Tâm lý nhà đầu tư trên thị trường tài chính việt nam

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^ THI THUONG T«l CHJMH

Oat van tfe
Trin thi trudng, tdm ly cdc nha ddu
tu tudn chi phdi rdt ldn den mde dd
on dfnh cOa thi trudng, dgc biit la doi

TJillJILYNiiJlllAUTII
TRiNTH! TRUONG TAI CHfNH VIET NAM

vdi thi trUdng tdi chinh, stf tdc dong
ci^a yeu t6 tdm ly ludn diin bien rdt

•SJ>G5'., TS. Nguyin Trgng Tdi *

phdc tgp, Ichien thj tn/dng tdi chinh
ludn tiem dn yeu to bdt Sn dinh rdt

p h l t t r i l n , t f l dd giup thflc day nen

cao. Id nhdn to chu chot gdy ra cdc

kinh t l - xa hpi phat t r i l n .

cudc hodng logn thi trudng,

thj trudng tai chfnh cang bj rung \k
manh hon, khi d d d c chfnh sach tai
chfnh tien te se bj suy g i l m h i i u luc

khiin

Tam ly NDT tren thj trUdng t l i

cho viec trien khai cdc chinh sdch

ehfnh la su phan anh thai do efla

Tdm /y tu tin thdi qud cua NDT dan

kinh te vi mo luon gap rdt nhieu kho

NDT trude c l e d i l n bien cfla thj

den logi tdm ly tgc quan hodc bi quan

khdn, thgm chi ket qud di nguac so

trudng tai chinh. Bat c f l dien b i l n

thdi qud

vdi muc tieu ky vong.

nao cfla thj trUdng tai chinh deu t i e

Lac quan la mot trang thai tam

ddng tflc thdi d i n dien b i l n t i m ly

ly tfeh cue, nd giflp cho con ngudi

efla NDT

vugt qua nhflng hoan c l n h sdng

Doi vdi Viet Nam, stf tdc dong cuo
yeu to tdm ly tren thi trudng nhtfng
nam qua Id rdt phUc tap, gdy ra
n/iuvig he qud xdu, de doa mdt on

T r i n thj trudng tai ehinh Vift Nam,
NDT cd d c dac d i l m tam iy sau:

dinh kinh te vi mo, an ninh tai chinh

Thiif nhat, tdm ly tutin thdi qua''

khdng dugc bdo ddm. Thtfc te ndy
ddt ra yeu cdu cdn phdi co cdc nghien
cdu nghiem tuc vesUdnh hudng cda
tdm ly cdc nhd dau tu trin thi trudng
tdi chinh, tien te d Viet Nam.
Bdi viit ndy tap trung de cap den
nhtfng dgc diem tdm ly nha ddu tuva
sutac dgng cua nd tdi stf on dinh cOa
thf trudng tdi chinh Viet Nam nhtfng
ndm qua, ttf do, tdc gid dua ra mdt
so khuyen nghj chinh sdch nhdm on

dmh tdm ly cdc nha dau tU nhtfng
ndm tdi.

Dae d i l m t i m 1]^ chung efla ngudi
Viet Nam la nang dpng va linh hoat,
vOi tam ly nay giflp cho ngudi Viet
Nam de thfch flng vdi mgi hoan
c l n h . Cd le tam 1^ nay xuat phat t f l
h o l n canh sdrrg efla ngudi Viet tflxa
xUa cho d i n nay ludn phai ddi mat
vOi dieu kien thien tai khae nghift,
lai p h l i thudng x u y i n chdng lai
d c t h l luc ngoai bang xam lugc va
chinh vi co tfnh nang ddng linh boat

gid bat ipi, t f l do giflp con ngufli
vUgt qua mgi kho khan t h i c h thflc
Chfnh nhd ngudi Viet Nam cd tam ly
lac quan, ludn tin v i o sflc manh npi
tai, nen chflng ta da chien thang tat
e l d e k i thfl x l m luge, eho dfl d6 la
nhflng cUdng qudc ngoai bang.Tuy
vly, n l u lae quan t h l i q u i thl khdng
hSn (a mpt Uu the, bdi rat cdthe con
ngudi khdng nhan thflc h i t dupc
nhflng rao c l n , hay ndi d c h khac,
tam ly nay rat de k h i l n eon n g u ^
ed t h l i do "bat chap". Vdi thai do b^t
chap, khi vap p h l i nhflng r i o cln
khdng the vupt qua dupc, cd t h l

nay, nen eho du trong bat cfl dieu

k h i l n ngudi ta ed tam ly bi quan,

k i f n v l hoan d n h nao thi ngUdi

chan n l n va lai de sa lay vao tam \j

1. Dac tfi^m tam ly nha tfau tU
tren thj trUtfng tai chfnh Viet Nam

Viet ludn de dang thfch tfng chfl

bi quan. T r i n thi trudng tai ehinh,

khdng chju k h u i t phuc, khdng bj

tam i^ lae quan s i giflp eho cac

Co t h l h i l u nhd ddu tu (NDT) Id

d l n h mat b i n s3c dan tgc. Trin thj

NDT khi kinh doanh bj thua 16 cflng

ngudi thtfc hien cdc hogt ddng ddu

trudng tai ehfnh, tfnh nang ddng

khdng bj mat tinh than.Tuy vly, neu

tu tren nhtfng phdn khuc thi trUdng

va linh hoat se giflp e l c NDT ludn

NDT ed tam ly lae quan t h l i q u i thl

khde nhau, dudi cdc hinh thtfc khde

t u t i n va flng p h d rat nhanh vdi eac

rat de bj cudn vao d c hoat dpng

nhau nham thu dugc cdc Igi ich theo

dien bien cOa thj trudng, tuy vay, do

kinh doanh cho dfl dang bj thua 16

ky vgng. NDT bao ham c l NDT t d

su han c h l nhat djnh ve nhan thflc

v l khdng b i l t d i n d i l m dflng va

ehflc va NDT d

mdt khi NDT bi thua 16 qua Idn thl

nhan. Trong moi

thi trudng ( c l v l d c giao djch tren

nen kinh te, NDT ed vai trd rat quan

thj trudng lan thdng tin thi trUOng),

rat de bj c h u y l n sang t h l i cue khac

trgng, bdi hp la ngudi khai pha cac

nen su linh hoat va n l n g dpng nay

dd la bi quan q u i mflc. Su bi quan

ca hdi dau t u trong nen kinh te,

rat de nghieng sang t h l i cue de bj

qua mflc cfla cac NDT s i k h i l n thj

giflp bd sung nguon lUc cho dau t u

dao ddng. Vdi thien hUdng de bj

trudng tai chfnh bi ddng bang keo

* Hoc vl^n Ngan hang
^

dao dgng trudc d e dien bien bat

d l i , khi d d c l e chfnh sach tai c h f n h i

thuOng cua thj trudng, se khien cho

t i l n t f se bj suy g l i m h i i u luc.

