Nghiên cứu các yếu tố quyết định đến chính sách chi trả cổ tức bằng kĩ thuật hồi quy fama macbeth bằng chứng thực nghiệm tại việt nam

Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phuong, Tap chi Phat tri6n Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

Nghien cum cac yeu to quyit dinh cten chinh sach
chi tra co ttic bing ki thulfit hoi quy Fama MacBeth: Bing chting thurc nghqm tai Vi0 Nam
NGUYEN THI NGQC TRANG
Tnr6ng Dai hoc Kinh to TP.HCM —
BUT KIM PHVONG
Trireng Dai hoc Van Lang —

Ngay nhan:
23/08/2017
Ngay nhan lai:
27/09/2017
Ngay duyet nang:
29/09/2017
Ma- so:
0817-G19-V13
Tir khoa:
Chinh sach c6 tlrc; KT
thuat Fama - MacBeth;
Kha nang sinh
Mire
• do nam gift tien; Tinh
thanh khoan.
Keywords:
Dividend policy; Fama MacBeth method;
Profitability; Cash
holdings; Liquidity.

Nshien dm nay xem xet cac yeu to guy& dinh den chinh sach chi tra
ca tirc cua cac cong ty phi tai chinh niem yet tren Thi truOing Chimg

khoan Viet Nam trong giai doan 2008-2015 bang ki thuat hen quy
Fama - MacBeth. Cu the, nghien dm se phan tich tac Ong cua quy
ma cong ty, kha nang sinh 19i, co. hei tang tilting, rui ro, \long d6i
cong ty, tinh thanh khoan cua c6 phieu, don bay tai chinh va mac de
nam gift tien len quyet dinh chi tra ca tac
cong ty. Kat qua chi ra
kha Wang sinh 19a, mix de nam gift tien, tinh thanh khoan cua co phieu
va yang doi cong ty dOng vai tro quan trong trong chinh sach chi tra
co tac. Ngoai ra, co. hei tang tnrong va dOn bay tai chinh ding co tac
Ong den quyet dinh chi tra co tac. Trong khi do, 2 yeu to con lai la
quy m6 cong ty va riti ro khong c6 anh hiking gi den quyet dinh nay.
Abstract
This paper examines the determinants of the dividend payout policy
of non-financial firms listed on the Vietnamese stock market for the
period between 2008 and 2015 using Fama and MacBeth's (1973)
methodology. Specifically, we analyze the effects of firm size,
profitability, growth opportunities, risk, firm life-cycle, stock
liquidity, financial leverage, and cash holdings on firms' dividend
payout policy. The results show that profitability, cash holdings, stock
liquidity, and firm life-cycle play an important role in firms' dividend
policy. In addition, growth opportunities and financial leverage are
determinants of dividend policy, whereas firm size and risk do not
exert any effects on dividend decision of a firm.


Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phuang, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

5

1. Gieri thi0

Trong tai chinh doanh nghiep, c6 mot gia dinh lam nen tang cho nhieu nghien ciru
han lam, do la quyet dinh cua nha quan li nham muc tieu toi da hoa tai san cua c8 &Ong.
Cac quyet dinh cua nha quan tri tai chinh cong ty bao gem: Quyet dinh du to va quyet
dinh tai trg. Quyet dinh dau tu lien quan den viec xac dinh lo4i tai san ma cong ty muen
nam giir. Trong khi do, quyet dinh tai trg lien quan den viec xac dinh nguen yen can
thiet de cung cap cho hoat dOng san xuat kinh doanh va hoat Ong &Au to cua cong ty.
Ben canh quyet dinh dau tu va guy& dinh tai tra, quyet dinh chinh sach chi tra ce tirc
ding la mot van de quan trong cua cong ty vi no xac dinh phan Igi nhuan cong ty phan
phei cho ce dong va phan Igi nhuan cong ty giiz lai tai dau tu. Chinh sach ce tut xac
dinh quy mo va each thirc phan phi lgi nhuan cho ce (long theo thoi gian. 118i ding
quan tri se quyet dinh chinh sach co tirc cua cong ty.

a

Quyet dinh chinh sach chi tra co tire t6i uu la mot lira chon Idle khan vi viec chi tra
tac Ong den ca gia tri cua ce dong va co h8i dau tu dm ding ty. Quyet dinh Tau ttr,
quyet dinh tai to. va quy& dinh chi tra ce tire cc') lien quan lan nhau nen nha guar' li
Ichong the ra guy& dinh chi tra ce tirc ma khong xem xet den guy& dinh dau cu va quyet
dinh tai fro. Tren thirc te, cac nha quan II cong ty can nhac rat can than khi lira chon
chit-1h sach ce tirc bai vi ho tin rang guy& dinh nay se anh hueing den gia tri ding ty va
gia tri cua di dong. Ngoai ra, cac nha dau tu rat xem trong chinh sach ce tirc vi ho gop
yen vao cong ty vai ki vong se &roc hoan lai mot so tien nhac dinh nao do trong tuung
lai. Do vay, cac nha quail 11 tinning ra guy& dinh dira tren quan diem la chinh sach ce
tirc c6 tac dOng den gia tri cong ty mac du li thuyet dm Miller va Modigliani (1961) lai
cho ring chinh sach ce tire khong lien quan den gia tri cong ty.
Viet Nam, al kha nhieu nghien ciru xem xet cac yeu to anh htrang den chinh sach
ce tirc dia ding ty, dien hinh nhu: Vo Xuan Vinh (2013, 2015) va To Thi Thanh Trite
(2017), Tran Thi Hai LS'i. va Do Thi Bay (2015), Tran Thi Than Anh (2016), Nguyen
Khac Quec Bao va Nguyen Thi Thiry Linh (2016). Hau het nhting nghien ciru nay phan
tich tac dOng cua quy mo, kha nang sinh Igi, ea h8i tang triromg, don bay tai chinh, mire

do Warn giu tien va rui ro he theng len chinh sach ce tire dm cong ty, tuy nhien, rui ro
dac thu va tinh thanh khoan cua co phieu hien chua dugc xem xet khi nghien ciru ye
chinh sach chi tra ce tut cua cong ty. De danh gia ding quat va toan dien, nghien ciru
nay se xem xet them tac Ong cua rui ro dac tha, tinh thanh khoan cua co phieu va yang


