Ảnh hưởng của lạm phát đến TTCK Việt Nam

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<b>hihig khoan </b>

<b>DIEN DAN CHLTNG KHOAN </b>

<b>ANH HVONG </b>

<b>CUA LAM PHAT </b>

<b>DEN TTCK VIET N A M </b>

T H S . P H A M N G U Y E N H O A N G

Ly thuyet va thirc tien

<b>T R U N G T A M N C K H - OTCK </b>

<b>L </b>

trong nhiing ehi am phat la mdt
bao kinh te vi md
quan trpng nhat
va thudng xuyen dupe
sii dung trong phan
tich kinh te. Tac dpng
ciia lam phat dien ra
rat rdng ddi vdi nhieu
linh vuc va thi trudng
ehiing khoan (TTCK)
eung khdng phai la
ngoai le.

That vay, trong
phan tich chiing khoan
ndi chung khdng the

thieu nhiing phan tich ve anh

hudng ciia lam phat den cung
-cau phat hanh va giao dich
chiing khoan, nhat la ehiing
khoan cd thu nhap ed dinh. Ddng
thdi, gia tri cac khoan dau tu
ehiing khoan ludn bi anh hudng
true tiep bdi dien bien cua lam
phat va day la mdt trong nhiing
<i>nii ro ca ban trong dau tu chiing </i>
khoan ndi chung. Hoat ddng san
xuat kinh doanh ciia eae doanh
nghiep niem yet - xuong sdng
cua TTCK - eung chiu tac ddng
true tiep va gian tiep ff cac miic
dp khac nhau bdi lam phat; va
dieu nay den lupt nd se gay ra
bien ddng gia cd phieu niem yet
tren thi trudng.

<b>tam phat co the tac dpng tn/c tiep den tam ly nha dau hj vd gia tri </b>
<b>cua cac khodn dau tu tren TTCK. </b>

<i>Anh Bdo Hdn </i>

Tren eff sd dd, bai viet nay
tap trung vao tim hieu a n h
hudng ciia lam phat den TTCK
dudi mdt sd gde dp eff ban lien
quan den eung cau va hanh vi
dau tu cd phieu. Phuong phap

phan tich la ap dung cac ly
thuyet kinh te va kiem chiing
trong thuc te dien bien TTCK
Viet Nam. Thdi ky dupe xet tir
2007 den nay la giai doan lam
phat "hoanh hanh" va dien bien
ngoai tam kiem soat tai nhieu
thdi diem di kem vdi su suy
giam dang ke eiia TTCK trong
nudc.

Trudc het, can phai diem lai
dien bien ciia lam phat trong
tuong quan vdi TTCK trong thdi

ky nay. Cd the chia ra
lam 4 giai doan khac
nhau tuong ling vdi cac
chinh sach md rdng hay
t h a t chat ve tien te
va/hoac tai khda va lam
phat leo thang hay dupc
kiem che.

<i>Giai doan 1 tii trudc </i>
<i>cho den niia dau nam </i>
<i>2007. Trong giai doan </i>

nay, chinh sach tien te
(CSTT) duffc ndi long

qua miic khien eung tien
trong luu thdng tang vpt.
Ddng thdi chinh sach tai
khda Cling md rdng theo. Tuy
nhien, tinh trang "nhap khau"
lam phat va hieu qua dau tu
thap trff nen rat rd trong thdi ky
nay, chiing td nen kinh te khdng
hap thu dupc ngudn cung tien
Idn va mdt phan dang ke ngudn
vdn dupe chuyen sang dau tu
vao eae linh vuc khdng san xuat
va tieu diing. He qua la lam
phat tang len miie cao nhat
trong vdng 7 nam ke tif 2001
(8,3%) trong khi TTCK trd nen
qua ndng vdi viec chi sd VN
Index lien tue tang, vupt qua
miic 1.100 diem va trd thanh
dinh cao n h a t trong lich sii
TTCK Viet Nam cho den nay.

