BÀI NGHIÊN CỨU CHÂU Á ĐƯƠNG ĐẦU VỚI BỘ BA BẤT KHẢ THI

Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO
TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ TP.HCM

BÀI NGHIÊN CỨU
CHÂU Á ĐƯƠNG ĐẦU VỚI
BỘ BA BẤT KHẢ THI
GVHD : 
Lớp : 
Nhóm thực hiện : 
- !"#$
- %&$%"#
- '($)*"
TP.HCM, năm 2013
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [1]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
MỤC LỤC
TÓM TẮT 1
I. GIỚI THIỆU 1
II. TỔNG QUAN CÁC KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU TRƯỚC ĐÂY 2
2.1. Lý thuyết bộ ba bất khả thi 2
2.1.1. +,-+./00120/3
2.1.2. 45676685953:;6/'5+./00<+'=20/3>
2.1.3. ?3@5'35'0ABC:676685953D
2.2. Đo lường các chỉ số bộ ba bất khả thi của nhóm tác giả Aizemman, Chinn và Ito
(2008) 8
2.2.1. Thước đo của bộ ba bất khả thi 8
2.2.1.1. 
2.2.1.2.  !"#$%!#$&'
2.2.1.3. ()*+, !/&'
2.2.2. Tương quan tuyến tính giữa các chỉ số bộ ba bất khả thi 12

2.2.3. Tác động của sự lựa chọn chính sách bộ ba bất khả thi đến hiệu quả vĩ mô của
nền kinh tế 13
2.3. Phương pháp nghiên cứu chế độ tỷ giá - mô hình Frankel-Wei 14
III. PHƯƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU 16
3.1. Phương pháp nghiên cứu 16
3.2. Phạm vi nghiên cứu 17
IV.NỘI DUNG VÀ CÁC KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU 17
4.1. Kiểm soát vốn 17
4.1.1. +E?75A.@<5/56:BF3
4.1.2. +E?75A.@<5'5A54G
4.1.2.1. 0*0123456789:.;'
4.1.2.2. . <=7>?)*;;
4.1.2.3. .@A A2BC7DE>)2F;G
4.2. Dấu hiệu nhận biết chính sách tỷ giá linh hoạt của các nước Asia 11 26
4.3. Phân tích chính sách 30
4.3.1. H<I76685953JKG
4.3.2. LA4?7KM
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [2]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
V. KẾT LUẬN 34
DANH MỤC TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [3]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO
 '(#N$NGNO3B5'-3P4'"Q
&39354%)+
 R0 %539 .ST NGGN S=3  U'5= 5/ RV==360/'335N S=3
W/</0V/59R=5355/
K S3X/N  Y  GGK  Z 5/  3 /  039=  6/5[//  U330  . 5'./  V/3
/30;/V'5N530'/U\3;/=/']\;^_'93%V/'

``G>6'3./a\;
M S3X/NYN+3N.)R5GGDS==/==35/\/'3O0602330
S'35/5'/a+/='35/'30/b=U3'53=</'3/\;/30
;/V'5McKK6'3./a\;
c S3X/NY.RGGMZ5/5[[U//.696/5[//U330.5'./
V//==\;/30;/V'5GM`>6'3./a\;
> 55'N;NR%539N.SGGD\'0['3=U3U0533R.3
\3.%03530_//90NVV>1> 
 3N +. )R5 GGDS /[/='/ U U330 V//== Y'0 U
V'53</%03S0=3=a;/=/'.%'53/NG]K^aKG`1K
D W''3N  \N  S  +//'3'9/0N  .  W  56'6'  GG`  W/=53  U330
./</0V/53//'3/3/=a\<3.//.3V0353=\'V//5'09
/30;/V'5G
` 2'9/0NY.Y_/3GG S==/==33b=\d/;5/;/3//30
;/V'5N\;_'93%V/'KGG6'3./a\;
GL/N%;.O++30/=32/''/553GG //d5/'0[/05U53='9RRa
;/<3=/../d5/././=535/=UU'/3==/5=.03630353/=N` GGGMY'0U
R5/'530\3=N K]^aK1cG
%539N R  GG  R.3b=  ''/  '/3/ . 35=  =/F//=  \3  .
%03530_//90
%539NRNS/V5N.SGG`'./3=3<33aS/0U'./
U5V3505V//==/30;/V'5N530R=5355/U%60323/
.%031W/V'5/5U\3SUU3'=N+33=5'U23/;/=/'%''
K%539NRN.S]U'53^_R.39/.[/L/6'9/
R.3%032'N>
Me/30/3=  SN  S  N  R  %539  ]U'53^  /=53N  +35'3N  .  W53
5'5'0  /=  3  \d/  ;5/  ;/3/=  V5530  553=53=  f  W5
S0=3=
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [4]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi

I. GIỚI THIỆU
Lg545I676685953J0750g545h55'9354<i,3j
?&3N5/?k750l75F3m5@0AG5'GKC530?7
0nV53h5jNo?$5p3B<73nV53P&35'qB"r579<A?s
53htN(45BF3VB55'3@?h5/?o3C53P=B
?70nV53h5jN5p3B3?B35o3N<73nV53P

+75="rH5-"u0&3N<P.C")s,0&35/?o3C53
P=Bo?$5p3BN73nV53P<9,?70nV<h53h5j3N-
NBh9354Hd"r5A3j759P=B53h5j534
=A85FB935A3j4?75'3]?0945uV93@=B5<<P=B
5p3B9v03&5^3h?w5'xy35l<$<h5A5'&<=A5345'3@
5'P=B53h5jzB"rHN<8&=A(5345:759
P=B53h5jVkuV
'633EN5B35nV5'<h9354zHN6s
{7N7|.']%;^N)s,N3LN3V'/N
+0=3NB3LNR./=3N%303VV3/=N!3j5<&3)W]=?
30)^F3075B"r9,?s85z3hw5N
5q755VF3y"3V'/?4}9o0s'N5qh93
54~"{7?4Bh93543"3LN')
B33x"r0IS=3J
B393@5'<3j5A3jBC53:S=3.A5'GK9P&
:676685953N6s93@=B5<N4?75p3B<P=B53h5j?70nV
B3?}5550&3B=03j59?3<r35q"r5'S=3<5nV5'
<3EB3B5'$?3<r3GKh93540r855'S=3N6s{7N
'<)
z3<-x"r?,3939,0"?},6NP<-0g.?
633E5nV5'<3E93@=B5<N4?75p3B<9
P=B53h5j:B"r5'5A54HIJ#05/x-
?},6K7IJ52C5@N5B35nV5'<x

