Một vài luận giải về phát triển thị trường tài chính nhằm đẩy mạnh huy động vốn.pdf

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<b>MQTvAl LU~NGill VEPHATTRliNTHITRUONGT~ CHiNH</b>

<b>kinhfe - xii hQi&nuacfa hi~n nay</b>

<b>TS,~Nguy~n D,i Lai*</b>

va tietki$mr

<i>Thu ba, d('mgvien</i>

m9i nguon Il,fec6 th~dl19Cca trong nl1acvanl1ac ngoai nham tang

\.ntong ng\lcm \\le \.aichinh dau tl1 c6 hi$uqua phl,JCVl,Jcong cu('>cCNH-HDH, thl,fc hi$nthanh cong ml,Jc tieuchien 1l19Cphat tri~n~inh te ma Di?i h(>i IX

c'ua Dang da de ra

-trong vang 10 nam r6i,Anh:Mc;mhHetoc d('>tang trl1CJngbinhcau va tiem nang ve van; ii)Cac giaiquan GDP di?t tren 7,5%/nam, denphap phat tri~n th! trl1CJngtai chfnhnam 2020, nen kinh te nl1ac ta Cdva day mi?nh huy d('>ngvan. Ca 2ban la mot nen kinh te cong nghi$p.va~ de, phUc ti?P..n6i, tren nhamKinh ~ghi$m thl,fCte nhling nam

hl1angvao 3 ml,Jctleu la:qua cho thay:D~

tang trl1CJng

GDP

<i>Thu nhat,</i> tim nguon va kha <i>CJmUc tU' 7</i>

-

9% thi phai duy tri dl19C

nang phat tri~n th! trl1CJngtai chfnh-toc d('>tang trl1CJngtong van dau tl1

bao gom th! trl1CJngtien t$ va th!toan xa h('>itU' 11,4 den 19,23%trl1CJngvan nham huy d('>ng van<i>(Xem Mng 1).</i>

nhanh nhat, re nhat;M~c du quan h$ nay khong phaila m('>tham dong bien tuyen tfnh vihi$u qua cua tong van dau tl1 toanxa h('>ican phl,Jthu('>cvao i) h$ soICOR; ii) ham 1l19ngvan cau thanh

~ o van dap Ctngnhu cau phattri~n kinh te - xa h('>icua casau thanh phan kinh te nl1acta trong boi canh h('>inh~p va ci?nhtranh ngay cang quyet Ii$t la m('>tnhi$m vl,Jvua mang tfnh cap bach,vua phai giai nhU'ng bai toan vi morat Ian d~t ra tU'moi quan h$ giCtachat 1l19ngtang trl1CJngkinh te vdivi$c hoan thi$n cac th~ che th!trl1CJng<i>tai chfnh d~ dap Ung tot nhat</i>

ml,Jctieu d6. Ti?o van tuy la vi$c ratkh6 khan va mi?ohi~m song mdi chila dieu ki$n can, vi$c su dl,Jngvanc6 hi$u qua trong dau tl1 phat tri~nkha di c6 th~ thuc day

vang quay van an toanvdi chat 1l19ngcao thongqua vi$c dau tl1 c6 hi$uqua mdi la dieu ki$n ducua chien 1l19Cti?Ovan.

Vdi

ynghia d6, bai vietnay xin g6p m('>tso ykien vao 2 van de chfnhgom: i) Xac d!nh nhu

<i>Thu hai, nang cao hi$u qua su</i>

dl,Jngvan tren cd S0 hoan thi$n cacth~ che th! trl1CJngtheo nguyen tacci?nhtranh, binh d~ng, minh b~ch

<b>Bimg1: £>(>ng thai GDP va ty trc;mg von dau tU'toan xii h{>iso GDP</b>

. NHNN

T~ em NGAN

<small>IIANG</small> - &6 5 NAM2004

~-<i>^Nguon:^Ni{m^{giam Thong}^ke</i>

<small>/'</small>

Nam

Chi tieu¹⁹⁹⁵¹⁹⁹⁶¹⁹⁹⁷¹⁹⁹⁸¹⁹⁹⁹²⁰⁰⁰²⁰⁰¹²⁰⁰²Tang trl1CJngGDP (%)9,549,3,48,155,764,726,796,847,0Tang trl1CJngvan dau11,914,8919,232,659,7910,8.12,2111,4tl1(%)