6

Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Plrang, Tap chi Phat trthn Kinh th, 28(9), 04-24

den cong ty den guy& dinh chi tra co tire. Ben canh d6, ngoai cac each xir li du lieu bang
bang mo hinh htn quy Op (Pooled), tae dOng co dinh (FEM) va tat dOng ngau nhien
(REM) da duot sir dung trong nhi:mg nghien ciru truot, trong nghien eiru nay, tac gia se
tie!) can van de nay theo mot hung khae, d6 la sir dung ki thuat hoi quy dugc Fama va
MacBeth (1973) de xuat nham lam phong phu them tai lieu hoc thuAt ve chinh sach co
tire & Viet Nam.
Theo do, nghien ciru nay &rot eau true nhu. sau: Phan 2 trinh bay co' se(' li thuyet va
lugc khdo cac cong trinh nghien ciru thus nghiem c6 lien quan; Du lieu va phucmg phap
nghien ciru duvc mo to trong phan 3; Phan 4 trinh bay ket qua nghien ciru va thao luAn;
va phan 5 ket luAn va ggi 3'T chinh sach.
2. Ccr s& li thuyet va hive klMo cac cong trinh nghien cum thtyc nghiem c6 lien quan
2.1. Ca so li thuy&
Miller va Modigliani (1961) trinh bay mot phan tich ve moi quan he giaa chinh sach
co tire, tang trikmg va dinh gia co phan. Teen co. so cac gia dinh ve thi truemg von hoan
hao (khong c6 thua, khong c6 chi phi giao dich va chi phi dai dien, tit ca moi nguoi deu
c6 thong tin nhu nhau), Miller va Modigliani (1961) dua ra nhAn dinh ve sr khong lien
quan cua et) tire. Trong the gi&i li Wang cua ho, chinh sach dau tu la yeu to quyet dinh
duy nhat den gia tri cong ty. Thong diep ve sit khong lien quan cila Miller va Modigliani
eho rang chinh sach chi tra la mot van de kinh to khong quan trong ma cat nha quail li
c6 the be qua.

Bang each noi long mot se) gia dinh trong mo hinh dia. Miller va Modigliani (1961),
mot so li thuyet da duvc phat trier) nham giai thich cho chinh sach co tire ciia cong ty,
bao Om: Li thuyet ve hieu irng khach hang; chi phi dai dien va li thuyet clang tien to do,
thong tin bAt doi xirng va li thuyet phat tin hieu.
2.1.1. Li thuyt ve hieu ieng khach hang
Nghien ciru Miller va Modigliani (1961) ding ma rOng tranh luAn rang trong thi
truang von khong hoan hao se ton tai viec tra thich co N thong .d'tSi yen cac co phieu chi
tra ce, tire cao c6 the dan den hieu irng khach hang ma trong do, cac nha dau tu se Iva
chon nhang co phieu theo so thich cua ho. Vi the, chinh sach co tire cila mot cong ty co
xu hung thu hitt cac nh6m nha (tau to khac nhau tay thuOc vao cac nha dau tu nay mong
mu& nhAn dirge tong ti suat sinh Igi tren von dau to cira ho nhu the nao. Nhu vAy, hieu


Nguyen TM Ngac Trang & BM Kim Phuang, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

7

img khach hang se xay ra khi chinh sach ca tirc dm ding ty huOng vao se( thich cua nhOm
nha dAu to nhamdat ducrc muc dich gia tang gia tri cong ty.
Tinh thanh khoan va chinh sach co tiro
Do thi truerng bat hoan hao nen cac nha Tau to tin rang mot ca phieu c6 tinh thanh
khoan cao han thi tat hem va thgc ra ura thich co tut mat phAn tiny vao tinh thanh khoan
cua co phieu (Banerjee & cong su, 2007). Cu the, nhang ngueri Warn gat ca phieu kern
thanh khoan se tra thich ca tirc de thod man cho nhu- cau tien mat han la ban ca phieu va
ganh chiu chi phi giao dich. Twang tu, thanh toan ca tirc cho phep nha &Au to giam chi
phi giao dich mot each hieu qua khi tai can bang danh muc cua ho bang each giam nhu
cAu giao dich cac tai san kern thanh khoan. That vay, Bray va cong sir (2005) da thuc
hien mot cu8c khdo sat cac giam dac tai chinh, ket qua cho thay tinh thanh khoan la mot
nhan to quan trong tic Ong den quyet dinh chi tra ea tdc. Dong va cong su (2005) ding
quan diem vai Bray va cong su (2005) khi cho rang cac nha dAu to ca nhan tra thich co

tire mot phan la do chung c6 chi phi giao dich thap han ca phieu. Nhu vay, cave Ii thuyet
va nghien cuu thuc nghiem deu cho rang six bat hoan hao cua thi throng có tic dOnglOn
den guy& dinh chi tra co tirc cua cac ding ty. Khi cac yeti to khac khong dai, cac ding
ty c6 ca phial.' kern thanh khoan se hap can cac nha dau to han do nhu cat' tien mat va
muc tieu tai can bang danh muc. Vi vay, cac ca phieu duac chi tra co tirc nham thod man
nhu cAu cua nha &Au to ye tinh thanh khoan la mot bieu hien caa hieu Crng khach hang.
Thud va chinh sach co tirc
Theo Miller va Modigliani (1961), trong mot the
kh6ng c6 thue, ca &Ong se trung
lap giira ca tire va lai van. Tuy nhien, khi thue suit danh teen lai van thap han thue suit
danh tren thu nhap thong thuerng, ca Tong la nha dAu to duy li se muan nhan thu nhap
duoi hinh thdc lai van han so vii ca tot. Nguerc 14i, khi thue suit danh tren lai von cao
han thue suit danh tren thu nhap thong thu mg, ca &Ong se main nhan thu nhap dtroi
hinh thirc co tire han so veri lai van. Bari vi cac nha dau to ca nhan thu mg c6 thue suit
danh tren thu nhap thong thuOng cao han so \Teri lai yen nen xet ve mat 11 thuyet, cac
cong ty se khong chi tra ea tirc neu ho muan t6i da h6a tai san cho ca Tong. Thay vao
do, cac cong ty se mua lai ca phan de phan phai thu nhap, dieu nay cho phep cac ca &Ong
khong phai thing thue thu nhap cao han doi
tire. Neu vay thi tai sao cac cong ty
van tiep tuc chi tra co tirc bang tien mat trong khi cac ca (long cira ho co thanh qua sau
thud cao han th8ng qua mua lai ca phan?.
Trong nhieu thap ki qua, rat nhieu nghien dru da dugc thuc hien nham tim kiem cac