TAP CHi NGAN HANG | SO 13 | THANG 7/2016

I


TH| TRadNG TAI CHINK ^ ^

Thijf h a i , tdm ly hoi tiic^

nghiep chua eao khi tham gia tren

sach ma NDT eo the Igi dung de true

Dae diem tam ly ngUdi V i i t la

thj trudng tai chinh, thdng tin tren

Igi d n h l n , g l y phuang hai d i n Ipi

sdng thien v l t m h e l m (duy tinh

thj trUdng tai chinh thieu minh

ich chung - lam h i f u luc cfla chfnh

hon duy ly), dieu n l y cd ngudn gdc

bach, giao djeh ndi gian chua dugc

sleh tai chfnh bj suy giam.

t f l v l n hda phuong Odng cung nhu

k i l m s o l t t d t . . . khien eac NDT

ehinh t f l nhflng khd khan do t h i i n

thudng hanh xfl theo dam ddng.

tai, djch hpa ma con ngudi ludn

Tam ly nay da va dang tiep tue g l y

p h l i ddi mat va d l cd the "sdng

ra d c vu h o i n g loan tren thj trudng

chung" vdi nhflng hoan c l n h khac

tai ehinh. Tfl do dat ra yeu cau vdi

n g h i f t nay thi b3t bude con ngudi

eac n h i chfle trach la phai biet n l m

p h l i doan ket vdi nhau, sutfnh t o l n
" t h i i t han"thudng it khi dupc dat ra
trong cac quan h f cdng ddng. Xet
tren khfa canh nay thl day la mdt Uu
d i l m , nd eho phep gSn k i t d c cdng
ddng vdi nhau va con ngudi ft ttnh

b i t dugc xu hudng van hanh dam
ddng t r i n co sd p h l i " n l m duoc
ngudi cd toe" thl elc chinh sach tai
chinh mdi cd hieu luc'.
Thtf t a , (dm ly bdo todn - khdng
muon mdt mdf

Thfl' n d m , tam ly dtfa vdo kinh
nghiim^
Khi de cap d i n to ehat efla ngudi
V i i t Nam hien cd kha nhieu quan
diem khie nhau: Cd y k i l n eho r i n g
ngudi V i i t Nam cd td chat thdng
minh - duge the h i f n qua ele ky
thi hgc sinh gidi qudc te d hau h i t
cac mdn hpe bae trung hpc phd
thdng hole thi nang khieu nghe.
Tuy vay, cung khdng it y kien cho
rang ngUdi V i i t Nam khdng thdng

toan c l nhln.Trong boat ddng kmh

Tren thi trudng tai chfnh Viet Nam,

minh, ma chi la "lanh lpi" - t h l hien

te ndi chung, nhat la tren thj trudng

NDT thudng la nhflng ngUdi e d t i l n

d ehd ngudi Vift Nam chi gidi " b i t

tai chfnh, d i e d i l m t i m ly nay ehi

tiet k i f m va vifc phan bd cac k h o l n

chudc, lam theo" chfl ft cd k h i nang

phdi rat manh tdi cac quyet djnh

tien tiet kiem nay n h u t h e nao hoan

sang tao nhu ngudi Trung Qudc,

efla NDT, khi ay, NDT t h i i n v l y l u

toan phu thudc vao trang t h l i tam

td d m tfnh d nhan de dUa ra d c

iy cfla hg. Khi NDT cd tam ly bi quan

q u y l t djnh dau t u cfla mlnh (thay vl

eflng cd nghta rang hg it tin v i o d c

ra quyet dinh dau tU theo sU mach

chinh sleh t l i chfnh, hay ndi each

b i o cfla ly tri). Han nfla, triet ly sdng
"duy tinh" de dan d i n sU n l nang
nhau trong d c quan h i tai chinh,
coi nhe d e rang bupc t r i e h n h i f m .
Su Idng leo trong hoat dpng tai
chfnh d l d i n d i n nhflng rfli ro do
v d tai chfnh, bdi vl t r i l t I]? "duy tinh
han duy ly"se khien cho ngudi ta cd
t i m ly "el t i n " de bj du d6 vao eac
cam b3y t l i ehfnh.

khac tam ly bi quan ehinh la sU
p h l n flng efla NDT vdi mdi trudng
chinh sach va nd cflng ddng thOi

N h l t B i n , H i n Qudc... Day chfnh
la loai tam ly "thfeh di theo loi mdn"
cua ngUOi Viet Nam.Trin thj trUdng
tai chinh, tam ly nay khien cho viec

t r i l n khai cle cdng eu tai chinh mdi
rat khd khan.

hlnh thanh nen loai tam l y " t u b i o
v f b i n than" - la mdt van de tat yeu
vdi d c NDT tren nhuTig thj trUOng
tai chfnh t h i l u minh bach^ N l u nhU
tam ly n l y dien bien phflc tap cd

2. Cac nhan to chi phdi tam
lyNDT
Thvtnhdt,

nang luc cua NDT han

che

t h l hlnh thanh loai tam ly mdi khie

Nang luc cfla NDT cd t h l dUgc

- tam ly ddi chgi chinh sleh; vdi

nhin n h l n tren cac gdc dp: (i) Trinh

tam ly nay, cle NDT ludn cho rSng

dp c h u y i n mdn; (ii) Kinh n g h i f m

Th uT ba, tdm ly bdy ddn^

v i i c ban hanh ra d c chfnh sleh tai

dau tu. Cac ket q u i khao s i t n g h i i n

CIc cugc chay dua n l n g lai suat

ehfnh ehlng qua chf 6e d m d o l n , o

cflu v l nang lue cfla cac NDT tren thi

(LS) huy dpng cfla cac NHTM xuat

ep, b i t d c NDT vao ele khudn khd

trudng chflng khoan V i i t Nam efla

p h l t t f l flng x f l cfla ngudj gfli t i l n ,

khdng cd lpi... v l vl vay cac NDT

Nguyin Dfle Hien (2012) cho thay:

nhflng ddng ngudi lu lugt chd

ludn tim d c h de doi chpi vdi chfnh

Ve trinh do hgc vdn^: Cd tdi 76%

chUc tai d c tiem kim hoan de mua

sach, " l i c h " chfnh sach mien sao cd

NDT chflfng k h o l n cd trinh 6g cao

Igi eho e l nhan NDT. Cfng phd vOi

d i n g , dai hgc, han nfla, cac NDT

v i n g , d c lan sdng mua ban ehflng
k h o l n , d e hoat dpng dau co ngoai
te ... nhflng nam qua cho thay rang
"hanh x f l theo dam ddng" la mdt
d i e d i l m tam ly cfla ngUdi Vift Nam
tren thj trddng tai chfnh.Tam ly nay
xuat p h l t t f l nhieu nguyen nhan:
Kinh n g h i f m

it va tinh

chuyen

loai tam ly nay, cac nha lam chfnh
sach tren thj trudng tai chfnh khdng
chl p h l i quan tam den v i i c ban
hanh ele chfnh sach sao cho "dep"
ve ndi dung, ma rat d n p h l i quan
t i m den vife lam the nao de "bjt"
ele ke h d trong d c van b i n chfnh

chfl yeu lam trong nganh tai chinh
-ngan h l n g (NH).
Ve tcflu tren cho thay rang, cd tdi 66%
NDT t r i n thj trUdng chflng k h o l n
Viet Nam cd rat it kinh nghiem (chl
t f l 1-5 nam kinh nghiem), cdn cac
TAPCHiNGANHANG | S6l3 | THANG7/2016