?3h93j?@5A3j5A.539<N5p3B03&5<x5B?7:
l?4P=B53h5j5,F0}3=855A&5'5A54
B3n58'•Nw.kB"rS=3?}5'3FBB?7:73
nV53PN"x&45'@<<€|5s5&3zxF
33N5'5A54N<r3=A35•E?7VE5&V:j553P
5-x?3h9,5@•B"r73nV53P=
#
B"rH:45/?o3C53P=B5p3B9v03&5
+w.k9@5q=•GGGN=A03&5:5p3B3?B3:B"rH5•
"E5•<€58V#E53‚:543r3nPN5p3B3?B3
:)?"u?B3B5P03&59B"<€"?"ud/05p
3B5o3
1
3<r3B?s53h9B5-?s\'5p3B3?B303&5<A?s53h
t5A3j5A.53P<5/?o3C53?70nV53h5j5'9<At
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [5]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
P=BV9*93540755'x340"uBF0g
53h5j"r?4?@•?&5?"uC53o?$0&VB5<3B5'$=0"u?(
'B35nV5'<C53:Bh935493V3?3w5<r3I=A
?B?o3Jd'5'676685953)3jN5'5A54N(45B"rH
?h5/?o3C5373nV53P<P=B5p3B9v03&5ƒv55'
V&<3B.|<05n9*N&5?793.53h5j:B
'"#=„@?o3B.|<5n9*5P=B5n9*
9354'<{70G5'"QuV5l<$:3j5"uN58
5'V&<33r3&5A.539<3xBF35'5A54<j
553P5"#?349v:3F33Nl5n58
'•NzG"r5-P=B53h5j("05n9*
B3'•N5'5A54N<3jz…539<FB5'93
E?703&5:5p3B"0Bh93545'V3?3w5<r3

x':3'53h‚5'FB5'-73nV0<8?h?BF5:
+0=3<3L5'<3j945uVa]3^j553PVE5&V033j
F:93@=B5<N]33^E?7z…539<5'5A54<]333^5PFB
E:5p3B3?B33Bh93545A3j?$5p3B3?B35,
F.|<5n9*?}0<3j<3j5/?o3P=BV9*93
545'z99•#N.?633E?"'755'"QuV<h
759P=B53h5jVkuV
II. TỔNG QUAN CÁC KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU TRƯỚC ĐÂY
2.4. Lý thuyết bộ ba bất khả thi
2.1.4. Mô hình Mudell – Fleming
Lg54567668595303F?4x9345E#65'9354<i
,<?"u35,FV5P,-RL+dv5?45B?7:B
55B
Cân bằng bên trong và bên ngoài
+†3h9354?h?@?&5?"u=A6•<i,."r3-5E
6•65'<635,F3h,CP=B9BNo36n5
5'=?00}3=85N54NE353PV:<u,6•65'?&5
?"u935o(6•<r35o5'"r5&3E5.Ci03B<
=0"u5'"r?"u.5'-zE5&3?5$5'"QN5$5'"Q53h5j
<5$5'"Q0?7?h6•49,?BVE?(?:x?3h93j5'N
h9354=„$BV0A0&VB5w=5B35"#E935o(<"u5FBw
58V#E5.C:h9354B5V(:5o(?"u5@3j
5'V"#5'-=?a
Yd = C + I + G + NX
'?0353.kNR03?(5"NO0353PV:<ƒ0d85
9‚'|ƒ?"udB?$6z3a
NX = X
0
– mY
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [6]

Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
!r3ƒ
G
05o3B5'$d859‚N‡05o3B5'$nV9‚"<nNd859‚
9,VC57<E=0"u]5nV^F3‡"nV9‚075
:‡$5'"Q6•935o(]‡.^6•5o]‡^
B55B:75h93546s35V(:4053
9<}03<539<N?"u.355,FV"#5'-=a
BP = NX + KA
Wƒ345p5'0r5'539<}03ƒ?"ud/"053
9<}03<S0539<]6•53=5'"r?"u=zx6z3,
."r35'q?353="r3?"u=ˆx6z3,.5'"r^
O3=…@<0N5539<075:
0j3x0}3=855'"r<0}3=85"r3NC5@0a
KA = k(r – r*)
40}3=855'"r5•5"#?3=<r30}3=85"r35-0u3n
?(5"5'"r#0u30n?(5"'"r3N,.5'"r<"r
3d"r5•53=5'"r<353="r3N<
9"r?o<5'"r375B9BN40}3=855'"r]'^#
0}3=85"r3]'‰^5-539<=„5w."<"u0&3B9C:
75B55B5@=A5C5w5w.""B55B
5o5@V30,0,6•


075?VF5':,-+./0020/393?"45
"r3<V5P5',-RL+5,F<3j6o=?"QB
)3jF:P=B539<P=B53h5j."r34?75p3B?$
+./00<20/3?}35P3jF:P=B539<P
=B53h5j."r34?75p3B?$5,F,-RL+%
"QR05nVuVBV3uV9B3x5nV<0}3=855&3?

5$5'"Q6•A.$@?"QR5@3j5B?7:P=B
539"QL+05nVuVBV3uV9B3x5nV<0}3=855&3
?5$5'"Q53h5j6•A.$@?"QL+5@3j5B?7:P
=B53h5j
A5B?7:P=B539<P=B53h5j5@05?o3B
5'&5B3:B55B"Q%05nVuVxV3uV9B3x
5nV<0}3=85z?B55B6•"Q%.05@3j
3Fj?s6343x0}3=85<5nV%B53j075=A534670r:
,-+./0020/3=<r3,-//=O3=…B55B6•
]%ŠG^zE5nV‡<0}3=85'4‡5•5-0"unV9‚‡5•0
539<}03ƒ3<.?%‹G]B55B5C5^!-<nN
?@B55B5'z0&36•5-(V335•539<SN?3h?
2
35s0"u&35j?3<5'"r0r#]y#^5o0"u&35j?3'9y3"r5-B5
5B5w."]5C5^3B55B5C55w."=„d853j9535'uP5E]Z2a
UU330U33^535'uP5EVB0"u.A5'x&35j)_V33'93B
55B5C55<h93B55B5w."?@3xB55B5o5@0,
6•'#45p3B5o35NB55B0,6•N.?9535'uP5E0,
6•G
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [7]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
?si<r3<3j35•E0}3=855'"r'350&3N935nV5•
0B55B5C55-0}3=855'"rV35•0?@B5
5B5'z<h<$5'P6•<"u0&3
W"r34?75p3B?$N9,6859*0g.?@?6B5
5B0,6•]%ŠG^4=A945uV5&6•65'3x5nV<0}3
=85•6V3?"Q%]Œ&"?3@25'-^5-B55B
5C5]%‹G^4=A945uV•65'B3?"Q%]?3@O^5-B
55B5w."]%•G^
O3=…6?(Nh9354?6•65'<635&3?3@\]‡‰N