Tong von dau tl1/ GDP31,65 32,1334,4532,4532,832,9133,7534,6(%)

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GDPtfnh cho nam tai chinhTuy nhien,suy cho cung,

<i>neu xet theo quan h~ ham so phi tuyen tfnh thi toc d9</i>

tang tru'angvon dau tu' toan xa h9i la m9t chi so quantr9ng nhat d~ tfnhtoan nhu cau von dau tu'cho ml,lctieutang tru'angt6ng quat. Ngoai ra, con co cach tfnh nhucau von t6ng quat dl!a vao h~ so ICOR nhu'ngtrongdieu ki~n cl,Ith~ ve cac so li~u a nu'acta hi~n nay, d9

chinhxaccuah~so naykhongcaodo connhieutranhlu$nkhacnhau.Cachtfnhdelngiimnhatdu'<;1cde xuat

trong bai viet ngan nay la dl!a vao cong thUcxac d!nh

nhucauvonchotoannenkinhte

theo

<i>chisovetocd9</i>

tang tru'angt6ng dau tu'xa h9i binh quan nhu'sau:VI = Vox (1+V*)(1-1)

Trongdo: VI: t6ng von dau tu'can huy d9ng cho n~m

<i>thu t, Vola t6ng von dau tu' nam d!nh goc; V*: la ty I~</i>

tang tru'angt6ng dau tu' toan xa h9i binh quan - d6i ra

<small>,</small>

sot~$p phan.

, Theo bimg 1: neu lay nam2002<i>la nam dinh goc,chungta co gia tr! tuy~t doi mUct6ng dau tu'toan xa h9i</i>

nam2002la 34,6% x GDP = 0,346 x 536000 ty =185456ty (GDP theo gia hi~n hanh nam 2002 khoang

<i>536000tyd). COngtLtbang 1 neu lay chi so toc d9 tangtru'angdau tu'binh quan la 12%/namcho m9t chuoi namtfnh toan - do la mUchoantoan co tfnh kha thi vi da dl!a</i>

vao day so trong qua khUco gan vai dieu ki~n kho khan

<i>trong nhiing nam tiep theo d~ suy ra va lay mUct6ng</i>

dau tu'toan xa h9i nam2002lamnamgocva du'avao

cong thUc d~ lam vi dl,l tfnh toan, se du'<;1cso li~u nhu'sau:

Nam

2002=185456

ty x (1+ 0,12)0 = 185456 ty dong

Nam2003= 185456ty x (1 + 0,12)1=207711ty dong

Nam2004=185456ty x (1 + 0,12)2=232637ty dongNam2005= 185456ty x (1+ 0,12)3=260553ty dongNam2006=186456ty x (1+ 0,12)4= 281920ty dong

Tu'elng

tl!, nam2010=185456ty x (1+ 0,12)8=443607

ty dong.

<i><b>Bang 2: Co cau dau tU' mQt so nam qua</b></i>

<i>Nguon: Nien giam Th6ng ke</i>

Bang 2 chi r6 hi~n tr~ng mat can doi nghiem tr9ngtrong vi~c thu hut von dau tu' vao cac khu Vl!c

kinh te

khac nhau cua nen kinh te trong m9t chuoi nam qua, cl,Ith~ nhu' sau:

- Dau tu' cua ngan sach Nha nu'ac(NSNN)co xuhu'anggia tang ngaytrong boi canh t6ng

Il!C

NSNN con

rat h~n che.

- Tin dl,lng tLt Nha nu'ac cOng co xu hu'ang gia tang.

Tren thl!Cte, tfn dl,lngtLtkhu

Vl!C

nay(thongquacacqui

cua Nha nu'ac) dang Ian san tfn dl,lng ngan hang vaphat tri~n m~nh Celche xin - cho, nam ngoai kha nangki~m soat cua ng~n hang.

