Tiểu luận tài chính quốc tế TÁC ĐỘNG CỦA MỨC ĐỘ ĐỘC LẬP NGÂN HÀNG TRUNG ƯƠNG ĐẾN VIỆC THỰC HIỆN CHÍNH SÁCH TIỀN TỆ LẠM PHÁT MỤC TIÊU

TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ TPHCM
KHOA TÀI CHÍNH DOANH NGHIỆP

TÁC ĐỘNG CỦA MC ĐỘ ĐỘC LP NGÂN HNG
TRUNG ƯƠNG ĐẾN VIỆC THỰC HIỆN CHNH
SÁCH TIN TỆ LẠM PHÁT MỤC TIÊU
Đề tài của Sami Alpanda và Adam Honig

TPHCM, Tháng 9 năm 2014
Nhóm thực hiện:

!
"#$
%&%%#
"'()*+
Nhận xét của GV:








2

A. MỤC TIÊU NGHIÊN CU:
,-./,0123'42-567894:;<9
-5=,01>29#'?@AB2?CD5+/?C02E2F/1G
'.?@,H#.';%'#/,01?@DI029J>5/
45DJK+L5',A,M##32M#=,'?K

JN-I789;0MO.&&0424#LD
010/?122G0=5P0C5,017DH#;Q2=?1,01C
#2R;SK74+M#,01C28,'#9?K01$I'10
M#)'+K+?1-+
17T7U'VHW#X,01C2851&
'+5?'1D+-5;H/BY2=4-42-#23
DH;?>L5+KZ 2-M# Sami
Alpanda và Adam Honig/VH:?@đánh giá được tác động của mức độ
độc lập ngân hàng trung ương đến việc thực hiện chế độ tiền tệ lạm phát mục tiêu2Q
2=2##1D010L+4'+D+K?1-+/=00F
E2I01-5M#24.91V-L;
B. PHƯƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CU
%AK#L5DM#11D28=Q.0C
A!00100)2I3/?>1AL+025#129M#
['5\&+?4#YM#[/2GR0)15-J
#2=[D>2+?4,01;"111B?]AC+.3
^2301V>_T#''T` aabcAT#A'A` aadc

;
%?]AC0010H,0/AZD/2Q511242-C;
,2=/e?]AC100105'#:5/0)/?'
?1/E30;
fF0)2I3V#'G
1AL+0GHg23?]AC2
5#129M#['5\&+?4#YM#[;
C. PHẠM VI NGHIÊN CU:
Nghiên c-,01C1HM#,01C/e
1h551#M#11D.-,01C/V:M#1
.2./Q2=2I-+10AC,01C>i+%#;
1'H?TA`j cD'-9?3M#0010H?'.010Akk66Akk?]AC

'#STA#`jbc;
3

Nghiên cu s@ tp trung vào tác đ9ng cMa mc đ9 đ9c lp ngân hàng trung ng đn
vi+c thKc hi+n ch đ9 ti-n t+ l,m phát mCc tiêu cMa 44 n-n kinh t m.i và 22 n-n kinh t tiên
tin đ3c l4y tQ Ball (2010) giai đo,n năm 1980 đ#n năm 2006.Trên cs>đi sâu phân tích
đInh l3ng cMa các n-n kinh t đa ra các đánh giá v- tác đ9ng cMa mc đ9 đ9c lp ngân hàng
trung ng đn vi+c thKc hi+n ch đ9 ti-n t+ l,m phát mCc tiêu.Cui cùng là phân tích các
kênh ti-m năng mà qua đó IT Dnh h>ng đn hi+u su4t l,m phát.
D.  NỘI DUNG BI NGHIÊN CU
1. KHÁI NIÊM V CÁC YẾU TE CHỦ YẾU CỦA LẠM PHÁT MỤC TIÊU.
1&M#11DQ.0'L9AVD
M#5&5E,01C/V#'G`c51+/2I\#5&5E,01C
l`c1HVDM#5&5E,01Cl`cL2-5+H2
10AC5&5E,01C&l`c?'?1L3mV43M#+10
AC5&5E,01C?'.15&5E?1-+.2)H`T'.n
12'1/'oT'.-cl`c129M#+10AC5&5E,01C
215D\&M#-5l`c5DJ22FM#5&5E,01C
.1$?`AC$?1=#/$?5M'Dcl`c5+M#1
.&+001.E'+10AC5&5E,01CV
:$#l`c19A#51;fFA.2)H?@2-0-42-
H;
Khái niêm.
?5`j/j c2##E#K+,01C>1-
5.E2#H2E/1D2-02L3V43M#3
?1-+4H,01C9?V:$#Q5+M#9?
.T/#p;1D'X,01C93?1-+
`'T#H0'H?#THc2823?]AC&>1.&+02#>
9?KK#:40AB'1.=-5IR.ET/#p/
SU/#*#/%#f;

