Các kịch bản năng lượng hướng tới nền kinh tế không phát khí thải cho việt nam
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LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving
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,
. ,
m
trong
2011-2030.
,
,
,
,
LEAP (Long-
range Energy Alternative Planning System)
.
. 3 4
,
. 5
6
-2030). 7
.
2030
208MTOE v , 220
228
. Trong
2030 148.2MTOE, 152.1
152.7
.
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2030,
2
5.6, 5.3
5.4 /
/
,
.
571, 552 541
.
,
n2030 244.4, 223.8
214.6
CO2/year.
,
(
2018)
.
.
, ,
, n
.
2030
42.6 , 44.6
45.0 .
2030
63.1
/
, 77.1
/
84.1
/
.
2013
.
2030
35.9MTOE/
, 41.1MTOE/
46.2MTOE/
.
2030 91%
.
69% 80%
, ,
,
LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving
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ABSTRACT
Energy, particularly electric energy has been proven to be a driving force in
economic development for every country, including Vietnam. Therefore topic
Energy scenarios to move toward a zero-emission economic of Vietnam
executed with the objective of building various scenarios of energy environment,
which may occur in Vietnam from 2011 to 2030. Factors that influence the energy
demands and level of environmental emissions include population growth rate, GDP
growth rate, planned development of field economics, level of urbanization,
production technology and energy consumption, etc., were investigated in this
study. Software, LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System) was used
to analyze and simulate scenarios of energy environment.
Thesis consists of 7 chapters. Chapter 1 to chapter 2 presented an overview of
research issues and theories related to energy and environment in Vietnam and
around the world. Chapter 4 and chapter 5 presented the current status of energy
resources in Vietnam as well as the current status of energy consumption and
emissions in field economics of Vietnam, which were used as a database to build
the scenarios of energy environment. Chapter 6 presented all basis for propose to
build the energy scenarios in Vietnam and introduced LEAP software. Chapter 7
presented the result of energy environment scenarios toward a zero-emission
economic of Vietnam in the period 2011-2030 by applying LEAP software.
The results show that primary energy demand in Vietnam tends to increase,
with a value of 208MTOE in Reference scenario, 220MTOE in Average growth
scenario and 228MTOE in High growth scenario in year 2030. While, the total
demand of energy consumption in economic fields is predicted to come to an
amount of 148.2MTOE, 152.1MTOE and 152.7MTOE along with scenarios in
2030.
Forecast to 2030, the average CO2 emissions of Vietnam will be at 5.6, 5.3
and 5.4 tons/person/year along with Reference, Average and High scenario. The
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greenhouse gas emissions under the scenarios are 571 million tonnes of CO2/year,
552 million tones of CO2/year and 541 million tones of CO2/year in 2030. Therein,
the greenhouse gas emissions from energy transformation operations are
contributing with a great significance. By year 2030, emissions from these activities
are 244.4 million tones of CO2/year, 223.8 million tones of CO2/year and 214.6
million tones of CO2/year follow the scenarios.
Only with High growth scenario, we can provide enough electricity (from
2018) and petroleum products (from 2028) for domestic demand. Imported coal and
emissions also are lowest. Average growth scenario is relatively feasible, we can
guarantee to provide nearly enough electricity demand and reduce the import of
coal and oil products as well as emissions compared to Reference scenario.
The investment costs for power plants and generation to 2030 are forecasted at
42.6 billion USD for Reference scenario, 44.6 billion USD for Average scenario
and 45.0 billion USD for High scenario.
Coal mining sector reaches a value 63.1 million tones/year in 2030 for
Reference scenario, 77.1 million tones/year for Average growth, and 84.1 million
tones/year for High growth scenario. In any case, Vietnam should start to import
coal to meet shortfall for domestic requirements from 2013.
Production output of domestic oil products will reach 35.9MTOE/year in 2030
for Reference scenario, and reach 41.1MTOE/year for the Average growth and
46.2MTOE/year for the High growth scenario. If we are able to achieve High
growth rate, we can provide 91% the requirement of domestic market in 2030. With
Reference and Average scenario, this value is 69% and 80% in 2030.