'‰^5'?s5$3PV:BV.CP=B539z'7N?"QR.$
@?4RbN5L+5&3ONh9354?&56•65'a=0"u5•?s
5Q30}3=85Ž5•45FN.|<d"r<5'"rB
55B=„5w."<5p3Bd"r3@.5'-5p3B?$N)_
V3?"50"u735j<h9354?@&35jW?N?"QL+.$
@=V35L+bN5&?3@6•<i,r35&3)0?3@6•
.3&6h<x
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [8]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
Hình 1: Quan hệ IS – LM – BP trong chế độ tỷ giá cố định.
Y
r
Y*
r*
G
E
F
BP
LM'
H
BP < 0
BP > 0
LM
IS'
IS
'755'"QuV9BNd85VB55q?3@\]‡‰N'‰^N4l5BV.C
75P=B53h5jz'75-?"QL+.$@=V35?"QL+b
h93546•65'5&3?3@2a=0"u5•0N0}3=853W?N
.|<d"r'"r3934B55B5C5<5p3B
d"r5•0@.5'-5p3B6?(N)_V36B&35j'?@?o30873

5jN.?0"u.A5'x&35j3<0"u53h5'"rŽ3d
45FN?"QL+.$@=5'B35'z0&3<$5'P6?(<?3@6•=„F
<h0&3?3@\i0=0"u=9335•5'755Q33=„F0&3
?3@6•6?(
"<nN."r34?75p3B?$<@<NP=B53
93jF5'93P=B53h5j9,3jF
Hiệu quả của chính sách tiền tệ và chính sách tài khóa dưới chế độ tỷ giá linh
hoạt:
O3=…h9354?6•65'<635&3?3@\]‡‰N'‰^5'
?s5$+75P=B53@5jz'7=„0?"QL+.$@=V35
?"QL+bh93546•65'5&3?3@2&3?3@2N=0"u5•0N
0}3=855'"r3dN.?<d"r'"r3934B
55B6$5C5<5p3Bd"r5•035p3B5•0i0
?s735j6$33BNQ?05•=E&5'F54.€?4d859‚5•
<nV9‚3ƒ5•045FN0"u&35j?3<'|5•0N0
?"QR<%.$@=V30Rb<%b-5?3@6•r3
5&3YzE=0"u#=0"u6•6?("<nNP=B53h5j
5B.C&?@35•=0"u
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [9]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
Hình 2: Quan hệ IS – LM – BP trong điều kiện tỷ giá thả nổi.
Y
Y
J
*
Y
K
*
Y*
r*

r
G
F
E
K
J
BP''
BP
BP'
LM'
LM
IS''
IS'
IS
dv5d/5B?7:P=B539ƒ85VB55q?3@\0?3@
6•6?(+75P=B539z'70?"QR.$@=V3
5RJh9354?&56•65'5&3?3@O<r3=0"u5•?s5Q3
0}3=855'"rŽ5•45FN.|<<d"r5•B
55B5w."<.?5p3Bd"r3d35p3B3i0
?s735j5•3B0=E&5'3N.?d859‚'|ƒ3<0"u
&35j?3<'|3?"Q%=„.$@=5'B35%J<?"Q
RJ=„.$@"u0&35Rb-5?3@6•r3<r3=
0"u<0}3=85?h3=<r3C53"<nNP=B5395B.C4
#5'<3j35•=0"u
?N5'l5'9450naL M>)N>877<
))O*2 P Q5MA=*2 )=PP 
QL7A
qxV5P5'N,-+./0020/3g'•a3jF:
P=B53h5j<P=B539VC57<#45p3B3?B3<E?7
93@=B5<z†3F3

2.1.5. Thuyết bộ ba bất khả thi của Robert Mudell và Marcus Fleming
;6/'5+./00<+'=20/3?}x?VF5'h
9354F54<?(5nV3`>GN?w63j505'0i<A53P53h5jŽ
"?w5h0g545676685953G,?}m''•zxF
3=….CP=B53h5j<P=B539?@?&5?"u=A6•65'
]6•5o15o(^<6•63]6•5'B5
5B^5-P=B53h5j?"u=….C?@?&5?"u=A6•5'B
55B<P=B539?"u=….C?@?&5?"u=A6•5'5o
<5o(
•B3?$@<0N+./0020/3]`>K^?}m
''•P=B539VB53jF5'#45p3B?$<P
=B53h5j5B.C&."r34?75p3B5o33hiN4
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [10]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
@<05-P=B53h5j59,3j0A4PV:
5/?o3C53o?$5p3B"=„3j0A4PV:5o35p3B
WA<0g545NB9354"']` `^<2'9/0]```^?}
VB55'3@050g545676685953
766859535@?"uVB563@"75?$?ha75F39,5@
?s5Q3?&5?"u5p3B?$N73nV53P<?70nV53h5jN5/?75F
3m5@0Ak750l?s5Q3G5'GKC530?70nV53h5jNo
?$5p3B<73nV53P
Hình 3: Bộ ba bất khả thi
76685953?"u35'-N†3&5"u5'"75
P=B53h5j?70nVNo?$5p3B<73nV53P+†3&,575C
539*<N539,5@5A3j?s5Q3GK&:7553B85
9*wVC53Ž5@?&5?"u6•754?75p3B5"#E"V3
5q6yC53P=B|0&3a
 Ổn định tỷ giá và hội nhập tài chính được kết hợp6•B0A4?7
5p3B?$"V35q6y?70nV53h5j3hiPV:?}85?3

75,C?@?3hm0}3=855'"r?70nV<r30}3=85"r3
 Độc lập tiền tệ và hội nhập tài chính được kết hợp6•B0A4?7
5p3B5o3"V35q6yC53o?$5p3B!r30ANPV:
]'"#^?"uFh5A.8?$0}3=85"?o30&35p3BV3<n
5/#45$5'"Q
 Ổn định tỷ giá và độc lập tiền tệ được kết hợp6•B0A5$5'"Q
<?LAiPV:V353450nV93@=B5<393@
=B5<N303j3x0}3=85<5p3B=„6$VB<ˆ
+755,?3jV:6766859530=A534C5B,C5'F0g
9354<i,A534C5.PV:V3?3w5<r375=A?B?o3!P.CN
4PV:73nV53P=#N67V335'6-5p5':
GC53|0&3]o?$5p3BP5#Nw?70nV53h5jP5#Nw945uV
3^B534Vn676685953"5'30B534Vn5'3E9,
V3534Vn5/GK?m53B3N?45PVkuV:=A?B
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [11]
Thị trường
vốn đóng
Tỷ giá
cố định
Tỷ giá
thả nổi
•?$
5p3B
)73nV
53P
P=B
53h5j
?70nV
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
?o33xGK634=5'676<€"?"u93@E75B5P?B‚