<i>Giai doan 2 tii nua cuoi 2007 </i>

<b>56 </b>

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<b>DIEN DAN CHlTNG KHOAN </b>

<i>den niia dau 2008 la giai doan </i>

that chat tien te. Bien phap
chinh sach ciia cac co quan quan
ly la kiem soat lam phat thdng
qua viee dieu hanh va kiem soat
tang tdng phuong tien thanh
toan; dam bao tang trudng tin
dung mue tieu va sau dd tin hieu
rd nhat cho chinh sach nay la
viee nang lai suat cff ban len
14%/nam vao thang 6/2008. Tuy
nhien, trong khi CSTT dupe that
chat thi boat ddng tai khda van
khdng cd dau hieu co lai, tham
chi tiep tue tang khien cho ap
luc lam phat va lai suat khdng
giam di. Hien tupng nay dudng
nhu diing vdi ly thuyet kinh te
cho rang mue tieu chinh sach
that chat tien te la lam giam lai
suat, song do chinh sach tai
khda lai md rdng nen muc tieu
nay se bi triet tieu va trd nen
khd thue hien; ly do la vi tai
khda mff rdng se ed hieu ling lam
tang lai suat. Do vay, xu hudng
leo thang ciia lam phat van tiep
tuc va da trd thanh dinh diem
tdi gan 23% cho nam 2008 - miic
ky luc ve lam phat trong nen
kinh te trong nhieu nam qua.

<b>iDipsg!iE9cmipfẩ]^^ </b>

<b>r </b>

<i>wBCo the noi </i>

<i>anh hudng cua </i>

<i>dim bien lam phdt </i>

<i>den rrCJC tai Viet </i>

<i>J^am trong 4 nam </i>

<i>qua Id hodn todn </i>

<i>mang tinh khdch </i>

<i>quan vd phu hap </i>

<i>vOi cdc quy luat </i>

<i>thi tnfOtig. </i>

9,19

-Lam phat (%]

Trai nguffc vdi giai doan trudc,
diln bien ciia TTCK Viet Nam
da diu dan siic ndng, ehi so VN
Index bat dau rdi khdi mdc cao
ky luc ff giai doan trudc va
chuyen sang thdi ky giam sau.

<i>Giai doan 3 tii niia cudi 2008 </i>
<i>den cuoi nam 2009 chiing kien </i>
<i>chinh sach noi long trff lai ca </i>

<i>tien te va tai khoa. Day la giai </i>

doan kha dac biet khi cac doanh
nghiep Viet Nam da trai qua
thdi ky khd khan tii chinh sach
that chat tien te ciia giai doan
trudc va thi trudng qudc te bi
thu hep do tac ddng ciia cudc
khiing hoang tai chinh khdi
phat tu My vao thang 9/2008.
Trong bdi canh nay, lai suat eff
ban da dupc giam xudng mdt
niia (cdn 7%/nam tii dau 2009)
va Chinh phii ehii truffng thuc
hien 3 gdi kich cau: Gdi 1 - Hd
trff 4% lai suat cho cac khoan
vay san xuat va luu thdng hang
hda; Gdi 2 - Hd trp 4% lai suat
cho eae khoan vay dau tu mdi
cho phat trien san xuat kinh
doanh, cff sd ha tang; va Gdi 3
-Hd trff 1009^ lai suat cho cac
khoan vay mua sam may mdc,
thiet bi eff khi phuc vu san xuat
va che bien ndng nghiep. Do dp
tre eiia chinh sach that chat tien
te ff giai doan trudc cdng vdi viec
kiem soat tdt du np tin dung va

tdng phuong tien thanh toan

dudi miie mue tieu, ket qua eiia
viee thuc thi cac chinh sach ndi
tren kha thanh cdng vdi viec lam
phat nam 2009 da dupfc khdng
che va giam manh xudng chi cdn
6,88% va van dat dupe chi tieu
tang trudng GDP dii d miic thap
5,32%. Mat khac, cac chinh sach
nay ciing kip thdi giiip tinh hinh
san xuat kinh doanh ciia eae
doanh nghiep trong nude dii siic
chdng chpi vdi suy thoai kinh te.
Cd le chinh vi dieu nay nen mot
sd nha quan sat qudc te da td ra
an tupng trudc kha nang ling
phd trudc "khiing hoang tai
chinh the gidi 2008" ciia Viet
Nam. Tinh den dau quy
rV/2009, TTCK nhd vay da hdi
phuc va tang trudng 165% ddi
vdi ehi sd VN Index (tii 235,5
diem ngay 24/2/2009 len 624,1
diem ngay 22/10/2009) va 179%
ddi vdi ehi sd HNX-Index (cac
chi so tuong ling la 78,06 va
218,38 diem).