8

Nguyen Thi Ngoc hang & Bill Kim Phtrong, Top chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

manh ghep con thieu cua birc tranh ma Black (1976) goi la cau do co tirc l. MOt trong
nhting II giai cho cau do co tirc la Ii thuyet su Ira thich ve thud. Nghien ciru dm Farrar

va Selwyn (1967) dugc xem la nghien ciru dAu tier' ve thud va chinh such co tirc.
Cac nghien ciru sau d6 dm Elton va Gruber (1970) va Elton va cong su (1984) tim thy
bang chirng cho rang cac nha dAu to trong khung thud cao tra thich cac co phidu c6 ti
suit co tirc thAp, trong khi cac nha dAu tu trong khung thud thap ua thich cac co phieu
c6 ty' suit c6 tirc cao. Bang chimg nay ling 110 y Wang khach hang co tirc dia. Miller va
Modigliani (1961). Nghien ciru dm Pettit (1977) sir dung mot mo hinh hdi quy bOi de
phan tich vi the danh muc cua cac tai khoan ca nhan cling cho thy cac nha clAu to ca
nhan tre han o trong cac khung thud thAp va cac nha dAu ttr c6 su khac biet clang ke glib
thud suit tinh teen thu nhAp thOng throng va thud suit tinh tren lai von ua thich num giu
nhang co phieu c6 ti suit co tirc cao.
2.1.2. Chi phi dal dien vet li thuyjt ddng tien hr do
Li thuyet clang tien to do gia dinh rang cac cong ty chi tra co tirc de khac phuc van
de dui dien xuAt phut tir su tach biet gitra quyen so huu va quyen kiem soat trong mot
cong ty 16.n c6 quyen sa hitu phan tan. Trong mot cong ty nhir vAy, hAu het cac nha clAu
tu !thong co khi nang hoc dOng ca de giam sat va kiem soat tat ca cac hog dOng cua
ban quan 11. Trong truing hop do, nha quan 11 c6 clOng co. tham gia vao cac hog dOng
ma c6 the khong vi lgi ich tot nhAt cua cac nha du tu.
MOt bieu hien dia dieu nay la khi cac nha quail li c6 mot lugng Ion dong tien nhung
cac ca hOi dAu tu lai han chd. DAu tu qua mirc throng xay ra o cac cong ty c6 mirc &mg
tien tu do cao nhAt. Cac nha quan 11 vi lgi ich ban than se c6 dOng ca dAu tu tien mat du
thira vao cac hoat dOng c6 the lam giam gia tri cong ty. Nhiing hanh &Ong nay bao gom
nhiing dAc quyen khong can thiet hoc mua lai va m& rOng cong ty ma khOng c6 ca
Do do, cac nha nghien ciru thuang goi kich ban nay la van de dAu to qua mirc. MOt giai
phap khi thi cho van de nay la giam lugng tien tu do c6 sun doi ved cac nha quan 11.
Jensen (1986) cho rang chi tra co tilt la mot cach de thuc hien muc tieu nay. Easterbrook
(1984) cling dua ra lAp luAn Wang tu. Theo Jensen (1986), cac nha quan li c6 dOng ca
mo rOng cong ty vugt qua quy mo tdi tru beri vi quy mo lci.n hart clOihOi phai tang ngudn
luc dtroi su kiem soat cua ho. Flan nib., cac khoan luang, throng hay phtic lgi cling se
cao han vi quy mo Lon hon. DOng ca phuc vu ban than nay se khien cac nha quan
' Black (1976) clä ket ludn rang: "Chung to cling nhin vao bite tranh c6 tin thi n6 cang gi6ng nhu mOt cau do, vai nhtng manh

ghdp kh6ng khOp vdi nhau".


Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Biii Kim Phuung, Tap chi Phat trier, Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

9

tu vao nhieu du an ma khong can nhac ki Itrang dan viec du an do c6 kha nang lam giam
gia tri ding ty hoac c6 giA tri hien tai rang (Net Present Value — NPV) am hay khong.
He trAnh su giam sat chat the has cua thi trugng, cac nha quan li khong mu6n tim kiem
ngu6n tai trg ben ngoai de dau to vao cac du. an c6 NPV am ma ho se dua vao nguon
von not 1)8. Su hien din dia dung tin tu do clang ka cho phep cac nha quan li dau tu
quA mirc. Cac nha dau to nhan thirc dugc van de dai dien nay nen ho phan ung tich cut
voi nhirng thong bao tang c6 tire do ki vong vao kha nang dau tu qua mirc se giam xu6ng.
Ham y quan trong nhat cua li thuyat dung tin tu do IA su phan phi tien mat gia tang,
chang han nhu bat dal' chi tra c6 tirc hoac tang c6 tire se lam tang gia tri cong ty do giam
dugc cac van da dau to quA muc tim An. Ngtrot lai, thong bac) giam c6 tuc se tao ra
phan &rig thi trtiong tieu cuc.
2.1.3. Thong tin befit clai xang va li thuy& phat tin hie:u
Tien de dm li thuyet Oat tin hiau la do th8ng tin bat d6i xirng hien hau giaa cac nha
quan li cong ty va thi throng. Viac thay d6i chinh sach chi tra c6 tirc c6 kha nang Oat ra
cac tin hiau ve cong ty va do do lam giam sty bat d6i ximg thong tin nay. Miller va Rock
(1985) phat trian mot mo hinh v6i gia dinh rang nha quan li cong ty biet nhiau han cac
nha dau tu ben ngoai ve ban chat cua thu nhap hien tai cita cong ty. Cac nha guar' li dugc
khuyan khich tang chi tra c6 tirc (hoac giam tai trg tir ben ngoai) \Teri inuc Bich tang gia
c6 phiau throng. Miller va Rock (1985) cho rang cac nha quan li c6 the c6 gang loai bo
nhang bat d6i ximg ton tai. Miller va Rock gan cac cau hoi va chi tra c6 tuc va tai trg tir
ben ngoai vai khai niam c6 tuc rung. Nghia la, mot thong bao tai trg thuc to la mot thong
bao chi tra c6 tirc am. Khai niam nay xem phat hanh c6 phiau ging nhu chi tra c6 tirc
am. Ho cho thay c6 tirc va tai trg là hai mat d6i lap cua ding mot van de. Gia tri c6 tire

rang &rang c6 the dugc xem nhu c6 tire, trong khi gia tri c6 tirc rang am c6 the dugc
xem nhu tai trg. Miller va Rock cho rang mot su thay d6i bat ng6 trong thu nhap co tac
dOng tuang tu len lgi nhuan cong ty nhu mot su thay d6i bat ng& trong chi tra c6 tirc. Ho
kat luan rang thong bao thu nhap, c6 tut va tai trg c6 lien quan chat che. Ngoai ra, xu
huong chi tra c6 tire hien tai la ca so de thi tru6ng du phOng thu nhap trong tuang lai.
Chinh sach c.6 tire la ca so de phat tin hieu v6 thu nhap dugc ki vong trong tuang lai.
Ngoai ra, chinh sach c6 tuc là thy nghi trong khi thong bao thu nhap thi kh8ng. Cac nha
dau to nhan ra rang cac cong ty khong mu6n cat giam c6 thy. Theo do, nha dau tu c6 the
xem mot su gia tang c6 tire nhu mot tin hiau va trien vong thu nhap trong tuang lai cua
cong ty la tich cue.


