3916
TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN
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LAI VAN DIEU
DAI HOC KTQD
TT. THONG TIN TH If VIEN
PHONG LUAN AN- TV LIEU
DANH GIA VA QUAN LY RUI RO BAO HIEM HOA HOAN CUA CAC
DOANH NGHIEP BAO HIEM PHI NHAN THO VIET NAM
Chuyen nganh: KINH TE BAO HIEM
LUAN VAN THAC SY KINH TE
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Ngirdi hirdng dan khoa hoc! PGS.TS NGUYEN VAN DINH
7HS. 39^
Ha Noi, nam 2009
MUC LUC
DANH MUC CAC CHC VIET TAT
DANH MUC CAC BANG, SO DO
TOM TAT LUAN VAN
MO DAU............................................................................................................................................. 1
CHUONG 1:
CO Sd LY LUAN VE DANH GIA VA QUAN LY RUI RO
BAO HIEM HOA HOAN CUA CAC DOANH NGIIIEP BAO HIEM VIET NAM
1.1 RUI RO BAO HIEM HOA HOAN............................................................................... 4
1.1.1. Khai niem ve hoa hoan va bao hiem hoa hoan........................
4
1.1.2. Rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan ................................................................................................. 4
1.1.3. Thanh ph an cua rui ro........................................................................................................ 7
1.1.4. Nhan dang rui ro................................................................................................................... 8
1.1.5. Do ludng rui ro..................................................................................................................... 8
1.1.6. Kiem soat va tai trp rui ro....................................................................................................9
1.2 DANH GIA RUI RO BAO HIEM HOA HOAN........................................................... 9
1.2.1. Str can thiet khach quan........................................................................................................ 9
1.2.2. Noi dung danh gia.............................................................................................................. 10
1.2.3. Co so danh gia rui ro.............................................................
11
1.2.3.1. He thong tieu chuan v6 nguy co chay, no............................................................... 11
1.2.3.2. Tieu chuan an toan phong chay................................................................................. 14
1.2.3.3. Tieu chuSn ve chua chay............................................................... .-.............................15
1.2.3.4. Yeu to anh hudng den muc do rui ro........................................................................ 19
1.2.4. Phuong phap danh gia rui ro.............................................................................................. 20
1.2.4.1. Tiep nhan, thu thap thong tin ve doi tupng bao hiem............................................... 20
1.2.4.2. Kiem tra hien truong.....................................................................................................21
1.2.4.3. Lay y kien chuyen gia...........................................................
21
1.2.4.4. Do ludng rui ro............................................................................................................ 21
1.2.4.5. Bao cao danh gia rui ro............................................................................................... 23
1.3. QUAN LY RUI RO BAO HIEM HOA HOAN......................................................... 24
1.3.1. Nhan there chung ............................................................................................................... ..24
1.3.2. Quy trinh quan lyruiro.................................................................................................... 24
1.4.D0N BAO HIEM HOA HOAN.................................................................................. 26
1. 4. 1. Khai qaat su ra dbi va phat trien bao hiem hoa hoan.....................................................26
1.4.2. Noi dang chmh cua doh bno hiem hoa hoan.................................................................. 27
CHUONG 2 :
THUC TRANG CONG TAC DANH GIA VA QUAN LY RUI RA
bao hiem hoa hoan cua cac doanh nghiep bao hiem viet nam
2.1. HOA HONN VA BAO HIEM HOA HONN 6 VIET NAIM........................................31
2 .1.1. Tinh hinh hoa hoan 6 Viet Nam..................................................................................... 11
2 .1.2 . Trien khai bno hiem hoa hoan 6 Viet Nam................................................................... 37
2.1.2.1. Su ra doi cua nghiep vu bno hiem hoa hoan............................................................ 37
2.1.2.2. Ket qan trien khai bno hiem hoa hoan 6 Viet Nam............................................. 38
2.2. DANH GIA RUI RO BAO
HiEm hOa HONN 6 VIET NAM............................... 41
2.2 .1 . Tiea chaan su dung trong danh gia rui ro........................................................................ 41
2.2.1.1. Danh muc doi luong theo cac muc do ngay co chay............................................... 41
2.2 .1 .2 . Kha vuc dia ban va ngay co chay no......................................................................... 43
2.2 .1 .3 . Phan chia don vi rui ro va cum rui ro........................................................................ 43
2.2.1.4. Ngay co ben trong va ngay co ben ngoai................................................................. 44
2.2 .1 .5 . Tiea chadn phong chay chua chay............................................................................. 44
2.2.1.6. Nang luc tai chlnh....................................................................................................... 45
2.2 .1 .7 . Du bao rui ro................................................................................................................. 46
2.2.2 . Phuong phap danh gia rui ro bno hiem hoa hoan........................................................... 46
2.2.2.1. Giay yea can bno hiem................................................................................................ 46
2.2.2.2 . Phieu diea tra rui ro..................................................................................................... 47
2.2.2.3 . Bao cao danh gia rui ro................................................................................................88
2.2.2.4 . Qay trinh danh gia rui ro............................................................................................ 49
2.2.3 . Nhan xet chung................................................................................................................... 52
2.2.3.1 . Ua didm........................................................................................................................ 52
2.2.3.2 . Hanche........................................................................................................................ 53
2.3 . THUC TRNNG QUAN LY RUI RO BAO HlEM HOA HONN 6 VI$T NAM 54
2.3 .1 . Tieu chhan quan 1v rm ro.....................................................................