A6?(:0g5456769,?"'6859*75,5Ew7553‚
?@3075BPdB=A945uV3xGK634P=B:6766859
53
2.1.6. Quan điểm trung gian trong lựa chọn các mục của bộ ba bất khả thi
BF35"Q3493V3?3w5<r3x=A0AzGA:
75C53"0g5455::676685953<?NB"r0A
4?75'3:676685953]O//'03X/.'30/U3'53^73
nV53P5qV(N5p3B5o3F0g<75E?70nV53h5j85?$
3B685953:+./0020/3mr35nV5'?4B#45p3B•z
B?m:53B"?hnV?475#45p3B5'3•??6
5'53B685953
\3/'//]``M^'•4?75p3B'53h5jN/5p3B.36•
5p3B?h96h<xN,:7I33VBV3JIF?3@0"ˆAJ
3N2'9/0]```^'•75F3<€5@0A#45p
3B6Bo?$]0U=563035^<P=B53h5j6B?70nV]0U3./V/.//^!
0g5456766859539,5@•75F35/?o3#45p3B5
o3F0gN.36•5p3BN5p3B?$5@?3hm685E#45p3B
5'3)#xN,?}8&'•9,754?753h5j.85
05585585BF3<5nP5'PF3?5-Ž
9,75P=B53h5j.850VkuV35Q39*
/)]GG ^N4?75'304?7x0A•3x
xC53'•':676685953‘'•N7533VBV5'3
=E8V.€85?$N5E5@755p5'53"6C53{7<
+0=3<B"rr3o3H<P.C?3@-xC535'3
2.5. Đo lường các chỉ số bộ ba bất khả thi của nhóm tác giả Aizemman, Chinn và Ito
năm 2008
@?0"Q5qC53P=B5'676685953N3<R5]GGD^
?}VB55'3@GK5"r??@?B3BE?7?70nV53h5j]+R^No?$5p3B]\;^
<73nV53P]SZ%\^
3B?0"QBC53:6766859535/3<R5N75=

3E=….CB5"r?9Ba
 43?70nV53h5j?si<r3E?7?70nV:'"#
5-Cukierman và công sự (1992)?}?"'m=R.A<5PVBV0g]?70nV<h
w5VBV0g^N=?0m=<h5p0j5B36o3jE<C5?'
"#]?70nV5'5A54^Bm=?"u75=3E=….CNŒ&
YB/<!BXF/X]GGc^N390=]GGD^N'[/<+/./]GG ^NW'//'<7=A
]GGD^N3S0V.<S.)3]G^
 Rose (1996)?hd85?0"Q?70nV53h5j6•Bd/VE:5p
3B3?B3<r3x5?o35'=0"uN0}3=85<53h3?3<r3
53hNV"#VBV0&3"u?3@095@V63j5?"u5'5A54
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [12]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
?075l=<l=(53h5jN"3?43?$5?70"5,53h
5j09,?o3
 Obstfeld, Jay C. Shambaugh và Taylor (2005)?hd85?0"Q?70nV53h5j
.A<E5?o3:0}3=85.i&3NV"#VBV
Ž5'}3<-m.A:4<5'A3B93'•P=B53h5j:
4.A<E0}3=85C53#0.A5'=0"u53h5j
 @?B3BE?7o?$5A54:5p3BN75=5B3=….C,-
s3F545P.A5/5p3B5'?o353h5jvN?"u=….C?(536z3
Haldane và Hall (1991)N=??"uVo6346z32'9/0<_/3]9@5q??"u30
,-2'9/01_/3^O(?B?0"QŽ?"u<n.C5'x
3E:B5B39B"Bénassy-Quéré, Coeuré, và Mignon (2006), Shah,
Zeileis và Patnaik (2005), Frankel và Wei (2007)
 Lane và Milesi – Ferretti (2006)?hd85?0"Q73nV53P5'5A54
6•5p0j5ou<53="r35'B55B3?0"Q5o
0"uu<53="r35'B55BN5=„58?"uE?793@
=B5<5'5A54F3??5/?o3
 Aizenman, Chinn và Ito (2008)VB55'3@755nVuVs3hm=]3./d^
:0g545676685953?@?0"QE?7:†3G5'GK0AP

=B?}?"u5A535'Bh9354….Cxm=NB5B3?}
93@5'd/l5"#F545P<r39,<dB?$'•
75=A5?o35'75634:676=„'75=A5?o3?3<r363@3j?3
0nV5'5'6-5'=:G634|0&33h?i0"0g545?}.A
?BNBh9354V3?3w5<r3<3j6•GK0AP=B?@?&5?"u
945uV5585w63j5N3E?}58GK5"r?5"#F
545P<r3
 Dorrucci, Meyer-Circel và Santabarbara (2009)?}?B3BE?773nV
53P6•<3jVB55'3@75#=z.x03j<h=AVB55'3@9<A53P
2.2.1. Thước đo của bộ ba bất khả thi
2.2.1.4. Độc lập tiền tệ (Monetary Independence - MI)
+E?7?70nV53h5j?"u?0"Q6•$?:E5"#F
•:0}3=855B3xF3=z5&3<F3#=z+RnB3B
5'$’GN“N+R534<hi0P=B53h5j?70nV#
3
N
4
m=E?7?70nV53h5jdB?$6•,5Ea
3
m=?"u05'|6BBV.C5'6-5'"u5K•6s•5'"rN•3j5&3<•94534V]5
1N5N5”^:F=B5
4
5B30"g75?3hF5'<hm=3<r375="r<z75=•N0}3=85?"u.k
?@5Pm=+R5"Q9,?o30E5"#F•:0}3=853xF3=z5&3<F3
#=z]'']3
3
N3
T
^^9,dB?$?"u'"QuV5B3d/]'']3
3