<i>Giai doan 4 tii cuoi nam 2009 </i>
<i>den nay dien ra viee thu hep </i>

CSTT. Cac gdi hd trp lai suat da
dupc cham diit va lai suat CP ban
<i>da hai lan dixac nang len: </i>
8%/nam (tii 1/12/2009) va
9%/nam (tii 5/11/2010). Cac loai
lai suat chinh khac cung duffc
dieu chinh tang manh. Ngoai ra,

<b>57 </b>

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<b>L IW^^BIlHhMi^lMli!!! </b>

<b>DIEN DAN CHUFNG KHOAN </b>

eff quan quan ly cdn tiep tue dieu
chinh ky ban va khdi lupng bffm
tien qua nghiep vu thi trudng
md (bat dau thue hien tii giiia
thang 10/2010) de kiem soat va
ban che bdt ddng tien dd vao nen
kinh te. Day rd rang la eae bien
phap nham thu hep tien te de
hudng tdi muc tieu kiem che lam
phat khi ma chi bao nay (CPI)
da tang len tdi tren 9% binh
quan nam 2010. Mae dii da
cham diit eae bien phap ndi Idng
tien te - tai khda tif giai doan
trudc va thue hien thu hep tien
te, nhung do tang trudng tin

dung van cao (29,81% tinh den
31/12/2010, vufft qua muc tieu
25%), ddng thdi tang trudng
tdng phuong tien thanh toan
nam 2010 cung ff miic cao so vdi
tang trudng GDP (25,3% so vdi
6,78%) va mdt sd nguyen nhan
khac, nen chi sd lam phat van
tang va da vUfft len miic hai eon
sd la 11,75%. Trong bdi canh
lam phat cao nhu vay, giao dich
tren TTCK khdng cdn siic tang
manh nhu nam trudc, trai qua
nhung dien bien tang giam that
thudng va nhin chung sut giam.
Dien bien va quan he giua
lam phat va TTCK Viet Nam
qua 4 giai doan neu tren tii 2007
den nay ed the

quan sat va so
sanh ff hai bieu
do 1 va 2.

Qua dien
bien 4 giai doan
nhu tren, ed the
n i t ra mdt so
tuong quan rd
ret chung nhat

giua lam phat va
TTCK tai Viet
Nam thdi gian
qua nhu sau:

Khi lam phat tang cd miic dp
trong bdi canh cung tien tang
manh va md rdng chi tieu Chinh
phii thi TTCK tang trudng ndng;
khi lam phat tang qua cao vupt
qua tam kiem soat trong bdi
canh that chat tien te thi TTCK
lai suy giam nhanh. O trang
thai ngupc lai, khi lam phat
giam trong bdi canh thue thi
CSTT va tai khda ndi long thi
TTCK tang trudng trd lai. Cudi
Cling, ff trang thai trung tinh,
khi lam phat tang cd miic dp
nhung khdng den miie qua cao
va trong mdi trudng thu hep tien
te thi TTCK se "ludng lu" va
eung trong xu the thu hep.

De cd eff sd rd hffn ve van de
nay, chiing ta ed the ap dung
mdt sd ly thuyet kinh te sau de
giai thich cho anh hudng eiia
lam phat den TTCK Viet Nam.
Nham dffn gian hffn trong phan

tich, ed the gidi ban trong viec
nghien ciiu anh hudng eiia mdi
trudng lam phat tang (khdng xet
lam phat giam) den giao dich
tren TTCK nhu the nao. Theo y
nghia nay, ed 3 cff che khien cho
lam phat cd the anh hudng
manh den eung cau va hanh vi
giao dich ehiing khoan tren thi
trudng.