©

1


I T H I TRUdNG TAI CHiNH

NDT ed t r i n 5 nam kinh n g h i f m chl

Thdtw, tam ly thieu on djnh

LS huy ddng t i l n gfli tfl 15%/nan#

k h o i n g 23%.

Nhu trong dac d i l m thl nhln

len 19%/nam, LS cho vay duge day

Nhu v l y , ed the th^y rang, mac dfl

chung d c NDT Viet ed tam trang lae

d c NDT tren thj trudng tai ehinh

quan t h l i q u i v l vdi tam trang nay

Cupc chgy dua tdng LS Idn 2: Dau

cd trinh do hgc van cao, nen ve

thi xu hudng la NDT ra cle q u y l t

nam 2009, LS huy ddng cfla cac

nguyen ly thl xu hudng ho s i tham

djnh dau t u thudng ft d n than.

NHTM tang

gia nhieu hon vao cac hoat dgng

Doi nguge vdi tam trang lac quan

la bdi elc NHTM d f l b i o nhu clu

dau t u t r e n thi trUdng tai chinh. Tuy

thai qua la t i m trang bi quan t h l i

vdn cfla d c doanh nghiep se ting

vay, do it kinh n g h i f m dau t u tren

q u i - day la tam trang " x l u " va vdi

manh trong nam 2009 va cac NHTM

thj trudng t l i chinh, nen cflng i l

tam trang n l y thi nhln chung, NDT

p h l i c h u i n bj ngudn vdn dap flng

r i o e i n ddi vdi d c NDT tham gia

thudng q u i can than trong cac

c l e nhu e l u nay, chfnh vl t h l , mdt

vao d c boat ddng dau tU tai chinh,

q u y l t djnh dau t u cua minh, t i m

cude chay dua n l n g lai suat tai tat

cung cd nghla la mdt khi elc NDT

trang nay cflng t i e ddng den sU tri

d

mae d u e d trinh dp cao nhung ehUa

tre keo dai cua mdt sd phan khflc

h l u h i t eac ky ban, t f l ky ban theo

c6 n h i l u kinh nghiem dau tUvao thj

thj trudng tai chfnh Viet Nam thdi

tuan den ky han 36 thang. Do nhu

trudng tai chinh thl dien bien cle

gian qua.

de dpa su dn djnh b i n vflng cua thi
trudng chflng khoan.
That hai, dp tudi cua NDT cao'
K i t q u i k h i o sat cua Nguyen Dflc
Hien (2012) cflng chi ra r i n g , 3%

nhe, n g u y i n

nhan

d c NHTM dugc t r i l n khai vfli

cau hap thu vdn trong n l n kinh t l

hoat ddng dau t u se rat khd ludng,
trudng tai ehinh, d i e biet la vdi thi

i i n tdi 21 % / n l m d n h i l u NHTM.

tang cao nen l l n sdng dua tang LS

3. Anh hiTtfng tam ly NDT ttfi sir
on fmh cua thj trUtfng tai chinh
Viet Nam
3.1. Anh fitfdng den thi

trUi/ng

tin dung ngdn hang

huy ddng VND d cac NHTM van tilp
tuc k h i l n LS huy dpng VND t i l n sat
mflc tran cho vay.
Cugc chgy dua ndng LS Idn 3: Dau
t h i n g 11 nam 2010, LS huy ddng

a) Anh hirdng d^n huy dong von

vdn b l n g VND efla d c NHTM ddng

NDT c6 dp tudi dudi 25; 33% cd dp

Do n l n t i n g tai chfnh thap, d c

loat tang manh. Den gifla thing

tuoi tfl 25-35; 56% cd dp tuoi tfl 36-

cdng cu huy ddng vdn truyen thong

11/2010, d c mflc LS lien tue bj

55; 8% cd dp tudi tren 55. Cd nghTa

k b l don dieu, trong khi tam ly

pha vd, bieu LS cfla NHTM nhfeh
tflng ngly, k i m theo d c hlnh thflc

la da phan NDT tren thj trudng t l i

nhflng ngudi gfli t i l n cdn kha "bat

chinh cua Viet Nam d dp tudi kha

an" do rfli ro tiem an trong h i thdng

khuyen mai nhU qua tang, tien

cao, dieu nay cd anh hUdng rat ldn

ngan hang edn kha cao, hOn nfla, LS

thudng, thUdng LS, quay so trung

den van de phan bo t l i k h o l n dau

van chua thuc sU bap dan ngudi gfli

thudng... d i t a n g sflc canh tranh va

tu.

tien do chUa dfl bu d i p dupe nhflng

gifl c h i n khach hang dang cd quan

ThUtba, NOT chfl y l u la nam gidi

rfli ro tiem an, thanh k h o l n cfla mdt

he giao djch vdi NH eflng nhu thu

Cle NDT tren thj trudng tai ehfnh

sd NHTM van cdn ratyeu... nen k b l

hut khieh hang mdi.

chfl y l u van la nam gidi vdi ty l i

nang bat dn cfla tien gfli van cdn

Cupc chgy dua ndng LS Idn 4; Trong

l i n tOi 65% tdng cle NDT tren thj

cao, t f l dd, k h i n l n g kich hoat eac

giai doan t f l t h i n g 3 d i n t h i n g 8

trudng. (Nguyen Dflc Hien, 2012).

cupc chay dua nang LS huy ddng

nam 2011, do ap lUc thanh khoan

vdn trong h i thdng NH van cd t h l

d n g t h i n g , budc ele NHTM phai

x l y ra.

tiep tue nang LS huy ddng VND

Cac nghien cflli cho thay

trin

thj trudng tai chinh thl nam gidi
thudng cd mflc dp t U t i n trong dau
t u cao hon nfl giOi. Tuy vly, nghien

cflu cflng chi ra r i n g mflc dp thanh
cdng trong d c giao djeh tai chfnh
cua nfl gidi thudng cao hon so vdi
nam gidi. Dieu nay ed nghfa I I ty
trong nam gidi boat dpng dau tU
tren thj trudng t l i chfnh d n g cao
thl mfle do that bai trong eac hoat
ddng dau t u d n g ldn.