Nguyen Thi Nguc Trang & BM Kim Phuung, Tap chi Phat tritn Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

10

Rat nhieu nghien ciru da dugc tien hanh trong linh vuc nay nhung giai hoc thuat van
chua c6 dugc dap an hoan chinh cho cau do co tirc. M.Ot khi lugng
cac nghien ciru
cho thAy viec giai quyet van de h8c bila nay khong don gian va cling kh8ng ri5 rang. Co
tire van la mot trong nhang bai toan gai goc nhat trong tai chinh doanh nghiep (Baker &
Ong str, 2002).
2.2. Lvov khao cac nghien ciru thyr nghiem lien quan va xcly clung gia thuye't nghien cast
Co tirc la mot phAn cim lgi nhuan cong ty, do do, co tirc dugc chi tra nhieu hay it
truck tien phu thuOc vao cong ty do host dOng mang lai lgi nhuan cao hay thap. Theo
Amidu va Abor (2006), kha nang sinh Igi cita cong ty la mot nhan to quyet dinh ctaa
chinh sach ca tire. Fama va French (2002) cling iingh8 lap luan nay: Cac cong ty c6 xu
htrong tang chi tra ca tire khi kha nang sinh lgi tang va tranh gift lai Igi nhuan trong cong
ty. Mat khac, theo li thuyet ve chi phi dai dien va &mg tien to do dm Jensen (1986), cac
nha dAu to khong muan cong ty c6 dong tien to do qua cao vi lo sg hien tugng dAu to

qua mirc nen yeu cAu chi tra ca tirc cao hurl khi c6 mirc sinh lgi cao. MM Prang quan
nay dugc tim thay trong cac nghien ciru th%rc nghiem tren thi trtrong mai not Tha Nhi
Ky ctaa Adaoglu (2000) va tren thi tnrimg My dia. Pruitt va Gitman (1991). Do do, trong
nghien ciru nay, gia thuyet H1 dugc tac gia de xuat nhu sau:
Hi: MCfi quan he girea quyjt dinh chi tra cd tirc va khci nang sinh lai cita cong ty la

cling
Do guy& dinh dAu ttr, quyet dinh tai trg va guy& dinh chi tra ca tire thong nhat va
phu thu8c lan nhau nen Ong co chi tra co tirc caa cong ty va mirc ca tirc se phu thuOc
vao tiem nang tang truarng va dAu ttr. Nhieu nghien ciru chi ra cac co h8i tang trizong san
c6 se lam can kiet nguan tien c6 the dugc sir dung de chi tra co tirc cita cong ty nhu:
Faccio va cong six (2001), Gayer va Gayer (1993), Smith va Watts (1992). Theo li thuyet
\tong del cong ty, cac ding ty khOng tang truerng ho# tang truorng chain se tra ca tire
cao vi ho da a trong giai doan truoug thanh. Trong khi do, cac ding ty tang twang cao
co xu huong gift lai hAu het lgi nhuan de giam sir phu thu8c vao nguan tai trg tan kern
tir ben ngoai (Alli & cong sta., 1993). Nguyen nhan la do viec dAu to vao van luan chuyen
can thiet de h8 trg tang truang cao hon &mg tien gia tang do tang twang doanh thu
(Higgins, 1981). Tuy nhien, mai quan he ngugc chieu gifts chi tra co tirc va cac co h8i
tang truoug chi c6 gia tri a cac nude c6 phap lust bao ve manh dai vai cac ca dong
(Mitton, 2004). Tren thuc te, net' cac co d8ng cam thay khong an toan va nghi nger kha
nang chia se lgi nhuan trong Wong lai ctia cong ty thi ho se thich nhan lgi nhuan er hien


Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phming, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

11

tai han bang cach gay ap luc buOc cong ty phai tra c8 tirc bat ke cac ca hOi tang truang
c6 sAn (La Porta & cong sir, 2000). Tai Viet Nam, do thi truOng con nhieu bat on va han
the phap li ve bao ve cac c6 dong thieu s8, tac gia ki vong cac nhA dAu to luon muon

dugc chi tra co tirc cho du cong ty c6 du bao ve cac ca hOi tang truemg cao, do d6, tac
gia de xuat gia thuyet H2 nhu sau:
1-12: Mai quan he gag quye't dinh chi tra ca tac va ca hqi dau tic caa cong ty la nguyc
Theo Jensen va Meckling (1976), cac nhA quail li c6 quyen kiem soat nhieu hcm trong
cac cong ty Ian han vai quyen hal duoc phan tan nhieu han. O cac cong ty nay, cac
co /long it c6 dOng
va kha nang giam sat. Vi the, mirc di) nghiem trong dm van de
dai dien va bat d6i ximg thong tin tang len. Thong qua mot ti le chi tra c8 tirc cao, cac
ding ty co the giri nhilng tin hieu tich cuc cho co &Ong ve trier) \Tong trong twang lai cua
cong ty, thien y ciia ban guar' li va mirc dO mau thuAn dai dien thAp (Lloyd & cong su,
1985). Thien y cila ban guar' li duoc the hien khong chi trong viec chia se lgi nhuan cua
cong ty vai c8 (long ma con trong viec sdn sang chiu su giam sat ciiAthi truerng von khi
nhu cAu ve ngu'on tai trg dr ben ngoai gia tang do mire chi tra co tirc cao (Bhattacharya,
1979). Ca van de giam sat va van de khong thich rui ro deu duoc giam xueing neu cong
ty lien tuc huy dOng van 118 sung tir thi truemg. Trong truemg hop d6, nha cfau to c6 ca
hOi de kiern tra chat the hog &Ong kinh doanh cua cong ty va ban quan li c6 nhieu kha
nang hanh dOng vi lgi ich cua nhA Tau to han (Easterbrook, 1984). Do vay, cac ding ty
16n han vai c8 dong phan tan han se mu8n chi tra c8 tire nhieu han. Gia thuyet tiep theo
la:
H3:

Mai quan he giaa quye't dinh chi tra ca tac va quy ma caa cong ty la cang

Khi nghien ciru ve tac dOng cua cau frac von len chinh sach co tirc, Crutchley va
Hansen (1989) tim thay m8i quan he ngugc chieu gitra ti le ng va chinh sach c8 tirc. Cac
cong ty c6 ti le ng cao se cat giam c8 tirc, mot cach to nguyen hoac dugi ap lirc cua ch6
ng, nham duy tri luo:ng tien mat can thiet cho viec hoan thanh nghia vu vai cho ng
(Agrawal & Jayaraman, 1994; Faccio & cong su, 2001; Gugler & Yurtoglu, 2003).
Ngoai ra, su gia tang rui ro do sir dung nhieu ng lam tang chi phi tai trg tir ben ngoai, vi
vay, cac cong ty se phu thuOc nhieu han vao lgi nhuan gift tai. Han rata, viec chi tra co

tirc thap se lam tang van chi' hiru tren bang can d6i ice toan va cai thien cac ti s8 don
bay, chang han nhu ti se) no tren Von
hoac ti so ng tren tai sari, -Ur do, dO tin nhiem
cua cong ty cling tang len. Viec cai thien nhang ti se) nay se tao dieu kien thuan lgi cho