N3
T
^^ŠGN.?m=+R6•
Gcl55@i'•P=B0}3=85?$075.83j:?70nV53h5j3N9
•0F3=z5&3=….Cx,C9B?@5A53P=B53h5j5<-=….C,C0}3=85
]<P.C"=….C5p0j.A5'x6567wBV453P^!3jŽ99•5B35'
<3j?0"Q+R!-54N5B39,5@5975BPdB<?(?:B.x03?@5P5B
m=+RW?N5'5'"QuVNd/+R3B5'$0Gc0uV0g
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [13]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
'?a
” 3a0F3=z5&3N
” Ta0F3#=z
/3<R5N.x03j0}3=85?"u085q953PF54:
R+2]>Ge2•^3<r3xF30}3=855$5'"Q9,w'85&
45-.x03j=„?"u6o=5q)}53P06/'5/5qFg]>G•e2•^
<0}3=8553h…35qR2]>GLe2^
2.2.1.5. Ổn định tỷ giá (Exchange Rate Stability - ERS)
7o?$5p3BP0?70j‚:5p3BN?"u5P5/•.A5'
.x03j5p3B†35B5"#E3xF3=z5&3<F3#=z7o?$5p
3B•3x3B5'$G<N\;534<h5-5p3Bo?$
\;?"udB?$5/,5E=a
B?0"Q?7o?$5p3B=„3lVl5dB?$?"uE?7o?$
:5p3B5'5A5475F3?BV.CE9,V3.A5'P=B
5p3BF3?56
4m?#5(BV.C,5E5-m=?0"Q?7o?$5p3B
d"r'85y3hi0=„V?&3E?703&5:5p3BN?w
63j50935p3B.?75'7563?7–V"0&39,?"u?$3B0&3
5"Qd
c

W?N5B3BV.C75"ˆ3B5'$5p3B04
E?7.?75B:5p3B3?B35'63?7”—GKK˜5-5p3B?"u
d/0?$<\;Š
2.2.1.6. Hội nhập tài chính (KAOPEN)
'Bm=?0"Q676685953N9850?0"QE?773
nV53PN5E0?0"QE?775F353493@=B5<
3N<3j?0"QE?793@=B5<'85VE5&V<-'8595@n.3j<
0"u585x-5E93@=B5<5'5A54Œ&NF35
56z…5$5'"Q<6•xP=B9B5,5B"5'
5A540&393@=B5<6•x63jVBV3B534V9Bm=?7z539
<?"u5r33h853jP0SZ%\.3<R5?hd85
SZ%\  ?"u  3  <  R5  ?h  nV  0(  ?(  53  •  GG>  ]Y'0  U
W/</0V/5\3=^3<R5]GG>NGGDNGG`^?"'?hd85=….C?7
z539<SZ%\?@?0"QE?773nV53P.A5'5,53
5'6BB•<h#45p3B<x&4&33.R+2VB5
]S0;/V'5\d/S''//5=.\d/;/=5'353=S;\S\;^W
?NSZ%\5875F3<hw5VBV0g]./T'/^534P=B?
5
'5'"QuVNE5?o35'6-5B:5p3B3?B3=„6v?4Ex5?o3
y5'5p3B5@0?70j‚0r<.?\;3B5'$y
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [14]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
5p3B9,1?0.&#4750&35p3BBV.C3.$5'53
9<}03<750&35p3BBV.C53<+75F3<r3P=B?5p
3BŽ?si<r3<3j?5A3jx63jVBV93@=B5<
 B<r3m=?7z539<5'5A54.L/<+30/=32/''/553
]GG>^?hd85Nm=SZ%\558?7z…539<5/VBV0g.A
5'6BB:B"rR+2N_Bm=9354<i,03F?493@=B5
<<&333<-m=5'5A54.6$B5<i,9B5B?7
5B3?}F45?$=….Cm=5'VBV0g?@3Ex

C53P=B:B"r
>

m=SZ%\634535'’GN“N3B5'$:m=58
F3z…#<r3x3.$<dF35B3=….C.x
03j:DF3]9,6s+™^5'=533?&` GGG`
SZ%\"u?3@09,VB?lEx-.3'5'5A
54N850<3j9<A5"5-3B5'BvB63jVBV93@=B5<:
PV:C5@0B=3=559•5'B55BF54N
.€?4B=3=0.9<A.3jV5-B@53h
d633r3<-3hC?P9B75="u?3@"m=
SZ%\?"u3h9354?B3B?}VB?"uBC53P=B
F5'75F35/?o35'FB5'-73nV53P
Sự tương quan giữa chỉ số KAOPEN với
các chỉ số đo lường mức độ hội nhập tài chính khác
Các chỉ số khác
Tương quan
với chỉ số
KAOPEN
Phạm vi lấy mẫu Ghi chú
Quinn (1997) DKN`
`c  `` a    F  3
,3jV
`cDN` KN`D<`DDa
MGF39vVB55'3@
Wx  03j  ?"u  E  n  6z3
S;\S;  5'"r  ``>N  6o  =
5,53<hB3jV"rF54
<r3B5oE<F39B
Mini DGN `DKGGMaKMF3

WA  < 6  03j5 9K3
.$539<=3``><
&3=<h`DK
Dữ liệu AREAER sau
1996
D ``cGGcaDF3
L85'6-:K3.$
539<
k1 (đa tỷ giá) KDNM `> GGcaDF3 34$V
k2 (giao dịch trên tài
khoản vãng lai)
DND `> GGcaDF3 34$V
k3 (giao dịch trên tài
khoản vốn)
DK `> GGcaDF3 34$V
K4 (giao nộp số ngoại tệ
thu được)
DD `> GGcaDF3 34$V
Kaminsky và Schmukler
(2003)
c N> ` KGGGaDF3 WA<659B63j
VBV  93@  =B5  5'a  ]^  5$
6
"r??7z539<5'VBV0gŽxw5&485?$/\.['.=]```^N5'"Q
uV5"Q5809<A5"VB<ˆx&45'539<N0<,3j5B.C:x
63jVBV93@=B5<)#xNx634=:R+25P5ouVN9,5@VB?"u455q
35345:x63jVBV93@=B5<5'5A54"0"r:.|<].|<.|'^Ž
"B0&33.$53PC53
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [15]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi

5'"Q53P73?$N]^3
.$539<N]K^5$5'"Q
<
Kaminsky và Schmukler –
trọng tâm các giao dịch
trên tài khoản vốn
> N> ``>GGc
]^ msB3.$  53
9<
Kiểm soát dòng vốn đi vào
– Potchamanawong (2007)
>N
``cGGMa>F3r3
o3
WA<5,535qS;\S\;
<hD3 .$ 53 9<
=``>N<.A5'93@=B5
<?"uBV.C<r3.|<
<'
Kiểm soát dòng vốn đi ra –
Potchamanawong (2007)
GND
``cGGMa>F3r3
o3
WA<5,535qS;\S\;
<hD3 .$ 53 9<
=``>N<.A5'93@=B5
<?"uBV.C<r3.|<
<'
2.2.2. Tương quan tuyến tính giữa các chỉ số bộ ba bất khả thi