T'1D/1.2#01`V#'G1..E2#H2Ec
2-28D#5M'DA'K+n12'12I;i/+
9T'51'?1-+#H'n12'12I4F;
4

q'9&51/?52##LV43M#+T'n1
` aadcr;
'&H/?52##2I\#s-,01C;T'1
D/,01CV#'GbH`c&V#&$C,012I
3',l`c#5XE2I1D9CMHM#
?1-+l`c3&V#'G-V?`5&W=E-
#Hn12'1c23?]AC'+0&C?1l`cJV,
M#3?1-+&#+&V1'.&$IR-5
',/C/LH2IM#%)l`cJ1+D
;
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9.AB#2.?1-+?1'95&5E
V,2 J1+q_AT#S#TT/#5S'T#5 tTT
`jcr;
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`cC,011T''Sl`c?K290M#%)2o,
01Cl`c5DJAKV1'20=.,01l`c29V,
I1+-Sq<#??SA6TVVT##?#0#`jjcr;
<&5ES,01CF2DVD'?K530-2-`c
C,010D23&V&5#l`cF=#5E2In1l`c2-
S?]ACAKV1',01C',29l`cF=?KDs-
Sl`c712Is1+M#%)q#5#'?['''5'
#H#?`jvcr;
T'11D^T'kkTHTT#/#TTfTT/S'w'6T`jxc/V,
`#?0#THcH)'F15#,M#+5',29M#

5&5E,01C;=V#H#.V,/2=`cy#
-?KO3,01C`V#'G290M#%)/
5

1+D/y#-+2##H2Icl`c5,01Cl
`c?1H-&M#%);
Tại sao lại là lạm phát mục tiêu (IT)? Lý do áp dụng IT? Lợi ích/bất lợi của IT?
#T?zTTA#{'T?*#7'`ja#c2-02L42-s-+,
?#'1%),K#:n+,0140C?1M#
,?#'=-..K#:,01C5&5E22,23C
2=;11D2?)0)-10M#,01/V#'G#YM#$'
+,'#5|V!E6?H'1;n+,01#'V29,2#?1.'
1#2',.2)H28230V>?KV29#'-?D3+/V>
J>40-J?4?D3-J;&R,01#'E,4
-2.',295;
'Y#05n#/-.&+01-5IR.
E10AC,01C95&5E?1-+M#;11D
'XhA'21.2##10AC[A'1.o05=5J'+?]
AC1T'A#\#51`Cn1C-+c/e'D
n+,01T'5|:,01&#9C2D=#?123;
?5`j/j c'X3M#5&5E?1-+,01C
V#'G`c'0U0%)0'15#,'.
0D.1$?129-5l`c5&5EH=',29
5&F0D=#+E2IL#-,01l`c&$I
R=sC%)T'2E/A'2=V,
1+D?@J;%LV43M#5&5E?1-+,01C
e23#/V#'G`c5&5E-+H15P5T/W0'9
C=JV4EM#-5#+5&.2CJ
>+l`c5&5E,01C'1+D5U2
,0145=5?'129Z?1Al`c5&5E[5&$0',Vy

2341M#?15=#l`c5&5E[2Yy','n1
2'1/n12'1',=JV4E;
6

{TVTT` aaac'4HLW'XCW.-,01M#
%)Vy#C?D3#'29?#F;K/C
R30M#_?##/5&5E3?1-+M#,01C2M
',2'0U0212EP,L#?D3,01;}2I1D'
,=B23AH'5'0U0L#H2E,01P,,'
2-5+'LV29-?D340;
#T?zTTA#[~5T6w'VT`j c2##2IX9'L3
M#+2-5&5E?1-+,01C!.9n
1DE'1##'-5?@s-M'#
-IR',/[V>H?@AB.+?]AC011&CK
0YQ#`TAk#6T?c,'#129K'+D1?#+-',+
VDE5?D;IR',01e?@$01-5.
E2-?1-+,01CDH142-n1;
Kinh nghiệm ,quan điêm cua các tác giả về điều kiên tiên quyết trong thực hiện lạm
phát mục tiêu.
'2#H/28=-1DM#-%).
-5+M#1.'+2##10ACK+,01C;
9',1M#•€-+•`[zc/V#'G#??'/S##?#/
S##` aa•c/S#TT/S'T/tTT`jc/##T19?K`jjcS'T
`jvc0'L5=5J1-5.E0D2o1.H
10AC,01C;11D2##12-5+HF0D210.
52##10AC[;H/L#11D#=?K4-12-5+F
23210.5,01C2310AC'1-5.E;
_AT#S#TT/#5w;S'T/#5tTT`jc5+10
AC5&5E,01CM#1.&+01.IR.E
2##2IL-D2,01C'0Fm''`zz[‚z6