The results also show that energy consumption and gas emissions can be
reduced in terms of the growth rate through variety of measures such as technology,
policies and energy saving.
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MC LC
TRANG
Quy
i
ii
iii
iv
v
Abstract vii
c ix
xiii
xiv
xvi
Chng 1 1
1
2
2
3
4
4
6
7
7
7
8
8
9
1.5 Phng pháp và ph 9
Chng 2 10
C 10
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c 11
14
2.3
ng
. 15
15
on). 15
15
. 17
Chng 3 20
G L 20
20
21
3.2 ng s . 21
3.2.1
. 21
3.2.2
. 29
. 33
33
35
38
3.3.4
41
Chng 4 43
L
43
4.1 C
. 44
2
Nam. 45
4.2.1
. 45
48
49
4.2.4 51
4.2.5 53
4.2.6 Lâm Ng. 55
4.2.7 56
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Chng 5 60
C
-2030 60
60
5.1 C 61
61
61
ng . 62
62
63
môi tr 65
67
67
69
73
73
74
75
5.5 Gi
- môi tr
77
5.5.1 L 77
79
80
5.6 Gi
81
Chng 6 83
83
6.1 C s . 84
Key Assumptions. 84
6.1.2 C s . 85
- Demand. 86
- Households. 86
Industry. 91
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Transport. 98
Lâm Ng (Agriculture Foresting Fishing). 103
Others).
106
Transformation. 110
110
eration). 110
6.3.3 c 118
6.3.4 Khai thác than (Coal Mining). 121
123
6.4 ng. 124
6.4.1
(/v: ) 125
6.4.2
(/v:
ng). 126
6.4.3
(/v:
ng - MTOE). 126
6.5 127
6.5.1 . 127
6.5.2 ng s
2030. 128
Chng 7 130
130
7.1
130
7.2
132
135
138
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BOT Built Operation - Transfer
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CER Certified Emission Reduction
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
EVN Vietnam Electricity
GJ Gigajoule
GTVT
IPP Independent Power Producer
IPPC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
kWh Kilowattt-Hour
LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
MMBTU Million British Thermal Unit
MTOE Million Tonne of Oil Equivalent
TOE Tonne of Oil Equivalent
TCE Tonne of Coal Equivalent
KTV/Vinacomin Vietnam National Coal Mineral Industries Group
PVN/Petrovietnam Vietnam Oil and Gas Group
WMO World Meteorological Organization
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TRANG
3.1:
22
3.2: 28
3.3: 29
3.4: 36
3.5: 36
3.6: 37
3.7: . 38
3.8: Các nhà m 39
3.9:
. 40
3.10:
. 41
4.1:
45
4.2: 45
5.1: ÷2030 61
5.2: ÷2030 62
5.3:
(2011÷2030) 62
5.4: lâm-
62
5.5: 2010 63
5.6: 63
5.7: 64
5.8:
2010 64
5.9: trong
,
69
5.10: 70
5.11:
71
5.12: 72
5.13:
. 80
6.1: 84
6.2: 84
6.3: 86
6.4: 2030 87
6.5:
2030
88
6.6: 2030 90
6.7:
2011÷2030 92
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6.8: Ktheo
2011÷2030 92
6.9: 94
6.10:
94
6.11:
95
6.12:
95
6.13:
96
6.14:
96
6.15:
96
6.16:
97
6.17:
97
6.18:
97
6.19:
2010 99
6.20:
GTVT
2011÷2030 100
6.21:
101
6.22: 101
6.23:
102
6.24:
102
6.25:
102
6.26:
102
6.27: -Lâm- 104
6.28:
Lâm 105
6.29:
(2011÷2030) 107
6.30:
108
6.31: 108
6.32:
109
6.33:
109
6.34:
109
6.35:
111
6.36: 2011÷2030 112
6.37: 2011÷2030 113
6.38: 2011÷2030 116
6.39:
2011÷2030 116
6.40:
117
6.41:
117
6.42: 120
6.43: ác than 122
6.44:
(2011) 128
6.45:
128
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TRANG
2.1:
16
3.1: Khai thác,
2011 30
3.2: 2000-1011 32
Hình 3.3: S 33
3.4:
2010 34
nh 3.5:
2020 35
nh 3.6:
2030 35
Hình 4.1: 44
Hình 4.2: -2010 46
Hình 4.3: CO2 -2010 47
Hình 4.4: 47
Hình 4.5: -2010 48
Hình 4.6: 2000-2010 49
Hình 4.7: -2010 50
Hình 4.8: -2010 50
Hình 4.9: -2010 52
Hình 4.10: -2010 52