- Dau tu'tLt cac doanh nghi~p Nha nu'ac (DNNN) coxu hu'ang chiing I~i.

- Dau tu'tLtkhu

<small>Vl!C</small> ngoai quoc doanh giam lien tl,lc.

- Dau tu'tLtkhu

vl!c

co von dau tu'nu'acngoai giamm~nh - tLt9,61% GDP nam 1995 xuong chi con 3,4%GDP nam2002.

<i>Tt'Jcac hi~n tr?ng neu tren, co the SOb{) rut ra m{)t</i>

<i>s6 ket lu{jn sau oay:</i>

- Can tang cu'ongt$p trung cac kenh d~ huy d9ngn9i dia;

- Khuyen khich m~nh me dau tu'vao khu

vl!C

ngoai

quoc doanh, tu' nhan;

- T$p trung dau tu' cua Nha nu'ac vao cac dl! an tr9ngdi~m thong qua cac hinh thuc dau tu' t~o "cu hich" vadau tu' ho tr<;1laisuat sau dau tu' la chu yeu.

Nhu' cac soli~u noi tren da Selb9 xac d!nh du'<;1ct6ng

tu'trong nhiing nam tai. Tuy nhien, d~ huy d9ng von canphai xac d!nh cac kenh thong qua vi~c hoan thi~n th~che va phat tri~n dong b9 thi tru'ong tai chinh. Cel so cuanhiing de xuat ve giai phap phat' tri~n thi tru'ong taichinh va huy d9ng von trong bai viet nay xin du'<;1Cdexuat nhu' sau:

<i>M{)t la, huy o{)ng qua</i>

<i>NSNN:</i>

Day la kenh con tiemnang Ian do ty I~ n<;1n9i d!a cua Chinh phu/GDP con rat

thap (9% so vai TrungQuoCt>159%);TYI~ n<;1

nu'ac ngoai <small>'</small>

<i>luy ke con a trong mUc 'an toan (37% so vai v~ch bao</i>

d9ng do 50% GDP). Chinh vi v$y, vua d~ t~o hang hoada d~ng cho thi tru'ong chltng khoan va th! tru'ong vonthu cap cua no, vua t~o m9t nguon von Ian t$p trungcho Nha nu'ac, Chinh phu va chinh quyen cap tlnh,thanh pho nen co ke ho~ch chi d~o vi~c tang cu'ongphat hanh trai phieu trung va dai h~n d~ dau tu'vao caccong trinh tr9ng di~m. Tat nhien, d~ huy d9ng du'<;1cnhieu von qua kenh nay con phl,l thu9C vao vi~c nangcao uy tfn cua dong tien Vi~t Nam, vao tinh minh b~chcua thi tru'ong tai chinh, vao Sl! hap d~n cua hinh thUchuy d9ng, lai suat va tinh thanh khoan cua cong cl,I taichinh tren thi tru'ong...;

<i>(Xem liep trang 19)</i>

8_{T~ CIIf}_NcAN

_IIANc

_{- &6 5 NXM}₂₀₀₄

GDP(%)NSNNI TDNNIDNNNI ngoai GDP

199531,655,932,65 4,728,749,612000_32,91_7,81,_6,10_5,01_7,83_6,16200133,75 ,8,345,785,497,956,192002_34,60_..-,.-.,-

_,"', _.,,,

_3,4

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- Ban than cac TCTD xem xetgiamphfthanhtoan va mien m(>tsolo~iphithanhtoan cho khach hang.Vi dy nhU',da thl,J'Chi$n giao dichnganhangm(>tCLta,gUim(>tnoi linhm(>tMi, thi khong nen thu phi khikhachhangm6 tai khoant,?im(>tchinhanh,song n(>ptien m$t VaGm(>tchinhanhkhac trong cung h$ thongnganhang d6. HO$cla khach hangvayvon, song chuy§n tien VaGtaikhoantra cho m(>tngU'oikhac t,?ichinhchi nhanh ngan hang d6, chutai khoan chuy§n di thanh toan t,?inganhangkhac trong thai gian dU'ai3 ngaythi bi thu phf, can neu thl,J'C

hi$n cac giao dich d6 bangtien m$tthi khong mat phiL.. Theo chung toiNHTMnen bai bo lo,?iphi nay.