^

TAPCHINGANHANG [ S013 | THANG7/2016

Trong thdi gian qua, V i i t Nam da

khien mfle LS huy ddng bang VND

t r i i qua mpt sd cudc chay dua nang

d mfle tang cao v i o cudi nam 2010.

LS huy ddng vdn.

Thue t l t r i n eho thay, cac cupc

Cudc chgy dua LS Idn 1: Dau nam

chay dua nang LS huy ddng vdn

2008, d c NHTM Vift Nam da p h l i

thudc ndi bp h i thdng NH, song,

t r i i qua nhflng thdi diem khd khan

chfl yeu nd cd n g u y i n n h l n tfl t i m

ve thanh k h o l n bdi khach hang

ly khach h l n g gfli tien. V l nguyin j

rflt tien khdi nhflng NH cd LS thap

ly thl LS huy ddng vdn cao hay

va gfli d ngan hang cd LS cao. Chi

thap p h l i tfly thupe vao x l p hang |

trong vai ngay, cd nhflng NH da d^y

tfn nhiem cfla NHTM: NHTM d u g c l


THI TRUdNG TAI CHINH ^ ^

xep hang tin nhiem d n g cao thl LS

van chua cd hdi ket, thl thj trudng

tai chinh, suy t h o l i kinh t l t o l n e l u

huy ddng vdn cang thap v l nguge

tai chfnh Vift Nam lien tuc p h l i ddi

t i c ddng. Nhieu doanh n g h i f p xuat

lai. Tuy v l y , tai Viet Nam h i i n nay,

mat vdi d c cfl sdc dau co tren thi

khau da gam gifl ngoai te vl lo sp sU

edng t i c xep bang tfn nhiem d c

trudng bat ddng s i n , vang, ngoai

b i l n dpng cfla ty* g i l qua Idn l l m

TCTD chua dupc phd bien rdng rai,

t f v l ngudn vdn cho cac hoat dpng

cho d c NH khdng cd ngudn cung

nen nhflng n l m qua, v l eo b i n ,

d i u CO nay cflng chu y l u di vay t f l

ngoai t f de dfl d i l u hda cho nen

d c NHTM van phai t u i n thfl LS do

d c TCTD, nd lai eang k h i l n eho tin

kinh te g l y ra tinh trang c i n g t h i n g

NHNN quy i^nh. Do v l y , ngudi gfli

dung ngan hang tang trudng ndng.

eho thj trudng ngoai hdi. Khdng ehi

tien s i cd xu hUdng: (i) Rut n g l n

Vdi eac b i f n p h l p t h i t chat q u i n ly

vay, gidi dau ca cd Iflc cdn dUa ra

k^ han gfli t i l n de t u phdng v i rfli

thj trUdng cfla cac nha quan ly, nhat

ele tin don t h i t t h i i t n h l m k i l m lOi

ro; (ii) tim kiem d c NHTM cd mflc

la cfla elc n h i ehflc t r i c h t i l n te, thl

tren sUbiln ddng ty gia manh tai thi

LS huy ddng cao hon de tang thu

d c h l n h vi dau co true Ipi bj triet

trudng phi chinh thflc - thj trudng

nhap t f l cle k h o l n t i l n gfli; (iii) ky

tieu tflng bude. Cd the nhan t h l y rat

mua b i n ngoai t f t u do. Thuc t l

vgng NHNN ludn dtJng ra b i o lanh

rd mdi tUOng t i c gifla tang trUdng

cung cho thay tam ly gam gifl ngoai

cho d c k h o l n t i l n gCri cfla mlnh

tin dung vdi su bien ddng cfla thi

t f cd tac ddng khdng tdt den thj

dupc an toan thdng qua d c cam

trudng nhflng nam qua. Rd r i n g la

trudng ngoai hdi da dugc g i l m bdt

k i t khdng eho NH sup do. Sueanh

tam ly NDT tren thj trUdng tai chfnh

nhd v i o nhflng h i i u flng tfch cue

tranh q u y l t l i f t trong huy ddng vdn

Viet Nam da khien cho thi truOng

tfl dieu chinh ty g i l . Ndi mdt eleh

trong he thdng NHTM Viet Nam

dien b i l n r l t phflc tap, khi thl qua

khac, tam ly gam gifl ngoai t i I I mgt

d nhflng thdi diem trong nhflng

ndng, Ifle thl q u i lanh. SU ndng lanh

h i f n tupng thuc day nhflng ddi mdi

nam qua da tac dgng b i t Igi d i n

that thudng cfla thj trUdng tai chfnh

cho CSTT efla Vift Nam.

he thdng NH, d c doanh n g h i i p va

do tac dgng tam ly NDT k h i l n cho

B i n canh t i m ly gam gifl ngoai

nen kinh te, bdi khi da n l n g LS huy

mdi trudng tin dung cfla Viet Nam

te, thl d c t i m iy khic ddng thdi

ddng thl LS eho vay eung se p h l i

d l b i l n ddng va khd kiem soat. Cd

tac ddng den hanh vi efla cle NDT

tang, t f l do, lam mat t i e dung efla

t h l n h l n thay rat rd thuc trang nay

khi kinh doanh ngoai tf, do I I : CIc

ddn bay LS ddi vdi nen kinh te.

thdng qua dien b i l n ng xau cfla he

NHTM nhd thudng d n cfl v i o h l n h

thdng NH Viet Nam: t f l d i l n b i l n cfla

dgng efla elc NH Idn hon di dieu

CO cau ng xau d mdt sd NH cho thay

chinh ty g i l mua vao va ban ra, tam

b) Anh hadng den hoat dong
cho vay cua cac NH
Vdi mdt nudc m l tfch luy ngi bg

ty trpng ngxau cd lien quan d i n bat

ly nay k h i phd bien va cd the gpi la

chua cao, tham hut ngan sach cdn

ddng s i n ludn kha cao va xfl ly ludn

tam ly hanh dgng theo ngUdi dan

cao, trong khi nhu eau vdn cho

rat khd khan do thj trudng bat ddng

dudng (mdt bieu h i i n cfla Tam ly

d i u t u phat trien eao n h l m dap

s i n phyc hdi qua c h l m do cle NDT

gifl chat - Anchoring). X i t t r i n gde

flTng cho elc nhu d u tang trUdng

h i f n v l n r l t thieu niem tin v i o sU

dd d c c l n h l n kinh doanh ngoai

kinh t l d l y tham vgng, thl vdn tfn

p h l t t r i l n 6n djnh lanh manh cfla

hdi, khi I p dung p h l n tfch ky thuat,

dung van la ngudn ehfnh n h l m tai

thj trudng nay.