<i>TAii' nhat, lam phat anh </i>
hudng gian tiep den TTCK
thdng qua tac ddng den tinh
hinh san xuat hang hda, dich vu
eiia eae doanh nghiep ndi chung
va cac doanh nghiep niem yet
ndi rieng. Lam phat la bieu hien
cua su tang len va keo dai eiia
miic gia ca chung trong nen kinh
te; va mdt trong nhiing nguyen
nhan dan tdi lam phat la do chi
phi tang cao (lam phat ehi phi
day). Do vay, lam phat tang
thudng ddng nghia vdi viec chi
phi dau vao cho boat ddng san
xuat kinh doanh ciia eae doanh
nghiep tang len. Vi du, lam phat
khien chi phi lai vay ciia doanh
nghiep dat dd hem bdi vi cac td

chiie cho vay nhu ngan hang
thuong mai da phai nang lai
suat huy ddng len de dam bao
lai suat thuc duong cho ngudi
giii tien. Khi ehi phi san xuat
tang cao, gia thanh cac san
pham, dich vu eiia doanh nghiep
se phai tang theo de dam bao
san xuat - kinh doanh hoac co
Ipi nhuan. Tuy nhien, siic tieu
thu san pham - dich vu ciia
doanh nghiep se sut giam do gia
ban cao, dac biet trong ngan ban
va khi ngudi tieu diing tim tdi
eae san pham thay the. Dieu nay

<b>Giai doan </b>
<b>Lam phdt lang va noi long </b>

<i><b>qud rniic tien te-tdi kliod JI </b></i>

<b>Giai doqn 2: </b>
<b>Lam plidt cao ky luc </b>

<b>vd that chql tien te </b>

<b>Giai doqn 4: </b>
<b>Lqm phdt tdng cao </b>

<b>vd lien le Ihu hep </b>

<b>2009 </b>

<b>58 </b>

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<b>DIEN DAN CHUfNG KHOAN </b>

<b>hdngklioAn </b>

<b>tqm phdt tdng cao, tdm ly nhd dau tu tren TTCK </b>
<b>cung bj dnh huang nghiem trpng vd TTCK se khong </b>
<b>con Id mot dja chi thu hut vdn dau tu. </b>

<i>Anh Khdnh Thy </i>

khien cho Iffi nhuan mue tieu
ciia doanh nghiep khd dupe dam
bao va tham ehi sut giam, dan
tdi loi nhuan ky vpng cua doanh
nghiep trong tUffng lai bi dinh
gia thap. Ket qua la gia cd phieu
ciia doanh nghiep niem yet tren
thi trudng hi anh hudng theo
hudng suy giam vdi eae miie dp
khac nhau. Neu lam phat cang
tang manh thi he qua nay dien
ra cang nhanh va gia cd phieu
cang bi anh hudng manh. Neu
lam phat tang qua cao lai dien
ra trong mdi trudng CSTT - tai

khda that chat thi hau qua cdn
nang ne hon vi thanh khoan
tren thi trudng bi co hep dang ke
do ludng vdn luu thdng tren thi
trudng sut giam. Dieu nay tren
thue te da dien ra rd nhat trong
nam 2008 (ling vdi giai doan 2
neu tren). Trong bdi canh lam
phat len tdi miic hai eon sd ky
lue nhu tren, cac doanh nghiep
gap rat nhieu khd khan do thieu
vdn dau tu va thi trudng bi thu
hep. Do vay, ket qua kinh doanh

ciia cac doanh nghiep
niem yet trong quy II va
quy III/2008 thap hffn rat
nhieu so vdi ciing ky nam
2007, d i n tdi gia ed phieu
sut giam manh tren thi
trudng.

<i>Thii hai, lam phat ed </i>

the tac ddng true tiep den
tam ly nha dau t u va gia
tri eiia cac khoan dau t u
tren TTCK. Lam p h a t
tang la mdt trong nhiing
bieu hien bat dn eiia nen

kinh te. Do vay, lam phat
tang cao ed the dan tdi
nguy eff khiing hoang
niem tin vao nen kinh te,
nhat la khi Chinh phii td
ra bat luc trong viee kiem
che lam phat leo thang. Trong
mdi trudng nay, tam ly nha dau
t u tren TTCK cung bi anh
hudng nghiem trpng va TTCK
se khdng cdn la mdt dia chi thu
hiit vdn dau tu bdi nd cung
chinh la mdt "phong vu bieu"
ciia nen kinh te. Neu dieu nay
xay ra, se xuat hien "tam ly bay
dan" trong viec ban thao cd
phieu do

