,
gia tri cac tai san dinh danh bang EUR va ty le
cua chiing trong du
trii"
toan
ciu
tang len.
Ngugc lai vdi xu hudng do, ke tir dau nam
2005,
ding
EUR lien tuc giam gia so vdi USD,
tinh den culi nam 2005, EUR da giam gia
14%
so vdi USD [15]. Dilu nay lam cho gia tri cac
tai san dinh danh bang EUR giam va gia tri cac
tai san dinh danh
bing
USD tang len, dan den
tang ty trgng ciia USD va giam ty trgng cua
EUR trong du trir ngoai hdi toan

ciu.
Mat khac, kl tir khi ra ddi cho
din
nay, ty
trgng cua EUR trong du trii ngoai
hIi
toan cau
da tang len trong khi ty trgng cua USD da
<I>&nq.
^(WQ.
trin thi
tnte^ng
tai ehinh.
53
giam doi chut. Dieu nay la do mot vai nguyen
nhan nhu sau:
* Thu nhdt, cac
nude
tren the gidi muon
phan tan rui ro va giam bdt
sir
phu thugc vao
chinh sach tiln te
ciia
My.
Nude
di dau trong
phong trao nay la Lien bang Nga.
Nude
nay da

tang ty trong
ciia
EUR trong ro tien te dugc sir
dung bdi Ngan hang Trung uong Nga tir
10%
-
20%
vao thang 5 nam 2005, len
lin
lugt la
35%
(8/2005), 40% (12/2005) va 45%
(2/2007)'^
* Thic hai, tinh long cua cac tai san dinh
danh
bing
EUR da tang len dang kl. Mot cuoc
khao sat dugc thuc hien bdi Ngan hang Thanh
toan Quoc tl
(BIS)
da dua ra
kit
qua la 74% cac
Ngan hang Trung uong cho rang cac trai phieu
dinh danh
bing
EUR cd tinh long cao, diing thir
hai sau cac trai philu dinh danh
bing
USD'^

DO
la ly do vi sao hg tin tudng sir dung cac tai san
dinh danh
bing
EUR trong du tru ngoai
hIi ciia
minh.
*
Thif
ba, cac giao dich sir dung
ding
EUR da tang trong
10
nam trd lai day doi hoi
cac Ngan hang Trung uong phai tich trii mot
gia tri
Idn
hon cac tai san dinh danh
bing
EUR
trong du
trii
ngoai
hIi
cua minh.
Nhin
chung, tren cac thi trudng tai chinh
toan
ciu,
ty le sir dung

ding
EUR vin thap
hon so vdi USD. Tuy nhien, ty le su dung
dong EUR trong nhung nam gan day da tang
so vdi khi dong EUR bat dau chinh thiic dugc
dua vao
sii
dung. Mat khac, dong EUR dugc
sir dung nhilu nhat d cac
nude
EU khong phai
la thanh vien Eurozone, sau do den khu vuc
BIC
My, trong khi do no dugc sir dung rat it d
cac
nude
chau A - noi
ding
USD dugc sir
dung
phi
bien.
Nhu da noi d tren, ty trgng cua USD trong
dir
trir ngoai
hIi
toan
ciu
khong ngimg suy
giam ke tir khi EUR ra ddi cho den nay. Cuoc

khiing hoang kinh tl My cang thiic
diy
xu
hudng nay. Ty trgng cua USD trong
dir
trii
ngoai
hIi
toan cau tinh den cuoi nam 2008 la
60.7%
(giam 1.3% so vdi binh quan nam
2007)''
trong khi ty trong cua EUR cuoi nam
2008 la 30% (tang
1.4%
so vdi binh quan nam
2007)^°.
Ngay ca khi cuoc khiing hoang kinh tl
cua My
din
qua di va chau Au lam vao khiing
hoang ng, cac Ngan hang Trung uong van
khong tang ty trgng cua USD trong du trir
ngoai
hIi
cua minh. Thay vao do, tinh den cuoi
nam 2009, cac nude tilp tuc giam ty trong cua
USD
xuIng miic
58.5%,