kTATA[k#'#Tc230&V#'GIL,
E2I5\&LPl+01l290-&C)
7

9WImHVX2,E2I1Dl?K#H-D1
',29-+,01l001030h7)HAKAKV1',01l
V,M#?1-+X01+D?K+;%-H
2)H/2oV+IL,F'9?1-+0!30;
L#/LHH5&F0D2304D.51.VP2F
H2E?#5&5E,01C'';
?5`juc7T7UL5#,M#1.=-5H2E.
E2,01C=K+/L5=5JV#'G`c12I5=#
H5U/`c12IH5U/`c29H40M#12I-+/
`c,"&#=#/`cAZVIEM#1.H.?KAQ,29
9M#AY';T'1D/1#=-5H2E.E0
'01LH22DVD'3?1-+.-,
01C,'#2315D\&;
_AT#S#TT/#5w;S'T/#5tTT`jc0)?K51V+L#
1.&+01.IR.E`#?/T/SU/[?#T/#*#
%#fc'+gVI1-D/12-5+210AC[`c5&5El
`c142-',292-?1-+l`c15#,EM#%)
l`c142-H2E;
• <&5E%3.1.&+0/1.IR.ER
..95&5EXO3',01C;<&5E
010hM#4D1.[2-712IE2I1D#HE2I-+CM
HM#%)2DVD'?K290-&CM#%)
`%ƒc;%1.IR.ER#H2E5&5E010hM#%)
A'VI0V>LCM#0M3')C)
?1M#0MIR?40AB.n+,01#'-V29
?'.C2-#[5&K+23;

• 142-',295,01C%),1-5
IR.E+9'1&5'+2-?1-+;
1-5IR.E#+0R7H1IR',?'
8

.1.&+0;i+51C,01>1-5IR.
ER2oV>10,mFPR2##V29C
`#TV#A?c2C`C9W?60'#T?c;1..EAZ
VIE.1$?/2oV+?KV29M#1G;
• 15#,EM#%)"#?%ƒ,1.IR.E
K+1V.E#:XJRJKM#'+K+
211-/2gH,V,1+D;
• i42-H2E?#zz['1H2E?#zz[/9?-5I
R.E2o.1D,01'C,01A,;<
+M#T/[?#T/#*#'4HX+HAFQ9n12'1
RVY`##„T7#T#Tc?#95&5E,01C5D.?KO
3M#1?15XDh1H2ED1
M'Q+AG1+#%).1C)B#;
#/<T*#7'`jbc,'X5+K'4H'A!
12-5+51#=23y#8#H5&+10AC[$V#2F2-
#,95D;11DH211M#j -510AC[ 
.AK#?>0y4K+V>%).2=;%2#
#u=2-5+`c,F5€l`c?5yT+l`c290M#
l`c45;C
• ,F5€V#'G?K?…=M#?+mAL+/5DJAKV1'#+/
5DJ&=#12-5+AKV1';
• S5yT+V#'GxW?gT'`VT#TAc+M#
i•_0102I†M#?D=M'l=#IR
5'1l29?)M#IR10)lA'#M#IR5'1l?#
+`?#c-+,1)92I#lR,110=#'2E

',;
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C)?1M#0Ml290-&C#H290''-',29l'A!=
9

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J1?1M#2l1)3l3&40l9.2'
-?K290M#%);
• W?-45V#'GL2-5+5R1292&
M#,01C/2=?KH-D?1-+#5n140l29,H
D.1=#40l29"&#=#l29>]#,;
T'#T?zTTA#A[~5T6w'VT`j c=V#2-5+s2',29
,01C`[c/2=C,01C'1CM#
?1-+l5&=10`k?#A'#Tcl290-&CS`%)
M29'''+?]AC1&CSc;"#?12-5+
1H5123'JVD2.5&5E,01C=230
?#52##10AC[;12-5+HV#'G7)HAK1&2AK
V1',01/K-011V1'1'-?1-+'o
1V1'1'-,01/M+&#+D+H1
?112I5H5?K011IR10A,VX
2GVD+;&R5,1-5.E5&H+
2h>#HQ2F/L3Q+10AC,01C?#2=?KD
+&R2152-H5+,1-5&+0.
E10AC[;
^=Tp/‡VT/i##?`jjc-+K+,01C,
''V#;''V#VP2FK+,01C'J aa 010e
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23HF2+9V1'1'#•9#FOJ;%=/2K+

23,01C695&5EM#3?1-+/9?2-5+
0D23210/2=/9%)290/n12'1
',/1+DV,#'/V1'1',01hD
LH2I?1-+;
10

T'ST„`jc/5+.,01C2823 JD#.
1#151#;%=28yX,01C95&
5E+DM#?1-+5&5EH2oV+30.L-5
y/>]#=n12'1',;%L2osM#,01C#
2+&V#&$-CM#,01/Q#,0140E2I
CA,#:M#?1-+/V,-CM#?1
30h'LH2I?1-+/1+D'+2,23
CM#?1;
#VTTT19?K`jac'X/9'L1.4M#1
IR.E5Q52##10AC,01C+J,1
K+'L#Jj•.L#Jjd;i+J,10K,01
23'995#2152F'Y'[>1IR
.E;<D'4H,1.10AC[.n1DE=n+,01
J?'.1.5&10AC[;<&=.10AC['`QE%\<|c
2-WC,0128HV.2)H'VD,01J
X12Eˆ-'1#5-E2I1DDLM'-,01
5|:;
=,/1.'280)512FH2MD-hHKZL
42-VD4M#5&5E,01C;
2. Chúng ta biết gì về lạm phát mục tiêu?
2.1 Ai đề xuất ra lạm phát mục tiêu và như thế nào?
*,01C74+2F'J aa>%T„tT##AT;
i'1 mj28= a#K+,01C23V#'
GL-5&+01-5.E/L.2#H0