- Trongdieu ki$ngiao dich nganhang m(>tcLta,giao dich trl,J'CtuyenON - Line,tien tai la chCi'ky di$n tLt,chUngtU'di$ntLt,...nen nhCi'ngrui rod,?odUcdoi vai can b(>ngan hang,rui ro tien m$t, rui ro trong thanhtoan,... cang c6 Cdh(>ixay ra. Dongthai, nhCi'ngthu do,?nd(>tnh$pm,?ngcua m(>tso doi tU'<;1ngc6 th§ xay ra.Vi v$y, yeu cau phong chong rui rocan dU'<;)cquan tam dung mUc.

- KhiTCTD tri§n khai dl,J'an hi$nd,?i hoa ngan hang va h$ thongthanh toan, NHNNnen yeu cau cacTCTD gLticho NHNNm(>tban mo tachi tiet cac van de ky thu$t va n(>idung dl,J'an. Tren cd 56 d6, NHNNc6 sl,J'g6p 'I, g<;1i'I can thiet 9ao damsl,J'quan 1'1,tinh thong nhat frong

cong ngh$ thanh toan qua nganhangcua nen kinhte, khong nen d§moi m(>tngan hang thue m(>tcongty tU'van rieng, m(>tnha thau rieng.Do d6, c6 th§ nay sinh ra tinh tr,?ngmoi ngan hang m(>tki§u cong ngh$khac nhau, c6 th§ trinh d(> khacnhau. Sau nay vi$c noi m,?ngphoih<;1ptrong toan nganh Nganhang c6th§ kh6 khan.

- ChU'dngtrinh noi m,?ngket noih$ thong thanh toan the va mayATM giCi'acac NHTM can thiet phaidU'<;)cday nhanh tien d(>,khong nend§ qua ch$m tre trong vi$c thl,J'Chi$n giai phap nay. NHNNhay Hi$ph(>iNgan hang nen to chUch(>ithaove cong ngh$ ngan hang, giup cacNHTM cung nhau trao doi kinhnghi$m cac van de ve ky thu$t.cong ngh$ , quan 1'1,...cua cac dichvy tri§n khai thai gian qua..

<i>(Tiep theo trang</i>

8)

<i>Halla,huycTQngquakenhnganhang:Dayla kenhda,dangva</i>

contiept~cd6ngvai tro chuIl!c trangvi$chuydQngvon chonenkinhte.Tuynhien,dodQsautai chinhbinhquancuacacnganhangVi$tNamcanquathap:(Nam2002,chisot6nghuyd(>nglGDPmaidC)t55%,trongkhid6 conso naycuaThaiLan101:94%,cuaTrungQuacla 137%...).Dieud6 n6i lenrangtiemnangvontrongdancvconratIan.Theodieutra cuat6 chucquocte JaiCanam1999thityIetietki$mquanganhangtrongt6ngtiet ki$mcua nenkinhtemald~t25%- nghTala cantai 75%nguontiet ki$mcuanenkinhte

kinhte- d$cbi$tlatrongdanCLf,dathamdl! VaGvi$cgayranhCfngcansotve vang,nhadat, bat dQngsan va tai san c6 gia tr! Iankhac...TinhhinhnaydennayvanchLlasangsuahondangke.De

<i>huydQngtotquakenhchuIl!c naycanit nhat3 dieuki$nco banla</i>

i)ondinhkinhte vi mo;Ii)tangtiemIl!ctai chinhchocacnganhang;Iii)nangcaouytin dongtienVi$tNam;