giii nguyen ty trong
cua EUR va tang ty trgng
ciia
cac
ding
tiln
(khong kl Yen Nhat) khac len 9.6%
(diu
nam
2008
miic
nay la
7.8%)^'.
Dilu nay la do trong
bii
canh kinh tl toan
ciu
co nhilu biln dong,
viec da dang hoa du trii ngoai
hIi
se giam bdt
riii
ro cho cac
nude.
"
Ellas Papaioannou and Richard Portes (2008), The
international
role of the euro: a status report,
European Commission.
" ECB

(2008,
2009,2010),
sdd.
"Nt.
^'
ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), sdd.
54
NGHIEN
COU
CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°07 (130).2011
smices
euro area euro
area
Uiiited United
J^ J^
(1997-
{2001-
States Stats
(M7-
QOOl-
2000) mi)
(mi-
(2001-
2000)
2006)
2000) 2006)
Ty trgng cua khu
virc
Eurozone

vi
My trong
tSng
GDP toan cau (theo PPP)
100%
8OP/0
eop/o
40%
20%
0%
!.MUIKt,it;ftirit.M»ilMII
«M,HII
I
iKIuVTIcdTkigELR
IM?
IKIBC
2.
Cac yeu to anh
hirdng
den vj the
cua dong EUR
• Quy mo kinh te, do md
ciia
cua khu
vuc su dung dong EUR (Eurozone)
Eurozone la mot khu vuc co quy mo kinh
te
Idn
(GDP theo ngang gia sire mua cua khu vuc
nay nam 2010 la

10.793,97
ty
USD^^),
dieu nay
giai thich tai sao ngay tir khi mdi ra ddi
ding
EUR da dugc cac nude tren the gidi
chip
nhan
va
sii
dung rgng rai. Tuy nhien, ddng EUR van
ehua the thay the vai trd chu dao cua ddng USD
mot phan la do trong suot thdi ky tir 2002
din
nay quy md kinh te
ciia
Eurozone con kem My.
Nam 2010, ty le dong gop ciia My,
Eurozone va Nhat Ban
lin
lugt la 20,22%,
14,62%
va
5,83%^^
Ba khu vuc nay da dong
gop gan 50% trong GDP toan cau. Dieu nay
giai thich mot thuc tl la ddng USD, ddng EUR
^^
"

Georges Pineau, (2010), The global use of the
dollar
and
Euro,
European Commission, tai lieu duac
lly
tu trang web

va dong Yen la nhung dong tien dugc sir dung
rgng rai trong cac quan he kinh te quoc te,
trong dd quy md kinh tl tuomg duong vdi
vi
the cac ddng tien.
Ngoai quy md kinh te thi
miic
do md
cira cua khu vuc chau Au, My va Nhat Ban
cung cho thay vi
thi
cua cac
ding
tiln nay tren
cac thi trudng tai chinh
qude
tl. Do md cira
cua Eurozone trong thdi ky tir 2001 den 2007
la
gin
38%, tang 5% so vdi thdi ky tir 1997
din

2000. Cung vdi xu hudng do, do md cua
ciia
My va Nhat Ban cung tang len dang ke
(lin
lugt la 25% va 23% trong thdi ky 2000 -
2007).
Tuy nhien, do md cua nen kinh te hai
nude
nay
vin thip
hon so vdi Eurozone.
Nam 2009, gia tri
xuit khiu
cua
Eurozone neu tinh ca ndi KhIi chilm 29,1%
tdng gia
tn xuat khau toan cau,
Idn
hom rat
nhieu so vdi My (8,6%.) va Nhat Ban (4,7%).
Neu khdng tinh gia tri thuong mai ndi KhIi, ty
trgng xuat khau cua khu vuc nay trong gia trj
xuit
khau toan cau
vin Idn
hon My gan 7% va
Nhat Ban 12%.
^ongl/Uai
trin thi
trtt^ng

tai ehinh
55
Toe dO
tang tru&ng kinh te cua My, Eurozone va Nhat
Ban tir
2007
- 2010
8"
„
1
°
S -1
9"
S
i -2
^—Eiiraarea
USA
-•—Japan
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3
Gia tri xuat khau cua cac
nvdc
trong gia tri xuat khau toan cau
(bao gom
thvo'ng
mai noi Khoi
Eurozone)
57%
• eurozone