`L.2#'R5|1292gVIK,01Cc/L.28
=9?1,01CE2I/L.#HV1/L
.e#HL..VP2FK+F2)H/L.28K+L
.+2#K+;
%=L.K+,01CV#'G9= d.&+0
5.E;‰/#p/##A#/T/''V#/9Y#SU/fF*#/[?#T/
11

•/T'/%T„tT##A/fT/fF*#/%#f/)H#%#/CH"/1*#
_`fF*#)H#%#28#5y=H5j.HQVy?1-+
402GT''J aaac;
 %=#=a.&+05&K+,01C'
LJaV#'G"#,/f10/"/Š/%D/%#‡H/G"'%#/CHS€
30M'#<|;
Q2=/L.K+,01C2##L2?K51
V+'L2-5+HM#,01C/5',C/L2o
',29;
‹%^
NHỮNG NƯỚC THỰC HIỆN V KHÔNG THỰC HIỆN LẠM PHÁT MỤC TIÊU TIÊU
BIỂU
Những nước thực hiện lạm phát mục tiêu Những nước không thực hiện lạm phát
mục tiêu
Úc Vương Quốc Anh Đan Mạch
Brazil Mexico Pháp
Canada New Zealand Đức
Chile Peru Ý
Colombia Balan Nhật Bản
Cộng hòa Séc Nam Phi Na Uy
Phần Lan Tây Ban Nha Bồ Đào Nha
Israel Thụy Điển Mĩ

Hàn Quốc Thái Lan Thụy Sĩ
Lạm phát tại 19 quốc gia thông qua lạm phát mục tiêu 1988-2000
12

^$W+,01J23T'AsT'.5&#,01C

%G'1M#1DAK#AL+Q[zS/GQ1#;
*,01CAK#b)
Không có sự neo danh nghĩa nào khác ngoài mục tiêu lạm phát: 51#40
K+,01C2G\#.+:0D2#C,012F
'+K?1-+',QC2F51W1#H-/
5=?KV4E/=1$?1292-5N,D>
2n1>1-5.E/)4'?32-H=:?@#
+02DV29M#n1/5&=?K530M#?1-+$
V.3-'&#+02=AR&+HC,
015&Y232FL#/?@D>2,01C'
13

A,;{'2=/+712ICK+2$T'?1,01C
&!#:;
Một tổ chức bình ổn giá cả: 1#J=gH-0D#5VX
2'+VE1DC2FM#?1-+/V,2=.1
C#:51;
Không có sự thống trị của các thế lực tài chính.
Những công cụ thực hiện chính sách độc lập lẫn nhau: )23KA'K
+1&CM#'+2-?1-+22,231C2-#/
290.0M25?'1,01;
Trách nhiệm giải trình và minh bạch trong các chính sách: )F0D
&V1C,012#T'2E/K+?1-+0DV,/
JR2',.&$/IR-15',/CH2IM#1

#Dh-+;,2=1+D1C5&2,23
%)j2bVPV9'+K?1-+91+
DA.V4529'/u)2=2-5+H4#:29.K
+,01C=+D;iH/?K&M#,01C0C9
-'?K+M#IR/JKH)M#)2?P0
701?10!30.C;
Vấn đề lạm phát dần dần được phân định, được hoàn thiện hơn kể từ lúc mới hình
thành đến khi được cải cách %-#40,01C,5&
K+2FH2M12-5+232-0>;iACT[?#T2-P.n1
2'12I'?LJa`+#H[?#TBYK+c;#H)
_VP2FK+,01C4).52,23?K290'?1;
F1.2-K+,01C.52,23?KV,#''
?1`V#'G+&5#1V1'1'-,01/AK2'1,01/VVD
?1-+c1+D2FH2M;%''V#/[?#T/T'/fT/%#f‚
B#&5#1AKV1'-,01;W=#pK+2$1HF
#HQ5VP2FT'2E?1H;•#2=/,01C23K
+'LJa2-W?1-+2#;"
#H.2,23?K4-12-5+3021.K+,01C
=+D;H/L2-5+H285&Y#:']#2F
LJa/51.K+,01C28'4E2=
23L&42I2=Q+:yL5+M#:Q
5+eH23M#L.K+?1,01C51;
Lạm phát được phân loại từ mức độ rất cao đến rất thấp trong những thời kỳ theo
đuổi lạm phát mục tiêu;9?#T'2E,01C5n+,01M#
:5&YAH23?KE2I:?]AC,01C9&C
27)HAK?K+/DW+,015|:/29n+,01
14