<i>Bala, huycfQngquath{ tnrcmgchU'ngkhoan:L~m(>tquocgia</i>

dangpMt trientrongvungkinhte dangdLlOC99i la "n6ng"nhatvac6serchapdanvondautLlkham~nhcuathegiai,thi trLlongchungkhoanVi$tNamxet ve m$tdieuki$nphattrienva tiemnangtangquimaho~tdQngla canratIan.D$cbi$tlatronglucdLlongnhLlcactheIl!c kinhte the giai dang"ve I~i" bando kinhte thi nhieuthitrLIdng<i>chungkhoanchauMy Latinhdangsuygiam,nhieuvunga</i>

TrungDongvaray Baca dangbat6nveanninh...thi khuvl!c Chauan6ichung,DongNamCMu a n6iriengcangtrathanhcacdjachitc)odLlCJCSl!chu'I caocuacacnhadautLltai chfnhtrenthegiai.Thi

trLldngchung khoan Vi$t Nam da ra dOisong mai dung I~i

<i>a</i>

qui mo

"mQtsangiaodjch"t~i thanhphoHo Chi Minh,cannhieuh~nchecavethecheIanqui mova congngh$nendennayho~tdQngcanratyeuat, mai chiemmQtthj phanhet suc khiemton: xap xi 4%

<i>GDPsovaicOngconsonayla20den50%a nhieuthi trLfongchung</i>

khoancac nLlaCphattrien,chLlad6ngdLlqcvai tro lam kenhhuyd(>ngvontrungva dai h~nquantr9ngnhatcua nenkinhte. Chfnhdieud6cOngkh~ngdinhrang,chungta canc6kenhquantr9ngnay

hi$n dang

<i>a</i>

diem xuat phat ma trong tLlong lai gan c6 the va can

phait~ptrungm9ino Il!c de khaidongva khaithacm~nhmevi$chuydQngvontrungva dai h~nquathi trLlongnhieutiemnangnay.Cacno Il!c can dinhhLlangcho thi trLlongchungkhoan.la:Hoanthi$nthe che,d~y m~nhquatrinh c6 phan hoathl!c sl! khu vl!cdoanhnghi$pNhanLlaC(ke ca cac NHTMNN)de t~o nhieuhanghoa c6 chatILlqng,phandau den 2010doanhso cua thi trLlongchungkhoanphaid~tit nhat15-20%GDP;

<i>Bonla, caGkenhhuycTQngkhac:Trangso cac kenhnay,trLlac</i>

het la tim co che thichhqpde thu hut cac nguonvon nLlaCngoai(ODA,FDI,cac tai trq bangcac nguonvay thLlongm~i khac...).Phandaunangdoanhsokhaithactlt cacnguonvonnLlaCngoailenngangva VLfgtmucdinhnam1995(xapxi10%GDP)trongnhCfng

<i>namtai. NhanLlaCcankhuyenkhichva c6 the checy the chocac</i>

hinhthuctl! huydQngcua donvi kinhte thongquacac congcy:phatMnh trai phieucongty, trai phieucongtrinhde trl!c tiep t~omQtphanvonchodautLlphattrien;Cacnganhangphattrienm~nhsangdichvy vat~odungmoi16nghoacaccongcy nqdethitrLlongtai chinhn6i chung,thi trLlongvon n6iriengc6 suc luanchuyenvachuyenhoam~nhmehon.

T6mI~i,vai"bonmOigiapcong"co banke trenneudLlqcminhb~chhoacaccongc~va t~omQtdungmoiphap1'1du hi$uIl!c,duniemtinthivandetimvonkhongphailakh6khanneuson6vaivande tim dia chi dautLlc6 hi$uqua.Riengca nhantOicho rangbaitoandetimvonva hoanthi$nthi trLlongtai chinhn6ichungI~inam

<i>chuyeua vi$Ct90ra mQtnenkinhte bietdungvonVaGdauc6 hi$u</i>

quanhat.Canvande bangcachnaova baonhieuthi kinhnghi$mquocte c6 sancOngnhLltiemIl!c trangva ngoainLlaCse dapungm(>tcachkhongnhieukh6khan..

T~ CIIf

NCANIIANc

- 86 5 NMt

2004

<b>19</b>

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