54
2.3 .1.1. Tiea chann ginm tan so rui ro.................................................................................... 54
2.3.1 .2 . Tiea cl'ninn ginm thiea ton that................................................................................. 55
2.3.1.3. Tieu chuan xu ly rui ro............................................................................................... 55
2.3.2. Phuomg phap quan ly rui ro...................................................
55
2.3.2.1. Quy trinh quan ly rui ro.............................................................................................. 55
2.3.2.2. Theo doi nguy co rui ro.............................................................................................. 57
2.3.2.3. Giam sat tai san bao hiem.......................................................................................... 57
2.3.2.4. Phuong phap phoi hop............................................................................................... 57
2.3.3. Nhan xet............................................................................................................................... 57
2.3.3.1. Uu diem........................................................................................................................ 57
2.3.3.2. Nhuqc diem.................................................................................................................. 58
2.4. MOT SO VI DU MINH HOA......................................................................................61
2.4.1. Bao hiem khach san Ha long Plaza.................................................................................. 61
2.4.2. Bao hiem hoa hoan tai cong ty Hoa chat mo TKV......................................................... 65
CHUONG 3:
GIAI PHAP HOAN THIEN CONG TAC DANH GIA VA QUAN LY
RUI RO BII HOA HOAN CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP BAO HIEM VIET NAM
3.1. YEU CAU VA PHUONG HUONG HOAN THIEN.................................................. 68
3.1.1. Yeu cAu................................................................................................................................. 68
3.1.2. Phuong hudng hoan thien................................................................................................... 68
3.2. GIAI PHAP HOAN THIEN......................................................................................... 69
3.2.1. Ve cong tac danh gia rui ro................................................................................................ 69
3.2.1.1. Xac dinh ro tieu chuan danh gia................................................................................. 69
3.2.1.2. Thue hien do ludng rui ro............................................................................................ 75
3.2.2. Ve cong tac quan ly rui ro................................................................................................. 91
3.2.2.1. Doi mdi quan diem ve quan ly rui ro........................................................................ 91
3.2.2.2. Chuan hoa quy trinh quan ly rui ro............................................................................91
3.2.2.3. Xay dung bo tieu chuan danh gia va quan ly rui ro............................................... 100
3.2.2.4. Ho so rui ro................................................................................................................ 104
3.3. MOT SO Dfi XU AT................................................................................................... 104
3.3.1. Hoan thien chuong trinh phSn mem thong ke............................................................... 105
3.3.2. Thue hien do ludng dinh luqng va du bao thong ke................................................... 105
3.3.2.1. Phuong phap hoi quy.......... ..................................................................................... 105
3.3.2.2. Phuong phap dung he so.......................................................................................... 106
3.3.2.3. Phuong phap phan tlch so sanh...................................................................................107
3.3.2.4. Phuong phap ma tran cap do rui ro........................................................................... 107
3.3.3. Xac dinh ro cac tieu chu^n danh gia................................................................................ 108
3.3.4. Ddu tu cho cong tac danh gia va quan ly rui ro.............................................................. 109
3.3.5. Dao tao doi ngu can bo........................................................................................................ 109
KET LU AN..................................................................................................................................110
DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
PHU LUC 1
PHU LUC 2
PHU LUC 3
PHU LUC 4
DANH MUC CAC CHO VIET TAT
AAA:
Cong ty co phan bao hiem AAA
ACE Insurance:
Cong ty TNHH bao hiem ACE
AIG Viet Nam:
Cong ty TNHH Bao hiem phi nhSn tho Viet Nam
Bao Long :
Cong ty co phan Bao hiem Nha Rdng
Bao Minh:
Tong cong ty co phan Bao Minh
Bao Ngan:
Cong ty TNHH mot thanh vien Bao hiem Ngan hang
thuong mai co phan cong thirong Viet Nam
Bao Nong:
Cong ty c6 phan bao hiem Ngan hang Nong nghiep
va phat then nong thon Viet Nam
Bao Tin:
Cong ty co phan bao hiem Bao Tin
BHHH:
Bao hiem hoa hoan
Bao Viet:
Tong cong ty bao hiem Bao Viet
BIC:
Cong ty Bao hiem Ngan hang Dau tu va phat trien
Viet Nam
DGRR:
Danh gia rui ro
DNBH:
Doanh nghiep bao hiem
PCCC:
Phong chay chua chay
PJICO:
Cong ty co phan bao hiem Petrolimex
PVI:
Tong cong ty co phan bao hiem dau khf Viet Nam
PTI:
Cong ty co phan Bao hiem Bun dien
QBE:
Cong ty TNHH QBE Viet Nam
QLRR:
Quan ly rui ro
RRHH:
Rui ro hoa hoan
Samsung Vina:
Cong ty lien doanh TNHH Bao hiem Samsung-Vina
Toan cau:
Cong ty co phdn bao hiem Toan Cau
VIA:
Cong ty lien doanh Bao hiem Quoc te Viet Nam
Vi£n Dong:
Cong ty co phdn bao hiem Vi£n Dong
DANH MUC CAC BANG
So hieu bang
Ten bang
Trang
1.1
Khoang each nho nhat tir ring nude den cong trinh
17
1.2
Luorng nude chua chay nhieu nha't tinh cho mat do chay
18
1.3
Bo tri cong suat binh chua chay vdi moi nguy hiem loai A
19
1.4
Bo tri cong suat binh chua chay vdi moi nguy hiem loai B&C
19
1.5
Thang do nguy co cua rui ro
22
1.6
Thang do tan so cua rui ro
22
1.7
Sap xep thii tu uu tien cho cac rui ro
22
2.1
Tinh hinh hoa hoan va mire do thiet hai do hoa hoan gSy ra 6
31
khu vuc dan su Viet Nam (2001-2008)
2.2
Tinh hinh chay va thiet hai tren cac dia ban va khu vuc kinh
34
te
2.3
So vu hoa hoan 6 5 thanh pho Ion Viet Nam (2002-2007)
35
2.4
Nguyen nhan chay trong khu vuc dan su 6 Viet Nam (2001-
36
2008)
2.5
Doanh thu va boi thuring nghiep vu bao hiSm hoa hoan va
39
cac rui ro dac biet (2003-2008)
3.1
Bang phat hien va do luring rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan
77
3.2
He so nguy co chay cua ca nude
80
3.3
Hau qua quan ly rui ro nghiep vu bao hiem hoa hoan va cac
84
rui ro dac biet (2003-2008)
3.4
Kiem soat nguy co hoa hoan theo nguyen nhan
85
3.5
Do kha nang xay ra (xac suat hoa hoan)
94
3.6
Do hau qua ton that
94
3.7
Ma tran cap do rui ro 3x3
95
3.8
Thuric do dinh tinh doi vdi kha nang xay ra rui ro
95
3.9
Thudc do dinh tinh doi vrii hau qua
95
3.10
Ma tran cap do rui ro 5x5
96
3.11
Cap do rui ro vrii yeu cau quan ly
96
DANH MUC CAC SO DO
So hieu so do
Ten so do
Trang
1.1
He thong thong tin lien lac bao chay
16
2.1
Quy trinh danh gia rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan
50
2.2
Mo hinh quan ly rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan
56
3.3
Quy trinh quan ly rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan
92
TRlfONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN
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LAI VAN DIEU
DANH GIA VA QUAN LY RUI RO BAO HIEM HOA HOAN CUA CAC
DOANH NGHIEP BAO HIEM PHI NHAN THO VIET NAM
Chuyen nganh: KINH TE BAO HIEM
TOM TAT LUAN VAN THAC SY KINH TE
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Ha Noi, nam 2009
Md DAU
MOi nam ca nudc xay ra tren hai nghin vu chay; gay thiet hai tai san hang
tram ty dOng. Hoa hoan de doa nghiem trong den hoat dong san xuat kinh doanh cua
cac doanh nghiep cung nhu sinh hoat binh thudng cua ngudi dan. Th yeu cau phat
trien kinh te dat nudc va nham gop phan on dinh cuoc song cua cong dong, hao
hiem hoa hoan ra ddi o nudc ta la mot tat yeu khach quan.