12

Nguyen Thi Ngnc Trang & BM Kim Phucrng, Tap chi Phat tri6n Kinh ti, 28(9), 04-24

cong ty trong viec gia han ng va giam thieu chi phi tai chinh. Vi the, mei quan he gift
ti le ng va mirc do chi tra c6 tirc dugc ki vong la ngtrgc chieu. Do do, tac gia de xuat gia
thuyet tiep theo nhu sau:
H4:Mai quan he gag quj4t dinh chi tra co tirc va mirc dO sir dung don bay tai chinh
cua cong ty la ngtroc
DeAngelo va cong six (2006) de xuat li thuyet vong dai ve c6 tirc, theo do, trong
nhang nam dau mai thanh lap, cong ty tra c6 tirc it han khi cac ca h6i dau to cao han so
vori von dugc tao ra tix not b6. Ngtrgc 14i, trong nhimg nam sau do, cong ty tra ca tirc
nhieu han de giam thieu kha nang dung tien to do bi Yang phi do van dugc tao ra tir not
ba da cao han cac ca hai dau tu. DeAngelo va cong str (2006) chirng minh li thuyet nay
bang cach sir dung ti s6191 nhuan giir lai tren tong tai san de dal dien cho giai doan vong
dal cua mot cong ty. Nhang nghien ciru sau do cua Fairchild va cong sir (2014), Banyi
va Kahle (2014), Manos va cong six (2012) cling tim thay mai quan he cling chieu gifra
xu huang chi tra c6 tire va yang dai cua cong ty. -Nang tg, nghien ciru nay cling sir dung
ti s6 lgi nhuan gill lai tren tong tai san de dai dien cho vong dai Ira xem xet tac dang cua
no den chinh sach c6 tirc cua cong ty qua viec kiem dinh gia thuyet sau:
H5:Mai quan he giera quyet dinh chi tra ca tac va vong ddi cua cong ty la cling chiti.
Khi nghien eau ve chinh sach c6
cac cong ty a My trong giai dog' 19632003, Banerjee va cong sir (2007) tim thay tinh thanh khoan cua c6 phieu c6 the giai
thich mat phan cho xu huang chi tra ca tdc cua cong ty. O nhang thi truang c6 tinh thanh

khoan cua c6 phieu thap thi nha dau to phai chiu chi phi giao dich cao. Do do, nha dau
to duy li thich ca phieu c6 tinh thanh khoan cao han va dinh gia thap c6 phieu kern thanh
khoan. Theo Ii thuyet hieu ling khach hang, cac cong ty c6 thanh khoan thap c6 xu huang
chi tra c6 tirc nhieu han de gia tang dinh gia cua minh. Nhu \fay, tinh thanh khoan cua
ca phieu Wang quan ngugc chieu vai guy& dinh chi tra co tirc cua cong ty. Bang chirng
thirc nghiem cua Banerjee va cong sir (2007) thong nhat vai ket qua cua Bulan va cong
str (2007) khi cho rang six kien bat dau chi tra c6 tirc xay ra thuang xuyen han a nhang
cong ty kern thanh khodn. Kuo va cong sir (2013), Kale va cong six (2012) cling tim thay
mai quan he ngtrgc chieu c6 y nghia thong ke gitra quyet dinh chi tra c6 tirc va tinh thanh
khoan cua cong ty. Do \fay, gia thuyet H6 dugc de xuat trong nghien ciru nay la:
116: Mai quan he gicra quyAt dinh chi tra ca tirc va tinh thanh khoan cua cd phiju la
nguov
Rui ro cling la mot nhan to quan trong, khi cac bat on trong twang lai tang tang thi


Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phucmg, Tap chi Phat tri'en Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

13

cong ty cang có dOng co. duy tri chinh sach co tirc thAp de lam tam dem cho nhang rui
ro dO. Nhieu nghien ciru cung cap bang chimg ve rnifai quan he nguac chieu girra rui ro
va chinh sach co tirc, cu the: Cac ding ty cang truang thanh thi rui ro cangthap va c8
nhieu dOng ca de chi tra c8 tuc han. Grullon Nth cong su (2002) fang WO lAp luAn nay khi
xem xet cac thong bao tang va giam . cO tirc cfaa cac cong ty niem yet tren NYSE va
AMEX trong giai doan 1982-1993. Grullon va cong su (2002) nhAn thAy t7 cac cong ty
c6 su gia tang ve co tire thi rui ro he thOng cling giam xutang. Ngoai ra, Kulchania (2013)
tim thy ca rui ro he tliOng Ian rah ro dac thia deu CO tac Ong tieu clic len chinh sach chi
tra co tirc cua cong ty. Do dO, tac dOng cua rui ro len chinh sach co tirc se duce kiem
dinh trong nghien ciru nay thong qua gia thuyet sau:
H7:Mcii quan he giira quyjt dinh chi tra co t&c va rid ro la ngtroc

Li va Lie (2006) tim thy mirc dO nim gift tin co tac dOng cling chieu len guy& dinh
chi tra co tirc. Cac nghien ciru khae nhu: de Cesari va Huang—Meier (2015), Bradford va
cong su (2013) cling dua ra cac Vet qua tuang tu. Vi vAy, trong nghien ciru nay, tac gia
dua them nhan to nay vao m8 hinh de kiem dinh tad &Ong cila no len guy& dinh chi tra
CO tire dm cong ty. Gia thuyet tiep theo &lac tac gia de xudt se la:
H8:Moi quan he gicra quye't dinh chi tra co tirc va mire do newt gift- tie'n cfia cong ty
la cling chiu.
Viet Nam, quy mo cong ty, kha nang sinh lgi, ca hOi tang truang, don by tai chinh,
mire dO nAm gift tien va rui ro he thOng da darac xem xet trong cac nghien ciru ye cac
yeu to anh huang den chinh sach co tirc cua cong ty. Tuy nhien, cac ket qua nghien ciru
nay van chara dat duore skr d'Ong thuan. Chang han, trong nghien ciru cala Vo Xuan Vinh
(2013, 2015) va To Thi Thanh Trak (2017), co hOi dau to có tac dOng ngargc chieu den
chinh sach co tire trong khi Tran Thi Hai 14/ va Do Thi Bay (2015), Tran Thi Tun Anh
(2016), Nguyen KhAc QuOc Bao va Nguyen Thi Thily Linh (2016) lai cho rang tac dOng
nay la ding chieu. Ben canh do, nhang nghien ciru nay chua xet den mot s8 }Tau to khac
có kha nang tac dOng den guy& dinh chi tra co tire dm cong ty, bao
Rui ro dac thia,
tinh thanh khoan cUa co phieu va vong do i cong ty. Do do, tac gia guy& dinh dua them
cac y611 to tren vao mo hinh phan tich cho nghien ciru nay.