hg thudng q u i tU tin v i o k h i nang
trddng

nhan dang xu the s i t i l p tuc x l y

nhan thay thuc trang nay trong giai

Cle NDT t r i n thj trUdng ngoai hdi

Ddi vdi thi trUOng t i l n t f Viet Nam,
nhieu nha dau co t i l n t f cho r i n g

trp cho elc hoat ddng dau tU va
tieu dflng trong n l n kinh te. Cd the

3.2. Anh hudng d i n thi
ngogi hdi

ra - xu t h l eung cd hoac d i o ehilu.

doan trudc nam 2011 khi ma tang

Viet Nam ludn cd tam ly"gifl chat"

trudng tfn dung ludn xap xi 30%,

va ddi khi chiu sUchi phdi bdi tam ly

n i n d n efl vao bien dpng d l i han

bdi thue t l la e l nen kinh t l hau n h u

"lech lac do tinh hudng d i l n hlnh",

trong khi d c NDT lal qua tin vao

ehi "nhin" vao vdn vay t f l elc TCTD.

d i n d i n da so eae NDT, nhat la d c

nhflng sU bien ddng n g l n han.

Khdng nhflng t h l , trong elc giai

NDT td ehflc (chfl y l u la d c n h i xuat

Ngoai ra, tam ly cfla eac NDT trong

doan nen kinh te qude te p h l i ddi

n h l p khau...) thudng mudn gam

nUde thudng cd xu hudng tach

m i t vdi cle cu sdc tai ehinh, ehang

gifl ngoai tf. Nguyin n h l n chinh d l

baeh gifla hai loai t l i khoan lai va 16.

han cac nam 2007-2009 va sau do

g i l i thi'ch tinh trang dau ca gam gifl

Khi ty g i l t i n g va d m thay cd Idi,

la khflng h o i n g n g cdng d EU t f l

ngoai t i cua cle NDT tai Viit Nam

ho s i chap nhan ban ngay de thu

t h i n g 5/2009 va keo d l i cho tdi nay

nhflng nam qua la do khflng h o i n g

lgi n h u l n trong khi neu Id thl xu

TAP CHi NGAN HANG | S 0 1 3 | THANG 7/2016

®

I


l ^ f c T H I TRl/dNG TAI CHINH

hudng chung hp van nam giflvdi ky

dang ngay c i n g manh hon trong

v l thj trudng thl se l o tUdng t h e ^ l

vgng la f)/ g i l se tang trd lai.

nhflng nam gan d l y . NOT trong

cac thdng tin dua ra va tao thanh

3.3. Anh hddng den thi
chdng

trUtmg

khodn

nudc bat d I u chfl trgng vao cle

mgt t i m ly phong trao, thj trudng

ddng thai mua b i n cfla NDT nude

da lien tuc bj day bdi nhflng con

Thj trudng ehflng k h o l n (TTCK)

n g o l i v l chay theo xu hudng do.

sdng ndi tiep nhau. Tat c l d e van

Viet Nam dupe d l n h g i l ia thj trudng

Trong khi ngudn vdn NDT nUdc

de neu tren cho t h l y c l n cd bifn

cfla d c NDT nhd l i hanh ddng theo

ngoai dang ed xu hudng tang tai thj

phap d l ban c h l phy thudc vio

t i m ly d i m ddng, trong do, cac NOT

trudng Viet Nam va nd se n g l y c i n g

nhflng NDT nUdc ngoai, neu khdng,

trong nUdc chi biet nhan thdng tin

chi phdi TTCK thdng qua d c k i n h

TTCK se i l mgt canh bac ma nhiSig

thoi phong, t h i l u nhflng tim hieu

d i u t u vdn. D l y cflng thudc mpt

nhan to chfnh la nhflng NDT nudc

b l sau cua nhflng thdng tin edng

dang chay theo dam ddng nhflng

ngoai. Nhflng bien ddng phflc tap

bd hoac tham k h i o y kien chuyin

NDT chuyin n g h i f p efla NDT trong

khd ludng efla TTCK nudc ta nhflng

gia trong v l ngoai nudc. Vi vly, hp

nude. Ngoai ra, d c NDT nUdc n g o l i

nam qua mdt p h l n cflng do Inh

tham gia thj trudng vdi do rfli ro

chia lam 2 nhdm: mdt nhdm tap

hudng cfla thj trudng nay, nhUng

cao, va chi thay dUOc tam nhln n g l n

trung vao cac c h i l n lUpe dau tU

mat khic, mdt thuc t l la do su lien

ban. Nguge lai, nhflng NOT ngoai cd

trung va dai ban dua t r i n danh mue

thdng gifla TTCK va thi trudng t i l n

c l nhflng nghiep vu va kinh nghiem

dau t u rd r i n g , nhdm khac chi tap

t f eung d l va dang tiep tue anh

hp n h l n t h l y nhflng b i l n dpng t l t

trung d i u tU n g l n ban. Mpt dieu

hudng d i n h i i u lUc efla CSTT.

y l u cfla thj trudng, d i n khi nhan ra

dang lo ngai la sU tang l i n v l sd

thdi d i l m nguy h i l m , sU ndng i i n

lupng cfla nhdm hai va cd vai trd

cfla thj trUOng va lang le ban dan

d i n d l t thj trudng Vift Nam, tham

2. Mpt so khuyen nghj chinh
sach

khdng gay ra tin h i i u thao chay

gia vao lung doan thj trudng v l l l m

Tfl nhflng phan tich ve dac diem

t r i n thj trudng. Trong khi dd, NDT

g i l trong tflng thdi d i l m cfla thj

tam ly NDT tac dpng tdi thj trudng

nudc ngoai ludn gifl mdt ddng thai

trudng v l hp lai la ngUdi nam gifl

tai chfnh tai Vift Nam nhflng nlm

ddc lap va tach rdi khdi tam ly dam

lugng Idn ed phieu d d c mflc g i l

qua cho thay mdt trong nhflng

ddng. Trong nhflng dot thj trudng

khic nhau. Vdi phUong thfle mua

nguyen nhan cfla sU bien ddng cfla

sut giam manh nhutrong giai doan

ban cudn ehieu d tflng mfle g i l , hp

thj trudng tai chfnh Viet Nam nhflng

2009-2010 va h l u nhu khdng co

cd the d i n d l t thj trudng va lam

nam qua la do t i m ly NDT v l chinh

dau hieu gl la dao c h i l u , khdng khf

nao loan thj trudng. Den khi NOT

d i e diem tam ly NDT tren thj trUdng

I m dam Id rd d e l e NDT trong nUdc,

trong nUdc cd the biet dugc cd khdi

tai chfnh. Oieu nay da va dang dat

thi NDT nude ngoai van chiem khdi

lugng b i n ra lam g i l eo p h i l u sut

ra nhflng y i u d u d p t h i l t p h l i tim

lugng giao djeh kha eao (khoang

g i l m thl da mupn va roi vao tinh

d c b i i n phap nham quan ly va gilm

20% t o l n thj trUdng). Hp n l m gifl

trang ban thao vdi mflc g i l r§ ra thj

thieu c l e t i c ddng tieu cue cfla tam

nhfltig ed phieu d mflc gia khic

trudng. Dieu do cho thay NDT trong

ly NDT tdi d c chinh sleh kinh te vT

nhau, mua vao - b i n ra theo kieu

nudc van cdn t h i l u nhay ben, p h l n

m d ndi chung, trong dd dac biet ddi
vdi chfnh sleh t l i chinh.