Qua 20 nam trien khai bao hiem hoa hoan, cac doanh nghiep bao hiem Viet
Nam da dat duoc nhung thanh tuu to ldn vdi tam quan he quoc te rong rai. Theo do
cung nhan thay nhung mat han che ve cong tac danh gia va quan ly rui ro doi vdi
nghiep vu nay. Xuat phat th nhung van de neu tren, Tac gia quyet dinh chon de tai:
“Danh gia va quan ly rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan cua cac doanh nghiep bao hiem
phi nhan tho Viet Nam” de nghien chu.
Luan van gidi han nghien chu trong pham vi sau: Cac co so ly luan lien quan
den rui ro hoa hoan va mot so' ly thuyet can ban ve chay, no, set. Tinh hinh hoa hoan
cua ca nudc va trien khai nghiep vu bao hiem cua cac doanh nghiep bao hiem Viet
Nam. Nhung uu diem va han che' ve cong tac danh gia va quan ly rui ro bao hiem
hoa hoan hien nay. Giai phap hoan thien va mot so' vi du minh hoa.
Phuong phap nghien cull la: Phuong phap luan duy vat bien chhng cua chu
nghia duy vat lich su. Cac van de ly luan va thuc tien theo quan diem toan dien, phat
trien va lich su cu the. Phuong phap phan tfch thong ke; phuong phap toan hoc; lay y
kien chuyen gia va phuong phap du bao.
Luan van ket cau gom 3 chuong va tieu de thng chuong nhu sau:
Chuong 1: Co so ly luan ve danh gia va quan ly rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan cua cac
doanh nghiep bao hiem Viet Nam.
Chuong 2: Thuc trang cong tac danh gia va quan ly rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan cua
cac doanh nghiep bao hiem Viet Nam.
Chuong 3: Giai phap hoan thien cOng tac danh gia va quan ly rui ro bao hiem hoa
hoan cua cac doanh nghiep bao hiem Viet Nam.
ii
Chuong 1
9.
Z
/s
Z
Z
x
9
z
9
co SO LY LUAN VE DANH GIA VA QUAN LY RUI RO
BAO HIEM HOA HOAN CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP bAo HIEM VIET NAM
1.1. RUI RO BAO HIEM HOA HOAN
Ngudi ta thudng dong nhat hoa hoan la chay gay hai. Theo Dieu 3 khoan 1
Luat phong Chay va chua chay nam 2001,“ Chay duac hieu la truting hap xay ra
chay khong kiem soat ditac co the gay thiet hai ve ngutii, tai san va anh hitting
den moi fritting” Nhu' vay, khai niem “ Hoa hoan” da dupc dinh nghia, chung toi
hoan toan nhat tri vdi khai niem ve hoa hoan nhu da neu d tren.
Bao hiem hoa hoan la nghiep vu bao hiem thiet hai tai san do chay phat sinh th
cac dieu kien chay dupc bao hiem; No hoi dot, noi hoi phuc vu sinh hoat va Set. Don
BHHH, bao hiem cho ton tha't ve tai san trong cac trudng hpp sau: Do chay th cac
nguyen nhan dupc bao hiem, bao gom ca no va set. Do khoi va cac hoat dong ngan
ngha nham han che ton that. Do manh vd cua noi hoi, hoi dot phuc vu sinh hoat ban
ra. Do set danh thang lam do, vd.
Rui ro hoa hoan gom 4 thanh phan la: Hiem hoa, nguon rui ro, cac nhan to
thay doi va hau qua. De nhan dang rui ro hoa hoan ngudi ta liet ke nhung moi nguy
hiem co the dan den chay, no, set; bao gdm: chat chay va ngudn nhiet, ap suat noi
hoi, cac tieu chuan chong set. Nhung thay doi co the dan tdi nguy co hoa hoan va
hau qua du bao ve ton that xay ra vdi doi tupng bao hiem.
Bao cao danh gia rui ro xac dinh ro muc do nguy co cua thng loai rui ro bao
hiem va muc do ton tha't ldn nhat co the xay ra vdi doi tupng bao hiem. Mot so
phuong phap do ludng rui ro thudng dupc sh dung la thang do anh hudng, thang do
tan sd', sap xep cac thu tu uu tien rui ro, udc lupng tan so rui ro, udc lupng muc do
ton that va cac hinh thuc du bao. Cac bien phap kiem soat rui ro thudng la th choi
nhan bao hiem; tac dong vao nguyen nhan khien cho rui ro khong the xay ra hoac
bang nhung hanh dong han che thiet hai do hoa hoan gay ra. Co hai nhom bien phap
co ban de tai trp rui ro la: Ch^jp nhan rui ro hoac chia se rui ro.
1.2. DANH GIA RUI RO BAO IIIEM HOA HOAN
Danh gia rui ro bao gom: Nhan-dang moi nguy hiem va nguy co dan den
chay, no, set. Do ludng muc do ton that ldn nhat co the xay ra. Phan tich, danh gia
va dua ra cac giai phap xir ly. DGRR phai lam rd: Nhung vat chat nao, ngudn nhiet
nao co the gay nguy hiem chay, n6,\ahung cong trinh kho tang co the bi set danh;
cac hoat dong hoac su thay doi dan den nguy co hoa hoan va cac khuyen nghi.
Cac tieu chuan danh gia rui ro' gdm co: Tieu chuan ve nguy co chay; tieu
chuan an toan phong chay; tieu chuan chua chay va cac yeu to anh huong den muc
do rui ro.