!3jV5PGKm=6766859535/5Q33=„l53h
5,53<h=A5?o35'V"#"rP=B<i,5'543r3N""
54<€"5@3j?"uF0n5:NF0n5<h=A?B?o33xB634=<i
,W3@#?P0=A534C5,CF0g<i,5@3jF=A=C53
5'7563403h<r3676685953Œ&73nV53P#N?o3
0&3o?$5p3B58V#Nw?70nV53h5jP5#Nw945uV33

@
5'B0g54593?3@<h676Ž9,5@3j75B'•'<h3F
jW?N5B3Ž?}5A3j7593@?$?(?:<h=A?B?o3
6•Bs3F33Fj545P3x6634P=BN<3?$'•5o
5p5':6634075•=4E?7VkuV:,-s3F3Ni
05s5&375#4?B?o3<hw55p5'3xBm=!45"#F0
545PNB3B5'$"r0"u=„.?7F3B5'$"u0&3N49,5s
5&3Fj?B?o35-w0g545676685953=3Nw0FjV354
1=
T5@0B"rRWNLWw\;+
B945Fs3F:5B3=„?"ul5,35'-6zV(534V
5/N"5'"r53NB945F?}VV(9Œ?$'•75F3.k
9,ŽV3?E5'"r75=A?B?o3'd545(3j
9373nV53P0?3h5854NK=A0A#6:6766859
53B"r"r?4?0a]^5p3B?$<73nV53Pš]^5p3B5
o3<73nV53P<]K^4?75'3
& 0 8>))*
!r3C?P5&'B3/.i?@:3h53:5$5'"Q<3B
5'$?s735j<93h40&VB5N5p3B?$945uV<r373nV53P0„0
75=A0A53"BF3?V3?3w5<r3755p0j0&VB5N
?w63j50?3<r3xF33h53:5$5'"Q<xB3/.
i9B?}6$855P3jš<P.C"B3/9m0n55399,?"uPV:
7

3N93=A35•5'm=:75634685953N?si<r3<3j75=A=C535'
6346859535ENw6345EKNw3
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [16]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
d/5'3N5'75=5'"QuV935-5'&<,9m0n5539FB
35'N:0&VB5d85VB55qxl=5's
]3B03jN0"#5A5•0^Nw53h35•FBEN850?@535'u
x"#5'-353:PV:5-B3/.i:5p3BŽ
90|3lVF3?5@93h40&VB5<o?$<i,!r3=A0A
P=BN'•'PV:?}85?35P?70nV5'<3j5A53B,C
:P=B53h5jm|5',Q<35B.C:P=B539?@5A
3jP=BV9*5'?3h93j5C5=B9,V30<8?h
0??(B0P=B:F3
; 0 31>))*
!r3=A0AN5p3B5o3=„3lVPV:5@:?7=….C
x,CP=B53h5jV9*N<58535p3B0l9,|0
B3/.i<<-<nNh93545@'#3<B36€0&VB5465
P=B53h5j9,?:&?@5&'B3/.iO33VBV<8?h
05k57<P=B0&VB5C53<5P?70nV:)_
3N4.|<?o<FBEN850<5$5'"QE
9B<685?7==„.€?45p3B5A?"u?$3BFB]?s735j03B^
=„.€?45C5539<}03<.€?4#9:7593.|
<?3hP=B5p3BP503&5k<r3<3j?$3B58V?s735j
5@35•d859‚534?4=A35•5'534593j<?(5"•5•5'"z
9354+w59BN=A=CV?o:4?75p3B5o395'B9y393wVV375l
=5q79:53P:B"r5'9<A5B?7d8?4j
553PN5•5p0j0&VB5<vs0A:F3NP<-<n
3h9354'•N3h93<3j?B?o3:P=B5p3B5o3?@
?"u?70nV53h5j9,0&3945FF3
R SL7

4?75'35@3@0a75#45p3B03&55E5p3B5o3
F0gN945uV<r3E5A:5"#?3<h53h5jN<5A.53P"9,
F93@=B5<i0PV:=„5A3j75=63jVBV93@=B5.|
<•5&?3h93j?@5A53P=B53h5jŽ"5'3@93P=B5p
3B75B:?7Œ&<r3C5393h30&VB5N)_=„3
53hw5•0}3=85N"<r3?75B335•0}3=85=„0.|<"r
3?o<3h#N?3h?=„0?s735j5•3B3?PV:=„BV
?w5x63jVBV93@=B5.|<<N?@3x5p3Bo?$w5,F
<3j93@=B5<PV:<€5@:?7?@5p3B.?75'7563
?785?$@?&5?"uxC53?N6&<3jPV:(x
,C93@=B5.|<75B3jF<5A:N5-?|3y3V3759.A
5'x&33?:0r?@0&3xl=93.|<?3h?7575'
x5?o36850u3<h5p3B
2.2.3. Tác động của sự lựa chọn chính sách bộ ba bất khả thi đến hiệu quả vĩ mô
của nền kinh tế
,F,-s3F33Fj545P3xKm=676685953N
l5m5@58?"u?$"rP=B:BF3N530&3
9,58?"u?70A.€?4x5?o35'P=B?!-54N6•
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [17]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
V"#VBV93540"u5B3Ž?}53493@3j5A54?@d/
†3=A945uV5'P=B676685953=„5B?7"54?43j
F<i,:h9354C5@z?5B3d/dv535"#F3x67
6685953<r3634?7=0"uN634?70&VB5N<5p0j0&VB55'&
?0,-#65B3"r0"u.A5'a
‡
35
?0"Q3jF<i,:F335&35Q335C5@#N‡
35
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0"Q634?7=0"u]=….C6=03j%/_'0.>^šw634?7:
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2.6. Phương pháp nghiên cứu chế độ tỷ giá - mô hình Frankel-Wei
3E58N5'5nV9pFN5'5A54'853hh93545A
3j4?75p3B3?B39B<r34?75p3B3?B3'"#
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.C3h5n55B?.&x67.x03j'853hE.CxP
53lŽx&45'<3j?B3B?w?3@<85'l:4
?75'3!P.C"N;/3'5<;UU'•?s;V//{7?"u"r
5r3?3h5/P=B5p3B3?B3?$9@5q•``KN"5/63
3E5-{7?}5A34?75'39@5q•``KNP?3h
3lVF0gB3-'•'#<58?"u5(F5':4?75p
3B3?B3<9P=B53h5j
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [18]
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Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
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545P5'#=z5p3Bv3xB?s53h]<r3?s53h5'3VkuV^
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<n.CV"#VBV?B3B5@9@?4"v==v'vN/'v<
+3]GG>^NNe/30/3=<%539]GGc^<2'9/0<_/3]GG ^!P.CN
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/']\œ;^"755,=?0"Q6859*5',-s3F'5'"QuV
NV"#5'-s3F5@0a
%"#5'-s3F58E?7.?75p3B:R;—)25?o3
"545/.?75'5p3BœW—)24?s;V//{7]R;^
?$=<r3?s,0+™]œW^N.?75'5p3B?sn5]Y%‡^<?s
'9E]W\+^=„6•G4R;9,/?$<œWNGKj=•=„9BG
;