40E2I;iACL..E.5K+,01C=n+,
01V#2F b6ub†`T/[?#T/fTcL..EF2)H=n+,01

V#2F5'D•6j†`9Y#SU;''V#/T7'/fF*#c;#4HX0D
4-J2=239n+,01E2A'2='1H074+
-]15=5J'+K,01C/2=+HF1.
K+,01C&V1'-C,01J`2-H45=K
+c'2-5+,015|:#'?KA!?1Y,;
Những nước thực hiện lạm phát mục tiêu có nhiều khác biệt với đặc điểm thực thi
lạm phát mục tiêu, bao gồm chỉ số giá mục tiêu, độ rộng, phạm vi mục tiêu, điều khoản giải
thoát, khả năng giải trình những mục tiêu đã bỏ lỡ, những mục tiêu độc lập, sự minh bạch
toàn diện cũng như sự giải trình đến việc thực thi chính sách thông qua lạm phát mục tiêu;
%L?K51V+H=A'4D>M#0010I?]24.2=;
#O.5K+,01C'R5129..,01
40?@23D'>A.`:?@2-?1-+51#22,23C
,01c;!?K51#L#L',2I?1'+2#
#12o?1-+'5K+,01C2,01
740;
2.2 Các nước áp dụng lạm phát mục tiêu thì có khác biệt hay không?
Œ2)H$#0'LD>M#1)2oM#5\&2
.,01C;
)y2o#>2)HR#30210AC#01C•%L2o'
M#-5\&)D>•Q)D>'2.,
01C•$#?@F30)42-;
i42-4/R#30210AC,01C
• i+712IR#30210AC,01C45=%ƒ0D
712I23R,30.5R,2=2;
• K'4H1.RVyˆR#30210AC,01C
;
• i+VyˆR#HR5'+10AC>5=5J5U+
D;
i42-#%L)'D>2,01C•Œ2)H$#712I
VX&2#)

` cf`[mŽc•k`[k/~0T/z?#/ƒ//z[/^[/[[c
15

• i.AL+M#j•.'Y J` aa6 aaac
• [k,01V
• ~0T>]#AI
• z?#oA^{f
• ƒW1ADVJ
• CJ>-+
• z[SK290M#)#
• ^[C290M#)
• [[SK290M#1&CM#)#
i42-V#SKD>M#O)2.,01C
1. ".29,01V[k
• =D>215229,01C
• 1.10AC29,01C2-.2+D,017
9'?.?#5K+29,01C
• 1.K+29,01C?@=,01#'1.
5&K+',
2. >]#AI~0T
• 1.=3>]#AI#'302.,01C
• F1.&+0.5&0DL.K+,01C

3. oA^{f`z?#c
• =#+IV2.oA^{f
• H+H5&2,2V
4. n1ADVJ`ƒc
• <&=+215
5. CJ>-+`c
• =+215

• %IV2.,01C
6. v.2'M#)#
• *,01C=+o@.?K2901&C290M#)

• =+IV2.C290M#)/
)=H-KA'H2IC'/:?@,W12'1
'oT'W+J>-+K+29,01C
• *,01CR23530.1CM#0M;
2.3.Lạm phát mục tiêu có phải là một chính sách thành công?
9?C282##2I1-5IR.E451
V+?'.1-5;")H9#:/F230)5€5
01?15\&;*#242-H/9?28
R-5DJ1#IR.E10AC,01C`*fc
?1-`Sc';%'&RH5U>1#I
R.E/+'0U01',2I?1=H-KH1=
16

AB2L5C74VA+5\&;?5237T9R
M92.5&5E*f/&'XLVJ5'J-+DM#
5&5EH>1.IR.EF23)P/7T7U91$;
=h5'X2o24$E2IM#-5\&>1.10
AC,01C51>9?5#,.L.10AC+-+
#H;
Œ9.&+05&&VK+,01C91
`".5#051.?]AC2G•'/CHS\.Jj€c
T'2E9?1-+.,01C
*+2-H=hX,01C2.?1-+#H
-+K?1L5D2,23M#?1;
(T7UP:&+K+F2)H-+211L5+
.-,01C'905n#;9?#?1282##95

#4JAY/=hD90F'2=-?K&2!#
*f;
Sự độc lập của NHTW và lạm phát mục tiêu củng cố qua lại lẫn nhau;<+
'LJ aa'4HX+>9L#?K290M#)
RO3'+40,01C;Œ9?#.540,
01C40L&C290'1)/
R30>%T„tT##AT;Œ1.51/_/&C2902##?#
57DH#,01C
%ƒW2,'2-S.9292902=\#5&2Yy
?K290''.0M/0D=H-KA'2-1&CS2
2o23C,010M'30;")M2-5+H/.2=
5&K+9?15'1I62=9?15&7T7U2
?K5M#S/0DK+9?15&I/5
)C)?1/GV!2P0')CH5&0DMHQG%ƒ
+)/0D?KACMHQG01&C3M#0M
.A)$Q1G51M#0M;%G,9?15'1
I‘z?#A'#T’/10K,01=GQ?15'1?@
D+D2-M#S;
%ƒ0D=gH-?P?5&T'2ECM#1V?5
51/-/&J+/'on12'1;iST'2E2GR
.1CH5&K+C,01E2I/'o=e
5&+D;iAC%ƒ2GRT'2ECn1/2L'n1E2I
17

>CV9%ƒ0D#+0IR/52=-=#'
'o40'22,,01C;i+#=9
'0H;'LJ aad6j/SM#%%%T'2E-C/
'2=E2In123':4;i-VD'LJHi+#282,
23C-n1/C,01285&2,23>C`J aad
2oC•†/Ka/j†lJ aaaCb6x†/K/ †lJj