Quy trinh danh gia rui ro bat dau tir khi tiep nhan thong tin ve doi tupng bao
hiem. Thong tin co the thu nhan bang nhidu each nhir yeu cau khach hang cung cap;
den hien trudng quan sat, dieu tra hoac tir cac ngudn khac. Bao cao DGRR la ban
tong hop thong tin va do ludng ve nguy co rui ro; muc do ton that va nhung khuyen
nghi. Doi vdi nhung rui ro co tinh chat dac biet, gia tri bao hiem ldn, doi tupng bao
hiem dac thu co the mbi chuyen gia danh gia va tu van.
1.3. QUAN LY RUI RO BAO HIEM IIOA IIOAN
Quy trinh quan ly rui ro gom 4 budc; cu the la:
Budd: Nhan dang rui ro la qua trinh phat hien cac moi nguy hiem dong thdi
chi ro ngudn goc cua riii ro, xac dinh vung hoat dong va muc do anh huong tdi doi
tupng bao hiem.
Budc2: Do ludng rui ro ro bao gom; do ludng xac suat cua rui ro; muc do ton
that va gia tri thuc cua riii ro.
Budc3: Kiem soat rui ro nham giam thieu chi phi va ton that. Ne tranh vdi doi
tupng co nguy co rui ro cao; sir dung cac ky thuat lam giam moi nguy hiem, giam
nguy co hoac chuyen giao riii ro. Quan tarn kiem soat chat che va duy tri b muc cd
the chap nhan dupe doi vdi rui ro luu giir.
Budc4: Tai trp rui ro la thiet lap quy ddn bii ton that; sir dung ngudn tin dung
ben ngoai; tu bao hiem; tai bao hiem hoac coi nhu mot loai chi phi nao do trong
kinh doanh.
iv
1.4. DON BAO HIEM HOA HOAN
Don bao hiem tieu chuan la co sb cho loai hinh bao hiem tai san dudi bat ky
hinh thuc nao. Trong suot nhieu nam, cac dieu khoan nay duoc bo sung mb rong, vi
vay, cho den gdn day nhibu DNBH van goi cac don BHIIH la Don bao hiem hoa
hoan va cac rui ro dac biSt.
Nam 1989 Bao Viet trien khai bao hiem hoa hoan theo quyet dinh so 06/TCQD
ngay 17/11/1989 cua Bo trubng Bo tai Chinh. Nam 1990 co 16 cong ty va nam 2008
da co 26 cong ty va Tong cong ty duoc cap giay phep trien khai nghiep vu nay.
Chiromg 2
THUC TRANG CONG TAC DANH GIA VA QUAN LY RUI RO
BAO HIEM HOA HOAN CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP BAO HIEM VIET NAM
2.1. HOA HOAN VA BAO IIIEM IIOA HOAN 6 VIET NAM
Mbi nam ca nude xay ra gan 1.651vu chay vdi tong thiet hai tai san binh quan
380.793 trieu dbng. Tang trubng kinh te va tang dan sb, sb vu hoa hoan va ton that
do hoa hoan cung tang theo. Hien tupng nay cho thay toe do tang trubng GDP va toe
do tang dan sb co moi quan he chat che vdi toe do tang sb vu hoa hoan va thiet hai
do no gay ra.
Khu vuc thanh thi co muc do rui- ro hoa hoan cao va ton that mbi vu rat ldn. So
vu hoa hoan xay ra vdi nha dan cao nhung ton that cua mbi vu thhp; kinh te tu nhan
co muc do rui ro cao ca vS sb vu va ton that; khu vuc lien doanh va nudc ngoai muc
ton that mbi vu rat cao. Kinh te Nha nudc va tap the so vu hoa hoan thap, ty le so vu
la 10% va 20% vdi ton that tuong ting chiem 7% va 1,7% so vdi ca nudc.
Rieng 5 thanh pho ldn cua nudc ta so vu chay xay ra rat cao so vdi cac tinh
thanh khac. TP Ho Chi Minh chiem 19,89%, Ha Nbi 10,76% so vdi tong so vu chay
ca nudc. Trong 7 nam (2001-2007) so vu chay ldn chiem 1,1% nhung thiet hai tai
san chiem tdi 59,7% so vdi ca nudc; binh quan ton that lvu chay la 11.281 trieu
dbng. Sb vu nd binh quan 16 vu/nam, trung binh ton that 1 vu khoang 31,5 trieu
dbng. Hoa hoa xay ra b nude ta do nhieu nguyen nhan, nhung mot so nguyen nhan
V
chu yeu phai ke den la: Do so suat su dung lira 17,58%; so suat sir dung xang dau,
khi dot 11,28%; su co dien, thiet bi dien 34,97%; dot 4,25%; vi pham cac quy dinh
PCCC 10,71%; nguyen nhan khac 10,89%; dang dieu tra 10,31%.
Ty le so vu hoa hoan theo dia ban, khu vuc kinh te, quy mo ton that va nguyen
nhan xay ra la ty le binh quan on dinh trong nhidu nam goi la tan suat, vdi miu du
ldn co the coi nhu la xac suat rui ro hoa hoan. Dtra vao tan xuat co the xay dung
dupc he so rui ro hoa hoan, de du bao cho ngan han va phuc vu cho cong tac danh
gia va quan ly rui ro.
He thong cac DNBII d Viet Nam ra ddi muon do lac hau xa hoi va cham phat
trien kinh te. Nam 1965 Chinh Phu da ra quyet dinh so 179/CP ngay 17/12/1965,
thanh lap cong ty bao hiem Viet Nam (goi tat la Bao Viet) true thuoc Bo Tai Chinh.
Bao hiem chay bat dau dupc thuc hien tir cuo'i nam 1989 sau khi co quyet dinh so
06/TCQD, ngay 17/11/1989 cua Bo trudng Bo Tai Chinh ban hanh quy tac va bieu
phi bao hiem chay va cac rui ro dac biet. Luat kinh doanh bao hiem (cd hieu lire tir
ngay 01/4/2001) quy dinh bao hiem chay dupc trien khai dudi hinh there bat buoc.