cudn c h i l u , tao t h l n h mdt dpng

flng va xfl ly thdng tin v l ludn bi

t h l i cd t h l dan d l t thi trudng. Cdn

d l t trong tinh trang bj dpng va de

NDT trong nUdc lai kem nhay ben

roi vao chile bay chi phdi eua NDT

trUdc nhflng thdng tin thj trudng.

nude ngoai.

Mat khac, cac thdng tin n l y h i i n
dupe danh gia la chUa day dfl, v l
nhieu "tin ddn" lam anh hUdng tdi
t i m ly NOT, gay ra sU hoang mang
v l chay theo d i m ddng nhU quan
s i t d mdt vai thdi ky.

Bli viet nay xin dua ra mdt s6
khuyln nghj chinh sach dudi day:
ThCf nha't, hodn thien hdnh tang

to ehflc dau t u

phdp ty vi linh vtfc tdi chinh, bdo ddm

chuyin n g h i f p la nhCTng to ehflc do

stf nhdt tn gida cdc quy dinh phdp

ngudi nude ngoai thanh lap tai Vift

ludt ve tdi chinh

Nam. Con sd v l quy md cfla cle to

khde cd tiin quan

Phan Idn d c

vdi cdc quy dinh

ehflc n l y tuy cdn nhd, nhUng dang

Trong kinh t l thi trudng, p h l p

p h l t trien kha nhanh va hp hoat

l u l t la k h i u trpng yeu bdi qua dd,
giflp Nha nude k i l m s o l t c l e boat

Viic mua - ban cua NOT nUdc

ddng vdi mdt sU lac quan ed ehflng

ngoai ft n h i l u I n h hudng den t i m

mUe. Vi vay, neu NOT trong nUdc

dpng kinh te xa hdi theo dflng trat

ly NOT trong nUdc va xu hUdng n l y

t h i l u nhflng c l i nhln tinh tao hOn

t u dugc kS' vong. Ddi vdi ITnh vUc

^

TAPCHiNGANHANG I S6l3 I THANG7/2016

i


THI TRL/dNG TAI CHINH ^ ^

t l i chfnh, h l n h lang phap ly cang

p h l i thudng x u y i n dieu chinh, sfla

tren nhflng d u b i o ehinh sleh efla

cd vai trd quan trgng dae b i f t , bdi

ddi d c d i l u l u l t ve tai chfnh t i l n t i

Chinh phfl trong tuong lat.

day la ITnh vuc kinh te ed mflc dp rfli

eflng da lam suy g i l m hieu luc cfla

ro t i l m I n rat eao, trong khi do day

he thdng phap luat n l y .

lai cung I I khu vuc y i t hau cua nen
kinh te xa hdl, cho n i n ddi hdi h l n h

Thu" hai, tiip tuc tdng cudng han
ntfa cdc thong diep chinh sdch

Thfl' ba, fdng ctfdng cdng tdc gidm
sdt thi trudng nhdm nhdn diin cdc
xu hudng tdm lyddm ddng dien bien
phtfc tgp cd nguy cO gdy ra cdc diin

lang p h l p luat p h l i ddng bd va

Chinh phfl d n sfl dung mdt d e h

h o l n thien, dieu n l y khdng chi giflp

dong bp va h i f u q u i cae thdng diep

hoat ddng cua he thdng tai chfnh

chfnh sleh eho NDTva xa hdi thdng

thudng xuyen chfl trpng cdng tac

qude gia di dung hudng, t f l d d , thfle

qua viec thiet ke mdt khudn kho d c

giam sat thj trudng va d l kjp thdi

day thUc h i i n tdt d c muc t i i u kinh

g i l i p h l p d l x l y dung d c ndi dung

nhan dien d c xu hUdng d i u eo

t l xa hpi ma Chinh phfl hoach djnh,

thdng diep, chia s i va theo doi d c

thao tung tren d c thj trudng chflng

ma nd cdn giflp giam t h i l u nhflng

p h l n flng v l ele thdng diep chfnh

k h o l n , vang, ngoai tf, bat ddng s i n

rfli ro von ludn tiem an trong he

sleh m l Chinh phu dUa ra. D i l u

... va da dUa ra cac b i f n p h l p ddi

thdng tai ehinh. Tuy vay, do b i n

nay ddi hdi Chfnh phfl can cd mpt

trgng tham chi thdng qua d c b i i n

than h f thdng tai chfnh cd pham vi

dpi ngu ehuyen gia ehuyen n g h i f p

p h l p hanh chinh manh tay n h l m

I n h hudng rat rpng, lien quan den

trong ITnh vUc tai ehinh t i l n t i 6i ed

xfl ly d c hanh vi vi pham p h l p l u l t ,

tat c l d c hoat dgng kinh t l - xa

the van hanh tdt khudn khd nay.

tuy vay, nhflng d i l n b i l n tren thj

bien xdu tren thi trudng tdi chlnh
Nhflng

nam

qua, Chfnh

phfl

hgi nen vifc hoan t h i i n hanh Iang

C l n hlnh thanh eac kenh l i i n lac

p h l p I;? ddi vdi ITnh vuc hoat dgng

k h i e nhau 6e Chfnh phfl cd the

khd ludng xuat p h l t t f l tinh chat da

nay i l vd cflng khd khan, phflc tap,

nam b i t dugc tam 1^ NDT tai cac

dang trong t i m ly d c NDT, dac b i i t

ddi hdi p h l i dugc xfl ly mpt clch bai

thdi diem khac nhau, d l nghe p h l n

tfl eac NDT ed td chfle qudc te gan

b i n , khan truong, cd djnh hudng va

flng cfla hp ve hoat ddng dieu hanh

vdi d c phuong t i f n va cdng cu dau

theo t r i t t u Uu t i i n . Xet v l nguyen

ehfnh sich tai chinh cfla Chinh phfl;

t u mdi, dan d i n ed khdng ft cac dien

ly thi do ITnh vUc tai ehfnh ed t i m

t i l n h l n h thudng xuyen d c cude

bien t r i n thi trUdng tai chinh d c

quan trgng d i e bift, cd pham vi I n h

dieu tra, k h i o s i t de ed the thu

nha chfle t r i c h d l chua n h l n d i f n

hudffig r l t rdng k h l p nen can p h l i

thap va p h l n I n h kjp thdi sU thay

kjp thdi va bi ddng trong flng phd.