• us
• japan
• rest of the
world
Ngudn: Annual report on the euro area, 2010.
Gia tri xuat khau cua cac
nude
trong gia tri xuat khau toan cau
(khong bao gom
thuotig
mai noi
Khoi Eurozone)
17%
67%
• eurozone
I
us'
I
japan
I rest of the
world
Ngudn: ECB.
Co
thi
thay
ring
do md
ciia Idn ciia
Eurozone la mot trong nhiing ylu tl giiip cho
ding

EUR dugc
sii
dung rgng rai trong thuomg
mai
quIc
tl. Yeu
ciu
su dung
ding
EUR trong
xuat nhap khau se
din din
mot loat cac hoat
dong tren cac thi trudng tai chinh ma mua ban
ngoai hoi va hoat dgng tai chinh phai sinh la
dien hinh. Do do, cac ngan hang cung se
cin
d\f
trii dong EUR trong du
tr&
ngoai
hIi
cua
minh dl can thiep vao thi trudng khi
cin
thilt.
Day la ly do lam cho ddng EUR dugc
sii
dung
ngay mot rgng rai hon.

Do anh hudng cua cuoc khiing hoang kinh
te toan
ciu,
tat ca cac
nude
deu co
miic
tang
trudng am ke tir cuoi nam 2008 cho den quy
IV
2009 va nam
2010
nen kinh te ciia cac
nude
tang trudng duong trd lai. Trong
do.
My la
nude
cd
miic
tang trudng trd lai nhanh va In
dinh nhat. Eurozone tang trudng tir tir va cham
hoi phuc hom so vdi My, con miirc tang trudng
ciia
Nhat Ban giao dgng manh.
DI
thi cho thay
trong thdi gian nay khong co khu vuc nao co
miic
do tang trudng

nii
bat. Dilu do cung
ding
nghTa vdi viec Eurozone kho long vugt
My vl quy mo kinh tl trong
ngin
han va dong
USD
vin
se giii vumg
vi
the hang dau
ciia
no
trong nhung nam tilp theo.
•
Su dn
dinh
miic gid chung
(Igm
phdt)
ciia Eurozone
56
NGHIEN
COU
CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°07 (130).2011
*
>
»

9
*
Mot dong tien cd the vuon den
vi
the
dong tiln quoc te tuc la dugc sir dung rgng rai
trong viec tich luy gia tri
va
su dung lam
phuong tien thanh toan thi nd phai co dugc
niem tin ciia ngudi nude ngoai ve tinh on dinh
cua no. Do do, su In dinh gia ca
ciia
Eurozone
dong mot vai tro dang ke trong viec quyet dinh
vi
the ciia dong EUR.
Ke tir nam 2000 den nay, lam phat
ciia
Eurozone luon giir d
miic thip
va on dinh, lam
phat trong giai doan tir nam 2000 den 2007
xoay quanh
mire
2%. Do anh hudng
ciia
cuoc
khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau, lam phat
ciia

khu vuc nay da dao dgng manh hon trudc, len
miic
4% vao nam 2008 va xuong
miic
dudi 0%
vao nam 2009, nhung sau do da In dinh trd lai
vao nam 2010.
So vdi cac nude, Eurozone van la noi co
gia ca dn dinh nhat ca trudc va sau khung
hoang. Giai doan tir 2000 - 2007, chenh lech
giiia
miic
gia thap nhat va cao nhat d khu vuc
nay chi la 0,5% trong khi d My la hon 2% va d
Nhat khoang 1,5%. Giai doan tir 2008 - 2010,
mire
dao dgng d My da len tdi 8% (gan 6%
nam 2008 va -2% nam 2009) va d Nhat Ban
cung la hon 4%.
Nhu vay,
sir
In dinh cua gia ca d cac
nude thanh vien giiip cho ddng EUR dugc tin
tudng
sii
dung rgng rai tren the gidi.
Gia ca tieu diing cua cac
nvdc
•United Kingdom
-Japan