Quan ly rui ro the hien rat ro trong moi quan he vdi tai bao hiem. DNBII chi
luu giu mot phan rui ro theo kha nang cho phep. Phi thuc thu la phan doanh thu
chap nhan rui ro luu gitr bang boi thudng thuc chi. Bang hoat dong nhupng tai bao
hiem cac DNBH Viet Nam da ha ty le boi thudng xuong thap hon 1,43% so vdi ty le
bdi thudng bao hiem go'c. Boi thudng thuc chi nhin chung tang theo doanh thu phi
va ty le nay dao dong theo chu ky tangjpam giua cac nam.
Xu the tai bao hiem ra nude ngoai rat ldn, chiem khoang 50% phi bao hiem
goc. Dieu nay da noi len mot thuc te la cac DNBH Viet Nam vAn con han che vd
trinh do nghiep vu va tiem luc tai chinh, le thuoc nhieu vao ntrdc ngoai.
Nhu vay; Bao hiem hoa hoan la nghiep vu cd toe do phat trien nhanh; chiem
ty trong ldn v£ doanh thu so vdi cac nghiep vu khac. Ty le bdi thudng tren doanh thu
phi cac nam tuong ddi on dinh; dieu nay cd the nhan dinh bdi thudng bao hiem hoa
hoan cd moi quan he chat che vdi doanh thu phi bao hiem .
2.4. DANH GIA RUI RO BAO HIEM HOA HOAN 6 VIET NAM.
Khai quat he thong tieu chuan danh gia rui ro BHHH ma cac DNBH phi nhan
tho Viet Nam dang sir dung theo cac nhom tieu chi sau day:
- Danh muc doi tuqng theo muc do nguy co chay, gom cac co set co nguy co
chay thap; trung binh va cao
- O mdi dia ban hoac khu vtre kinh te co mifc do nguy co chay, no khac nhau.
- Mdi don vi rui ro co mifc do ton that khac nhau.
- Doi tuqng bao hiem co the phat sinh rui ro ngay tir ben trong; do la nguy co
v&t chat va nguy co tinh than.
- Tieu chuan phong chay va chua chay.
- Nang luc tai chfnh va kha nang quan ly riii ro cua cac DNBH.
- Du bao rui ro.
Phuong phap danh gia rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan duqc thuc hien theo 5 budc:
DiSu tra thong tin; danh gia rui ro; ra quyet dinh; tinh phi va cac bien phap de phong
han che ton that. Phuong phap danh gia RRHH chiu anh huong chu quan cua ngudi
danh gia. Can ctr lam co sd danh gia rui ro cua cac DNBH nhin chung la giong nhau
vi deu dua tren cac tieu chuan chung ve chay, no, set do co quan nha nude cd tham
quyen ban hanh.
2.5. THUC TRANG QUAN LY RUI RO BAO HIEM HOA HOAN 6 VIET NAM
M[ot so tieu chuan quan ly ma cac doanh nghiep bao hiem dang thuc hien:
- Tieu chuan giam tdn sd rui ro doi vdi cac co sd cd nguy co rui ro trung binh
va cao.
- Giam thieu ton that bang each chia nhd rui ro, giam yeu to lam tang ton that,
dau tu cong cu phtrong tien phat hien chay va chua chay.
- Xu ly rui ro bang each tai trq rui; phan tan rui ro; hoac bao hiem dudi gia tri.
Phuong phap quan ly rui ro duqc thuc hien theo mot quy trinh; trong do DGRR
la co sd cua chuong trinh quan ly rui ro. Vi nguy co riii ro luon thay doi; chung ta
khong cd du ngudn luc de quan ly tat ca nen doi tuqng quan ly luon phai linh hoat.
vii
Thu'dng xuyen theo doi nguy co, giam sat chat che tai san bao hiem danh gia lai rui
ro; xSp xep thu tu uu tien va phoi hop that tot trong quan ly rui ro.
Chuong 3
giai phap hoan thien cong tac danh gia va
_
7
7_
X
A?
7
7
7
X
X
quan ly rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan cua cac dnbh viet nam
3.1. YEU CAU VA PHUONG HUdNG HOAN THIEN
Hoan thien tren co so ke thira va lam ro nguyen nhan cua nhung han che, thieu
sot va tim ra giai phap khac phuc. Phai dap ung duoc thuc te ma hoat dong kinh
doanh dat ra va phu hop vdi xu the phat trien cua nghiep vu.
Hoan thien theo hudng: Phan nhom cac chi tieu, xep chung theo mot thU tu uu
tien. Dua vao cau truc cua rui ro de phat hien nhung hiem hoa; nguy co rui ro. Su
dung mot so phuong phap do ludng nham khac phuc mot phan chu quan trong danh
gia. Dua ra yeu cau hoan thien ve cong tac thong ke. Xay dung chien luoc dao tao;
phat trien doi ngu can bo nghiep vu.
7
x
x
x
3.2. GIAI PHAP HOAN THIEN
Xac dinh ro tieu chuan danh gia theo ket cau nhom yeu to va cac muc do tac
dong uu tien rui ro ti cao den thap:
A. Nhom cac yeu to anh hudng den tan so hoa hoan
l
A.
Didu kien xuat hien su chay duoc danh gia theo 3 muc do: Cao, trung binh,
thap; theo nhom cac nguyen nhan pho bien nhu su dung lua khong dam bao an toan;
su dung dien khong an toan va su dung khi, gas khong an toan.
A.2 Khu vuc dia ly; dia ban rui ro cung co 3 muc do khac nhau theo mien; dia
ban thanh thi va nong thon hoac tinh rieng doi vdi cac thanh pho ldn.
A.3 Theo co so kinh te muc do rui ro cung rat khac nhau do tinh chat hoat dong
va y thuc chap hanh quy dinh phong chay. Phan chia theo hinh thuc so hun co kinh
te Nha nudc; Tap the; kinh te tu nhan; nha dan; lien doanh va 100% von nudc ngoai.
A.4 Nganh nghe kinh doanh, co muc do nguy co theo he thong danh muc, gom
co: Nganh nghe kinh doanh co rui ro cao; trung binh va thap.
viii
A.5 An toan phong chay la yeu to quan trong quy dinh tan so hoa hoan, day la
nhung viec lam thudng xuyen va ca bat buoc theo quy dinh phap luat.