nhu giii tiet kiem do lai suat da
dupe tang de dam bao lai thue
tren he thdng ngan hang, hoac
so vdi dau t u vao vang do siic
tang gia ciia vang Idn hon vdi
vai trd la "noi t n i an" an toan
trong mdi trudng bat dn kinh te.
Cd le hien thuc nay da dien ra
ling vdi giai doan 4 neu tren vdi
nhiing bieu bien rat rd nhu lam
phat tang dang ke, lai suat tren
thi trudng tien te tang cao, gia

vang leo len cac miic ky lue lich
sii va TTCK nhin chung di
xudng. Neu chua ke den cac yeu
to' kinh te khac cd tac ddng n h u
anh hudng ciia thi trudng the
gidi, cung tien, tinh chat miia
vu..., nhung dien bien tren rd
rang chiu anh hudng ciia mdi
trudng lam phat va dien ra phii
hop vdi cac quy luat kinh te.

<i>Thiiba, lam phat tang cao se </i>

anh hudng den TTCK thdng qua
con dudng thuc thi CSTT that
chat nham kiem che lam phat.
Cd the xem xet anh hudng nay
trudc bet vdi trai phieu theo md
hinh dinh gia trai phieu nhu
sau:

<i><b>Pi </b></i> <b>-1 </b>

<i>C-</i> <b>_c,</b>

<i>: 1 + YTyr> </i>

k h u n g
b o a ' n g

niem tin. Hau qua se la cung ed
phieu Idn gap nhieu lan so vdi
cau va thi trudng dien ra tinh
trang kem thanh khoan nghiem
trpng. Dieu nay cang trd nen
hien thuc khi cac nha dau tu
cam thay su m a t m a t tren
TTCK do gia tri cac khoan vdn
dau tu vao chiing khoan ciia hp
da bi giam di ve mat gia tri
tuong ddi so vdi mdi trudng khi
lam phat chua tang. Su trd treu
trong hoan canh nay la TTCK
cang trd nen kem hap dan hffn
so Vffi cac hinh thiic dau t u khac

:i + rr.'.i'' <b>-T + </b>

<i>p. </i>

<i>1 + YT:.V<^ </i> <b>1 + VT.'./1 </b>

<i>Trong do: </i>

PQ : Gia trai phieu dau ky
Pjj: Gia ban trai phieu cudi
k y n

C„: Lai suat coupon thdi ky n
YTM: Lpi suat khi dao ban

ciia trai phieu

Khi cff quan quan ly trien
khai CSTT that chat trong mdi
trudng lam phat, miie lai suat
chung tren thi trudng ed xu
hudng tang. Dieu nay dan tdi
yeu cau va thuc te lpi suat khi
dao ban (YTM) ciia trai phieu
tang theo. Do quan he nghich

<b>59 </b>

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<b>hung Mioan </b>

<b>DIEN DAN CHUfNG KHOAN </b>

<i>Trong moi tixtang lam. phdt tdng cao, giao </i>

<i>dich tren TTC-K nhin chung bi dnh hudng theo </i>

<i>huOng tieu cUc mot cdch ngdu nhien thong qua ca </i>

<i>che tdc dong cua CSTT that chat. </i>

bien giua gia va lpi suat trai
phieu, gia trai phieu tren thi
trudng se giam xudng va de
tranh nii ro nay, nha dau tu
nam giii trai phieu ed xu hudng
ban ra trai phieu hoac cff cau lai
danh mue dau tu. He qua la thi
trudng trai phieu dien ra tinh

trang ban thao trai phieu va gay
anh hudng tieu cue tdi thi
trudng dau thau va huy ddng
vdn trai phieu. Tren TTCK Viet
Nam da tiing dien ra hien tupng
nay vao cudi nam 2008 khi
nhieu td chiie dau tu nude ngoai
day manh ban ra trai phieu do lo
ngai lai suat thi trudng tang de
kiem che lam phat.