14

Nguyen Thi Noe Trang & BM Kim Phuung, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh fe, 28(9), 04-24

3. Mr lieu va plurang phOp nghien ciru
3.1. Dir lieu nghien ciru
Mau &rot sir dung trong nghien ciru nay bao g6m 474 cong ty niern ygt tren Sa Giao
dich Chung khoan TP.HCM va Sac Giao dich Chung khoan Ha N8i trong giai doan 20082015. Dili ligu can thu thap bao g6m cac chi tieu teen bang can d6i kg town, cu thg g6m:
T6ng tai san, tong von chu so' hiru, nq dai han, tin va cac khoan Wang &rang tign, lai

nhuan sau thug' chua phan ph6i, chi phi lai vay, Igi nhuan sau thug thu nhap doanh nghigp.
Ngoai ra, can phai thu thap them cac dir lieu tai chinh khac bao g6m: Co tut tin mat
ten m6i c6 phan, gia &mg cira hang ngay cua c6 phigu, VN-Index hang ngay, s6 luvng
c6 phan dang ltru hanh va s8 lugng c6 phan giao dich hang ngay. Du lieu duvc Idy tir
Datastream.
Cac ngan hang va cac to chat tai chinh bi loai khoi phan tich do c6 cau trac tai chinh,
phuung phap town va quan tri doanh nghigp dac bigt. Mau bao g6m ca cac cong ty c6
tra c6 tuc fan khong tra c6 tirc va khong bao g6m cac cong ty bi hi:1y niem ygt. Ngoai ra,
nhirng quan sat di bigt, khong CO tinh dai din cho rnau nghien cuu bi loai 116. Do do,
mau nghign ciru cu6i cling g6m 2.942 quan sat cong ty theo nam.
3.2. Phtrang pith!, nghien caw
HAu hgt cac nghien ciru da duvc thirc hign u Vigt Nam sir dung dirt ligu bang vai mo
hinh h6i quy Op (Pooled), tac Ong c6 dinh (FEM) va tac thing niau nhign (REM),
trong d6, bin phu thu6c la bin lien tuc nhu: Ti lg c6 tiro tin mat tren doanh thu, ti le
c6 tirc tin mat teen lgi nhuan rung hoac ti suat c6 tire... B8n canh d6, nghien ciru gan
day nil& ciia. T6 Thi Thanh Truc (2017) sir dung me hinh logit voi bin phu thu8c nhi
phan dg xem xet cac ygu to anh twang d'gn xac suat chi tra co tire dm ding ty. Mang tir
TO Thi Thanh True (2017), trong nghien ciru nay, tic gia cling sir dung mo hinh logit dg
phan tich quygt dinh chi tra co tirc. Theo do, mo hinh logit dugc sir dung de nghien ciru
vai tr6 cua quy mo cong ty, kha nang sinh lqi, ca h8i tang trugng, don bay tai chinh, mire
d8 Warn giu tign, tinh thank ,khoan elm c6 phigu, yang
cong ty va rui ro trong vigc
giai thich kha Wang chi tra c8 tirc elm cong ty. Cu the, hoi quy logit c6 dang sau:
yit = logit(130 +131R0Ait + 132DAAit + 133MBit + r34SIZEi t + I35LTDAit + f36CASHAit +
137TORit + 08RETAit + I39SYSit + piamoo +
Trong do:


Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Bdi Kim Phuang, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh th, 28(9), 04-24

15

Bien phu thuOc yit la bien nhi phan, nhdn gia tri 1 neu ding ty i c6 tra co tirc trong
nam t va nhdn gia tri 0 neu ding ty i khong tra c6 tirc trong nam t.
Ngoai ra, tac gia se tiep can van de nay bang phucmg phap Fama va MacBeth (1973),
day cling la mot cach de xir li dir lieu bang ngoai cac cach tiep can da neu a tren. Du lieu
bang dugc sir dung kha ph6 bien trong cac nghien elm ve dinh gia tai san va ti sudt sinh
lgi cua danh muc dau tu. Tuy nhi8n, trong cac mo hinh dtt lieu bang, phan du di the bi
tucrng quan gifra cac ding ty dan den cac tro.c lugng he so va sai s6 chudn c6 the bi chech.
Phuarig phap Fama va MacBeth (1973) dugc sir dung uerc Kiang cac he so va sai s6
chuan khi phan du bi tuang quan giva cac quan sat dia cac ding ty khac nhau trong ding
mot nam.

a

Trong cac Wen dOc lap, kha nang sinh Igi thuemg dugc dai di8n bang ti s6 ROA hoac
ROE. Tuy nhien, ket qua dat dugc tuang tu khi sir dung ROE thay vi ROA, do do, tac
gia chi dua ROA vao mo hinh. Ben canh do, trong cac nghien ciru truerc, tot d6 tang
truang doanh thu, t6c d6 tang truang tong tai san hoac ti so gia tri thi truerng teen gia tri
s6 sach thuong doge sir dung lam dai dien cho co. hOi dau tu. Theo Fama va French
(2001), t6c dO tang truerng tong tai san do luerng cac ca hOi dau tu trong hien tai va ti s6
gia tri thi trixong tren gia tri s6 sach do luting cac ca hOi dau to trong twang lai. Vi \Tay,
ca hai Wen nay deu dugc dua vao mo hinh de xem xet anh hugng cua ca hOi &Li tu den
chinh sach c6 tirc dm ding ty. MOt bien dac tinh cong ty ca ban khac la quy mo. Quy
mo cong ty thuemg dugc do bang gia tri so sach ho4c gia tri thi truOng cua tong tai san.
Ngoai ra, Fama va French (2001) de xudt mot cach do quy mo ding ty khac, do la bach
phan vi von 1- ia thi truemg cua ding ty, cach do luong nay có the trung hoa bdt ki mot
tac Ong nao dm tang twang trong quy mo mot cong ty dien hinh qua thoi gian. Do do,
tac gia cling sir dung this&c do nay de dai dien cho quy mo cong ty. Ngoai ra, twang tir
phat hien cda Kuo va Ong su (2013), ti s6 vong quay cling dirge sir dung de dai dien

cho tinh thanh khoan cua c6 phieu trong mo hinh phan tich.
Ben canh do, nghien ciru cua Vo Xuan Vinh (2013), Tran Thi Hai I* va D'6" Thi Bay
(2015) va Tran Thi Tun Anh (2016) con xem xet tac &Ong cda rui ro he th6ng den chinh
sach c6 tirc cua ding ty dugc do bang he s6 beta dia. co phieu. Tuy nhien, cac nghien
ciru nay chua xet den anh huerng cua rui ro dac thii. Do do, ngoai nhang yeu to tren, tac
gia se dua ca rui ro he thong va rui ro dac thii (theo dinh nghia cua Hoberg & Prabhala
(2009) vao mo hinh.
Ngoai ra, dua theo nhang nghien ciru truerc, tac gia con phan tich tac dOng cua don


Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phuung, Tap chi Phat triL Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

16

by tai chinh, vong deli ding ty va mirc di) nam gift tin len guy& dinh chi tra co tirc.
Tom lai, cac bin dOc lap trong mei hinh chrgc dinh nghia nInr trong Bang 1.
Bang 1
Dinh nghia cac bin ducc sir dung trong mo hinh
Ki hieu