A.6 Nguy co th ben ngoai gom chay no cua don vi, co quan d gan va kha nang
anh hudng cua chay lan; trinh do dan tri, phong tuc tap quan va moi trudng xa hoi d
khu vuc, dia ban noi co sd, doanh nghiep dong.
B. Nhom yeu to anh hudng den muc do nghiem trong cua ton that
Ton that phu thuoc vao gia tri cua mot don vi rui ro hoac cum rui ro va nhu
vay gia tri tai san cang ldn thi kha nang thiet hai cang nghiem trong. Phat hien chay
sdm va chua chay hieu qua se han che dupc muc do ton that.
c. Nhom cac yeu to've kha nang han che ton tha't
c. 1 Khh nnnn t if pponn cca nnuui th;im gia bao hiem
De phat hien chay va chua chay sdm; can trang bi thiet bi phat hien chay va
bao chay; he thong chua chay tu dong; phuong tien, dieu kien chua chay; thanh lap
doi chua chay tai chd; tang cudng hoat dong tudn tra, kiem tra va duy tri tot thong
tin lien lac bao chay.
Kha nang han che ton that phu thuoc vao muc do quan tam bao ve tai san cua
ngudi tham gia bao hiem. Su quan tam the hien d kha nang to chuc trien khai luc
lupng PCCC tai chd; xay dung va tap duyet cac phuong an chua chay; huy dong luc
lupng di chuyen van chuyen bao ve tai san khi chay, no xay ra.
C. 2 Khh n nnn gririn klihi c uu luc luppn c hua c hhy c huudn tcach
Cac dieu kien thuan lpi nhu d gan doi PCCC; bao chay tu dong bao truc .tiep
den Doi PCC; dia diem thuan tien cho xe cuu hoa ra vao; nguon nudc dam bao du
tru lupng can thiet cho hoat dong chua chay.
.
Hieu qua chua chay phu thupc vao kinh nghiem va kha nang trien khai cua luc
lupng chua chay; thdi gian chay tu do ngan.
D. Yeu to' ve gia tri cua doi tupng bao hiem
Phan nay yeu cdu ve ky thuat phan chia gia tri rui ro va cac bien phap dam
bao khoang hCch giua cac gia tri rui ro, nham giam tinh nghiem trong cua ton that.
Dac biet luu y den mot so doi tupng ma giai phap phan chia rui ro it co tac dung,
nhu: Doanh nuUiep tu nhan; chp; khu dan cu; lien doanh 100% von nudc ngoai.
Do ludng rui ro hien nay nhu da neu con nhieu han che vi thuan tuy la dinh
tinh. Th thuc te diOn bien hoa hoan nhieu nam qua va phan tich danh gia tu cac vu
chay ldn; Tac gia de xuat bo xung mot so phuong phap do ludng sau day:
A. Do ludng tan so' rui ro
A. 1 Thang do anh hudng; thang do kha nang xay ra rui ro va ket hop 2 thang
do nay de sap xep thu’ tu uu tien cho cac rui ro. Tuy nhien, no vAn mang tinh chu
quan vi bac rui ro rong va mdi chi dung lai d viec sap xep cac kha nang uu tien cua
rui ro. Muon su dung phuong phap nay phai du doan duoc xac suat rui ro.
A. 2 Bann ppat hien va dd 1 uudn rui ro
Phieu dieu tra co nhieu thong tin trong do la thua nhung co nhung thong tin
rat quan trong khac lai thieu. Khac phuc nhung han che nay; Tac gia de xuat Bang
phat hinn va do ludng rui ro. Bang tap trung khai thac thong tin quan trong va truc
tiep nhat tra ldi cho 2 cau hoi: Nhung moi nguy hiem de doa? va Sai ldi dang mac?
Ben canh nhung mat tich cuc thi bang phat hinn co han che' la khong bao quat duoc
thong tin va chi ngudi co tinh do nghinp vu cao mdi thuc hinn duoc.
B. Udc luong tan suat rui ro
B. 1 Tan suat rui ro hoa hoan tren pham vi ca nudc
Dua vao thong ke nhan thay ln so vu chay co ty ln on dinh va co tinh dai bieu
rat cao theo mot so' tieu chi. Tren co sd nay, Tac gia xay dung va de xuat bang hn so'
nguy co chay. Hn so cho biet thong tin ve tan so' chay doi vdi do'i tuong cu the bang
so tuynt doi trung binh hoac bang so tuong do'i. So sanh tuong doi chi co y nghia khi
so sanh vdi cung doi tuong theo tieu chi phan loai va trong cung ldp d dieu kinn nhu
nhau.
B.2 Tan suat rui ro hoa hoan vdi cac doanh nghinp bao hiem
Bo qua nhung va'n de khac bint thi xac suat RRHH duoc bao hiem la xac xuat
hoa hoan cua ca nudc. Danh gia va QLRR la giai phap tich cuc nham giam tan suat
rui ro va han che' ton that. Can cu doanh thu; boi thudng bao hiem hoa hoan va cac
rui ro dac bint; bang phuong phap binh phuong nho nhat xac dinh duoc ham hoi quy
bieu didn moi quan hn giua doanh thu X, va boi thudng bao hiem hoa hoan y , vdi do
chinh xac cao.
X
Y = 53,77 + 0,08 Xt
Ham hoi quy cho biet; Khi khong co doanh thu cac DNBII phai chi 53,77 ty
dong mdi nam vao viec boi thu’dng cho hop dong thu phi th nam trudc; chi cho
nhung vu ton that do ho so keo dai den then diem hien tai va cac khoan chi du phong
khac. Boi thudng can bien cho lty dong doanh thu phi BHHH tang them trong nam
la 80 trieu dong, nhu vay nghiep vu nay rat hieu qua.
.
B.3 Tan suat rui ro cua doi tuong bao hiem
Ket qua thong ke nguyen nhan hoa hoan cua ca nudc 7 nam (1991-2007) la
chi dSn phat hien nguy co hoa hoan. Tim kiem thong tin se don gian di rat nhiSu neu
nhu chung ta uu tien kiem soat cac kha nang rui ro theo nguyen nhan. Bang kiem
soat nguy co hoa hoan theo nguyen nhan dua vao tong gia tri sai ldi cua mdi nguyen
nhan; so sanh tong gia tri sai ldi giua cac nguyen nhan de xac dinh nguy co tm tien
kiem soat.