6
4
I
I I I I 1 I I 1
I
I I I
I
I I I I
t
I I I I i I
/ijfc
I
H ) 1 1
—
-
-«f
\
-mr
-^\ -*-
^^i^y-W
"*
-^KT
yf-> L
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
2010
Ngudn: World
Statistics
Day
Contributions
of

central bank statistics
in a
global
context,
2010.
• Su phdt trien
vd
hgp nhat thi trudng
tdi chinh EU
Yeu to gop phan vao viec quyet dinh
vi
the quoc te
ciia
mot ddng tien la
sir
phat trien
cua cac thi trudng tai chinh tai
nude
phat hanh
dong tien dd. Cac thi trudng tai chinh cua chau
Au neu on dinh, phat trien va hgp tac tot
vdi
nhau se khien cho dong EUR nang cao dugc
vi
the
ciia
minh. Hien nay, thi trudng tai chinh
Eurozone co tinh thanh khoan cao, dac biet la
cac trai phieu chinh
phii bing

dong EUR.
Cd khoang 74% cac ngan hang trung
uong xac nhan tinh thanh khoan cao cua trai
phieu
dinh
danh
bing
ddng EUR. Cac trai
phieu chinh phu dinh danh
bing ding
EUR co
tinh
Idng
cao
thii
hai sau cac trai phieu dinh
danh
bing
USD.
Ben canh dd, chi phi giao dich tren cac thi
trudng tai chinh khu vuc ciing giam dang
ke.
Chi
phi giao dich ngoai hdi
gin
nhu
bing
khdng.
Chi
phi giao dich cd phieu va trai philu da giam lan

lugt
17%
va
14%
so vdi trudc
day^".
'
ECB
(2008,2009,2010),
sdd.
^e*tg Sdtdl
trin thi
tnOttg
tai
ehitih
57
100
Tinh thanh khoan cua cac trai phieu chinh phu dinh danh
bing
cac dong tien
Tinh thanh khoan cua cac trai phieu chinh phii djnh danh
bang cac dong tien
50
48
I I • •
11
Euzo Pound sterling Japanese
Yen
Aiistzalian Canadian KZ
dollar

S\%cdisli
krona Danisli
krone
AcSiAx
dollar
Ngudn: RBS Reserve Management Trends 2008.
Mac dil thi trudng tai chinh Eurozone da
timg
bude
phat triln nhung hien nay thi trudng
nay van
ehua
phat trien sau rgng nhu thi
trudng tai chinh Hoa Ky. Thi trudng co philu
ciia khu vuc nay mdi chi
bing
mot nira cua thi
trudng
CO
philu d
My^^.
Ben canh do, tinh
thilu hgp nhat cua cac thi trudng d Eurozone
da lam giam
miic
do hap
din ciia
cac co phieu
dinh danh
bing

EUR so vdi USD. Cac chinh
phii
d chau Au van dgc lap trong viec phat
hanh trai phieu va tu quylt dinh
miic
lai suat
din
den lai
suit
trai philu chinh phu d cac
nude
trong khu virc co
sir
chenh lech.
Chinh
sir
khac nhau vl he thing luat
phap,
he thong thanh toan va he thing thul
ciia
cac
quIc
gia thanh vien da can trd
sir
phat
triln va hgp
nhit
thi trudng tai chinh toan khu
vuc.
KI

tir nam
1999,
khu vuc nay da thilt lap
mot chuong trinh
nhim
hgp nhat thi trudng tai
chinh
CO
ten ggi
la
FSAP, nhung dh hoan thanh
chuong trinh nay
cin
cd mot thdi gian dai.
• Lich
sir
cua dong tiin
Lich
sii
cua dong tiln cung la mot trong
nhirng
yeu to anh hudng
din
vi
thi
quoc te cua
mOt
dong tiln. Trong
Hch
sii,