dugc Uu tien, trong khi cac h f thdng

doi trong t i m ly cfla NDT v l d c doi

Su bj dgng it nhieu cflng k h i l n ele

phap l u l t khac cd d c d i l u khoan

tugng khac trudc nhflng chinh sleh

hoat ddng ean t h i f p gay sde cho thj

lien quan d i n t l i chfnh thl p h l i tuan

t l i ehinh t i l n t f dugc thuc thi.

trudng cflng nhU phf tdn can t h i i p

trudng tai chinh ludn rat phflc tap,

thfl d c quy djnh trong elc van ban

Ben canh dd, Chinh phfl cd sU

phap luat chuyen nganh tai chfnh.

cdng khai kip thdi, minh bach hon

de xuat thdi gian tdi Chfnh phfl tiep

Mudn n h u v l y , c l c ^ e u khoan trong

v l thdng tin kinh te xa hdi, d i e b i f t

tue tang cudng hon nfla edng t i c

cle van b i n p h l p l u l t ve tai chfnh

la he thdng thdng tin tai chfnh t i l n

g i l m s i t thj trudng tai chfnh g i n vdi

p h l i cd su chuan mUc n h l t djnh,

t f . Cac thdng tin tren website cfla

nang cao trinh dp n l n g lUc cfla ddi

tren co sd do, t i l n hanh ra soat lai

Chfnh phfl cdn t h i l u d e thdng tin

ngfl d n bd g i l m s i t v l hien dai hda

ele d i l u khoan cd l i i n quan trong

d n t h i l t mang tinh thdng diep

ha tang ky thuat cdng nghf, nhat la

h i thdng d c van ban luat khie, bao

chfnh sach cfla co quan quan ly de

flng dung d c phan mem q u i n 1;^ thj

d i m cd su n h l t tri d l khdng d n trd,

cle NDT ed the tham k h i o . Thdng

trudng, qua do, gdp phan nang eao

t h i m chi lam mat h i i u luc d c quy

qua v i i c cdng khai nay, d c NOT

hon nfla chat lupng eua edng t i e

djnh phap l u l t v l tai chinh. Trong

hoac cdng chflng quan t i m cd the

d u bao. Trong dieu kien thj trudng

bdi c l n h hdi n h l p sau ve tai chinh

hieu rd each t i l p can, p h l n tich va

tai ehinh cd sU hdi n h l p rat sau nhu

gia tang. Tfl thUe t l nay, chflng tdi

NH, d c hoat ddng tai chfnh xuyen

quan d i l m cua elc n h i d i l u hanh

hien nay g i n vdi cude d e h mang

bien gidi, thl d e quy djnh phap luat

chfnh sleh ve dieu k i i n kinh te t l i

edng nghe thdng tin thl d c rao c l n

ve tai chfnh tien te cflng can cd tam

ehfnh trong nudc, thj truOng tai

ky thuat se bj suy giam, tham chi bj

nhln xa, b i o d i m r i n g eac quy ^ n h

chfnh the gidi v l v i i c xem xet d c

mat t i e dung kiem s o l t thj trudng,

p h l p ly ve ITnh vUc nay khdng bj sfla

chfnh sleh kinh te tai ehfnh trong

do vay, d c d u b i o se la co sd tdt cho

doi t h u d n g x u y i n , bdi chfnh vifc

nudc, t f l dd dua ra quyet djnh dua

eac nha chfle t r i c h ra d c quyet dinh

TAP CHi NGAN HANG | 5013 | THANG 7/2016

@

]


) T H | TRUdNG TAI CHiNH

kjp thdi, dung iieu lupng va khdng

Van d l t u do hda tai k h o l n vang

g l y sdc cho thj trudng thdng qua ky

lai v l tai khoan vdn efla V i f t Nam

thuat can t h i i p hgp ly.

da dugc d l t ra mgt so nam trudc

Thuf t u , tang cudng ndng Itfc tfng
pho vdi cdc dien biin thi trudng
G i n vdi hgi nhap tai chinh thl

d l y , tuy vay, da cd k h i n h i l u y k i l n
khae nhau ve van d l nay bdi g i n
vdi vife t u do hda t l i k h o l n vdn se

cle nguy ca gay bat dn thj trudng

de g l y ra elc h i q u i khdng mong

ludn thudng trUc, han nfla, t f l d e

dgi c l v l kinh te xa hdi. Tuy vly, viec

cudc khflng h o i n g tai chfnh nhflng

t u do hda tai k h o l n vdn I I mdt y i u

n l m qua cho t h l y rang cac cfl sde

cau tat yeu gan vdi hdl n h l p kinh te

t l i chfnh qudc t l ed xu hudng n g l y

quoe t l . Xuat phat t f l dd, chung tdi

cang "dam d i e " hon bdi d c hoat

cho r i n g vifc x l y dung Id trinh tU

ddng d i u tu"gay nhieu thj trudng"

do tai k h o l n vdn efla Vift Nam d n

nham true Igi cfla d c NDT to chfle

dugc d n nhac tren eg sd xem xet

cd t i m cO qude t l . Cac cfl sdc g i n

d c rfli ro riing l i v l rfli ro tai chinh

day tham chi da gay ra nhflng t h i f t

mang tinh he thong, song song vdi

hai rat Idn v l tai chfnh l l n uy tin

vifc n l n g eao nang luc t h l c h l v l

qudc gia. Cac qudc gia cang yeu

efla nen kinh te n h l m flng phd vdi

kem trong viec n h l n d i i n cac xu

d c rfli ro nly. Mpt khudn khd giam

hudng d i u eo thao tflng qudc te

sat va luat if dUpc thiet ke tdt v l

thl nhflng t h i f t hai d n g Idn do can

thuc thi ed h i i u qua se giflp g i l m

thiep t h i l u kjp thdi v l khdng dflng

mgt phan nhflng sai lech v l eo e l u

each, thieu su hd trg cfla qudc te.

ddng tien va sai lech v l thdi ban,

Tfl thuc t l nly, chflng tdi dua ra de

nhung nhflng sai l f c h nay chi ed the

xuat Chfnh phfl can nang eao nang

g i l m dang ke khi cd mdt thi trudng

luc flng phd vdi cae dien bien t i m ly

trai phieu dai han trong nude hoat

NDT tren thj trUdng tai ehfnh thdng

ddng tdt v l d c cdng cu b i o hiem

qua: (i) Tang cudng sU phdi k i t hpp

rfli ro e l p eao p h l t trien hoan ehinh.