Bien

ROA;,

Kha nang sinh
Igi

MBit

Daft ki

Lai nhuan rang + Chi phi lai vay
TOng tai san binh quan
—

Gia tri thi trtrang ciia tong tai sane
Gia tri so sach cita tong tail san

—

Ti le thay d6i tong tai san cria cong ty qua hai nam lien
tiep

Co. hOi tang
truing
DAAit

SIZEit

Dinh nghia

vong

Quy m6 cong

Bach phan vi von h6a thi trtrang cda cong ty

tY

LTDAit

Dan bay tai
chinh

Ng clai han
TOng tai san

CAShAit

Mtic d6 nam
gift tien

Tien va cac khoan twang dung tien
Tong tai san

TORit

Tinh thanh
khoan dm CO
phieu

RETAit

\Tong dai
cong ty

—

KhOi Mang co phan giao Bich binh quan
KhOi hromg co ph5n dang hru har) binh quail.

nhuan gift. lai
TOng tai san
Rui ro he thong — DO Lech chuan ctia gia tri &roc du bao

SYSi,

tir h6i quy ma hinh thi truing
Rui ro
Rui ro dac this — De Lech chuan cua phan du tit hei quy

ma hinh thi twang

2 Gia tri thi truing cOa tong tai san = Gia tri so sach cua tong no + Gia tri thi attain ctia von chil sa hat'. Trong do, Gia tri thi
trudng cda von chi) sa haft = Gia co phieu vac) ngay giao dich cuOi ding trong nam x SO Itrang co OIL) dang loft hanh.


Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Bui Kim Phuung, Tap chi Phat tri'en Kinh th, 28(9), 04-24

17

4. Ket qui nghien cum vi thin lu'in
Bang 2 trinh bay gia tri trung binh, trung vi va dO Lech chuan cita cac bien duck sir
dung trong mo hinh. Bang 3 trinh bay tucmg quan giira cac Hen dOc lap. Ket qua Bang
3 cho thy tucmg quan cap gift tat ca cac bien dOc lap khong cao. He s6 tuong quan cao
nit& la giira rui ro he thOng (SYS) vari rui ro d*ac thu (IDIO) la 0,680, va gitra \tong deri
cong ty (RETA) viii kha rang sinh Igi (ROA) la 0,668. Do do, hien tugng da cong tuyen
có the khong xay ra trong mo hinh.
Bing 2
ThOng ke mo to cac Hen

Bien

S6 quan sat

Gia tri trung binh

Trung vi

Do kch chuan

ROA

2.942

8,471

7,482

7,935

DAA

2.942

7,379

6,999

20,395

MB

2.942

1,216

0,964

1,145

SIZE

2.942

50

50

28,834

LTDA

2.942

9,143

2,917

13,439

CASHA

2.942

9,046

5,242

10,550

TOR

2.942

0,325

0,136

0,493

RETA

2.942

5,325

4,320

10,386

SYS

2.942

0,299

0,262

0,160

IDIO

2.942

0,013

0,012

0,005


18

Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & Bui Kim Phuong, Tap chi Phat tritn Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

Bing 3
Ma tr4n ttrang quan giita cac bian dOc lap
ROA

DAA

MB

SIZE

LTDA

CASHA

TOR

RETA

DAA

0,315

MB

0,416

0,136

SIZE

0,156

0,208

0,214

LTDA

-0,128

0,121

-0,048

0,347

CASHA

0,273

0,017

0,109

-0,061

-0,218

TOR

-0,138

0,028

-0,092

-0,037

-0,032

-0,118

RETA

0,668

0,250

0,299

0,142

-0,129

0,301

-0,169

SYS

-0,215

-0,131

-0,151

-0,244

-0,062

-0,021

0,004

-0,209

IDIO

-0,166

-0,03 I

-0,068

-0,351

-0,012

-0,115

0,144

-0,239

SYS

0,680

Bang 4 trinh bay kat qua hai quy -logit. Cac hE .s6 dtrac bao cap la cac gia tri trung
binh chugi theyi gian theo Oman phap Fama va MacBeth (1973) dm cac hE so logit
cheo hang nam. Cac con so trong dau ngo4c don la gia tri thOng ke t turang frng..M8 hinh
(1) bao gom cac bin d'ac tfnh cong ty co ban nhtr quy mo cong ty, kha nang sinh lai va
co hOi tang trtrang. Mo hinh (2), (3), (4), (5) va (6) Fan ltrat dtra them cac bin dai din
cho don by tai chinh, mfrc dO Kam gift tian, tinh thanh khoan cua co phiau, yang dai
cong ty va rui ro.
KEt qua nghian cfru cho thy phap lon cac Nan trong m6 hinh coy nghia thong ke va
mang dung dAti ki Ong. Trong do, ROA coy nghia thOng ke a mix 1% trong tat ca cac
m8 hinh. K6t qua nay Wang dOng vai phat hiEn cua To Thi Thanh Truc (2017),
Benavides va cong su (2016), TrAn Thi Tun Anh (2016), de Cesari va Huang-Meier
(2015), Vo Xuan Vinh (2015), Banyi va Kahle (2014). Ben canh dO, mot dai din cho
ca hOi dau to cua cong ty bin MB, coy nghia thong ke trong ca 5 mo hinh (2), (3), (4),
(5) va (6). Nhu vay, kat qua ung hO de xuAt cua Fama va French (2001) khi ciing cho
rang cac cong ty c6 kha nang sinh lai tot hon veri co hOi d'A.0 to it hon có nhiau kha nang
chi tra co tfrc hon. Tuy nhion, you to quy mo lai khong c6 tac dOng den chinh sach co
tat dm cong ty.3

Khi lay gia tri thi trutmg lam dai dii n cho quy and Ong ty, yeu to nay van ichong c6 tac dOng den guyet dinh chi tra c6 tirc.


Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phuang, Tap chi Phat tri6n Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

19

Bang 4

Phan tich 116i quy logit ve quy6t dinh chi tra co tirc cua cong ty
ROA

DAA

MB

SIZE

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

0,021***

0,020***

0,018***

0,017***

0,012***

0,011***

(5,041)

(4,927)

(4,766)

(4,704)

(3,673)

(3,527)

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

(-0,845)

(-0,648)

(-0,617)

(-0,310)

(-0,680)

(-0,868)

-0,024

-0,026*

-0,035**

-0,041***

-0,046***

-0,045**

(-1,784)

(-1,917)

(-2,671)

(-3,534)

(-3,715)

(-3,430)

0,000

0,000

0,001

0,001

0,000

0,001

(0,003)

(0,955)

(1,241)

(0,960)

(0,674)

(1,002)

-0,002***

-0,002**

-0,002**

-0,002**

-0,002**

(-3,707)

(-3,052)

(-3,254)

(-2,909)

(-2,924)

0,005***

0,006*"

0,005***

0,004***

(6,589)

(6,005)

(5,237)

(4,501)

-0,125***

-0,118***

-0,116***

(-6,117)