ding
USD da
timg thay
thi vi
tri hang
diu
ciia Bang Anh
tren cac thi trudng toan
ciu,
nhung thdi ky sau
do Bang Anh van dugc
sii
dung kha rong rai.
Ly do la trong mot thdi gian dai, ngudi ta da
hinh thanh thdi quen sir dung Bang Anh trong
cac giao dich kinh tl. Thuc tl la nam 2004, gia
tri cua Bang Anh trong cac giao dich ngoai hoi
chiem den 16,9% trong
ting
gia tri giao dich
toan cau
26
Mat khac, kl tir sau Chiln tranh
thi
gidi
thir Hai, ngay cang co nhieu ngudi sii dung
dong USD. Dilu nay
din din
cac giao dich
bing

USD trd nen de dang va it chi phi hom.
Cang
CO
nhilu nude sii dung
ding
USD trong
giao dich quoc tl thi chi phi giao dich bang
USD cang
thip.
Do do, mgt
nude
se do du
trong viec ngimg sir dung dong USD trong cac
giao dich quoc te ciia minh du co mong muon
su dung mot
ding
tiln
Idiac,
trir khi biet chac
chin ring
cac
quIc
gia khac cung lam tuomg
tu. Day
la
ly do khiln cho vi tri cua
ding
USD
kho
CO thi

bi thay
thi.
Thdi gian kl tir khi
ding
EUR dugc dua vao su dung chinh thiic
trong
ITnh
vuc tiln mat
din
nay
ehua
phai la
mot khoang thdi gian dai, trong khi USD da
chiem
vi
the dgc ton tir
gin
60 nam nay. Do
do,
EUR
vin ehua thi
trd thanh thach thiic
Idn
dii
vdi vi
thi
cua USD.
25
/> 2*
58

NGHIEN
CCrU
CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°07 (1301.2011
Tinh hinh sir dyng dong USD
&
cac khu
vifc
tren the
gidi
(%)
Ui.
dollar invoicing sharein country exports
I
Ukraine
i Malaysia
Indonesia *»PalJstai
,
A
*
Thailand
M Korea
Australia*
Israel
U|iaiia
^^h
&eece
Netherlands
*frante*spj,in
^

le^ium ^IwCyiinE
,
.
« .^1 Pojanl
%oatia,
*™5*embo.rg»
\^
F
'
irk Sovakia
MAfrica
iapai
Latvia
f
Romania
Estonb
U.S.
dollar invoicing share
in
country imports
|asashafetftiAaiin|iorts|
\M!t
«
Turkey
aeece
iFrance
"^iCypms Wa
UK
j,^
Estoiia •Poland

•
,
CzechRepubiicij (Hungary § FVIIM
Deimark l&M^a
Sovenla
Indonesia
South
4j3«Thailand
Ngudn: The global use
Co
thi thiy
cac nude thugc khu vuc EU
sii
dung dong USD rat han che trong cac giao
dich
ciia
minh, trong khi cac nude d
Idiu
vuc
nhu chau A, Trung Ddng va My Latinh lai chu
yeu
sii
dung dong USD. Diln hinh nhu Algeria
su dung dong USD trong gan nhu hau
hit
cac
hgp dong xuat khau, hay hon 80% hgp dong
nhap
khiu
cua Indonesia dugc thanh toan

bing
USD.
Dieu nay la do mot so nguyen nhan sau:
Thir nhdt, a mot
si nude
san
phim
xuat khau
chii
yeu la dau md san pham dugc dinh gia
theo USD (trudng hgp Algeria -
nude
cung
cap dau
thii
7
thi
gidi); Thir hai, thdi quen su
dung USD lam
ding
tiln chinh ffong thanh
toan
quIc
te (Han Quoc);
Thii
ba, miirc do ddla
hoa cao trong mot so
nIn
kinh tl.
of the Dollar and Euro,