vdi d c djnh che tai chinh qudc t l
trong d u bao cung n h u can thiep
thi trudng tai chfnh. Mpt sU phoi
k i t hgp h i f u q u i gifla thj trudng

tai chfnh trong nude va qude te se
giflp ngan chan tdt hon d c dien
b i l n d i u CO qudc te; (ii) h o l n t h i f n
hanh lang phap ly g i n vdi bd sung,
hoan t h i f n ele ky t h u l t can t h i i p
thj trudng n h l m ean thiep dflng
thdi d i l m , dflng lieu lUpng, t r i n
n l n tang p h l p l u l t manh; (iii) t i n g
eudng thue lUc t l i chfnh de s i n
sing can t h i f p vdi nhflng l i l u lugng
dfl manh de ddi trpng vdi d c hoat
dgng dau co thao tflng thj trudng
nhat I I den t f l nhflng n h i dau t u td
chfle q u d e t l .
Thli" nam, xem xit tUng budc thtfc
hiin tudo hoa tdi khodn von vdo thdi
diim thich hop
O

T i l p tuc p h l t t r i l n thj trudng
trai p h i l u Chfnh phfl dai han g i n
vdi phat t r i l n thj trudng t r i i phieu
edng ty, d i l u n l y s i giup lam g i l m
cle sai lech thdi ban va sai l i c h cP
cau dong tien. Song, vifc phattrien

than va It chil:? din viecfladang hfla danh mn|j
diu tu de hgn ch£ nJi ra
= Vdi tam ly hfii ti6c, con ngflfli cfl xu hi/flnj'
cdm thgy n6i dau hay sil de dpa lilt\6\ tigc V^,

iam sai mijt viec gi So. Do dfl, de tranh phji
nhflngttiatb^i gay ra hSi tigc, con ngdtfi cfl «t
hfldng thay doi hanh vi ciia minh nhflng dieu
nay dfli khi cfl thl dSn den nhflng kit qui kliorg
hop ly
•—
' Hanh vl b9y dan la thu^t ngfl ddngtfge8f
SI/ difiu chinh tUflng thich vfli mOt phfldng thDc
thflc hign va dfldc thl hi@n nhfl la "mflt s^ttftk^;,
dong trong hanh vi ttieo sau cac quan sat tfldngi
tttc' vS hanh (I(ing va ket qud phat stnh tfl ntidry
hanh dflng nay gifla cdc ca nhan.
* can IUu y la t ^ ly d&m dong t^ V@
i t Nam
tdflng chu ygu di/a trln cdc thflng tin phi ctifnh
thing, dieu nay cfl nguyin nhan bdi h| ttiong
thflng tin chinh thfing ciia Vi0t Nam can m
nhieu bit dp.
^ Thuylt nay cho r^ng con ngi/fli bi thiic (%
manh nham tranh sfl mat mat hdn latimIdlm Idi
nhuan. Xu hfldng sd hai mat mat ddl khi iam ttncon ngflfli khflng M loai bfl di nhiing tai sSn t^
chinh khong mang lai Idi nhuan ngay ca ktii hih
nhgn ttil^y ring khfing co ky vong gl ve mflc siih
ldi trong tfldng lai
^ Chang hgn, chlnh sach thue thu nhjp cl
nhan la nham danh vao tlt ca cdc khoin tiiu
nhgp ciia cdc ca nhln song ngu nhu vi$c Hiifc
thi chlnh sach nay lai chu ylu hfldng vao nhfliq I
ngfldi CO thu nhgp trung binh hodc thap tmng
khi nh Jng ngUfli co thu nhgp cao lai it bi chi 0

thi chinh dilu nay da lam mSt hieu IUc cua cliWt
sach thue thu nhgp ca nhan bdi khi dfl nhflng
ngflfli cfl thu nhgp tmng blnh hoUc ttiap se eg
Bnh trfin trinh thug, chay i ngp fliul - mfit iMj
dfl phinflngchinh sdch.
^
' Thuyet nay cho rang cac kinh nghiem, iof
quy tac hoc dfldc thudng giflp HOT ra quylt #ih'
nhanh chflng va de ddng hdn.
M
° cac nghien cflu ch! ra iing trinh dd hflc v ^
cang cao thl quy mfl dau tu tong mfli ldn giao
dich cang Idn, dong thdi, ty II smh Idi trong hc^
dflng dSu tfl cung cSng cao
^
^ Nghien cifti cho thay rSng dg tugi cang cao
thi hi|uflngphln bl tai khoan dSu tfl cang yeu
dong thfli, xu hfldng ho cung ndm giti cac danti
mgc ddu W tai chinh it tap tmng hdn.

cae thj trudng nay ehi k h i thi mdt
khi khung p h l p ly cho s U v I n h l n h
d c loai thi trudng tren day dugc
hoan t h i f n , e l v l d c dieu luat l l n
tfnh k h i thi cfla chflng. Cflng can
lUu y I I di cle thj trudng t r i i phieu
Chfnh phfl va trai phieu cdng ty
p h l t t r i l n thl LS p h l i dUflc tU do
hda va chinh su p h l t trien cfla thj
trudng t r i i phieu Chinh phfl cflng la

n l n t i n g quan trgng d l chflng ta ed
t h l xay dung dugc dudng cong III

TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1. Alexander Kurov (2010): Investor sentiment
and the stock markets reaction to monetaiy
policy Joumal of banking & Finance. Volume
34 Issuel. January. Page 139-149.
2. Amnima Sinha (2016): Monetaiy poli(^
uncertain^ and investor expectation. Joumal i^,
Macroeconomics, Volume 47, Part B March,
Page 188-199.
3. Barberis, N. and Thaler, R. (2001). A
survey of behavioral finance, Retrieved Janui
5, 2004 from
nicholas.barberis/research.
4. NguySn Oflc Hien (2012): Hanh vi ciia nhi
dau tu trln thi tmdng chflng khoan Vigt NamM
Lugn an Tien si kinh ti
hoc Kinh t l Q u i *

s u i t chuan, co sd de t u do hda LS.B
' Vfli loai tam ly niy, NOT thi/flng \\i tin quS
mflc vao tSm lii§u bifl, kinh ngiiiem ciia bin

5. To Kim Ngoc (2012): Gido trinh Tiln tl ngln hdng. NXB Odn Tri.
6. Kim Tiln (2016): Lai suat huy ding b5t
tang tnS lai. www.cafeJ.vn, Ngay 20,6 2016

TAP CHi NGAN HANG | Sd 13 | THANG 7/2016

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