Cb†/K‚/x†c;'LR30?]ACn1',/
7U-ohH/Cn1e=!G,.C,01.2-
5+0DsC,010D232F/5&S?@5&
=23YF'?K&;
Thông tin, sự minh bạch, và trách nhiệm được củng cố lẫn nhau trong chính sách lạm
phát mục tiêu;i+40,01C28T'?#`2&52.cV.D
.M#)'+H-2,#&$IR?KV9
3V'?1-+V,;9?#K+,01CVP
2F&5#1VDV1'1'-,01/L01V-?1-+/1VVD
:0M#%ƒ/1&)/LAKV1'-,01`7TVDjc;
'?1,01COKH-&,@23K+V>1)
#:'1?1-+#H/?K+'
?1?K5:-,01L#Y)'+2,23,01C
`T#5T9?K; aaac
s/V,\#C,010D23HD2&$9
1s/V,+D/2A)$4CE2I1DM#S
';"GR%ƒ0D=1+D&V2A)$-L
#H2E?1.LhA's;o51/%ƒ0D=s1+M#
>29'5K+C,01282o#/0DD'A)$91
A)M/&5#/s#R712I,01/%ƒ/#H0M/#HD#;
"-2==X,0123712I?>4$#H10KI;
Việc thực hiện lạm phát mục tiêu đã đạt được thành công trong nỗ lực giúp các
nước giảm lạm phát – nhưng mức này không nằm dưới mức lạm phát của những nước
công nghiệp không thực hiện chính sách lạm phát mục tiêu;X'4H1.
28K+,01C28D,01'A,7A.?@2,235
5&K+,01C;H,01C5&',01X
A.,01M#1.&+02810AC29-+#H/`T#5T
9?KJ aac;i+40,01CR#293.2F
V#2F'+D,01`'V'9?K;jc
*,01C23'9?123#5o0L$?V43;

%LJ aa/',Q.5M'D.E'#2', aa•6 aaa/-
5.=-:/V+>95.4.€?#
#.#`€28K?KVP#H'+>95.H&9.
18

4'LJ?##;%R=-/RA!28-V,/
&H283Q2=;1&H5.H28VP2F28&/1
A'#+0e.40-F2-H;1&+0.23,'#
VX+>-5DJ5A'#.'#F;1R5|?#
#?K5>2FM#V!E&+/=V2E.'YbJ;
i+AH#5y10B0C/LV!EyBY7DH#;4D
2-H'LJ?##LJ-5014'
I?]€;c2#23-5.#);KH5-#?10
X,01C9#235/V>>-#K
+,01C/5&=$?V43.'D>2+2,23
,0140E2I;%L#K+,01CL-5
>/y0C94-'L$?:A'DM#95M
'D)“J aa•613.L.5&K+,01C
5&VID>V>L$?H;'?L.K+,01C
51‰/T/[?#T/%T„tT##A280D1ILV43-530
.1$?M#n1,28n12'1D215;:AKV1'+H
91&/VX1,517H?141AB2,01;
'#2', aaa6j$?1AF9R30#2.L.0
5gAFK+,01C/'2==2-021.=#p/9
Y#SU#*#;i+#J215,)H#,016&#1J3
Dn12'1‚'CM#L.H2#232o',
21V1'29;H=9VX+#HQL.K+,01C
'4HXL129M#$?AF',01VD5&215`,
01JQ#0DW,Rc
Lạm phát mục tiêu đã làm giảm tỷ lệ đánh đổi và biến động sàn lượng tại các nước thực

hiện lạm phát mục tiêu, tiến đến mức gần hơn với các nước công nghiệp không thực hiện
lạm phát mục tiêu;T#5TT#;` aaac4HX,01C5&'+D
,015U0/V>,01C5&'n+212E2R
'f0?#H2E;H/AK#1VX.M#9B.M#L
.K+5&K+,01C/'V'T#;`jc5Xn+
212E28D>1..E?#5K+,01C;:e4HX
2RV29?D328A7'D#-5.E&+0=#
?#5K+,01C/27407W.`2&540cL#?1>
1.&+05&K+,01C;
&#D'L7.,0151#?#',K#:+2-
WC,01/%ƒ=0DV1,2M#TH<` aaxc-4
2-%ƒW#)25?'1,01/5&.?KV29M#?D
3;X+W#X:W+,0140?@AB2E4.-?D3/
19

Đường cong Phillips biểu thị quan hệ giữa tỷ lệ thất nghiệp và tỷ lệ lạm phát (đường cong
Phillips phiên bản lạm phát) hoặc giữa tỷ lệ thất nghiệp và tốc độ tăng trưởng GDP (đường
cong Phillips phiên bản GDP). Đường này được đặt theo tên Alban William Phillips, người
mà vào năm 1958 đã tiến hành nghiên cứu thực nghiệm dựa trên dữ liệu của nước Anh từ
năm 1861 đến năm 1957 và phát hiện ra tương quan âm giữa tỷ lệ thất nghiệp và tốc độ
tăng tiền lương danh nghĩa[1].
Lý luận của trường phái kinh tế học vĩ mô tổng hợp
"R'f0?A70#0D
<€0 ax=+3n+,0151#'oA!29J>^{f
e#';"D+32=/15M#R015:\&E
3028?]AC5DM#f0?AK2R'f0?A70#
0D92GI#-.C'1n+4+0C1
n+,01;2RH1530L#n+,01n+4+0;{:T'
2R'f0?/Zn+4+0D7n+,01?@Jl3,;
Q2=/R015:\&E30hX2Dn+4+00M