(-6,161)

(-6,025)

0,008***

0,008***

(6,100)

(6,448)

LTDA

CASHA

TOR

RETA

SYS

-1,279
(-0,874)

IDIO

-0,342
(-0,013)

Hang so

0,567***

0,578***

0,542***

0,604***

0,627***

0,763***

(10,740)

(11,047)

(10,058)

(11,125)

(11,991)

(12,029)

Ghi chit: *,**,*** Ian loot ttrcmg irng vdi cac mat 5inglila thong Ice 10%, 5%, 1%

MO hinh (2), (3), (4), (5) va (6) xem xet them tie dOng dm don by tai chinh len kha
nang chi tra co tirc cua cong ty ngoai cac dac tinh cong ty co. ban teen. Ke't qua cho thy


20

Nguyen Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phucrng, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

Wen dai dien dm don by tai chinh coy nghia thOng ke trong ca 5,mo hinh. Dieu nay c6
nghia la cac cong ty dung no. cang nhieu thi xac suat chi tra co tirc cang thap, thong
nit& vai nghien ciru cua Tran Thi Tun Anh (2016), Vo Xuan Vinh (2013), Bradford va
Ong six (2013), Kuo va cong su (2013) va Kulchania (2013).
BEn canh do, mat dO Warn giix tien c6 anh huemg dang ke den chinh sach co tirc cua
cong ty. Cu the, mOi quan he gitra yeu to nay vai quyat dinh chi tra co tirc la cling chieu
va coy nghia thOng ke a mirc 1%, nghia la cac cling ty c6 mire dO nam giu tien cang cao
thi xac suat chi tra co tirc cang cao. Ket qua nay ding duvc tim thy trong nghien ciru
dm To Thi Thanh Truc (2017), Vo Xuan Vinh (2015), Banyi va Kahle (2014) va
Bradford va cong su (2013).
Ngoai ra, ket qua hOi quy con cho thy he so cua ti so vong quay la am va coy nghia
6. mix 1%. Nhu vdy, tinh thanh khoan cua co phieu co twang quan nguvc chieu Arai xac
swat chi tra co tirc. Ket qua nay ling hOcla xudt cua Banerjee va cong su (2007) khi cling

cho ring a nhimg cong ty ma co phieu c6 tinh thanh khoan thdp thi xac suat chi tra co
tire cao va ngtrac lai.
MO hinh (5) va (6) cho thy Ong dai cong ty c6 tac dOng cung chieu len chinh sach
chi tra co tirc cua cong ty. Ket qua nay thOng nhdt vai nghien elm cua Banyi va Kahle
(2014), Fairchild va cong su (2014), Manos va cong su (2012). Theo do, cac cong ty khi
da chuyen sang giai doan truerng thanh c6 nhieu kha nang chi tra co tire han so vai cac
cong ty a trong nhang giai doan dau cua yang dai.
MO hinh (6) xem xet them vai tro cua cac bien rui ro trong viec giai thich chinh sach
co tirc cua cong ty. Ket qua cho thay ca rui ro he thOng lan rui ro ddc thin deu mang dAu
am, dung nhu ki vong, tuy nhien, cac he so nay lai khong coy nghia thong ke. Do d6,
yeu to rui ro khong c6 anh huerng gi den xac suat chi tra co tirc cua cong ty.
T6m lai, thOng nhAt vai cac nghien cite truck, xac suat chi tra co tirc cua cong ty tang
len cling vai kha Wang sinh Igi, mire dO flan' gift tien va vong dai cong ty. Nguvc lai, xac
suat chi tra co tire c6 mOi quan he nguac chieu vai cac ca hOi tang truang, don by tai
chinh va tinh thanh khoan cua c6 phieu. Trong khi d6, hai yeu to quy mo cong ty va rui
ro khong c6 tac dOng den guy& dinh chi tra co tire cua cong ty.
Ngoai ra, dug teen ket qua uerc luting mo hinh (6), tac dOng logit bien trung binh dirge
tinh toan de xem xet y nghia kinh to cua mot so Wen giai thich. Kat qua cho thy khi
ROA va RETA tang 1% thi xac suat chi tra co tirc cua cong ty ding tang 1%. Twang tu,
khi mire dO Warn gift tien tang 1% thi xac suat chi tra co tire cua cong ty tang 0,5%.


Nguy& Thi Ngoc Trang & BM Kim Phuang, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh re, 28(9), 04-24

21

Ngtro.c lai, khi TOR tang 1% thi xac sudt chi tra c6 tire dia cong ty lai giam 11%.
Bang 5

Tac dOng logit bien trung binh cua cac Nen

[Khoang tin cay 95%]

dy/dx

Sai so chuan

z

P>z

ROA

0,010

0,003

3,330

0,001

0,004

0,016

CASHA

0,005

0,002

2,810

0,005

0,002

0,008

TOR

—0,111

0,043

—2,580

0,010

—0,195

—0,027

RETA

0,010

0,002

4,910

0,000

0,006

0,013

5. Ket 1u4n NIA goi y chinh sach

Nghien ciru nay nhAm xac dinh cac yeu to quan trong anh huong den chinh sach c6
tat cua cac cong ty phi tai chinh niem yet tren Thi truing Chirng khoan Viet Nam trong
giai clop 2008-2015. Ket qua thuc nghiem cho thy kha nang sinh lgi, mire dO nam gift
tien va \Tong dai cong ty c6 tic dOng tich cue len quyet dinh chi tra c6 tire. Ngtrac 14i, co'
hOi tang truang, don by tai chinh va tinh thanh khoan cua c6 phieu c6 tic dOng tieu cgc
len chinh sach chi tra c6 tire ctia cong ty. Trong khi do, quy mo cong ty va riti ro lai
khong c6 anh huang den chinh sach c6 tire dm cong ty.
Tai Viet Nam, do c6 sir bdt d6i xirng thOng tin gift nha dAu to va nhiing ngtrai trong
not 1)0 cong ty nen chinh sach c6 tire la mot trong nhang ngu6n thong tin quan trong anh
huang den guy& dinh cita cac nha dAu tu. Nghien ciru nay giup cho nha dAu to hieu ro
han ve chinh sach c6 tirc cita cac cong ty. Tir do, ho c6 the du bao chinh xac han ve
chinh sach chi tra c6 tire va dtra ra quyet dinh cua mInh. Cu the, t7 mot cong ty c6 kha
nang sinh lai, mirc dO nAm gift tien va ti 1e Igi nhudn gift lai tren tong tai san cao, ding
nhu c6 it ca hOi dAu tu., mirc dO sir dung ng va tinh thanh khoan cita c6 phiau thdp, chinh
sach c6 tire doge du bd.° se on dinh han va là mot tin hiO clang tin city han so Arai nhang
cong ty ichong c6 cac d:ac di&n nay


22

Nguyen Thi Nguc Trang & BM Kim Phuong, Top chi Phat trier' Kinh te, 28(9), 04-24

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