2010.
Nhu vay, dong EUR
vin
con kem lgi the
so vdi ddng USD d mot vai ylu td nhu quy mo
kinh tl cua Eurozone cdn kem so vdi My, thi
trudng tai chinh d Eurozone
ehua
phat trien va
thilu tinh hgp nhat so vdi thi trudng tai chinh
d My, thdi gian luu hanh cua EUR ehua lau.
Dilu nay giai thich tai sao EUR chi diing vi tri
thii
hai sau USD.
3.
Vi the cua dong EUR trong
tumig
lai
Hien nay, ddng EUR dang phai doi mat
vdi thach thiic rat
Idn
tir cude khiing hoang ng
cdng chau Au. Sau khung hoang kinh te toan
cau nam 2008, nhieu nude thanh vien trong
khu vuc dong EUR da vi
pham_
nghiem trgng
thoa thuan Masstricht - mot thda thuan vdi cac
dilu kien dam bao cho
sir tin

tai va on dinh
ciia
ddng EUR.
^Deng^/ltU
trin thi
trtOng
tai ehinh
59
10,0
5,0
0.0
•5,0
•10,0
•15,0
Tham hut ngan sach va
no-
cong cua cac nude Eurozone 2001 - 2009
• 10,0
Budget deficit
%
Of
GDP
\.
Ireland
PuWicdcbti^iofGDP
I I I I I I I I
00 01
02
03 04 05
06 07

08 09
Greece jgQ
JQ
00 01
02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Oa
130
110
90
70
50
30
10
Ngudn: European Commission.
Theo thoa thuan Masstricht, cac nude gia
nhap
khIi
Eurozone phai co
miic
tham hut
ngan sach d
miic
dudi 3% GDP, nhung ty le
tham hut ngan sach va ng cong cua mot so
nude
thanh vien da tang dot biln ke tir nam
2008.
Nam 2009,
miic
tham hut ngan sach

ciia
cac
nude
Y,
BI
Dao Nha, Tay Ban Nha,
Ailen
va Hy Lap da dao dgng d muc tir 5%
din
15%
GDP,
trong dd Hy Lap la nude co
miic
tham
hut ngan sach
Idn
nhat (15% GDP). Ben canh
do,
nhilu nude da cd ty le ng cong vugt qua
miic
60% theo thoa thuan Masstricht. Cu the
Hy Lap va Y la nude co ty le ng cong
Idn
nhit,
d
miic
120% GDP, ty le ng cdng d Bo Dao
Nha la 60% GDP va d Tay Ban Nha la
gin
70%

GDP (nam 2009).
Tinh den thdi dilm hien nay da cd ba
nude
la Hy Lap, Ailen va Bo Dao Nha phai xin
vien tro tir ECB va IMF bdi cac quoc gia nay
khong con kha nang tra ng.
Vi
the cua dong
EUR dang phai doi mat vdi thach thiic
Idn
nhat
ke tir khi ra ddi, khi ma cuoc khung hoang ng
ehua
dugc giai quylt
diit
dilm va co nguy co
lan rong sang cac
nude
khac cua khu vuc do
cac nen kinh te trong Khoi co lien quan mat
thilt vdi nhau va hien tugng vay ng chong
cheo giira cac nude trong KhIi. Trudng hgp
Tay Ban Nha la mot vi du ro net nhat.
Nude
nay dang la
chii
ng
Idn nhit
ciia Bo Dao Nha.
Viec