28?]AC?1DhEF/?'A'n+4+0=#+3-V-
L.n+,01/J>5#'2)H#,01;*,01
110DD2Dn+4+0;
What Does Sacrifice Ratio Mean?
_T''#'#T#?T?T'??#??'#TA„?'„A'„T'''0'
20

#Tk#'#HTA?;T#'?##TAVH#5T'?'k'?0'A'#A
AAVHT0TT#T#Tk#'/#A?'TT?T'??'k'00T †
#Tk#'
`n+212E9W?52'R10#D?D352
#H2E7.,01;n+H23VX14H0?D74VI4#'
0FJ#H2E',01/?M#=VI'?K41M#?D3
 †#H2E',01c
Lạm phát mục tiêu có lẽ đã giải quyết tốt hơn những cú sốc lạm phát;T'_TA#
^''A#` aadc&T#5T9?K;` aaac/,01C5&D,
015|:7#=/WAFAFT'R#;:4HX,015U'A
28D,>L.K+,01C'LJ aa/'4HX
L.K+,01C5|:-,,01/A'2='
:5&\--D>o-M#,01'15
Chính sách tiền tệ khi thực hiện lạm phát mục tiêu phải linh hoạt vì nó phải kịp phản
ứng và điều chỉnh cho phù hợp với những cú sốc lạm phát nhất thời và không làm ảnh
hưởng đến kết quả trung hạn của mục tiêu. Những nước thực hiện lạm phát mục tiêu
5&0DL.2=#Y”R5U,01”`9CQA'</ aaxc
0D5I0R.L$?KK/:T'2ECD,
01AFAF/=0D.L$?2F#,R;XM#TT
•#`jc'4H?KV29M#?D32F#=9#YK'4D
1',2951#M#L.K+,01C
',/2DR)y/‘"9+5yC,01230U0V#'
20D,1$?-E#HEF•’/‘C,019'?C

#H'9542I•’‘C,01=#H2ET'R##H5&•’;
93M#*f>OH'0U01#-+=?K',
H-KH42I'+?]ACS2,1$?2.-5;
K/h'F2)HM#9?1D/>1#I
R.E?K',HYF/V>1#HR0D
IL$?,;&R1*f230?>?K
',2'0U02,231C,01'A,lA'H1HY
23:‘*f',’/2823D'M#9?1D;
V,M#1D'-2-S?@'%ƒ5==K+S
.y1l'52=/A'V91+%ƒ?@0DD12P
L:KH'+K+S,AB.+3,01#';H
21

/9?De2$5=X*f5&0D0
L#V1V+;"*f?>,H-KH/HF
23?KM9M#&$?KM9M#I;*f=$0.?K
0M#&/2&M9+SX'CA,VE
1DL2823K+>-#2#H;H/
L3*f=#,2Yy%ƒ0DV,/=5€J2
','&RI0,0>1#IR.E;%#HD5=
5DJ2',/eB#2M&RIM#9#5&=
5DJM92%ƒ0'C5?'1,01;
?1-+0s',015K+,01C=
23MV>,01C;%)=+C0'+
E2I1D=7.J5C+,01C`T#5T9?KJ
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W?,01†9$23:E2I1D;W?,01H0DW?
,01VD/W?,0128',QD>M#L$?1DL
1D5&I129V>S`%ƒ)•2I\#E2I1D'J

j W?1DA.j†mJc;
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1.5&0D5&o0L42--5=#/
-+/=?K51V+.-29:M#42->1#IR
.E;SKH5UM#5=#/-+'1#IR
.E>4AZVIE5=,01#''o57DH#195M'D
-+l>H5&V.231IKM#2G-1#H;{'2=/1
#IR.E0D2o.21',2=+RA)=
H?#L',+/Q2=AB2+3#H-+;+3#H-+
01?AR5&WA'AZV,01287DH#'15/YA'9
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AI;KH28V9#-+0D'0U01),
`%c-]',+;T'2=/5=?KHAI299Q9+?#',+/
5&N?@,'#?K'D',2.)2D)WF#H2E
2G-2I1M#15'D-]&;YR3051$-#2#
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Hiện tượng rút vốn bất ngờ (có thể dùng để giải thích cho thuật ngữ cú sốc đầu ra)
942-=129,>1#IR.E/2=+3$V4
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K+91=+;XV#2F'4HX>1#I
R.E/+3$V4R=-5DJ7DH#;"-H>s
?#95M'D>%#J aadC7J2#M#&H•'1&H
51IR0ƒ#;"-HAB2L0y2'1'X/9
VA+9/+3$V4R+DM#LHV'1292
1#IR.E;+3H=01?Q5M'D>9#