5'V"#5'-s3F534<hN4?75p3B?$

@dB?$4?75p3B5'5A54:75F385?$5'75
95Q3385?$NB3E<B<35@nVV"#5'-
s3F<…=o.x03jw'003.5[3.[=3NV"#VBV
"5@?"'759450nP5E<hx5?o35'4?75p3B3h
5l?‚7573E93540"uz'7?3<r3=A5?o35'85'l
•V5P=A5?o3<h85'l5',-2'9/0_/3?"u5A3j6z3
e/30/3=N<%539•GGD3E6sV"#VBV%/''3
]GGK^F/57•dB?$5Q33=A5?o3<h85'l5',-
ZLs3Fl55nV5'<33?&=•` ><=….C=A634?o3
5(:5p3B?@"r0"ux3B5'$5@3j5'.8w0=03j
595
'†3F3Nl5303h33?&'†333?&N;

5'V"#5'-s3F?"ud/"0=03j595ouV=A03&5:
5p3B3?B3O3B5'$(5-<3j/5p3Bw5„p3B5o33B
5'$5qGNMGNc
….CV"#VBVNl55@a
 0"Q<?$0"u85'l:4?75p3B5'36•B?0"Q
3B5'$5A54:=A?$:5p3B3?B3];

5'V"#5'-s3F^N?3h
5875B'•'<h<3j?0"Q=A03&55A54:5p3B3?B3
 ƒB?$5Q3?3@4?75p3B5?o3B3=….C=A5?o35/
V(5'•:5p3B3?B35(N=03j5?"u5qx5p3B5
?o35'5(,F?Nl555nV=03j<h5P03&5:5p3B5'
75†35Q335&3BF3<3B5'$;

=„E3x?3@5Q3
3?
 ƒB?$=0(<5Q3?3@5?o34?75p3B.A<945F5?"u

III. PHƯƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [19]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
3.3. Phương pháp nghiên cứu
(1) Thước đo bộ ba bất khả thi của Chinn-Ito
(2) Phương pháp nghiên cứu chế độ tỷ giá (mô hình Frankel - Wei)
(3) Phương pháp tiếp cận của chỉ số Lane và Milesi-Ferretti (2006)
m=:L/<+30/=32/''/553?0"Q930"uu<53="r3
5'B55B3?0"Q5ou<53="r35'B
55BN5=„58?"uE?793@=B5<5'5A54F3?5/?o3
 %"#VBV?0"Q:G5B3.A5'GB"r0"ua
” 'A534Va5B308=03j<hB6BB:B5oE53P9354
543r3"R+2N_<:B"r3E
” O3B534Va5'3h5'"QuV534<=03jw=03j9,?s
85N5B3=….CV"#VBV.|5P0™<r33B5'$5•5]i0=…
.CV"#VBV"r0"uN59?@5P5Bd/=03jFB•5•3
63˜5q?"r?B?"u3B5'$:B•=wB•|534^
 u"r3?"u35GM9Ca
” (5".CaE9B<<E9Bu]5'B3V34<B,
Cu5$5'"Q^
” (5"5'A534Va?(5"r3<?(5"Fh93@=B553=
” (5"9BaB,Cu<5P.C5"#&3
” E9BVB5=3
 3="r335Gc9CaGM9C5"#5Au"r
3759C.A5'xP5E
 B=03j06•Em=73nV53P5'5A54a
” •E5q5oB.|?4OW%ap=5"#&3—OW%?"u
?$i05od859‚<nV9‚N?"u5@3j."r3.&V(5'•
:OW%p=?0"Q=Az…:5"#&3+75V(z'7?#3
:g5"z05p=3x5oB.|<d633r35'B55B

]Z%^=<r3OW%p0j?0"Q=A73nV53PB=03j=A.C:
405qR+2N<_
” m=VB55'3@:53PF3a3d/dv5<h<3j3jF
93@=B5<.?3jF93@=B5<0'85F5'?@?B3B5--53
P:"r%5Pm=5-633E?}=….C6BB59
:W''3N+//'3'/0N<56'6']GG`^x"Q3?}VB55'3@75
#=z.x03j<h6?3h93@VB55'3@53P5'>h9354r3o3#=z
.x03j5-6s585Bh93:S=3]&35'q!3j5^B=
03j?"u=….CŽ?"u085qR+2<_5'95Q335q•GGG
GGD
3.4. Phạm vi nghiên cứu
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [20]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
 ,3a6sh9354zH]{7N'N)s,N
3LN3V'/N+0=3NB3LNR./=3N%303VV3/=N!3j5<)
^w63j55nV5'<GKh93540r855'IS=3J6s{7N
'<)
 Q33a03j03F:4085q•` G?4•GG`
 35"u3EaH?"#?(<r3676685953
IV.NỘI DUNG VÀ CÁC KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU
4.4. Kiểm soát vốn
@?0"QE?793@=B5.|<E?773nV53P:B
"rHN5B3.kG,CaG,C?@.E?773nV53P5/
VBV0g]5/56P5E^<G,C?@?E?773nV53P
5'5A54:Bh9354
4.1.3. Mức độ tự do chu chuyển vốn theo tuyên bố của các quốc gia
B365?(<r3<3j,593@=B5<5/56B"rS=3
5'35"#F<r3V(|0&3:543r3B3=….C67#=z.x03j:
3R5]GGD^?}d.A?@?B3BE?793@=B5<:B"rS=3
.A5'5,535'6BB•<h#45p3B<x&4&33