BI
Dao Nha khong
thi
giai quylt dugc
ng
nIn ding
nghia vdi viec dat Tay Ban Nha
vao tinh trang bao dgng. Hien nay, cac
nude
EU mdi chi dua ra nhiing giai phap mang tinh
chit
tam thdi dl
khIng
che khiing hoang, tuy
nhien, cac van de
cit
loi cua KhIi - nguyen
nhan chinh gay ra khung hoang ehua dugc giai
quylt triet dk. Dilu nay anh hudng khong it tdi
tuomg lai dai ban ciia dong EUR.
60
NGHIEN
COU
CHAU AU - EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°07 (130).2011
Trong boi canh tren,
ding
NDT dugc nhieu
ngudi xem nhu la ddng tien co kha nang thay the
vi

tri thir 2 cua EUR nhu la mot bien phap tranh
sir
le thugc qua mure vao My. Bdi le, trong thdi
gian gan day, Trung QuIc dang noi len nhu la
mot
nIn
kinh te co toe do tang trudng cao. Nam
2010,
GDP tinh theo ngang gia
siic
mua
ciia
Trung Quoc hon 10 nghin ty USD, ddng gop
13,267%
trong GDP toan the gidi, chilm
vi
tri la
nen kinh tl
Idn
thir hai tren the gidi. Chinh phu
Trung Quoc ciing dang thuc hien nhirng bude de
dua NDT sir dung rgng rai trong cac quan he
kinh te quoc
te.
Thiir
nhdt,
Trung QuIc da ky vdi
nhieu
nude
tren the gidi ve viec

sii
dung dong
ban te cua moi nude lam phuong tien thanh toan
thay
VI
sir dung ddng USD hay mot ngoai te
thii
3 khac.
Thir
hai,
nude nay da ky hiep udc hoan
doi tien te vdi nhieu nude tren
thi
gidi.
Ben canh
do,
chinh phu nude nay cung thuc hien chuong
trinh
thii
nghiem sir dung Nhan dan te cho xuat
khau. Ngoai ra, Trung QuIc cung tim each nang
cao
vi
the cua minh trong
IMF.
Dau thang
9/2009, Trung QuIc mua trai philu
IMF
vdi gia
tri tuong duomg 50 ty USD

(bing
khoang 32 ty
SDR)
,27
Mac dil phai doi mat vdi thach thiic
Idn
tir
cuoc khung hoang chau Au, nhung xet nhiing
yeu to quylt dinh
vi thi
cua mot ddng tiln thi
ddng NDT hoan toan khong cd kha nang thay
thi
EUR trong thdi gian tdi, bdi le NDT khong
cd dugc lgi
thi
nhu EUR.
Vl
phia
ding
EUR,
de dong tiln nay cd dugc
sir
phat triln
bin
viing, Eurozone noi rieng va khu vuc EU ndi
^'
/>usd-qua-cac-giai-doan-tac-dong-doi-voi-viet-nam-
.336826.html
chung can phai dua ra dugc nhirng bien phap

khic
phuc dugc nhirng diem yeu
ciia
Khoi, de
dam bao
ring
tinh trang tdi te hien nay se
khong tiep dien trong tuong lai. Ngay ca khi
khu vuc nay phat trien on dinh diing quy dao
ciia
no, EUR
vin
can mot sd ylu tl
cin
thilt
de trd thanh ddi trgng
ciia
USD, do do vdi tinh
trang hien nay
ciia
khu vuc chau Au, dong tien
nay khong
thi
thach thirc vi tri
ciia
USD trong
tuong lai gan.
Tai lieu tham khao
1.
BIS, 2010, Foreign exchange and

derivatives market activity in
April
2010.
2.
ECB (2008, 2009, 2010), The
international role
of
the
EURO,

ml
3.
Elias
Papaioannou and Richard Portes
(2008),
The international role of
the
euro: a
status
report,
European Commission.
4.
Georges Pineau,
(2010),
The global use
of the
dollar
and
Euro,
European Commission,

tai lieu dugc lay tir trang web
^pub/html/index.en.html
5.
Gertrude Tumpel - Gugerell (2009),
presentation The Future of Reserve
Currencies,
ECB.
6. Kristin J.Forbes (2010), Underlying
determinants
of global
currency
status.
7.
/>vi-the-dong-usd-qua-cac-giai-doan-tac-dong-
doi-voi-viet-nam 336826.html
8.

ml/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html
9.
/>statistics