Hình 4.11: -2010 54
Hình 4.12: -2010 54
Hình 4.13: lâm -2010) 55
Hình 4.14: lâm (2000-2010) 55
Hình 4.15: - 57
Hình 4.16- 57
Hình 4.17: 58
Hình 4.18: 58
Hình 5.1: 64
Hình 5.2:
65
5.3:
66
Hình 5.4:
78
Hình 5.5: 79
6.1: C
85
6.2: C
85
6.3: C
85
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Hình 6.4: ÷2030 89
Hình 6.5:
(2010÷2030) 89
Hình 6.6: 90
Hình 6.7: Industry) 94
Hình 6.8: 101
Hình 6.9: Lâm 104
Hình 6.10: Lâm 105
Hình 6.11 108
6.12:
2011÷2030 115
Hình 6.13: ÷2030 115
Hình 6.14:
giai
÷2030 117
6.15:
(2010÷2030) 119
Hình 6.16:
cao (2011÷2030) 120
Hình 6.17:
(2011÷2030) 120
6.18:
(2010÷2030) 122
Hình 6.19: ÷2030 124
6.20:
125
6.21:
theo 126
6.22:
heo 126
6.23: 2011÷2030 129
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Trang 1
C 1
TNG QUAN
:
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: 1
1.1
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1.1 Tng quan v c nghiên cu.
t v.
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(www.vnbaolut.com - 10/2010
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(03/2011
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LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving
Trang 3
,
,
,
Nam, , .
,
, các
,
“Các kịch bản năng lượng hướng tới nền kinh tế không phát khí thải
cho việt nam”.
“Energy scenarios to move toward a zero-emission economic of Vietnam”.
1.1.2 Tm quan trng cc nghiên cu.
s
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www.laodong.com 05/2010).
Ngoài ra, ,
Tuy nhiên,
LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving
Trang 4
à
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2010 2030
1.2 Các kt qu nghiên cc.
1.2.1 Các kt qu nghiên cc.
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www.evn.com).
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2011-2020 2030 ()
LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving
Trang 5
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LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving
Trang 6
1.2.2 Các kt qu nghiên cc.
h
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100%
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LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving
Trang 7
1.3
M tài.
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2010-
2030.
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LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving
Trang 8
-
1.4.2 Nhim v nghiên c xut.
,
-
- Phân tích
và
-
lai
.
-
2010-203
.
1.4.3 Gii h tài.
Do mt s các yu t ch quan t cá nhân hc viên và quan t s phc
tp ca h thu t ng, tài
c thc
hin da trên các s liu thng kê ca các t chc liên quan
LEAP. Kt qu c c kim chng và thc hin trên
h thng thc. Tuy nhiên,
.
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1.4.4 Ni dung nghiên cu.
.
3
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-2030).
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1.5 n nghiên cu.
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LUT NGHIP GVHD: TS.Võ Ving
Trang 10
C 2
LÝ THUYT
- Trình bày
.
- Trình bày economic) và
- .
2
2.1 .
2.2 .
2.3
2.3.1
.
2.3.2 .
2.3.3
.
2.3.4
.
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2.1 Các lý lun.
a.
-
theo
www.vungtaujobs.com).
b. N: C
và còn kéo
www.en.wikipedia.org).
(theo
www.infinite-energy.com)
+ N "cold fusion
. Hay