.R+2VB5
D
#=z.x03j5875=?3@•?3<r35qh
9354N<r3B3B5'$5qND]?3<r3Bh9354B539<5
9vV9PE^?4”NcK]?3<r3Bh93549BB539<55A
.^+w.k5"Q?"u=….C?@?B3B<3j5A3j93@=B5<<hw5
VBV0g"67.x03j:3R5<€x&485?$E85N67.x
03j9,65?(?:?"u<3jr30y.(93@=B5<N<-54534V5C
?"'xm=35'q93585B&4?"u0&36yE3Nm=
5•?B9@?3<r3(45B"r,3jV5'x•(?N93?"
'B63jVBV6?503F?4V|'…53hN9:6
53PN<B63jVBV03F
Hình 4: Mức độ mở cửa tài khoản vốn của tất cả các nền kinh tế
trong năm 1970 và năm 2007
TU5V5BW)=3>8DU3 =L
@XDSY5&Z'@[5)7">)Y5;''Z@[5)7
\S3';@[7P';P]O'&P]V>X5^ @X_
@5BW)=3>8>)'&P]V>X5^ @X_@P
W)=3>8`<7T)@567L7<3* aP
@^bA2cC7DS
8
!P.C"%BV]755'x"r,3jV3k5A3jz…539<^
3B5'$5•5qN ?3@]•` G^?4NcK?3@]•``c^+755P.C9B0R'='/0NB3B5'$
5qNK]•`` ^?4cK]•GGM^
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [21]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
/7TIS;''d>)* D 3
B#=z.x03j3R558'•5'x•FN5'5A54
<3j6}36y93@=B5539<?}.3'5'5543r3)-M58E
?7z…539<:585Bh93545/5"r?3R55'G•

]•` G<•GG ^'G•?hGV?mNGV?mE
<r3755nVuVB"r("z…539<<GV?mE<r375
5nVuVB"r("?…539<3h5875=A5?o3
5'93@=B5<5q("?…=("z…539<m
:?"Qn5?75'•` GdF3B5'$N•GG ?m58V
#3h=<r3•`` N=AV6?h#N=0"uBF
3?<z…539<("6•
Hình 5: Tiến trình mở cửa tài khoản vốn của các nước Asia 11
so với thế giới
`<7T< 7%e67 Y5@XDS8
>X @X,2&&:N5)7"<"7@XD)_7O=N
5)7\<"7@X7D @X,2&&+L673UOC
f5_gO]28>5V)*D @X,2&&h_A2
>XLX7)@^"7@X@XgD @XSg7i7
=]@X/e7O67%<7TP<=L7O"j>5k7%e1<
e,2&&))A2>X @XlLX
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [22]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
/7TIS;''d>)* D 3
#=z.x03j:3R55,53N=03j:h93545'S=3N
&35'q3L]6z3<-s<:3L:4s<@?o3^W
?NB5,53N=03j:S=3'l5'5q#=#.x03j:3R50"P
dB)-c58d"r5A.539<6-F:S=3]9,
6s3L^<543r35/V"#VBV3R5!hw5VBV0gN5&3?3@65
?(<?3@9455lNE?75A.539<6-F:S=35"#5A
<r3E5'6-:543r33N7533?&EE?75A.53
9<6-F:S=3#E5'6-:543r3N93B"r
5A3jr30y93@=B5<C5@0NB"rS=35/?o3P=B
949PB.|<.3&"(5"5'A534V"r3]2WR^N75<3F
35'S=3&4B.|<&'?5@9@?4{7<r3

x†0A5'<3j&4B9u&
58E5A.539<:{7N'N)
<E6-F:S=35/V"#VBV3R5'93m=:'
<{7.5'-zENKN5-)0&3d"r634?7'"r93
9:53PHd'N<3j5A.539<?}0m=:
)5qNK5•0GNG`5'•``c3N•``>Nm=3
5'z0&3ENKN<9,5?o3?493)F5'z0&35A3j5A.
539<5'z•GG4•GG N)?&5?"u3B5'$GNDN5
3"r<€534V5C?EVP=B"rZ\W<h73nV53P
+E?7z…5399<6-F:S=35•&5qGNG
]•` G^0?4GN`>]•`Dc^9:53PHN<3j93@=B5
<0&353450nV<E5'6-3d|GNM5'•``DO3B5'$GN`>
5'"r9:<€"?&5?"u9@5q?3NFB5'-73nV53P
:Bh9354H5'x•(?5@9,?"uVB5'
V"#VBV:3R5.=A5?o35'?$iV"#VBVNŽ"
9,9•65xr30y5'93@=B5<9,03F?4
<3j0&36y5x&4
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [23]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
Bảng 1: Quá trình tự do hóa tài khoản vốn của Ấn Độ, Trung Quốc,
và Hàn Quốc, mức bình quân của Asia 11 theo phương pháp Chinn-Ito
`3)U67 e?P)=3>8DmO07n78O>)
()n78O22 >X5V%e67gD,2&&
S ]28@A SDm>)07n787e_
@=a1B&O&RO@AV>X@[^o_7@PW=Lp0
=B()n78Oa%8D678)e=<52 >8h17
_$7=D3)*Sg7iO()n78LQ7e]28B5V&O&R
LY5;'''O7lLY5;''Ze]28)hYl5V'O&d3
@BD>?P)=3>8
Năm

Ấn
Độ
Trung
Quốc
Hàn
Quốc
Trung bình
của Asia 11
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Chênh lệch 2000-2007 0 0 1.31 -0.13
/7TIS;''d>)* D 3
4.1.4. Mức độ tự do chu chuyển vốn trên thực tế
4.1.2.4. Tính theo Tổng sản phẩm quốc nội (GDP)

p=5"#&3—OW%?"u?$i05o0"ud85nV9‚346
3˜:OW%N5p=?0"QE?7z…:5"#&3ž5"z
?"uVB55'3@?@?0"QE?773nV53P6•5p=3x5oB.|<
53Pd633r35'B55B]Z%^5'OW%
•93@=B55p3B3?B3:'"#VC57<
930"u.|<F633r3B"r5'B5$5'"Q&33@
3.$'|5'•N55BnV9‚N93&d859‚<B.|53
PŽ"z?45p3BW|<6s539<}03
<B3.$539N3.$539<}030rg73nV53
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [24]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
P='7N.@.$<F633r35,F5"#&353@
&%539N/V5N<]GG`^?}m''•93B539<}03
0r5-5"#&353@&d'N?3h99•5'<3j93@=B5
</B3Er3:%539<5-B,5?F3?75
<35'|?B9@5'<3j73nV53P:Bh9354B633E
03F9B?}8&03945G3h3x<3jz…539<<53
9<}03]S3X/]GGK^šS3X/<]GGM^^!-54l5,3F=B5
5oB.|5"#&3<539<"075B?0"Q=A73nV
5(:75h93543h?"5"#&3<73nV53P<
539
)->58FB5'-5(5/5Q335&39<AS=3]9,
6s!3j5N.9,.x03j^!3jz…539<0OW%5'
6-5•5q9GG˜]•``D^09>G˜]•GGD^B3B5'$5'
6-=30j5•06z3=A3j.3j:Bh9354y<73nV="
3V'/<)s,
Hình 6: Giá trị trung bình của các dòng vốn luân chuyển/GDP của Asia 11
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Bảng 2: Tổng dòng vốn luân chuyển/GDP của Ấn Độ, Trung Quốc và Hàn Quốc
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [25]