IR.E/N,5M'D>%#/?K#H-?#1#I
R.E51ARA'L5=5J7DH#>'1#H/2oV+
L5=5J>1)M#.;#H-VP2FK?K
C#5'D>9)A'?A5'DM#1>40
?'.HF`##?c?#5:VI45&AK5.23/Q2=AB
2+)V1V11'5'1M#1IR.E.1
40/'o4e+5&##'19241L&C3.A'
1#IR.E01;=280y2'1XH=
D'L12974,M#95M'D>%#21#I
R.E;
129M#+3$V4R2Q#5&#;N,
>)€*#/_T#0DILD>:Q+G
299DH#/'5#1-,51&?K`oA!W+J>
5M#eDb†c;Œ)1/•280CG91,@/
'52=[A'T?#B2#:,1D'2D'Q57DH#5M'DJ
aa•;%'4HX/129M#G#H2E2992O#
51#/=0C9-'L2-5+V#2F;=29340?'.
_T#5&0D2o.42-2&#'1?D3l'52=,R2AZ
#5M'D/F1&C3M#_T#2-232I1VX2&#€;o
51/#HD5D•[A'T?#2-0DID>M#15'D3VX
',+/•28789'190F.L5=5JM#`A'
H/293M#•JQ5'D j25'Dvv†^{f'1J aax6
aad;>H/$#9FL#4HX42-3F?K4)2-2G-
AR282=#YH)H#29M#5M'D;
1DV225X,01C282349
-+.4&/?'?1#+L#L.=5+'+K
+,01C?1#H-+23&#V>9=5?'1
M#1.&+04&LK-+51'J aa;
23


3. Nội dung đề tài của Sami Alpanda và Adam Honig.
12)H'4H0F2&11D2-12G+10AC
?1-+,01C4'1-5/2oV+1-5.
E.L29&51#;11D282##12-5+:=
2-5+HF0D210.52##10AC[;HL#11D#=
?K4''-12-5+F23210.510AC?1,01
C;%T'h5M#0F2&11D210AC&
?1,01CF0D=12-5+F12-5+H ,
F5€2DVD'2Ml#H?5yT+2M,2I2K1$?l
12-5+-45l12-5+-?15=#-&.Ž9
2-5+H2F'=12-5+H11D2)H?K
290M#%ƒ?'.0M/290'+712I,001C1&C
?1-+/290-&C)/+)
290#''K?1-+?1[&
9'-1D=#2?K290M#)=
92-5+H'&M#[`?5/jljul•TTTT#/ aaa/
zTA#–5T6w'VT/j c;iAC[=5&&'+2,23,01
401)=VI10KV>1I#n+4+0
40'o01-2V!2P0)C.;KH/[40=
ChX12-5+H515&Y;$V#'G,01C
CM#?1-+/?KPoM#?KI`?KP1
.,'M#0Mc/5DJ,?K2&#=#/H-D
?1-+=+D/?KV,/?KI1+M#%ƒ`#*#7'/
Jj•/zTA#–5T6w'VT/j c
j
;'R30H/[=?@+D'
1&R[40;$&:=”+2-5+H;”
ŽH9?&M#9?1D51,=Lh51
-:'X29290M#%ƒ40&M#[#'2oV+
=.=-5.E;

2$&D'2-5+H?#[2'4H23?K#=5DJ$7DH
##+)D;
24

%9AC51M#+H/[40=h?K+)
5&#'5&T',,015|:/'4HX[==91
29.`T#5T9?K/ aaal?5/ aaalST??'/ aa•c/'52=9
)=H/=5&F29HT'M#5|:,0125—.
[`#/j l^'#T?S#T?/jdc;9FL#/$&?@'2327T+
,@M#[>1.5&=1)290;
129M#[402+DM#[0C9'29,M#1+
2-5+H+D+
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M#[-+K+M#?1[$&H:?1y9#
H;"g2I.5DM#$&/$&5&4HVX-1AC
=3M#[>1./1.2#E.29#'M#[;H
$&/01+13.>1.2#01.2940M#[;%L
5DHR-#2'X[92-5+F'+D
[;''13/[W=+D51)5&0D29
0/'4H+D+#:+2-5+H;{'2=/1-
5.E5&R23[#'.5+AC[93
?1-+;
S#  2=  $  &  2-  #  1  5  &  #  =/  1  -  5    .  E
J+D['+D,01;"oV+/$#7T7U-5#,
1.=[40=-92D15#,2=?'.1.[
#'VX+10AC[;iAC/&#[=#,9?K#J.K
'ohH'['1.=[401I#>=1+
'#5M#:2,0140`?5/ aaal#*#7'/j•c;i=@
#:/5Q50C3)C)?1&#+,'#-?@)H

H'+2,231C,01/[=#-5n.
D)C)?1'1.=[40/`[z/jxc;[e==+
D'+,?K2&#=#/JR+KM#?1-+5DJ
39#20V#0X[12-5+H282-051#:'?K
&M#V45|3?1-+'5&-M9'oD>[/A'2=?KP
o  M#L  2-  5+  H5&    D  >  2  + 10  AC  [`##TT#J  jj/[z/J
jx/#/jvc;
25