B.4 Kha nang ton that ldn nhat
Nhung hanh dong 'cua chu tai san trudc rui ro va y thUc thuc hien cac quy
dinh phong chay cua nhan vien trong to chuc la can cu quan trong de do ludng kha
nang ton that. Su quan tam cua ngudi tham gia bao hiem the hien thong qua viec dau
tu cho cong tac PCCC.
Ton that co moi quan he chat che vdi doanh thu phi; toc do tang trudng kinh
te (GDP) va toc do tang dan so. Co 2 phuong phap du bao RRHH chu yeu la: Du
bao bang phuong phap so sanh va du bao theo mo hinh hoi quy.
C. Danh gia kha n ang tnn tg at true tiep doi tupng bao g iem
Muc do ton that phu thuoc vao gia tri don vi rui ro bao hiem va kha nang giam
thieu ton that. Kha nang giam thieu ton that chiu anh hudng bdi hieu qua chua
chay a
De chuan hoa he so a can phai quan tam xay dung Bo tieu chuan hieu qua
chua chay.
Cong tac quan ly rui ro can doi mdi ve quan diem, phai tu duy theo dung kieu
quan ly rui ro; nghia la can phai biet nhung gi dang didn ra; khong nghng thu thap
thong tin th cac nguon; tang cudng giao tiep de cam nhan duoc dieu bat on nao do
xi
Iru'dc khi no xay ra va co the thuc hien canh bao. Tap trung quan ly voi khu vuc, yeu
to rui ro cao; giam can thiep vao khu vuc yeu to rui ro thap. Quan ly chat che thong
tin rui ro v£ doi tuong bao hiem. Phat hien viec tuan thu va khong tuan thu cac quy
dinh ve PCCC. Mo ho so quan ly rui ro.
Chuan hoa quy trinh quan li rui ro hoa hoan theo 5 buoc; cu the:
Buoc 1: Thiet lap boi canh la buoc quan trong nhat; gom muc tieu quan ly
dat ra, cac nhan to moi trudng, doi tuong co quyen loi lien quan.
Buoc 2: Xac dinh rui ro co nghia la xay dung bo tieu chi ruiro doi voi doi
tuong bao hiem hoa hoan; gom xac dinh rui ro, nguon rui ro.
Buoc 3: Phan tich moi quan he giua kha nang xay ra va nhung hau qua khi
rui ro xay ra. Ket qua cua moi quan he 'nay cho biet cap do cua rui ro duoc xac dinh,
cho phep so sanh va lap muc uu tien cho cac rui ro.
Buoc 4: Danh gia va uu tien xu ly rui ro. Uu tien xu ly cac rui ro khong the
chap nhan duoc. Rui ro co the chap nhan duoc khong can phai xu ly, nhung khong
duoc lang quen.
Buoc 5: xu li rui ro la qua trinh, trong do tac dong tieu cuc cua rui ro doi voi
muc tieu quan li se duoc trung hoa. Bao gom: Chuyen giao rui ro, giam thieu rui ro
va kiem soat rui ro.
Xay dung bo tieu chuan danh gia va quan li rui ro dua tren co so cac tieu
chuan ve nguy co chay, no; an toan phong chay; muc do nghiem trong cua ton that
va kinh nghiem thuc te trien khai.Ket cau cua bo tieu chuan co 3 phan, gom:
Phan 1: Xac dinh muc tieu quan li va rui ro bao hiem.
Phan 2: Nguy co rui ro hoa hoan.
Phan 3: Muc do nghiem trong cua ton that.
xii
DNBH lap ho so quan 11 rui ro va cap nhat thudng xuyen thong tin nhSm phat
hien rui ro mdi; xac dinh lai ket qua danh gia do ludng va kiem tra xem xu ly rui ro
trade day con dung khong
3.3. MOT SO DE XUAT
De cac giai phap phat tren trd thanh hien thuc can phai co cac dieu kien sau:
Mot la: Hoan thien chuong trinh phan mem thong ke
Phftn mem hoan thien thong nhat giua cac DNBH trong ca nudc va bo sung
them cac yeu cau thong ke mdi la:
+ Sd lupng don BHHH da ca'p; trong do sd don vi rui ro; cum rui ro duqc bao
hiem va gia tri bao hiem cua ttrng don vi.
+ Doi vdi mdi don bao hiem can tach phi cho rui ro chmh va rui ro phu lam co
sd do ludng rui ro va tinh toan hieu qua quan ly nghiep vu.
+ Sd vu boi thudng va gia tri bdi thudng; trong do xac dinh rd cac muc do ton
that cho tirng dia ban, khu vuc kinh te; hoac theo gia tri bao hiem va ca'p do nguy co.
Hai la:Thuc hien do ludng dinh lupng va du bao rui ro
De mo hinh hoi quy chmh xac va su dung thuan tien can:
+ Xac dinh dung ban chat mdi quan he giua cac bien nguyen nhan va ket qua;
phan tich muc do bidn thien cua cac lupng bien de du doan dang ham va kiem tra lai
tren do thi trade khi nhap sd lieu vao chtrong trinh.
+ Xay dung chuong trinh phdn mem hoi quy theo cac tieu chi danh gia va
QLRR hoa hoan dat ra. Sd lieu cho chuong trinh phai dam bao do tin cay cao;
thudng xuyen kiem tra sanh doi chieu giua ket qua udc lupng vdi thuc te va so sanh
vdi cac phuong phap khac.
Theo thdi gian vdi sd vu du ldn, tan suat hoa hoan cd the dupe sir dung nhu
xac suat hoa hoan.
+V1 hoa hoan didn bien rat phuc tap nen bang he sd hoa hoan la thong tin ve
tan suat hoa hoan on dinh trong qua khii cd the sir dung de dinh lupng va du bao
xiii
ng&n han phuc vu chuong trinh quan ly RRHH; xfty dung ke hoach, trien khai
nghiep vu.
+ De su dung phuong phap dat dupe hieu qua, phai ket hop vdi nhung phuong
phap khac nhu du bao bang phuong phap hoi quy, phuong phap so sanh. He so rui ro
can dieu chinh hang nam theo tinh hinh thuc te de dam bao chinh xac khi sir dung.
Phuong phap phan tfch so sanh don gian dd thuc hien, nhung yeu cau sb lieu
chinh xac cao va thubng sir dung trong du bao sb vu; mile do ton that chung. Giong
nhu phuong phap hbi quy, nd cung cap thong tin phuc vu chuong trinh quan ly rui ro
chung va ket hop vdi cac phuong phap’khac de hinh thanh nen he thong thong tin
quan ly rui ro.