Ddi vdi thi trudng ed phieu,
anh hudng tieu cue ciia lam phat
cd the dupe giai thich thdng qua
md hinh dinh gia ed phieu
Gordon nhu sau:

Div„x(H-g)_ Divi
( k , - g ) ( k , - g )
<i>Trong do: </i>

PQ: Gia cd phieu thdi ky dau
Div (0,1): Cd tiic (thdi ky dau
va cudi ky)

kg: Lpi suat yeu cau khi dau
t u vao ed phieu

g: Ty le tang trudng cd tiic
hang nam ciia doanh nghiep

Do viee thue hien CSTT de
kiem che lam phat, tuong t u nhu
tren, lai suat tren thi trudng cd
xu hudng tang. Tir ket qua tren
day ddi vdi thi trudng trai phieu

(YTM tang), va lai suat danh
nghia khi giii tien tren he thdng
ngan hang da tang, nha dau t u
se khd cd the chap nhan mdt
miic lpi suat dau t u vao cd phieu
thap (k^). Ndi each khac, lpi suat
yeu cau kg se phai tang theo, do
vay chenh lech lpi suat dau tu va
ty le tang trudng ciia doanh
nghiep (kj; - g) tang len, ddng
nghia vdi gia cd phieu (P^) giam
xudng. Vdi du bao gia cd phieu
giam nhu vay, thi trudng cd
phieu se chuyen sang giai doan
suy thoai do eae hoat ddng ban
trudc cd phieu de phdng ngiia
nii ro giam gia. Mat khac, khi
lam phat va lai suat tang, tdc dp
tang trudng ciia doanh nghiep
chac chan se bi anh hudng xau
theo hudng giam di do ehi phi
tang va lpi nhuan ky vpng sut
giam. He qua ciia dieu nay eung

la (kg - g) tang len va dan tdi xu
hudng tuong tu.

Nhu vay, trong mdi trudng
lam phat tang cao, giao dich
tren TTCK nhin chung hi anh
hudng theo hudng tieu cue mdt
each ngau nhien thdng qua eff
che tac dpng ciia CSTT that chat
dupc trien khai cd hieu qua
(khien lai suat thuc duong).

Trong bdn giai doan xem xet
d phan dau, khdng cd mdt giai
doan nao diln ra theo diing CP
che thii 3 nay. Ly do eff ban la vi
khdng cd mdt CSTT that chat
triet de; vi du, giai doan 2 that

chat tien te nhung chinh sach
tai khda v i n md nen lai suat
khdng giam, giai doan 4 ehi la
thu hep tien te va dii lai suat
sau cung cd tang manh dam bao
bii nii ro lam phat nhung tang
trudng tin dung va tdng phuong
tien thanh toan trong nen kinh
te van tang.

De ket luan, cd the ndi anh

hudng eiia dien bien lam phat
den TTCK tai Viet Nam trong 4
nam qua la hoan toan mang tinh
khach quan va phii hpp vdi cac
quy luat thi trudng. Ndi each
khac, khdng cd su "trai quy luat"
nao dien ra trong quan he giiia
diln bien eiia TTCK Viet Nam
va lam phat thdi gian qua. Viec
thuc thi phdi hpp cac chinh sach
kinh te khac nhau nham muc
tieu dinh hudng lam phat da
thuc su khien cho TTCK van
ddng theo nhiing hudng khac
nhau mdt each logic. Chi khi nao
viee quan ly dieu hanh thi
trudng tien te, tai khda va cac
chinh sach khac khdng ddng bp
mdi xay ra viec cp che tac ddng
ciia lam phat den TTCK khdng
boat ddng hoac kem hieu luc. De
ed the xac dinh dupc mot each
chinh xac nhat anh hudng ciia
lam phat den TTCK nhu the
nao, can phai cd nhung nghien
ciiu n h i m xay dung eae md hinh
kinh te lupng de cd the do ludng
miic dp anh hudng eiia lam phat
Cling vdi cac bien sd ddc lap khac
den giao dich chiing khoan tren

thi trudng. Tuy nhien, dieu nay
la mdt trd ngai khdng nhd lien
quan den ngudn sd lieu va tinh
phiic tap ciia ban than van de.
Do vay, viec ap dung cac ly
thuyet kinh te de giai thich cho
nhiing thuc te n h u da trinh bay
d tren la dieu can thiet. ®

<b>60 </b>

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