Phuong phap ma tran cap do rui ro: De thuc hien dupe phuong phap nay phai
khai thac day du du lieu thong tin, chia nho hon cac muc dp vd kha nang va hau qua.
Ket qua dupe ket hop trong cac ma trpn 3x3 hoac 5x5 va tir cap do rui ro xac dinh
yeu cau quan ly cu the. Trong hd so quan ly rui ro hoa hoan cua cac DNBH can bo
sung yeu cau nay.
Ba la: Xac dinh rd cac tieu chuan danh gia
Tieu chuan danh gia xay dung theo cac thu tu uu tien ve nguy co rui ro va
muc do ton that; ngoai ra con cd vai tro gpi y tim kiem thong tin danh gia de ngubi
didu tra rui ro phat huy tinh sang tao va linh hoat trong hoat dong tac nghiep. Cac
tieu chuan danh gia cd the ket hop vdi phuong phap ma tran cap do rui ro de giai
thich va khai thac du lieu thong tin. Bo tieu chuan danh gia va quan ly rui ro chi rd
muc tieu quan ly va phan nguy co rui ro phai xac dinh vdi tirng doi tupng cu the vd
dau hieu canh bao nguy hiem nhu rui ro va hiem hoa.
Bon la: Dau tu cho cong tac danh gia va quan ly rui ro
Cac cap lanh dao can nhan thuc dung vai tro cua hoat dong danh gia va
QLRR trong bao hiem hoa hoan de dinh hudng dau tu, phat trien, bao gbm:
+ Dau tu ve tai chinh cho cong tac kiem tra rui ro, cac hoat dong thu nhan va
luu tru thong tin, phoi hop kiem tra vdi cac lire lupng chuc nang.
xiv
+ Trang bi he thdng thong tin; xay dung cac chuong trinh phan mem danh gia
va quan ly; tiep thu khoa hoc va cong nghe tien tien tu cac nudc phat trien, hng dung
vao hoat dong danh gia va QLRR. .
Nam la: Dao tao doi ngu can bo
De dap hng yeu cau ve doi ngu can bo, can:
+ Quan tam dao tao doi ngu can bo danh gia, quan ly RRHH, co du trinh do,
kien thuc, kinh nghiem de co the danh gia va quan ly doc lap, the hien tinh chuyen
nghiep cao.
+ M6i can bo phai khong ngUng hoc tap, nang cao trinh do nghiep vu de co
the tiep can duoc vdi quy trinh cong nghe khoa hoc tien tien ve danh gia va quan ly
rui ro hoa hoan.
KET LUAN
Nhung nghien chu ly thuyet da lam sang to ban chat va cac thanh phan cua
RRHH. Hoa hoan xay ra phu thuoc vao nhieu nguyen nhan va dieu kien khac nhau;
ton that cung co nhieu mhc do khac nhau. Biet duoc thuoc tinh cua hoa hoan la co
sO cho nhan dang; danh gia; do ludng va QLRR.
DGRR la qua trinh xem xet cac moi hiem hoa ve chay no co the gay thiet hai
cho doi tuong bao hiem trong qua khh hien tai va tuong lai thong qua he thong cac
tieu chuan va phuong phap danh gia; chi ra moi nguy co tiem an va hien huu tu do
ra quyet dinh co chap nhan bao hiem hay khong.
Muc dich cua quan li rui ro la kiem soat cac thay doi ve hiem hoa nham han
che tdi mhc gidi han khong nguy hiem. Trong trudng hop rui ro xay ra thi ton that la
thap nhat. Cac bien phap do la thu nhan thong tin quan li, du bao, xay dung mo hinh
quan ly, phan tan rui ro, tu van, de phong han che ton that. Ap dung cac bien phap
khan cap va tai tro ton that nhanh chong kip thdi.
TU thuc te hoa hoan O nudc ta cho biet cac quy luat ve dien bien; cac dac diem
ve tan suat va muc do ton that cung nhu moi lien he cua no vdi toc do tang tuOng
kinh te va muc tang dan so hang nam. Nhung phat hien nay lam can ch quan trong
khi thuc hien cac phuong phap du bao va xem xet DGRR cu the; day la nen tang co
so cho giai phap hoan thien cong tac danh gia va quan ly RRHH cua luan van.
Boi thudng hoa hoan hang nam co moi quan he chat che vdi doanh thu; hieu
qua kinh doanh phu thuoc vao chat lupng danh gia va QLRR cua mdi doanh nghiep
bao hiem. Giai phap hoan thien dupc bat dau th viec phan nhom theo he thong uu
tien cac yeu to' nguy co lam co so nhan dang rui ro. Tren cd phan tich tac dong cua
cac yeu to' va thong tin thu nhan rut ra th thuc tien de de xuat cac phuong phap do
ludng, nhu Bang phat hien va do ludng rui ro; He so nguy co chay; Hoi quy doanh
thu va boi thudng; Bang kiem soat nguy co hoa hoan theo nguyen nhan va thuc hien
cac phuong phap du bao.
Hoan thien cOng tac QLRR th yeu cau doi mdi quan diem quan ly; theo do
hoan thien quy trinh quan ly gOm 5 budc, trong do de xuat ap dung mot so' phuong
phap do ludng nhu; Do kha nang xay ra hoa hoan; Do mhc do ton that va cac cach
ket hpp theo ma tran cap do rui ro 3x3 hoac 5x5.
Bo tieu chuan danh gia va quan ly rui ro hoa hoan la noi dung mdi dupc de
xuat trong giai phap; vdi mdi loai doi tupng xac dinh ro nhung van de can kiem tra
va chi ro cac dau hieu nguy hie’m lien quan lam co sd cho danh gia va quan ly rui ro
bao hiem hoa hoan.
De giai phap hoan thien trd thanh hien thuc can phai hoan thien chuong trinh
phan mem thong ke; thuc hien cac phuong phap do ludng dinh lupng va du bao; xac
dinh ro cac tieu chuan danh gia rui ro; dau tu cho cong tac danh gia va quan ly rui
ro. Dao tao doi ngu can bo danh gia va quan ly rui ro bao hiem hoa hoan.